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Qualifying Offer Value Set At $18.4MM

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This year’s qualifying offer will be worth $18.4MM, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter).  This represents a drop from last year’s $18.9MM figure, and the second time in the history of the qualifying offer that the value has declined from the previous season.  The QO was worth $17.8MM in the 2019-20 offseason, slightly below the $17.9MM price tag for the winter of 2018-19.

The qualifying offer is recalculated annually, as it is determined by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball.  The $500K drop from last year therefore looks like a reflection of the slower market of the 2020-21 offseason, as several teams spent less in the wake of reported and claimed revenue losses from the pandemic.

Still, the lower figure still counts as a surprise, as the general feeling was that the QO would end up rising to somewhere in the $19-$20MM range for the coming offseason.  Originally instituted for the 2012-13 offseason, the qualifying offer has varied annually but generally increases year-over-year:

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM

To recap the QO process, teams can issue a one-year contract to any of their free agents who a) have never received a qualifying offer, and b) have been with the team for the entirety of the previous season.  For instance, impending free agents like Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, or Kyle Schwarber can’t receive qualifying offers since they were traded at midseason.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently compiled a list of every player who has already been issued a qualifying offer in the past, for reference purposes.

Players who receive a qualifying offer have 10 days to make their decision, and if a player accepts a QO this winter, he’ll return to his club on a one-year contract and earn an $18.4MM salary in 2022.  (A player can also work out a longer-term extension with his team after accepting a qualifying offer, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  If the player rejects the QO, his new team will have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international spending pool money in order to make the signing, and his former team will receive a compensatory draft pick.

Back in August, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco broke down which of this winter’s free agents are likeliest to receive a qualifying offer, and which players might be more borderline cases.  As we’ve seen in the past, a QO can have a significant impact on a player’s earning potential, if teams are hesitant about surrendering significant draft capital or a hefty one-year salary to a free agent who might be a riskier candidate to provide elite value going forward.

This potential dampening effect of the QO has long been a thorn in the side of agents and the MLB Players Association, and the future of the qualifying offer figures to be a notable topic in negotiations over the new collective bargaining agreement.  It is quite possible that 2021-22 will be the last offseason featuring the qualifying offer in its current form, though it isn’t likely that owners will be keen on removing signing compensation and/or penalties from the free agent process.

Gio Urshela Discusses Position Change

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Yankees’ infielder Gio Urshela spoke to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post about switching from third base to shortstop this season and had positive things to say about the move.

“I played my entire minor leagues [and major leagues] at third base. Then, moving to shortstop, I kind of liked it,” he said. Urshela was exaggerating a little bit, as he had played a little bit of shortstop before this year, but not a lot. In 2017, he logged 20 innings at short while with Cleveland, then racked up 65 more for the Blue Jays in 2018. That was the sum total of his big league shortstop experience, 85 innings. He got a bit more in the minors, 276 1/3 shortstop innings from 2013 to 2018. But over 2019 and 2020, he didn’t play shortstop at all, majors or minors. “I really enjoyed playing shortstop because you get more involved in the game,” Urshela continued. “Every play, you’re going to be involved. Third base, I just wait for the [ball] and that’s it. You don’t move that much.”

On September 13th, Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone announced that the club would be moving Gleyber Torres from shortstop to second base “to take some pressure off” him. This followed years of speculation about the eventual move, given Torres’s defensive struggles. At that point, Urshela had appeared in parts of 11 games at short on the campaign, but then made 17 more appearances there over the season’s final three weeks. And how do defensive metrics like Urshela’s work? On the season overall, Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated Urshela at zero, Defensive Runs Saved had him at minus-1 and Ultimate Zone Rating gave him minus-0.2.

It’s probably not wise to use these small-sample numbers as any kind of cudgel to attack Urshela’s future as a shortstop, but he was around average offensively this year as well, as his slash line of .267/.301/.419 amount to a wRC+ of 96. (League average is 100.) That’s a drop-off from his 2019-2020 output of .310/.358/.523, wRC+ of 132. It seems fair to deduce that the Yankees will consider shortstop an area of potential improvement and will thus be very interested in this winter’s crop of shortstops. The market is loaded with stars, such as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Chris Taylor.

This will be lead to an interesting financial decision for the Yankees, in terms of the luxury tax. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, their 2022 luxury tax number is already $222MM, when factoring in estimates for the team’s massive arbitration class of 19 players. That’s well over the lowest threshold for this season, which was $210MM, a line the Yankees made a point to avoid crossing. However, it’s entirely possible that the entire luxury tax landscape looks completely different in a few months, given that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and MLBPA expires December 1st, with the negotiation of a new CBA widely expected to be contentious, leaving many variables undetermined for the time being. Regardless of whether the thresholds change significantly or not, that’s a heavy payroll to be carrying before the offseason even begins. Any of those aforementioned star shortstops would likely add at least $20MM to their luxury tax ledger, if not more, taking the Yankees above $240MM, before even factoring in any other offseason signings. Under the current CBA, the luxury tax penalties increase at $230MM and again at $250MM.

If the Yankees do add a shortstop of some kind before next season, it might squeeze Urshela’s playing time, as moving Torres to second base means DJ LeMahieu should be slotted into third base most of the time. Urshela played 2021 on a salary of $4.65MM and MLBTR’s arbitration projections for 2022 estimate that could increase to the vicinity of $6.2MM for his second of three arb years. That would be a bit steep for a bench infielder who offers up league-average offense, but it could also be a bargain if the club thinks he’s capable of returning to the form he showed in 2019-2020.

Stephen Vogt Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery

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The Braves announced that veteran catcher Stephen Vogt recently underwent a sports hernia surgery (relayed by David O’Brien of the Athletic). He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2022.

News of the injury adds a little more clarity to Atlanta’s decision to designate Vogt for assignment last week. The 36-year-old cleared outright waivers and technically remains in the organization, although he is slated to hit free agency this offseason anyways. There was little reason at that point for the Braves’ front office not to bump him from the roster once the need for a 40-man spot arose.

Vogt will hit the open market coming off a disappointing campaign. While he’s generally been a decent offensive catcher — offering some power from the lefty batters box — Vogt didn’t have a productive 2021. Between the D-Backs and Braves, he tallied 238 plate appearances of .195/.283/.333 hitting. His .212/.307/.386 line with Arizona was playable, but Vogt slumped to a .167/.241/.244 mark in 87 plate appearances with the Braves.

It’s possible Vogt will be limited to minor league offers with Spring Training invitations given this year’s struggles, although teams won’t have a whole lot in the way of free agent catching options to choose from. Yan Gomes is set to top the class, with Tucker Barnhart and Roberto Pérez potentially coming available if their respective clubs (Reds and Indians) decline 2022 club options.

Managerial Rumors: Boone, Espada, Showalter

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The latest managerial buzz from around baseball…

  • Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is “leaning toward” retaining manager Aaron Boone at the moment, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports. A Wild Card exit and a regular season that likely didn’t live up to lofty fan expectations (despite 92 wins) has made Boone an increasingly large target for ire among the fanbase, but Olney suggests Steinbrenner does not place the blame at Boone’s feet. Of course, his return (or departure) is a two-way street due to the fact that Boone’s contract expires at season’s end. The Mets and Padres will both be looking for new skippers, and it’s at least possible another opening could yet emerge. Someone with Boone’s experience could also draw interest from clubs in a variety of front-office roles, if he wished to go that route. Boone said last week that he “loves” being the Yankees’ skipper and “going to work with this group of players.”
  • If Boone did happen to leave the Yankees, Olney hears from rival executives that Astros bench coach Joe Espada could be one of the candidates to become New York’s next manager. Espada is a known commodity in the Bronx, having worked from 2014-2017 as a special assistant to GM Brian Cashman and then as the team’s third base coach. Espada was considered by the Cubs, Angels, and Giants for their recent managerial openings, and he was one of the finalists (and reportedly the favorite at one point late in the hiring process) for the San Francisco job that eventually went to Gabe Kapler.
  • Buck Showalter’s name has come up in speculative fashion as the Mets and the Padres begin their searches for a new skipper, and the 64-year-old definitively tells Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic that he does not consider himself retired from managing. Showalter says it’s “an honor” just to be mentioned as a candidate in ongoing managerial searches but adds that he has yet to be contacted by either club. The former Yankees, D-backs, Orioles and Rangers skipper says he would “never dictate a situation” by refusing to manage a rebuilding club, interestingly adding that he’d have happily taken a pay cut to stay on as the Orioles’ skipper throughout the rebuild but was never asked. Showalter fans will want to check out the Q&A in its entirety for his thoughts on working live TV broadcasts, his time with the O’s and the recent trend toward more experienced managers.

Jorge Soler Tests Positive For COVID-19; Cristian Pache Added To Braves’ NLDS Roster

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Braves outfielder Jorge Soler has been removed from his team’s NLDS roster due to a positive test for COVID-19, the league announced.  Cristian Pache has been approved as a substitute to take Soler’s spot on the roster.  Soler will be allowed to return the club once he clears COVID protocols.

The news comes less than two hours before the Braves look to close out the Brewers in Game 4 of their NLDS series.  Soler had been announced as Atlanta’s starting right fielder and leadoff hitter in the game, but the revised lineup now sees Joc Pederson slide from left field to right, Adam Duvall from center to left field, and Guillermo Heredia (batting eighth) added as the new starter in center.

Soler will be quarantined for at least five days, as per David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link), and he has to cleared as non-infectious by a four-person joint health and safety committee (two doctors, and one representative each from the league and the players’ union).  If he is able to return after only that five-day minimum, Soler would possibly be in line to play by Game 2 of the National League Championship Series if the Braves advance past Milwaukee.

It has been a tough postseason for Soler, who has only one hit in 13 NLDS plate appearances.  Nonetheless, the veteran was a big reason why Atlanta won the NL East in the first place, as Soler hit .269/.358/.524 with 14 home runs over 242 PA after being acquired from the Royals in a trade deadline deal.  Soler had struggled over the first four months of the season, so his re-emergence with the Braves will surely help the 29-year-old’s case in free agency this winter.

The bigger issue at hand for the moment, however, is that the Braves now have a significant hole in their lineup.  The trio of Pederson, Duvall, and Eddie Rosario (along with Soler, all midseason pickups) now projects as Atlanta’s first-choice outfield, with Heredia, Pache, Terrance Gore, and utilitymen Ehire Adrianza and Orlando Arcia all providing additional depth.

Astros’ Jake Meyers Leaves ALDS Game 4 Due To Shoulder Discomfort

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2:43PM: Meyers left the game due to left shoulder discomfort, the Astros announced.

2:23PM: An apparent injury to his left arm forced Astros center fielder Jake Meyers to depart in the bottom of the second inning of Game 4 of the ALDS series between the Astros and White Sox.  Meyers collided with the outfield fence while trying to make a leaping catch of a Gavin Sheets home run, with Meyers’ left arm taking the brunt of the impact.  The center fielder was in obvious discomfort but attempted to stay in the game, testing his arm on a few light throws before finally being replaced by Chas McCormick.

Should the Astros win today and clinch the series, no roster maneuvers will be needed to address Meyers’ situation until the ALCS.  If the White Sox win Game 4 and force a Game 5, the Astros can only replace Meyers with another player for that decisive game if the Commissioner’s Office grants approval.  In that scenario, Meyers would be ineligible to play in the ALCS but could return to the World Series, if healthy.

More will be known about Meyers’ condition after the game, though an injury absence would be a very unfortunate turn of events for both Meyers and the Astros on the heels of the 25-year-old’s solid rookie season.  Originally a 13th-round pick for Houston in the 2017 draft, Meyers posted a 1.006 OPS over his first 304 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season, leading to his first big league call-up.

After Myles Straw was dealt to the Indians at the trade deadline, Meyers and fellow rookie McCormick became Houston’s regular center field tandem, each delivering above-average offense and defense.  Meyers hit .260/.323/.438 with six homers in 163 plate appearances, while posting a +4.9 UZR/150 and +3 Defensive Runs Saved over 293 1/3 innings in center field.  Game 4 marked the third start of the series for Meyers, who had three singles and two RBI in his first seven trips to the plate in the postseason.

Should Meyers miss time, utilityman Marwin Gonzalez is probably Houston’s top choice to take his place on the ALDS or ALCS roster, as Gonzalez’s versatility at least gives the Astros some flexibility in determining how to juggle the lineup.  McCormick likely becomes the top choice in center field with Jose Siri as the chief depth option, though the Astros could conceivably use Kyle Tucker as a center fielder in a pinch.  Moving Tucker to center field would then open up room for Gonzalez or currently-rostered utilityman Aledmys Diaz to get into the lineup in some capacity.

Marlins Notes: Outfielders, Anderson, Revenue

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Catcher has already been identified as a position of need for the Marlins this winter, and the club’s search for more offense is likely to result in some new faces in the outfield.  The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson believes the Fish “will acquire two starting outfielders,” with Jesus Sanchez likely taking the other starting role and Bryan De La Cruz probably moving to fourth outfielder duty.

Sanchez played almost exclusively as a right fielder down the stretch this season, so that would seem to specify left field and center field as Miami’s target areas.  De La Cruz is probably best suited for a corner outfield role but he can at least chip in as a center fielder, expanding the Marlins’ ability to find ways to get his bat into the lineup following a solid rookie season.  Should the National League adopt the DH in 2022, that will provide another route to playing time for De La Cruz or any other hitters the Marlins might acquire.

There’s no shortage of prominent outfielders in this year’s free agent class, and while a true blockbuster signing would still be a little unexpected for the Marlins, general manager Kim Ng has stated that “we are going to have some money to spend.”  Jackson estimates that the Marlins have around $35MM in new revenue to work with thanks to a new TV contract and their ballpark’s naming rights deal, and while not all of that money will necessarily go into player payroll, it does at least somewhat expand the team’s spending parameters.

Of course, Miami could also turn to the trade market, as the team has already explored the possibility of trading from its depth of young pitching to acquire a high-profile outfielder.  And with new talent coming in, internal trade candidates could be found amongst the players who may no longer be a major part of the Marlins’ long-term plans.  Jackson mentions Braxton Garrett, Isan Diaz, Nick Neidert, Monte Harrison, and the out-of-options Lewis Brinson as players who have yet to show much at the Major League level, so any could conceivably be part of trade talks, whether as part of a lower-level swap or as parts of a larger trade package.

If outfield is a target area, it makes sense that the Fish could try to clear room by moving Harrison and Brinson.  Garrett Cooper’s season was cut short by elbow surgery, but he has hit well in his career when healthy and his projected $3MM arbitration salary isn’t too expensive, so he could be retained for some right field work and as part of the first base/DH mix.

Third base is another potential position to be addressed, depending on what the Marlins opt to do with Brian Anderson.  An injury-plagued year resulted in subpar (.249/.337/.378) numbers over 264 plate appearances for Anderson, a notable step back from the .266/.350/.436 slash line he produced from 2018-20.  Depending on how Miami feels about Anderson as a building block, he could be deployed again as the starting third baseman, or moved back to the outfield to fill one of those holes, or the Marlins could look to trade him and then look for an upgrade at the hot corner.

Escalators Increased Price Of Rays’ Club Option On Mike Zunino

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Rays backstop Mike Zunino had the best season of his career in 2021, and his durability and strong production behind the dish have upped the price it’ll cost Tampa Bay to retain him in 2022. Zunino re-signed with the Rays on a one-year deal with a $4MM club option this past offseason, but as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times points out, it was reported at the time of the deal that Zunino’s option would increase from $4MM to $7MM if he appeared in 100 or more games this season.

Zunino topped that mark by reaching 109 games, and he swatted a career-best 33 home runs in the process. That mark, reached in 375 plate appearances, matches Zunino’s combined home run total from 2018-20 (778 plate appearances). The 30-year-old still strikes out at a prolific rate (35.2 percent in ’21), but he also posted the second-base walk rate of his career (9.1 percent) and played his usual brand of strong defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved, plus framing marks — albeit with a league-leading 10 passed balls). Overall, Zunino’s .216/.301/.559 batting line translated to a 134 wRC+.

It’s probably not realistic to expect Zunino to repeat that offensive season in 2022. His 30.3 percent homer-to-flyball ratio was the highest of his career by more than six percentage points and tied for the 19th-highest single-season mark of any player with at least 350 plate appearances, dating back to 2010.

That said, Zunino’s power surge doesn’t look like a total fluke, either. Statcast shows that his average exit velocity jumped from 88.9 mph from 2018-20 to 90.7 mph in 2021. His rate of barreled balls exploded from 12.8 percent in 2018-20 to 24.3 percent this past season, and his hard-hit rate jumped by more than five percentage points to 46.5 percent — second-best of his career. He’d be hard-pressed to repeat that showing across the board, but it’s reasonable to expect a middle ground between Zunino’s big 2021 and the underwhelming three prior seasons.

Regardless of the increased price, Zunino’s option looks like a relative bargain. The Rays owe him a $1MM buyout regardless, making it a net $6MM call on their end, and the free-agent market isn’t deep with alternatives. None of the available names can match Zunino’s blend of power and defense, and it stands to reason that were he set back out into the open market, he’d top the price of next year’s option with relative ease.

The Rays do have a potential successor on the roster already, as switch-hitting 25-year-old Francisco Mejia posted a solid .260/.322/.416 slash in a career-high 277 plate appearances this year. He’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter — as will a whopping 18 other Rays — but the combination of Zunino and Mejia should still be an affordable and productive pairing. (Anecdotally, keeping both for the 2022 season also curbs Mejia’s playing time and thus curbs future arbitration raises, though that’s unlikely to be a major part of the calculus.)

At the end of the day, any notable increase in salary (or potential salary) for a Rays player is worth mention, because the Tampa Bay front office makes surprising decisions driven by perennial payroll constraints every offseason. It’s tough to imagine moving on from Zunino after a 33-homer, All-Star season, but the very fact that it’ll cost them a few extra million dollars could also lead to some tougher decisions elsewhere on the roster.

Minnesota Twins Job Openings

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From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

The Minnesota Twins are currently accepting applications for the following positions:

Director, Baseball Research

Fellow, Baseball Research

Fellow, Baseball Technology

Fellow, Baseball Operations

Fellow, Player Development

Latest On Padres’ Managerial Candidates

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The Padres are one of two teams with a current managerial vacancy, having fired Jayce Tingler last week. Braves third base coach Ron Washington — the runner-up to Tingler in the club’s previous managerial search — has already expressed interested and been reported to be under consideration for the position, and speculation about a few other potential candidates has begun to emerge.

In addition to Washington, Padres’ brass has done some background work on veteran managers Bruce Bochy and Buck Showalter, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). Bochy told Chris Russo of SiriusXM’s Mad Dog Sports Radio channel last Friday that he hadn’t been contacted by the Friars to that point, but he expressed some openness to considering the role if the club were interested. Showalter, meanwhile, has a lengthy managerial career that includes stints with the Yankees, D-Backs, Rangers and Orioles dating back to 1992. The 65-year-old last managed in 2018 with Baltimore, but he’d bring an accomplished resume — three Manager of the Year award wins and five postseason appearances — to the table.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds three more candidates to the mix, suggesting each of Brad Ausmus, John Gibbons and Jeff Banister could be under consideration. Ausmus, a former Padre player and front office executive, had previous stints managing the Tigers (2014-17) and Angels (2019). Gibbons spent two separate stints at the helm of the Blue Jays, leading the club to a pair of playoff appearances from 2015-16.

Banister, meanwhile, spent four years leading the Rangers — somewhat ironically succeeding Washington in that position after the latter stepped down near the end of the 2014 season. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has hired quite a few former colleagues from his time in Texas, but Preller had already matriculated to San Diego by the time the Rangers hired Banister. The 57-year-old Banister spent four years at the helm in Arlington, leading the team to a pair of playoff appearances in his first two seasons before they dropped below .500 over his final couple campaigns.

Olney also adds one more interesting wrinkle, suggesting the Friars may have interest in Yankees’ skipper Aaron Boone. Boone has spent the last four seasons in the Bronx, but his contract is set to expire at the end of this season. It’s entirely possible the Yankees sign Boone to an extension and keep him in the fold, but there’ll be at least some uncertainty regarding his status until New York makes a formal announcement about his future with the organization.

Clearly, San Diego has taken a broad approach to the initial round of hiring, with a wide array of early candidates in the mix. Kevin Acee of the San Diego of the Union-Tribune reports that the club is hoping to pare things down a bit by the end of this week, although there’s no firm timetable set for advancing the process.

Interestingly, each of the publicly-known initial candidates has some degree of managerial experience at the major league level, a few having managed with multiple franchises. Padres’ chairman Peter Seidler indicated last week that wouldn’t be a prerequisite for the position. It’s likely there are also others under consideration who have no prior MLB managing history, but it’s nevertheless noteworthy to see the Pads at least kicking the tires on a group of well-known skippers after Preller’s first two hires (Andy Green and Tingler, respectively) were both assuming the role for the first time.

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