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Kona Takahashi Could Return To NPB

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Right-hander Tatsuya Imai found an MLB home earlier today, signing a three-year deal with the Astros. The same can’t be said for Imai’s former Seibu Lions teammate, Kona Takahashi, whose posting window closes on Sunday. With just one major league offer on the table, Takahashi could be headed back to Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Mark Feinsand and Brian Murphy of MLB.com.

Imai landed a contract on the final day of his posting window, so there’s certainly still time for Takahashi to find a desirable deal. Feinsand and Murphy didn’t provide additional details about the lone offer in front of Takahashi, but their report suggests it might not be enough to coax the righty stateside. The duo suggested that Takahashi could head back to the Lions on a new multi-year deal with opt-outs that would allow him to hit the open market following the 2026 season as an unrestricted free agent. Avoiding the posting system and the associated release fees could make Takahashi more appealing to MLB teams next offseason.

The 28-year-old Takahashi bounced back to a degree in 2025 after a down year in 2024. He posted an ERA just over 3.00 across 24 starts with the Lions. He continued to show impeccable control (6.7% walk rate), though his strikeout rate fell to a career-low 14.3%. Takahashi had made just 15 starts the prior season. He recorded a 3.87 ERA in 2024 and failed to reach 120 innings for the first time since 2018.

Takahashi had a stellar two-year run from 2022 to 2023. He put together consecutive seasons with a sub-2.25 ERA while pushing his strikeout rate up near 20%. Takahashi tossed a career-high 175 2/3 innings in 2022, then came back with a 155-inning campaign the following year. Outside of 2024, he’s typically been a durable member of the Lions’ rotation.

James Fegan and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs pegged Takahashi as a backend starter, with praise for his pitching prowess but questions about his underwhelming fastball. Fegan and Longenhagen tiered Takahashi with Foster Griffin and Anthony Kay as potential options to fill out an MLB rotation. Griffin landed with the Nationals on a one-year deal, while Kay secured a two-year commitment from the White Sox.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken, Imagn Images

Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers Have Checked In On Bo Bichette

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Interest in free agent infielder Bo Bichette has mostly been limited to a pair of AL East teams this offseason. Toronto is known to be open to a reunion, while Boston has met with the two-time All-Star over Zoom. Three teams are now joining the Blue Jays and Red Sox in the race for Bichette’s services, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers have checked in on him.

New York is one of the few contenders without a concrete plan at shortstop. Anthony Volpe is coming off a brutal season and will miss the beginning of the 2026 campaign following labrum surgery. Utilityman José Caballero will likely cover shortstop until Volpe returns. The Yankees also re-signed Amed Rosario, who has plenty of experience playing up the middle.

Top prospect George Lombard Jr. is a candidate to handle the position in the future, but stepping in as soon as this season would be a tall task for the 20-year-old. Adding Bichette would obviously be a long-term commitment, though he could move to second or third base once Lombard is ready.

The Yankees have been primarily connected to pitchers and outfielders in free agency, but a notable internal development could adjust that approach. Reports emerged in mid-December that the team was listening to offers on infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. With the front office potentially less than enthused about extending Chisholm, who will be a free agent in 2027, flipping him now could make sense. Chisholm’s departure would open up a spot at second base, a position Bichette has said he’d be willing to play.

The case for the Cubs is similar. Chicago doesn’t have an obvious need up the middle, with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner locked in at shortstop and second base, respectively. However, Hoerner is drawing trade interest. The speedy infielder is entering the final season of the three-year, $35MM extension he signed in 2024. Just like with the Yankees and Chisholm, if the Cubs aren’t planning to bring Hoerner back, moving him for other assets would be a sensible path. Hoerner is coming off a strong season in which he hit .297 with 29 stolen bases.

There’s also the third base option. The hot corner has been vaguely mentioned as a defensive landing spot for Bichette, who’s seen his metrics fall off considerably at shortstop. In a separate post mentioning several free agents, including Bichette, Heyman reported that he’s drawing interest at second base, shortstop, and third base. Bichette could be a fallback option of sorts if Chicago comes up short in its pursuit of Alex Bregman.

Bichette had only played shortstop at the MLB level until a brief cameo at second base this past postseason. In his return from a September knee injury, Bichette appeared in five games at the keystone in the World Series. He played 30 games at second base in the minors. Bichette has never appeared at third base as a professional. His subpar arm strength wouldn’t be ideal at the position, but it could be a better spot for his declining range. Bichette ranked in the first percentile in Outs Above Average last season. At third base, he’d have the foul line as a bumper on one side, with the rangy Andres Gimenez supporting him on the other side.

The Dodgers have Mookie Betts locked in at shortstop, but second base is a short-term hole, and third base could be a long-term need. Deficiencies are relative when it comes to the back-to-back champs, of course. The second base mix currently includes KBO import Hyeseong Kim, prospect Alex Freeland, and the recently re-signed Miguel Rojas. Tommy Edman could also factor in when he’s not playing the outfield. Even if there isn’t a clear standout in the group, there are probably enough options for LA to adequately cover the position without a major addition like Bichette.

Once again, third base is a more interesting discussion. The Dodgers reupped with Max Muncy via a $10MM club option. He’s only signed through 2026, though. Muncy will turn 36 before the end of next season. Injuries have cost him significant time in each of the past two years. His tenure with the Dodgers is likely coming to an end at some point in the near future. If the club views Bichette as a viable fit at third base, he could spend a year at second base and then transition to the hot corner for the rest of what is likely to be a lengthy contract.

Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images

Astros To Sign Tatsuya Imai

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The Astros and right-hander Tatsuya Imai are in agreement on a three-year, $54MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that Imai can earn up to $3MM per year in incentives if he reaches 100 innings. The deal contains opt-outs after every year, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Imai is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Imai was one of the top starters available in free agency and coming off a career-best 1.92 ERA season with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It was reported several days ago that he was meeting with teams in-person in advance of his January 2 signing deadline. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles were among the clubs interested in signing him, so the Astros are a bit of a surprise destination.

We at MLBTR ranked Imai No. 7 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. This deal with Houston comes in at half the length of that projection, with around a third of the guaranteed money. It appeared that Imai had other offers on the table for longer terms but lower AAVs (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). The opt-outs in his deal with Houston allow him to try for a bigger contract in future offseasons if he can prove himself in MLB.

Imai is 27 years old (28 in May) and has pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 963 2/3 career NPB innings. He debuted in 2018 at age 20 and made 16 appearances (15 starts), but struggled with a 4.97 ERA. Those early struggles continued from 2019-20. In the pandemic season, Imai had a 6.13 ERA in 61 2/3 innings and walked more batters than he struck out, which resulted in him temporarily being moved to the bullpen. He rebounded in 2021, posting a 3.30 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with an improved strikeout rate, and he has stuck as a starting pitcher ever since.

That kicked off a run of dominance from 2022-25. After posting a 2.41 ERA in nine starts with the Lions in 2022, Imai followed up with a 2.30 ERA and a 24.4% strikeout rate in 133 innings in 2023. While he did walk 11.4% of hitters that year, his strikeout and walk numbers improved year over year from 2023-25. This year, he struck out 27.8% of hitters (highest among qualified NPB starters) and walked just 7.0%. His 20.7% K-BB rate was third-best in that league. Imai also did very well at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just six home runs all season (0.33 HR/9) and inducing groundballs 48.3% of the time. Overall, he enters the majors with a higher ceiling and much-improved control compared to his early career.

In terms of stuff, Imai profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 99 mph, and he also throws a slider, splitter, and changeup. His excellent performance from 2022-25 made him an attractive target in free agency, although some evaluators were concerned about his secondary stuff and past struggles with control. It seemed that industry opinion was mixed on whether he could succeed as a big-league starter, which resulted in the lower-than-expected guarantee.

At the time of his posting, a $150MM deal seemed like a real possibility. These days, teams value youth and upside and are willing to pay a premium to get it. Recent offseasons have seen players like Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sign for over a decade and at least $500MM in guaranteed money. Among Japanese players, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee came to the majors after their age-24 seasons and earned $100M+ deals. Imai is several years older than Yamamoto was when he signed and has a shorter track record as a front-of-the-rotation arm. While he was never going to match Yamamoto’s deal, Imai’s year-over-year improvement and relative youth were enough for the Astros to want him in their rotation.

Houston’s interest was not widely known, though it makes sense that they wanted another starting pitcher. Longtime ace Framber Valdez is currently a free agent. The team has had some discussions with Valdez’s camp, though the expectation is that he will sign elsewhere on a pricier contract. Hunter Brown was phenomenal in 2025, totaling 185 1/3 innings with a 2.43 ERA. That figure was third-best among qualified starters, trailing only Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. He also posted an 85th-percentile strikeout rate and a 77th-percentile groundball rate. Altogether, he was worth 4.6 fWAR and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. He’ll return as the staff ace in 2026.

Behind Brown, the rotation looks shaky. Cristian Javier currently projects as the No. 2 starter. He owns a 3.66 ERA in 538 career innings, but he pitched just 71 2/3 innings from 2024-25 due to Tommy John surgery. In just 37 innings this year, Javier had a 4.62 ERA with a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate. He is under contract through 2027. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. has had his own injury troubles, pitching just 103 innings in the past four years and missing 2023-24 entirely. Even if he performs well in 2026, the team will monitor his workload carefully. The recently-acquired Mike Burrows will play some role. He had a 3.94 ERA in 96 innings this year with an impressive 16.4% K-BB rate, though his overall track record is fairly minimal.

The addition of Imai gives the Astros a durable No. 2 or 3 starter at an affordable rate. It remains to be seen how his strikeout and groundball potential will translate against major-league hitting, though the club is surely hoping he can maintain his performance from Japan. The signing brings the Astros’ projected payroll to $242MM, according to RosterResource. The club was a second-time luxury tax payor this year and is hoping to avoid paying it for a third time. The first luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244MM, so the club will likely need to shed payroll if it wants to add to other areas of the roster.

With Imai now off the board, any clubs in need of a starter will need to look elsewhere. Dylan Cease was the top free agent pitcher entering the offseason and has since signed with the Blue Jays. Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, and Lucas Giolito are still available in free agency. Valdez and Suarez are front-of-the-rotation options, while Gallen, Bassitt and Giolito are cheaper, mid-rotation arms.

Meanwhile, the Lions will receive a posting fee based on Imai’s $54MM guarantee. The current system for international postings gives the original club 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything over $50MM. That works out to $9.975MM, so the Astros are on the hook for just under $64MM between the contract’s guaranteed money and the posting fee.

Giants To Sign Tyler Mahle

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Today: Mahle is guaranteed $10MM on the deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Performance bonuses could bump it up near $13MM, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.

Dec. 31: The Giants are closing in on a deal with free agent right-hander Tyler Mahle, reports Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s a one-year pact, per Rubin. The 31-year-old Mahle is a client of ISE Baseball.

Mahle is coming off an injury-riddled 2025 with the Rangers, though he was productive when healthy. The veteran righty was one of the most pleasant early-season surprises, pitching to a 1.64 ERA over the first two months of the season. Mahle allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his first 12 starts to begin the campaign. He was knocked around for eight earned runs across his first two starts of June, then hit the IL with shoulder fatigue. Mahle returned for a pair of outings in September, allowing a run over 9 2/3 innings.

Persistent maladies have limited Mahle to just 125 innings over the past three seasons. He made nine starts across a season and a half with Minnesota, missing time with a strained shoulder and a forearm issue. It was a disappointing outcome for the Twins, who parted with Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to land Mahle at the 2022 trade deadline. After signing with Texas in December 2023, Mahle missed the first four months of the year while recovering from elbow surgery. After three games with his new club, he went down with shoulder tightness and missed the rest of the year.

Mahle was routinely striking out more than a batter per inning during his peak years with Cincinnati, but those numbers have tailed off as the injuries have mounted. Mahle posted an uninspiring 19.1% strikeout rate last season. He sat at 92 mph with his fastball, down a couple of ticks from his best seasons with the Reds. The ERA estimators all suggest Mahle’s 2.18 ERA in 2025 should be viewed with skepticism. His xERA and xFIP were both above 4.00, while his SIERA was all the way up at 4.62. Mahle ran hot with home run luck (4.9% HR/FB), while also benefiting from a career-high 84.6% LOB%.

It was reported in mid-December that the Giants were still in the market for pitching after signing righty Adrian Houser. With Justin Verlander hitting free agency, the club entered the offseason with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray as the only guaranteed members of the 2026 rotation. Landen Roupp, who missed the final six weeks of the 2025 campaign with a knee injury, is also expected to be on the staff. Houser and Mahle are the favorites to round out the group.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey entered the offseason focused on adding to the rotation and the bullpen. While the club has been connected to some of the bigger names on the starter market, including Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen, the moves so far have been relatively minor. Houser came on board via a two-year, $22MM pact with a club option for a third season. The Giants added relievers Jason Foley and Sam Hentges on cheap deals. Mahle now joins the squad on a one-year deal.

Given the injury histories for Ray and Mahle, plus the limited track record for Roupp, San Francisco will likely need to lean on internal options for additional innings. Carson Whisenhunt, Carson Seymour, and Kai-Wei Teng all received opportunities last season, but none delivered useful results. Hayden Birdsong graduated from a long relief role to the rotation, but control issues led to a demotion to Triple-A. Keaton Winn and Blade Tidwell (acquired in the Tyler Rogers trade) missed time with injuries. Trevor McDonald might be the leading candidate to open the year as the sixth starter/injury fill-in. The righty closed the year with a pair of stellar outings, tossing six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers and striking out 10 Rockies over seven frames.

RosterResource currently has the Giants’ payroll at $175MM for 2026. That mark doesn’t include Mahle’s deal or the $17MM payment owed to Blake Snell in mid-January as part of his deferred signing bonus. When adding in those considerations, the club is on track to comfortably exceed the $177MM it spent on payroll last season. The increase in expenses could be the reason the Giants ultimately rounded out the rotation with low-cost veterans in Houser and Mahle. A general hesitation by the front office to pursue long-term deals for starters likely also factored in.

Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Poll: Will The Braves Add A Starter This Winter?

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The Braves have been very aggressive to this point in free agency. They kicked off their offseason by re-upping with closer Raisel Iglesias on a one-year deal ahead of his age-36 season. From there, they bolstered their bullpen further by bringing in veteran flamethrower Robert Suarez on a three-year deal. In addition to those moves, the offense has been tweaked in some significant ways. Mike Yastrzemski was brought in to shore up the team’s outfield depth following Marcell Ozuna’s departure in free agency. Ha-Seong Kim re-signed with the club to become the everyday shortstop in 2026, and the team even brought in Mauricio Dubon to offer depth in a utility capacity.

Coming off a 76-86 season, it’s understandable for Atlanta to be aggressive as they look to get back into contention and make the most of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s remaining years under club control. Bringing back Iglesias and adding Suarez to a bullpen that already had Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer in the late-inning mix is sure to give Atlanta one of the more intimidating bullpens in the league, and a full season from Kim should also be very impactful given that the Braves relied on Nick Allen as their shortstop for most of the 2025 season. That could be enough of a facelift for the offense by itself if Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies play closer to their potential than they did last year, but the additions of Yastrzemski and Dubon should be able to to offer more established backup plans than the team had last year to keep the offense afloat.

Strong as the bullpen and offense appear to be at this point, they weren’t the part of the team that most significantly hampered the Braves last year. It’s hard to argue against the team’s biggest weakness last year being the starting rotation, despite the elite talent it boasts on paper. Chris Sale won a Cy Young award in 2024 and spent much of 2025 looking poised to repeat. Spencer Strider was widely considered perhaps the game’s most exciting young arm just a couple of years ago. Spencer Schwellenbach has done nothing but deliver since making his big league debut, and Reynaldo Lopez has been brilliant since returning to the rotation after years in the bullpen.

Unfortunately, each of those pitchers spent significant time on the injured list last year. Lopez made just one start, while Schwellenbach and Sale combined for a measly 37 more. Strider made 24 starts but didn’t look quite like himself in his return from UCL surgery, with a below-average 4.45 ERA and a 24.3% strikeout rate far below his usual norms. That middling production still made Strider one of the more reliable pitchers in the Atlanta rotation for much of the year, as injuries required more and more starts be afforded to depth arms like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes, and Joey Wentz.

That’s a lot to go wrong for one rotation in a single year. With as much talent loaded into that rotation as the Braves have, it wouldn’t be a shock if their starters were among the best in baseball next year. Sale remains a likely future Hall of Famer who should be elite when healthy. Schwellenbach has a career 3.23 ERA with peripherals to match. Strider could easily regain his Cy Young caliber form as he moves further away from surgery, and Lopez received Cy Young votes himself in 2024 for his work as a starter. At the same time, the health of starting pitchers is less reliable than ever, and assuming any of those players will make 30 starts could prove foolhardy. It hardly seems like a coincidence that Atlanta’s starting rotation lacked consistency in its first year after losing Max Fried, one of the most reliable top-of-the-rotation innings eaters in the entire sport. While depth types like Holmes and Elder remain on the roster to pick up the slack, they certainly weren’t enough last year.

That makes the addition of a quality, reliable starter seem like an obvious choice. The market for starters has been fairly quiet so far outside of a big signing for Dylan Cease back in November, and plenty of options remain on the market. Someone like Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez could provide a reasonable facsimile to the stability Fried offered for years at the top of the Braves’ rotation, but Atlanta needn’t necessarily aim that high. Even adding an arm like Zac Gallen or Lucas Giolito would go a very long way to providing reliable innings to the rotation, and that sort of deal could be more affordable than the nine-figure contracts players like Valdez and Suarez figure to command.

While signing a starter would make plenty of sense, there’s some opportunity cost to doing so. That’s because right-hander Hurston Waldrep has the chance to be a major x-factor if given the opportunity to start. After a rocky debut in 2024, the team’s top pitching prospect enjoyed a strong run of ten appearances in 2025 where he pitched to a 2.88 ERA across 56 1/3 innings of work. Waldrep won’t turn 24 until March and could be an exciting addition to the rotation if given the chance, but that opportunity may only be available to him if the team doesn’t sign a starter. Of course, the team’s uncertain health outlooks in the rest of the rotation provide a reasonable counterargument to that; Waldrep may not need to wait very long to grab a rotation spot even if he’s pushed out of the team’s starting five on paper.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to the team bringing in a reliable starter is payroll. Atlanta is currently projected for a $256MM luxury tax payroll, according to RosterResource. That’s a jump of around $40MM relative to last year, though it’s actually around $20MM less than Atlanta put forward in 2024. If the Braves are willing to stay aggressive and spend to that 2024 level, perhaps adding someone like Giolito to the mix could be feasible. Failing that, however, the Braves would likely have to turn to the trade market to add an impactful starter. Doing so would likely mean surrendering young talent (such as Waldrep or infielder Nacho Alvarez Jr.) that the team appears reluctant to part with. Lower-tier starters like Jose Quintana and Zack Littell could be options as well, but it’s an open question whether they’d be substantially more effective than internal options like Waldrep or even Holmes.

How do MLBTR readers think Atlanta will put their rotation together headed into the 2026 season? Will they make a surefire addition like Valdez or Giolito, or will they instead go into the season with more or less the same group they have now? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Imai, A’s, Giants

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Happy New Year from MLB Trade Rumors! Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world as we kick off 2026:

1. Imai countdown continues:

The posting window for NPB right-hander Tatsuya Imai is set to close tomorrow at 4pm CT. With just over 30 hours to go before the deadline for Imai to sign a contract, the rumor mill has remained fairly quiet regarding Imai’s market. While early connections were drawn between the right-hander and the Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles, it’s been nearly a month since many of those rumors began percolating with minimal updates from there. Imai reportedly began in-person meetings with teams earlier this week, and while no new rumors have percolated as a result of those meetings, the right-hander figures to be in the final stages of his decision-making process at this point. Where will the 27-year-old righty land? MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the best fits for Imai in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

2. A’s continue extension talks:

The A’s inked slugger Tyler Soderstrom to a seven-year extension last week that was first reported on Christmas Day. Soderstrom, 24, was a first-round pick by the A’s back in 2020 and is coming off a breakout season where he slashed .276/.346/.474 with 60 extra-base hits (including 25 homers) in 158 games while primarily playing left field for the club. Soderstrom joins Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker among the players who have already extended with the A’s long-term, but reporting has indicated that they’re not done yet. Extension talks are reportedly ongoing with other players, and while it’s unclear whether those deals will get done or who exactly the team is pursuing a long-term deal with, the idea of signing Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, or Shea Langeliers to a long-term contract is surely exciting for fans of the team. Will any more deals get done?

3. Giants bring in Mahle:

It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the Giants so far, but yesterday they made a significant addition to their rotation when they signed right-hander Tyler Mahle to a one-year deal. Mahle’s signing has not yet been made official and his salary has not been reported at this point, but the move figures to significantly bolster the team’s rotation headed into 2026. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander returned to free agency after one year in San Francisco, leaving little certainty in the Giants’ rotation behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. Mahle should help offer some of that certainty alongside fellow righty Adrian Houser, who signed on a two-year deal just two weeks ago.

With Houser and Mahle now in the fold, it seems likely that the Giants are done with rotation additions at this point and will simply fill out the fifth spot in their rotation with internal options like Landen Roupp and Hayden Birdsong. Could they turn towards addressing the lineup next? The club has reportedly shown interest in Cody Bellinger during his free agency, while Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner and Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan have both caught the club’s attention on the trade market.

The Best Fits For Tatsuya Imai

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Decision time nears for Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. He needs to finalize a contract with an MLB team by Friday at 4:00 pm Central if he's to make the move stateside this year. There's no indication that he's considering sticking with the Seibu Lions, meaning an agreement should be imminent. While there's a little over 48 hours to make the deal official, Imai must agree to terms with enough margin to complete a standard physical.

The 27-year-old (28 in May) is conducting in-person meetings with interested teams in Los Angeles this week. The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He’s coming off a 1.92 ERA showing with 178 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best 27% strikeout rate since the start of 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throwing has progressed as he has gained experience. This past season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.

Whichever team that signs Imai will owe a release fee to the Lions. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending. Imai isn't expected to come close to the $325MM deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto commanded two offseasons ago. He's a few years older and simply not as good. Yet it's generally believed that he'll command a nine-figure guarantee, perhaps into the $150MM range, from a team that feels he's a mid-rotation arm.

Which clubs are best positioned to make that investment? Salary projections are courtesy of RosterResource.

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Each Team’s Free Agent Activity So Far

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The New Year serves as a symbolic halfway point of the offseason. It has been just under two months since the Dodgers came back in Toronto to repeat as World Series champions. We’re exactly six weeks away from pitchers and catchers beginning to report to Spring Training.

Twenty eight of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have come off the board, though most of the marquee names remain. Seven of the top 10 are unsigned. We’re less than two days away from resolution on #7 free agent Tatsuya Imai, whose posting window closes on Friday afternoon. The overall volume of free agent activity is similar to last offseason, when 26 of our top 50 players were off the board on New Year’s Eve. However, a lot of last winter’s early activity was concentrated at the top of the market, as five of our top six free agents had signed before the close of December. Dylan Cease and Munetaka Murakami are the only two of our top eight who have signed so far this offseason.

Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker (a tool available to Front Office subscribers), we can find every team’s free agent activity thus far. Players who accepted the $22.025MM qualifying offer are treated as free agent signings. Four contracts negotiated between the end of the regular season and November 6 — the Guardians’ deal with Austin Hedges, Baltimore’s signing of Dietrich Enns, the Royals’ deal with Salvador Perez, and the Cubs’ contract with Colin Rea — are excluded. Those all came before those players were permitted to speak with other teams and are thus extensions rather than free agent contracts.

As always, this is not meant as an exhaustive look at a team’s offseason activity. The Royals (Maikel Garcia) and Athletics (Tyler Soderstrom) have each signed a significant contract extension. The Red Sox are one of two teams that has yet to sign an MLB free agent contract, but they’ve taken on nearly $40MM in 2026 salary via trades for Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Johan Oviedo. This is strictly a look at what teams have so far accomplished through free agency.

For this exercise, we’ll take the total amount even if the contract includes deferred money. Teams are ordered by overall spending.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

Total guarantees: $277MM

2. Baltimore Orioles

Total guarantees: $195.1MM

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Total guarantees: $182MM

4. New York Mets

Total guarantees: $113MM

5. Atlanta Braves

Total guarantees: $106.25MM

6. Seattle Mariners

Total guarantees: $99.75MM

7. San Diego Padres

Total guarantees: $91.2MM

8. Los Angeles Dodgers

Total guarantees: $74.5MM

9. Detroit Tigers

Total guarantees: $59.025MM

10. Chicago Cubs

Total guarantees: $53.525MM

11. Chicago White Sox

Total guarantees: $50.5MM

12. Arizona Diamondbacks

Total guarantees: $50.25MM

13. Pittsburgh Pirates

Total guarantees: $36.75MM

14. San Francisco Giants

Note: Salary terms on San Francisco’s one-year deal with Tyler Mahle remain unreported. Once finalized, that’ll likely push them into the mid-$30MM range. Their placement above the Yankees assumes Mahle’s guarantee is north of $4MM.

Total guarantees: More than $25.4MM

15. New York Yankees

Total guarantees: $29.025MM

16. Cincinnati Reds

Total guarantees: $25.9MM

17. Tampa Bay Rays

Total guarantees: $25MM

18. Milwaukee Brewers

Total guarantees: $22.025MM

19. Texas Rangers

Total guarantees: $20.625MM

20. Miami Marlins

Total guarantees: $15MM

21. Los Angeles Angels

Total guarantees: $12.95MM

22. St. Louis Cardinals

Total guarantees: $12.5MM

23. Cleveland Guardians

Total guarantees: $7.9MM

24. Minnesota Twins

Total guarantees: $7MM

25. Kansas City Royals

Total guarantees: $6.15MM

26. Washinton Nationals

Total guarantees: $5.5MM

27. Houston Astros

Total guarantees: $3.95MM

28. Athletics

Total guarantees: $2.85MM

T-29. Boston Red Sox/Colorado Rockies

Total guarantees: $0

  • Boston and Colorado have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason.

Kona Takahashi’s Posting Window Nearing Conclusion

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Most of the focus this week has been on the concluding posting windows for NPB stars Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto. They’re not the only two Japanese free agents whose situations will be resolved within the next few days. Right-hander Kona Takahashi will also need to sign this week if he’s going to make the jump to MLB this offseason.

As MLB.com’s Brian Murphy noted at the time, Takahashi was formally posted by the Seibu Lions on November 21. That’s the same date as Okamoto’s posting. Both players have until Sunday, January 4 at 4:00 pm Central to sign. Imai was posted two days earlier, so his 45-day window closes on Friday afternoon.

Imai and Okamoto are reportedly meeting with clubs in Los Angeles this week. There’s little doubt that both players are going to sign before the end of their posting deadlines. That’s less clear with Takahashi, who doesn’t have nearly the same swing-and-miss upside that Imai brings to the table. Takahashi struck out only 14.3% of batters faced across 24 starts in 2025. He has never recorded a strikeout rate higher than 20% in an NPB season.

Takahashi is headed into his age-29 season. He has been an effective control artist in Japan, walking fewer than 7% of batters faced in consecutive seasons. He posted a 3.04 earned run average over 148 innings last year and owns a 3.39 mark over parts of 11 NPB campaigns. James Fegan and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in October that Takahashi projected as a fifth starter in MLB. FanGraphs grouped him alongside Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin in that tier. Kay went on to sign a two-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox. Griffin signed a one-year deal at $5.5MM with Washington.

A Japanese-language report from Sanspo in the middle of December indicated that Takahashi’s camp was in contact with three unnamed teams. It’s not known if he has received any MLB offers, nor is it clear that Takahashi would make the move to affiliated ball if teams are only willing to put minor league proposals on the table. If he doesn’t sign with an MLB club, he’d remain with the Lions.

Alexander Canario Signs With NPB’s Seibu Lions

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The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced the signing of outfielder Alexander Canario earlier this month. He had been non-tendered by the Pirates at the end of the season.

Canario, 25, heads overseas for the first time in his career. A notable prospect during his time in the Cubs system, he plateaued in the upper minors because of increasing strikeout concerns. Canario never got much of a big league look in Chicago and bounced around a bit last winter. The Cubs traded him to the Mets in February. New York designated him for assignment on Opening Day and flipped him to Pittsburgh for cash considerations.

The Bucs kept the out-of-options Canario on their roster all season. He played in a little over half their games and tallied a career-high 234 plate appearances. Canario struggled to a .218/.274/.338 slash while striking out 80 times (34.2%). Among hitters with 200+ trips to the dish, only Luke Raley, Gabriel Arias, Michael A. Taylor and Christopher Morel swung and missed more frequently. Canario graded well defensively in his 521 innings split between the three outfield spots, but the lack of offense and roster flexibility led the Bucs to drop him.

Canario takes a career .252/.345/.521 Triple-A batting line to NPB. He has connected on 32 home runs in 120 games at the top minor league level. He’s an above-average runner with a plus arm and significant raw power. It’s the kind of profile that generally plays better in foreign leagues, where the average velocity and strikeout rate is lower than it is MLB. Canario would have been limited to minor league offers had he remained in affiliated ball, and his out-of-options status meant he’d likely have bounced around the waiver wire even if he hit his way back onto a team’s 40-man roster.

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