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Giants, Justin Garza Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants are in agreement with reliever Justin Garza on a minor league deal, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). The right-hander is expected to report to minor league camp, Alexander adds.

That indicates Garza won’t be on the radar for a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. He’ll presumably start the season at Triple-A Sacramento and seek a midseason call-up. The Fullerton product has pitched in the majors in two of the past three years. He logged 21 appearances in Cleveland in 2021. After spending the ’22 campaign in Triple-A, he returned to the big leagues with 17 outings as a low-leverage arm for the Red Sox last season.

Garza has yet to find much success against big league hitters. He posted a 4.71 ERA in his rookie season and allowed 7.36 earned runs per nine for Boston. Garza managed only an 18.7% strikeout percentage and walked upwards of 13% of batters faced for the Sox. He has given up a lot of hard contact in each of his MLB stints.

Things have gone a bit more smoothly in the upper minors. Garza owns a solid 3.98 ERA over parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He has fanned an above-average 27.7% of opposing hitters at that level. Throwing strikes consistently has still been an issue, but the 29-year-old (30 later this month) has shown the ability to miss bats against upper level hitters. He has averaged just under 95 MPH on his sinker in his big league work.

Garza has two minor league options remaining. If the Giants call on him at any point, they could move him between Oracle Park and Sacramento without exposing him to waivers.

Blue Jays Notes: Swanson, Rotation, Clement

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Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson has recently been dealing with a scary situation, as it was announced last week that his son Toby was struck by a car and had to be airlifted to hospital. Thankfully, it seems things have progressed well since then. Swanson spoke with members of the media today, including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, passing along the good news. “I stand here, very happily, telling you that in the next day or two, he should probably be going home.”

Toby’s health is obviously more important than baseball, but it sounds as though Swanson may be able to start turning his attentions back to his upcoming season. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet relays that Swanson threw about 20 pitches today at the club’s complex and is on track to be ready for Opening Day, though he may throw another side session before getting into an organized game. Swanson made 69 appearances for the Jays last year, earning four saves and 29 holds while posting a 2.97 ERA.

Turning to the Toronto rotation, a few question marks have popped up here in camp as both Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah were slowed by some shoulder soreness. The depth was also a bit of a concern, as Yariel Rodríguez was dealing with some back spasms while prospect Ricky Tiedemann was battling inflammation in his calf and hamstring.

As of today, three of those four appear to be progressing in a positive direction, with Manoah being the exception. Per Matheson, Manoah’s shoulder is still sore and he wasn’t able to throw today’s scheduled bullpen session. His recent MRI didn’t show any structural damage but the delays from the continued discomfort are starting to put his readiness for the start of the season in question.

Elsewhere, the news is more positive. Per Nicholson-Smith, the Jays are hopeful that Gausman can be throwing off a mound by Monday and start building up for the season. Tiedemann will be starting Saturday’s game, per Matheson, which could allow him to be almost fully built up by Opening Day. As for Rodríguez, Francys Romero relays that he’s feeling better and will throw live BP tomorrow, with game action to follow if all goes well.

The Jays figure to open the season with José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in three rotation spots. Gausman and Manoah would join them if they were healthy but it sounds as though that’s unlikely to be the case with Manoah and at least somewhat uncertain with Gausman. Both Bowden Francis and Mitch White are getting stretched out in spring and could step into a rotation spot to start the year. If only one is needed, White is out of options but Francis still has one option year remaining. That could give White a leg up but he could also find himself in the bullpen as a long reliever if Francis takes the job.

Rodríguez and Tiedemann will be battling Francis and White for innings as well but they may be held back by their spring delays and general workload concerns. Rodríguez had been working as a reliever in Japan and didn’t pitch at all in 2023 after the World Baseball Classic as he waited to be released from his NPB contract. Tiedemann dealt with various injuries last year and only tossed 47 innings in the minors, followed by 18 more in the Arizona Fall League. The Jays would likely prefer to be cautious with both of them as opposed to rushing them into a season-opening big league jobs.

Elsewhere on Toronto’s roster, the Jays are facing an interesting decision with infielder Ernie Clement, as laid out in a column from Nicholson-Smith. Clement has long been considered a glove-first player but seemed to take a step forward offensively last year. He hit .380/.385/.500 in his 52 big league plate appearances and .348/.401/.544 in Triple-A.

He likely won’t be able to sustain the .391 batting average on balls in play he ran in the majors last year or even the .338 mark he had in Triple-A, as major league average was .297 in 2023. But he clearly has a knack for putting the bat on the ball as he hardly ever strikes out. He was punched out just 7.7% of the time in the big leagues last year and just 5% of the time in Triple-A.

Even passable offense can make him a solid bench piece, since he’s considered a quality defender at multiple positions, having lined up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners in his career. But he’s now out of options and can’t be sent down. The Jays will need at least one bench spot for a catcher and then may need others for guys like Davis Schneider, Daniel Vogelbach, Spencer Horwitz, Nathan Lukes or Santiago Espinal.

Nicholson-Smith speaks to a scout from a rival club who suggests Clement would likely draw interest if the Jays tried to pass him through waivers but that he might be kept around as a backup to shortstop Bo Bichette.

Pirates To Sign Eric Lauer To Minor League Deal

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Left-hander Eric Lauer will be heading to the Pirates on a minor league deal, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The CAA Sports client will presumably be invited to major league camp.

Eric Lauer | Benny Sieu-USA TODAY SportsLauer, 29 in June, has been a viable big league starter at times in his career but is coming off a frustrating season. He opened the year in the Brewers’ rotation but struggled. He had a 5.48 earned run average through nine outings when he was placed on the injured list in late May due to an impingement in right, non-throwing shoulder. He was activated off the IL in mid-June but optioned to the minors.

Things didn’t go much better down on the farm as he posted a 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings down there. He was recalled to the big league club for an outing in late September, after the Brewers had already clinched the division. But that turned into a nightmarish outing, as the lefty was tagged for eight earned runs in four innings. He revealed at that time that he had been battling shoulder and elbow issues throughout the year, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

The Brewers could have retained him for 2024 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $5.2MM. But Milwaukee outrighted him off the roster in the middle of October, which was effectively an early non-tender.

The Bucs will be hoping that those health issues are behind him and he can return to his previous form. Over 2021 and 2022, Lauer tossed 277 1/3 innings for Milwaukee with a 3.47 ERA, striking out 23.8% of batters while giving out walks at an 8.7% clip. Lauer struggled in the shortened 2020 season but was also effective in the two seasons prior to that. With the Padres in 2018 and 2019, he posted a 4.40 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate.

Lauer’s never shown any kind of ace-level upside but he has a proven ability to be a back-of-the-rotation guy, which could be enough for him to be valuable to the Pirates. Their rotation is currently fronted by Mitch Keller but he is followed by a series of question marks.

Veterans Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales were acquired this winter to serve as veteran stalwarts but each of them is coming off a frustrating campaign. Pérez struggled enough last year to get bumped out of the Rangers’ rotation and had some good results out of the bullpen but ultimately finished with a 4.98 ERA on the year as a starter. Gonzales required surgery for a nerve issue in his left forearm after logging just 50 innings over 10 starts.

There are two spots available at the back end, with guys like Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas in the mix for those roles. Everyone in that group is either fairly limited in terms of experience or struggled badly last year or both. JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows could be options in the second half but both are currently recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Given the general rotation uncertainty behind Keller, and the inevitability of pitcher injuries, there should be an opportunity for Lauer if he can get back into his 2021-2022 form. He averaged around 93 miles per hour with his fastball over 2021 and 2022 but was down to 90.8 mph last year, perhaps lending some credence to the fact that he wasn’t fully healthy and providing an explanation for his poor performance.

If things work out especially well for Lauer this year, he could also be kept around for the 2025 season. His service time count is currently at four years and 111 days, meaning he would come up shy of six years even if he made the team out of camp and spent the whole season on the roster. He is out of options, however, so the Bucs would have to remove him from the 40-man entirely if they want him off the active roster at any point.

Lauer will have to earn a roster spot before any of that becomes a concern, of course, but it’s a good fit for both sides. Starting pitching is an obvious weakness for the Pirates and Lauer could find some runway to launch a bounceback campaign for himself.

Red Sox Sign Brayan Bello To Extension

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The Red Sox announced they have signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year extension with a club option for 2030. It will give the team an extra two years of control over the 24-year-old and reportedly has a $55MM guarantee. Bello had previously been controllable through the 2028 season, but the Sox have locked in one would-be free agent year and also secured a club option for a second season that’s said to be valued at $21MM. Bello is represented by ISE Baseball.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay the full breakdown. Bello will get a $1MM signing bonus and salary of $1MM here in 2024, followed by successive salaries of $2.5MM, $6MM, $8.5MM, $16MM and $19MM. There’s also a $1MM buyout on the $21MM club option. There are also bonuses and escalators based on Cy Young voting and All-Star selections.

Bello, 25 in May, was signed out of the Dominican Republic for a modest bonus of $28K. But he continued to find success as he moved up the minor league ladder, climbing prospect lists in the process. Baseball America had him in the 15-20 range of their list of the top 30 Red Sox prospects in 2020 and 2021, then vaulted him up to #5 going into 2022. That was based on a 2021 season wherein Bello tossed 95 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.87 earned run average, 32.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate while also keeping about half of balls in play on the ground.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster late in 2021 to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. In 2022, he posted a 2.76 ERA at the Triple-A level and also got to make a brief major league debut, tossing 57 1/3 innings. His 4.71 ERA in that time wasn’t especially strong but his 55.7% ground ball rate and .404 BABIP suggested at least some of that was misfortune.

Last year got out to a shaky start, as he began the year on the injured list due to some elbow inflammation. He returned in mid-April and had a couple of shaky starts before the Sox decided to option him to the minors. An injury to Garrett Whitlock led to a quick return for Bello and it was at that point that he put together a strong stretch of work that established him as a viable big league hurler.

From his April 28 recall through the end of August, he made 21 starts for the Sox with a 3.20 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate was below average but his 6.4% walk rate and 55% ground ball rate were very strong. He seemed to run out of gas at that point, as he allowed 22 earned run in 26 September innings. Between the poor finish and the rough start, Bello ended up with a 4.24 ERA on the year overall, but the middle section of the season clearly opened some eyes.

It’s obviously a bit favorable to Bello to exclude his worst results, but he was a bit banged up at the beginning of the year and the thud at the end could be chalked up to last year being his largest innings tally thus far. The Sox clearly believe he’s capable of taking a step forward if they are willing to invest in him. He’s already shown he can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeouts might come around eventually, as his 11% swinging strike rate in his career so far is right around league average and he’s punched out 28.9% of hitters faced in the minors.

The Sox have very little starting pitching certainty going forward. Lucas Giolito was signed to a two-year deal this offseason but he now seems to be facing a significant absence due to a partially-torn UCL and a flexor tendon strain. Nick Pivetta is slated for free agency after 2024. That leaves their long-term rotation mix consisting of Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Those are talented arms, but each of Crawford, Whitlock and Houck are still somewhat unestablished, with none of them having tossed 130 innings in a major league season yet. On BA’s current list of the top 30 prospects in the system, only two of the top 10 are pitchers, with Wikelman Gonzalez at #7 and Luis Perales at #9. The latter has yet to reach Double-A and the former has less than 50 innings pitched at that level.

Given those options, it’s understandable why the Sox wanted to build around Bello. And from the player’s perspective, his small bonus means he has yet to bank meaningful earnings, unlike a top draft pick or hyped-up international player who may already have millions stashed away. Bello’s service time clock is currently at one year and 82 days, meaning he wouldn’t have even reached arbitration until after the 2025 season.

A deal has seemed like a strong possibility for some time now. Back in January of last year, the young righty expressed his openness to such an arrangement and reporting from July suggested the club would likely broach the subject at some point. A few weeks ago, further reporting indicated that the two sides were discussing a new deal and it seems they are now making some headway.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Bello is just the fifth pitcher with between one and two years of MLB service time to sign an extension in the past eight years. The two most recent examples — Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider — signed six-year deals worth $53MM and $75MM, respectively. Strider’s contract is a record for this service class and was never likely to be matched by Bello. But the Boston right-hander will settle in just north of Greene’s deal, which was surely a point of focus for Bello and his camp.

Extensions usually feature climbing salaries as the years progress, roughly mirroring the arbitration process. The Sox currently have little on the books that would coincide with the most expensive years of this potential extension. Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026. Adding Bello to that mix will put another salary of note on the payroll and modestly add to the team’s luxury ledger, but the extension is nonetheless an affordable means of locking in some stability while giving the team some upside in the event that Bello takes his game to a new level.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported that the two sides were in “advanced” talks on a deal. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel broke the news that the two parties had agreed on a six-year, $55MM deal.

Tanner Houck, Red Sox Have Discussed Extension

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The Red Sox have reportedly agreed to an extension with young right-hander Brayan Bello but seem to have at least some interest in hammering out another. Righty Tanner Houck told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he has discussed an extension with the club, though nothing is imminent. He had previously discussed the matter with the club a couple of years ago, with nothing developing at that time.

Houck, 28 in June, has posted some intriguing results in the majors but hasn’t yet fully established himself as a viable starter. He has thrown 256 innings over the past four seasons with a 3.86 earned run average. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 51% ground ball rare are both a few ticks better than par while his 8.8% walk rate is right around average.

But last year’s 106 innings pitched were a career high at the big league level, his first time getting over the 70 line. Missing time last year wasn’t his fault, as he was hit in the face by a comebacker and suffered a facial fracture. That injury required surgery and kept Houck on the injured list for over two months. That’s obviously fluky in nature but it still prevented him from getting to a full starter’s workload. In 2022, he also missed time due to lower back inflammation which required surgery, capping him at 60 innings for the year.

Beyond the fact that Houck hasn’t fully built up his workload, there’s also the fact that his results have been better out of the bullpen. For his career, he has a 4.17 as a starter but a 2.68 mark as a reliever, though the latter figure is in a fairly small sample size of just 53 2/3 innings and his peripherals are actually fairly close. His 25.9% strikeout rate as a reliever is just barely higher than his 24.6% clip as a starter, whereas his 9.5% walk rate as a reliever is actually higher than his 8.6% clip as a starter. The wide difference in the ERAs could be down to a bit of luck, as he has a .298 BABIP as a starter but a .274 out of the ’pen, in addition to having a 69.4% strand rate when starting games as opposed to 77.3% as a reliever. His 3.70 and 3.12 FIP as a starter and reliever respectively suggest the difference may not be so wide.

On the other hand, he has significant splits, with lefties having hit him at a .251/.343/.420 rate thus far compared to a line of .214/.282/.283 from righties. If that continues, he might be better served working in a bullpen role where he can be more easily protected from exposure to opposing lefty hitters.

Houck should get plenty of opportunity to prove himself in the rotation this year. The Red Sox came into the winter looking to upgrade the starting staff but haven’t done so. They traded away Chris Sale and signed Lucas Giolito, but the latter now seems like he may be slated for a significant injury absence due to a partial UCL tear and flexor tendon strain.

Assuming Giolito will at least miss the start of the season, the Boston rotation consists of Bello, Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock. Pivetta is an impending free agent and could wind up on the trade block if the Sox are out of contention this summer. Guys like Cooper Criswell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are also on the 40-man roster but none of that trio has even 50 innings pitched in the big leagues yet.

Given Houck’s current status, it may be difficult to line up on a deal. Since he’s unproven as a starter over a full season, the club may not want to make a significant commitment to him. From Houck’s perspective, he may not want to take a low-ball offer at this moment. If he takes advantage of the open rotation in Boston and puts together a strong season in 2024, he could increase his earning power significantly.

He currently has two years and 100 days of service time. That means he is slated to qualify for arbitration for the first time after 2024 and is on pace for free agency after 2027, which will be his age-31 season. Looking to Boston’s long-term payroll picture, Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves made a couple early-offseason strikes to bolster the pitching depth and install a former top prospect as their new left fielder. Their biggest move came right around the New Year with the acquisition and extension of a one-time ace whom they’re hoping will get back on track in 2024.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

While the first few weeks of the offseason were generally fairly quiet around the league, the Braves struck early. They began their work before the offseason technically began. Within two weeks of being bounced in the NL Division Series, Atlanta kept one of their free agents off the market.

The Braves inked Pierce Johnson to a two-year, $14.25MM extension, keeping the deadline pickup in the high-leverage mix after a dominant second half. The bullpen investment continued in early November. Joe Jiménez inked a three-year, $26MM pact (on a rare Atlanta extension that didn’t include a team option at the end) days before he would’ve been able to explore the open market.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff didn’t stop there. They orchestrated the first offseason trade of significance with the White Sox, sending five players to Chicago for lefty reliever Aaron Bummer. It’s a bet on Bummer’s velocity and strong strikeout and ground-ball rates despite his 6.79 ERA from a season ago. Atlanta subtracted back-of-the-roster depth in parting with rotation candidates Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster and infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake. No one from that group projected to play a significant role early in the 2024 season, making that an easier call for the front office.

With that level of early investment in the bullpen, it came as a surprise when the Braves dipped into free agency for yet another power arm who has spent the past couple seasons as a reliever. Reynaldo López inked a three-year, $30MM pact. That price point isn’t too surprising in itself, but the subsequent revelation that the Braves will allow him to compete for a rotation spot was unexpected. López struggled as a starting pitcher early in his career with the White Sox. He has been far better in relief over the last few seasons, yet it’s still fair to question whether he has the level of command necessary to be an effective starter.

López is battling the likes of AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Huascar Ynoa and top prospect Hurston Waldrep for the final spot in the starting five. That’s a high-octane collection of depth arms behind one of the sport’s strongest front fours. Spencer Strider and Max Fried are back in their customary top two rotation spots. The Braves exercised a $20MM option to keep Charlie Morton for his fourth season in Atlanta.

There was never a question they’d add one more established starter behind the Strider, Fried and Morton trio. The source of intrigue was which pitcher that would be. The Braves were tied to Georgia native Dylan Cease in trade rumors early in the winter but balked at the White Sox’s asking price. Ultimately, they turned to a pitcher few expected to be traded: Chris Sale.

Sale narrowly topped 100 innings over 20 starts for the Red Sox last season, his first time hitting the century mark since 2019. A pedestrian 4.30 ERA belied a much more impressive 29.4% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strike percentage. The stuff that had made Sale an ace earlier in his career seems mostly intact. Yet there’s risk in betting on a pitcher who turns 35 this month and has missed extended stretches over the past three seasons because of Tommy John surgery, a broken finger, a wrist fracture, and last year’s bout of shoulder inflammation.

Between that injury history and a hefty $27.5MM salary, it seemed unlikely the Red Sox would find a taker for Sale. Atlanta got around the latter concern by convincing Boston to eat $17MM. With another $10MM of the salary set to be deferred, Sale essentially cost the Braves nothing this year financially. Getting the Sox to pay down that large a portion of the salary required parting with one of Atlanta’s top young players.

While Vaughn Grissom has technically exhausted his prospect eligibility, he was essentially Atlanta’s best young position player who was not already a key piece of the major league roster. The 23-year-old has hit .287/.339/.407 in scattered big league looks over the last two seasons. He’s coming off a .330/.419/.501 showing in Triple-A. Grissom could be an average or better MLB second baseman as soon as this year. His path to playing time on the Truist Park infield has long been blocked, so it seemed the Braves would cash him in for rotation help at some point.

Atlanta doubled down on the dice roll on Sale by reworking his contract. They signed him to a restructured two-year, $38MM deal not long after the trade. That reduced the team’s luxury tax obligations in the short term and tacked on a club option for the 2026 season while guaranteeing the lanky southpaw a $22MM salary for ’25 — a year that had previously been covered by a team option.

That completed the big work on the pitching staff. As has been the case for a few offseasons, the Braves entered the winter with a mostly settled group of hitters. Eight members of last year’s primary lineup are back. The one unsettled position was left field. Atlanta declined a $9MM option on Eddie Rosario, leaving that as the sole lineup spot which they needed to address.

While the Braves loosely floated the possibility of moving Grissom to left field before his inclusion in the Sale trade, they took that off the table at the Winter Meetings. Atlanta leveraged financial space to take a change-of-scenery look at former top prospect Jarred Kelenic. The left-handed hitter was a disappointment in Seattle, where he hit .204/.283/.373 over parts of three seasons.

Kelenic is coming off a career-best offensive showing, as he turned in a decent .253/.327/.419 batting line over 416 plate appearances last year. It wasn’t an entirely positive season, though. He struck out at a borderline untenable 31.7% rate, continuing the issues making contact that have plagued him throughout his career. Kelenic also missed a couple months with a self-inflicted foot fracture sustained when he kicked a water cooler in frustration after a strikeout.

Controllable for five seasons and a year away from arbitration, Kelenic himself isn’t costing the Braves much for the upcoming campaign. They did take a good chunk of dead money off Seattle’s books. The Braves added $24.5MM in salary on Marco Gonzales and Evan White. The actual return — reliever Jackson Kowar, acquired weeks earlier from the Royals for injured starter Kyle Wright, and mid-level pitching prospect Cole Phillips — wasn’t exorbitant. Kelenic will get an opportunity to play every day in left field, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of salary and luxury tax fees they took on to get him.

The Kelenic trade kicked off a series of additions in which the Braves ate underwater contracts to acquire depth pieces of interest. They offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates for nothing more than $2.75MM in savings on his $12MM contract. White went to the Angels in a bizarre move that saw Atlanta take on the deals of infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi. The Braves added an extra $6MM to the books, ostensibly to add Fletcher in the glove-first utility role which Nicky Lopez had played down the stretch.

Atlanta ate all but the league minimum on Stassi and flipped him to the White Sox for nothing, while they ran Fletcher through outright waivers. The latter remains in the organization in a non-roster capacity and could still get to the majors this year, but the subsequent signing of Luis Guillorme to a $1.1MM free agent deal makes him a bit redundant. The Fletcher/White swap seemed unnecessary in the larger context of the offseason.

The Braves made one more trade of this ilk in mid-December. Atlanta absorbed $4MM on Matt Carpenter’s salary to bring in hard-throwing reliever Ray Kerr from the Padres. The Braves released Carpenter (he subsequently signed a big league deal to return to the Cardinals), but Kerr is an intriguing lefty bullpen arm who can still be optioned to the minors. That’s a plus for a team that has seven relievers — Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Jiménez, Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Bummer and Jackson Stephens — who cannot be sent down without clearing waivers. All but Stephens are locks to be in the MLB bullpen if healthy.

It’s debatable whether the series of maneuvers at the back of the roster improves the Braves enough that it was worthwhile. It at least highlights the kind of flexibility afforded the front office by constructing a team with such a strong core. The Braves made a couple other small-scale changes.

They dealt veteran middle reliever Nick Anderson to the Royals, acquired fifth outfielder J.P. Martínez from the Rangers, and took minimal fliers on injury rehabbers Penn Murfee and Ángel Perdomo as forward-looking bullpen moves. It amounts to a lot of tinkering in an offseason that’ll be defined by the Sale, Kelenic and (to lesser extents) López and Bummer acquisitions.

Most of last year’s star-studded group is back. The catching tandem of Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud remains in place. Ditto the starting infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. Defending NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. dodged a scare with his right knee and should be in the Opening Day outfield beside Michael Harris II and Kelenic. Marcell Ozuna is under contract for one more season at designated hitter.

Maintaining perfect continuity is impossible for any team. The Braves parted with Rosario, Wright, Soroka, Grissom and a couple ancillary veteran contributors in the bullpen. Longtime third base coach Ron Washington was finally poached for another managerial opportunity after years of speculation. He’s now in charge of the Angels dugout.

Despite that handful of departures, the Braves again head into the season with one of the strongest teams in the majors. They’re still firmly in their championship window, though the more immediate concern will be snagging a seventh straight NL East title. Next offseason will bring more questions, particularly about the long-term state of the rotation with Fried trending towards free agency.

 

Mariners’ Jackson Kowar Being Evaluated For Possible Arm Injury

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The Mariners’ bullpen has already had its share of injury scares this spring. Fear of a monthslong absence for top setup man Matt Brash has been alleviated with a diagnosis of inflammation in his right elbow, but he’s weeks behind schedule now and will be built up cautiously. Trade acquisition Gregory Santos was shut down for a week earlier this spring due to a lat issue but has resumed throwing and could yet be ready for Opening Day, though that’s contingent on him avoiding any further setbacks of course. Now, Mariners manager Scott Servais tells reporters that right-hander Jackson Kowar is meeting with a doctor tomorrow to have his arm evaluated (X link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

That may not seem like a significant concern, given Kowar’s unsightly big league track record. The former Royals first-round pick and top prospect was traded to Atlanta and then to Seattle in a pair of change-of-scenery swaps over the winter. He’s 27 years old and, in parts of three big league seasons, has yielded more than an earned run per inning (75 runs in 74 frames). He also has a minor league option remaining. On paper, he looked like a long shot to make the team.

But as Divish recently wrote, Kowar has impressed the Mariners in camp. He’s averaged 96.1 mph on his heater in his career but was hitting 98 mph early in camp. Kowar has pitched a pair of scoreless innings, fanned three of his six opponents, and caught the team’s attention with the quality of his changeup. With Brash unlikely to be ready for the opener and Santos also still building up, there was a potential spot for Kowar to claim. Divish noted that he had “seemed to be locking in a spot” before soreness in his arm led to a temporary shutdown. Kowar last pitched on Feb. 28 and is now going for additional testing — an ominous sign.

The Mariners have a knack for unearthing bullpen talent. In the past few years they’ve turned unheralded pickups of Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Justin Topa, Kendall Graveman, Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and others into impact moves. Their ability to find hidden gems to round out the relief corps has allowed the M’s to perennially field strong bullpens and also to avoid the types of multi-year deals for relievers that often turn into landmines. A few short looks in spring training is far too small a sample to indicate Kowar would be the next bargain find for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff, but at the very least, the hard-throwing Kowar was trending in the right direction. At least for now, that’ll be put on hold — hopefully only for a brief period.

Already dealing with a trio of arm scares in the bullpen isn’t an enviable spot to be in — particularly since Seattle traded one of last year’s top setup men, the aforementioned Topa, to the Twins as part of their trade to acquire second baseman Jorge Polanco. The Mariners still have one of the game’s most talented closers in righty Andres Munoz, and they can look to lefties Speier and Saucedo to build on last year’s breakout showings to help form a setup corps. Santos could be ready for Opening Day still, and if not, he and Brash may not be delayed all that long.

But the Mariners were already likely to be relying on some unproven arms — Kowar among them. Righty Trent Thornton had a strong showing after coming over from the Blue Jays in a little-noticed trade last year. Flamethrower Carlos Vargas, acquired in the Eugenio Suarez trade, has a significant ceiling but worrying command issues. Swingman Austin Voth has had flashes of big league success but has lacked consistency. Former eighth-rounder Ty Adcock had a solid debut in ’23, but last year’s 15 2/3 innings in the majors were his first experience above Double-A. Offseason pickups of Mauricio Llovera, Collin Snider and Cody Bolton give the M’s some other options, but none are proven at the big league level. Veterans like Heath Hembree, Ty Buttrey and Trevor Kelley are in camp on non-roster deals.

The Mariners likely wouldn’t shy away from late-spring additions, be they via the trade market, the waiver wire or perhaps a late splash for one of the remaining free-agent relievers of note (e.g. Ryne Stanek). Even in the absence (so far) of a major injury, their depth is already being tested a bit.

Caleb Kilian To Miss Several Months Due To Teres Major Strain

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Cubs manager Craig Counsell provided members of the media, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, updates on some injured players. Right-hander Caleb Kilian has a teres major strain and will be out for a while, probably not back in game action until around the All-Star break. Infielder Nick Madrigal has a mild right hamstring strain, with his prognosis a bit less clear at the moment. “We’re going to progress him over the next week, and then we’ll have a good idea where we’re at,” Counsell said of Madrigal.

Kilian, 27 in June, came over to the Cubs in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Kris Bryant to the Giants. He was added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster in June of 2022 but has spent most of his time since then on optional assignment. He’s only tossed 16 2/3 major league innings so far, having allowed 23 earned runs in that time.

His results in the minors have naturally been better. He has thrown 231 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years, with an earned run average of 4.36. He struck out 22.1% of batters faced in that time, gave out walks at a 9.5% clip and got grounders on roughly half the balls in play he allowed.

The righty would have been in competition for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Four starting jobs are accounted for between Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon, with the final spot up for grabs between guys like Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Porter Hodge.

Kilian would have been in that battle and, even if he didn’t win the gig, he would have been in Triple-A looking to earn the first call-up when a need arose. But he was experiencing some discomfort and underwent an MRI yesterday, which revealed the bad news. He’ll now be out of action for the next few months and won’t be available to the club until the second half of the season, most likely.

As for Madrigal, he also came into camp fighting for a job. The Cubs have a fairly open competition for time at third base, with Madrigal in the mix alongside Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel, as well as a few others. Madrigal’s current injury doesn’t appear to be severe, but if it lingers into the start of the season, it could open up more playing time for Wisdom or Morel until Madrigal is back to full strength.

Madrigal is a hit-over-power guy who has just four home runs in his 846 major league plate appearances. His 4.6% walk rate is also very low but his tiny 8.9% strikeout rate demonstrates he is one of the toughest hitters in the league to punch out. His career batting line of .280/.328/.354 translates to a wRC+ of 90, indicating he’s been about 10% below league average overall. Last year was his first season playing third base at the big league level, moving from his customary second base spot, but he seems to have made the move swimmingly. He was worth eight Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 560 1/3 innings at the hot corner.

Wisdom and Morel have the opposite profile, as both of them are high-power, high-strikeout bats with questionable defense. The club doesn’t have a true designated hitter, so perhaps they could have used Madrigal at third while deploying one of Morel or Wisdom as the DH, but that won’t be an option if Madrigal misses some time.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks followed up their surprising pennant run with an active offseason. They’re still long shots to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, but they go into 2024 with clear expectations of a second consecutive playoff berth.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $35MM
Total spending: $136.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Diamondbacks came up a little short of the second championship in franchise history. After clinching the National League’s last playoff spot on the final weekend of the season, they knocked off the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies en route to the Fall Classic. The Rangers put a stop to that run with a five-game triumph in the World Series, yet the Snakes went into the offseason seeking to build on that finish.

Arizona’s first order of business was to reward their longtime manager. Within the first few days of the offseason, the Snakes signed Torey Lovullo to an extension running through 2026. Now the third-longest tenured manager in the NL, Lovullo seemed as if he might be on the hot seat as recently as 2022. The front office stuck by him through three straight losing seasons in 2020-22 and was rewarded for that patience last year.

Once Lovullo’s contract was settled, GM Mike Hazen and his staff set about strengthening the roster. It wasn’t lost on the front office that their regular season performance — which is likely a better predictor of the future than their small-sample postseason run — was merely fine. Arizona went 84-78 and was outscored by 15 runs. They had clear areas to address in the middle of the rotation and at third base. The impending free agency of left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was another question.

Third base was the first domino to fall. While they were linked to free agents Jeimer Candelario and Justin Turner within the offseason’s first couple weeks, they turned to the trade market. Arizona dealt hard-throwing reliever Carlos Vargas and third catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners for Eugenio Suárez. While Vargas is an interesting developmental flier, the biggest appeal for Seattle was offloading the $13MM which Suárez is owed this year — taking the form of an $11MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $15MM club option for 2025.

Arizona bought a declining asset to some extent. After topping 30 homers in both 2021 and ’22, Suárez hit 22 longballs a season ago. He led the American League in strikeouts for a second consecutive year, punching out 214 times. His .232/.323/.391 batting line was almost exactly league average after accounting for the extreme pitcher-friendly nature of Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. It was his third average or worse offensive showing in the past four years.

Even if Suárez is trending downward as he nears his 33rd birthday, he’s an upgrade over utility types like Emmanuel Rivera and Jace Peterson. Moving to Chase Field should offer a boost to his power production. He draws plenty of walks and is a capable defensive infielder. There’ll be plenty of strikeouts, but that’s a trade-off Arizona was willing to accept to add a righty power bat to a lineup that has been built largely around athletic contact hitters.

They followed up with their big strike for rotation help at the Winter Meetings. The D-Backs landed Eduardo Rodríguez on a four-year, $80MM pact. It’s the franchise’s biggest free agent investment since the ill-fated Madison Bumgarner deal from 2019. Rodríguez’s contract generally aligned with expectations and adds a needed mid-rotation arm.

The southpaw turned in a career-low 3.30 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks in 26 starts for the Tigers last year. He’s familiar with Hazen and Lovullo from their time with the Red Sox, addressing any concerns they might have had after Rodríguez missed a chunk of 2022 attending to a personal matter and vetoed a deadline deal to the Dodgers last summer. He pairs with Merrill Kelly as mid-rotation arms behind ace Zac Gallen. That knocks Brandon Pfaadt into the fourth starter role that had been so problematic last year, both in the regular season and into October.

One can still quibble with the starting pitching depth, but the front office felt the bigger priority after landing Rodríguez was building out the lineup. They stuck with Gurriel in left field, bringing him back on a three-year, $42MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after the second season. Retaining Gurriel and adding Suárez addressed their desire for right-handed bats but still hadn’t satisfied the goal of bringing in a full-time designated hitter.

For that, they turned to lefty-swinging Joc Pederson. The D-Backs brought in Pederson on a one-year, $12.5MM deal. He’s coming off an unspectacular .235/.348/.416 showing for the Giants. Arizona is betting on Pederson to recapture something closer to his excellent 2022 form. He raked at a .274/.353/.521 clip with San Francisco two seasons ago.

Pederson’s hard contact rate remains elite and he posted better strikeout and walk numbers last year than he had in ’22. He’s a limited player — he should be shielded from lefty pitching and is best served as a DH only — but he should hit in the middle third of the lineup when opponents start a right-hander.

Suárez, Rodríguez, Gurriel and Pederson are the four big acquisitions (or retentions, in Gurriel’s case) of the offseason. The Snakes brought in a couple veterans to deepen the bench. They guaranteed Randal Grichuk $2MM, indicating he’ll serve as a right-handed hitting depth outfielder and perhaps a complement to Pederson in the DH slot. Grichuk clobbered lefties in 2023 and has a strong track record against them, making him a sensible fit in that role. Two-time Gold Glove winner Tucker Barnhart inked a minor league pact. He has a good chance to surpass José Herrera as the backup to franchise catcher Gabriel Moreno.

The only other notable transaction was a swap of young players with the White Sox. Arizona dealt lefty-hitting outfielder Dominic Fletcher to Chicago for pitching prospect Cristian Mena. The D-backs have subtracted a couple fringe outfielders via trade — they included Dominic Canzone as part of the Paul Sewald return last summer — reflecting the depth they have on the grass.

Gurriel is locked into left field. Defending Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll will handle the other corner. Defensive stalwart Alek Thomas will man center field. Jake McCarthy is still on hand as a depth option who can play all three outfield spots. Grichuk can play some center field as well, although Arizona’s collection of talented young defenders means he’s likely to spend the majority of his time in a corner or at DH.

Fletcher still has two options remaining, so the Snakes could have kept him in Triple-A Reno. He’s already 26 and wasn’t going to have a clear path to everyday playing time at Chase Field, however. It made more sense to flip to the White Sox, where he entered camp with the leg up on the starting right field job. That allowed the D-backs to bolster their rotation depth, a comparative weak point for Arizona.

Mena, 21, has yet to make his MLB debut. He’s on the 40-man roster and briefly reached Triple-A last season. The 6’2″ righty spent the bulk of the year in Double-A, where he turned in a 4.66 ERA with an impressive 27.9% strikeout rate but an 11.3% walk percentage. He’s still developing as a strike-thrower, but scouting reports praise his curveball and potential for command improvement. Mena could reach the majors at some point this year.

That’s unlikely to be on Opening Day. He’ll likely slot behind Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi and Tommy Henry in the battle for the fifth rotation spot. It’s not a great group and an injury to any of the top four starters could stress the pitching staff. If the Diamondbacks are in contention at the deadline, acquiring rotation depth could again be a summer goal.

Lovullo could lean heavily on the bullpen to help cover for some of the unproven arms at the back of the starting staff. Arizona enters 2024 with the strongest on-paper relief group they’ve had in years. The Sewald trade is a big part of that, although they’ve also been aided by the unheralded Ryan Thompson pickup and steps forward from Kevin Ginkel and Andrew Saalfrank.

The D-backs didn’t make a single major league acquisition to the relief group. Hazen suggested early in Spring Training they could still look for depth additions given the volatility of relief pitching (link via Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). Still, it was far less of a priority than it had been in the last few offseasons. Non-roster lefties Brandon Hughes and José Castillo are the most significant pickups thus far.

Arizona also inked a couple minor league contracts to bolster the infield depth. Kevin Newman and Elvis Andrus are in camp as non-roster shortstops. Lovullo has already declared Geraldo Perdomo his starter at the position. One of Andrus or Newman should make the team as a backup.

Aside from Perdomo, prospects Jordan Lawlar and Blaze Alexander are the only other shortstops on the 40-man roster. It’s better to get Lawlar everyday playing time in the upper minors than to use him sparingly off the major league bench. Alexander has yet to make his MLB debut and struck out at an elevated 27.2% clip in Triple-A. Lawlar might be the first option up if any of the starting infielders suffer an injury. At full health, the D-backs will run a primary group of Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Perdomo and Suárez around the dirt.

Walker, one of the sport’s more quietly productive first basemen, is now a year away from free agency. He and Sewald are the team’s top rentals. Both players are approaching their mid-30s, so the front office might not have much urgency to keep either off the open market. Walker told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro last month that there hadn’t been much talk about an extension, although he indicated he was open to that conversation.

If the front office were to consider extension targets, they might prefer to secure a younger member of the core. They successfully inked Carroll to a $111MM deal last spring, cementing the star outfielder as the face of the franchise. Moreno, who hit .284/.339/.408 in his first full big league campaign, would be the most obvious target for similar overtures this spring. Arizona would presumably love to keep Gallen around for the long haul, but that’s a much taller task. The Cy Young finalist is two years from free agency and trending towards a massive contract.

Whether or not the Diamondbacks can work out long-term deals with anyone this spring, they’ll go into the season with more optimism than they’ve had in years. Their active offseason has pushed their player payroll around $144MM, as calculated by RosterResource. While middle-of-the-pack by league standards, that’s the highest mark in franchise history.

Few people will predict Arizona to close what was a 16-game gap with Los Angeles even before the Dodgers’ offseason spending spree. Anything short of another Wild Card berth would count as a disappointment, though. The Diamondbacks raised expectations in October. Adding Rodríguez, Suárez and Pederson only bolsters that.

The Opener: Spring Breakout, Bello, Trade Market

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With Spring Training more than half over, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Spring Breakout rosters to be announced:

MLB’s Spring Breakout rosters are set to be announced this morning at 10am CT on MLB Network. The new event will see all 30 clubs participate in a prospect showcase during Spring Training with sixteen seven-inning exhibition games across a four day period from March 14-17. The Reds and Cardinals will each participate in two games, while the other 28 organizations will participate in one each. The exhibition will exclusively feature rookie-eligible players and are also set to showcase the automated ball-strike challenge system in certain games. MLB.com has additional details, including broadcast information for all thirty-two exhibition games.

2. Will Red Sox, Bello complete a deal?

As of yesterday, the Red Sox and Brayan Bello are reportedly in “advanced” talks regarding an extension that would keep Bello in Boston beyond the 2028 season, when his team control would otherwise expire. Bello, 25 in May, has made 41 appearances in the majors across the first two seasons of his career and owns a roughly league average 4.37 ERA with a solid 4.11 FIP in 214 1/3 career innings. Notably, the young right-hander led all Red Sox pitchers in both innings (157) and games started (28) during the 2023 campaign. Locking in a young pitching talent who can provide stability to a Boston rotation that has faced plenty of tumult in recent years could be a huge breath of fresh air for Red Sox fans, particularly in the wake of worrisome injury news regarding right-hander Lucas Giolito. Will a deal between the sides be finalized in the coming days?

3. State of the trade market:

While plenty of quality players remain available in free agency with just three weeks to go until Opening Day, there have been some recent indications that teams are beginning to transition from the offseason mentality of improving the roster toward preparing for the regular season in earnest, at least when it comes to the trade market. Often regarded as the offseason’s top trade candidate, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has yet to move, and Chicago brass recently indicated that they expect the 2022 AL Cy Young award finalist to start for the club on Opening Day with “nothing imminent” in terms of a trade for the righty.

Meanwhile, on the buy-side of the trade market, the Pirates have reportedly scaled back their efforts to add a starting pitcher via trade before the season begins. In addition to those reports, the rumor mill has gone quiet regarding some speculative trade candidates such as Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, and Jonathan India in the weeks since camp began. That said, it’s still plausible to imagine trades coming together for players that have been pushed out of their previous roles on their club such as Harold Ramirez of the Rays or J.D. Davis of the Giants, the latter of whom MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed just last night.

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