Andrew McCutchen Plans To Play In 2024, Wants To Remain With Pirates
Andrew McCutchen‘s return to Pittsburgh has thus far been a dream. While the Bucs’ hot start has normalized to a more modest 26-25 record, it still represents a clear step up from the rebuilding and losing baseball of the previous seven seasons, and McCutchen has been a big part of that resurgence. In addition to his expected clubhouse mentorship of the young Pirates team, McCutchen is also having a return to form on the field, hitting .269/.364/.462 with eight homers through his first 184 plate appearances.
After signing a one-year, $5MM deal last winter, McCutchen will be a free agent again this offseason, but he made it clear to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he isn’t viewing 2023 as a farewell tour.
“Tom Brady said he would stop playing when he [stunk]. I don’t want to put it in the same context, but when my body tells me I’ve had enough, then I’ve had enough,” said McCutchen, who turns 37 in October. “My body is still saying, ‘Nah, you’re good. You’re fine.’ ”
Obviously quite a bit can still happen with over four months remaining in the season, but on the surface, McCutchen’s comeback year doesn’t look like a fluke. McCutchen’s BABIP is only .301, his wOBA/xwOBA are almost identical, and most of his other Statcast numbers are above average, including a 43.8% hard-hit ball rate that ranks as his highest since 2015. The right-handed hitter is also posting roughly similar numbers against both lefties and righties, after a dropoff against right-handed pitching contributed heavily to McCutchen’s borderline average numbers from 2020-22.
After playing with the Giants, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers from 2018-22, McCutchen has regained some stability in returning to Pittsburgh, and as a result he naturally wants to remain with the Pirates in the future.
“As long as things continue to be the way that they are, I’m going to continue to keep going,” McCutchen said. “I want to do it here. I don’t want to do it anywhere else. I don’t want to continue my career on another team…..That ballpark gives me a different boost or jolt of energy that I didn’t really have. I don’t know if it’s familiarity or the comfortability of being in Pittsburgh once again. The surroundings, the vibe when you’re on the field, I didn’t have that anywhere else. It’s good to be able to feel all those things again.”
McCutchen and the Pirates have yet to discuss an extension, though as Mackey notes, a new contract “shouldn’t be much more than a formality” considering how openly McCutchen wants to stay put. From the Pirates’ viewpoint, it’s easy to imagine that the Bucs would want to retain a franchise icon who has continued to be such a productive player.
Pirates Designate Duane Underwood Jr. For Assignment
According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates have designated right-hander Duane Underwood Jr. for assignment. The move clears a spot on the active roster for right-hander Vince Velasquez, who is being activated from the 15-day IL to start this afternoon’s game against the Mariners.
Underwood was a second-round draft pick by the Cubs in the 2012 draft and made his MLB debut with the club in 2018. He would ultimately pitch in Chicago for parts of three seasons, posting a 5.20 ERA and 4.85 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work before being designated for assignment ahead of the 2021 season. The Pirates promptly acquired the righty in exchange for minor league first baseman Shendrik Apostel and installed him in their bullpen, where he has remained ever since.
In three seasons with the Pirates, Underwood has posted a 4.49 ERA that clocks in at 5% below league average by measure of ERA+, with a solid 3.90 FIP, a 20% strikeout rate, and a 9.3% walk rate. Those results have taken a turn for the worse this season, however, as Underwood has posted a 5.10 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 24 1/3 innings of work. Under the hood, Underwood’s strikeout rate has dropped from 22% last season to just 14% so far int he 2023 campaign, while his walk rate has climbed to a near-matching 11%. With nearly as many walks as strikeouts so far this season, it’s hardly surprising that the Pirates have made the decision to pull the plug on the 28-year-old righty.
The Pirates will have one week to either trade Underwood or put him through waivers. With three years of service time, Underwood has the right to reject an outright assignment, though doing so would forfeit his $1.025MM contract.
As for Velasquez, the veteran right-hander, who celebrates his 31st birthday two weeks from today, posted solid results for the Pirates in seven starts prior to being placed on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation earlier this month. Velasquez sports a 3.05 ERA in 35 1/3 innings this season, though his 82.4% strand rate leaves reason to believe regression could be in the righty’s future.
Miguel Andujar Accepts Outright Assignment From Pirates
May 23: As expected, Andujar has once again accepted his outright assignment, per Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
May 22: The Pirates have outrighted outfielder Miguel Andujar to Triple-A Indianapolis, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That suggests he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week.
It’s hardly a shock that Andujar, 28, didn’t get scooped up by one of the 29 other clubs off waivers. He hit just .161/.212/.387 in his 33 plate appearances since having his contract selected at the end of April. He had already passed through waivers in January and that mediocre performance didn’t do much to increase his stock around the league, though he did hit a much stronger .284/.364/.500 in Triple-A prior to getting called up.
The peak of his career so far came with the Yankees back in 2018 when he hit 27 home runs and slashed .297/.328/.527, leading to a second-place finish in American League Rookie of the Year voting behind Shohei Ohtani. But shoulder surgery wiped out much of his 2019 and he found his third base position staffed by players like DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela when he returned, pushing him to a depth role and a move to the outfield. Since then, he continually mashes in the minors but struggles when given another chance in the majors. Going back to the start of 2020, he’s hit .291/.346/.508 on the farm but just .237/.268/.354 in the show.
Andujar technically has the right to reject this outright assignment and elect free agency, both because he has more than three years of service time and a previous outright. However, he lacks the five years of service required to reject it while retaining his salary. He’s making $1.525MM for the season, which likely led to him going unclaimed both times he was on waivers and him accepting the outright assignment the first time. It seems likely he will accept the outright a second time and stick with in the Pirates’ organization, trying to work his way back to the majors yet again.
Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis
Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701
Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.
To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.
Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709
I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.
Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426
Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.
The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.
Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA
A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.
Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631
Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.
Three More
Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.
Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).
Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.
Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
Pirates Designate Miguel Andujar For Assignment
The Pirates announced that they have activated left-hander Rob Zastryzny from the injured list, with outfielder Miguel Andujar designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Andujar, 28, was selected to the club’s roster three weeks ago but has hit just .161/.212/.387 in his 33 plate appearances since then. He had earned that call-up with a .284/.364/.500 showing in Triple-A but wasn’t able to bring any of that production up to the big leagues with him.
It’s yet another unfortunate development in Andujar’s career, one that seemed so promising a few years ago. He hit .297/.328/.527 for the Yankees in 2018, finishing second to Shohei Ohtani in Rookie of the Year voting. Unfortunately, he required season-ending shoulder surgery after just 12 games in 2019 and hasn’t seemed the same since. Once he returned to health in 2020, the Yankees had filled his third base position with players like DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, which squeezed him out of regular playing time. Over the past few years, he’s continued to hit well in Triple-A but struggled whenever given another shot at the majors. Going back to the start of 2020, he’s hit .291/.346/.508 in the minors but just .237/.268/.354 in the big leagues.
The Bucs will now have a week to either trade Andujar or pass him through waivers. He’s making a salary of $1.525MM this year, which could factor into how this plays out. While some teams might be intrigued by his past success and Triple-A numbers, they would have to be willing to take on that money. Andujar was passed through waivers in January without anyone putting in a claim. He would have had the right to reject an outright assignment at that time but would have had to forfeit that money and ultimately accepted, which could be the same script that is followed in the coming days.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Cardinals’ Contreras U-Turn, Mitch Keller’s Breakout, The Padres
Episode 7 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- The Cardinals’ U-turn on having Willson Contreras catch (4:22)
- Mitch Keller‘s breakout season with the Pirates, and whether he can be their ace moving forward (10:32)
- When can Reds fans expect to see Elly De La Cruz in the big leagues? (17:09)
- Eduardo Rodriguez‘ form for the Tigers, and whether Detroit can contend this season (20:56)
- The Padres’ slow start to the season (25:34)
Check out our past episodes!
- Willson Contreras, the Rays’ success, what’s happening with the Astros – listen here
- White Sox trade candidates, Red Sox options for improvements, managers on the hot seat – listen here
- The state of the Twins, Bryan Reynolds’ extension and Madison Bumgarner’s future – listen here
Pirates Discussing Contract Extension With Mitch Keller
The Pirates and representatives for right-hander Mitch Keller have been in talks about a contract extension, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. There isn’t any sense whether or not the two sides are particularly close to an agreement, though Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested last month that the club was looking to extend more core players now that Bryan Reynolds had completed his own long-term deal.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Keller as a logical extension candidate at the time, and he further described Keller’s breakout over the last two seasons in a recent piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Since cutting back on the usage of his four-seam fastball in 2021, Keller has blossomed, with Steve observing that “fast forward to 2023, and Keller’s pitch arsenal is even more diverse thanks to a revamped cutter. He’s throwing his four-seamer, sinker and cutter all at a 21-24% clip, mixing in a sweeper and curve that he uses about equally…It’s a much different arsenal than in 2021, when Keller was throwing 57% four-seamers, 24% cutters, 14% curveballs and mixing in a show-me changeup.”
It wasn’t like Keller’s emergence came out of nowhere, as he was a second-round pick in the 2014 draft and a regular on top-50 prospect lists during his climb up Pittsburgh’s minor league ladder. His first few shots at the majors didn’t go well, however, as Keller posted a 6.02 ERA over 170 1/3 innings from 2019-21.
After a promising step forward in 2022, Keller has now looked more like a front-of-the-rotation arm during his excellent start to the 2023 campaign. Today’s outing against the Orioles was the latest example, as Keller allowed just four hits and no walks while recording 13 strikeouts over seven shutout innings. This gem improved Keller’s ERA to 2.38 over 56 2/3 IP, and just about all of his Statcast numbers are well above the league average.
Keller just turned 27 last month, and he is earning $2,437,500 this season in his first of three arbitration-eligible years. This means Keller will be entering his age-30 season when he enters free agency during the 2025-26 offseason, unless the Pirates lock him up beforehand on an extension.
Keller’s agents at Tidal Sports Group might logically point to Logan Webb‘s recent five-year, $90MM extension with the Giants as a comp for a potential deal for their client. Webb is seven months younger than Keller, but the two have comparable big league service times and somewhat similar resumes as pitchers who went through a rough beginning to their MLB careers before posting consecutive quality seasons.
Of course, Webb had fully completed his second good year at the time of his extension while Keller only really started to pitch well midway through the 2022 campaign and his 2023 success does represent only nine starts. That said, Keller’s price tag is only rising as he continues to post great results, so he could choose to bet on himself and wait until after the season to pursue an extension.
The fact that the perennially low-payroll Pirates are even engaged in long-term contract talks represents a turning point for the club, as while a brutal slump in May has curbed the enthusiasm of the team’s 20-9 start to the season, Pittsburgh still has a 22-19 record. The Bucs have just one winning record in the previous seven seasons, as the team’s previous contending roster ran out of steam, and the club then engaged in a lengthy rebuilding process.
The early results have indicated that the Pirates’ rebuild may be wrapping up, and to that end, Nutting has authorized the two biggest contracts in franchise history. While still smaller than the priciest contracts of most other teams around the majors, the Pirates signed Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM extension in April 2022, and then extended Reynolds with seven years and $100MM of new money last month. The Pirates aren’t likely to ever become truly big spenders, yet locking up certain cornerstone talents is a proven method for smaller-market teams to gain some cost certainty over premium talent.
Pirates Outright Chase De Jong
Pirates reliever Chase De Jong has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Indianapolis, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. He’s gone unclaimed on waivers multiple times in his career, giving him the right to elect minor league free agency.
De Jong has spent parts of three seasons with Pittsburgh. He started nine games with middling results in 2021 but found more success upon moving to the bullpen last year. De Jong threw 71 2/3 innings over 42 appearances for the Bucs, compiling a 2.64 ERA. It was mostly low-leverage work and De Jong’s peripherals weren’t aligned with his strong run prevention.
The right-hander struck out a below-average 20.1% of batters faced while walking 10.2% of opponents. De Jong’s run prevention and ability to work multiple innings nevertheless secured his 40-man roster spot throughout the winter. The Bucs kept the out-of-options De Jong in their season-opening bullpen, but he lost his roster spot with a slow start. Through 9 1/3 frames, he’s allowed 11 runs on 13 hits and five walks. De Jong’s swinging strike rate fell from a serviceable 10.5% rate to a modest 5.2% clip.
De Jong will now decide whether to report to Indianapolis or scour the market for other opportunities. He’d likely be limited to minor league offers as a free agent but could look elsewhere for clearer paths back to the MLB roster and/or a potential opt-out date in a non-roster contract. De Jong has pitched parts of seven seasons in Triple-A, working to a 5.59 ERA with a 19.3% strikeout percentage over 211 innings.
Pirates, Ryan Borucki Agree To Minor League Deal
The Pirates and left-hander Ryan Borucki have agreed to a minor league deal, per the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. Borucki elected free agency earlier in the week after the Cubs passed him through waivers unclaimed.
Borucki, 29, has logged big league time in each of the past five seasons — the vast majority coming as a member of the Blue Jays. He posted a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts as a rookie back in 2018 but has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen since, due in large part to elbow surgery that wiped out most of his 2019 season. Since returning, the left-hander has posted a 4.66 ERA in 65 2/3 big league innings, fanning 22.3% of his opponents against a 12% walk rate.
Borucki opened the 2023 season with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, where he was roughed up for a dozen runs on 13 hits and six walks with 11 strikeouts in nine innings. In need of a fresh arm for the bullpen, the Cubs selected Borucki’s contract in late April, but he was designated for assignment before even getting into a game.
It’s been a tough few years for Borucki, but even when struggling to a 5.68 ERA in 25 1/3 innings between Toronto and Seattle in 2022, the southpaw averaged 95.1 mph on his sinker and posted a strong 12% swinging-strike rate. He’s moved away from his changeup and begun to rely primarily on his sinker and slider over the past two seasons, which has helped him up his ground-ball rate to a hefty 54.3% in that time.
The Bucs currently have lefty relievers Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny on the injured list. Garcia, notably, is on the 60-day and does not have a timetable for his return. Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez has been the only left-handed option in manager Derek Shelton’s bullpen for the past couple weeks. Borucki won’t immediately be added to the mix, but he gives the Pirates an experienced option to take a look at in Triple-A.