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Which Pitchers Should Fear Robot Umpires?

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The future of baseball is filled with uncertainty these days, but there is one thing we do know about the future of the sport: robot umpires are coming!

Just ask Jayson Stark of the Athletic, who wrote back in January, “MLB is moving purposefully toward the world of electronic strike zones. And now that even the umpires’ union has pledged its cooperation, it’s almost a sure bet: This. Is. Happening.”

Stark’s not new to the robot revolution, as he’s written about the issue here and here as well. The fact is, electronic strike zones are already being implemented through trials in the Atlantic League and Spring Training. The fact that umpires have given their okay to begin testing makes their eventual implementation all but guaranteed.

Not only are electronic strike zones on their way, but it could happen sooner than you think. Stark suggests they’ll be in the majors potentially as early as 2022. Given that most prospects taken in the draft project to make their debuts in 3-5 years, teams are already drafting with the world of electronic strike zones firmly in their sights.

With this change coming, let’s table for a moment the many technical issues the league will face and instead consider the practical implications for the players. As I wrote after Stark’s report back in January, “The mental games used to inch the strike zone this way or that has long been a tool of the game’s best – from the hitters whose impeccable eye define it, to the pitchers’ whose pinpoint control push to expand it – but an automated zone will all but abolish the in-game politicking of the strike zone, giving hitters a new advantage they have long been without: certainty.” Per Statcast data, major league hitters swung at 33 pitches outside the zone per game in 2019 (~80,000 total for the year). It’s no surprise hitters struggle with zone control because the umpires themselves don’t always have a clear conception of where the zone lies. 

Roughly a quarter of all called third strikes in 2019 were on pitches that landed outside the zone. Home plate umpires made an average of 14 incorrect calls per game in 2019, which tracks with this Boston University study that looked at umpire accuracy going back more than ten seasons. The fact is, umpire error is making a huge impact on the game on a daily basis. The batter/pitcher relationship is the essential, critical matchup of the game. When this relationship loses integrity, the game itself suffers from existential crises. The whole reason umpires exist is to keep that crisis at bay. Most of us, after all, watch the game to see the talent of the batters and pitchers involved – not the umpires. Like it or not, when an umpire fails to properly adjudicate – when he misses a call – it muddies the waters of the game’s foundational competition.

Or in baseball terms, when ahead in the count, batters reached base at a .477 OBP clip in 2019. When behind in the count, that number drops to .209 OBP. That’s the difference between an absolute superstar and a sub-replacement-level hitter. When a batter falls behind because the umpire gifted a strike to the pitcher, the whole at-bat changes. The nature of the competition changes.

Digging into the data made available through Statcast, it’s not that difficult to find those incorrect calls. Build a book of umpire accuracy metrics for each pitcher by year, and we can get some clarity on how electronic strike zones are going to affect pitchers. The first question is this: are human umpires gifting more strikes to a particular kind of pitcher? To fireballers or workhorses or control artists or power pitchers?

If you’re interesting in walking through the data science behind this question, feel free to check out a video walkthrough of the process here, but the most interesting takeaway was this: there were four differentiating attributes of those pitchers who tended to get extra strikes versus those who did not: velocity, spin, role, and handedness.

Umpires tend to gift more strikes to pitchers with lower velocity, lower spin, to starters more than relievers, and to righties more than lefties. This makes sense if we think in terms of umpire vision. Given the active nature of a strike call versus the passive nature of a ball call, even a moment of uncertainty may lead an umpire to letting a strike go by without making a call. It makes sense, then, that umps might be more liberal with strike calls when they can see the ball more clearly. 

The league has trended towards higher velocity, higher spin pitchers in part because those pitches are more difficult for the batter to pick up, both because of their speed, and because the higher spin rate generally leads to a higher effective speed. It makes sense, then, that umpires would have difficulty picking up these pitches as well. Umpires may also have an itchier trigger finger with starters, whom they’re more comfortable with because they see them for longer periods of time, and with right-handers, who at least anecdotally, have less movement on their ball than southpaws.

Let’s look at some examples. Jon Lester has been one of the most consistently umpire-aided pitchers in the league. He runs counter to type by being left-handed, but those who’ve spent time watching Cubs games the last few seasons will tell you, Lester complains from pitch one and doesn’t stop griping until the ball is forcibly removed from his hand. He’s a bully, no doubt, and he bullies his way to extra strikes whenever possible. In 2019, roughly 25% of Lester’s called strikes were on pitches that landed outside the zone (versus ~17% average). He also had a very low percentage of “Stolen Strikes.” Of all the pitches he threw in 2019 at which the batter did not swing, only 2.4% of them were balls that should have been called strikes. 

On the other side, we find one of baseball’s premier villains: Aroldis Chapman. Chapman fits the mold of a guy that umpires aren’t likely to help out. He’s 99th percentile in fastball velocity, 92nd percentile in fastball spin, he’s a lefty, and he only pitches for usually an inning at a time at the highest-leverage moments of the game. Of all the pitches he threw in 2019 when the batter did not swing, he was “gifted a strike” on just 2.4% of those pitches, while 5.4% of those were “Stolen Strikes.”

There are other factors of course, beyond the velocity, spin, role, and handedness of the pitcher. Catcher framing certainly has an impact, and individual umpires themselves will have their own conscious or subconscious biases. But as we look ahead to a world of robot umpires, it does seem that lower velocity starters – workhorses and control artists – are going to lose the little bit of leeway that umpires are giving them now, whereas closers and firemen, guys with amazing pure stuff like Chapman will be even more valuable because they’re going to start getting some calls that umpires aren’t giving him now.

The Yankees’ (Brief) History Of Contract Extensions

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Twenty-eight different contract extensions were signed between teams and players between February-April 2019, and the Yankees were one of the many clubs that joined in on this rush.  Aaron Hicks was a season away from free agency at the time, though the outfielder chose to forego the open market in favor of a contract that paid him $64MM in new money through the 2025 season.  Right-hander Luis Severino inked a four-year, $40MM deal that covered his four arbitration-eligible years as a Super Two player, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for the 2023 season, which would have been Severino’s first free agent year.

Another extension came after the season, as the Yankees worked out an agreement with Aroldis Chapman that would see the closer decline his opt-out clause in favor of a three-year, $48MM extension that essentially added an extra year (and another $18MM) onto the final two seasons of Chapman’s previous contract.

Three extensions in less than a year is a pretty notable amount of business for any team on the long-term front.  In the Yankees’ case, however, it counts as an absolute flurry given how rarely the Bronx Bombers have engaged in such internal long-term deals.  New York’s three extensions in 2019 came on the heels of only six extensions in the previous 18 years.

The reason for this lack of extension action is simple — it was against team policy.  “I just don’t believe in contract extensions, and that’s throughout the organization, no matter who it is,” managing partner Hal Steinbrenner told the Associated Press and other reporters in 2010.  “Hopefully nobody takes that personally. It’s just business.”

Between the time Steinbrenner officially became the Yankees’ control person in November 2008 and the start of 2019, his anti-extension stance stayed almost completely intact, with two exceptions that somewhat mirrored the Chapman and Hicks situations.  C.C. Sabathia also had a contractual opt-out decision following the 2011 season, though he and the Yankees worked out a new deal that gave the southpaw five years and a guaranteed $122MM to overwrite the previous four years and $92MM remaining on his previous contract.  Prior to the 2014 season, Brett Gardner (like Hicks) was also just a year away from free agency before New York locked him up for a four-year, $52MM extension.

Beyond the Sabathia and Gardner contracts, however, that was it on the extension front.  As Steinbrenner noted, the “no matter who it is” edict even stretched to the likes of Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter, who both reached the open market before eventually (and, in Jeter’s case, not without some contentious words) re-signing with New York.  Even general manager Brian Cashman’s last three contracts have only been signed after the GM’s previous deals had expired.

Why would the team take such a hard line?  In short, the Yankees always wanted as much flexibility as possible in deciding their future moves, since they had the financial resources to immediately pivot to a better option in free agency or the trade market if such an upgrade was available.  Whereas other teams pursued extensions as a way of locking up young talent into their free agent years or at least getting some cost certainty through arbitration years, such concerns simply weren’t on the Yankees’ radar given their free-spending ways.

Of course, the franchise has become somewhat more cost-conscious in recent years, which likely explains the Bombers’ openness towards extensions in 2019.  After 15 years of overages, the Yankees finally ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold during the 2018 season, allowing them to reset their penalty clock for 2019 (when they surpassed the threshold again).  Though New York didn’t go to the extremes of other big-market clubs like the Cubs or Red Sox in limiting or eliminating their luxury tax payments, the Yankees saw value in getting under the tax line once, plus they had the additional bonus of being able to cut their tax bill while still remaining competitive since so many of the club’s young stars seemingly broke out at the same time.

With the CBT penalty reset, the Yankees had the freedom to explore a tactic like signing Severino through his arbitration years.  The deal was seen at the time as very canny, given that Severino seemed to be a burgeoning ace, and thus in line for an escalating arb price tag.  In Hicks’ case, he may have had extra motivation to sign an extension given how the restrained 2017-18 and 2018-19 free agent markets left a lot of players settling for below-market deals or having long waits on the open market.  Hicks could have preferred the security of just remaining in New York, and his price was apparently satisfactory enough for the Yankees to make the long-term commitment to a player they obviously wanted to retain.

The early returns on both deals, however, haven’t been good.  Injuries limited Hicks to only 59 games in 2019 and he underwent Tommy John surgery last October, putting him out of action until at least June (though he might not miss any game time at all, given the delayed start to the season).  The news was even worse for Severino, who tossed just 12 innings last season due to injuries and then underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own in late February.  The righty now won’t be back on the mound until early in the 2021 campaign.

It isn’t yet clear if the disastrous starts to both of these extensions may have once again made the team wary of such longer-term deals, or if Steinbrenner and the Yankees front office still consider the process to be sound — after all, there’s still plenty of time for Hicks and Severino to make good on their deals.  Since big-picture concerns likely inspired the club’s decision-making towards those extensions in the first place, it’s safe to assume that inevitable changes to the sport’s financial structure will also impact the Yankees’ future approach more so than a pair of Tommy John surgeries.

Both baseball and the world at large are gripped with the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, plus there’s also the fact that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the players’ union is up in December 2021.  With these factors in mind, it isn’t a stretch to say that the way baseball does business could be vastly different two years from now, which could leave the Yankees and several other teams hesitant about committing any more long-term money until things can be figured out.

Working out an extension for, say, Aaron Judge seems to pale in comparison to such matters.  But, when trying to guess whether or not New York will (once the roster freeze is lifted) seek out multi-year deals for the likes of Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Miguel Andujar, or any number of other players, it’s worth noting that the Yankees generally don’t extend players very often, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they return to their old wait-and-see approach.

NL Notes: Cubs, Morrow, Nationals, Turner, D’Backs, Hazen, Bryant

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Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow is healthy, which has rarely been the case throughout his Cubs tenure. Morrow should be on schedule for the spring, though the Cubs are keeping open the possibility of bringing him along more slowly than the other pitchers in camp. A different schedule would be purely precautionary, however, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Morrow arrived in Chicago as the heir apparent to Wade Davis, who had been the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman before him. When healthy, Morrow has been nothing short of elite, but after just 35 appearances in 2018 followed by an entire season in absentia, Morrow enters 2020 in no better position than the many other arms the Cubs have collected on minor league deals.

  • The Nationals are entering another year of uncertainty in their lineup. Manager Dave Martinez is weighing a move for powerful leadoff man Trea Turner into the middle of the order, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Turner certainly has enough oomph to man the middle of the order. A full season of the .298/.353/.497 line he put up last year would ably fill the 3-hole recently vacated by his bromance partner Anthony Rendon. Adam Eaton remains a viable top-of-the-order presence after putting up a .365 OBP mostly out of the 2-hole, who could presumably move up a slot into the leadoff vacancy. Putting Turner’s speed directly in front of the ever-patient and fear-inducing cleanup presence of Juan Soto might not be the most natural pairing, however. Martinez will have some big decisions to make, largely dependent upon who wins the third base job and what kind of jump Victor Robles can make at the plate.
  • In an interview with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says he doesn’t envision the team making a blockbuster deal like trading for Kris Bryant this far into the offseason. Major roster decisions have largely been made, and it’s more the time for fine-tuning. Hazen left open the possibility of adding a bullpen arm or another body for the bench, but a blockbuster is less likely. That said, the Diamondbacks never found the centerfielder they were seeking, which would push Ketel Marte back into the outfield and open starter’s minutes somewhere in the infield. The Diamondbacks have already taken more big swings this offseason than Hazen anticipated, so one more – even at this stage – can’t be entirely ruled out.

AL East Notes: Chapman, Yankees, Liu, Edwin

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • Negotiations between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees about the closer’s contract extension apparently came down to the final moments before the deadline for Chapman to decide whether or not to exercise his opt-out clause, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Chapman was hoping to have two extra years added onto the remaining two years on his pre-existing contract, but ultimately settled for just one extra season ($18MM for the 2022 season).
  • The impact of Chapman’s new contract on the Yankees’ luxury tax situation is examined by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who observes that the extension won’t lead to any savings due to the “true-up charge” associated with the specific breakdown of how Chapman’s salaries were paid out over the first three years of his deal, largely due to a signing bonus payout.  As a result, Chapman’s new tax number is $17.5MM over the next three years, which doesn’t help alleviate the crunch for a Yankees team that Sherman figures is already approaching the $208MM threshold for 2020 just with pre-existing roster talent.  The Yankees will face tax penalties for surpassing the second level ($226MM) of the tax threshold in 2019, and it remains to be seen how far over the $208MM threshold ownership will allow the front office to go in 2020.  As Sherman notes, ownership would presumably balk at surpassing the top penalty level of $248MM, which would impact the Yankees’ chances of adding a mega-salary (i.e. for a Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg) and retaining free agents like Didi Gregorius or Dellin Betances.
  • A brief scouting report on newly-signed Red Sox right-hander Chih-Jung Liu is provided by former big leaguer Chien-Ming Wang to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, as Wang has worked with the 20-year-old prospect.  Liu “needs to improve his slider and splitter to have a good out pitch” and “needs to build up his arm strength and pitch count,” Wang said.  These aren’t unusual criticisms for any young pitcher, especially for a case like Liu, who mostly played shortstop in high school and only recently got back into pitching.  Liu is also “bright” and “seems to be able to adapt to [a] new environment quickly,” Wang said, and he also noted that Liu asked him how to throw a sinkerball, Wang’s signature pitch.  Abraham reports that the Phillies and Diamondbacks were among the other teams who had interest in Liu before the Red Sox signed him for $750K.
  • Now that Edwin Encarnacion is officially a free agent, could the slugger potentially return to the Blue Jays?  There is room on paper, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have a vacancy at first base/DH since Justin Smoak is also headed for free agency, and Encarnacion could likely be had on a fairly inexpensive one-year deal.  However, with the Blue Jays still in rebuild mode, Nicholson-Smith figures it probably makes more sense for the club to “find the next Encarnacion instead,” i.e. a player who can be an important contributor for several years.  Toronto GM Ross Atkins has also spoken of wanting a first baseman who can play multiple positions, while Encarnacion is limited to first base (and could best be suited for a DH role altogether).

Yankees To Extend Aroldis Chapman

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Reports indicate that the Yankees have reached an agreement to keep closer Aroldis Chapman in pinstripes through 2022. New York will add a third year valued at $18MM in addition to the two years and $30MM that remained on Chapman’s previous contract with the club, bringing its total commitment to the hurler to $48MM over the next three seasons, according to reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan (link).

Chapman had been facing a Saturday deadline on an opt-out decision regarding the remaining two seasons on the five-year contract he signed with the club prior to the 2017 season, but the addition of a third season has apparently persuaded him to forego open market opportunities. His original deal with New York represented the largest guarantee ($86MM) ever given to a free agent reliever, and this extension promises to bring Chapman’s six-year Yankees outlay to a whopping $104MM.

Our own Steve Adams predicted on Friday that a three-year deal would be the 31-year-old pitcher’s most likely free agency outcome if Chapman’s representatives at Magnus Sports had been unable to reach an extension accord with New York. That both club and agency were able to come to an agreement should be a boon to the Yankees bullpen, being that Chapman’s presence will allow fellow relievers Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green to remain in the roles they held in 2019. And that’s before accounting for the Cuban native’s personal performance.

In 2019, Chapman, though not exactly the radar gun-breaking flamethrower he once was, recorded superlative numbers by pretty much any measure. He posted 57 innings — his most since signing with New York — en route to a sparkling 2.21 ERA; his 13.4 K/9 rate and 0.47 HR/9 rate were also ready evidence of the lefthander’s late-inning dominance. Working in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium, Chapman recorded 37 saves–his seventh time in the last eight seasons eclipsing the 30-save plateau.

Had Chapman chosen to forego the remaining two years on his deal, he would have in all likelihood entered free agency with a $17.8MM qualifying offer attached to his name. Last offseason saw another great closer of the current era, Craig Kimbrel, remain on the open market well into the regular season after being attached to a QO, so it’s fair to wonder whether that spectacle encouraged Chapman to remain with the bird in hand. Regardless, tonight’s development marks a continued union between arguably the game’s best closer and a team that has in recent years come tantalizingly close to postseason paydirt.

With Chapman off the board, names like Will Harris, Will Smith, Daniel Hudson, and Dellin Betances likely represent the upper end of the 2019-2020 free agent relief class. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a look at some of this winter’s most interesting free agent bullpen arms.

Chapman Hopes For Extension With Yankees, Will Otherwise Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is pursuing an extension but otherwise plans to utilize the opt-out clause in his five-year contract, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). A decision on that opt-out provision is due tomorrow, leaving his representatives at Magnus Sports with a small window to work out a new deal. (Although, presumably, the two sides have already been in contact well before today’s report.)

Chapman, 32 in February, has two years and $30MM remaining on the five-year, $86MM pact he inked prior to the 2017 season. In the event that an extension isn’t reached, the Yankees will surely issue him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he’ll reject in order to head into free agency. (That much is evident based on logic and common sense; if Chapman is to walk away from $30MM over the next two seasons, he’d certainly decline less than that on a one-year term even if it included a relatively small bump in terms of yearly salary.)

At 32, another five-year deal for Chapman won’t be there in free agency. Realistically, a three-year deal seems like the most plausible outcome whether it manifests with the Yankees tacking an extra year onto his current deal (as they did with CC Sabathia several years ago) or via an open-market agreement. Chapman’s $86MM guarantee is still a record among relief pitchers, but he’d have the opportunity to set another new record on the open market by taking aim at Wade Davis’ precedent-setting annual salary ($17.33MM). Anything north of $52MM over a three-year term — or even something like $36MM over a two-year term — would give Chapman the relief pitcher records in both total guarantee and AAV.

Chapman’s on-field performance in 2019 was arguably the best of any of his three full seasons under his current deal. He tossed 57 innings — his most since signing — and worked to a pristine 2.21 ERA with averages of 13.4 strikeouts, 4.0 walks and just 0.47 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. That home-run rate is particularly impressive given his hitter-friendly home parks (and several others in the AL East) as well as the league-wide homer spike with this year’s superball. Chapman racked up 37 saves in 2019, marking his seventh 30-save season in the past eight years.

It’s true that Chapman doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. But while he’s no longer averaging 100.4 mph on his heater, this season’s 98.4 mph average still ranked as the sixth-highest among the 458 relievers who tossed at least 10 innings. In all, he’s given the Yankees 158 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with 91 saves, 14.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over the first three years of the deal (including two All-Star nods). He’s added on another 16 1/3 innings of 1.65 ERA ball with a 29-to-7 K/BB ratio in the postseason, though this year’s final impression — a series-ending, walk-off homer to Jose Altuve — wasn’t a favorable note on which to end that otherwise strong run.

Some may point to Craig Kimbrel as evidence that Chapman should be wary of venturing into free agency as a reliever with a qualifying offer attached to his name, but Kimbrel should rather serve as a lesson in the importance of managing expectations. If Chapman goes to market seeking a record-setting guarantee over five or six years, as Kimbrel apparently did, then he’ll indeed have his share of troubles. If he’s seeking out a more palatable four- or three-year pact, he could have an easier time, as was the case with the aforementioned Davis two winters ago when he signed his own record deal in Colorado. Even Kimbrel himself ultimately landed a strong three-year deal worth a prorated $43MM when he ultimately did put pen to paper.

Postseason Injury Notes: Chapman, Wacha, Diaz

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman was seen with his left hand heavily bandaged during the team’s celebration last night, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post, but the lefty insisted that there was no serious injury at play. Rather, Chapman explained, he was hit with a bottle while jumping with teammates to celebrate the Yankees’ advancement to the American League Championship Series. There’s no indication that Chapman would need to miss New York’s forthcoming date with either the Astros or the Rays.

A few more injury situations to monitor around the league…

  • Cardinals righty Michael Wacha will throw a bullpen session tomorrow, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. A mild shoulder strain kept Wacha off the Cardinals’ NLDS roster, but if he comes out of this ’pen session well and the Cards manage to topple the Braves in tomorrow’s decisive Game 5, Wacha could reemerge as an option for the pitching staff in the next round. Of course, Wacha didn’t exactly cement himself as a crucial part of a postseason roster while struggling through one of his worst big league seasons. In 126 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.76 ERA with career-worst marks in K/9 (7.4), BB/9 (3.9) and HR/9 (1.85). He’ll be a free agent this winter, so if he doesn’t return for a potential NLCS berth, Wacha may have already tossed his last pitch as a Cardinal.
  • Rays slugger Yandy Diaz is still on the team’s postseason roster despite exiting Monday’s game with an apparent foot injury, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Though he’s not in tonight’s starting lineup — Joey Wendle gets the nod at third base, with Ji-Man Choi at first and Tommy Pham DH’ing — Diaz presumably remains available for pinch-hit duties or for a mid-game substitution. Wade Miley is the only lefty on Houston’s ALDS roster, but Diaz and his .314/.397/.588 slash against southpaws could quite likely emerge from the dugout if Miley makes his way to the mound.

Poll: Aroldis Chapman’s Opt-Out Clause

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Wednesday morning that Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will become one of the most notable names on the free-agent market in the offseason. Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on the five-year, $86MM contract he signed entering 2016, but a source told Rosenthal the left-hander is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and revisit the open market in a few months. Chapman subsequently denied the report, but the still-great fireballer does seem like a realistic candidate to outdo the remainder of his current contract in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes expects Chapman to opt out, having ranked the Cuban flamethrower sixth in his most recent list of potential free agents.

There may be an argument for Chapman to stay put, though, if you consider the less-than-ideal trip to free agency fellow longtime standout closer Craig Kimbrel took this past season. Kimbrel, thanks in part to a qualifying offer, went until early June without a contract before finally signing with the Cubs. But Kimbrel showed real signs of decline in 2018, and despite that, the 31-year-old still signed a three-year, $43MM contract worth a substantial amount more than what’s left on Chapman’s pact.

Chapman, who will turn 32 next February, remains a game-ending force. The former Red and Cub has lost a bit of velocity this season, but he’s still throwing near 100 mph. He’s also the owner of a 2.45 ERA/2.09 FIP with 13.01 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, a 45.8 percent groundball rate and 25 saves in 29 chances across 36 2/3 innings this year. Neither lefties nor righties have done much to solve Chapman, who has yielded a .257 weighted on-base average/.263 expected wOBA in 2019.

Not only has Chapman thrived again this year, but no other reliever would offer a better track record than him in free agency. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen could opt out of the two years and $38MM left on his contract, but he has been more vulnerable than usual this season. Giants closer and impending free agent Will Smith has been tremendous this year, though he can’t match Chapman’s long-term excellence. Meanwhile, Chapman’s teammate Dellin Betances has enjoyed a phenomenal career as a setup man, yet multiple injuries have prevented him from pitching at all this season. The rest of the impending free-agent class doesn’t approach Chapman.

If there’s one factor that could significantly tamp down Chapman’s earning power, it’s a qualifying offer. Teams didn’t want to cough up a massive amount of money and surrender a draft pick for Kimbrel or starter Dallas Keuchel, two stars who sat without a job until last month. Chapman would also have a QO and draft compensation hanging over his head, as there’s no chance the Yankees would allow him to leave without getting something in return. But it’s improbable that would be enough to stop Chapman from giving free agency another whirl during the upcoming winter. What do you expect him to do?

(Poll link for app users)

Aroldis Chapman Refutes Report That He Expects To Opt Out After Season

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2:34pm: Chapman made clear to reporters today that he has yet to make any such decision, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch was among those to report on Twitter. He says he has not even yet discussed the matter and calls it “completely false” to suggest he has decided to opt out.

2:23pm: A confidant of Yankees lefty Aroldis Chapman says that the star reliever is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and return to the open market at the end of the season, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).

It’s not really surprising to hear such a stance from the 31-year-old fireballer. He is owed another $30MM over two years on the contract he inked to return to New York after the 2017 season. But as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote just yesterday, in ranking Chapman sixth among pending free agents, it seems reasonable to think he could secure a rather significantly larger contract on the open market — even given that he’ll certainly be forced to reject a qualifying offer and carry the burden of draft compensation if he opts out.

True, Chapman is exhibiting a typical velocity reduction at this stage of his career. But in his case that means he’s averaging 98.2 mph with his four-seamer — good for fourth among all qualified relievers in baseball. Chapman is also still sitting in triple-digits (second in baseball) with a two-seam offering that he has gone to more than ever.

It is notable that Chapman carries only a 12.7% swinging-strike rate, lower than any of his single-season marks. But he’s still carrying an excellent 2.45 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/9. Notably, that walk rate is much better than Chapman’s typical 4+ rate. His first-pitch strike rate sits at 63.2%, a personal high.

Some might point to the Craig Kimbrel contract as reason for Chapman to think twice. But that’s an odd interpretation, particularly considering that the latter has not (to this point, at least) shown the kinds of worrying signs that Kimbrel did in his platform season. Kimbrel also could have landed a larger deal had things shaken out differently in the way his market situation unfolded. Oh, and the contract he did sign? He ultimately took down $43MM over three seasons, the first of which he only played in the second half. That’s clearly a better deal for a relief pitcher of this age than Chapman’s remaining 2/30.

Chapman also won’t face immense competition from the remainder of the free agent market. Kenley Jansen seems less likely to opt out, as he’s not only owed more ($38MM) over the two years of his deal but has shown more worrying declines in velocity and some key peripherals. Otherwise, Will Smith does provide interested teams with another high-end lefty reliever to consider, but he lacks Chapman’s long track record of consistent dominance. And it isn’t as if both can’t find hefty paydays.

For the Yankees, a Chapman opt-out would create some interesting choices. The club would certainly have internal alternatives, even with Dellin Betances (who’s still working towards his season debut) also set to test the open market. Veterans Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino have experience in the ninth, while Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green have the kind of stuff that teams like to see in that spot. It’s possible the Yanks could look into Smith and explore the trade market. And as Dierkes noted in his writeup on the top pending free agents, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Yanks forestall an opt-out by adding to the existing contract — or simply beat the rest of the market to bring the power southpaw back to the Bronx.

Aroldis Chapman On Upcoming Opt-Out Decision

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is one of several prominent major leaguers who will have a chance to opt out of his contract after the season. Unlike a lot of his peers, there’s seemingly a realistic shot Chapman will vacate the remainder of his deal.

The Cuban fireballer briefly discussed his future with Ken Davidoff of the New York Post during this week’s All-Star festivities, saying through an interpreter: “Honestly, I haven’t been thinking about that at all because through these years, I’ve dealt with some injuries. So the concentration and the focus was to stay healthy this year and try to have a good season. It hasn’t even crossed my mind.”

Chapman’s in his second go-around with the Yankees, who acquired the superstar left-hander for a fairly underwhelming package of players from the Reds in December 2015 amid troubling domestic violence allegations. The league suspended Chapman for the first 30 games of 2016, but he came back to dominate on the mound with New York that year. The Yankees weren’t surefire contenders when the summer rolled around, though, and Chapman was on the cusp of free agency. Consequently, they traded him to the Cubs in a win-win deal. The Yankees landed middle infielder Gleyber Torres, then an excellent prospect and now a terrific 22-year-old major leaguer. The Cubs, with Chapman’s help, won their first World Series in 108 years.

Fresh off his championship with the Cubs, Chapman rejoined the Yankees heading into 2017 for a five-year, $86MM payday. That’s still the largest guarantee ever awarded to a reliever. Chapman will have another two years and $30MM left on his contract after this season, but considering the way he has pitched, the soon-to-be 32-year-old could try his hand in free agency again.

Now a six-time All-Star, Chapman has avoided injuries in 2019 and recorded a matching 1.82 ERA/1.82 FIP with 12.98 K/9, 3.12 BB/9 (one of the lowest walk rates of his career) and a 45.2 percent groundball rate over 34 2/3 innings. Chapman has racked up 24 saves in 27 tries in the process, giving him 260 on 290 tries in his career. Adding to Chapman’s appeal, Statcast regards him as elite or close to it in strikeout percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity against, expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average.

If you’re looking for negatives, Chapman’s K/9, although hefty, is the second-worst mark of his career. Meanwhile, Chapman’s swinging-strike percentage (12.3) is a personal low, merely above average and far less than his lifetime figure (16.8). A drop in four-seam velocity has possibly contributed to Chapman missing fewer bats, though his 98 mph heat remains plenty imposing, and the 99.9 average on his sinker – a pitch he uses just over 10 percent of the time – is jaw-dropping.

All things considered, Chapman has a legitimate case to head back to the open market, where he’d again be the most proven closer available. Unlike his previous trip to free agency, though, Chapman would surely come with a qualifying offer attached. The Yankees wouldn’t simply let him walk for nothing.

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