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Archives for 2024

Details On Max Fried Bidding

By Darragh McDonald | December 11, 2024 at 1:30pm CDT

1:30pm: A’s general manager David Forst denies that the club made a push for Fried, per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (X link)

11:55am: One of the top free agents came off the board this week when the Yankees and Max Fried agreed to a stunning eight-year, $218MM deal. Clubs like the Blue Jays and Red Sox were also known to be in the involved but Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link) reports that the Athletics were “one of the most aggressive teams” in the bidding.

Many fans might roll their eyes at the idea of the A’s getting anywhere near a free agent of this caliber, which would be an understandable position to take. As of a couple of weeks ago, they had never given a free agent more than the $36MM they gave to Yoenis Céspedes back in 2012. They recently broke that record by giving Luis Severino $67MM, a huge jump for them but still relatively modest by league-wide standards and well below the deal that Fried got.

But the A’s have to spend some money somewhere. It was reported this week that the club may need to get its competitive balance tax number up to the $105MM range in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.

That perhaps explains all the recent smoke about an upcoming payroll bump. MLBTR took a detailed look at the A’s last month, in a reporting that references reporting going back to January which hinted at a potential for greater spending. Since then, the A’s have ramped things up with the aforementioned Severino signing. They also reportedly made a strong offer to Sean Manaea, who remains unsigned.

It’s not surprising that they couldn’t get something done with Fried, as the pitching market has been hot. Fried and several other pitchers have exceeded the expectations from the start of the offseason. MLBTR predicted him for six years and $156MM but he blew past that, with guys like Severino, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and other hurlers also outpacing their projections.

It’s generally expected that the A’s will have to overpay to reel in any free agent. Given that the club has been rebuilding for many years and is going to be playing the next three years in a Triple-A park in West Sacramento, no free agents will have them as a first choice. Some guys will simply go where the money is best but some may need a premium before considering the unique circumstances of joining the A’s. That may have been the case with Severino, who was predicted to earn $51MM but got far more than that.

Even if the A’s were theoretically willing to marginally top the Yankees’ offer, Fried may not have taken their money. Still, it suggests that they are still a club to watch in the remainder of the offseason. RosterResource their CBT number is currently at $78MM, so they are still well south of their reported $105MM target. That means they could factor into remaining free agents such as Manaea, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta or others. Even after adding Severino, the rotation stands out as the best way to upgrade the team while also getting their spending up, with their interest in Fried and Manaea reflecting that.

What also may be notable is that the club doesn’t seem to worried about players who rejected qualifying offers. The A’s already forfeited their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft by signing Severino since he rejected a QO from the Mets. Fried and Manaea also rejected QOs, so the interest from the A’s there suggests they may be willing to forfeit another pick.

Another route could be to acquire a player making a notable salary in trade. For instance, the Yankees now have a surplus in their rotation after signing Fried and might look to move the remainder of Marcus Stroman’s contract. He will make $18MM in 2025 and there’s an $18MM player option for 2026 if he throws 140 innings next year. Stroman arguably doesn’t have a great path to a rotation job in the Bronx but could serve as a solid veteran for the A’s.

Elsewhere in the Fried bidding, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that the Red Sox’ offer was “significantly” lower than the Yankees. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Sox were at $190MM over seven years and may have been able to go higher, though with deferrals. Sherman adds that the Rangers were also at $190MM over seven years, though the lack of a state tax in Texas actually made that fairly comparable to the eight years and $210MM the Yankees were offering, forcing them to go higher and symbolically top the $217MM that David Price got from the Red Sox back in 2015.

It’s perhaps not surprising that the Sox fell short given how high the number ended up going, but it does highlight the fact that they haven’t been able to achieve their main offseason goal of upgrading the rotation. They also had interest in pitchers like Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi, who have gone elsewhere. Trade talks with the White Sox about Garrett Crochet have apparently stalled. Righty Corbin Burnes is still out there but it’s been reported that they are less likely to win that bidding than the Blue Jays or Giants.

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Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Texas Rangers Max Fried

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White Sox Sign Mike Tauchman

By Anthony Franco | December 11, 2024 at 1:22pm CDT

December 11: The White Sox officially announced the deal today.

December 10: Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (X link) provided some financial details today. Tauchman will make a salary of $1.95MM and can earn an extra $1MM via incentives. There’s also a $250K relocation bonus if he’s traded.

December 9: The White Sox are in agreement with free agent outfielder Mike Tauchman, reports Scott Merkin of MLB.com (X link). It’s a major league contract for the Meister Sports Management client, tweets James Fegan of Sox Machine. Terms have not been reported. The Sox have two openings on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is necessary.

Tauchman, a Chicago-area native, heads to the other side of the city after spending two seasons with the Cubs. The lefty-swinging outfielder was a nice role player for the North Siders. He has hit .250/.360/.372 across 751 plate appearances since returning from a 2022 stint in Korea. That includes a solid .248/.357/.366 showing over 350 trips to the dish this year.

That made it somewhat surprising that the Cubs opted not to tender Tauchman a contract for his second trip through the arbitration process. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him at a relatively modest $2.9MM. That was evidently too pricey for a Cubs team that felt it’d have a tough time getting him the same amount of playing time. Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki are lined up for outfield and designated hitter work. Alexander Canario and Kevin Alcantara made their MLB debuts late in the year, while prospect Owen Caissie isn’t far off himself.

Tauchman has a much clearer path to playing time at Guaranteed Rate Field. He’s the second outfield acquisition of the winter for Sox GM Chris Getz. Chicago brought in righty-swinging Austin Slater on a $1.75MM deal last month. Tauchman probably isn’t much more costly. He could pair with Slater in a right field platoon. The Sox non-tendered Gavin Sheets a few weeks ago, while presumptive starter Dominic Fletcher hit just .206/.252/.256 across 241 plate appearances this past season.

While this isn’t a move that’ll meaningfully change the outfield’s ceiling, Tauchman’s plate discipline gives him a higher floor than Fletcher. He could hit towards the top of the lineup. The Sox would surely be happy to cash him in at the deadline if he’s performing well. As a 34-year-old journeyman outfielder, Tauchman wouldn’t net a big return even if he has a strong first half. Still, the White Sox could theoretically flip him for a mid-tier prospect next July.

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Chicago White Sox Transactions Mike Tauchman

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Conflicting Reports On Angels Outfield Situation

By Darragh McDonald | December 11, 2024 at 12:43pm CDT

12:43pm: On the Baseball Insiders podcast, Robert Murray of FanSided says the Angels are not in fact close to trading an outfielder (hat tip to Sam Blum of The Athletic and Beyond the Halo on X)

9:28am: Yesterday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link) reported that the Angels seemed to be close to trading an outfielder. Nothing has come together yet but it’s possible that talks are still ongoing. It wasn’t specified which outfielder they were about to trade but Feinsand suggested that Taylor Ward would make sense since there have been rumors of other clubs being interested in him. However, Ward’s agent Joel Wolfe told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (X link) that he hadn’t heard anything about trade talks involving his client. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there aren’t discussions happening but members of the Atlanta beat like David O’Brien of The Athletic (X link) and Mark Bowman of MLB.com (X link) both report that, if there is an imminent Ward trade, it won’t be to Atlanta.

Ward has seemed like a logical trade candidate for a while now. As the Angels have struggled to compete in recent years, there has been natural speculation about the veteran players on the roster with shrinking windows of club control. Ward will be celebrating his 31st birthday this Saturday and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

If the Angels were pivoting towards a sort of reset, it would make sense to trade Ward for younger and more controllable players. However, despite just losing 99 games in the most recent season, the Halos are clearly trying to contend in 2025. Both owner Arte Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian made it clear that was the plan for this winter and they have backed that up, acquiring Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and others already.

In that context, trading Ward becomes a bit more difficult to see. The outfield is already a fairly thin part of the roster, consisting of Ward, Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak and perhaps Soler. Trout has become increasingly injury prone in recent years, having not played 120 games in a season since 2019. Soler is a poor defender and best suited to be the designated hitter more often than not. Adell and Moniak still have poor offensive track records overall.

Subtracting Ward from that group would make it even flimsier but clubs would certainly be interested if he were available. He has hit .259/.338/.440 over the past four years for a wRC+ of 118, indicating he’s been 18% better than the league average hitter in that time. His defense has also been graded around league average or above, allowing him to play at a pace of about two to four wins above replacement per year, according to FanGraphs.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Ward for a $9.2MM salary in 2025, a notable sum but still a bargain for a player like Ward. Free agent corner outfielders like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are likely to command multi-year contracts with average annual values double that. Ward would be in line for a raise in 2026, his final season before free agency, but that figure would still be a good deal if he continues to produce at his usual rates.

A trade coming together would naturally depend on what other clubs are willing to offer. Perhaps the Angels get offered some big league pitching or infield help that they feel is worth taking, but they would then have to pivot to replacing Ward in the outfield mix. The Pirates and Royals were both connected to Ward at the trade deadline with Kansas City reportedly still interested in him as of last month, though the Angels haven’t let go of him yet.

Some fans might hear about the Angels potentially trading an outfielder and jump to Trout but it’s hard to imagine a trade like that coming out of the blue. He has a full no-trade clause and has repeatedly said that he wants to stay and win with the Angels. It’s possible that he changes his mind at some point but there’s hasn’t been any public suggestion that has happened.

His contract is also hard to move from a financial perspective. Trout is paid at superstar rates but hasn’t been able to provide that production in a while. He’s always good when he’s on the field but hasn’t been out there enough to accrue counting stats at his previous levels. He’s set to make $35.45MM annually for another six seasons. Even for a marquee name like Trout, that’s a lot of money for a guy who’s now 33 years old with mounting injury concerns.

Even if Trout wanted to be traded, it would be a tricky spot for the Halos since they would likely have to settle for a middling return on a franchise player or eat money just to get a notable package, which isn’t a great P.R. position either way.

It’s also possible Moniak or Adell are the ones being discussed, though neither would have huge value right now. Moniak has stepped to the plate 908 times in the majors thus far with a .230/.272/.402 batting line and 32.3% strikeout rate. Adell has hit .211/.268/.381 in his career with a 32.2% strikeout rate.

It’s possible to see some improvement from Adell in 2024, as he popped 24 home runs while lowering his strikeout rate to 27.9%. His overall production was still subpar but his .244 batting average on balls in play was well below league average. It’s possible he took a meaningful step forward this past year and will break out with better luck in 2025 but he’s floundered so many times that teams might be reluctant to bet on that.

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Angels Jo Adell Mickey Moniak Mike Trout Taylor Ward

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Latest On Corbin Burnes

By Nick Deeds | December 11, 2024 at 11:52am CDT

Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.

Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.

The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.

As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.

Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Corbin Burnes Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta

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Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

By Nick Deeds | December 11, 2024 at 11:15am CDT

11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

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Chicago Cubs Houston Astros New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Francisco Giants Cam Smith Isaac Paredes Kyle Tucker Luis Gil Matt Shaw Seiya Suzuki

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Rangers Acquire Jake Burger

By Anthony Franco | December 11, 2024 at 10:15am CDT

10:15am: Both clubs announced the deal today.

12:21am: The Rangers and Marlins have reportedly agreed to a deal that’ll send corner infielder Jake Burger to Texas for a trio of prospects. Miami receives infielders Max Acosta and Echedry Vargas as well as pitching prospect Brayan Mendoza.

Burger adds an affordable bat to deepen the Texas lineup. The Rangers surprisingly struggled to produce offense this year. Texas had a .238/.305/.380 team batting line that slotted in the bottom third of the league. They finished 18th in scoring. It was a far cry from the 2023 lineup that mashed its way to a championship.

The 28-year-old Burger can step into the middle of the order. He popped 29 home runs with a .250/.306/.460 slash line over 579 plate appearances. The former first-round pick combined for 34 longballs between the White Sox and Marlins in 2023. His 63 homers over the past two seasons ties him with José Ramírez and Corey Seager for 15th in MLB.

Burger, a righty hitter, is more of a one-dimensional slugger than many of his peers at the top of the home run leaderboard. He’s a .250/.305/.488 hitter over the last two years. Burger strikes out a higher than average rate and doesn’t draw many walks, but he has gotten to his huge power against pitchers of either handedness. He’s a career .244/.298/.496 hitter against lefty pitching and carries a .253/.308/.478 slash versus right-handers.

A third baseman for most of his career, Burger divided his time fairly evenly between the infield corners in 2024. He’s a poor defender at the hot corner, where his 6’2″, 230-pound frame limits his mobility. Burger posted roughly average defensive marks at first base in nearly 500 innings. While he doesn’t project as the starter at either position in Arlington, he’s insurance at both spots. Third baseman Josh Jung has battled a litany of injuries. Nathaniel Lowe has a strong durability track record, but he’s not guaranteed to stick on the roster all year. The Rangers could think about trading Lowe, who is projected for a hefty $10.7MM arbitration salary, if they’re working with a tight budget after committing to a $25MM annual salary to retain Nathan Eovaldi.

If they hold Lowe, Burger would project as the top option at designated hitter. That’d allow the Rangers to keep Wyatt Langford in left field, while Evan Carter could slide to center field and push Leody Taveras to the bench. That’s seemingly a goal for GM Chris Young and his staff. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote on Tuesday evening that Texas had been in contact with free agent DH Joc Pederson. That’s a far less likely fit now that Burger is in the fold.

Burger is under team control for four seasons. He finished five days shy of the cutoff to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player. He’ll be paid close to the league minimum for one more season before getting his first salary of significance next offseason. That’s of clear appeal to a Texas team that has a projected luxury tax number around $219MM (courtesy of RosterResource), a little more than $20MM shy of the base threshold. With a reported desire to avoid the tax and multiple holes in the bullpen they still need to address, Burger’s affordability is a big plus.

From Miami’s perspective, it’s another move to shape the roster more to the liking of second-year baseball operations leader Peter Bendix. Former general manager Kim Ng made the move to acquire Burger at the ’23 deadline. It’s possible Bendix was never enamored with the profile, as he comes from a Rays front office that placed a lot of emphasis on infield defense and versatility.

Acosta, 22, steps onto Miami’s 40-man roster. Texas selected his contract last month to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. The Venezuelan-born infielder hit .288/.353/.425 with eight homers over 434 plate appearances at Double-A Frisco. He’s an advanced contact hitter with minimal power. Acosta has experience at both middle infield positions and could be a utility option in the near future.

Vargas, who turns 20 in February, spent the entire season at Low-A Down East. He popped 14 homers and stole 29 bases in 97 games with a .276/.321/.454 slash line. Vargas has a very aggressive plate approach but there’s a fair amount of upside in the power-speed combination for a player who has played shortstop thus far in his career.

Mendoza, a 6’0″ lefty from Venezuela, had a nice year in the low minors. The 20-year-old combined for a 2.32 earned run average through 101 innings. He struck out 26.3% of batters faced while limiting his walks to a 6.4% clip. While Mendoza hasn’t gotten much public prospect fanfare, he has the look of a potential pichability lefty.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Rangers were acquiring Burger for three prospects. Robert Murray of FanSided was first with Acsota’s inclusion. Christina De Nicola of MLB.com had the Vargas element, while Alden González of ESPN was first on Mendoza. Image courtesy of Imagn.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Texas Rangers Transactions Jake Burger Max Acosta

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The Opener: Rule 5 Draft, Yankees, Rangers

By Nick Deeds | December 11, 2024 at 8:57am CDT

As the Winter Meetings enters its final stretch today, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2024 Rule 5 Draft:

Baseball’s annual Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place at 1pm CT this afternoon. International players and high school draft picks who signed in 2019 and college draft picks signed in 2020 who have not yet been added to their club’s 40-man roster are vulnerable in today’s draft, where any club can select them for a $100K fee. If the player does not stick on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K. Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to select a player in the draft, meaning the Tigers and Red Sox would each need to clear space on their 40-man roster before the draft begins in order to participate.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft occasionally go on to impact their team in the future, as free agent outfielder Anthony Santander famously did following his selection in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. Red Sox right-hander Justin Slaten, A’s right-hander Mitch Spence, and Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek are among last year’s picks who remained with their new organization through the entire 2024 season, with Slaten in particular featuring prominently in Boston’s late-inning mix. Will a similarly valuable diamond in the rough be unearthed today?

2. Yankees pivot away from Soto:

The Yankees started their pivot away from Juan Soto yesterday in a big way when they agreed to an eight-year deal with left-hander Max Fried. The deal is the largest in MLB history for a left-handed starting pitcher, and every indication is that the hot stove will stay active in the Bronx going forward. The club has been connected to first baseman Christian Walker, third baseman Alex Bregman, and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez among others in free agency, while potential trade candidates include White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet, Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker, and Cubs first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. The club’s reported interest in Crochet came before they landed Fried, but each of those hitters still seems to be a reasonably possible target for the Yankees as they look to rebuild their lineup without Soto.

3. What’s next for the Rangers?

The Rangers checked the biggest box of their offseason yesterday by agreeing to a deal that would bring right-hander Nathan Eovaldi back into the fold. That wasn’t the club’s only move last night, either, as they followed it up by acquiring infielder Jake Burger from the Marlins for a package of three prospects. With limited payroll space available as the club seeks to duck under the luxury tax this winter, could the acquisition of Burger prompt Texas to deal a hitter such as first baseman Nathaniel Lowe in order to free up additional dollars for pitching help? Barring to clear payroll, Chris Young’s front office will need to get creative in order to rebuild a bullpen that’s lost Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency while also adding additional starting depth.

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The Opener

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Royals Receiving Trade Interest In Angel Zerpa

By Mark Polishuk | December 11, 2024 at 7:26am CDT

After a solid season in the Royals’ bullpen, left-hander Angel Zerpa is drawing trade attention from rival teams, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes.  There is no sense a deal is close or even if Kansas City is open to moving Zerpa, but Rogers notes that the Royals could deal from what seems to be a surplus of left-handed pitching.

Cole Ragans sits atop the K.C. rotation and obviously isn’t going anywhere, and Kris Bubic probably won’t be dealt since the Royals want to see how he fares in a return to starting pitching.  Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, Sam Long, and prospects Noah Cameron and Evan Sisk are the other left-handers on the Royals’ 40-man roster, with Rogers noting that Lynch and Cameron will also be competing for a rotation job in Spring Training.

Kansas City might wish to see how the rotation competition plays out before making any decisions on trades, in order to gauge Bubic’s health now that he is a bit further removed from an April 2023 Tommy John surgery, and to monitor Kyle Wright’s return after he missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery.  There’s also the fact that Zerpa is not just one of several lefties, but he is currently the top left-handed option in the Royals bullpen.  Given how the relief corps was middling on the whole in 2024, the Royals might prefer to add to the pen rather than subtract, especially since the team’s pitching depth already took a hit when Brady Singer was dealt to the Reds.

Still, there’s no harm in hearing what teams might have to offer for the 25-year-old Zerpa, who is team-controlled through the 2028 season.  An amateur signing out of Venezuela in 2016, Zerpa has spent his whole career in the K.C. organization, and made it to the majors for a single appearance during the 2021 season.  The Royals shuttled him back and forth from Triple-A several times in 2022-23, but Zerpa also dealt with two notable injuries — a patellar tendon tear in his right knee cut short Zerpa’s 2022 season, and a shoulder problem kept him from making his 2023 debut until August.

With a 3.84 ERA in his first 58 2/3 innings (starting six of 19 games), Zerpa broke camp in 2024 in a full-fledged relief role.  He just about matched his previous career ERA with a 3.86 ERA in 53 2/3 relief frames last year, along with an outstanding 58.2% grounder rate.  Zerpa’s ability to keep the ball on the ground helped him paper over below-average strikeout (20.4) and walk (8.3) rates, and notwithstanding his .325 BABIP, a lot of the hard contact he allowed ended up staying on the ground.

It isn’t your standard recipe for bullpen success, and so it seems plausible the Royals might consider selling high on Zerpa if another club has enough interest.  Rogers suggests that rival teams might even be looking at returning Zerpa to a starting role, which might also bump up his value in trade talks to some extent.

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Kansas City Royals Angel Zerpa

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Latest On Yankees, Christian Walker

By Mark Polishuk | December 11, 2024 at 6:13am CDT

The Yankees’ interest in Christian Walker was initially reported on last month, but it wasn’t until Juan Soto signed with the Mets that the Yankees were seemingly able to devote more attention to other position-player targets.  The change of focus apparently happened pretty quickly, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Yankees “renewed contract discussions” with Walker’s camp on Sunday evening, which was the same time that news broke of Soto’s record $765MM contract.

While the pitching and hitting markets aren’t exactly the same, the Bombers’ eight-year, $218MM megadeal with Max Fried is easy evidence that New York has been able to quickly pivot into the rest of its target list with Soto off the board.  First base help and lineup help in general are both needs, and signing Walker would address both issues in one fell swoop.

Fried’s deal adds another wrinkle to the Yankees’ pursuit of Walker, or any other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024 and because Fried turned down the Braves’ QO, the Yankees had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money as well as their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in order to complete the signing.  Inking Walker to a deal would cost the Yankees another $1MM in int’l pool funds, as well as two more draft picks — their third- and sixth-highest selections.

As much of a hit this could be to New York’s 2025 draft plans, Brian Cashman’s front office might view it as a necessary cost in order to capitalize on the team’s contention window.  Fried adds another top-flight arm to pair with Gerrit Cole atop a deep Yankee rotation, Aaron Judge is still arguably the best hitter in the sport, Giancarlo Stanton has a bounce-back 2024 season, and a younger core of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and (New York hopes) Jasson Dominguez can all contribute both now and in the future.

Walker would represent another big piece to this puzzle, bringing both elite first-base defense and a strong bat.  Walker is turning 34 in March but hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, plus his age might be a feature and not a bug in terms of the Yankees’ needs.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi said that a shorter-term contract might be more preferable for the Yankees than a longer deal for a younger first base option, which is why Morosi notes that Walker “is more of a priority for the Yankees than Pete Alonso would be.”

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Reds Among Teams Interested In Luis Robert Jr.

By Mark Polishuk | December 11, 2024 at 5:02am CDT

Apart from Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr. is the biggest trade chip the White Sox have on offer as the club looks to continue its rebuilding process.  Though 2024 was another injury-marred season for Robert, Sox GM Chris Getz told the Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen (multiple links) and other reporters that his team has “gotten a lot of interest” in Robert’s services during the Winter Meetings.  The Reds appear to be one of those interested parties, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Ohio team has “at least checked in on Robert.”

It’s no secret that Getz is asking for a lot in return for Robert, and the general manager defended his stance by saying that the White Sox are looking for a trade package commensurate to “the talent that he brings to the table” since Robert’s “tools haven’t changed.”

“Obviously, the injury last year was disruptive to [Robert’s] production, but the reason there’s so much interest is because maybe a team feels like they can capture something that perhaps didn’t show up last year,” Getz said.

Cincinnati is an interesting potential trade partner because the Reds also have a lot of high-ceiling younger players coming off disappointing 2024 seasons.  The Reds went 82-80 in 2023 and went into last season looking to make a step forward into contention, but instead fell back to 77 wins because Elly De La Cruz and Tyler Stephenson were basically the only members of the team’s younger core that met expectations.  Whether due to injuries or just plain under-performance, players like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand now head into the coming season with plenty left to prove about their building-block status.

Speculatively, working out a trade package involving Robert and at least one of these players could help offset some of the concerns the Reds might have about Robert’s long-term health.  Granted, Getz isn’t likely to sell low on Robert unless he absolutely has to, but taking on a player in a trade package that is also a bit of a question mark doesn’t seem like an unreasonable approach on the Reds’ part.  Just as Getz can argue that Robert’s underlying talent is the key factor in trade talks, Cincinnati might take that same argument in regards to any of its potential trade chips.

The outfield is known to be a target area for the Reds, and Robert would address that need in a big way.  With Robert stepping in as new regular center fielder, TJ Friedl could be shifted to left field, if Steer is subsequently moved back to the infield.  There are plenty of ways manager Terry Francona could juggle his lineup around Robert as one of the everyday cornerstones, and if another injury did arise, Friedl, Will Benson, or Stuart Fairchild would presumably still be on hand to step back into center field.

Part of Robert’s trade value is tied to his contract, which is a bargain if the outfielder is as healthy and productive as he was in his All-Star 2023 season.  Robert is set to earn $15MM in 2025, and the White Sox have a pair of $20MM club options (with $2MM buyouts) for both the 2026 and 2027 seasons.  While not huge money by superstar standards, the Reds’ trade efforts could be complicated if the team is indeed operating within very limited payroll parameters.

Ownership might be willing to allot more money to the Reds’ payroll in the special circumstance of a Robert trade coming to fruition, or another creative answer could be explored.  From Chicago’s perspective, Getz is open to ideas, noting that the White Sox have had some talks about three-team trades (presumably involving Robert or Crochet).  “If that’s the best way to acquire the talent for your organization, you do it,” Getz said.

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