A Closer Look At The Red Sox And The Luxury Tax
The Red Sox’ bullpen — or, really, its lack of fortification this offseason — has garnered plenty of recent attention. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has not only downplayed the possibility of a reunion with Craig Kimbrel but also the addition of any notable arm. While Dombrowski has stated that there’s no mandate to remain south of the top luxury tax border, it also seems increasingly likely (if not apparent) that that’s exactly what the team is planning to do. Most onlookers have at least a cursory awareness of what that entails, but I felt it worth a deeper look to see exactly what the Sox are deeming the theoretical breaking point — if they are indeed set on avoiding that barrier.
This isn’t necessarily a call for the Red Sox to spend more, to be clear. Boston is poised to carry Major League Baseball’s highest payroll for the second consecutive season and stomached the hit when they incurred top-level luxury penalization last year. This offseason, ownership green-lit a $68MM expenditure on Nathan Eovaldi and another $6.25MM on Steve Pearce. The Sox have hardly refused to spend. Every team, though, has its limit, and at the very least Boston seems close to that point.
At present, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has the Red Sox with a 2019 payroll of $238,373,928. That’s how much money they’ll pay out to players — those on the roster and those either no longer on the 40-man (Rusney Castillo) or no longer even in the organization (Pablo Sandoval).
For the purposes of the luxury tax (labeled as the Competitive Balance Tax in baseball’s collective bargaining agreement), however, payroll is calculated by the average annual value of the contracts for which a team is responsible (in addition to a set level of player benefit costs, which include medical costs, moving/travel expenses, etc.). Jason has Boston’s luxury tax payroll (“actual” payroll, as termed in the CBA) projected at $241,269,197. Those numbers, both the 2019 payroll and the “actual” payroll, are estimates and aren’t exact, but they’re both close approximations that provide a reasonably accurate depiction of what the organization’s expenses currently entail. Before delving further into what additional spending would mean for the Red Sox, it’s important to note what those numbers mean for the team’s current taxation penalties.
For the 2019 season, the luxury tax line has been set at $206MM. Even without re-signing Eovaldi and Pearce, the Sox were always going to be well north of that line. The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that a second-time offender — the Red Sox were over the luxury line in 2018 but stayed shy of it in 2017 — will pay a 30 percent tax on the first $20MM over the initial luxury line. Teams are subject to an additional 12 percent tax on the next $20MM spent. If a team crosses the luxury limit by more than $40MM, it will pay an additional 45 percent tax from that point forward and also see its top pick in the next year’s draft dropped by 10 spots. Put otherwise:
- $206MM to $226MM: 30 percent tax (a total of $6MM)
- $226MM to $246MM: 42 percent tax (a total of $8.4MM)
- $246M or more: 75 percent tax and a loss of 10 spots in the following year’s draft
Using Jason’s figures above, the Red Sox are paying the full $6MM of that first level and are $15,269,197 into the second level of tax penalization. That sum is taxed at a 42 percent rate, meaning the Sox are paying a $6,413,063 tax on it. At present, then, the Red Sox are committed to paying about $12.413MM worth of luxury tax penalties. There’s a $4,730,803 gap between their current projection and the $246MM top luxury line. If they were to, theoretically, add another reliever for a dollar less in order to avoid top-level penalization, the Red Sox would be taxed an additional $1,986,937. Of course, that’d leave them unable to make a single in-season addition should the need arise.
That, however, is the gripe for many critics. A bullpen headlined by Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, Tyler Thornburg and Brian Johnson seems quite likely to necessitate trade-deadline augmentation — and that’s before even allowing for the possibility of an injury to a key player that would also require a trade acquisition. It’s not only possible that the Red Sox will have crossed the top luxury line by the time the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline has passed — it seems downright likely. Perhaps the plan is to find trade acquisitions whose salaries can be largely paid down by their current team, but doing so would require paying up a greater premium in terms of prospects and thus weaken an already thin farm system.
Should paying more in terms of prospects be preferable to lessening the 2020 draft budget? Some might argue that it’s preferable to go ahead and commit to taking the draft hit in order to gain the advantages of a bolstered bullpen from the start of the season. After all, the division is hardly a shoo-in and the Sox obviously have designs at chasing an elusive repeat title. But what does that actually mean from a financial standpoint?
For the sake of argument, let’s take a look at what the Red Sox would have to pay in order to sign Kimbrel at the four-year, $70MM term projected by MLBTR in our Top 50 Free Agent Predictions back in November. In trying to peg Kimbrel’s eventual contract, Tim Dierkes, Jeff Todd and I all felt that Kimbrel would seek to top Aroldis Chapman‘s record guarantee (which he reportedly has indeed pursued) but ultimately fall shy and instead, ahem, “settle” for breaking Wade Davis‘ $17.33MM annual salary record for a reliever over a four-year term. Kimbrel may very well fall shy of our $70MM prediction, but he could still set a new AAV standard with a three-year, $52.5MM deal. Even a one-year deal at the $17.5MM level would come with the same CBT hit for 2019. For purposes of this hypothetical, that seems a reasonable figure to work with.
If the Sox were to pay Kimbrel a $17.5MM annual salary, the first $4,703,803 of that salary would close the gap between Boston’s current “actual” payroll and the $246MM threshold. As noted above, that’d come with a $1,986,937 luxury hit, coming to a total of $6,690,740. The remaining $12,769,197 would come with a hefty tax of $9,576,898. That’s a total of $11.564MM just in taxes before considering the money the team would actually owe to Kimbrel himself.
Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing. (A multi-year deal, of course, might have greater or lesser salaries in its various seasons, though that’s all averaged for the CBT.) Frankly, even beyond any concerns about lengthy commitment to a not-so-youthful reliever, it’s pretty clear to see why the Sox don’t have much interest in retaining Kimbrel unless his price tag craters (at which point a plethora of other teams would join the bidding). Though the total luxury tax bill would still not make up an enormous amount of the team’s total payroll-related spending, it would perhaps turn a Kimbrel signing from a hefty investment to an eye-popping splurge.
That math is also informative when examining why the Sox have passed over other top-end relievers. For instance, beating the Yankees’ three-year, $27MM offer to Adam Ottavino by a margin of $500K annually would’ve still been costly for Boston. As with any contract, the first $4,703,803 of the deal would’ve been taxed at $1,986,937. The remaining $4,796,197 would come with a $3,597,148. In total, signing Ottavino at a $9.5MM annual salary would effectively cost $15.084MM in 2019.
Boiled down, any relief addition for the Red Sox with an annual salary north of the $4,703,803 gap that exists between their current “actual” payroll and the $246MM luxury line could be viewed as such (where X = the average annual value of a new contract):
(X – 4,703,803) + (X – 4,703,803)*0.75 + 6,690,740 = Total 2019 expenditure
All of that, of course, is before even acknowledging the 10-spot drop they’d face in the draft for a second consecutive season. There’s no way of knowing precisely how much the Sox would be costing themselves in the 2020 draft, or even how much they stand to lose in the 2019 draft after crossing the top level last year, as 2019 slot values aren’t yet known. However, dropping from No. 30 in 2018 to No. 40 (the drop they’re facing this year) would have resulted in a loss of $489,500 in the team’s draft pool. Draft slot values increase incrementally each season, and the Red Sox’ exact placement in the draft order obviously can’t be known. But generally speaking, the Sox would be looking at a 10-spot drop and a loss of at least $500K in their 2020 draft pool.
Clearly, the price to add a reliever of any significance will be steep for Boston — possibly more so than most would expect before truly diving into the math behind further additions. That said, it’s still worth questioning the Red Sox’ decision to draw a line in the sand at this juncture. The current state of the ‘pen makes it seem likely that Boston will need to add a reliever during the season anyhow, and that could still put the team over the limit while also costing prospects.
Beyond that, this it’s quite likely that this is the last time Boston will ever enjoy the Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez all on the same roster. Sale and Bogaerts are free agents after the 2019 season, and Martinez has an opt-out provision that he’ll presumably exercise if he produces anywhere near his 2018 levels. Add in the fact that Mookie Betts can become a free agent after the 2020 season — though the Sox surely hope to extend their franchise player — and there’s all the more urgency for Boston to go all out in its pursuit of another championship.
Further spending truly doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Boston, though perhaps they’ll be able to secure one of the market’s remaining relievers at a modest $2-3MM commitment that’d still allow them to avoid the top line. But the Sox look like they’re genuinely poised to enter the season with a glaring weakness — one that’ll be tough to account for during the season. While the staggering level of taxation they’d have had to pay on another notable ‘pen arm (or two) makes their reluctance understandable, that’ll still be a tough sell to fans if the current group of relievers doesn’t exceed expectations in dramatic fashion. It’s an illustration of the potency of the current luxury tax rules — though, of course, the payrolls of virtually every other team in baseball presently reside comfortably out of range of this level of penalties.
Red Sox To Sign Dan Runzler
The Red Sox have added reliever Dan Runzler on a minors deal, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). It isn’t yet known whether he’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp.
A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level.
Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.
Boston fans clamoring for some bullpen help likely won’t be appeased by this addition, any more than they were by the club’s prior winter moves. Runzler joins Colten Brewer, Zach Putnam, and Jenrry Mejia as low-risk relief candidates that have been brought on board this winter.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Bleier, Gurriel, Rays
The Red Sox have been surprisingly silent on the bullpen market this winter despite the fact that Joe Kelly has left for the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned — seemingly likely to land with another organization as well, based on comments from Boston president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), however, that the Sox are confident in a number of internal options. Recent draftees Travis Lakins (sixth round, 2015) and Durbin Feltman (third round, 2018) could both emerge at the MLB level in 2019, while many in the Red Sox’ analytics department are intrigued by trade pickup Colten Brewer (whom the Sox tried to acquire last summer as well, Olney notes). Tyler Thornburg represents a notable bounceback option, as well. It’s nonetheless jarring to see the Sox take a passive approach to rounding out the ‘pen on the heels of a World Series championship. Perhaps there’s yet another move in store with several relievers still available (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), but it seems likely that the Boston ‘pen will have to prove its share of naysayers wrong in 2019.
Here’s more from the division…
- Orioles southpaw Richard Bleier tells Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com that he believes he’ll be ready to roll for the start of the 2019 season. That’s great news for the O’s, as Bleier had been a revelatory hurler before suffering a major injury to his lat. Already 31 years of age, Bleier certainly qualifies as a late bloomer. He’s also an outlier, having now made it through 119 MLB innings with a sub-2.00 ERA despite averaging just 4.1 strikeouts per nine. A big 63.3% groundball rate and low 1.6 BB/9 walk rate go a long way toward explaining the results. Before he can get back to disproving those who question the sustainability of that success, Bleier will need to show he’s back to full health. For the O’s, it would help quite a bit if he can do so. After all, Bleier could be quite a nice trade asset this summer or in the winter to come, especially since he’s still shy of reaching arbitration eligibility.
- The Blue Jays‘ signing of Freddy Galvis this week was tied to the club’s uncertainty about the glovework of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. As Davidi explores at length, the Jays are wary of poor infield defense at a time when they’re developing numerous young pitchers and when rotation holdovers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are heavy ground-ball pitchers. Gurriel has more offensive upside than Galvis but could be squeezed for playing time with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Drury and Devon Travis all still factoring into the infield mix. There have been suggestions that Gurriel could land in the outfield eventually, but as Davidi outlines, that already crowded mix is further muddied with the now-out-of-options Dalton Pompey surprisingly still on the roster. It’s a comprehensive look at a crowded roster, though surely injuries and Spring Training roster moves could eventually impact how things play out. It’s also worth noting that Gurriel still has a minor league option remaining.
- Juan Toribio of MLB.com tackles a number of questions on the Rays‘ roster in his latest Inbox column, highlighting several battles for Opening Day roster spots while also writing that the Rays look unlikely to add another free-agent reliever this offseason. That, he notes, could open the door for Triple-A standout Colin Poche to crack the big league roster either out of camp or early in the season. The Rays, as Toribio notes, are rife with infield depth both on the 25-man roster and in the upper minors but are also cognizant that their projected group of 2019 infielders is lacking experience. So while players such as Christian Arroyo and Kean Wong don’t have clear paths to the Majors at the moment, Tampa Bay is likely to hang onto its depth. Arroyo, once a top prospect with the Giants and the key player received in last winter’s Evan Longoria trade, struggled through a lost season in 2018 and still has a minor league option remaining.
Red Sox To Sign Jenrry Mejia
The Red Sox have inked a minor-league deal with former MLB reliever Jenrry Mejia, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). He’ll head to Spring Training (though not MLB camp, Heyman notes) in search of a comeback from a lengthy absence — one that was occasioned by his own incredibly poor decisionmaking. The contract would pay him $625K in the Majors, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.
Mejia, of course, was once a key late-inning reliever for the Mets. That all changed when he was mind-numbingly popped for PED-related violations on three occasions, leading to a lifetime ban. While commissioner Rob Manfred ultimately lifted that prohibition, Mejia is now long removed from his big league career. The 29-year-old last appeared on the MLB mound in the middle of the 2015 season.
Before he cost himself a major chunk of his prime, Mejia had shown some interesting abilities on the bump. After failing to exhibit quite enough as a starter to earn a full chance in the New York rotation, he slid comfortably into the team’s bullpen in 2014. Over 56 1/3 relief innings that year, he worked to a 2.72 ERA with a 60:21 K/BB ratio. Mejia ultimately took the closer’s job, locking down 28 games.
Just what’s left in the tank isn’t known, but the Red Sox will take a shot on the talent of the enigmatic right-hander. That the defending World Series champs have now added Mejia while otherwise waiting out the relief market is sure to draw some curious glances, from both fans who’d like to see more additions and from those on the players side that believe teams need to be spending more money. Obviously, this sort of move will not itself preclude the Boston powerhouse from making further acquisitions, but the timing certainly creates some interesting juxtapositions.
Cuban Shortstop Yolbert Sanchez Cleared To Sign With MLB Teams
Shortstop Yolbert Sanchez has left Cuba and has been cleared by Major League Baseball to sign with teams beginning on Feb. 5, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs report. The 21-year-old (22 in March) will be subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system.
Sanchez’s stats in his limited professional experience won’t wow anyone — he’s a .297/.338/.345 hitter in 435 plate appearances — but McDaniel and Longenhagen nonetheless paint him as a likely seven-figure bonus recipient due to his raw speed, glovework at shortstop and arm strength — each of which are considered by scouts to be anywhere from above average to plus. Their report notes that scouts view him as the type of prospect who’ll typically command a bonus between $2-4MM.
Certainly, that bodes well for the Orioles, who still have upwards of $6MM in their international bonus pool after whiffing on prospects Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr. and Sandy Gaston when the trio signed early in the 2018-19 offseason (the Mesa brothers with the Marlins; Gaston with the Rays).
Of course, the mere fact that the Orioles presently have the most money at their disposal doesn’t by any means make Baltimore a lock to sign Sanchez. The O’s, after all, had the ability to make larger offers to the Mesa brothers and Gaston but did not ultimately ink any of the trio. It’s also possible that they don’t view Sanchez as a prospect who should command such an investment — or at least that they don’t like him to the same extent as another organization with millions remaining in its bonus pool. Beyond that, Sanchez could technically opt to wait until July 2 to sign, at which point bonus pools would reset and present him with a vastly larger list of suitors.
While Baltimore is the runaway leader in remaining pool space, McDaniel and Longenhagen write that the Dodgers, Cubs and Phillies are among the teams with the most resources remaining. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez adds the Cardinals to the mix, noting that St. Louis has an estimated $1.85MM remaining in its pool. Sanchez pegs the Dodgers at about $1.4MM, the Phillies at roughly $1MM and the Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox in the $750-800K range. Sanchez will hold workouts for teams later this week in the Dominican Republic, per Fangraphs’ report.
AL East Notes: Sanchez, Thornburg, Orioles
It has been a confounding few years for Blue Jays righty Aaron Sanchez, who has seen his promising career sidetracked by a series of finger problems. Of course, at just 26 years of age, there’s still every chance he can regain his trajectory — so long, that is, if he’s able to get back to full health. As John Lott of The Athletic examines (subscription required), Sanchez is preparing for Spring Training with ample optimism after undergoing surgery on his right index finger last fall. He first threw earlier this month but says he feels immense improvement already. Lott explains that Sanchez has found initial success with a steady, daily stretching program to prepare his joints — one that’ll need to be integrated into a new, broader preparation regime once camp opens (and the season begins thereafter). Pitching through pain last year, Sanchez exhibited some velocity loss and a distinct lack of effectiveness. Though he actually managed a career-high 9.5% swinging-strike rate, due perhaps to ramped-up usage of his change at the expense of his once-dominant sinker, Sanchez drew less grounders than usual (a still-strong 49.1%) and struggled with free passes (5.0 per nine) as he struggled to stay in the zone (career-worst 40.5% zone rate). Needless to say, it would benefit both the Jays and Sanchez himself quite a bit if he’s able to author a turnaround. He’s slated to earn $3.9MM in his second-to-last season of team control.
A few more notes from the AL East …
- Speaking of injured hurlers from the division, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Red Sox righty Tyler Thornburg began his offseason throwing program earlier than usual this winter, adding that Thornburg’s shoulder has “tested out well” in the early-going. Boston has done nothing to address its bullpen this offseason after Joe Kelly left to sign with the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel hit the open market, and if that pattern holds, they’ll need Thornburg and others to step up and contribute more than most would’ve expected heading into the offseason. Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently went on record to suggest that he doesn’t anticipate spending heavily on a closer, and recent reports have implied that the Sox may prefer to remain south of the top luxury tax line.
- There’s still very little certainty on the Orioles‘ coaching staff, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com provides an update on a series of potential (in some cases likely) hires that could filter in as the Baltimore organization sets it staff. Kubatko writes that assistant hitting coach Howie Clark is expected to return in his previous role, while the organization may very well promote at least one staff member from the minor league ranks to help round out manager Brandon Hyde’s staff — specifically, Triple-A field coach Jose Hernandez, a 15-year MLB veteran who has since become a fixture in the O’s system. There’s other chatter in the post regarding how the Orioles may end up filling out their slate of coaches.
Red Sox, Reds Among Teams Interested In Shawn Kelley
12:20pm: Kelley is drawing interest from roughly 10 teams, including the Reds, per Jon Heyman of Fancred.
11:32am: The Red Sox and free-agent reliever Shawn Kelley “have been in contact,” Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. Meanwhile, Boston is unlikely to sign either Sergio Romo or Adam Warren in free agency, Cotillo hears.
With Joe Kelly having signed with the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel currently a free agent, acquiring bullpen help is likely the Red Sox’s top priority at the moment. But president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has suggested the reigning world champions aren’t going to splurge on a reliever, which means their union with Kimbrel could be over. Kelley would represent both a far more affordable but less exciting option, on the other hand, and could give the club a solid late-game arm for a low cost.
While Kelley has experienced some down seasons during his career, the journeyman has typically performed well in recent years. In 2018, which he split between the Nationals and Athletics, Kelley overcame tumbling velocity to post a 2.94 ERA/3.71 FIP and register 9.18 K/9 against 2.02 BB/9 across 49 innings. He did log an unappealing groundball rate (30.2 percent), however, which has been the case throughout his career. Kelley also saw his Nats tenure end unceremoniously when the team designated him for assignment Aug. 1, a day after he allowed a home run and slammed his glove to the ground during a 25-4 loss to the Mets. Upon designating Kelley, general manager Mike Rizzo noted, “If you’re not in, you’re in the way.”
Even though his Washington stint concluded in embarrassing fashion, Kelley was unfazed in Oakland, where he put up tremendous results in a 16 2/3-inning span. The Red Sox will hope for more of that from Kelley if they sign him, though they’re no doubt mindful it would be risky to count on the right-hander. After all, Kelley’s a soon-to-be 35-year-old with a pair of Tommy John surgeries under his belt, and he’s only two seasons removed from recording a hideous 7.27 ERA in 26 frames.
Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Betts, Sale, Porcello, Bullpen, Catchers
Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reported earlier this month that the world champion Red Sox had been discussing a contract extension with an unnamed player. It turns out that player was shortstop Xander Bogaerts, according to Drellich, though he adds that the two sides never came close to an agreement during their talks. The 26-year-old Bogaerts is now slated to make $12MM in 2019, potentially his last season with the Red Sox. Meanwhile, outfielder Andrew Benintendi – who, according to industry speculation, was an extension target for the Red Sox earlier this offseason – said Saturday he and the team haven’t talked about a new pact, Drellich relays. The 24-year-old Benintendi still has another pre-arbitration season remaining, meaning the Red Sox aren’t in danger of losing him for a while.
- As with Bogaerts, the Red Sox are at risk of losing outfielder and reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts in the near future. Betts, 26, is entering his penultimate year of arbitration control, in which he’ll earn $20MM (a record for a player in Year 2 of arb eligibility). Unsurprisingly, though, the Red Sox want to keep Betts in the fold for the long haul. CEO Sam Kennedy stated Saturday (via Drellich) that “we’ve made it crystal clear that we want him a part of the Red Sox organization long term.” Betts, for his part, said: “Contract things are kind of tough to come up with, especially with both sides and kind of how the economics and all those things work. I love Boston, love my teammates, love the fans and all those types of things, so we’ll just continue to see what happens.” While Betts does appear open to signing an extension with the Red Sox, he doesn’t seem averse to testing the open market, per Drellich.
- Two key members of Boston’s starting staff, left-hander Chris Sale and righty Rick Porcello, could each hit free agency a year from now. The soon-to-be 30-year-old Sale suggested Saturday that he’s willing to discuss an extension, but the Red Sox haven’t broached the subject yet. “My phone is on if they call me,” he said (via Ian Browne of MLB.com). “Obviously nothing has happened up until this point. If they call, I’d answer.” Sale also indicated that his left shoulder – which was a problem at times late last season, when he dealt with a massive drop in velocity – is no longer an issue. As for Porcello, 30, he also revealed that no extension talks have taken place, though he’d “love to” discuss a new contract with the club, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. For now, Porcello’s on track to wrap up the four-year, $82.5MM pact he signed with the Red Sox in April 2015.
- Having lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel to the open market, Boston’s “actively engaged with multiple free-agent relievers,” Cotillo writes. While Cotillo doesn’t rule out a Kimbrel re-signing, he notes an addition could come in the $2MM to $3MM neighborhood. Kimbrel will certainly earn far more than that, though there are several other free agents who could be possibilities for the Red Sox in that price range.
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Thursday he doesn’t expect that all three of the team’s catchers – Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart – will be on its Opening Day roster, Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com reports (subscription required). Because all of those players are out of options, a trade is likely coming. Dombrowski noted that “there’s interest, but we still haven’t made a deal we feel comfortable making.” All three catchers had abysmal offensive seasons over 200-plus plate appearances in 2018, but if defense is Boston’s main concern, the odd man out may be Swihart. After all, the former high-end prospect has accrued little playing time as a backstop over the past few years.
Quick Hits: Padres, Red Sox, Cubs
The Padres have done a tremendous job in recent years growing the top farm system in the game, but the organization underwent a financial reshaping that was just as important to long-term stability, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Mired in the debt inherited from previous owner John Moores, Executive Chairman Ron Fowler led the charge in two important ways: refinancing the debt (thereby lowering interest rates and freeing up money to funnel into baseball ops), and opening the organization’s spending ledger to the public – an uncommon degree of transparency for an MLB club. Acee’s entire article is well worth a read as it paints a fairly complete picture of San Diego’s battle to build a winning franchise that is also fiscally sustainable. Essentially, the Padres followed the structural rebuilding approach popularized by Theo Epstein in Chicago: improve fan experience with additions/renovations to the ballpark while pouring roster resources into the acquisition and development of amateur and international talent. Epstein’s focus on improving the ballpark itself was a strategy he employed in Boston with Fenway Park, and again with Wrigley Field in Chicago. Speaking of…
- The Red Sox are treading awfully close to the penalty-inducing $246MM tax threshold, and Masslive.com’s Christopher Smith wonders if that might be why they didn’t make a push to sign reliever Adam Ottavino. Dave Dombrowski has said there’s no mandate from ownership to avoid the highest tax bracket – but that’s still the goal. It’s easy to wonder why the Red Sox haven’t made more of a push to reinforce the back end of their bullpen, but it’s not totally fair to assume Ottavino was available to them for $9MM a year, as merely matching the Yankees offer doesn’t steal the contract like a white elephant gift. Still, with Joe Kelly in LA and Craig Kimbrel twisting in the wind, there is a surprising lack of urgency to add to the current stable of arms in the bullpen, especially considering the narrow margin for error in the AL East.
- Much has been made of the Cubs lack of activity this winter as well, burnished by Theo Epstein’s early-offseason assertion that the offense was broken. Owner Tom Ricketts, however, doesn’t see any room for an addition in the lineup, writes the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Considering the overall youth of their core and the injuries that limited star Kris Bryant to 102 games last season, Epstein and Ricketts might both be right. The team clearly isn’t willing to give up on Jason Heyward yet, so you can pencil him into the starting spot in right, with Ian Happ in center and Ben Zobrist at second, Albert Almora Jr., Addison Russell, David Bote and Daniel Descalso make up the remaining bench unit, ostensibly filling the roster. Outside of fringe roster types, the Cubs offense might be a one-man-in, one-man-out situation for the rest of the winter.
- There’s cause enough to be concerned about the Cubs offense in 2019, certainly, between Russell’s suspension, Zobrist’s age, and Willson Contreras‘ obvious exhaustion near the end of last season, but internally, there’s much to be excited about. At the Cubs Convention this week, Bryant and Epstein both talked up new hitting coach Anthony Iopace, whom Epstein calls “the ultimate fox-hole guy,” per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). As the Cubs former minor league hitting coordinator, he has a rapport with many Cubs hitters already and should be able to hit the ground running. Bryant, for one, is excited about a new season under the infectious energy of “‘Poce,” per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. The Cubs brain trust appear firm in their belief that tinkering of internal processes is all the team needs to bounce back from a “disappointing” 95-win season and challenge for the top spot in the NL Central once again.
Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford
With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.
Here’s the latest on the relief market:
- The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel‘s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
- With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
- Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.