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Royals Sought Josh Winder For Michael A. Taylor In Trade Talks With Twins

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The Twins have contacted the Royals this offseason about the possibility of acquiring center fielder Michael A. Taylor, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. However, Hayes adds that Minnesota was “discouraged” by Kansas City’s ask for right-hander Josh Winder in return. There’s no indication conversations between the clubs are still ongoing.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last month that Kansas City was making Taylor available in trade. Minnesota is the first known team to have checked in with Royals GM J.J. Picollo and his staff regarding the defense-first outfielder. Even if talks didn’t advance especially far, Kansas City’s ask for Winder suggests they’re at least opening conversations regarding Taylor with a lofty goal. That might be especially true for an intra-divisional opponent like the Twins.

Winder, 26, is one of the more highly-regarded pitchers in the Minnesota organization. While he entered pro ball with little fanfare as a 7th-round pick out of VMI, he put himself firmly on the radar coming out of the canceled 2020 minor league season. Winder pushed his average fastball velocity up a few ticks into the mid-90s over the lost year and excelled over 10 starts at Double-A Wichita to start the 2021 campaign. He struggled in a four-start look with Triple-A St. Paul to end that season but nevertheless entered 2022 as one of the better prospects in the Twins’ system.

Baseball America slotted the 6’5″ hurler sixth in the Minnesota system heading into last season, calling him a potential mid-rotation starter. Winder broke camp with the MLB club and made his first 15 big league appearances. He made 11 starts and came out of the bullpen four times, working to a 4.70 ERA through 67 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate and 35% grounder percentage were each markedly below average, though he continued his career-long track record of pounding the strike zone.

While it wasn’t a resoundingly successful debut effort, Winder showed enough promise to believe he could still play a long-term rotation role in the Twin Cities. He mixed four pitches with regularity, led by a 94 MPH fastball and mid-80s slider. Winder has long had above-average or better control and held his own against left-handed batters last season. Even if he never misses enough bats to reach the mid-rotation upside some prospect evaluators had forecasted, he’s an upper-level depth arm who could carve out a back-of-the-rotation spot as soon as this year.

Minnesota optioned Winder on a couple occasions last year. That exhausted his first of three option years but also means he fell shy of accruing a full year of service time. He’s controllable for at least another six seasons and additional assignments back to St. Paul could push his free agent trajectory back further. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.

It’s not surprising the Twins wouldn’t relinquish six-plus years of Winder’s services for Taylor, who is only under contract for the 2023 campaign. Minnesota could see each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda depart via free agency next offseason. That’d leave them with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and unproven younger arms like Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland to vie for rotation spots as things stand. The long-term uncertainty has led the Twins to entertain trade possibilities with the Marlins about potentially adding a controllable starter like Pablo López to the mix.

While one season of Taylor’s services isn’t likely to bring back Winder, he should have a decent amount of appeal on the trade market. The veteran outfielder has had a productive two-year run in K.C. after spending the bulk of his career with the Nationals. Taylor has long been a below-average offensive player thanks to swing-and-miss concerns, but he’s one of the sport’s preeminent outfield defenders.

The 31-year-old (32 in March) has played upwards of 1000 innings in center field in each of the last two years. He’s been a stellar fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium, with Defensive Runs Saved estimating he’s been 19 runs better than an average center fielder in both seasons. His cumulative +38 DRS is head and shoulders above the rest of the league at the position, with Myles Straw checking in second at +21 runs. Statcast has been a little more conservative but still pegged Taylor as +19 runs over the past two seasons, tied with Harrison Bader for second behind Straw.

While whether Taylor’s truly the league’s best defensive outfielder or “merely” in the top handful is debatable, it’s clear he’s an elite gloveman. That drives his value, as he carries a modest .249/.304/.357 line in just under 1000 plate appearances as a Royal. To his credit, Taylor has tamped down on the massive strikeout rates of his time in Washington, with last season’s 23.9% strikeout percentage only a couple points worse than the league average. He’s had to sacrifice some hard contact to put the ball in play more frequently, posting the two lowest isolated power marks of his career the last couple seasons.

Even as a bottom-of-the-lineup type, Taylor’s a valuable player. He’s also making just $4.5MM in 2023, meaning he should be able to fit on virtually any club’s payroll ledger. Minnesota eyed him as a fourth outfielder as potential injury insurance behind Byron Buxton and a right-handed bat to integrate into an outfield that skews very left-handed. Yet he could appeal to other clubs as more of an everyday center field option, particularly given the market scarcity at the position. The free agent center field market is barren enough the Red Sox agreed to terms with Adam Duvall — who’s 34 and has been mostly a corner player throughout his career — to play up the middle. Trade possibilities are similarly sparse, particularly since the Pirates have remained firm on their ask for Bryan Reynolds.

That all makes Taylor a potentially interesting trade candidate. The Royals’ discussions with the Twins suggest they’re not prepared to move him without getting a strong return. That seems unlikely to come from Minnesota, though teams like the Marlins, Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies could check in as they continue to seek out help at the position.

Brewers Sign Brian Anderson

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Jan. 18: Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the deal is for one-year and $3.5MM, with up to $2MM in incentives.

Jan. 17: The Brewers are in agreement on a deal with free agent third baseman/corner outfielder Brian Anderson, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical. Anderson is a client of CAA Sports.

Anderson, 30 in May, had spent his entire career as a member of the Marlins. Selected in the third round of the 2014 draft, the University of Arkansas product reached the majors a little more than three years later. He debuted at the tail end of the 2017 season and established himself as Miami’s everyday third baseman the following year.

That marked the first of four straight years in which Miami would pencil him in at the hot corner on Opening Day. For his first three seasons, the right-handed hitter was a productive player on both sides of the ball. He hit at an above-average level every year between 2018-20, showing roughly average plate discipline and contact skills with quality hard contact numbers. Miami’s cavernous ballpark didn’t do him many favors from a home run perspective but he topped 30 doubles in both 2018 and ’19.

Overall, Anderson hit .266/.350/.436 in just over 1400 plate appearances through his first three full seasons. He paired that quality offense with average to slightly above par marks at the hot corner from public defensive metrics. While he wasn’t a star, Anderson looked the part of a solid regular who could factor into the Miami lineup at least throughout his arbitration seasons.

The past two years have been disappointing, though, largely thanks to injuries. Anderson missed extended chunks of the 2021 campaign with a pair of subluxations in his left shoulder. In 67 games when healthy enough to play, he managed only a .249/.337/.378 line. He had another pair of injured list stints last season — first for lower back spasms in June, then a six-week absence late in the summer for another left shoulder issue. Anderson appeared in 98 games but put up a career-worst .222/.311/.346 line through 383 trips to the plate.

Over the past two years, he’s hit a below-average .233/.321/.359 through 647 plate appearances. His strikeouts have gone up slightly but the greater concern is the lack of damage he’s done on contact. Anderson’s hard contact percentage has dipped a bit from its 2018-19 peak. He’s collected a combined 25 doubles over the past two seasons after excelling at hitting the gaps for his first few years against MLB pitching. In the wake of that diminished production, Miami non-tendered him to kick off this winter instead of bringing him back on an arbitration salary projected around $5.2MM.

Once he hit free agency, Anderson became an intriguing buy-low target for other clubs. It’d certainly appear as though his production has been adversely affected by the shoulder concerns that have sent him to the IL a few times over the past couple years. The Brewers will hope an offseason of rest and a change of scenery will allow him to put his recent struggles behind him and recapture some of his early-career promise.

In addition to his roughly average defense at third base, Anderson has ample experience in the corner outfield. He’s played over 1500 MLB innings as an outfielder, with almost all of that work coming in right field. Public metrics have been split on his work on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved has credited him as eight runs better than average in the outfield over the course of his career. Statcast, on the other hand, has pegged him seven runs below par.

The Brewers presumably take the more favorable view of Anderson’s outfield glovework. Luis Urías is fairly well established as the third baseman in Milwaukee. Anderson offers some extra cover at the hot corner but has his clearest path to playing time in right field. Christian Yelich will man left field, while the Brewers looked set to turn center and right field over to Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor, respectively. Mitchell played well late in his rookie season but has only 28 MLB games under his belt. Taylor connected on 17 home runs while playing plus defense last year, earning a semi-regular role. Yet he also hit .233 with a below-average .286 on-base percentage, raising some questions about his ability to handle the offensive demands of an everyday right field job.

Anderson won’t necessarily bump Taylor from the starting lineup, but he adds another option to the mix for manager Craig Counsell. His right-handed bat also offers some extra balance to a lefty-swinging first base/designated hitter tandem of Jesse Winker and Rowdy Tellez, though Anderson himself has thus far fared better without the platoon advantage in his career.

On a one-year contract, Anderson is set to return to free agency next winter after surpassing the six-years service threshold during the 2023 campaign. Once finalized, Anderson will become the third major league signee of the offseason for Milwaukee. Wade Miley inked a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee, while outfielder Blake Perkins is on a pre-arbitration salary having never before played in the majors. Before accounting for Anderson’s money, Milwaukee projects for a 2023 payroll around $117MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The club opened last season in the $132MM range, so there should still be room for more lower-cost additions for general manager Matt Arnold and his front office.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Outright Kyle Garlick, Oliver Ortega

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Twins outfielder Kyle Garlick and reliever Oliver Ortega each went unclaimed on waivers, according to an announcement from the club’s communications director Dustin Morse (Twitter link). Both players have been outrighted to Triple-A St. Paul and will receive non-roster invitations to MLB Spring Training.

Garlick was designated for assignment last Wednesday as the corresponding move to accommodate Carlos Correa’s return. It’s the second outright of his career, which would’ve given him the right to test minor league free agency. The club announcement that he’ll be in big league camp suggests he’s instead chosen to accept the assignment.

That’s not too surprising a call, as the righty-hitting outfielder had signed a $750K contract to avoid arbitration earlier in the offseason. That’s barely above the MLB minimum salary but quite likely locked in more money than he’d have received if he landed a minor league contract with another organization. Refusing the outright assignment to test free agency would’ve required Garlick to relinquish that agreed-upon salary, so he’ll instead try to work his way back onto the roster in Spring Training or during the regular season.

Garlick, 31 next week, is a platoon outfielder. He’s played for the Dodgers, Phillies and Twins over parts of four big league campaigns, the last two of which have been spent in Minnesota. He’s connected on 13 home runs while slugging .538 through 186 MLB plate appearances against left-handed pitching, with that power more than offsetting a modest .301 on-base percentage. Productive as he’s been with the platoon advantage, the California native owns just a .203/.258/.324 line in 159 trips against right-handed pitching.

Ortega has never pitched for the Twins. He just landed with the organization two weeks ago via waiver claim from the Angels. Minnesota DFA him a few days thereafter upon acquiring A.J. Alexy from the Nationals, and they succeeded in running him through waivers. Ortega has never before been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service time, meaning he did not have the ability to test free agency.

The right-hander has appeared at the MLB level in each of the past two seasons with the Halos. Ortega has thrown 43 1/3 innings over 35 career appearances, pitching to a 3.95 ERA. He’s paired that with a modest 19.8% strikeout rate and elevated 10.7% walk percentage, although he’s racked up grounders on nearly 56% of batted balls.

Ortega has also logged 37 2/3 Triple-A innings over the last couple years. He’s only managed a 5.37 ERA at the top minor league level, while his 24% strikeout rate is better than that of his MLB work. Ortega averages roughly 96 MPH on his fastball and still has a pair of option years remaining. If he reclaims his spot on the 40-man roster at any point during the season, the Twins can freely move him between Minneapolis and St. Paul as a depth reliever.

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

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The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

Marlins Have Shown Interest In Aroldis Chapman

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The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Aroldis Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Miami becomes the first team known to have checked in on the seven-time All-Star reliever this offseason, though Heyman suggests there are multiple clubs in the mix.

While the Fish are apparently keeping an eye on Chapman, it’s not clear how strong their interest is. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported this afternoon the Marlins hadn’t put forth a formal offer. According to the Herald, Chapman is hoping to sign with a team in the relatively near future and has been working out in the Miami area, where he lives.

One of the sport’s best relievers for more than a decade, Chapman remained a valuable late-game arm as recently as 2021. He secured an All-Star nod that season and provided the Yankees with a 3.36 ERA through 56 1/3 innings. His walk and home run numbers were a bit alarming but the overall results were solid. New York trusted him enough to give him the ninth inning, where he saved 30 games in 34 attempts.

Had Chapman hit free agency coming off that season, he’d likely have been in line for a solid multi-year pact. The big southpaw had easily the worst season of his career in 2022, sending him to the open market with his value at a low ebb. Chapman posted a 4.46 ERA across 36 1/3 innings, the first year in which he’d allowed more than four earned runs per nine. He walked 17.5% of opposing hitters, the second-highest rate of his career and the loftiest clip of any reliever with 30+ innings pitched last year.

Chapman paired the abundance of free passes with the lowest strikeout percentage of his career. He fanned 26.9% of batters faced, the first time he’d punched out fewer than 30% of opponents. Even that diminished mark for Chapman was still firmly better than average, however. That’s also true of his fastball velocity. His heater sat at 97.5 MPH, a lower figure compared to his peak when he routinely averaged north of 100 MPH. Yet even that version of Chapman was among the sport’s hardest-throwing southpaws. New Philadelphia teammates Gregory Soto and José Alvarado were the game’s only lefties who topped Chapman in average fastball speed.

Given the quality of even the “lesser” stuff he’s brandishing, Chapman could certainly right the ship and reemerge as a quality high-leverage piece. His 2022 issues weren’t limited to his on-field inconsistency though. The 34-year-old (35 next month) had a pair of stints on the injured list. He missed time early in the year to Achilles tendinitis before a late-season injured list stint that arose when a tattoo got infected. That led to some frustration from Yankees brass, and New York left Chapman off their playoff rosters entirely after he didn’t report to a team workout shortly before the start of the postseason.

That certainly seemed to bring an unceremonious end to Chapman’s generally productive seven-year tenure in the Bronx. There was never much doubt he’d catch on elsewhere. Part of a left-handed relief class that has bizarrely lagged the rest of the free agent market, Chapman lingers in free agency alongside the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore and Brad Hand.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins are broadly surveying the market for potential relief help. The Herald reiterates the team’s previously-reported interest in former Cardinals closer Alex Reyes, who continues to work his way back from last May’s shoulder surgery. Jackson and Mish write that Reyes is hopeful of signing with Miami. He’d also be a high-risk upside flier considering his recent health history, though Reyes is far younger than Chapman and throws right-handed. The Fish already have a trio of southpaws — Tanner Scott, Steven Okert and Richard Bleier — locked into their bullpen, so they don’t necessarily have to narrow down targets based on handedness.

Blue Jays Outright Junior Fernandez

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The Blue Jays announced that reliever Junior Fernández has gone unclaimed on waivers. He’s been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo. He’d been designated for assignment last week after Toronto finalized the acquisition of starter Zach Thompson from Pittsburgh.

Fernández has bounced around a bit over the past few months. Initially an amateur signee of the Cardinals in 2014, he’d spent his entire career in the St. Louis organization until being designated for assignment last September. Fernández landed with the division-rival Pirates on waivers and finished the 2022 season there, making three appearances down the stretch. At season’s end, Pittsburgh designated him for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for prospects they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft.

The 25-year-old then landed with the Yankees and Blue Jays on successive waiver claims. His stay on the Toronto 40-man lasted less than a week, with Fernández claimed on January 5 and DFA five days later. Now that Toronto has succeeded in running him through waivers, he’ll remain in the organization as upper minors depth. Fernández has never previously been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service time, meaning he doesn’t have the ability to elect minor league free agency.

Fernández has appeared at the MLB level in parts of the last four seasons. The righty has thrown 54 innings across 50 outings, compiling a 5.17 ERA. He’s induced grounders on nearly half the batted balls he’s allowed but paired that with a mediocre 18.7% strikeout percentage and lofty 13.9% walk rate.

While he’s yet to find much consistent success, it’s easy to see why multiple teams have given Fernández a look over the past few months. He averaged 98.7 MPH on his sinker and 88.9 MPH on his slider during his 16 big league outings last year. That velocity hasn’t translated into many strikeouts but has gotten a decent number of swings and misses; opponents have whiffed at 13.5% of the pitches he’s thrown throughout his MLB career, a rate that’s roughly two points higher than average.

Fernández figures to get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training. Assuming he doesn’t break camp with the big league team, he’ll report to Buffalo. Owner of a 4.12 ERA and quality 27% strikeout rate through 83 career Triple-A innings, he’ll be an interesting bullpen depth flier for the Jays. He is out of minor league option years, however. That means if the Jays promote him to the majors at any point, they’ll either have to keep him in the big leagues or again make him available to other teams via trade or waivers.

Scott Boras Discusses Carlos Correa’s Free Agency Saga

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The league’s biggest story over the past month has been the winding saga involving Carlos Correa’s free agency. The two-time All-Star had agreements with the Giants and Mets each fall through after the teams raised concerns about the status of his right ankle during their physical examinations. After weeks of twists and turns, Correa returned to the Twins — where he’d spent the 2022 campaign.

Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, addressed the situation in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today over the weekend. The agent expressed frustration with the Mets, telling Nightengale the New York club relied upon the same doctor who had raised concerns with Correa’s ankle while consulting for the Giants. The shortstop himself said the same last week in an interview with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Both USA Today and Dan Martin/Jon Heyman of the New York Post each wrote over the weekend that Dr. Robert Anderson — a Wisconsin-based foot/ankle specialist who also has ample experience working with NFL players — was the orthopedist who consulted with team physicians for both San Francisco and New York.

“I don’t understand the Mets,” Boras told Nightengale. “I gave them all of the information. We had them talk to four doctors. They knew the issue the Giants had. And yet, they still call the same doctor the Giants used for his opinion. There was no new information. So why negotiate a contract if you were going to rely on the same doctor? It was different with the Giants because a doctor had an opinion they didn’t know about. But the Mets had notice of this. They knew the opinion of the Giants. So why did you negotiate when you know this thing in advance?”

Correa’s camp pivoted quickly to the Mets after the agreement with the Giants fell through. That wasn’t the case when New York expressed concerns with the physical. Boras and the Mets spent nearly two weeks in exclusive negotiations, with the team seeking drastic modification of the original 12-year, $315MM agreement.

As Heyman first reported last week, the Mets’ new proposal involved a guaranteed $157.5MM over six years, exactly slicing the initial agreement in half. The deal would’ve come with an additional six years and $157.5MM thereafter in conditional money, with Nightengale writing the Mets wanted Correa to take a physical at the conclusion of each of the final six seasons. Nightengale reports that Correa’s camp offered language that would’ve allowed the Mets to reduce their commitment in the event of a right ankle issue that cost him two months of action and a provision that would’ve allowed the team to void the deal if Correa missed 120+ days over a two-year span because of an ankle injury. Whatever the specifics under discussion, the sides clearly couldn’t settle upon a satisfactory compromise.

With talks having reached a stalemate, Boras opened up lines of communications with other teams in early January. Correa’s camp reached agreement with the Twins late last Monday on a six-year, $200MM guarantee that contains another four club/vesting options that could max the contract out at $270MM over ten years. Correa passed his physical with Minnesota, and the team made the deal official on Wednesday morning.

Neither the Giants nor the Mets have been able to offer much publicly on their reasons behind stepping away from their agreements. Officials with both clubs have noted that HIPAA privacy protections prevent them from revealing many specifics about player health. Both teams released brief statements after their deals fell through noting they were unable to come to agreements and wishing Correa the best. However, Andy Martino of SNY reported shortly before talks with the Mets collapsed that team officials had become “very frustrated” with the status of negotiations.

In the end, it all makes for little more than an historical footnote. Correa will be a Twin for at least the better part of the 2020’s, with Minnesota betting on the long-term stability of his ankle. The Giants and Mets will roll with Brandon Crawford and Francisco Lindor, respectively, at shortstop while sticking with previous in-house options around the infield.

Royals Hoping For Incentive-Laden Deal With Zack Greinke

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The Royals have made a pair of relatively low-cost additions to their rotation this offseason. Ryan Yarbrough inked a $3MM guarantee in mid-December, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM commitment a couple weeks later.

Those veteran starters join younger, in-house hurlers like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Max Castillo and Kris Bubic in the rotation mix for first-year skipper Matt Quatraro. It also raises the possibility that Kansas City’s top free agent of the winter, Zack Greinke, heads elsewhere. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that while Kansas City remains open to bringing Grienke back, the six-time All-Star would likely have to take an incentive-laden contract to return. Such a deal would have a relatively low base salary that’d allow him to unlock bonuses at various innings thresholds.

At the start of November, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Greinke was planning to return to the majors for a 20th season. Heyman wrote at the time Kansas City was hoping to bring the former Cy Young winner back. There was no indication then anything between the Royals and Greinke’s representatives at Excel Sports Management was close. No other team has been substantively linked to the right-hander throughout the offseason.

Greinke began his professional career with K.C. as the sixth overall pick in the 2002 draft. He starred in Kansas City not long after debuting at age 20 in 2004, going on to win the Cy Young after leading the majors with a 2.16 ERA a few years later. Greinke spent parts of seven seasons with the Royals before being dealt to the Brewers in a 2010-11 offseason blockbuster. He’d spend the next decade solidifying a strong Hall of Fame résumé while pitching for Milwaukee, the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to free agency last winter.

Kansas City brought Greinke back on a one-year, $13MM guarantee that contained an additional $2MM in potential incentives. Teams like the Twins and Tigers reportedly showed strong interest as well, but Greinke relished the opportunity to return to his original organization.

During his return season to Kaufmann Stadium, the 39-year-old threw 137 innings over 26 starts. He posted a solid 3.68 ERA, largely on the strength of his typically excellent control. Greinke only walked 4.6% of batters faced, the 13th-lowest mark among 140 pitchers with 100+ innings. No pitcher within that group had a lower strikeout percentage than Greinke’s 12.5% rate, while his 7.3% striking strike rate is fourth from the bottom. Greinke’s fastball now sits around 89 MPH and he’s a pitch-to-contact control artist.

While he’s now best suited for back-of-the-rotation work, there’s little question Greinke is still a major league caliber hurler. He hasn’t had an ERA above 4.16 in any of the last six seasons. He had a pair of injured list stints related to forearm discomfort last year but still managed to top 25 starts for the 14th consecutive 162-game season. On top of the value he could bring to younger pitchers in the clubhouse, he remains a solid innings eater for teams seeking to bolster their back end.

Kansas City could fit Greinke onto the roster even after bringing in Yarbrough and Lyles. Only Singer has firmly seized a rotation role among the team’s young starters. Yarbrough has struggled for the past couple seasons and could fairly easily move to long relief himself. The bigger question seems to be finances. The Royals presently project for a payroll in the $86MM range, per Roster Resource. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged them around $95MM to start last season, but K.C. general manager J.J. Picollo indicated at the outset of the offseason the club was dealing with budgetary limitations.

Greinke is one of the top starters who remains unsigned. Aside from Michael Wacha, no free agent starter who hasn’t agreed to terms is coming off a better 2022 campaign. Perhaps Greinke is willing to take an incentive-laden deal to return to K.C. — particularly given his strong track record of staying healthy and amassing plenty of innings — but Rosenthal’s report suggests it wouldn’t be a surprise if another club is willing to beat whatever guarantee the Royals put on the table.

Travis Shaw Announces Retirement

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Former MLB infielder Travis Shaw took to Twitter on Monday to announce his retirement from playing. The left-handed hitter appeared at the game’s highest level in each of the last eight seasons.

“For the last eight years, I’ve been blessed to live out my childhood dreams of playing Major League Baseball,” Shaw wrote. “But today, that dream comes to an end! 12 years ago, being a 9th-round pick, I would never have imagined what this game provided me. The memories will last a lifetime. To everyone that made an impact on my career (the list is endlessly long), I will forever be indebted to you! As this chapter closes, the only two words that come to mind is THANK YOU!”

As Shaw mentioned, he entered the professional ranks as a ninth-round pick in 2011. Selected by the Red Sox out of Kent State, he signed for $110K. Within a couple seasons, he began to appear at the back half of Baseball America’s top 30 prospects in the Boston system. He hit well in the minors and debuted at age 25 in May 2015. He hit the ground running over 65 games as a rookie, putting together a .270/.327/.487 line with 13 home runs.

That earned Shaw an extended look on Boston’s 2016 squad. Pablo Sandoval missed most of that season with shoulder surgery, freeing up the hot corner for Shaw. He didn’t quite maintain his rookie form, posting a .242/.306/.421 line through 530 plate appearances. The following winter, the Sox dealt Shaw to Milwaukee for reliever Tyler Thornburg.

The move panned out for the Brew Crew, who immediately installed Shaw as their primary third baseman. He took well to Milwaukee’s favorable hitting environment, topping 30 home runs in each of his first two seasons. He combined for 63 longballs between 2017-18, putting together a cumulative .258/.347/.498 line with a very strong 11.6% walk percentage. Shaw played in just over half the team’s games in 2019 but saw his production fall to a .157/.281/.270 mark.

From that point forward, Shaw settled in as a depth corner infielder and bench bat. He played the shortened 2020 season with the Blue Jays before returning to Milwaukee for the start of 2021. After struggling in his second stint with the Brewers, he landed back in Boston via release waivers. Shaw found a brief glimpse of peak form in 28 games for the Sox late in the ’21 campaign. He re-signed on a minor league deal during the lockout and made the Opening Day roster. Shaw played in seven games early last season but didn’t reach base in 19 plate appearances. After going unclaimed on waivers, he hit free agency last May and doesn’t plan to seek out other opportunities.

Shaw played in 733 major league games. He tallied just under 2700 plate appearances and hit .237/.319/.437 with 114 homers, 127 doubles, 366 runs batted in and 310 runs scored. Shaw had the aforementioned two 30-homer campaigns and twice eclipsed 30 doubles. His career offensive production checked in right around league average, as measured by wRC+. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference valued Shaw’s career around eight wins above replacement, with much of that value concentrated in his strong first two seasons in Milwaukee. MLBTR congratulates Shaw on a fine playing career and wishes him the best in retirement.

Red Sox, Jorge Alfaro Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are in agreement with free agent backstop Jorge Alfaro on a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He’ll receive a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster and would have the ability to opt out and return to free agency on both June 1 and July 1 if he hasn’t yet been called up.

Alfaro, 29, has played in each of the last seven big league campaigns. A top prospect in the Rangers’ and Phillies’ farm systems, he went from Texas to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels deadline blockbuster in 2015. Alfaro debuted with Philadelphia in 2016 and would spend parts of the following two seasons as their primary catcher. He flashed the massive power and arm strength that had made him such a highly-regarded minor league talent but struck out in 35.2% of his plate appearances as a Phillie.

After the 2018 season, Philadelphia packaged him with Sixto Sánchez to the division-rival Marlins for J.T. Realmuto. Miami had hoped Alfaro would step in as a big league ready replacement for their outgoing star catcher. Alfaro was their primary catcher for the next three seasons but continued to perform at an inconsistent level, largely thanks to his strikeout issues.

The Padres took a shot on the Colombian-born player in a minor trade last offseason. Alfaro cracked the Opening Day roster after a massive Spring Training and went on to appear in just over half the team’s games. He tallied 274 plate appearances, hitting .246/.285/.383 with seven home runs and a 35.8% strikeout percentage. At season’s end, San Diego non-tendered him rather than retain him for a projected $3.6MM arbitration salary.

In a little under 500 MLB games, Alfaro is a .256/.305/.396 hitter. He’s picked up 47 homers and made plenty of hard contact. His on-base numbers have been muted by his subpar strikeout and walk profile, though, as he’s drawn free passes 4.2% of the time while fanning in over 34% of his trips. It’s been a somewhat similar boom or bust profile defensively. Alfaro has a top-tier throwing arm and has cut down a solid 27.5% of attempted basestealers throughout his career. Yet he’s also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall receiver, per the metrics at Statcast and Baseball Prospectus.

While Alfaro’s overall body of work has been up and down, he represents a low-risk upside play for a Boston club that has an uncertain catching mix. Reese McGuire and Connor Wong currently look set for a loose platoon arrangement behind the dish. They’re the only backstops on the Red Sox’s 40-man roster, and neither has an extended track record as an MLB regular. Alfaro’s an experienced depth option who can battle for a job in Spring Training and/or start the season at Triple-A Worcester as injury insurance.

Alfaro has over five years of major league service time, meaning he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues. If he cracks the MLB roster at any point, Boston will either have to keep him in the majors or make him available to other clubs via trade or waivers. If Alfaro spends 89 days on the MLB active roster or injured list next season, he’d surpass the six-year service threshold and qualify for free agency next offseason. If he’s on the roster for 88 days or fewer overall but on the 40-man at season’s end, he’d be eligible for arbitration for the 2024 campaign.

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