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Injury Notes: Harper, Schwarber, Daza, Harris, Canterino

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Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper, on the shelf due to June surgery to repair a broken left thumb and also playing through a torn UCL in his right elbow, is backing off his throwing program due to ongoing stiffness in his right elbow, Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson told reporters this week (link via Scott Lauber of the Philly Inquirer).  Harper played through that ligament tear for months before an errant Blake Snell heater broke his left thumb and forced him to the injured list, though he’d been limited to DH work because the elbow tear prevented him from throwing.

Offseason Tommy John surgery is a possibility, though there’d been some hope that after receiving an injection in May, Harper might yet be able to gut it out and play right field upon returning.  For now, the Phils are just going to “concentrate on the hitting” aspect of Harper’s recovery, per Thomson, who added that there’s “no doubt in my mind” Harper will be back in the lineup this season.  He still needs to regain some flexibility in his thumb, from which doctors removed three pins back on Aug. 1.  Given the lengthy layoff, Harper will also need a minor league rehab assignment of some length.

More on other injury situations from around baseball…

  • In another concern for the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber left today’s game with what Thomson told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) was a mild right calf strain.  Schwarber will undergo tests but is currently considered day-to-day.  With an NL-leading 34 home runs, Schwarber has provided his typical power in his first season in Philadelphia, and the Phillies can only hope that the calf strain won’t require a lengthy IL stint.
  • Outfielder Yonathan Daza suffered what the Rockies described as a left shoulder sprain in today’s game against the Cardinals.  Daza suffered the injury while making a running catch to rob Nolan Arenado of a hit in the first inning, as the momentum took Daza to the ground and he immediately grabbed at his shoulder.  Now in his third MLB season, Daza has hit .299/.345/.367 over 307 plate appearances with Colorado in 2022, getting the majority of playing time as the Rockies’ starting center fielder.
  • Will Harris has yet to pitch in 2022, and the veteran reliever has now suffered another setback in the form of a groin injury.  (The Washington Post’s Andrew Golden was among those to report the news.)  Harris underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June 2021 and then a related pectoral surgery last March, but the righty seemed to be on the way back when he started a minor league rehab assignment in late July.  However, Harris hasn’t pitched with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate since August 2, bringing fresh doubt as to whether or not he can return to a big league mound before the season is over.  It is possible Harris has already thrown his last pitch as a National, since his three-year, $24MM deal with the team is up at season’s end.
  • Twins pitching prospect Matt Canterino will undergo Tommy John surgery this month, as initially reported by SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link).  Canterino has been plagued by elbow injuries for the better part of two seasons, limiting the right-hander to just 60 total innings since the start of the 2021 minor league season.  As Twins assistant GM Jeremy Zoll told The St. Paul Pioneer Press’ Betsy Helfand and other reporters, “it felt like we didn’t have any more stones to turn over, and Matt was feeling like surgery was the right call for him to try and get him back up and running from there.”  Canterino was the Twins’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and he has an impressive 1.48 ERA and 39.16% strikeout rate over 85 career innings in pro ball.  As per the normal timeline for TJ recovery, Canterino won’t be back until August 2023 at the absolute earliest, and it is quite possible he’ll be sidelined until Spring Training 2024.

Mets Reinstate Dominic Smith From 10-Day IL, Option Him To Triple-A

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The Mets reinstated Dominic Smith from the 10-day injured list and then optioned the first baseman to Triple-A Syracuse.  Smith has yet to play in the second half of the season, as a right ankle sprain sent him to the IL (via retroactive placement) on July 17.

Smith has already seen 20 games’ worth of action with Syracuse this season, both on a rehab assignment for his ankle and due to a demotion from the Mets’ active roster back in June.  In the big leagues, Smith has hit only .194/.276/.284 in 152 plate appearances, his second consecutive down year amidst several trade rumors and the seeming reality that the Mets have simply moved on to other options at the first base/DH spot.  Pete Alonso’s presence was already going to limit Smith’s playing time, but New York has turned to several other players for at-bats besides Smith, leaving him frustrated.

The 27-year-old recently spoke about that frustration with MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, but also with off-the-field problems that left Smith “in a bad spot” with his mental health.

“I wasn’t happy at the field.  I wasn’t happy playing baseball at all,” Smith said.  “I wasn’t happy when I did good. I wasn’t happy when I did bad….It was just stuff not going my way in life.  I just felt like things couldn’t get worse, and then they seemingly did, and it kept snowballing worse and worse.  You’re trying to control everything, and you just seem like you can’t control anything.”

Fortunately, Smith is in a better mental place and “just at peace right now.”  He’ll continue to take the field at Triple-A and see if he can get himself on track as part of the Mets’ plans at least in 2022.  His longer-term future in Queens is in doubt, as Smith put it plainly, “with the way I played this year, I don’t know if they want to bring me back for how much my contract is.”  Smith earned $3.95MM this season and has two arbitration-eligible years left before free agency, so it remains to be seen if the Mets would just non-tender Smith altogether or if they could arrange a trade.

A’s Release Jed Lowrie

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Aug. 11: The A’s announced that Lowrie has been released.

Aug. 10: The Athletics announced a series of roster moves prior to today’s game, recalling left-hander JP Sears and selecting the contract of outfielder Cal Stevenson. In corresponding moves, righty Paul Blackburn has been placed on the 15-day injured list and infielder Jed Lowrie has been designated for assignment. Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle relays word from the team that Blackburn’s injury is an inflamed right middle finger.

Lowrie, 38, is a veteran playing in his 14th MLB season, with seven of the last nine being in Oakland. He signed a two-year deal with the Mets prior to the 2019 season, which turned out to be a disaster as mounting injuries limited Lowrie to just nine games over the course of that contract. He returned to Oakland last year and had a nice bounceback, hitting at a league average rate over 139 games.

The A’s brought him back for 2022 on a modest $850K salary, with a $100K bonus for spending 60 days on the active roster and a $150K bonus for being traded. With Oakland undergoing a massive sell-off during the offseason, it seems like the A’s wanted Lowrie aboard as a competent veteran presence amid their roster of youngsters. If he played well enough to be shipped out for prospects at the deadline, that would have been a nice bonus. Unfortunately, Lowrie has a .180/.245/.263 line on the season for a wRC+ of just 49. Now that the deadline has passed, it seems that the A’s will use the season’s final few months to evaluate younger players, with Lowrie getting nudged out of the picture.

One of those younger players getting a shot for Oakland down the stretch is Stevenson. The 25-year-old was a 10th round pick of the Blue Jays in 2018 but has since been a part of numerous trades. He went to the Astros alongside Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini in the 2019 deal for Derek Fisher. Houston then traded him to Tampa in 2020 as part of the Austin Pruitt deal. The Rays sent Stevenson to the A’s last month as part of the return for Christian Bethancourt.

The left-handed hitter has always carried himself well at the plate, posting double-digit walk rates at each of his minor league stops and always getting his wRC+ above 100, indicating above-average production. He first reached Double-A in the Rays’ organization last year, getting into 92 games, walking 15.3% of the time and hitting .254/.368/.403. That amounted to a wRC+ of 118, or 18% above average, with 17 stolen bases thrown in for good measure. This year, he’s been in Triple-A all year, split between the Durham Bulls and the Las Vegas Aviators. In 73 combined games, he’s amazingly walked in 15.3% of his plate appearances again, while hitting .275/.387/.402 for a wRC+ of 113, swiping 15 bags in the process. He’ll get a chance to see how he carries himself against big league pitching over the final few weeks of 2022, before the A’s decide how to proceed with building their roster for next season.

It’s unclear how long Blackburn will be out of action, but it seems like Sears will at least get a couple of turns in the rotation. The 26-year-old Sears was one of the players who came over from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade just over a week ago. He pitched in seven games for the Yanks this year but will be making his Oakland by starting today’s game, taking the place of Blackburn, who was the originally scheduled starter.

Tigers To Select Daniel Norris

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Left-hander Daniel Norris is returning for a second big league stint with the Tigers, the team announced to reporters Thursday. Norris, who signed a minor league deal after being cut loose by the Cubs, will start tomorrow’s game for the Tigers. He’ll make at least two starts, tweets Evan Woodbery of MLive.com. The Tigers will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move before tomorrow’s game.

Further opportunities beyond these two scheduled outings for Norris will be dependent on the lefty’s performance and the health of the other options on the roster. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets that veteran Michael Pineda is headed out on a rehab assignment and could only need two starts himself, for instance, so there’s likely some correlation there.

Norris, 29, was one of three lefties the Tigers acquired in the 2015 trade that sent David Price to the Blue Jays. (Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt also went to Detroit in that swap.) He spent the 2015-21 seasons with the Tigers organization, working as both a starter and reliever while batting a lengthy run of health issues — most notably a frightening bout with thyroid cancer which he thankfully overcame.

The Tigers flipped a then-struggling Norris to the Brewers for minor league righty Reese Olson last summer on July 30, and his results didn’t improve following the swap. He became a free agent after the season and inked a one-year, $1.75MM deal with the Cubs that didn’t pan out as hoped; in 30 innings with Chicago, Norris logged an unsightly 6.90 ERA with a career-best 32.1% strikeout rate but also career-worst marks in walk rate (15.7%) and home run rate (2.10 HR/9).

Since returning to the Tigers organization, Norris has made three starts in Triple-A and allowed a total of two runs on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts. He spent the season in the Cubs’ bullpen and thus wasn’t stretched out much at the time he re-upped with the Tigers, but he did toss four shutout innings with one hit, no walks and three strikeouts in his most recent outing (against the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, coincidentally enough).

This could prove to be a short stint on the roster for Norris. However, with each of Pineda, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Beau Brieske, Rony Garcia and Spencer Turnbull all on the injured list — plus Eduardo Rodriguez still working his way back from the restricted list — there’s enough uncertainty on the staff that Norris could earn himself a longer leash if he shows well in his first couple outings.

Latest On Shane Baz, J.P. Feyereisen

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A 2022 return for Shane Baz is looking increasingly doubtful, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Rays skipper Kevin Cash told the Rays beat this week that a recent scan of Baz’s right elbow went “well,” but Baz still won’t begin even light throwing for at least another two weeks.

That timetable would give Baz, who’s been out since July 14 due to an elbow sprain, six weeks to go from playing catch, to throwing bullpen sessions, to facing live hitters, to a minor league rehab assignment and eventual reinstatement from the injured list. Baz was moved to the 60-day IL just two days after the team placed him on the 15-day IL and announced a four-week shutdown, so they’ve clearly been expecting a lengthy absence all along.

That 60-day period would allow Baz to be activated in mid-September, although following this latest update, it sounds as though a late-September or early October return is a best-case scenario. In theory anyway, that could set the stage for a postseason return, particularly if the Rays make a deep run, though both Baz and the team have several hurdles yet to clear before that’s an earnest consideration.

Ranked by Baseball America earlier this season as the top pitching prospect in the entire sport, the 23-year-old Baz has been limited to just six appearances on the season — the final of which saw him surrender seven runs in 2 1/3 frames before heading to the injured list. The 6’2″ righty has overwhelmed Triple-A lineups, pitching to a 1.58 ERA in parts of two seasons, and carries a 4.02 ERA in a smaller sample of 40 2/3 big league innings.

Baz has been one of several notable arms absent from the Rays’ rotation for much of the season. Also  on the shelf for a notable portion of the season thus far have been Tyler Glasnow, Luis Patino, Brendan McKay, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming (all of which have come in addition to briefer IL stints for righty Drew Rasmussen and breakout lefty Jeffrey Springs).

Beyond the continued no-throw period for Baz, there’s ominous news regarding reliever J.P. Feyereisen; Topkin further reports he’ll head for an MRI after experiencing shoulder discomfort while playing catch. That scan will take place today.

Acquired from the Brewers in the trade that sent Willy Adames to Milwaukee last year, Feyereisen has been one of baseball’s best relievers since coming to Tampa Bay. Already a solid member of the Milwaukee relief corps, he’s broken out with a 1.48 ERA in 61 innings since the trade — including a staggering 24 1/3 innings of shutout baseball to begin the 2022 season. Feyereisen punched out 29.1% of his opponents this season against a 5.8% walk rate before hitting the injured list due to an impingement in his right shoulder. Presumably, a potential timetable for Feyereisen’s return will become clearer following today’s imaging, but he’s already missed more than two months on the injured list.

In more positive news on the injury front, the Rays announced this week that outfielder Manuel Margot, who’s been out since mid-June with a sprained patellar tendon in his knee, has been cleared for a rehab assignment. Margot went 0-for-3 with the Rays’ Rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate last night and figures to move up the ladder over the next couple weeks. He’s been on the injured list since June 21 and is eligible to be reinstated from the 60-day IL on Aug. 20.

Reds Select Chuckie Robinson

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The Reds have selected the contract of catcher Chuckie Robinson from Triple-A Louisville, per a club announcement. Fellow backstop Aramis Garcia was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Robinson, 27, will be making his Major League debut if he gets into tonight’s Field of Dreams game against the Cubs. That’s far from a given, as Cincinnati has a pair of catchers on the roster already: rookie Michael Papierski and veteran Austin Romine. Robinson has been tabbed as the Reds’ 27th man for tonight’s game — both teams are permitted one extra player —  so it could be a brief stay on the roster for him.

Originally selected by the Astros in the 21st round of the 2016 draft, Robinson made his way to the Reds organization in the minor league phase of the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. Robinson posted solid numbers at the Double-A level in 2021-22 and ascended to the Triple-A ranks for the first time in his career earlier this summer. Overall, he’s hitting a combined .263/.318/.403 in 201 plate appearances this season. He’s connected on five homers, nine doubles and a triple while also going 4-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Defensively, he’s caught 26% of runners who’ve attempted to steal against him this season and carries a hefty 34% caught-stealing rate across parts of six minor league seasons.

Garcia landed on the injured list last month with a finger injury, and while x-rays initially came back negative, an additional set of scans eventually revealed a fracture. He could technically still return in the middle of next month — his original IL placement came on July 7 — but the team has yet to provide a formal timetable or say whether he’s expected to make it back this season.

Tigers Fire General Manager Al Avila

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The Tigers announced that they have parted ways with executive vice president and general manager Al Avila, effective immediately, per a press release from the team. Sam Menzin, vice president and assistant general manager, will continue as the day-to-day contact for the team, per the release. The club’s chairman and CEO Christopher Ilitch says that he will oversee the search for Avila’s replacement.

“Once I decided to make a change, I sat down with Al and thanked him for his nearly 22 years of service to our organization,” Ilitch says in the press release. “Al’s loyalty and dedication has served as an example to all during his time as a leader in our baseball operations department. I will oversee the search process for our next baseball operations leader, in collaboration with several members of our baseball and business operations executive teams.”

Avila is also quoted in the release: “For nearly 22 years, I have given my heart and soul to this franchise, and I want to thank Mr. and Mrs. Ilitch, along with Chris, for the opportunity and treating me and my family as their own,” he says. “We’ve celebrated successes and enjoyed great moments, and I’m proud to have worked with so many talented people in baseball operations and throughout the organization. I’ll cherish our friendships and the successes we all celebrated together. To Tigers fans, you’re the best and you deserve a winner. I wish the results would have been better this season but know there is a lot to look forward to in the coming years.”

Avila, 64, has been the club’s general manager for a few years now, taking over in late 2015 when Dave Dombrowski departed. The club has effectively been in a deep rebuild for the entirety of his tenure, registering a winning percentage below .400 for four straight seasons from 2017 to 2020. They showed some signs of promise last year and then acted aggressively this winter, hoping to return to contention this season. However, they’ve instead suffered a dismal campaign, compounded by various injuries, resulting in a club sporting a record of 43-68, ahead of only the A’s among American League teams. With the rebuild struggling to bear fruit, it seems the club has decided to change course and will begin looking for a new front office arrangement for the upcoming offseason.

Though Avila’s been the key front office person in Detroit for seven years now, his time with the club actually goes back much farther. He was first hired in 2002, having already accrued a decade of experience in baseball, first with the Marlins and then the Pirates. His first role with the Tigers was assistant general manager and vice president, until his promotion, which made him the first Cuban-born general manager in baseball history.

When he took over as general manager in August of 2015, the rebuild had essentially already begun, as the club traded David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria prior to the trade deadline, while Dombrowski was still at the helm. The club managed to put up a winning record in 2016 but was dismal in the seasons after that. They bottomed out in 2019, going 47-114 for a winning percentage of just .292.

Of course, one benefit of poor seasons is the ability to restock the farm system, with the Tigers having a number of high profile first round draft picks in recent years. Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Casey Mize, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jackson Jobe and Jace Jung have been the club’s first round picks since Avila took over, with both Mize and Torkelson having been selected first overall.

With some of that group reaching the majors in recent years, the club had a decent showing in 2021. Their 77-85 record was much more palatable than previous seasons, leading the team to believe it was time to act aggressively and be done with the tanking process. The Tigers followed through by spending big, giving a $140MM contract to Javier Baez, $77MM to Eduardo Rodriguez, $13MM to Andrew Chafin and $5.5MM to Michael Pineda. The club also turned to the trade market, acquiring Tucker Barnhart from the Reds and Austin Meadows from the Rays.

Unfortunately, all of those moves have failed to work out for various reasons, which only compounded other issues on the roster. The mercurial Baez is hitting .220/.262/.372 on the season for a wRC+ of 77. Rodriguez has only made eight starts for the team due to injuries and personal issues. Chafin has pitched well but he can opt-out of the second year of his deal, which he seems likely to do. Pineda has only made ten starts due to injuries and has a 5.27 ERA on the year. Barnhart has hit .198/.258/.228 for a wRC+ of 41, while Meadows has only played 36 games due to various injuries.

In addition to the struggles of the new additions, the club’s core pieces also failed to deliver in different ways. Former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson made the Opening Day roster but struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors last month. Riley Greene missed the start of the season due to injury and has hit at a below-average level since joining the team. Matt Manning has been limited to just four starts on the year due to injuries, while Mize made just two appearances before Tommy John surgery ended his season.

Not all of that can be placed at Avila’s feet, of course, certainly not the injuries. Still, after years and years of agonizing rebuilding, the club and its fans were surely hoping for more signs of good things to come over the horizon and have found little to none of it this year.

Ilitch and the Tigers will now try to find a new leader to guide the team into its next stage. Given the club’s struggles this year, the organization will be looking ahead to another strong draft position next summer, in order to add to the talent youngsters who, despite their struggles in 2022, could still be key players in seasons to come. There’s also another important pivot point coming up over the horizon, as the last guaranteed season of Miguel Cabrera’s massive contract is 2023, which will free up both a roster spot and plenty of payroll space. The person who decides how to handle those situations in the future will be determined in the months to come.

Michael Brantley Going For Second Opinion On Injured Shoulder

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The Astros have been without Michael Brantley for six weeks, and there’s no clear timetable for his potential return. Acting manager Joe Espada told reporters this afternoon that the veteran outfielder was currently away from the team as he sought a second opinion on his injured right shoulder (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Espada declined to elaborate when asked whether that meant surgery was on the table.

Houston hasn’t revealed many specifics about Brantley’s injury — the Astros tend to play things close to the vest when providing health updates generally — but the announcement of a second opinion certainly seems alarming. It comes just days after general manager James Click acknowledged that “with every passing day, you have to kind of take an honest look” at whether the five-time All-Star will be able to make it back at all in 2022. At the very least, it doesn’t seem he’ll be back imminently.

Owners of an 11-game cushion in the AL West, the Astros can certainly afford to play things cautiously with their injured players. They’d obviously love to top the Yankees for home field advantage in the American League playoff field, but Houston’s a virtual lock to hold onto one of the top two seeds in the Junior Circuit to earn a first-round bye. Still, it’d be ideal to get Brantley some at-bats late in the regular campaign to get back to game speed before the playoffs. Whether the 35-year-old will be able to make it back at any point, regular season or postseason, appears murky.

Losing Brantley for the postseason, if it comes to that, would be a tough blow to the Houston lineup. He’s remained one of the game’s preeminent “professional hitters,” carrying a .288/.370/.416 line across 277 plate appearances. Brantley only has five home runs, but he’s picked up 14 doubles and walked more often than he’s struck out (11.2% against 10.8%, respectively). He’s in the waning months of the two-year, $32MM contract he signed to return to Houston over the 2020-21 offseason.

Since Brantley went down, the club has relied on Chas McCormick and Aledmys Díaz as its primary left field options. Both players are having nice seasons, but Díaz is the top depth infielder while McCormick would be in the best position to take center field playing time if the team were to move away from the struggling Jake Meyers. They’ve rotated Yordan Alvarez into left field on occasion, but keeping him primarily at designated hitter could be the best way to ensure he’s holding up physically to have his bat in the lineup on a daily basis. Rome tweeted yesterday that newly-acquired Trey Mancini was taking some pregame reps in left field as well. Mancini started 13 games in the corner outfield with the Orioles this season but spent the bulk of his time at either first base or designated hitter. He’s not logged substantial outfield playing time since 2019.

While the club awaits further word on Brantley, they are set to receive one notable reinforcement over the next few days. Lance McCullers Jr. will be reinstated from the 60-day injured list to start Saturday against the A’s, Espada announced (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). It’ll be the righty’s season debut, his first appearance since he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm during last year’s postseason. Houston will need to create a vacancy on the 40-man roster, although that can be achieved by transferring Brantley to the 60-day injured list (a procedural move since the outfielder certainly won’t be ready for an MLB return within the next two weeks).

McCullers has made four rehab starts over the past couple weeks. He topped out at five innings and 86 pitches with Triple-A Sugar Land on Sunday. It’s unlikely the Astros will throw him right back into a typical starter’s workload out of the gate, but he should have plenty of time to build into that role before the postseason gets underway.

It’s another addition to a rotation that already boasts the majors second-best ERA (3.18). McCullers was arguably the team’s top pitcher in 2021, tossing 162 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with a quality 27% strikeout rate and an excellent 56.4% ground-ball percentage. If he recaptures that kind of form after nearly a year of rehab, he’ll add another high-octane arm to a playoff rotation that’s sure to feature Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez and could also include any of Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier or José Urquidy.

Marlins Sign Josh Rogers To Minor League Contract

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The Marlins signed pitcher Josh Rogers to a minor league contract this afternoon, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The southpaw wasted no time getting into action with his new club, as he took the ball this evening for Triple-A Jacksonville.

Rogers has appeared in the majors in four of the past five seasons. The Louisville product debuted with the Orioles in 2018 and ultimately made eight appearances with Baltimore between 2018-19. After not appearing in the majors in 2020, he resurfaced late last season with the Nationals. Rogers pitched to a 3.28 ERA in six starts down the stretch, earning himself a 40-man roster spot throughout the winter.

The 28-year-old didn’t replicate last year’s strong work, however. He allowed a 5.13 ERA over 26 1/3 innings, striking out only 10.6% of batters faced. He surrendered six home runs in his big league stint and gave up seven longballs in just 12 1/3 frames at Triple-A Rochester. The Nats designated Rogers for assignment amidst their roster shuffle at the trade deadline, and he elected minor league free agency after going unclaimed on waivers.

There’s no sugarcoating how rough Rogers’ numbers this year have been, but he’s only a year removed from a solid season. In addition to his quality work with the Nats last September, he posted a 3.70 ERA across 73 innings in Rochester in 2021. Rogers sits in the 89-90 MPH range with his fastball and doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s a quality strike-thrower who’s gotten a decent number of pop-ups. He adds an experienced depth option to the upper levels of the Miami farm system, one capable of working either out of the rotation or multi-inning relief.

MLBTR Poll: Justin Verlander’s Next Contract

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Last winter, Max Scherzer hit the open market as one of the more unique free agents in recent memory. While most baseball players, and athletes of all kinds, generally decline in quality as they get farther from their 20s, Scherzer was 37 and still playing at an elite level. Though last year was his age-36 season, he turned 37 years old on July 27th. (A player’s age on July 1 is generally considered to be their age for the year.) In that year, he threw 179 1/3 innings and somehow registered a career-best 2.46 ERA. Though he got ground balls at a below-average 33.5% clip, his 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than the mean. He also added 16 1/2 innings of 2.16 ERA ball in the postseason, just for a little icing on the cake.

So, how do you value an elite pitcher who is 37 years old? The answer from the market was high salary over a short term. Scherzer received a three-year deal covering his age-37 through age-39 seasons, with Scherzer turning 40 in the last year of the deal. The deal comes with a $130MM guarantee, spread out evenly with a $43.33MM salary in each year. That AAV shattered the previous record, which was Gerrit Cole’s $36MM. Scherzer can also opt out of the deal after the second year.

This winter might feature a similar but perhaps more extreme free agent. Justin Verlander threw only six innings in 2020 before Tommy John surgery wiped out the rest of that season and all of 2021. After returning to health, he held a showcase for interested teams, eventually re-signing for the Astros. The contract guaranteed him $25MM for 2022, despite having barely pitched for two years. It also came with a $25MM player option for 2023, conditional on Verlander reaching 130 innings pitched this year. Verlander has already surpassed that mark, allowing him to cash in another $25MM salary next year.

However, he’s pitching so well this season that he’s likely to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger payday. Through exactly 130 innings coming into tonight, he has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 37.4% ground ball rate. The strikeouts aren’t as high as Scherzer’s were last season, but his ERA is significantly better, with a lower walk rate and better ground ball rate.

Verlander is older than Scherzer, having turned 39 years old in February. However, if he got an annual average value of $25MM after two lost seasons, what would he get after a Cy Young-caliber campaign, even if he is one year older? It will be a fascinating and unprecedented experiment. Verlander could rightly ask for a similar AAV to Scherzer, in the $40-45MM range, depending on how strong he finishes. But how much term will teams be willing to commit to a player about to enter his age-40 season? How many teams will be willing to go to two years? Will any go to three like they did for Scherzer?

But then what does Verlander want? Would he prefer something like a one-year, $50MM deal or try to land around $40MM annually spread out over three years? Verlander has previously said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s, perhaps pointing towards the latter option, but we can’t really know.

MLBTR readers, what do you think? Below are two polls, one for what kind of term you think Verlander will get and another for what kind of guarantee. Let us know your thoughts.

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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