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Giants Notes: Bryant, Watson, Wood

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As the Giants do battle in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, Kris Bryant will be manning first base. Before the game, the versatile Bryant offered John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle a positive review of his time out west, drawing comparisons to the fun, winning culture cultivated during the Cubs’ 2016 playoff run and suggesting openness to a longer-term arrangement. Whether there’s enough mutual interest in a reunion will likely come down to dollars, but this endorsement will only serve to intensify reunion rumors between Bryant, a West Coast native, and San Francisco in the months ahead.

A couple other notes out of the Bay Area…

  • Left-handed reliever Tony Watson is working his way back from a shoulder strain in hopes of returning to a potential Giants’ NLCS roster. The veteran acknowledged to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic however that he may be running out of time. Advancing past the Dodgers is the Giants’ chief objective at the moment, but if they do just that, it would be a boon to their pitching staff if Watson returned. Acquired in a mid-season trade with the Angels, Watson dominated for the first-place club down the stretch— in 26 appearances he produced a stingy 4.4% walk rate, a sub-3 ERA (140 ERA+), and was among the best in the league at limiting hard contact.
  • J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group meanwhile offered some insight into another barrel-dodging left-hander. Alex Wood spoke to Hoornstra about his decision to sign with the Giants this past offseason after securing a ring with the Dodgers during last year’s campaign. Wood spoke glowingly of his time in LA but cited his relationship with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and a clearer path to consistent starts as a reason to move on. Signed to a one-year, $3MM contract, Wood’s performance has been one of several unmitigated successes for the upstart Giants this year. Boasting above-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates of 26%, 6.7%, and 50%, Wood helped his club across 26 starts to win the NL West by the thinnest of margins. His 3.83 ERA looks sustainable in the eyes of advanced metrics, a factor likely to play into yet an even more competitive offseason for the starter’s services.

Delino DeShields Jr. Elects Free Agency

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Reds outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. has refused an outright assignment and become a free agent, reports MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (via tweet).

The speedy outfielder bounced around a few organizations this year after signing with the Rangers on a minor league deal. Owing to a robust walk rate and strong base stealing numbers in their Triple-A affiliate, Texas found a trade partner in Boston to take in DeShields as outfield depth and a potential playoff weapon. Cincinnati found similar appeal in DeShields and plucked him from the Red Sox in an early August deal for cash.

DeShields’ minors production included solid numbers, including 21 stolen bases (in 24 tries) and a .750 OPS. With the Reds, however, he saw big league action for the first time in 2021 and had a nice showing in sample size of 25 games, producing a .255/.375/.426 slash (105 OPS+) with almost as many walks as strikeouts.

Despite solid production down the stretch, the Reds likely didn’t view DeShields as an indispensable part of their future. The 29-year-old could have been retained via arbitration but will instead head to the open market in search of more steady Major League work. With plenty to like about DeShields’ profile, there are plenty of teams, including the Reds themselves, who may come knocking in the offseason to fortify their outfield ranks.

Coaching Notes: Dickerson, Phillies, Padres, Washington, Bochy, Yankees

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The Phillies made a notable addition to their coaching staff today, hiring former Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long to fill the same position. They’re apparently considering making another noteworthy hire, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports the Phillies have discussed bringing back Bobby Dickerson as infield coach. Dickerson spent the 2019 campaign as Phils’ infield coach before joining the Padres as Jayce Tingler’s bench coach entering 2020. Dickerson remains under contract with San Diego, but Padres’ staffers were given permission to explore opportunities elsewhere once Tingler was fired last week. The Phils are on the hunt for a new infield instructor after dismissing Juan Castro.

More on coaching/managing situations around the league:

  • The Padres have already been tied to Ron Washington after announcing Tingler’s dismissal. Washington is hoping for that opportunity, telling Robert Murray of FanSided he could “get that team over the hump.” Washington was the runner-up in the Friars’ last managerial hiring cycle, and the baseball lifer would indeed seem to be a good fit on the surface for a San Diego team that has gone with two first-time managers (Andy Green and Tingler, respectively) over the past few seasons. Washington managed the Rangers — where his time in the organization overlapped with that of Padres’ president of baseball operations A.J. Preller — from 2007-14. He’s spent the past few seasons coaching with the A’s and Braves, currently serving as Atlanta’s third base coach.
  • In addition to Washington, there’s been some speculation about the possibility of Bruce Bochy returning to manage the Padres, as he did from 1995-2006. Speaking with Chris Russo of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM last week, Bochy said he hadn’t yet been contacted by either of the clubs (San Diego and the Mets) with managerial vacancies. The 66-year-old sounded amenable to considering a return, though, telling Russo he’d “never rule anything out” if contacted. Bochy stopped short of lobbying for an opportunity, telling Russo that pursuing a managerial job is “not something (he’s) thinking about right now,” although he admitted he hasn’t lost his competitive desire over the past couple years. Bochy managed the Giants from 2007-19, leading the club to four postseason appearances and three World Series titles. He stepped away from the manager’s office after the 2019 season, assuming an advisory role in the San Francisco front office, but he’s never formally closed the book on a potential return to the dugout.
  • There’s still some uncertainty about the Yankees’ managerial position, as Aaron Boone’s contract is set to expire at the end of this season. Lindsey Adler of the Athletic examines the situation, reporting that the bulk of Boone’s coaching staff (excluding pitching coach Matt Blake and catching coach Tanner Swanson) are also on expiring deals. Boone has had plenty of success over the past few years, leading the team to a 328-218 record and postseason appearances in all four of his seasons at the helm. But the Yankees have had star-studded rosters throughout his tenure and only gotten past the Division Series once in the past four years (losing to the Astros in the 2019 ALCS). Without a World Series or pennant win under his belt, Boone has faced his share of criticism, and there’ll surely be speculation amongst the Yankee fan base about his future until the club announces a formal decision on his status for 2022 and beyond.

Phillies To Hire Kevin Long As Hitting Coach

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The Phillies are set to hire Kevin Long as their new hitting coach, Britt Ghiroli and Matt Gelb of The Athletic report (via Twitter). Long, who has been the Nationals’ hitting coach for the past four seasons, will be reunited with manager Joe Girardi and bench coach Rob Thomson in Philadelphia. The trio worked together in New York, where Long served as the hitting coach for much of Girardi’s managerial tenure. Long was on a one-year contract with the Nats for the 2021 season, and while he was reportedly open to a return to D.C., he also had the freedom to gauge interest elsewhere.

With the Phillies, Long will replace the recently dismissed Joe Dillon — his former assistant hitting coach with the Nats. The Phils hired Dillon as their hitting coach prior to the 2020 season, but his tenure proved relatively short, as the Phils made some changes to Girardi’s staff after another disappointing playoff miss. Phillies hitters ranked sixth in the Majors in walk rate from 2020-21 and are tied for the seventh-lowest team strikeout rate at 22.6 percent in that same span. They ranked 10th in runs scored (1040), 13th in home runs (280) and posted an overall .244/.324/.417 batting line (97 wRC+) during Dillon’s two years as hitting coach.

Moving from Washington to Philadelphia, Long will also reunite with one of his highest-profile pupils, Bryce Harper, whom he coached with the Nationals during Harper’s final season prior to free agency. (His time with the Yankees did not overlap with embattled Phillies shortstop Didi Gregorius.) Girardi and Long had a heated exchange earlier this season after Girardi called for then-Nationals ace Max Scherzer to be checked for foreign substances on the mound mid-inning, though doesn’t seem to have formed a lasting rift between the longtime colleagues, based on today’s news.

Long, 54, has a pair of World Series rings: one for his 2009 work with the Yankees and a second for with the 2019 Nationals. He served as Yankees hitting coach from 2007-14 before joining the Mets in the same capacity from 2015-17 and the Nationals from 2018-21.

The Phils also parted ways with infield coach Juan Castro and gave assistant hitting coach Pedro Guerrero the freedom to explore other opportunities, so Long’s hiring will be the first of at least a couple of coaching changes in the weeks to come.

Michael Lorenzen Hoping For Rotation Opportunity In Free Agency

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For seven seasons with the Reds, right-hander Michael Lorenzen was utilized in rather unique fashion. The 29-year-old former No. 38 overall pick started 21 games as a rookie before settling in as a reliever. He also spent 96 innings in the outfield, 81 of them in center, and even played a handful of complete games as a center fielder down the stretch in 2019. He’s not Shohei Ohtani, but Lorenzen’s .233/.282/.429 batting line and seven career home runs in 147 plate appearances make him one of the game’s most productive pitchers with a bat in his hands.

At various points in his career, Lorenzen was set to audition for another opportunity in the Cincinnati rotation, but Spring Training injuries intervened. Now, as he sets out into the free-agent market, the 29-year-old righty hopes to sign with a club that will give him the chance to compete for a spot in the starting rotation, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

The 2021 season was a rough one for Lorenzen, who sustained a shoulder strain in Spring Training at a time when the Reds were planning to give him another chance at starting. As the right-hander explains to Nightengale, he suffered a Grade 3 hamstring strain while fielding a bunt against the Pirates on Aug. 8 — not long after returning from the shoulder injury. Rather than go on the injured list, Lorenzen somehow found a way to pitch through the injury down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, it wasn’t a productive run, but with so many injuries elsewhere in the Cincinnati ’pen, Lorenzen gutted things out.

A look at Lorenzen’s 2021 numbers won’t generate much excitement. The right-hander finished out the year with a 5.59 ERA, a 16.8 percent strikeout rate, an 11.2 percent walk rate and a 44.8 percent grounder rate. The ERA is rather heavily skewed by Lorenzen’s final two appearances of the season, during which he yielded a combined eight runs in just 1 2/3 frames. Prior to that, he’d worked to a solid 3.62 ERA with an 18.9 percent strikeout rate and a 9.0 percent walk rate. Given that he was never (or only briefly) at full strength, it was a rather impressive showing up until that final pair of games.

Lorenzen figures to draw interest in a variety of roles, and plenty of teams will surely be more keen on plugging him into the bullpen than giving him a legitimate chance to start. From 2016-20, Lorenzen racked up 331 innings out of the Cincinnati bullpen and pitched to a cumulative 3.48 ERA with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, nine percent walk rate and 44.8 percent ground-ball rate. He missed the first two and a half months of the ’16 season with an elbow strain and missed six weeks in ’18 with a shoulder strain, but Lorenzen still averaged 66 2/3 innings per season — and that’s including last year’s shortened schedule.

Given his track record in the ’pen, one would imagine that Lorenzen’s most-lucrative offers will be to pitch in relief next season. The right-hander tells Nightengale, however, that he’s “willing to bet on [himself]” in free agency this winter if the right situation comes along. Presumably, any starting opportunities would be on a low-cost deal with a fair bit of incentives — perhaps some based both on starting and relieving.

This year’s injury-marred results notwithstanding, Lorenzen has a strong track record in the bullpen, as many as six different pitches (headlined by a heater that averaged 96.9 mph in 2021), an excellent bat relative to other pitchers, and strong defensive skills in the outfield. Statcast pegged him in the 95th percentile in terms of sprint speed in 2017, and his 28.8 ft/sec speed in 2019 tied him for 68th among 564 big league position players. Beyond the raw speed, Statcast pegs him at +2 Outs Above Average as an outfielder, while Defensive Runs Saved has him at +1 in those 96 career innings. A rough 2021 showing will probably keep the price down, but he’ll be one of the more interesting buy-low options on the offseason market, regardless of what role he lands.

Yusei Kikuchi Likely To Exercise Player Option For 2022

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The Mariners’ original signing of Yusei Kikuchi provided the left-hander with one of the more unconventional option scenarios in recent memory. The team can exercise a four-year, $66MM extension option after the current season, and if the Mariners turn down that effective extension clause, he’ll have a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season.

It looked like an intriguing dilemma for the Mariners midway through the season, when Kikuchi had made the All-Star team and was in the midst of what looked like a breakout campaign. However, the left-hander faded down the stretch to the extent that it now looks likelier that the Mariners will decline their portion of the option. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that if the Mariners indeed decline to pick up the additional four years of Kikuchi, the pitcher plans to exercise his portion of the deal, setting him up for a fourth season in Seattle and a $13MM salary.

Back in early July, I took a lengthy look at the situation at what was perhaps the peak point of Kikuchi’s season. At the time, he carried a 3.18 ERA with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate, an 8.5 percent walk rate and a career-high 53.8 percent grounder rate. Kikuchi’s average fastball jumped immensely from 2019 in his second and third big league seasons, and he was missing bats more than ever with career-best command. He’d held opponents to three or fewer runs in 13 of 15 starts and rattled off a 2.33 ERA over his past 11 starts — averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing along the way.

Things almost immediately took a turn for the worse, as Kikuchi yielded a combined 12 runs over his next two starts and never fully regained his footing. There were still some strong starts mixed in along the way, including seven shutout frames against the Astros on Aug. 31, but Kikuchi pitched to a collective 6.22 ERA over his final 14 outings. His strikeout rate dipped slightly (23.3 percent), his walk rate rose (10.3 percent) and his ground-ball rate plummeted from that 53.8 percent mark all the way down to 41.7 percent. Unsurprisingly, the huge uptick on balls hit in the air against Kikuchi prompted his home-run rate to spike as well (1.70 HR/9 in those final 14 starts).

The end result doesn’t necessarily look that bad on paper. Kikuchi totaled 157 innings and notched a 4.41 ERA with a roughly average strikeout rate, a worse-than-average walk rate and an above-average ground-ball rate. Taken in its entirety, it was a respectable overall season. And if Kikuchi had flipped things around, starting with those ugly 14 starts before more or less dominating in his final 15, we’d be viewing the option decision quite differently even though the end results would look exactly the same.

There’s a case to be made that perhaps Kikuchi could exceed that $13MM he’s guaranteed on the player option by declining and seeking a multi-year deal at a lower annual rate. We’ve seen plenty of two-year contracts in the $16-20MM range for veteran arms with comparable bottom-line numbers and less-impressive combinations of strikeout rate and ground-ball tendencies. That said, he likely wouldn’t exceed that $13MM salary by much, so it’s not a huge surprise that on the heels of a dismal second half, he’d lock that salary in and hope to position himself for a stronger trip to the market in the 2022-23 offseason.

Looking to the Mariners’ payroll, they may not consider paying Kikuchi $13MM next year to be ideal, but it’s hardly a backbreaker. The only guaranteed contracts on the books are Marco Gonzales ($5.5MM), Ken Giles ($5MM in what will be his return season from 2020 Tommy John surgery), Chris Flexen ($2.75MM) and Evan White ($1.4MM). They hold a $20MM club option on Kyle Seager that Divish and others have suggested is likely to be bought out, and the Mariners will also pay $3.75MM to the Mets under the previous Robinson Cano trade. They’ll be looking at arbitration raises for Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford, Paul Sewald and Diego Castillo, among others, but Haniger’s $3.01MM salary from 2021 is the highest starting point for any of those raises. None should break the bank.

Seattle only opened the 2021 season with a payroll in the $74MM range, but from 2017-19 the M’s averaged an Opening Day payroll of roughly $152.9MM. Recently promoted president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already said that ownership has authorized him to increase payroll next year, and with such a light slate of commitments on the books, a returning Kikuchi at $13MM shouldn’t prove too much of a detriment.

Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Center Fielders

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As the offseason creeps closer and closer, we’ll continue our position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve already covered catchers, first basemen, third basemen, second basemen and shortstops. Next up, center field.

Everyday Options

Starling Marte (33 years old next season): There are some other great players on this list who can play center field a bit, but Marte is your best bet if you’re looking for an everyday center fielder who can help you on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he’s been an above-average contributor for nine of the last ten years, with 2017 being his only dip. (He missed 80 games that season after testing positive for Nandrolone, an anabolic steroid.) Over the 1,134 games of his career, he has hit 126 home runs, stolen 296 bases and has a slash line of .289/.345/.451. All that adds up to a wRC+ of 118 and 30.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. And he’s coming off his best offensive season to date, as he slashed .308/.381/.456, with 47 stolen bases, the most in the majors by a significant margin. (Whit Merrifield was second with 40.) His wRC+ on the season of 133 and his 5.4 fWAR were both career highs.

On the defensive side of things, Marte played primarily in left field for the first half of his career, as the Pirates had Andrew McCutchen in center. But since McCutchen’s departure, Marte moved over to center and has hardly moved off it since. Over the past four seasons, he has played exactly one game in left field, logging just three innings. Other than that, he’s been exclusively in center. According to Statcast, he has been worth 17 Outs Above Average in that span, which is the 15th-highest tally among center fielders league-wide. Although Marte just turned 33 and is older than many center fielders in the league, he was still worth 4 OAA, 20th-best among center fielders this season.

Marte is reaching free agency a little bit later than most players due to the extension he signed with the Pirates way back in 2014. As a 33-year-old, that could put a cap on how long teams are willing to commit to him being a regular in center. But the Blue Jays just gave George Springer a six-year contract to cover his age-31 through age-36 seasons. Regardless, Marte is the best option available for any team that needs a center fielder now. He won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason.

Kris Bryant (30): Bryant was already written about in the third basemen post linked above. He’s not really a center fielder, only playing 29 games there over his career so far. But his versatility will be a big part of his appeal to clubs in free agency this winter. That said, he’s likely to be considered a third baseman/corner outfielder and only an emergency option in center.

Bryant will command a huge contract because of his offensive track record and strong platform season. His line this season is .268/.356/.496, wRC+ of 123, producing 3.6 fWAR.

Mark Canha (33): If you don’t regularly watch Oakland games, you might not realize how good Mark Canha has been over the past four seasons. From 2018 to 2021, he hit .249/.366/.441. That amounts to a wRC+ of 126, which ranks 39th among all qualified hitters over that time. That’s buoyed by a 12.1% walk rate, 19th among qualified hitters over those years. His 10.4 fWAR over that span is the 18th highest tally among all outfielders.

In 2018 and 2019, he played 62 and 56 games in center, respectively. But in the shortened 2020 season, it was just 9. This year, it was 23. He’s more of a corner outfielder who can cover center in a pinch than a true center fielder. However, Statcast considers him a competent defender, crediting him with 3 OAA this season overall. And given his late-bloom career, he’s reaching free agency for the first time at a somewhat advanced age. That makes it unlikely for a team to consider him a long-term solution up the middle. But for any team that needs a corner outfielder that could slide over when needed, he’s a great option.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has already been discussed in the aforementioned MLBTR posts about second basemen and shortstops. While not a true everyday center fielder, he’s one of the most intriguing options on this list by virtue of his versatility. This season, he’s played 61 games in center field, and at least eight games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and right field. In other words, he’s a proper super utility player.

2021 was his fifth-consecutive season with a wRC+ of 106 or higher. His 2021 line is .254/.344/.438, for a wRC+ 113 and 3.1 fWAR. That bat and that defensive versatility makes him a fit on just about every team in the league, meaning he should garner plenty of interest this offseason and will be one of the more fascinating markets to watch.

Utility/Platoon/Bench Types 

  • Delino DeShields (29): DeShields bounced around in the minors for a few organizations this year, eventually seeing a bit of big league action with the Reds. He had a good showing in a small sample size of 25 games, slashing .255/.375/.426. That’s much better than his career slash line of .246/.327/.342.
  • Jarrod Dyson (37): Dyson returned to the Royals this year on a one-year deal and hit a paltry .221/.256/.311 before being put on waivers. He was claimed by the Blue Jays, who used him primarily as a late-game defensive replacement and pinch runner. He could potentially fill a similar role for a team in 2022.
  • Leury Garcia (31): 2021 was the best full season of Garcia’s career, as he hit .267/.335/.376. His wRC+ of 98 was bested only by his 107 in the shortened 2020 season, where he played only 16 games. His 2.0 fWAR in 2021 almost doubled his previous high of 1.2. The most he’s ever played in center field was 2019, where he got into 80 games there. But this year, it was just 26. He’s more super utility guy than proper center fielder, which is why he was already featured in MLBTR’s posts about second basemen, third basemen and shortstops.
  • Billy Hamilton (31): Signed by the White Sox to a minors deal in March, he cracked opening day roster and has managed to hold down his spot all year. With Luis Robert getting most of the playing time in center when healthy, Hamilton was used primarily off the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. In parts of 71 games this year, he hit .220/.242/.378 and stole nine bases without getting caught.
  • Ender Inciarte (31): Inciarte has always been revered more for his defensive skills than his bat, but his offense has slumped to new lows over the past couple seasons. This year, in 52 games, he hit just .215/.276/.316 and got released by Atlanta in July. He signed a minors deal with the Reds but opted out of that in September. He’ll probably have to settle for another minors deal this winter.
  • Danny Santana (31): Signed by the Red Sox to a minor league deal in the offseason, Santana has gotten into 38 games for them, including 13 in center. On the season, he hit .181/.252/.345 for a wRC+ of 58. He’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season and will probably be looking at another minor league deal this winter. He’s played second, third and shortstop in the past, but over 2020 and 2021, he’s only seen time at first base and in the outfield.

Players With 2022 Options

Jackie Bradley Jr.(32): Bradley has had a dismal season at the plate, hitting .163/.236/.261, for a wRC+ of 35. He has a player option valued at $11MM, which he will certainly take instead of heading back to the open market with that kind of platform.

Brett Gardner (38): Gardner has a player option valued at $2.3MM, but if he declines, the Yankees have a team option valued at $7.15MM, with a buyout of $1.15MM. Gardner was thrust into everyday duty this season after Aaron Hicks went down with wrist surgery and wound up playing 105 games in center. Overall, he hit .222/.327/.362 for a wRC+ of 93 and 1.4 fWAR. The Yankees may be motivated to keep him around given the uncertainty surrounding Clint Frazier, but $7.15MM would be a big raise on this year’s $2.85MM salary. They previously declined club options on Gardner in 2018 and 2020 but subsequently agreed to new contracts, which seems like a distinct possibility for this winter as well.

Odubel Herrera (30): In July of 2019, Herrera was suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. He was designated for assignment after that season and cleared waivers, being outrighted to Triple-A. He made his way back to the roster in April 2021 and got into 124 games this season, hitting .260/.310/.416 for a wRC+ of 93. The Phillies can retain him for another year by picking up his $11.5MM option, but it seems more likely that they will buy him out for $2.5MM. However, if they do pick up the option, they’ll be able to control him for 2023 via another club option, this one valued at $12.5MM.

Jake Marisnick (31): Between the Cubs and Padres this year, Marisnick played 99 games, 52 of those in center field. He was passable at the plate when with the Cubs, slashing .227/.294/.438, but slumped after being traded to San Diego, hitting .188/.264/.208. The one-year deal he signed with the Cubs came with a $4MM mutual option for 2022. Mutual options are almost never exercised, meaning the Padres will likely just give him the $500K buyout.

Joc Pederson (30): Pederson played over 90 games in center in each season from 2015-2017, but it’s been much rarer since then: 32 games in 2018, 2 in 2019, none in 2020 and 26 in 2021. Similar to Canha, he’s more of a corner outfielder who could play center field if you really needed him to. However, his defensive prowess was below Canha’s in 2021, at least according to Statcast. Whereas they valued Canha as 3 OAA, Pederson is -5. Pederson has also seen his offensive numbers slide in recent years. After he logged a wRC+ of 116 or higher in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019, his slash line over the past couple seasons is .227/.304/.416, wRC+ of 93. His one-year deal that he signed with the Cubs for 2021 has a mutual option valued at $10MM, which is likely to be bought out by Atlanta at $2.5MM.

Kevin Pillar (33): Pillar signed a one-year deal with the Mets this offseason that came with a 2021 salary of $3.6MM, as well as an option for 2022. It’s a $2.9MM player option with no buyout, but if he doesn’t pick it up, the team has a $6.4MM club option with a $1.4MM buyout. In 124 games this year, Pillar hit .231/.277/.415 for a wRC+ of 90, while playing all three outfield positions. It seems unlikely that the team would pick up the club option, meaning Pillar will have to decide whether he would rather take the $2.9MM contract or turn that down in favour of the $1.4MM, then try to make up the difference in free agency.

Jurickson Profar (29): Profar was already written about in MLBTR’s posts about first basemen and second basemen. He can opt out of the remaining two years and $14MM on his contract, but seems unlikely to do so, given his meager .235/.335/.336 line on the season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/10/21

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Catching up on minor league moves from around baseball….

  • The Cardinals outrighted Seth Elledge to Triple-A Memphis after the righty cleared waivers.  Elledge was designated for assignment prior to the Cards’ appearance in the NL wild card game.  The right-hander has pitched exactly 11 2/3 innings for St. Louis in each of the last two seasons, and also posted identical 4.63 ERAs in both campaigns.  Originally acquired by the Mariners for Sam Tuivailala in July 2018, Elledge has some solid numbers at the lower levels of the minors but has struggled in two seasons at Triple-A, with a 5.66 ERA over 70 innings for Memphis.

East Notes: Rasmussen, Girardi, Orioles, Nationals

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The Rays first looked into acquiring Drew Rasmussen from the Brewers last offseason, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes, well before Tampa finally landed the right-hander as part of the Willy Adames trade in May.  However, Tampa Bay’s interest in Rasmussen really dates back to when the Rays selected him with the 31st pick of the 2017 draft, though a signing never took place because a post-draft physical revealed elbow damage, and led to the second Tommy John surgery of Rasmussen’s young career.

The lack of a deal was a disappointment for both Rasmussen and for veteran Rays scout Paul Kirsch, who brought Rasmussen to the team’s attention after evaluating his high school outings.  Kirsch did finally get to see Rasmussen pitch for the Rays in Seattle this past summer, which by that point counted as a rare trip to the ballpark for Kirsch after a three-year battle with ALS.  Kirsch passed away in September, and Rosenthal’s piece serves as a moving tribute to Kirsch, a beloved figure in the Rays organization and around the scouting community.

More from around both the AL and NL East…

  • The Phillies haven’t yet had any talks with manager Joe Girardi about his contract, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitted to media (including The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) earlier this week that he “didn’t even know” about the Phillies’ club option on Girardi for 2023 until asked by a reporter.  2022 is the last guaranteed season of Girardi’s original three-year contract with the club, and Dombrowski didn’t believe the manager would be bothered by the lack of longer-term security, and added that “I think Joe did a good job for us.”  Girardi is 110-112 in his first two seasons in Philadelphia, a lack of success that has largely been attributed to the Phillies’ leaky bullpen and flawed roster construction moreso than any specific failings on the manager’s part.  Former Phils GM Matt Klentak hired Girardi after the 2019 season, before Dombrowski replaced Klentak last winter.
  • Cedric Mullins’ tremendous season cemented him as a building block for the Orioles, and Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun figures Mullins, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander have become the team’s top outfield combination heading into 2022, with Ryan McKenna likely the top bench option.  The O’s have enough young outfield depth, however, that the position could be an area of surplus for the offseason.  If the Orioles look to trade from this surplus, Santander’s name has surfaced in trade rumors in the past, but his stock has likely fallen after an injury-shortened season.
  • Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has already prioritized some offseason changes in how the Nats scout and develop their players, due to a lack of recent help in the minor league pipeline.  The draft is the most glaring example of this issue, as MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman notes that Anthony Rendon (picked sixth overall in 2011) is the last Washington draft pick taken in any round to generate more than 1.0 WAR for the team.  Of course, the Nationals have lost their share of picks for compensation purposes, and they’ve also traded some prospects (Lucas Giolito, first and foremost) who went on to become established big leaguers for other teams.  While these moves culminated in Washington’s 2019 World Series title, the thinned-out farm system has become more glaring in the wake of the Nationals’ 91-131 record since winning that championship.

Extension Candidate: Jose Berrios

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“However, it still wasn’t enough to get the Blue Jays into the playoffs” is the inevitable add-on to any description of the Jays’ many positives in 2021, as despite winning 91 games, Toronto fell a game short of a wild card berth.  For instance, Jose Berrios came as advertised for the Jays, posting a 3.58 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate over 70 1/3 innings after Toronto acquired the righty from the Twins in a blockbuster of a trade deadline swap.

The Jays had the third-highest fWAR (7.1) of any group of starting pitchers in baseball from August 1 onward, as Berrios joined with Robbie Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, and Steven Matz to quietly turn Toronto’s rotation into one of the best in the league.  Berrios threw the second-most innings of any in that group, as his durable right arm proved especially valuable when Ryu battled some injury problems down the stretch.

And yet, it was still wasn’t….you know the rest.  While the Jays’ window of contention still looks to be wide open going forward, their near-miss in 2021 was costly since free agents Ray, Matz, and Marcus Semien could all be playing in other uniforms next year.  The clock is also now ticking a little louder on Berrios, who is under control for one more season before hitting free agency himself after the 2022 campaign.

That extra year of team control only added to Berrios’ value as a Twins trade chip, and in landing Berrios, the Blue Jays gained some insurance if Ray and/or Matz do leave this winter.  But, that insurance came with a steep premium, as the Jays had to surrender two consensus top-100 prospects to Minnesota — Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick of the 2020 draft), and Simeon Woods Richardson, one of the young arms the Jays acquired as part of the Marcus Stroman trade in 2019.

Toronto was willing to meet the Twins’ asking price in ordre to have Berrios on hand for two postseason pushes, and now that first push has come up empty-handed.  Signing Berrios to a contract extension would certainly alleviate a lot of the extra pressure inevitably associated with that trade, not to mention the more important big-picture aspect of locking up a front-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.

Looking at recent extensions for starting pitchers, Lance McCullers Jr. signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros last March that might serve as a floor for a new Berrios contract.  McCullers was entering his age-27 season at the time of the signing, and Berrios just turned 27 last May.  The McCullers extension also only covered his 2022-26 free agent years, as the righty and the Astros had already agreed to a $6.5MM salary for 2021, McCullers’ last arbitration-eligible year (though the deal did provide McCullers with a $3.5MM signing bonus).

As per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Berrios is projected to earn $10.9MM in his final arbitration-eligible season of 2022, a hefty bump from his $6.1MM salary from 2020.  So while something in the range of that salary could be baked into a potential extension, Berrios has the extra security of knowing he has a nice payday already coming his way this winter.

I cited McCullers as a floor rather than a true comp for a Berrios extension because Berrios has simply been the more valuable pitcher.  McCullers had posted some very solid career numbers at the time of his extension, though only over 508 2/3 innings, as a Tommy John surgery and some other injuries limited his usage.  If anything, the Astros were rolling the dice in committing $85MM to a pitcher with McCullers’ injury history, though his strong performance in 2021 should help quiet some doubts.

By contrast, Berrios has been the picture of durability throughout his big league career, never once making a trip to the injured list with either the Twins or Blue Jays.  Berrios has tossed at least 192 innings in each of the last three 162-game seasons, and his 647 2/3 IP since the start of the 2018 season ranks fifth among all pitchers in baseball.  Beyond just the durability, Berrios also has a 3.71 ERA/3.96 SIERA over the last four seasons, with an above-average 24.9% strikeout rate.  Berrios’ hard-hit ball numbers are a little inconsistent, but 2021 saw him post the best grounder rate (42.8%) and walk rate (5.8%) of his career.

With this track record, Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman can surely argue that if McCullers is getting $85MM over five years, their client’s extension should be worth well over $100MM, and likely closer to $120MM in order to keep him away from free agency.  Should Berrios post his typical numbers in 2022, he’ll certainly land a nine-figure deal next offseason, and his camp will undoubtedly keep a close eye on how the free agent deals signed by Ray, Stroman, and Kevin Gausman this offseason will raise the bar for the pitching market.

It should be noted that Berrios has already been vocal about his desire to test free agency.  “[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value….We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be,” Berrios told The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller back in July.  Berrios turned down extension offers from the Twins in the past and also went to an arbitration hearing with the team to determine his 2020 salary.

In short, it might be that nothing short of an overpay on the Blue Jays’ part would convince Berrios to forego his shot at the open market.  Since George Springer is the only Jay guaranteed money beyond the 2023 season, Toronto has plenty of open payroll space to work with, but with some caveats.  The Blue Jays will have to do some spending to replace or re-sign their impending free agents, and the team’s list of future commitments will grow exponentially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, etc. are inked to extensions of their own.

Extending Berrios could be a tall order for the Toronto front office, though the team undoubtedly factored this into their plans when they traded for him in the first place.  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Jays’ backup plan is surely to recoup draft pick compensation for Berrios via the qualifying offer (assuming the QO rules aren’t changed in collective bargaining negotiations) to help fill the dent left in the farm system by the departures of Martin and Woods Richardson.  While the sting of that trade will be erased if Berrios does help the Jays to some October success in 2022, the club will certainly explore ways to keep Berrios in the fold for more than just one more run at a championship.

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