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Archives for 2024

Athletics Sign Luis Severino

By Steve Adams | December 11, 2024 at 1:00am CDT

TODAY: Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via Bluesky) has the breakdown of Severino’s contract.  The $10MM signing bonus is broken up at $5MM next month and $5MM in January 2026.  The righty will earn $15MM this season and $20MM in 2026, so his player option for the 2027 season is worth $22MM.  Severino will also get a $500K assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

DECEMBER 6: The A’s are ready to spend some cash, announcing Friday that they’ve signed free agent righty Luis Severino to a three-year deal — the third year of which is a player option. Severino, a client of Klutch Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $67MM, to be paid out in the form of a $10MM signing bonus and $57MM in salary over the three seasons. He can opt out of the contract after year two and become a free agent once again in the 2026-27 offseason.

It’ll register as a shock for many to see the nomadic A’s, who will play next year in West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park (home to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate), land a notable free agent with a hefty multi-year deal. They’re in the process of relocating to Las Vegas and have been aggressively pursuing free agents in an effort to boost a payroll that entered the offseason without a single contract on the books in 2025. Some free agents — Walker Buehler among them — have entirely dismissed the notion of playing in a minor league facility. Still, with a reported target payroll in the $100MM range, there’s long been a possibility for the A’s to be a surprise player in free agency. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored just such a possibility at length last month.

The general thinking has been that the A’s will need to overpay in order to pursue top-end free agents this winter. The terms of Severino’s contract indeed suggest a clear willingness to spend well beyond market expectations in order to lure free agents to their new home. Severino’s deal includes both a larger guarantee than most anticipated and an opt-out opportunity. Because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, Severino will cost the A’s their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. He’ll also net the Mets a compensatory pick, albeit only between the fourth and fifth rounds because of their status as a luxury tax payor.

The $100MM target payroll likely stems from the Athletics’ status as a revenue-sharing recipient. The franchise was stripped of its revenue-sharing benefits last decade after failing to sufficiently utilize those funds to improve the on-field product, as is a stipulated requirement. The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement restored the A’s as a revenue-sharing recipient, and they’ve since spent modestly in free agency to keep payroll at least in step with the other lowest-spending clubs in the league. The deal with Severino signals a willingness to spend a bit beyond that point. It is, incredibly, the largest contract in franchise history, nominally surpassing the six-year, $66MM contract extension signed by third baseman Eric Chavez more than two decades ago.

[Related: The Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team]

Severino, 31, will immediately jump to the top of the A’s rotation. He’s likely ticketed for their Opening Day start, barring another notable acquisition via free agency or trade. He’ll lead a staff that currently projects to also include JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes. The A’s have a variety of in-house candidates for the fifth spot, though the Severino deal rather obviously opens the door for GM David Forst to sign/trade for another starter of note to further solidify the bunch.

Severino, of course, looked the part of a budding ace for the Yankees in 2017-18 when he posted 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 45.8% grounder rate in his age-23 and age-24 seasons. The flamethrowing righty averaged better than 97 mph on his heater, recorded a hefty 12.7% swinging-strike rate and generally had the makings of a star. The Yankees agreed, signing him to a four-year, $40MM extension with an option for a fifth season.

That deal bought out all of Severino’s arbitration years and his first free-agent season. At the time, some thought a pitcher with his upside and demonstrated excellence to date was perhaps selling himself short. In the long run, it worked out wonderfully, as injuries frequently kept Severino off the field and rendered him a shell of his former self when healthy enough to take the mound. From 2019-23, Severino managed only 209 1/3 innings in the majors, dealing with multiple lat strains and requiring Tommy John surgery along the way. His 2023 campaign included 89 1/3 frames with a 6.65 ERA.

The 2024 season marked a resurgence for Severino, who inked a one-year, $13MM deal with the Mets on the heels of that injury-plagued finish to his Yankees tenure. The right-hander’s 182 innings nearly matched his total over the five prior calendar years. He logged a 3.91 ERA with a below-average but passable 21.2% strikeout rate and a strong 7.6% walk rate. His 46% ground-ball rate, while not elite, was comfortably north of league average.

At the same time, Severino simply wasn’t the dominant force he was earlier in his career. His average fastball with the Mets was about 1.5 mph off from its peak levels. His 9.4% swinging-strike rate was decidedly below-average — a near mirror-image of his 9.1% mark in that disastrous 2023 season and nowhere close to his career-best 13.3% rate. Opponents made contact on just 81.9% of Severino’s pitches within the strike zone in 2017-18 — league-average was 84.7% — but did so at a whopping 88.2% clip in 2024 (when the league average was 85.2%).

When the Mets signed Severino to his one-year deal, it had the makings of an upside play on a former front-of-the-rotation arm. Last year’s rebound showed that he was healthy but also seemed to further support the notion that his prior ace-caliber form is in the rearview mirror. Severino now has the feel of a third or fourth starter, making his $22.333MM annual salary and an opt-out rather jarring.

Many pundits thought Severino could have — and should have — accepted the Mets’ $21.05MM qualifying offer; he and his agents deserve credit for not simply eclipsing that guarantee in notable fashion but surpassing that number on an annual basis over a lengthy deal that affords him another bite at free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. The contract tops recent guarantees for Chris Bassitt, who was seen as a steady and dependable No. 2-3 arm, and Yusei Kikuchi, whose torrid finish with the Astros made him one of the most sought-after pitchers on this offseason’s market. Both pitchers signed for $63MM over the same three-year term.

For the A’s, a commitment this weighty was likely deemed a necessity to land a mid-rotation arm whose velocity and ground-ball tendencies perhaps create some hope that he can still eke out some incremental improvements over his 2024 form. That said, there’s quite a bit of injury risk still associated with Severino, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.21) and SIERA (4.22) were actually more bearish on his 2024 performance than his already solid-but-unspectacular earned run average. There’s little doubt he improves the club and shows that the A’s are serious about spending this winter, but it’s a steep price to pay when taken in totality.

Severino will nevertheless add some credibility to a rotation that was largely lacking it. And the A’s, with a burgeoning core of quality players — Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers — could hope that a few subsequent additions and strides from young talents like Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof might help them exceed expectations sooner than most thought possible.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides agreed to a three-year, $67MM deal. Yahoo’s Russell Dorsey reported the signing bonus. Passan added details on the opt-out.

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Athletics Newsstand Transactions Luis Severino

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Padres “Exploring” Dylan Cease’s Trade Market

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 11:37pm CDT

As the Padres face payroll constraints amid an offseason where starting pitching has been at a premium, the possibility of San Diego fielding interest on right-hander Dylan Cease emerged earlier today with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggesting that the club is anywhere from actively “trying to unload” the right-hander to merely “open to offers” on him. This evening, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin characterized the situation slightly differently, reporting that the club is “at least exploring” Cease’s trade value but also cautioning that San Diego “prefers” to keep Cease in the fold and a trade is not considered likely at this time.

The Padres have plenty of needs this winter, including help in the outfield, starting rotation, and behind the plate. Dealing Cease from a 2025 rotation where he projects to feature prominently alongside Yu Darvish and Michael King would be a substantial hit to an already thin rotation mix, of course, even with with Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Adrian Morejon, Bryan Hoeing, and Stephen Kolek as potential back-end options available internally. It’s for that reason Lin reports the club would seek “multiple controllable players,” including “one or more” starting pitchers. If San Diego were unable to secure enough rotation help from a Cease trade, Lin adds, then they would likely look to flip those players to land other rotation pieces.

Given the club’s rotation needs, it may raise some eyebrows that the club could consider trading Cease even if they don’t receive controllable pitching in return. The logic behind that possibility, per Lin, stems in part from the club’s pessimism regarding their ability to keep Cease in San Diego long-term. While Lin notes the club still “harbors some hope” that they may be able to extend King before he reaches free agency next winter, they believe they have no such chance of being able to afford Cease following the 2025 campaign, when MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to make $13.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.

If Cease were to be traded for young talent, that $13.7MM could be re-invested into the roster and potentially used to a player in free agency, whether that be a mid-level starter like Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson or help in the outfield, perhaps even in the form of a reunion with Jurickson Profar. Much as that salary relief could be a huge boon to the Padres, it’s not an especially cumbersome figure overall. For that reason, Lin suggests that Cease could find a much wider range of suitors on the trade market this winter than Juan Soto did when San Diego shopped him last year, even as Cease isn’t nearly as impactful as the league’s newly-minted $765MM man.

At least one suitor for Cease’s services has already been named, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported earlier today that the Red Sox are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease. Boston has long been known to be targeting help at the top of their rotation, and after the club fell short in the pursuit of southpaw Max Fried today their interest in working out a deal to acquire Cease has surely only grown. The Red Sox currently seem focused on courting right-hander Corbin Burnes as they search for top-of-the-rotation help, but the possibility of the club looking to add two front-end starters this winter has been bandied about at times throughout the offseason so even landing a player of that caliber wouldn’t necessarily preclude a deal from taking place.

The Red Sox have a tantalizing cachet of top prospects in their system, though the likes of Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are generally considered to be untouchable in trade discussions. Catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Wilyer Abreu, or perhaps even right-hander Garrett Whitlock would be perfect fits San Diego’s needs, though it’s unclear if the Red Sox would be willing to part ways with any of those players in a deal for a rental piece like Cease. While Abreu in particular has been floated frequently as a potential trade candidate this winter, those rumors have typically tended to frame Abreu as the headliner for a package that would land a controllable piece like White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet rather than for a rental arm like Cease.

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Pirates Acquire Spencer Horwitz From Guardians

By Anthony Franco | December 10, 2024 at 10:46pm CDT

The Pirates announced the acquisition of first baseman/second baseman Spencer Horwitz from the Guardians for a three-player package: righty Luis Ortiz and left-handed pitching prospects Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy. Cleveland dealt Horwitz within hours of acquiring him from the Blue Jays in this afternoon’s Andrés Giménez deal.

Horwitz, 27, looks as if he’ll get a crack at Pittsburgh’s starting first base job. He would’ve been an imperfect fit on a Cleveland team that already has Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo. There’s a much clearer path to playing time in Pittsburgh. The Bucs used Rowdy Tellez as their primary first baseman for most of the ’24 season. He didn’t perform well and was cut loose at the end of the year.

The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.

Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. Toronto used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.

The Bucs don’t have a great option at second base either. Nick Gonzales is the in-house favorite on the heels of a pedestrian .270/.311/.398 showing. The Pirates will probably stick with Gonzales at the keystone and use Horwitz at first, but the latter is at least capable of kicking over to second base as a fill-in option.

Horwitz has yet to reach a full year of MLB service. He’s under club control for six years. He’ll very likely be eligible for arbitration after two seasons as a Super Two qualifier, but the Bucs will get a couple years of what they hope is a plug-and-play first baseman on roughly league minimum salaries. It’s questionable whether Horwitz has sufficient power to profile as an everyday option. If he hits his ceiling, he’d probably project as a LaMonte Wade Jr. type who gets on base enough to be a solid regular. Pittsburgh’s first-year hitting coach Matt Hague worked for Toronto in recent years and is surely bullish on Horwitz’s offensive acumen.

Ortiz is the only member of the trio heading to Cleveland who has MLB experience. The 25-year-old righty has pitched in a swing role over the past couple years. Ortiz struggled over his first two seasons but turned in a quietly strong ’24 campaign. He started 15 of 37 appearances and logged 135 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Ortiz managed solid results no matter what role he was asked to play. He turned in a 3.22 mark out of the rotation while allowing 3.49 earned runs per nine in relief.

The underlying profile didn’t match the strong ERA. Ortiz neither gets ground-balls nor strikeouts at high rates. His 8.8% swinging strike percentage was well below average. To his credit, Ortiz did take a major step forward with his control this year. After walking at least 12% of opponents in his first two seasons, he limited the free passes to a 7.6% clip.

Ortiz will have a tough time repeating this year’s success unless he finds a way to miss more bats. That’s not out of the question, as he has intriguing raw stuff. Ortiz sits in the 95-96 MPH range with both his four-seam and sinking fastball. He found a lot of success with a mid-80s slider that served as his top secondary offering. If he can sustain this year’s command while finding a better swing-and-miss pitch, he’d have a shot to be a mid-rotation arm. If not, he could find himself back in the bullpen as a long reliever.

The Guardians have a solid track record of pitching development, but they’re thin in the rotation for the second straight season. Tanner Bibee is the only lock for their season-opening rotation. Gavin Williams and Ben Lively will probably occupy back-end roles. Ortiz has a decent shot of cracking the front five, which would also include one of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen or Joey Cantillo if they don’t make any further additions. Shane Bieber re-signed and could factor in by May or June as he works back from Tommy John surgery.

It’s still a relatively weak group, but the Guardians papered over a poor rotation by relying on a dominant bullpen this past season. While they’ll likely need to do so again, Cleveland could add at least one more starter via free agency or trade. Pittsburgh has a lot of upper level pitching talent, so Ortiz would’ve had an uphill battle to hold off arms like Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler for a rotation spot.

Ortiz lands between one and two service years. He’s at least one season from arbitration and could find himself on the border of Super Two eligibility next winter. Regardless of whether he gets to arbitration early, he won’t become a free agent for five seasons.

The Bucs also pay a bit of a prospect price to even the deal. Hartle was Pittsburgh’s third-round pick this summer. The Wake Forest product entered the spring as a potential first-round talent before struggling to a 5.97 ERA in his junior season.

Baseball America wrote in their draft report that Hartle has good command with fringy stuff. He sits in the low 90s with roughly average secondary pitches. It’s not the highest-upside profile on paper, but this is the type of arm with whom the Guardians’ player development department has thrived. Bibee and Bieber were also command-oriented college draftees whose stuff didn’t take off until they got into pro ball. While that’s certainly not a guarantee that Hartle will progress the same way, it’s not a surprise that he’s of interest to Cleveland.

Kennedy, 20, was a fourth-round pick out of a New York high school in 2023. He made 18 appearances in the low minors this year, working to a 3.66 ERA with a near-28% strikeout rate over 83 2/3 frames. As with Hartle, he draws praise for his athleticism and control but has subpar velocity. They’re each developmental fliers who have a shot to stick as starters if their stuff comes along.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Pirates were acquiring Horwitz. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the return going to Cleveland. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet suggested earlier this evening that Horwitz might end up being flipped to Pittsburgh. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Luis ortiz (b. 1999) Spencer Horwitz

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Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Trade Candidacy

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 10:12pm CDT

While the overwhelming majority of the focus on the Cubs’ outfield mix this winter has been on the trade candidacy of Cody Bellinger, teammate Seiya Suzuki has emerged as an intriguing trade candidate in his own right in recent weeks. Previous reporting has described the club as “determined” to move one of the two outfielders, and today Suzuki’s agent Joel Wolfe offered notable insight on the possibility of his client getting dealt, as relayed by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

Wolfe told reporters (including Rogers) this afternoon that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer approached him last night about which teams are interested in Suzuki’s services. Notably, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause, meaning that he and Wolfe are free to reject any trade proposal involving the outfielder. Wolfe suggested that while Suzuki is theoretically open to a trade, he added that “it’s a pretty small universe” in terms of teams he would be willing to entertain being moved to.

In addition to confirming that there are teams at least inquiring on Suzuki’s availability, Wolfe’s comments also revealed one potential motivation for Suzuki to entertain trade offers: his desire to play the outfield on a regular basis. Following the emergence of top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as the club’s everyday center fielder last summer, Suzuki found himself parked at DH on a regular basis once the club’s outfield mix was fully health and Bellinger cemented himself as the club’s regular right fielder. That’s a situation he was evidently displeased with, as Wolfe suggested that Suzuki likely “would not have signed with a team” who pitched being their everyday DH to him in free agency.

That potential source of discord between player and team shines a new light on the Cubs’ efforts to trade either Suzuki or Bellinger this winter. With Ian Happ locked in as the club’s left fielder and Crow-Armstrong having cemented himself in center, it’s undeniable that the club’s best defensive alignment with their current group of players involves Bellinger in right field with Suzuki at DH. Suzuki was well-regarded defensively for his work in the outfield during his NPB days but has oscillated between average and below average throughout his three seasons in the big leagues according to defensive metrics. His -3 Outs Above Average last year ranked 33rd among 42 qualified right fielders. While Bellinger did not get enough reps to qualify, he’s earned +2 Outs Above Average for his work across all three outfield spots in two seasons with the Cubs and is generally regarded as a plus defender in an outfield corner.

Of course, that’s not to say the Cubs would necessarily prefer to trade Suzuki. Indeed, the club’s apparent aggressiveness in shopping Bellinger suggests just the opposite, and it’s not hard to see why. For one things, Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary in 2025 eclipses the $19MM Suzuki is owed this year, and Bellinger’s player option for 2026 offers Chicago less certainty moving forward than Suzuki’s guaranteed contract. What’s more, Suzuki is a better hitter and perhaps even the best hitter on the team. The 29-year-old’s .283/.366/.482 (138 wRC+) slash line this year dwarfs Bellinger’s own line of .266/.325/.426 (109 wRC+), and Suzuki has long been a statcast darling who hits the ball hard and takes his walks compared to Bellinger’s low exit velocities and contact-oriented approach.

To that end, Cubs GM Carter Hawkins spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) this afternoon and downplayed the likelihood of a trade.

“We don’t want to trade Seiya,” Hawkins said, as relayed by Montemurro. “but, look, as [Wolfe] talked about there’s people interested in great players and so if teams come asking those are at least conversations that we’re willing to have, but I really don’t think much is going to come of it.“

Hawkins’s comments lend further credence to previous reporting regarding Suzuki’s availability that suggested while the Cubs were willing to entertain offers for the slugger, a deal was only likely to come together if Chicago was unable to trade Bellinger. To this point, Bellinger has received reported interest from the Yankees, Mariners, Astros, and Diamondbacks at the very least, suggesting that a Bellinger trade remains the more likely outcome unless the market for his services falls apart in the coming days and weeks.

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Red Sox Preparing Offer To Corbin Burnes

By Anthony Franco | December 10, 2024 at 9:18pm CDT

The Red Sox are preparing a formal contract offer to Corbin Burnes, write Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive. The former Cy Young winner is the final clear top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency.

Boston came up empty in their pursuit of Max Fried. While the Sox were one of Fried’s top suitors, they balked at the massive $218MM guarantee which the southpaw landed from their rivals. The Red Sox have also seen reported targets Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi head elsewhere. The supply is limiting if the Sox are going to follow through on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s stated goal of “raising the ceiling” in the rotation.

Burnes would obviously accomplish that. While the righty hasn’t missed as many bats over the past couple seasons as he did during his best years in Milwaukee, he’s still an ace. Burnes fired 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the Orioles in his platform year. He added eight innings with one run allowed in his lone postseason start. If the Red Sox were to land Burnes, they’d have one of the stronger rotations in MLB. He’d top a staff also including Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and a hopefully healthy Lucas Giolito.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes would receive a seven-year, $200MM commitment. That’ll almost certainly be light. Burnes was above Fried on virtually every contract prediction (MLBTR’s included). This has been a very strong market for starting pitchers. There’s a chance Burnes could land eight or even nine years on a deal that checks in between $250MM and $300MM at this point.

The Giants and Blue Jays are also known to be involved on Burnes. Baltimore has expressed a desire to keep him around, but that seems to be a longer shot. As a player who rejected a qualifying offer, he’d cost the Sox their second-highest draft pick and $500K of pool space from their 2026 international signing class.

Burnes isn’t the only qualified free agent (nor the lone high-profile Boras Corporation client) whom the Sox are pursuing. Boston is reportedly in the mix for Alex Bregman. In a separate column, McAdam writes that the third baseman is something of a divisive player in the Fenway Park offices. According to McAdam, manager Alex Cora and team president Sam Kennedy are more keen on a Bregman pursuit than Breslow happens to be. Cora is personally familiar with Bregman from his time as bench coach in Houston.

Whether Breslow is lower on Bregman as a player or simply prefers to focus his attention on starting pitching, that’s a potential complicating factor for free agency’s top remaining position player. The Sox presumably aren’t going to come away with both Burnes and Bregman. They could keep Rafael Devers at third base or pursue a Nolan Arenado trade if Bregman heads elsewhere. If they’re looking for a top-of-the-rotation arm and come up empty on Burnes, they’d likely go to the trade market. Reports have cast them more on the periphery of the Garrett Crochet bidding. The Sox floated the possibility of swapping Triston Casas for one of Seattle’s starters, but the Mariners rebuffed that interest while expressing a desire to hold their young pitching.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Alex Bregman Corbin Burnes

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MLB Mailbag: Vlad Jr., Yankees, Seiya Suzuki, Sasaki, Giants

By Tim Dierkes | December 10, 2024 at 8:55pm CDT

We (Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes) are on the scene at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas for Day 2 of the Winter Meetings.  At the time of this writing, Tuesday has been quiet in terms of completed deals, but plenty of action is yet to come.  We carved out some time from meandering the lobby to field subscriber questions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s potential contract, what the Yankees might do after losing out on Juan Soto, the Cubs and the Seiya Suzuki trade situation, the idea of signing Roki Sasaki to an extension, what's next for the Giants, and much more.

Jeff asks: 

Jays fan question - if 26 year old Soto is worth 765M, isn't 26 year old free agent Vlad Jr now worth ~500M? How bad has Ross Atkins bungled his window to sign Vlad at a more reasonable price, over several years of dithering? All the talk had been a Devers comp in the mid-300s, but that ship has surely sailed, right?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s likely rising price tag was a big topic of conversation around the lobby of the MLB Winter Meetings in Dallas Monday night.

It's worth noting that Guerrero will turn 27 shortly in advance of his first free agent season, as opposed to Juan Soto spending the entire first year of his new deal at the age of 26.  We have rarely seen a prominent free agent hit the market at 27, perhaps with the exception of Carlos Correa's weird three-year post-lockout contract.  Otherwise you're looking at international free agents like Jose Abreu or Seiya Suzuki, or Cody Bellinger who took a one-year deal at that point.

Steve and I spoke to our esteemed former colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith last night about a potential Vlad Jr. price tag, and Ben mentioned Rafael Devers as a comp just as Jeff did in his question.  Indeed, Devers' contract only covers free agent years and started with his age-27 season.  That was a ten-year, $313.5MM extension.  Due to deferred money, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that the CBT hit on Devers' deal is "just more than $29 million."  In other words, the present value of Devers' deal was below $300MM.  It was also not signed on the open market.

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Rocky Colavito Passes Away

By Anthony Franco | December 10, 2024 at 8:13pm CDT

Nine-time All-Star Rocky Colavito has passed away, the Guardians announced. The longtime MLB slugger was 91.

A native of the Bronx, Colavito signed with the Indians out of high school. He had consecutive 30-plus home run seasons in Triple-A and played his way to Cleveland by his age-21 season. Colavito carried that over against MLB pitching, hitting 21 homers over 101 games as a rookie in 1956. He finished runner-up to Luis Aparicio in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Colavito hit 25 homers in 1957.  By the ’58 season, he was one of the sport’s most feared power bats. Colavito popped 41 homers while hitting .303 with an MLB-best .620 slugging percentage at age 24. He placed third in that year’s MVP balloting. Colavito drove in 113 runs that season and tallied 111 RBI the next. On June 10, 1959, he became the eighth player in MLB history to hit four homers in a game. He led the American League with 42 longballs en route to his first All-Star nod and a fourth-place MVP finish.

Early in the 1960 season, Cleveland traded Colavito to the Tigers in a one-for-one deal for star shortstop Harvey Kuenn. While Colavito hit 35 homers during his first season in Detroit, his average dropped to .249 in a disappointing overall season. He had a major rebound in ’61, as he set career marks in homers (45) and RBI (140). He hit .290 with a .402 on-base percentage, ranking top 10 among qualified hitters in OBP and OPS. He placed eighth in MVP voting in what was arguably the best year of his career.

Colavito played two more seasons in Detroit. He hit another 37 homers while leading the AL with 309 total bases in ’62. Detroit dealt him to the Athletics over the 1963-64 offseason. Colavito hit .274 with 34 longballs for the then Kansas City-based franchise. Things came full circle the next winter, as the A’s traded him back to Cleveland. Colavito combined for 56 homers over the next two seasons and paced the AL with 108 RBI in 1965. He saw limited playing time with the White Sox, Yankees and Dodgers to close his 14-year playing career.

A career .266/.359/.489 hitter, Colavito was one of the best run producers of his day. He drove in 1159 runs on more than 1700 hits, 379 of which cleared the fences. Colavito had seven 30-homer seasons, including a trio of years with at least 40 longballs. He topped 100 runs batted in on six occasions. Colavito is 81st on the all-time leaderboard in home runs and slots in the top 200 in RBI. While he never got much consideration from voters for Cooperstown, he was inducted into the Cleveland franchise’s Hall of Fame in 2006.

Colavito’s impact on baseball extended well beyond his playing days. He worked in the sport for decades as a coach and radio broadcaster. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and many fans.

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Pirates, Elvis Alvarado Agree To MLB Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 10, 2024 at 7:51pm CDT

The Pirates are in agreement with reliever Elvis Alvarado on a major league split contract, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). The righty gets a 40-man roster spot with the Bucs, a notable development for a minor league free agent.

Alvarado secures a 40-man spot for the first time in his career. The 6’4″ righty has bounced around in minor league free agency. He has appeared in the Nationals, Mariners, Tigers and Marlins systems. Alvarado spent most of the ’24 campaign in Triple-A with Miami. He had a strong season, working to a 2.79 ERA in 48 1/3 innings. He struck out a third of opponents but walked an untenable 18% of batters faced.

The Bucs are clearly intrigued by Alvarado’s swing-and-miss ability. His command remains a serious work in progress. There’s not a ton of downside for Pittsburgh, which has a handful of open 40-man spots. Alvarado has a full slate of minor league options and will probably begin the season at Triple-A Indianapolis. The split deal means he’s paid at differing rates for his MLB and minor league work. He’ll very likely be paid around the MLB minimum for whatever time he spends at PNC Park.

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Blue Jays Acquire Andres Gimenez

By Anthony Franco | December 10, 2024 at 6:23pm CDT

The Blue Jays and Guardians are in agreement on a four-player trade sending second baseman Andrés Giménez to Toronto. The Jays get Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin for infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell. No cash is changing hands, so the Jays are absorbing the final five years of the Giménez contract.

It’s the first out of nowhere trade of the Winter Meetings. While it’s never a complete shock to see Cleveland deal a high-priced player, there hadn’t been much to suggest they were shopping their Gold Glove second baseman. Giménez appeared to be a core piece since he signed one of the biggest contracts in franchise history just two seasons back: a seven-year, $106.5MM extension.

Instead, the defensive stalwart is on the move for the second time in his career. Giménez began his career with the Mets, where his well-rounded profile made him one of the system’s top prospects. Cleveland acquired him alongside Amed Rosario as the key pieces in their return for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco during the 2020-21 offseason.

Giménez struggled during his first year in Cleveland, but he had a breakout showing in 2022. He played plus defense to win his first Gold Glove. Giménez also turned in an impact season at the plate, hitting .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers across 557 plate appearances. He was a deserved All-Star and finished sixth in MVP balloting in the American League.

Following that breakout season, the Guardians signed Giménez to the aforementioned extension. It remains the second-largest investment in the organization’s history, not too far behind the $124MM deal which José Ramírez inked the preceding spring. Cleveland surely envisioned building their long-term infield around that duo.

That’s not quite how things played out, as Giménez’s bat has taken a step backward. The Guardians probably didn’t expect him to repeat the offensive production he managed in 2022. He had a lofty .353 average on balls in play that would be hard to maintain, nor was he likely to be hit by as many pitches (an AL-high 25) as he’d been that year. Giménez’s numbers probably dropped off more sharply than Cleveland anticipated, though, as he has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons.

In 2023, the lefty-swinging Giménez hit .251/.314/.399 with 15 homers across 616 plate appearances. He improved his contact skills but saw his walk rate and power numbers take a step back. Those trends continued this year. Giménez managed just nine homers in 633 trips to the plate. He kept his strikeout rate to a tidy 15.3% clip but drew walks at a career-low 4.1% mark. He wrapped up the year with a middling .252/.298/.340 slash — his weakest offensive output over his three full seasons in Cleveland.

Despite the concerning offensive trends, Giménez remains a valuable all-around player. He has stolen 30 bases in consecutive seasons and is a good overall baserunner. He hasn’t had an injured list stint since 2020 and has topped 140 games in each of the last three seasons. Most significantly, he’s the sport’s best defensive second baseman. Giménez has been named the AL’s Gold Glove winner in three straight years. He has racked up 59 Defensive Runs Saved over that stretch. That’s well above Marcus Semien’s 37 mark that ranks second at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average doesn’t point to quite as big a discrepancy (49 to 40), but both metrics consider Giménez the game’s best keystone defender.

The Jays have poked around the market at second and third base. They have a handful of young players who are capable of manning one or both of those positions — Ernie Clement, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jiménez among them — but it’s a group light on MLB experience. Giménez has a much higher floor in the middle infield. He’ll play second base for at least the upcoming season. That’s probably his long-term home, though he could be an answer at shortstop if Bo Bichette walks next offseason. Giménez came up as a shortstop. He hasn’t played there since 2022, but he’s an athletic enough defender that he could probably handle the position.

The Jays are taking on a decent chunk of money to make that happen. Giménez is under contract for at least the next five seasons. He’ll make $10MM next year, $15MM in ’26, and $23MM annually for the final three guaranteed years. There’s a $23MM club option for the 2030 campaign that comes with a $2.5MM buyout. The deal also calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Including that bonus, Giménez is guaranteed $97.5MM for his age 26-30 campaigns. RosterResource calculates the Jays’ projected luxury tax number around $229MM, putting them roughly $12MM below next year’s base threshold.

Toronto also deepens a subpar middle relief group with the Sandlin acquisition. The low-slot righty has a solid track record over four years in the big leagues. Sandlin, who turns 28 next month, carries a 3.27 earned run average across 195 1/3 career innings. Despite a pedestrian 92-93 MPH fastball, he has shown the ability to miss bats. Sandlin carries a career 27.7% strikeout rate, which he essentially matched over 57 2/3 frames this past season.

The Southern Miss product has middling control. Sandlin walked 11% of batters faced this year, right in line with his 11.4% overall walk percentage. That’ll probably keep him in the middle innings rather than leverage work, but Sandlin’s four-pitch mix has helped him avoid the platoon issues that plague many ’pen arms. The Jays are desperate for any kind of reliability in the bullpen. Only the Rockies had a worse relief group this year. Toronto subsequently moved on from Jordan Romano, Génesis Cabrera and Dillon Tate. They’re in agreement to bring Yimi García back on a two-year free agent deal, but they could use as many as four or five relief acquisitions this winter.

Sandlin has a little less than four years of MLB service. He’s entering his second of four arbitration seasons after qualifying early as a Super Two player. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.6MM salary next year. He should remain affordable over his three years of club control.

The biggest appeal for Cleveland is offloading the expensive portion of Giménez’s contract. Horwitz, 27, provides them with an upper level depth infielder. The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.

Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. The Jays used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.

The lack of defensive flexibility made Horwitz a tough fit on a team with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s similarly squeezed in Cleveland. Josh Naylor would be the first baseman if he’s not traded. Kyle Manzardo could take over even if the Guardians move Naylor. Horwitz still has a minor league option, so he could go back to Triple-A, but he has nothing left to prove there offensively. It’d be a surprise if a Cleveland team that emphasizes infield defense is willing to use him as their regular second baseman. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that Horwitz might end up being flipped to a third team.

In any case, the Guardians will need to find a new second baseman. Juan Brito is on the 40-man roster and hit .256/.365/.443 during his age-22 season in Triple-A. He’s a potential regular, though there’d be risk for Cleveland in relying on a player who has yet to make his MLB debut. The Guards could pursue a stopgap via free agency or trade if they want to add some stability coming off a division title. Over the longer term, the move opens second base for this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. The Oregon State product profiles as a quick-moving second baseman who could get to the majors by the end of next season if all goes well.

Mitchell, a 21-year-old outfielder, rounds out the return. Toronto just drafted the Indiana product in the fourth round. A left-handed batter, Mitchell hit .289/.350/.467 in 22 games as a college draftee in Low-A. Baseball America wrote in its draft report that Mitchell had good contact skills and above-average speed that gave him a shot to stick in center field. He probably projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Jays and Guardians were finalizing a Giménez deal. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN was first with Horwitz’s inclusion. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic had Sandlin going to the Jays, while Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was first to report the full trade and the absence of cash considerations.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Andres Gimenez Nick Sandlin Spencer Horwitz

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Tigers Designate Akil Baddoo For Assignment

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 6:04pm CDT

The Tigers formally announced their previously reported signing of right-hander Alex Cobb this evening. In a corresponding move, outfielder Akil Baddoo was designated for assignment as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodbery.

Baddoo, 26, was a second-round pick by the Twins back in 2016. The outfielder’s major league career wouldn’t begin until 2021, after he was selected by the Tigers in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. That first taste of big league action went remarkably well for the youngster, as he slashed an impressive .259/.330/.436 with a 108 wRC+ in 124 games for Detroit while splitting time between left field and center. Baddoo’s 26.5% strikeout rate was somewhat elevated, but he made up for it by walking at a healthy 9.8% clip and clubbing 13 homers, seven triples, and 20 doubles while swiping 18 bases during his rookie season.

That combination of power and speed was tantalizing enough that the Tigers stuck with Baddoo on a part-time basis despite lackluster numbers at the plate. Between the 2022 and ’23 season, he hit just .212/.302/.331 (80 wRC+) in 582 combined trips to the plate. While he went a decent 23-for-32 on the bases in those years, his power evaporated as he posted a combined isolated slugging percentage of just .119, down from the solid .177 figure of his rookie campaign. That downturn in performance in conjunction with the emergence of exciting outfield options like Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter from the Detroit farm system left Baddoo with fewer and fewer big league opportunities as his time in the organization continued.

That dwindling playing time in Detroit came to a head in 2024, as after a winter that saw the Tigers add Mark Canha to the lineup and a phenomenal Spring Training performance from Wenceel Perez, Baddoo found himself as the odd man out on Opening Day. Baddoo was optioned to the minors and ended up spending the overwhelming majority of his 2024 campaign at Triple-A. He made just 82 trips to the plate in the big leagues this past year and struggled badly in that limited time with a .137/.220/.301 slash line and a 32.9% strikeout rate. The Tigers kept him on the roster through last month’s non-tender deadline despite Baddoo being projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.6MM salary in his second trip through arbitration, but he’s now lost his 40-man roster spot with the club nonetheless.

Looking ahead, any club in the league will now have the opportunity to claim Baddoo off waivers if the Tigers don’t work out a trade for him within the next few days. The 26-year-old’s combination of youth and past big league success could make him an intriguing option for outfield-needy clubs, although his recent struggles and arbitration-level price tag could turn some potential suitors away.

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