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Looking For A Match In A Devin Williams Trade

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Although he’s coming off an injury-shortened 2024 season, there is little doubt that Devin Williams remains an elite closer. Upon his mid-season return from a back injury, Williams looked every bit as dominant as he did in his All-Star 2022 and ‘23 campaigns. Over 21 1/3 innings, the righty pitched to a 1.25 ERA and 2.31 SIERA, striking out 38 of the 88 batters he faced. As he enters his age-30 season, his career 1.83 ERA, 39.4% strikeout rate, and 68 saves in 78 chances tell you everything you need to know about why he could be such a valuable trade chip for the Brewers this offseason.

In October, Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters that he had to be “open-minded” about potentially trading Williams. He made similar comments in November, saying, “Certainly we have to be open to those types of things, but I think he makes our team better” (per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). Those words suggest Arnold isn’t actively shopping his closer, but his reluctance to shut down the idea speaks volumes. After all, Milwaukee has earned a reputation for trading star pitchers at least one year before they reach free agency. Back when Arnold worked under former president of baseball operations David Stearns, they dealt Josh Hader to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline. More recently, Arnold oversaw the swap that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Thanks to an excellent pitching development pipeline, the team has managed to stay competitive despite these trades. Thus, it would hardly be surprising if Williams is wearing a different uniform come Opening Day 2025.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked the Top 35 Trade Candidates of the offseason, he put Williams at no. 4, behind only White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, and Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. The fact that Williams ranked behind Helseley was partially because the latter seemed more likely to be dealt. However, recent reports suggest the Cardinals are unlikely to trade Helsley this winter after all. That should only invigorate the market for a pitcher like Williams. If Helsley is staying put, Williams is undeniably the top reliever on the trade market. 

What’s more, former Yankees closer Clay Holmes is off the free agent market after signing with the Mets to become a starting pitcher. Holmes was MLBTR’s third-highest-ranked free agent reliever this offseason. Meanwhile, MLBTR’s second-highest-ranked free agent reliever, Jeff Hoffman, has also drawn interest as a potential starter. In other words, the market for top-end, right-handed relievers is already starting to thin out.

Thus, if the Brewers trade Williams, they should be able to land a strong return commensurate with his value. At the same time, he won’t bring back quite as much young talent as Burnes (a former Cy Young winner) or Hader (who had an extra half-season of team control), so just about every interested party should have the necessary trade chips to make a compelling offer. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a return for Williams would “ideally” include a young starter, though if the Brewers are really keeping an open mind, they might be open to various return packages.

Let’s take a closer look at which teams could trade for Williams this winter:

Clear Fits

Blue Jays: From 2021-23, the Blue Jays had one of the better closers in baseball: homegrown Canadian righty Jordan Romano. However, things quickly tumbled downhill for Romano in 2024, and the rest of Toronto’s relief corps followed suit. No AL bullpen had a worse ERA, a higher home run rate, or a lower strikeout rate. The Jays are thought to be interested in re-signing Romano, but that shouldn’t preclude them from looking for a more reliable closer. Indeed, they were reportedly considering signing Holmes (as a reliever) before he ultimately landed with the Mets. Adding Williams would go a long way to help revamp one of the worst bullpens in the league.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have a strong group of arms at the back end of their bullpen, but none with significant closing experience. Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and Ryan Thompson are all coming off strong seasons. Still, GM Mike Hazen said earlier this offseason that he’d prefer to have another back-end arm to help them out, suggesting his team was at its best when capital-C closer Paul Sewald was the ninth inning guy. Hazen could be dealing with some financial constraints this winter as he tries to replace Sewald, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and more without significantly increasing payroll. So, adding Williams, whose projected $7.7MM salary is well below open market value, could be a particularly appealing move.

Phillies: The Phillies bullpen lost two high-leverage right-handers to free agency this offseason: Hoffman and Carlos Estévez. POBO Dave Dombrowski has made it clear he’s looking to add at least one righty arm to the back end of the bullpen to replace the talent he lost. That could mean bringing back Hoffman (the Phillies have reportedly shown interest in such a reunion) or targeting another free agent like Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, or Blake Treinen. After all, this team has largely preferred to flex its financial muscle rather than part with prospects to acquire star talent. However, Dombrowski has repeatedly suggested he will look to get more creative this winter. Could the Phillies and Brewers line up on a swap involving Williams and fellow trade candidate Alec Bohm?

Rangers: The Rangers arm barn is in a rough spot right now. After finishing among the AL’s bottom five bullpens in most statistical categories in 2024, Texas lost Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña to free agency. POBO Chris Young should have some money to spend this winter, but as he aims to drop beneath the luxury tax threshold, he won’t be able to throw out numerous big-money contracts as he’s done in the past. That could make an arbitration-eligible arm like Williams quite appealing. 

Royals: Lucas Erceg stepped up for the Royals after the trade deadline, putting up a 2.88 ERA over 25 innings and blossoming into the closer his new team desperately needed. Yet, Erceg’s success doesn’t mean the Royals can’t look for an upgrade at the back of the bullpen. As dominant as he looked down the stretch in 2024, he’s hardly the most experienced or reliable arm. He’ll enter his age-30 season with just 116 2/3 MLB innings under his belt and a career 4.01 ERA and 3.52 SIERA. As the Royals look to compete for the AL Central title in 2025, a bona fide closer like Williams would make for a terrific addition to the squad.

Tigers: The Tigers have a few options to close in 2025, most notably Tyler Holton, who has quietly been one of the best relievers in the game over the past two seasons. Still, no one has a lock on the closer role in Detroit, and the right-handed Williams would make an excellent complement to the southpaw Holton. Now that the Tigers are officially contenders, a proven closer like Williams is the kind of luxury they can afford as they strive to go on a deeper postseason run in 2025.

Yankees: Luke Weaver certainly earned the right to slot into the closer role for the Yankees at the end of the 2024 season and into the playoffs. At the same time, he doesn’t have a ton of late-inning relief experience, and New York might prefer to use him in a variable, multi-inning role. The Yankees made a huge splash on the trade market when they acquired Juan Soto last offseason, and they could do so again by scooping up Williams. After losing in the World Series, the Bronx Bombers are surely going to be hungry for talent — especially if they can’t re-sign Soto.

More Potential Fits

Dodgers: These days, it seems like you just can’t rule the Dodgers out on anyone. Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech both have what it takes to close for the reigning World Series champions, but neither is without his question marks. Phillips missed the World Series with a shoulder injury, while Kopech’s success in L.A. came in a pretty small sample size. With so few holes to fill on their roster, could the Dodgers look to add a superstar closer to make their super team even more super?

Giants: Following his breakout performance in 2024, Ryan Walker has the inside track on the Giants’ closer job in 2025. That said, he’s hardly a lock for the gig. New POBO Buster Posey is looking to build a legitimate postseason contender this offseason, and a closer like Williams would give the Giants more security at the end of ballgames.

Padres: After trading for Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at last summer’s trade deadline, the Padres stuck with Robert Suarez in the closer role. That’s a pretty clear indication of how much this team values Suarez, who pitched to a 2.77 ERA and 3.53 SIERA while recording 36 saves in 42 chances in 2024. That makes a trade for Williams, who would almost surely usurp Suarez as the closer, seem unlikely. Then again, Padres POBO A. J. Preller loves to pull off blockbuster swaps, and he’ll be looking for some way to replace Scott’s excellent production out of the bullpen. 

Division Rivals

The Cubs, Pirates, and Reds could all use a reliable closer. Porter Hodge was terrific for Chicago in his rookie season, but a team with legitimate postseason aspirations needs a more proven arm to anchor the bullpen. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (Alexis Díaz) and Pittsburgh (David Bednar) both have more experienced closers, but neither pitcher had a strong 2024 campaign. There is no doubt that Williams would make all three of these teams significantly more competitive in 2025.

However, it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Brewers sending Williams to a division rival. After all, it’s not as if they’d be trading him as part of a rebuilding effort. The Brewers are the reigning NL Central champions, and they’re looking to retain that crown in 2025. That will be hard enough with Williams pitching anywhere else, let alone for one of their closest competitors.

Longer Shots

Williams is such a special talent that there aren’t many teams one can completely rule out of the trade sweepstakes. The Red Sox are likely out of the running after signing Aroldis Chapman, especially since they also have Liam Hendriks at the back of their bullpen. Similarly, the Orioles (Félix Bautista), Mets (Edwin Díaz), Astros (Hader), Braves (Raisel Iglesias), and Mariners (Andrés Muñoz) already have excellent pitchers entrenched in the closer role. Still, it’s not as if any of these contenders wouldn’t be able to make room for Williams. Figuring out how to split time between two star closers is the kind of problem any manager would love to have, and adding Williams would immediately turn any of these bullpens into one of the best in the league. 

Astros Reportedly “Extensively” Shopping Ryan Pressly

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Astros right-hander Ryan Pressly is being “extensively shopped” on the trade market this winter, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. That’s not the first indication this winter that Pressly could be available, as a report emerged last month indicating that Houston had at least internally discussed dealing the veteran righty, but it’s nonetheless notable that the club has seeming begun shopping him to rival clubs on the trade market.

At the outset of the offseason, GM Dana Brown was candid about the fact that his club’s budget for this winter was looking tight. While the club has emphasized its desire to remain in contention next year, Brown acknowledged the club might have to get “creative” in addressing holes on the roster. That was a potentially ominous sign for a club that saw longtime third baseman Alex Bregman elect free agency last month, leaving them with holes at both infield corners along with room to improve on the outfield grass and in the starting rotation. RosterResource notes that the club is already on the hook for a projected $215MM payroll in 2025, just $20MM below their Opening Day payroll in 2024 and just $29MM below their end-of-season payroll this past year.

With such a tight budget, it’s easy to imagine 2024 being the end of Bregman’s tenure in Houston. That’s not something the Astros have been willing to concede to this point, however, as they’ve reportedly made an offer to Bregman since he reached free agency. The specifics of that offer aren’t entirely clear, but subsequent reporting has suggested there may be a gap between the sides as the Astros hope to retain Bregman on a deal in the range of six years and $156MM while Bregman hopes to land a deal worth at least $200MM. The uncertainty surrounding Bregman has led the Astros to consider potential fallback options, including first baseman Christian Walker and infielder Jorge Polanco, though it’s not hard to imagine Walker himself commanding an AAV that could land outside of the Astros’ comfort zone.

Whether it be in service of a more robust pursuit of Bregman or to increase their flexibility in the event he signs elsewhere, it makes plenty of sense for the Astros to consider dealing Pressly this winter. The 36-year-old hurler is due $14MM in the final year of his contract following a solid but unspectacular 2024 season where he pitched to a 3.49 ERA and 3.10 FIP in a late-inning role after being bumped from the closer role by the club’s deal for Josh Hader last winter. Pressly’s results remained solid, but his peripheral numbers took a step back as his 23.8% strikeout rate was his worst since 2016 while his 7.4% walk rate was his worst in a 162-game season since 2018.

While Pressly is obviously still a quality reliever, he’d be unlikely to receive a $14MM AAV on the open market ahead of his age-36 season this winter. That lack of clear trade value could make a trade difficult for the Astros to pull off, and any trade talks figure to be further complicated by the fact that Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with ten years of service time and five consecutive years with his current club. That means Pressly would have to approve a trade in order to be moved, and there’s no guarantee that the Dallas native who has previously signed multiple contract extensions with the Astros would be interested in leaving Houston.

Those obstacles are significant, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pressly remain in an Astros uniform next year because of them. They certainly don’t necessarily mean that a deal is impossible, however. It’s at least feasible that Pressly could have interest in being traded to a club that would be willing to use him in the ninth-inning after he racked up 102 saves in 118 chances (86.4% conversion rate) across his four years in the role with Houston. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Phillies are all among teams that could be in the market for help in the ninth inning this winter, and Nightengale suggests that Philadelphia could have particular interest in Pressly’s services.

Nightengale goes on to speculate that a deal involving Pressly and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm could make sense for both clubs if the Astros fail to land Bregman, though it’s worth noting that Bohm figures to have more value on the trade market than Pressly so a straight one-for-one swap seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Chicago is known to have interest in dealing Cody Bellinger and Houston has reportedly checked in on Bellinger this winter. That makes a swap involving Bellinger and Pressly at least a theoretical fit between the two sides, though it’s unclear if discussions between the Cubs and Astros about Bellinger even involved other names much less Pressly in particular.

Athletics Interested In Contract Extension With Brent Rooker

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The A’s shocked by the baseball world by signing Luis Severino to a three-year, $67MM contract, as few expected the team to make a franchise-record signing in advance of their planned three-year stop in West Sacramento before moving into their new ballpark in Las Vegas.  The next step could be locking up a star player on an extension, as manager Mark Kotsay told reporters (including MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos) that the team was “hopeful to get something done with” Brent Rooker.  Such a move would “continue showing a different direction for this organization in terms of making commitments to players,” Kotsay said.

While signing younger or less-established players to extensions is common practice for all teams no matter their payroll size, the tactic naturally has greater import for lower-spending teams.  Gaining cost certainty on a player through their arbitration years or gaining control over a free-agent year or two can prove to be a huge bargain for clubs that aren’t comfortable in spending big to retain those players in free agency, or to bring new high-priced talent in as replacements.

Even with this in mind, the Athletics have rarely looked to extend players, as Khris Davis’ two-year, $33.5MM deal from April 2019 is (remarkably) the only extension signed by an A’s player within the last decade.  Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to go back even further, the A’s have signed only nine extensions since October 2007.  Of those nine players, Sean Doolittle, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Kurt Suzuki the only players to sign deals longer than two years.

Rooker is already under team control through the 2027 season, and is projected to earn $5.1MM in his first trip through the arbitration process.  The 30-year-old has more than earned that healthy salary, as Rooker has been nothing short of outstanding since coming to the then-Oakland A’s on a waiver claim from the Royals in November 2022.  While Rooker’s potential was hinted by his status as the 35th overall pick of the 2017 draft, he’d hit only .200/.289/.379 over 270 plate appearances with the Twins, Padres, and Royals over the 2020-22 seasons.

The breakout started in 2023 when Rooker hit .246/.329/.488 with 30 homers in 526 PA, and he kept on climbing with 39 home runs and a .293/.365/.562 slash line over 614 PA this past season.  Only six players in baseball had a higher wRC+ than Rooker’s 164 total, as the ex-waiver pickup unexpectedly blossomed into one of the best hitters in the game.

Since the Athletics were thought to be rebuilding, there have been plenty of trade rumors swirling around Rooker, with the logic being that the A’s would look to capitalize on this found-money acquisition by selling high.  However, GM David Forst firmly stated last month that the A’s were “going to keep” the slugger, and an extension would further cement Rooker’s place as a building block for the organization.

Though the Athletics lost 93 games in 2024, they seem emboldened by their 33-32 record over their final 65 games, and might be looking to take a step forward towards contention as soon as next year.  Even if Severino’s contract was partially inspired by the Athletics’ desire to retain their revenue-sharing status, the uncharacteristically big splash indicates that the A’s are getting more serious in their plans to play competitive baseball.

It isn’t necessarily a given that the A’s are looking for a very long commitment to Rooker, as an extension could potentially just cover his arb years.  Locking in three years of salary now might help the Athletics save a bit of money in the future if Rooker keeps upping his price tag with his elite numbers.  From Rooker’s perspective, he might prefer to keep betting on himself, or he might welcome the chance to cash in on his breakout with some life-changing financial security.

Kyle Keller Re-Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

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Right-hander Kyle Keller has re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, MLBTR has learned. Keller’s new contract is a one-year deal that includes a mutual option for the 2026 season, though specific financial terms remain unclear.

Keller, 31, was an 18th-round pick by Miami back in 2015 and made his big league debut with the club back in 2019. He ultimately spent three years in the majors with the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates. He struggled through 46 1/3 big league innings during that time with a 5.83 ERA and 7.00 FIP. While he struck out opponents at a decent 22.4% clip, he was held back by an untenable 14.7% walk rate that severely limited his effectiveness at the big league level. Those struggles in the big leagues led Keller to look overseas for his next opportunity, and he eventually signed with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers for the 2022 season.

The right-hander wound up acting as a prominent late-inning arm for the club over his two seasons with them. After dominating the Western League for the Tigers’ affiliate almost immediately, he found himself promoted to the Central League rather quickly and didn’t look back with a 3.31 ERA in 32 2/3 innings of work. Importantly, he showed far better command over his arsenal in NPB play with a fantastic 35.9% strikeout rate against a microscopic 3.9% walk rate during his first year in the Central League. His peripherals weren’t quite as stellar in his second season with the Tigers, as his 23.7% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate were more reminiscent of his time in the big leagues than anything else. That didn’t stop him from posting strong results, however, as he pitched to a 1.71 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work.

Those strong results earned Keller interest both in NPB and from MLB clubs last winter, and he ultimately settled on a third season in NPB as he landed with the Yomiuri Giants on a one-year deal last winter. His 2024 season turned out to be the best of his NPB career so far as he dominated with a 1.53 ERA in 47 innings of work while flashing strong peripherals. Keller struck out an excellent 29.5% of opponents for the Giants last year, while his walk rate sat at a more manageable 10.4%. That combination of excellent results and solid peripherals backing the performance up was evidently enough convince the Giants to retain Keller for at least the 2025 season.

Given the recent MLB interest he’s received and his strong season last year, if Keller is able to turn in a similarly strong campaign at age-32 next year it wouldn’t be hard to imagine him exploring a return to stateside ball at some point in the future as other successful big league relievers like Robert Suarez have done in the past.

Rockies Sign Austin Nola To Minors Deal

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The Rockies have signed catcher Austin Nola to a minor league deal, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).  Nola will receive an invitation to the Rockies’ big league spring camp.

After signing a split contract with the Royals last winter, Nola didn’t appear in a single game in the Show, though he was briefly called up to Kansas City’s roster for a few days in June.  Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin were both so durable that the Royals never had a real need for another catcher on the roster, and Nola also didn’t do much to force the issue by hitting only .174/.260/.298 over 191 plate appearances with Triple-A Omaha.  The Royals outrighted Nola off their 40-man roster in September, and he became a free agent after the season.

Entering his age-35 season, the veteran backstop will look for a path back to the majors in Colorado, though a depth role at Triple-A is also a possibility given the number of catchers already on hand.  Jacob Stallings was re-signed to a new contract a few weeks ago, Hunter Goodman is a multi-position utility player who can catch, and top prospect Drew Romo made his MLB debut in 2024 and could be in line for more playing time on the active roster.

There is a bit of a full-circle element to Nola’s signing, as the Rockies picked him in the 48th round of the 2008 draft when Nola was still a high schooler, but he instead opted for college ball at LSU.  Nola made his MLB debut with the Mariners in 2019 and looked like a budding star, but his production gradually declined after a trade to the Padres in 2020.  He was still getting regular at-bats behind the plate in San Diego as recently as 2022, yet a sharp decline in 2023 resulted in the Padres non-tendering him a little over a year ago.

Reds Showing Interest In Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas

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“The Reds have kicked the tires on” Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas in trade talks with the Guardians, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  The Guards are known to be open to offers for either player, though there isn’t any indication that a deal with the Reds or anyone is particularly close.  Wittenmyer’s use of the “kicked the tires” phrasing might hint that this was more of an exploratory check-in for the Reds than a serious push for either Cleveland player.

Cincinnati is known to be looking at outfield additions in particular, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall recently said that any new bat brought into the Reds’ fold would “most likely” be an outfielder.  Thomas’ right-handed bat could be a complement for Jake Fraley or TJ Friedl (both left-handed hitters) in right or center field, though since the Reds’ budget may be pretty limited, Thomas’ $8.3MM projected arbitration salary is a little steep for what might ideally be a part-time role.

Thomas hit better with the Nationals (.253/.331/.407 in 341 plate appearances) than he did with the Guardians (.209/.267/.390 in 187 PA) last season, and the combined totals work out to a slightly subpar 99 wRC+.  Thomas was worth 1.3 fWAR overall in his 130 total games, as public defensive metrics strongly disliked his right field glovework, and he was middling at best as a center field.

The Reds’ infield situation is both crowded and unsettled at the same time.  On paper, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte are lined up at the top choices to see time at the corner infield slots and (probably moreso in Encarnacion-Strand’s case) at designated hitter.  However, none of this trio hit well in 2024, plus CES missed most of the season due to wrist surgery, and Marte missed the first half of the season due to a PED suspension.

Adding Naylor’s big bat at first base would add a lot more certainty to this mix, and since Naylor is only under team control through the 2025 season, there would be plenty of time down the road for Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to develop into regulars in Cincinnati’s lineup.  Naylor is coming off another quality season with the Guardians, hitting .243/.320/.456 with a career-high 31 homers over 633 PA.

Given the profiles of the two players, it is fair to speculate that the Guardians might be more willing to trade Thomas in a pure salary-dump type of move, whereas Cleveland would want a more prominent return in exchange for Naylor.  As noted earlier, the Reds’ apparent lack of financial flexibility will make things tricky for Krall’s front office, so fitting Naylor’s projected $12MM salary might be an even greater challenge, even if Naylor offers more upside.

Latest On Teoscar Hernandez’s Market

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2:17PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Hernandez but Anthony Santander appears to be Toronto’s chief backup target if Soto isn’t signed, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).

1:44PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox were previously linked to Teoscar Hernandez’s market earlier this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that the Yankees are also looking at the free agent slugger.  The three suitors all have “serious interest” in Hernandez’s services, with one noteworthy caveat — all three clubs are in the running to land Juan Soto, so Hernandez is viewed as the natural backup plan for all parties if Soto can’t be signed.

The Mets and Blue Jays are the two other teams known to still be pursuing Soto.  At the moment, all five teams seem to be still be under consideration even if the Mets and Yankees have reportedly pushed the bidding up into the range of $710-$730MM.  Los Angeles is thought to be the least aggressive of Soto’s five suitors and perhaps seems more likely to break away from the pack to pivot towards Hernandez or another option, but Cotillo figures Hernandez won’t make his own decision until after Soto signs.

Hernandez has openly said that returning to the Dodgers is “the priority” of his offseason, and “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….It feels great to be part of this.”  After a down year with the Mariners in 2023, Hernandez rebounded in the best possible way by winning a World Series and hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs over 652 plate appearances with L.A. last season.  Hernandez inked a one-year, $23.5MM contract last winter and now looks poised to land a much heftier multi-year deal this time around.

As sources tell Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (X link), Hernandez’s preference is still to remain with Los Angeles, though the Red Sox have a solid case in their own right for the slugger’s services.  The Sox made a push for Hernandez last year in offering him a two-year, $28MM deal that Hernandez turned down in order to take the greater flexibility of the Dodgers’ one-year offer, plus L.A. was the more clear-cut contender heading into 2024.  Hernandez “has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora,” Abraham writes, so with a World Series ring now in tow, Hernandez could now explore a move to Boston and perhaps a big role in a future Red Sox championship team.

The Yankees shouldn’t be overlooked as contenders, as Hernandez has also enjoyed a lot of success at Yankee Stadium over the years.  New York might have the most incentive of all these teams to bolster the lineup if Soto departs, even if adding a big bat in the infield is also a priority since Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are free agents and unlikely to return.

Rejecting the Dodgers’ qualifying offer probably won’t have much impact on Hernandez’s market, though the Yankees and Red Sox would face a differing penalty level for signing the outfielder (or any player who rejected a QO).  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024, signing Hernandez would cost the Yankees $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft.  Boston would have to give up $500K of int’l pool funds and their second-highest 2025 draft pick.  Los Angeles, of course, wouldn’t have to give up anything to sign Hernandez, as he is one of the Dodgers’ own free agents.

Mets Sign Oliver Ortega To Minors Contract

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The Mets have signed right-hander Oliver Ortega to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to New York’s big league spring camp, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (X link).  Ortega was outrighted off the Astros’ 40-man roster in November, and since it wasn’t his first career outright, he chose to enter free agency.

The 28-year-old Ortega made his Major League debut in 2021, and he has a 4.03 ERA, 20.4% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate over 58 career relief innings with the Angels and Twins.  After Houston claimed him off waivers from the Twins in October 2023, Ortega’s tenure as an Astro came and went without a single game played in either the majors or minors.  A pair of surgeries cost Ortega the entire 2024 season, as an initial procedure in Spring Training to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow didn’t take, and he needed another surgery in late June to remove a bone spur from that same right elbow.

While a minor league deal doesn’t represent a huge commitment, the Mets seem satisfied enough with Ortega’s health situation to at least give him a look during Spring Training.  Ortega’s career Triple-A numbers include a 3.61 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.42% walk rate over 72 1/3 innings, so he might be able to tap into that potential if he can improve his control against big league hitters.

Report: Diamondbacks Explored Montgomery/Bellinger Trade With Cubs

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There has been plenty of trade speculation surrounding the Diamondbacks’ Jordan Montgomery and the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger this offseason, as both players have outsized salaries and are somewhat imperfect roster fits on their respective clubs.  These same issues have seemingly led to a rather quiet trade market for either player to date, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Arizona “tried to get the Cubs interested in a swap” involving the two players.  It isn’t known if the proposed deal was a straight one-for-one trade or if other players were involved, though it could be a moot point since the Cubs apparently didn’t have much interest.

Bellinger chose to pass on his opt-out clause in the wake of only an okay 2024 season, leaving him on Chicago’s roster through the 2026 season for $52.5MM in remaining salary.  This breaks down as $27.5MM in 2025, and then Bellinger can either opt out of the final year of the deal and pocket a $5MM buyout on his way back to free agency, or he can again forego the opt-out clause and earn $25MM in 2026.

Montgomery also decided against opting out of the final year of his two-year deal Arizona, and will receive $22.5MM for the 2025 season.  Whereas a case could’ve been made for Bellinger to test the market again this winter, there was no doubt Montgomery would be staying in his contract in the wake of a disastrous first season with the D’Backs.  Montgomery signed with Arizona just before Opening Day and then struggled to a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings, seemingly a by-product of missing Spring Training and not having a proper ramp-up due to his extended stint in free agency.

D’Backs owner Ken Kendrick was publicly critical of the Montgomery signing during a radio interview back in October, which was viewed as either some surprisingly harsh honesty from an executive about a player, or as Kendrick’s attempt to try and get Montgomery to opt out of his contract just to pursue a fresh start elsewhere.  If the latter, the tactic obviously didn’t work, and Nightengale writes that “the Diamondbacks are shopping [Montgomery] everywhere” to try and move that salary off the books.

A Montgomery-for-Bellinger trade is fascinating for several reasons, beginning with the simple fact that they were both members of the so-called “Boras Four.”  Along with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, Montgomery and Bellinger were both represented by agent Scott Boras last offseason, and all four players ended up settling for shorter-term contracts with opt-out after lengthy stints in free agency didn’t result in the lucrative longer-term pacts each player was looking to score.  It should be noted that Chapman and Snell have now found such contracts in the last few months — Chapman via his extension with the Giants and Snell’s new five-year deal with the Dodgers.

From a pure baseball perspective, swapping Montgomery for Bellinger helps the D’Backs and Cubs each address some needs.  Bellinger would bring offense to an Arizona team that might be losing Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk in free agency, and Bellinger could slot right in as a replacement for Walker at first base.  While Bellinger’s left-handed bat would further imbalance a Diamondbacks lineup that is already heavy with lefty swingers, Bellinger’s ability to play the outfield could make the D’Backs more comfortable in trading one of their in-house left-handed hitting outfielders.  Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas are the likeliest trade candidates, since obviously Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere.

The Diamondbacks have a rotation surplus that is also drawing trade interest, and moving Montgomery to the Cubs would help Chicago bolster the back of its rotation.  Matthew Boyd was recently signed to join Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon in the Cubs’ starting five, and though Javier Assad is lined up for that fifth starter’s job, the Cubs are reportedly open to more additions in the starting pitching department.  Trading for Montgomery would give Chicago its own semi-surplus of rotation options that could be turned into trade chips, and also move Bellinger out of the Cub’ crowded outfield and first base situation.

Despite his rough 2024 numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montgomery rebound to his old self now that he’ll have the benefit of a normal offseason.  It’s probably safe to assume that he’d be a popular bounce-back candidate in trade talks if it wasn’t for the $22.5MM price tag, as rival teams might not want to make quite that big of a bet that Montgomery can regain his old form.

The Astros, Mariners, and Yankees have all shown some degree of interest in Bellinger, and New York in particular could emerge as a stronger suitor if the team doesn’t re-sign Juan Soto.  Even if the numbers haven’t matched up to date for the Cubs in finding a trade partner for Bellinger, this active market could be a reason why the Cubs are aiming a bit higher in their pursuits than perhaps settling for Montgomery in a swap of unfavorable contracts.

While Bellinger might yet opt out after 2025, the Diamondbacks would be facing the bigger financial burden in taking on two years of salary in exchange for Montgomery’s final remaining year.  After the 2025 season, however, a good deal of money is coming off Arizona’s books, as Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly are all free agents next winter.  That could make fitting Bellinger into the 2026 payroll a bit more palatable for the Snakes.

Pirates Sign Tanner Rainey, Hunter Stratton To Minor League Contracts

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The Pirates have signed right-handers Tanner Rainey and Hunter Stratton to minors deals, as respectively reported by Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton (X link) and Stratton’s MLB.com profile page.  Rainey’s contract contains an invitation to the Pirates’ big league spring camp, and it can be assumed that Stratton’s deal also has an invite, though Stratton’s uncertain health situation in the wake of knee surgery could limit his participation in Spring Training.

Rainey heads to Pittsburgh after a topsy-turvy six-year run with the Nationals, highlighted by a World Series ring in his first year with the club.  Rainey delivered a 3.91 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate in 48 1/3 relief innings for that 2019 championship team, but also had an ugly 17.8% walk rate.  These control issues plagued Rainey for most of his time in Washington, and he also missed virtually all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

After Rainey posted a 4.76 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate over 51 innings in 2024, the Nationals unsurprisingly decided to non-tender the righty, even though Rainey was projected for a modest $1.9MM arbitration salary.  Now entering his age-32 season, Rainey will look to rebuild himself in the Bucs’ spring camp, and hopefully regain some of the form and velocity that made him a valuable bullpen asset for the Nats in 2020 and 2022.

Stratton was also non-tendered by the Pirates in November, but there was an expectation that Pittsburgh would (just as they did last offseason) re-sign the righty to a new minor league deal.  Stratton has an impressive 3.26 ERA and 4.9% walk rate across 49 2/3 career Major League innings, all with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons.  Despite a lack of big strikeout totals, Stratton’s ability to induce soft contact has made him an interesting relief option out of the Pirates’ bullpen.

Unfortunately for Stratton, his 2024 season was cut short by a flukish injury on August 24 that left him with a ruptured patellar tendon.  Stratton was behind home plate at PNC Park and pursuing a loose ball when he stumbled into the stone wall, causing the injury and putting his career on hold for an estimated 7-10 months.  This fluid timeline means that Stratton would return anywhere from Opening Day to late June, but the minor league contract gives him plenty of time to fully get himself right during Spring Training or in the Pirates’ farm system.

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