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Yankees, Duane Underwood Jr. Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees are signing right-hander Duane Underwood Jr. to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty will receive an invite to major league Spring Training.

Underwood, 29, had a challenging year in 2023. He tossed 24 1/3 innings for the Pirates with a 5.18 earned run average. His 44% ground ball rate was solid but he struck out just 14% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11% clip. He also threw 20 innings in Triple-A with a 6.30 ERA. He was outrighted by the Pirates during the season and elected free agency in October.

Despite that rough season, the Yanks are likely intrigued based on the previous two campaigns. Over 2021 and 2022, Underwood threw 130 innings with a 4.36 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. He might have been unlucky in that time, with his .324 batting average on balls in play and 66.5% strand rate each falling on the unfortunate side of average. That’s why his 3.68 FIP in that stretch looks far nicer than his ERA.

Underwood will provide the Yanks with a bit of non-roster depth for the bullpen. If he is able to crack the roster at any point, he is out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent back down to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. His service time clock is currently between three and four years, meaning he could be retained for future seasons via arbitration if things go especially well in 2024.

Report: Angels Did Not Match Dodgers’ Offer For Ohtani

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The Dodgers recently signed Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700MM contract, though with heavy deferrals that make the net present value significantly less than that. He was reportedly discussing similar deals with clubs like the Giants and Blue Jays but Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Angels’ owner Arte Moreno did not want to match those offers.

As mentioned, the deal with the Dodgers is heavily deferred, with Ohtani set to make just $2MM annually during the course of the deal. He will then received $68MM per year for the 10 years after he has played the seasons covered by the contract. That brings down the net present value, with the league valuing it at just over $460MM while the MLBPA has it at $437,830,563. Farhan Zaidi, the president of baseball operations of the Giants, recently revealed that the club offered Ohtani essentially the same deal he accepted from the Dodgers. The Blue Jays were “right there,” according to a report from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

All reports indicated that Ohtani and his reps were driving a lot of the negotiations. It was apparently Ohtani’s idea to have such an unusual contract structure, which he proposed as it would allow the signing club more financial freedom in the short term to build a winning club around him. The Dodgers, Giants and Blue Jays were all seemingly willing to meet his ask in comparable ways, but he chose the Dodgers and their unparalleled track record of recent success.

The Angels, however, don’t appear to have been at the final table. Per the report from Harris, Ohtani’s agent Nez Balelo reached out to them towards the end of the process and gave them a chance to convince Ohtani to stay. But Moreno was reportedly unwilling to match the offer Ohtani eventually signed. “It’s a place that he really loved to play. He loved the people there, everything. So we didn’t want to miss the idea of giving them an opportunity,” Balelo said “But at the end, it just wasn’t going to work.”

As Harris points out, it’s not clear Ohtani would have seriously considered a return to Anaheim even if they were willing to match the asking price. But the fact that they were not willing to do so seems to eliminated any chances of a reunion. It’s unknown what kind of final offer the Angels did make.

Moreno has generally been unafraid to spend big on star players, giving big deals to players like Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon. It’s interesting that he decided to pull the reins on the Ohtani chase, though it’s unknown exactly why or how close they were.

The club will now have to enter a post-Ohtani world and try to chart a course forward without him. General manager Perry Minasian has made it clear that the club is not rebuilding and is not trading Trout. In 2023, they ran their payroll up against the competitive balance tax, ultimately staying narrowly beneath it. Roster Resource pegs their 2024 CBT number at $168MM at the moment, almost $70MM below next year’s base threshold. That should give them plenty of room to make some bold strikes, likely to upgrade the pitching staff. Despite having both Ohtani and Trout on the roster for the past six years, the Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015, made the playoffs since 2014 or won a postseason game since 2009.

Tigers, Freddy Pacheco Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have agreed to a new minor league deal with Freddy Pacheco, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Detroit had non-tendered the reliever in November.

Pacheco has yet to pitch in the major leagues. A former Cardinals prospect, he was added to St. Louis’ 40-man roster going into the 2022 season. The Cards put him on waivers a year later, at which point the Tigers stepped in to place a claim. His efforts to reach the majors had been halted by an elbow injury late in the winter. Pacheco unsuccessfully attempted to rehab before undergoing Tommy John surgery in early June.

The 25-year-old remains on the mend from that procedure. It cost him his 40-man spot, as the Tigers couldn’t keep him on the injured list over the offseason. He’ll stick in the organization with an eye towards a late-season return and potential MLB debut in 2024.

Before the injury, Pacheco showed interesting raw stuff in the minors. He can run his fastball into the upper 90s and punched out more than a third of opponents in 2022. The righty combined for a 3.05 ERA in 62 innings with the Cardinals’ top two affiliates that season.

Pirates Acquire Billy McKinney From Yankees

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The Pirates have acquired outfielder Billy McKinney from the Yankees in exchange for international bonus pool money, reports Jack Curry of Yes Network. As noted by Curry, McKinney just recently signed a minor league deal with the Yanks. That means he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and won’t take a roster spot with the Bucs.

It’s an unusual trade as McKinney, 29, just signed that deal with the Yankees last week. The former first-round pick and former top 100 prospect hasn’t been able to put it all together at the big league level. In 311 big league games dating back to his 2018 debut, he’s hit .209/.284/.390 for a wRC+ of 81.

He got into 48 contests for the Yankees this year, walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances but also striking out at a 26.5% rate. His .227/.320/.406 batting line amounted to a 101 wRC+, indicating he was right around league average overall, but the Yankees outrighted him off the roster at season’s end. He elected free agency and returned on a minor league deal but will now jump to the Pirates’ organization.

It’s possible that McKinney’s acquisition is related to the Pittsburgh catching situation. Prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both debuted in 2023, but Rodríguez got the majority of the catching duties as Davis spent most of his time in right field. The club has maintained that they still viewed Davis as a catcher and his path to doing so opened up when it was reported this week that Rodríguez will require UCL/flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2024 season.

If Davis isn’t an option for the outfield, then the Bucs will have an opening in right field, with Jack Suwinski in center and Bryan Reynolds in left. They have some options on the roster in Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe, Ji Hwan Bae and Canaan Smith-Njigba but McKinney will give them some non-roster depth.

In order to add that depth, they are sending some unknown amount of international bonus pool space to the Yankees. The current international signing period ends tomorrow, so it’s possible the Bucs had a bit of their pool left and weren’t going to use it, while the Yanks had someone in mind to spend it on. Most clubs spend large chunks of their pools right as the period opens, so the amount could be on the low side.

In the event McKinney gets a roster spot, he is out of options but has just over three years of service time. If he has his long-awaited breakout, the Bucs could keep him around beyond 2024 via arbitration.

Giants Sign Jung Hoo Lee To Six-Year Deal

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December 14: The Giants have officially announced the deal and provided the full salary breakdown. Lee will get a $5MM signing bonus then salaries of $7MM in 2024 $16MM the year after, $22MM in 2026-27 and $20.5MM in each of the final two years if he doesn’t opt out after the fourth.

December 12: The Giants and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee are in agreement on a six-year, $113MM deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There is an opt-out after four years. In addition to that guarantee, the Giants will owe a posting fee of $18.825MM to the Kiwoom Heroes. Lee is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Lee, 25, has been a highly anticipated free agent for a long time now. It was reported in January that the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization would post him for MLB clubs after the 2023 campaign. At that point, Lee was coming off an excellent 2022 campaign.

He had always had strong plate discipline but took that part of his game to new heights last year, walking in 10.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 5.1% of them. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season but managed to tally 23 in that season. He finished with a batting line of .349/.421/.575 for a wRC+ of 175, indicating he was 75 percent better than league average. He also won a Golden Glove award for a fifth straight year and also earned MVP honors.

But his platform year didn’t go quite according to plan. He hit .318/.406/.455 with just six homers in his 86 games in 2023. He injured his left ankle in late July, necessitating season-ending surgery. Nonetheless, he garnered plenty of interest from clubs like the Giants, Padres, Yankees and Mets before being officially posted last week.

The profile was somewhat similar to Masataka Yoshida, who was another contact-over-power player coming from overseas. Yoshida played in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball until signing with the Red Sox for 2023 on a five-year, $90MM deal. Since the NPB is generally considered a notch above the KBO, that could perhaps lead an observer to preferring his track record to Lee’s.

But there are a couple of reasons why Lee might be preferable, one of which is age. The ability to sign an everyday player who is just 25 years of age doesn’t occur very often, and the widespread interest in both Lee and Yoshinobu Yamamoto shows that clubs place value on that youth. Yoshida, by contract, was coming over for his age-29 season. Lee’s opt-out gives him the chance to potentially return to the open market before his 30th birthday, after perhaps having proven himself capable as a major leaguer.

The other thing Lee appears to have over Yoshida is defensive acumen. Yoshida was considered a left-field-only player before signing and was graded poorly for his glovework with Boston, which could lead to him spending more time as a designated hitter over the years. Lee, however, is considered strong in the field. Evaluators are split on whether or not he can stick in center, where he spent most of his time with the Heroes. In Major League Baseball, he could be either a passable center fielder or better suited to a corner, depending on who you ask.

All of the questions make Lee difficult to project and it seems fair to categorize this as a high-risk, high-reward play. As recently pointed out by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Lee’s batted ball metrics come in a bit below those of Ha-Seong Kim in his last KBO season. Kim struggled in his first MLB season, though eventually adjusted enough to be slightly above average at the plate in each of the past two seasons. MLBTR predicted that Lee would secure a five-year, $50MM deal, but the Giants have soared well past that, more than doubling it. Given their strong investment here, they likely have high confidence in Lee, both in his ability to hit major league pitching and perhaps stick in center field as well.

Just as the offseason was kicking off, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi stated that defensive upgrades in the outfield were a priority for this winter. “We’ll look to add a little bit more speed, a little bit more range to the outfield,” Zaidi said at that time. There were good reasons for such a target. The club’s outfielders posted a collective -13 Outs Above Average in 2023, with only the Cardinals and Rockies coming in below them. Their -7 Defensive Runs Saved and -12.4 Ultimate Zone Rating also fell in the bottom 10 league wide.

The Giants didn’t really have a full-time center fielder in 2023, as no player lined up there for more than 57 games. Each of Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Bryce Johnson, Brett Wisely and Wade Meckler got into double digits, while Tyler Fitzgerald, Cal Stevenson, Heliot Ramos, LaMonte Wade Jr. and AJ Pollock had brief stints there. The club is likely hoping that Lee can solidify that position while pushing Yastrzemski into the corner outfield mix alongside guys like Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Matos may wind up back in the minors after a mediocre MLB debut in 2023, or perhaps the club would consider putting him on the trading block.

In addition to the $113MM that Lee will receive, the Giants will also owe a posting fee to the Heroes. With any player posted for MLB clubs, the signing team owes a fee to the posting club, relative to the size of the contract. It’s 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For this deal, the Giants will owe $18.825MM to the Heroes on this deal, meaning they are actually shelling out $131.825MM in order to add Lee to the roster.

In recent years, the Giants have tried to sign star players and have come up just short. They were in the running for Aaron Judge last year before he returned to the Yankees. They had a deal in place with Carlos Correa before they balked at his physical and walked away, leading to him returning to the Twins. They were in the running for Shohei Ohtani this offseason before he signed with the Dodgers.

Lee doesn’t quite match up to those players in terms of star power but this is easily the largest investment of Zaidi’s tenure. The club gave a $90MM extension to Logan Webb but the biggest free agent deals in recent years were $44MM to Carlos Rodón and $43.5MM to Haniger. The Rodón deal had an opt-out after the first year that was eventually triggered, so the club didn’t even pay out that full contract.

The specific contract breakdown hasn’t been reported but that won’t be relevant for the competitive balance tax, which goes by the average annual value of a deal. Roster Resource has already plugged in Lee’s AAV and has the Giants’ CBT number at $189MM. It’s unknown if they are willing to cross the $237MM base threshold next year, but even if not, they could still have around $45MM to pursue upgrades elsewhere on the roster.

For the clubs that missed out on Lee, free agency still features capable center fielders like Cody Bellinger, Harrison Bader, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor, while the trade market could feature players like Dylan Carlson or Manuel Margot.

Dodgers, Rays Discussing Deal Involving Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot

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December 14: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports today that the two sides are still discussing a trade. He says that “word is” the Dodgers “may also be” interested in an extension. It’s unclear what level of interest Glasnow has in an extension.

December 13, 1:00pm: No trade between the two parties is imminent, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. While Harris also hears this framework is being discussed, he further reports that the Dodgers aren’t the only team in “serious” trade talks with the Rays regarding Glasnow.

11:50am: While Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has created some speculation by posting a picture of himself and Shohei Ohtani from the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Instagram, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Arozarena is not a part of the talks regarding Glasnow and Margot.

8:27am: The Dodgers and Rays are in talks on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, as first reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears the same, cautioning that the deal is not complete and changes to the framework remain possible.

The 30-year-old Glasnow has been one of the most highly rumored trade candidates of the offseason, due both to his considerable $25MM salary for the upcoming season and his proximity to free agency. He’s entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our early offseason list of the game’s Top 25 trade candidates.

Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a pronounced need for starting pitching and who won’t bat an eye at the Tampa Bay ace’s salary. As it stands, the rotation in Los Angeles consists of Pepiot, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan, with the fifth spot up in the air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are among the in-house options.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan have made more than 22 big league starts.

The Dodgers’ rotation has been ravaged by injuries in the past calendar year. Longtime ace and current free agent Clayton Kershaw may still re-sign with the club, but he had shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and is out until at least midsummer — if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor surgery just after the All-Star break.

While Glasnow is far from a paragon of durability, he’s unquestionably a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. Last year’s 120 innings were actually a career-high for the 6’8″ righty, and the 2023 season was only his second in which he reached even 100 frames at the MLB level. Glasnow did make a full slate of starts during the shortened 2020 season, but last year’s 21 trips to the mound were still a career-high. He’s spent considerable time in his big league career on the injured list owing to Tommy John surgery, a separate forearm strain and a severe oblique strain, among other maladies.

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Pirates, Glasnow was a longtime top prospect in Pittsburgh but never quite put things together for the Bucs, struggling in an up-and-down tenure before ultimately being traded to the Rays alongside Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in the lopsided trade that sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers, Glasnow broke out under the Rays’ pitching development and analytics program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA while punching out a whopping 34.1% of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. He’s typically worked with above-average ground ball rates and turned in a career-best 51.2% grounder mark this past season.

Margot, too, can become a free agent following the 2024 season — though the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout for the 2025 season. He’s set to earn $10MM in 2024, bringing the total guarantee remaining on his deal to $12MM.

The .264/.310/.376 batting line that the 29-year-old Margot posted in 336 plate appearances in 2023 was about seven percent below average, by measure of wRC+ (93), but it was also right in line with the larger .264/.317/.375 output he’s turned in during parts of four seasons with the Rays. Generally speaking, slightly below-average offense from Margot has been an acceptable trade-off for his sensational defense and solid value on the basepaths.

That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2023, however. Margot missed the majority of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his defensive grades in 2023 slipped closer to average. Statcast indicates that Margot’s range in the outfield and overall sprint speed both declined in ’23, which isn’t particularly surprising to hear for a player who was in his first  season back from a major knee injury. If he’s closer to his pre-injury form, he could return to his status as a plus all-around contributor, but there’s no certainty of that happening.

A healthy Margot would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Los Angeles re-signed Jason Heyward to handle the bulk of the time in right field — Mookie Betts has already been announced as their primary second baseman next year — but Heyward will be strictly platooned. Margot’s right-handed bat has produced a career .281/.341/.420 output against left-handed pitching. He’s a strong fit at the plate, and if his defense can rebound to prior levels, the Dodgers probably feel they wouldn’t be losing much defensive value in swapping out Heyward for Margot against left-handed pitching. Margot could also be a late-game defensive replacement for Chris Taylor in left, and he’s good insurance in center field, should James Outman sustain an injury at any point.

As for the players reportedly being targeted by Tampa Bay, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays typically covet: an MLB-ready player with five seasons of club control who can step directly onto the roster in place of a star-caliber player being traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old righty has started 10 games and made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers since his MLB debut in 2022, pitching to a sharp 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — albeit with some more concerning underlying numbers.

Pepiot’s 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is also higher than the league average and he’s been quite homer-prone (1.49 HR/9). He’s been fortunate that the majority of those long balls have come with the bases empty, but an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s susceptible to homers inherently carries some risk. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more bearish than Pepiot’s more rudimentary earned run average.

Pepiot works off a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, slider — sitting 94 mph with his heater and neutralizing lefties with a plus changeup. His slider has generated good results thus far in the big leagues, but scouting reports from his prospect days have characterized that offering as a bit below average, giving him the feel of a two-pitch righty who’s lacking a third solid offering. Pepiot doesn’t come with the same type of durability concerns as Glasnow, having pitched 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and never hitting the IL with a major arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed multiple months after opening the 2023 season on the shelf with a significant oblique strain.

Baseball America ranked Pepiot as high as the No. 55 prospect in the game earlier in 2023, noting that he’s improved upon that once below-average slider but done so at the expense of some of his changeup’s efficacy. Pepiot’s sub-par command also lends itself to deep counts and long innings, with BA’s scouting report noting that he often struggles to pitch beyond the fifth inning. That’s not a huge issue for either the Rays or the Dodgers; both clubs typically have deep bullpens and don’t shy away from five-and-dive starters who face a lineup only two times.

Pepiot is controllable for another five years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which surely adds to his appeal for the Rays. Swapping him out for Glasnow is probably a step down in terms of per-inning quality, but Pepiot would give them an option in 2025 and beyond, when the Rays will have Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all returning from major arm surgeries.

At the same time, swapping out Glasnow for a league-minimum starter (and perhaps shedding some or all of Margot’s remaining money) would give the Rays the necessary financial room to add free-agent starter (or trade acquisition with a mid-range salary) for the upcoming 2024 season. As it stands, the Rays have Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, former top prospect Taj Bradley (who struggled through his 2023 rookie showing) and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell in the projected rotation.

Not to be forgotten in all of this, the 25-year-old Deluca is coming off a solid debut effort of his own. He’s controllable for another six seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed bat who can play all three outfield spots — similar to the more established Margot. Deluca tallied just 45 plate appearances in last season’s MLB debut but posted a respectable .262/.311/.429 batting line in that time. He also turned in a combined .294/.390/.566 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.

It’s gaudy production, though scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs note that the former switch-hitter is still working to adjust to right-on-right scenarios and currently feels like more of a platoon option. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen grades Deluca as a below-average center fielder but solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball and track star with excellent athleticism who could at least profile as a matchup-based option across all three outfield spots, which is a skill set the Rays have utilized with great regularity in the past. He also has two minor league option years remaining, which only further enhances his appeal.

While it seems there are still some hurdles yet to be cleared, there’s some logic to the trade for both sides. The Dodgers would be swapping out a pair of controllable but unproven players for a high-end rotation upgrade and one or two years of an established right-handed platoon partner for Heyward — one who’s likely more capable of handling center field than the young outfielder with whom they’d be parting. Glasnow is an easy qualifying offer candidate next winter, so L.A. could receive some modest compensation if he departs. He’s also an L.A.-area native who’s signed one extension in the past, so the chance of a second multi-year deal to extend their control seems feasible.

The Rays, meanwhile, would turn two short-term assets into immediate MLB help that can be controlled all the way through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term 2024 help and possibly adding Pepiot to a 2025 rotation group including McClanahan, Baz, Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It’s the type of swap that both teams have been frequently willing to make — typically with good success, which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit via dramatically different methodologies).

Ken MacKenzie Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Ken MacKenzie has passed away at age 89, according to the Associated Press.

Born in Ontario, MacKenzie attended Yale. He signed with the Braves out of school in 1956. MacKenzie reached the big leagues with the franchise, at the time based in Milwaukee, in 1960. He pitched 15 1/3 innings over parts of two seasons before joining the expansion Mets in 1962.

MacKenzie logged a career-high 80 innings for the inaugural team in Queens, posting a 4.95 ERA. As the AP notes, his 5-4 record made him the only pitcher with an above-.500 mark for a team that ultimately went 40-120. MacKenzie was traded twice the following season, going to the Cardinals and Giants. He also saw some action with the Astros in 1965.

Over parts of six campaigns, the left-hander posted a 4.80 ERA across 208 1/3 innings. He struck out 142 hitters and picked up eight wins. After his playing career, he coached baseball and hockey at his alma mater throughout the 1970s. MLBTR sends our condolences to MacKenzie’s family, friends and former teammates.

Phillies Meeting With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Phillies officials are meeting with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto this afternoon, tweets John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Philadelphia joins the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox among the teams that has met or is scheduled to chat with the Japanese star.

Yamamoto’s camp has made the rounds this week. The 25-year-old has gotten attention from the majority of large-market franchises, particularly those on the coasts. Last week, Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested that seven teams had emerged as strong suitors for the 5’10” pitcher. With seven clubs known to have meetings scheduled with Yamamoto, it’s possible the field is essentially finalized. In a full column, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that there’s no indication the Cubs or Cardinals are planning to meet with Yamamoto.

Of the group that seems to remain in the mix, Philadelphia might have the longest odds. The Phils already made one major rotation splash this winter, retaining Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM pact. A starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is already strong. The Phils could certainly bump Sánchez back into relief to make way for Yamamoto, who is regarded as a likely top-of-the-rotation arm in the majors. Yet it’s possible teams like the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees will feel greater pressure to dish out a megadeal for rotation help.

Yamamoto is coming off a 1.21 ERA in 164 innings, arguably the best performance of an exceptional career in Japan. He has been named NPB’s best pitcher in each of the past three seasons. MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $225MM guarantee at the start of the offseason. In recent weeks, there’s been increasing speculation that a deal could approach or exceed $300MM. The signing team would owe a posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes on top of the guarantee to Yamamoto.

Roster Resource projects the Phillies payroll around $237MM for the upcoming season. That’s a little shy of the $243MM range that they carried to start this year. The Phils have roughly $252MM in luxury tax calculations, which puts them into the first tier of penalization and not far off the $257MM second threshold.

Reds Sign Austin Wynns To Major League Deal

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The Reds announced the signing of Austin Wynns to a major league contract. The Ball Players Agency client reportedly inked a split deal that pays $950K for time spent on the MLB roster and a $300K rate in the minors. To clear space on the 40-man roster, Cincinnati designated outfielder TJ Hopkins for assignment.

As was the case a season ago, the Reds are likely to carry three catchers on the MLB roster. Wynns joins Luke Maile as glove-first veterans to work alongside Tyler Stephenson, who seems set to log the majority of his time at designated hitter.

Wynns, 33, has appeared in the majors in five straight seasons. He spent his first few seasons with the Orioles before bouncing around over the last two years. Wynns played for a trio of NL West clubs in 2023, following brief stints in San Francisco and Los Angeles with a more extended run in Colorado.

The Rockies carried Wynns on the MLB roster from early May onwards. Originally claimed off waivers from the Dodgers, he operated as the backup to Elias Díaz. Wynns didn’t offer anything at the plate despite the hitter-friendly home park, turning in a .214/.273/.282 slash. He owns a .226/.273/.324 line across 653 big league plate appearances overall.

Wynns posted stronger results on the other side of the ball. Statcast graded him slightly positively as a pitch framer for the first time in his career. He cut down nearly 31% of opposing basestealers, well above last year’s 19.8% league average in a much more favorable environment for baserunners.

The Rockies nevertheless cut him loose at the end of the season as a result of his lack of offensive production. Wynns secures a 40-man roster spot in the short term, although the split contract suggests there’s a chance the Reds waive him at some point. Wynns is out of options, meaning Cincinnati can’t send him to Triple-A unless he first clears waivers.

As a player with between three and five years of MLB service, Wynns would have the ability to decline a minor league assignment but would forfeit any guaranteed money to do so. By guaranteeing a $300K salary for whatever time he spends on a minor league roster, the deal could incentivize Wynns to accept a stint in Triple-A if the Reds do run him through waivers at any point. If he remains in the majors all year, he’d be eligible for arbitration again next offseason.

For now, Wynns is on the roster. That necessitated a move which makes Hopkins available to other clubs. A ninth-round pick in 2019, Hopkins reached the big leagues in June. The South Carolina product didn’t see much action in his first MLB stint, tallying 44 plate appearances through 25 games. He hit .171/.227/.171 with 17 strikeouts and two walks.

The 26-year-old (27 next month) had a much better performance in Triple-A. Hopkins posted an excellent .308/.411/.514 slash with 16 homers over 393 trips to the plate in the International League. He walked a massive 14% clip against a slightly elevated 23.9% strikeout rate. Hopkins spent the majority of his time in the corner outfield after seeing scattered center field work early in his professional career.

Cincinnati has a week to trade him or place him on waivers. Between the strong upper minors production and pair of remaining option seasons, there’s a decent chance he changes organizations for the first time in his career.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com first reported the contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Sign Seth Lugo To Three-Year Deal

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The Royals announced the signing of right-hander Seth Lugo to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the 2025 season. It’s reportedly a $45MM guarantee for the Ballengee Group client. He’ll receive equal salaries of $15MM in each season, meaning he’ll collect $30MM before making the opt-out decision.

Lugo, 34, came up as a starter with the Mets but wound up spending most of his time as a reliever for that club. He reached free agency for the first time a year ago and was able to secure a gig with the Padres that allowed him to try his hand at starting again. It was a two-year, $15MM pact that allowed him opt out after the first year if his return to a rotation went well.

The move could hardly have gone much better. Lugo’s arm held up under the new workload conditions, as he made just one trip to the injured list all year, missing about a month due to a left calf strain. He took the ball 26 times and logged 146 1/3 innings with an earned run average of 3.57. He struck out 23.2% of batters he faced, walked just 6% and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. That made his opt-out decision an easy one, as he left $7.5MM on the table and returned to the open market, with MLBTR predicting he could secure a three-year, $42MM deal this offseason.

Starting pitching has reportedly been in high demand this winter but Lugo’s market was never going to go too crazy due to his age. But given that he would be limited to a relatively modest deal, he was a plausible fit with far more clubs than the top names. Last month, it was reported by Robert Murray of FanSided that “more than half the league” was interested. The Tigers, Dodgers and Red Sox were some of the specific clubs named with interest in his services, but so were the Royals.

Starting pitching has been an ongoing issue in Kansas City for a few years now, with their plans for a homegrown pitching staff largely falling short of expectations. In 2018, the club had five picks in the first 58 selections of the draft and used all of those on pitchers: Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch IV, Kris Bubic and Jonathan Bowlan. None of those picks looks amazing at the moment.

Singer looked to break out in 2022 when he posted an ERA of 3.23 but that jumped to 5.52 this year. Kowar has been rocked for an ERA of 9.12 in his first 74 innings and was traded away this offseason. Lynch has a 5.18 ERA through his first 252 MLB innings. Bubic hasn’t been great for most of his career. He showed some encouraging signs of development at the start of 2023 before requiring Tommy John surgery after just three starts. Bowlan has just three major league innings but his minor league ERA has been just under 6.00 in the past two seasons.

The struggles of those drafted players, as well as from free agent signee Jordan Lyles, led to the club’s starters posting a collective ERA of 5.12 in 2023. Only the Reds, Athletics and Rockies were worse. General manager J.J. Picollo clearly stated that adding starting pitching was a goal this offseason and that the club should have about $30MM to spend on upgrading the 2024 club. This deal will accomplish the goal of adding to the rotation while using half of the available funds. For Lugo, he obviously made some wise decisions, both in returning to the rotation and returning to the open market this winter.

One bright spot in the club’s rotation last year was the breakout of Cole Ragans. After being acquired from the Rangers in the deadline deal that sent Aroldis Chapman the other way, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts for his new club. He and Lugo should be atop the club’s rotation next year. Singer should be in there as well, looking to bounce back into something closer to his 2022 form. Lyles is in a comparable position, having registered a 4.42 ERA in 2022 but a 6.28 in the most recent season. He’s still owed $8.5MM and hasn’t been on the injured list since 2019 so he will probably get another opportunity to eat some innings. Pitchers like Lynch, Alec Marsh, Ángel Zerpa and others could be options for the back end but the club could also look for more external additions as the offseason continues.

As mentioned, Picollo used $30MM as a ballpark figure for available funds. The club also agreed to a deal with reliever Chris Stratton today, which comes with a $4MM guarantee, and a $5MM deal with Will Smith on the weekend. When combined with Lugo’s $15MM salary next year, that’s $24MM agreed to in the past few days.

Anne Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were nearing agreement on a deal. Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the three-year term and Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $45MM guarantee. Feinsand first reported on the opt-out while Robert Murray of FanSided relayed the even distribution of the money.

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