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Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market

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Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.

Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.

Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.

With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.

It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.

Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea

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The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.

Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.

That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.

It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.

That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.

Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.

Cubs, Brailyn Marquez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Brailyn Marquez, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. He’d been non-tendered last month, removing him from the 40-man roster.

After a couple weeks on the open market, Marquez returns to the only organization he’s known. Signed out the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 international amateur period, Marquez blossomed into one of the game’s most talented pitching prospects. Owner of a fastball that worked into the upper 90s, he appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects league-wide in both 2020 and ’21. Shaky control led to some speculation he could wind up in the bullpen as a potential high-leverage reliever.

Unfortunately, injuries have thrown off that once-promising career. Marquez made his big league debut with one appearance during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch since then. He’s spent each of the past two years on the minor league injured list, and he underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder in June. Chicago decided at year’s end to cut him from the 40-man roster as a result.

Still just 24 in January, Marquez will try to get back onto the roster in 2023. He clearly has a fair bit of potential when healthy, but it remains to be seen what kind of form he’ll show after the rehab from the shoulder procedure.

A’s Acquire Chad Smith From Rockies

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The A’s have acquired righty Chad Smith from the Rockies, the team announced. Pitching prospect Jeff Criswell heads to Colorado in return. The A’s 40-man roster count is up to 38, while Colorado’s tally drops to 38.

Smith made his big league debut this past season. He was called upon 15 times in relief by Colorado skipper Bud Black, tossing 18 innings. Smith allowed 15 runs in that limited work. He had a slightly above-average 27.1% strikeout rate and a solid 11.6% swinging strike percentage, averaging 95.6 MPH on his sinker. Yet throwing strikes proved problematic, as he walked an untenable 17.6% of batters faced.

Originally a Marlins draftee, Smith has played parts of six seasons in the minors since coming out of Ole Miss in 2016. He’d spent the past two years at the upper levels of the Colorado organization, posting strong numbers for Triple-A Albuquerque in 2022. Smith worked to a 3.09 ERA in 35 innings for the Isotopes — a strong achievement in one of the more hitter-friendly environments in pro ball. He fanned over 29% of opponents while inducing ground-balls at a massive 60% clip in that time. Smith’s 8.1% walk rate there was solid, but he’s battled control problems in the minors earlier in his career.

The 27-year-old has less than one year of major league service time, and he still has two minor league options remaining. He’ll give the A’s an affordable depth option who could factor into the middle innings and/or pitch for Triple-A Las Vegas if he holds his spot on the 40-man roster.

In return, the Rockies add a 23-year-old arm to the farm system. Criswell was Oakland’s second-round draft choice in 2020 after three seasons at the University of Michigan. The right-hander briefly made it to Triple-A this past season, although he spent more of the year at High-A and in Double-A. Over three levels, he worked 118 1/3 innings of 4.03 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 23.8% clip against a 9% walk rate. The 6’4″ hurler was ranked the #16 prospect in a relatively shallow Oakland farm system by Baseball America midseason; he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of next season if not added to the 40-man roster before then.

No Decision Yet On Aaron Judge

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4:35pm: Giants CEO Larry Baer says there’s currently “nothing to report” on the Judge situation (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post).

4:28pm: Heyman now says the Giants haven’t heard a decision on Judge (on Twitter). Andy Martino of SNY tweeted that as of 4:22pm CST, the Yankees were not informed they were out of the running.

4:26pm: Defending AL MVP Aaron Judge “appears headed” to the Giants, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. San Francisco has reportedly offered Judge a deal in the $360MM range. To this point, however, it appears at least the Yankees still remain in the mix.

Wolfe: Senga Has Received Five-Plus Year Offers

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Star Japanese hurler Kodai Senga is one of the most intriguing entrants on this offseason’s free agent market. The right-hander is arguably the second-best pitcher remaining behind Carlos Rodón, and he’s already been tied to almost a third of the league in various reports.

Reflecting that wide interest, Senga’s agent Joel Wolfe told reporters at the Winter Meetings this afternoon his client has been offered deals of five and six years (via Kyle Glaser of Baseball America). Predictably, Wolfe didn’t divulge salary figures but suggested Senga’s prioritizing the opportunity to join a win-now club. Earlier in the offseason, Wolfe told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago the right-hander was hoping to land in a big market.

There’s certainly a risk in committing five or six seasons to a pitcher without any track record against big league hitters. At the same time, it’s not hard to understand how the bidding has apparently worked its way to that level. Senga has a fantastic track record at the highest level in Japan, working to a 2.59 ERA in parts of 11 NPB seasons. He’s coming off 144 frames of 1.94 ERA ball, striking out an above-average 27.5% of opponents. He walked batters at an average 8.6% clip.

According to scouting reports, Senga has a fastball that sits in the mid-upper 90’s and an excellent splitter that serves as his top secondary offering. Evaluators have raised some concerns about his breaking ball and the consistency of his strike-throwing effectiveness, but he bolsters a high-octane top two pitches and has a long track record of success at NPB’s highest level. Headed into his age-30 season, he’ll step right into an MLB rotation, with his signing team surely at least anticipating mid-rotation caliber production.

The starting pitching market has picked up in recent days, with Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Zach Eflin and Andrew Heaney all coming off the board on multi-year deals. Beyond Rodón, Senga leads a group with Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon as the next tier of free agent starters. Senga is the youngest of that group and figures to land the longest deal; it’s quite possible he’ll secure the largest guarantee as a result, even if his annual salaries may check in a bit below those of Bassitt and Eovaldi.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted Senga to land a five-year, $75MM contract. He’s a true international free agent, so a signing team won’t owe any compensation to his former NPB club, the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres, Mets, Giants, Yankees and Mariners are among the teams that have been linked to him this offseason. Wolfe told reporters there are currently between a half-dozen and a dozen teams still involved in the market (via Glaser).

Padres Offered Trea Turner $342MM Deal

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Dec. 6, 12:35pm: The Padres offered Turner a guarantee of $342MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

11:51am: The Padres’ offer to Turner was not only higher than the offer he accepted from Philadelphia but would have made Turner the highest-paid infielder in baseball, topping Francisco Lindor’s $341MM deal with the Mets, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The exact length of the contract, potential deferrals, etc. aren’t known at this time, but it’s a nevertheless jarring follow-up revelation in the wake of the Phillies’ deal with Turner. Lindor’s contract is currently the third-largest guarantee in Major League history.

While Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported in the aftermath of the Padres’ failed bid that the team is no longer pursuing shortstops, Olney writes that the Padres have at least been in touch with Bogaerts, echoing a similar sentiment reported last night by Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

More broadly, Olney reports that the Padres are “very serious about trying to do all they can” to win the franchise’s first World Series, which raises the question as to whether San Diego might emerge as a legitimate entrant in the bidding for Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon and other top remaining free agents.

Dec. 5: The Phillies made the biggest splash of the offseason to date, agreeing to terms on an 11-year deal with Trea Turner this afternoon. Once finalized, it’ll make the two-time All-Star the 10th player in MLB history to land a contract worth at least $300MM.

Massive as the contract was, it apparently wasn’t the highest offer the shortstop had on the table. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports the Padres made an offer which topped the one Turner accepted from Philadelphia. Specifics of the proposal aren’t clear, but Gelb adds the gap was wide enough San Diego’s offer would’ve translated into more money even after adjusting for California’s higher state income tax rate than Pennsylvania’s.

In the months leading up to Turner’s free agency, there was a fair bit of speculation about whether geography would play a role in his decision. He’s a Florida native who went to college at North Carolina State. His wife Kristen is from New Jersey. Turner reportedly expressed a desire to remain on the East Coast when the Nationals traded him to the Dodgers at the 2021 deadline, and while he downplayed geographic preferences in free agency, there seems to have been some truth behind the rumblings he could prefer heading back across the country. Turner also rejoins longtime Washington teammate Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long in Philadelphia.

On the one hand, losing out on a star player even after making the highest offer has to be a tough blow for San Diego. Yet it also illustrates the possibility for the franchise to continue pushing chips in as they aggressively seek to augment one of the game’s more talented rosters. One could argue shortstop is more of a luxury buy for the Friars anyhow, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth all on hand as middle infield options. Yet San Diego was willing to put forth one of the largest contracts in league history to try to add another star to the lineup.

San Diego has also been tied to Xander Bogaerts this offseason. That they were the high bidder on Turner doesn’t inherently mean they’ll top the market for Bogaerts instead, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they pivot in that direction now that their primary target is off the board. The Padres have exceeded the luxury tax threshold in each of the past two seasons, and they’d have to do so again to add any of the star free agent shortstops. Roster Resource estimates their CBT ledger around $3MM below the base tax threshold of $233MM, and signing Turner for an average annual value around the $27.3MM he received would’ve pushed them into the second tier of penalization. That’d have involved a 50% tax on the first $20MM — an extra $10MM — and further taxes from that point forward, but it was apparently a bill owner Peter Seidler was content to foot for another star. How or if they reallocate that money, either in a pursuit of Bogaerts or in more directly addressing areas of need like first base and the corner outfield, remains to be seen.

As for the Phils, they now anticipate looking to the pitching market after adding to an already loaded position player core. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets the middle of the rotation and back of the bullpen are target areas for the Phils, who now aren’t far off the base luxury tax tier themselves. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters this evening the club is looking for a setup-type reliever who could mix and match with Seranthony Domínguez, Connor Brogdon and José Alvarado at the end of games (via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer).

While the Phillies certainly aren’t taking their foot off the gas, Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of adding another player who’d rejected a qualifying offer. The Phils forfeited their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s amateur draft plus $1MM in international signing bonus space for Turner, who’d turned down a QO with the Dodgers. They’d lose their third and sixth picks to sign another qualified free agent, and Dombrowski told Coffey and others the team doesn’t have “much appetite” for that kind of pick forfeiture.

Latest On Cardinals’ Offseason Priorities

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The Cardinals have had a quiet offseason, with minor league infielder Jose Fermín being their only outside acquisition to date. That’s certain to change in the coming days and weeks, as St. Louis will undoubtedly bring in a catcher. They could look to the rotation and perhaps to the middle infield or corner outfield markets as well, although they have a number of position players on a typically deep St. Louis roster.

Entering the offseason, there was a fair bit of speculation the Cards could partake in the loaded free agent shortstop class. There’s not much indication they’ve dived deeply into that market, although Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon they’ve at least checked in with free agent options at the position. Still, it doesn’t seem that’s a huge priority, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak reiterated this evening the team is comfortable with Tommy Edman as their primary shortstop (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). The top St. Louis executive went on to note the team likes Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman as second base possibilities.

That’s a sentiment Mozeliak has expressed a few times in the offseason’s early going. Asked about the possibility of adding a shortstop last week, Mozeliak replied that Edman is “is a very, very good shortstop” (link via Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic). While he’s never expressly ruled out an acquisition at the position, Mozeliak has extolled Edman when given the chance. The switch-hitting infielder is a Gold Glove caliber defender at both middle infield positions, and he’s coming off a quality .265/.324/.400 line through 630 plate appearances.

Edman could certainly move back to second base, but the presence of Donovan and Gorman gives St. Louis plenty of options. The former finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting this year after posting an excellent .394 on-base percentage through his first 126 MLB games. The latter had strikeout concerns but connected on 14 home runs in 89 games as a rookie after mashing in Triple-A. Neither Donovan nor Gorman is a strong defensive fit for up-the-middle work, but that’s perhaps not as significant a concern for a St. Louis team that otherwise has plus defenders (Paul Goldschmidt, Edman and Nolan Arenado) manning the dirt.

Paul DeJong also remains under contract, due $11MM and headed into the last guaranteed season of his deal. The former All-Star is coming off a third straight well below-average offensive season that kicked him down the depth chart, but the front office has consistently maintained they expected he’d bounce back. After a .157/.245/.286 showing in 77 MLB games in 2022, DeJong can’t be counted on for everyday reps on a win-now team. Yet it’s possible he sticks on the roster as a glove-first complement to Gorman and Donovan in the middle infield.

Mozeliak suggested DeJong is likely to be with St. Louis heading into 2023, telling reporters tonight (via Jones) they’re “not ready to cut bait” on the 29-year-old. He indicated the Cards have received some trade interest in DeJong — presumably from teams asking they’d pay down most of the contract while accepting a meager return — but suggested that’s not a course of action the Cards plan to take.

It seems a long shot the Cardinals end up landing one of the three remaining top shortstops, with more motivated teams in the bidding. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets the team could circle back to that market if they find their desired catching upgrade on the trade market. Dansby Swanson, who’s expected to command a lighter contract than either of Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts, would be the likely target in that event, Goold suggests. It seems any full-fledged pursuit of a shortstop for St. Louis would first be conditional on affordably solidifying the situation behind the plate, and it’s still not clear the team would consider a marquee investment at the position to be especially appealing.

Padres, D-Backs, Guardians Among Teams Interested In Christian Vazquez

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8:08pm: The Diamondbacks and Giants are also in the mix for Vázquez, Abraham reports (on Twitter). The Boston Globe writer also suggests he’s likely to find at least three years and floats the possibility of a four-year pact materializing.

4:07pm: Christian Vázquez is the second-best catcher available in free agency this offseason, the top option for teams not willing to meet a much loftier asking price and surrender a draft choice for Willson Contreras. It’s little surprise the two-time World Series winner is generating a fair bit of attention from clubs, with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reporting the Padres, Guardians and Twins are all in the mix. Rosenthal also lists the Cubs and Cardinals — each of whom has been previously linked to the veteran backstop — and the incumbent Astros as teams in the bidding.

None of the new suitors is all that surprising, as they could each stand to upgrade behind the dish. That’s arguably not as pressing a concern for San Diego as it may be for some other teams, as the Friars do have Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as a viable catching tandem. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.

Nola, 33 this month, has spent two-plus seasons in Southern California. He looked like a late-blooming breakout player with the Mariners in 2019-20, leading San Diego to acquire him at the 2020 deadline in a now-regrettable swap that landed Ty France, Taylor Trammell and Andrés Muñoz in Seattle. Nola’s offensive production has dropped off since the trade, and he owns a .254/.327/.348 line in 665 plate appearances as a Padre. That’s fine production for a catcher but it’s not overwhelming, with Vázquez coming off a superior .274/.315/.399 showing. Campusano is a longtime top prospect with a strong Triple-A track record, but he has all of 28 MLB games under his belt.

Pursuing Vázquez could also be a way for the Friars to more indirectly upgrade their roster, as signing a catcher would free them up to market Nola or Campusano in trade talks. The 24-year-old Campusano still has six seasons of remaining club control and would have a fair bit of value on the trade market, able to appeal to win-now clubs and teams with further off contention windows alike. Nola has three seasons of arbitration-eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.2MM salary next season. He’s not as appealing as Campusano but could still attract some attention if the Friars made him available.

The Guardians, meanwhile, are certain to add a catcher this offseason. Austin Hedges hit free agency, leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians have been one of the more frequently mentioned suitors for A’s backstop Sean Murphy, who seems highly likely to be dealt. Vázquez isn’t that caliber of player, but he wouldn’t force the team to surrender any young talent to add him. A highly-regarded game-caller with consistently strong defensive metrics and a plus arm, Vázquez would be a sensible target for a Cleveland team that has prioritized catcher defense.

The Twins have made no secret of their desire to add another catcher to pair with 25-year-old Ryan Jeffers. Both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have spoken of the appeal of bringing in another catcher capable of starting 100-plus games to take some of the responsibility off Jeffers. They’re not so much trying to supplant their internal catcher as find a strong complement to him. Vázquez would surely qualify, although it’s unclear if the Twins are prepared to offer him as many at-bats as he’d like.

Late in the season, Vázquez suggested to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe he’d prioritize finding a primary job in free agency. A longtime #1 catcher in Boston, he took a bit of a backseat to Martín Maldonado during his final couple months in Houston, starting just 23 games in the season’s final two months.

That desire for playing time would seem to reduce the chances Vázquez ends up back in Houston. Maldonado is under contract for another season and beloved for his ability to work with the pitching staff. The Astros have been wary of usurping him as their top catcher, and Rosenthal suggests they’d pursue a Vázquez reunion as part of a broader playing time split with Maldonado. Houston has been strongly linked to Contreras a few times this winter, with the thought that the longtime Cub’s bat plays well enough he could see extended time at designated hitter or in left field in addition to his time behind the plate. That’s less appealing for a glove-first player like Vázquez, who’s a good hitter for a catcher but a below-average offensive threat compared to players at less demanding positions.

There should be more than enough interest for Vázquez to find a #1 job again if that’s indeed his priority. He also looks in position to land a solid payday, as Rosenthal writes he’s likely to find a three-year commitment. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted the MDR Sports Management client for a three-year, $27MM contract.

White Sox Have Discussed Liam Hendriks In Trade Talks

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The White Sox have discussed star closer Liam Hendriks in talks with other teams this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). There’s no indication a deal is especially likely, although it stands to reason a number of clubs would have interest in installing the three-time All-Star into their late-inning mix if Chicago’s amenable to making a trade. Feinsand notes Hendriks’ contract contains a limited no-trade provision that allows him to block a move to five unknown teams.

Hendriks just wrapped a fourth consecutive excellent season. A journeyman depth arm for the first eight seasons of his MLB career, he broke out with a 1.80 ERA in 85 stellar innings for the A’s in 2019. The Australian earned his first All-Star selection that year, and he performed at a similarly excellent level during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. His final two seasons in Oakland saw him put up a 1.79 ERA while holding opponents to a .192/.240/.289 line through 99 games.

Over the 2020-21 offseason, the White Sox signed Hendriks to a $54MM free agent contract. It was technically a three-year guarantee, with Hendriks making $12MM in ’21, $13MM in ’22 and $14MM next season. The 2024 campaign is technically covered by a club option, but both the option price and the buyout are valued at $15MM. It’s a no-brianer to exercise the option then; the only reason for the Sox to opt for the buyout would be if they simply didn’t want Hendriks on the roster, which would probably only happen in the unfortunate event he suffers a serious injury that’d cost him the whole season. If the Sox do trade Hendriks, that option would become guaranteed — although again, that’s largely immaterial.

Hendriks has picked up right where he’d left off on the South Side of Chicago. He’s been selected to the Midsummer Classic in both seasons as a White Sox, and he earned some down-ballot Cy Young support with a 2.54 ERA over 71 frames in 2021. His 2022 campaign was technically his worst in four years, though that’s only a testament to the incredible bar he’d set. The right-hander worked to a 2.81 ERA over 57 2/3 innings, striking out an elite 36.2% of opponents. Hendriks lost a few weeks midseason with an alarming-sounding forearm strain, but he returned without any signs of ill effect. He fanned 35.4% of opponents after the All-Star Break, working to a 3.33 ERA while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball.

While he turns 34 in February, he’s shown no signs of tailing off thus far. Hendriks is due $29MM over the final two seasons of his current contract. As one of the best relievers in the sport, he’d have plenty of appeal on the trade market at that price. The free agent market for late-game arms has both been strong and moved quickly, and the only reliever of Hendriks’ caliber who’d have been available (Edwin Díaz) re-signed with the Mets just before the signing period opened.

That highlights the potential for Hendriks to be a key player on the offseason trade market, but that’d require the White Sox showing an openness to moving him. That his name has surfaced in trade discussions is far from an indication the Sox are actively shopping him, as it’s possible general manager Rick Hahn and his group are simply taking calls from interested clubs out of due diligence.

The White Sox are set on bouncing back from an average 2022 campaign to try to reclaim their spot atop the AL Central. Subtracting Hendriks from the ninth inning would make that more difficult, and it stands to reason they’d only move him for a deal that netted them MLB-ready help elsewhere on the roster. Chicago does have an excellent bullpen that’d still be a strength even without Hendriks, as Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López are all strong late-inning arms. Joe Kelly has the potential to assume high-leverage innings himself, as does young southpaw Garrett Crochet, who’s working back from April 2022 Tommy John surgery.

Chicago has more pressing needs elsewhere on the roster. They signed Mike Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal to fortify the rotation behind Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech, but they could look for another depth arm. Second base is a major question mark, and they could look to add a bat to factor into the corner outfield/designated hitter mix. The Sox didn’t get especially good production from catcher or third base this past season either. Both Yasmani Grandal and Yoán Moncada are under contract and expected to get opportunities to right the ship, but Chicago could theoretically look into either position if the chance presents itself.

Hahn told reporters at last month’s GM Meetings the club was more likely to accomplish any roster reshuffling via trade than free agency. Chicago’s 2023 payroll projection, per Roster Resource, is around $179MM. That’s about $14MM shy of this year’s Opening Day figure, so the Sox should have a bit of financial breathing room, but they may have to look towards the lower tiers of free agency for any pickups. Hahn told reporters this evening the club has to be more open-minded than they were last winter to make any major roster changes after their disappointing 2022 campaign (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).

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