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Archives for December 2021

Padres Sign Domingo Leyba To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed infielder Domingo Leyba to a minor league contract, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com. As is the case with other players who have signed minors deals during the lockout, Leyba opened the offseason as a minor league free agent after being outrighted off the Orioles’ 40-man roster in August.

Leyba, 26, has suited up in a pair of MLB seasons. He broke in with the Diamondbacks in 2019 and appeared in 21 games that year. He missed the abbreviated 2020 campaign on the restricted list but returned with Arizona in 2021. He was designated for assignment in early June and claimed off waivers by the Orioles, but Baltimore waived him themselves and released him not too long after. While he hooked on with the Rangers on a minors pact for the stretch run, Leyba didn’t get to the big leagues in Texas.

Between the D-Backs and O’s, the switch-hitting Leyba has played in 55 big league games. Over 126 plate appearances, he’s managed just a .152/.238/.222 line with one home run. Yet the Dominican Republic native has a far better track record in the minors. He’s a .304/.346/.537 hitter in two Triple-A seasons and owner of a .279/.352/.404 mark across three years at Double-A.

Leyba will presumably get an opportunity in big league Spring Training to compete for a utility role. He’s got minor league experience at both middle infield spots, although he’s primarily functioned as a second baseman or third baseman in the big leagues. The Padres already have ample talent around the dirt, with Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar on hand to back up Jake Cronenworth, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado. They’ve recently subtracted from that group by moving Adam Frazier to Seattle, though, and there’s no downside in adding to the organizational depth by bringing Leyba in on a non-roster deal.

Central Notes: Ross, Cubs, Twins, Martin

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In a piece for The Chicago Tribune, Meghan Montemurro recaps David Ross’s first full season managing the Cubs. The turbulent season saw Ross’s Cubs cruise through the early months before a midseason collapse led to a July fire sale. The skipper notes that he was prepared for the club to eventually retool with younger players, but that even he was surprised by the exodus of Cubs veterans on July 31. Ross quipped “I don’t think in my mind I ever thought it was going to be one day,” referencing how the retooling effort was seemingly confined to a single day. The leaner club finished with a 71-91 record and a fourth place finish, a far cry from the team’s first place performance in 2020. Still, Ross relishes the chance to grow as a manager now that Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez likely won’t be holding down the fort with him. The manager’s open-mindedness, combined with his year one success, is part of why Montemurro reminds that Ross is likely to maintain control of the dugout for some time. Ross is guaranteed to be the Cubs manager through 2022, with a 2023 club option, but there is mutual interest in extending those terms. With some contention-minded moves already made, a David Ross extension would be another sign the club is looking to make the playoffs with a new core in place.

Some more from baseball’s central divisions…

  • The Cubs are ramping up their efforts to develop homegrown pitching reports Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The organization was hit with a number of pitching injuries in the minor leagues, with most of the team’s best pitching prospects sidelined at some point this year after last year’s cancelled minor league season. President Jed Hoyer is reluctant to attribute these injuries to increased workloads however, acknowledging that there are a number of ways the organization can help its players better stay on track. To that end, the Chicago organization has hired former MLB pitchers Craig Breslow, Daniel Moskos, and Danny Hultzen to further develop the game plans used by young pitchers as they come up through the system. Under Vice President of Pitching Breslow’s watch, the Cubs pipeline has already started showing improvement. Despite the swath of recent injuries, many of the players who were healthy enough to pitch this past season found improved velocity under the new pitching regime. More work will need to be done before any young player can be fast-tracked to the Majors, but the authors note that any homegrown Cub who breaks through to the big leagues as a pitching fixture will be the first to do so since Jeff Samardzija debuted in 2008.
  • Hopping to the AL Central, where the Twins are dealing with a rare prospect surplus on the heels of their Byron Buxton extension. Writing for The Athletic, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman discuss whether top shortstop/center field prospect Austin Martin can be flipped to acquire a pitcher that will help a Twins rotation short on experience. It would be a short stay in the Minnesota system for Martin, a top-30 prospect who was just acquired in July’s Jose Berrios deal, if he’s dealt. Hayes reasons that the Twins have a dire need for pitching, and speculates that acquiring Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle of the Reds, or Frankie Montas of the A’s would provide a more immediate benefit to a team looking to contend. Neither writer is convinced Martin should be traded, considering the two players ahead of him on the depth chart (Buxton in center field and top-30 prospect Royce Lewis at shortstop) are hardly locks to stay healthy or productive. Still, with the Twins surprising inactivity in the free agent pitching market, both writers agree a lot of work needs to be done to have the pitching staff match a strong position player group.

Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration

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Outfielder Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers have avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year $17MM contract per ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel. This deal registers as a $900K raise on the player’s 2021 season. The deal was reached prior to the sport’s December 1 lockout, but was not officially announced due to the league’s mandate that prevents clubs from discussing player personnel.

The $17MM salary is quite a boon for a player coming off a season that was below replacement-level, as Bellinger slashed just .160/.240/.302 in 95 injury-plagued games. The Dodgers could have non-tendered Bellinger instead of paying such a handsome fee for a hopeful bounceback campaign, but are one of the few clubs in the league who have the payroll to support such a risk.  Further, Bellinger’s salary isn’t guaranteed until he makes the team’s Opening Day roster, meaning there’s still time for the team to backpedal if they lose faith in their decision.

It’s not long ago that non-tendering Cody Bellinger would’ve seemed preposterous, considering Bellinger set an arbitration record after his MVP 2019 season. That .305/.406/.629 campaign is slipping further into the past, but the Dodgers were surely encouraged by Bellinger’s .353/.436/.471 showing this past postseason. The former-MVP can be controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.

Who’s Blocking Josh Jung?

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In the 2019 MLB Draft, the Texas Rangers used the eighth overall selection on Josh Jung, a third baseman from Texas Tech. They immediately put him to work, as Jung played 44 games in the lower levels of the Rangers’ system that year as a 21-year-old. He played well and things looked promising, as Baseball America ranked him the #93 prospect in all of baseball heading into 2020.

Of course, 2020 brought the pandemic and all levels of the minor leagues were canceled, putting a dent in the plans of prospects all across the sport. As things were ramping back up for 2021 and they were all hoping to get back on track, Jung hit another setback. In March, he underwent surgery for a stress fracture in his foot, which was expected to lengthen his absence from organized baseball for another six to eight weeks.

Despite those setbacks, once Jung was finally healthy, he made up for lost time in a big way, finishing 2021 on an incredible tear. He finally made his season debut in Double-A on June 15th and played 43 games at that level, hitting .308/.366/.544, wRC+ of 140. He was promoted to Triple-A on August 20th and somehow hit even better. In 35 games for the Round Rock Express, his slash line was .348/.436/.652, wRC+ of 166. That strong finish to his campaign has launched him all the way up to #27 on Baseball America’s list.

At the big league level, the Rangers limped to the end of the 2021 season with a record of 60-102, with only the Orioles and Diamondbacks beneath them. As the offseason began, it seemed that the path was wide open for Jung to waltz onto the roster and make his MLB debut in 2022. Down the stretch, the Rangers gave most of the playing time at third base to a hodgepodge of utility players, such as Yonny Hernandez, Brock Holt, Charlie Culberson and Andy Ibanez.

Since then, however, the Rangers have smashed open their piggy banks and completely changed their infield picture. They shocked the baseball world by signing not one but two of the five superstar shortstops from this year’s star-studded crop of free agents, giving out a ten-year, $325MM contract to Corey Seager and a seven-year, $175MM deal to Marcus Semien. With Seager and Semien now firmly planted in the middle of the infield, that means that incumbent shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been bumped into the third base slot.

Since then, Kiner-Falefa has been floated as a possible trade candidate for those teams that prefer to not spend big on the star shortstops that are still available in free agency, Carlos Correa and Trevor Story. The Yankees, for instance, are apparently leaning towards a short-term option to plug into shortstop until one of their own prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, take over the job. Kiner-Falefa is one option they’ve considered for such a task. But for now, he remains a Ranger, and can’t be moved until the lockout is concluded.

It’s widely expected that the lockout won’t be resolved any time soon, which will eventually lead to a situation where there is a quick turnaround from a new CBA being signed to the start of spring training, whether it’s on schedule or not. That will certainly lead to a wild flurry of transactions to be jammed into that window, as there are dozens of notable free agents still to be signed and many teams with trades to make. The Rangers could certainly try to trade Kiner-Falefa at that time, if they wish. However, they could also hang onto him and make use of his versatility to use him as a super utility option.

In 2021, Kiner-Falefa played 156 games, all at shortstop. But in previous seasons, he’s played third base, second base and catcher. His defense is a stronger calling card for him than his offense, as he’s yet to reach league average with his bat in any of his four seasons so far. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit .280/.329/.370 for a wRC+ of 94. In 2021, that slipped a bit to .271/.312/.357, wRC+ of 85. On the glove side, however, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both give him favourable rankings. Statcast’s Outs Above Average doesn’t really like his shortstop work, pegging him at -7 this year, but it’s graded him well at third and second in previous years.

Although one could argue Jung has a decent chance of being the better option right now, there’s always the elephant of the room with top prospects, where one has to consider the possibility that the Rangers may keep Jung in the minors just long enough to gain an extra year of control. (Assuming the service time rules don’t drastically change in the next CBA.) The club could potentially go into spring training with Kiner-Falefa at the hot corner until Jung is “ready” to be promoted, but that’s also not a guarantee. The Padres recently gave an opening day promotion to Fernando Tatis Jr., showing that service time manipulation isn’t always a certainty. Regardless of the timing, once Jung is promoted, Kiner-Falefa would make for a nice option off the bench, jumping into the lineup whenever one of the other infielders need a day off.

Whether Kiner-Falefa is involved or not, it seems that the future squad will be Jung, Seager, Semien and Nathaniel Lowe, giving the Rangers the potential to have an elite infield core for years to come, as they look to flip the script after five straight losing seasons and get back into being a powerhouse in the AL West.

Poll: Carlos Correa’s Contract

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There’s been plenty of speculation as to Carlos Correa’s next destination, and even as the lockout trudges on, some reporting on the interest he’s received to date. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves and incumbent Astros were all reported to have contacted Correa prior to the lockout, and in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Tigers had put forth a ten-year offer worth $275MM — presumably prior to signing Javier Baez to his six-year, $140MM contract. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago wrote yesterday that while there’s mutual interest with the Cubs, the team is loath to commit the length of contract Correa is seeking.

The length of contract Correa is set upon will obviously play a large role in where he ultimately signs. If he’s set on a deal of ten (or more) years in length, the Cubs and Astros seem to be out of the question. If he eventually is willing to take a slightly shorter deal, presumably with a massive annual value, it could open the door a bit further. Some suitors may yet may ramp up their interest or pivot to Correa if they miss out on larger target (e.g. Braves and Freddie Freeman) or if the luxury tax threshold rises substantially in the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement.

Given that he’s hitting the market in advance of his age-27 season, it’s not a surprise to see Correa eyeing deals of ten-plus years in length. And, now that Corey Seager has inked a 10-year deal for $325MM — joining Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstops with contracts of 10 or more years — Correa is surely hopeful of adding his own name to that prestigious group (if not besting all three in terms of total guarantee).

If the Yankees indeed plan to sit out the market for top shortstops, as has been reported, that’s a sizable blow to Correa’s market. Add that the Dodgers have an excellent in-house option already in Trea Turner and may not want to add a second $300MM contract to the books alongside Mookie Betts, and Correa may have to drum up some interest from teams that haven’t been publicly linked to him just yet.

The Phillies have a need at shortstop but appear more focused on center field and the bullpen. The Mets don’t seem like a fit in terms of roster composition, but owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend at a nearly unparalleled level. The Blue Jays reportedly pursued Seager before he signed in Texas; would they consider a legitimate pursuit of Correa in the wake of Marcus Semien’s departure? Could the Tigers follow the Rangers’ lead and shock baseball with a double-dip in the shortstop market? The Mariners haven’t been characterized as a suitor just yet, but they have the payroll space and are seeking an impact bat.

As the already slow news cycle winds down during the holiday season, let’s try to make our best guess both as to where Correa will sign and for how much in total dollars…

How large will Correa’s contract be? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Where will Correa sign? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Sung-bum Na Signs With KBO’s Kia Tigers

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The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced a six-year contract with free agent outfielder Sung-bum Na. The deal is worth $12.6MM, a figure that’s tied for the loftiest deal in KBO history (h/t to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap).

Na has appeared on major league radars in each of the past two offseasons. Na’s former team, the NC Dinos, made him available to big league clubs via the posting system last winter. His 30-day window to sign with an MLB team went without an agreement, though, and Na returned to the Dinos this past season.

This winter, Na qualified for domestic free agency in South Korea but remained one year away from unrestricted international free agency. Major League Baseball tendered a status check on Na last month, indicating that at least one major league team expressed interest in the left-handed hitter.

Obviously, Na’s deal with the Tigers forecloses the possibility of his making the jump to the big leagues this year. In all likelihood, it closes the books on any potential MLB future for Na, who turned 32 years old in October. The six-year term will keep him with the Tigers through the end of his age-37 campaign. It seems unlikely he’d make the move stateside at that point of his career.

Na has spent nine seasons playing in Korea’s top league. He’d spent his entire career to date with the Dinos, combining for an impressive .312/.378/.538 line. This past season, Na hit .281/.337/.506 with 32 home runs across 565 plate appearances. That’s not quite his peak form, although that output still checked in 24 points above the KBO league average by measure of wRC+.

2021 Leaguewide Player Payroll Reportedly Down 4% Relative To 2019

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According to a report from the Associated Press, major league teams spent approximately $4.05 billion on player payrolls in 2021. The AP indicates that’s a 4% drop relative to 2019 — the most recent 162-game season — and the lowest full-season tally since 2015’s $3.9 billion. In raw dollars, there was a $167.69MM drop in spending on players between 2019 and 2021, writes Maury Brown of Forbes.

It’s not surprising to see team spending dip. The 2020 season was played with essentially no fan attendance as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. A few ownership groups publicly lamented the loss of gate revenues last year, and free agent spending was chilled a bit last offseason. The value of the qualifying offer — calculated as the average of the 125 highest salaries around the league — also dipped from $18.9MM to $18.4MM between 2020 and 2021, suggesting that spending at the top of the market took a slight step back.

That said, attributing the spending downturn entirely to the pandemic feels a bit simplistic. According to the AP, the league record for player payrolls (a bit less than $4.25 billion) was set in 2017. The league saw slight reductions in spending on players in each of 2018 and 2019, although it had been slated for a new all-time high in 2020 before the season was shortened and player pay was prorated.

However much one wants to attribute the 2020-21 decrease in spending to the pandemic, those figures will no doubt be of interest to the player’s union. While spending at the top of the market took a small step back last year, there’s been a more dramatic decrease for the average player (from a salary perspective) over the past few seasons. In April, the Associated Press found that the median salary of Major League players has fallen 18% since 2019 and 30% since 2015.

That’s largely a reflection of how many teams have approached roster construction over the past few years. By and large, clubs have continued to pay big money for elite talent, but they’ve become more reluctant to invest in players with closer to average production. Star players have continued to set richer precedents and free agency was quite strong in the weeks leading up to the lockout, but the gap has widened between top-of-the-market stars and mid-tier veterans and young players. Recognizing that a roster can be built most cost-effectively by leaning on young talent, front offices in recent years have spent more heavily on premier players, knowing that they can rely on pre-arb players and non-star veterans making lower salaries to provide adequate value on the rest of the roster.

As Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post writes in a piece that’s worth checking out in full, the disconnect between stars, mid-tier veterans and young players presents a challenge in collective bargaining. The league has pointed to the top-end salaries as evidence of a robust economic system. In the letter he penned to fans following the lockout announcement, Commissioner Rob Manfred wrote “Baseball’s players have no salary cap and are not subjected to a maximum length or dollar amount on contracts. In fact, only MLB has guaranteed contracts that run 10 or more years, and in excess of $300MM.”

MLB’s proposal of a salary floor in collective bargaining discussions suggests some willingness on the league’s part to incentivize spending on mid-tier players. That was contingent on drastically reduced luxury tax thresholds that’d limit spending on top-end players, though. Rather than merely redistributing salaries, the MLBPA has focused on raising the players’ overall share of revenues. “MLB’s negotiators are open to changing the way younger players are compensated but do not necessarily believe players need to receive a broader share of the revenue pie to rectify those disparities,” Janes writes. “The union, meanwhile, wants to change the way players are compensated in large part by injecting a greater percentage of revenue back into player compensation — helping those at the bottom without costing those at the top.”

Union members could have differing interests based on their financial status. Yet as Janes notes, a number of key player representatives within the MLBPA reside squarely on the top end. Gerrit Cole, Marcus Semien, and Max Scherzer are among the sport’s premier athletes advocating for a market that is kinder to their youngest and oldest peers. This advocacy isn’t lost on others on the union side, including retired reliever and self-proclaimed “middle-of-the-pack guy,” Jerry Blevins. The former big league southpaw tells Janes having players with nine-figure salaries trying to push forward salaries for lower-tier vets “makes a big difference because they represent us, the normal guy, even though at the same time they’re benefiting from the system as it’s set up.”

The AP and Forbes each provide additional data on team spending habits. According to the AP, ten teams ended the season with a payroll under $100MM, a figure not seen since 13 teams ducked under that mark in 2014. The Pirates checked in with the lowest end-of-year payroll at $50MM, the lowest figure for any team since 2013. The Dodgers and Yankees were the only teams to exceed $200MM in actual payroll; the Dodgers and Padres, meanwhile, were the two clubs whose commitments exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (CBT calculations are based on deals’ average annual values as opposed to year-by-year payouts, explaining why the Padres paid the tax while the Yankees didn’t in spite of New York having the higher actual payroll).

Eleven teams raised their payrolls between 2019 and 2021, according to Forbes. The Padres’ 77% jump from around $104MM to approximately $184MM was easily the biggest. The Guardians had the biggest decline over that stretch, dipping from $123MM in 2019 to $53MM this past season. Forbes provides the exact payrolls of all thirty teams in 2019 and 2021 for those interested.

Mets, Daniel Palka Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Mets have agreed to a minor league contract with first baseman/corner outfielder Daniel Palka, according to Palka’s transactions tracker at MLB.com. The left-handed hitter has appeared in a pair of major league seasons, suiting up with the White Sox from 2018-19.

The bulk of Palka’s playing time came in the first of those years. He tallied 449 plate appearances with the South Siders in 2018 and popped an impressive 27 home runs, showcasing big power potential that had made him an interesting prospect coming up through the Diamondbacks’ and Twins’ systems. Yet he also struck out in 34.1% of his trips to the dish, and his resulting .240/.294/.484 slash line was only a touch above the league average.

Palka’s strikeout troubles continued the following year, and he was eventually outrighted off Chicago’s 40-man roster. The South Carolina native signed with the KBO’s Samsung Lions in 2020 but hit just .209/.272/.367 over 217 plate appearances there. He returned stateside last winter, signing a minor league deal with the Nationals.

Assigned to Triple-A Rochester, Palka had an impressive showing in 2021. He hit .256/.364/.472 with 18 homers in 420 attempts. That was the latest quality minor league showing from Palka, owner of a .260/.350/.480 line over five seasons at the minors’ top level. Yet the Nationals never gave him a big league look, and he elected minor league free agency after the season. He’ll now try to crack the roster of the division-rival Mets, although New York already has a strong group of corner bats (Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha, etc.) due for regular playing time, barring trades.

Latest On Cubs’ Interest In Carlos Correa

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There’s no more impactful player remaining on the open market than Carlos Correa. MLBTR’s top free agent entering the offseason, Correa was content to sit out the pre-lockout frenzy. The star shortstop is in position to land easily the biggest deal of the post-lockout period whenever the transactions freeze comes to an end. It stands to reason he and his representatives will try to top the ten-year, $325MM deal Corey Seager landed with the Rangers last month.

Reports have linked Correa to a few teams this winter, with some perhaps unexpected suitors hopping into the mix. The incumbent Astros, Cubs, Braves, Tigers, Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees were all linked to the two-time All-Star in some capacity. To what extent those clubs will reengage with Correa coming out of the lockout remains to be seen. The Tigers have already landed Javier Báez on a nine-figure deal. The Astros might be reluctant to go beyond six guaranteed years, and multiple reports have indicated the Yankees are content to rely on a stopgap pick-up at shortstop with a pair of well-regarded prospects (Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe) not far away from MLB readiness.

The Cubs’ reported entrance into the Correa bidding also registered as something of a surprise, given their recent spending habits. Chicago has kicked off an organizational reboot over the past few months, dropping player payroll from 2019’s franchise-record $203MM outlay (estimate via Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Early in the offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer cautioned against the possibility of “winning” the offseason and expressed a desire to spend opportunistically. None of that portended an earnest pursuit of the market’s top free agent.

To their credit, the Cubs’ early offseason approach has already been fairly active. Chicago claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds, taking on a $10MM salary in the process. They signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM guarantee. And in their biggest splash of the offseason to date, Chicago landed Marcus Stroman on a three-year, $71MM deal that contains an opt-out possibility after the 2023 campaign.

The Cubs’ first couple months of activity at least suggests it’s not a full rebuild, a sentiment Hoyer has expressed on a few occasions. The major league roster still looks short of immediate contention, but it also doesn’t seem the Cubs are hoping to idle near the bottom of the National League for the next few years in hopes of collecting high draft choices. Even if 2022 proves to be a down year, the front office could have their sights set on being competitive within the season or two thereafter.

There’s a case to be made for the Cubs to make a strong run at Correa, who just turned 27 in September. He’ll still be in his prime whenever the team is better prepared to contend, and one need look no further than the Rangers’ signing of Seager as an example of a current non-contender jumping early to sign an impact player to a long-term deal. A Correa mega-deal would be in a different financial stratosphere than any of the Cubs’ moves this winter, though, and it remains to be seen if the organization’s willing to make that level of commitment.

The Cubs apparently continue to have some amount of interest in that possibility. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score hears the organization may be willing to meet the $30MM+ in annual salary that Correa’s likely to command. However, he hears that the Cubs could balk at an especially long-term commitment, writing that “they’d rather not go 10 years in length.” Whether the reluctance to offer a decade’s worth of guarantees is a matter of preference or a firm organizational mandate isn’t clear, nor is the length of a proposal the front office would be more comfortable putting forth.

If the Cubs prove completely unwilling to go to ten years, it’d be difficult for Correa to top Seager’s $325MM guarantee in Chicago. Even over a nine-year term, getting to $325MM would require a $36.11MM average annual salary that’d be a record for a position player. It’s not clear whether Correa would be willing to sacrifice a year or two at the back of a deal in order to land a record-breaking AAV, although he’s reportedly already passed on offers of $160MM over five years (from the Astros) and $275MM over ten years (from the Tigers).

There’s no question he’ll have myriad options from which to choose once the sport’s business resumes. Correa is coming off a fifth-place finish in AL MVP balloting on the heels of a .279/.366/.485 line (134 wRC+) paired with Gold Glove defense. Of equal importance, he avoided the injured list (aside from a brief stay related to COVID-19) en route to 640 plate appearances over 148 games. That marked Correa’s heaviest workload since 2016, helping to assuage concerns clubs may have had after he was limited to 294 games between 2017-19 (98 per season) by thumb, back and rib issues.

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