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Rangers Designate Billy McKinney For Assignment

By Leo Morgenstern | July 4, 2025 at 2:59pm CDT

With Evan Carter returning from the bereavement list today, the Rangers have designated Billy McKinney for assignment. It was a quick stint in Arlington for the 30-year-old outfielder.

McKinney signed a minor league contract with the Rangers in May after he was released by the Mets. Following a strong month at Triple-A Round Rock, he got the call to the majors earlier this week when Carter was placed on the bereavement list. He went 1-for-7 with a walk and a run in two games. While he didn’t get much of a chance to prove himself for Texas, his .295/.433/.487 slash line and 137 wRC+ for Round Rock might be enough to convince a team in need of outfield depth or a lefty bench bat to take a chance on him via trade or a waiver claim.

A first-round pick in 2013, McKinney has never been able to live up to that billing. He has, however, carved out a legitimate major league career for himself. He has appeared in the majors each year since 2018, suiting up for the Yankees, Blue Jays, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers, Athletics, Pirates, and Rangers. He also spent time in the Cubs’ minor league system early in his career. Over the past eight years, he has appeared at all three outfield spots as well as first base and DH, playing a total of 323 MLB games. He will look to increase that number once his DFA is resolved.

As for the Rangers, they are surely pleased to have Carter’s hot bat back in their lineup and his glove back in center field. The 22-year-old has an .816 OPS and a 133 wRC+ this season, and a .965 OPS and 173 wRC+ over the past month. He has also compiled 2 DRS and 3 OAA in center field and has yet to make an error all season. Even better, the Rangers are also hoping to have Wyatt Langford back from the injured list this weekend. Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News notes that Langford is eligible to return tomorrow and reports that the young outfielder is already back in the clubhouse ahead of today’s game.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Billy McKinney

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Yankees Place Clarke Schmidt On 15-Day IL With Forearm Tightness

By Leo Morgenstern | July 4, 2025 at 12:08pm CDT

The Yankees have placed starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt on the 15-day injured list with right forearm tightness. In additional pitching transactions, the team optioned Clayton Beeter to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre yesterday and recalled Scott Effross and Jayvien Sandridge this morning.

Schmidt, 29, exited early on Thursday after giving up three runs in three innings against the Blue Jays and later revealed that he has been nursing some tightness in his forearm for a month (per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). He is going for imaging today (per Greg Joyce of the New York Post), which is worrisome enough, but the fact that the team placed him on the IL before his MRI is further cause for concern. Joyce suggests that it is not yet clear if the Yankees will be able to offer an update on Schmidt by the end of the day today.

The right-hander sat out the first three weeks of the season with rotator cuff tendonitis. Upon his return, however, he picked up right where he left off in 2024 (another injury-shortened but nonetheless successful campaign). Through 16 starts this year, Schmidt has pitched to a 3.32 ERA and 4.23 SIERA. Add that to his 16 starts from last year, and you get a 3.07 ERA and 3.97 SIERA through 30 starts and 164 innings. In other words, it’s not hard to see why he’s so important to the middle of the Yankees’ rotation and why losing him to the IL again would be a significant loss for the club.

New York’s rotation was already stretched thin with Gerrit Cole out for the year, Luis Gil out since spring training with a lat strain, and Ryan Yarbrough recently hitting the IL with a strained oblique. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón make for as good of a top two as you’ll find on any AL club, but Will Warren has been wildly inconsistent in his rookie season, and Marcus Stroman only just returned from a long IL stint of his own. The only other healthy starter on the 40-man roster is 29-year-old Allan Winans, who has excelled at Triple-A but has a career 7.38 ERA over 10 MLB games. JT Brubaker can also start, but he has been pitching out of the bullpen this year and has not started in the majors since 2022. According to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the team considers pitching prospect Cam Schlittler a potential option for the rotation in the second half, but it’s unclear if they would call him up sooner. He has been excellent in the minors this season, but this is only his third professional campaign, and he only has five starts at Triple-A under his belt. So, if Schmidt misses significant time – and even if he doesn’t – the Yankees could seek some outside help for the rotation as they look to regain first place in the AL East.

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New York Yankees Transactions Clarke Schmidt

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Cubs Place Jameson Taillon On 15-Day IL With Calf Strain

By Leo Morgenstern | July 4, 2025 at 10:51am CDT

The Cubs are placing starting pitcher Jameson Taillon on the 15-day injured list with a strained right calf. The team revealed the news to reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) this morning and confirmed the transaction shortly thereafter. Jordan Wicks is coming up from the Triple-A Iowa Cubs to take Taillon’s spot on the active roster. However, manager Craig Counsell said that Chris Flexen, not Wicks, is the most likely candidate to temporarily join the rotation (per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score). Flexen has been working as a long reliever this season, but he made 30 starts for the White Sox just last year.

Taillon, 33, suffered the injury while running in a training session and is expected to miss more than a month (per Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times). While he hasn’t been as effective for Chicago as he was last year, there is no doubt the Cubs will miss his reliable presence on the mound every five days. His 95 1/3 innings rank 20th among NL starting pitchers, while his 4.44 ERA (85 ERA+) and 4.24 xERA (32nd percentile) suggest he has been more than serviceable as an inning-eating back-end starter. He hasn’t looked his best recently, with a 10.66 ERA over 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts, so if there is any silver lining to this injury, it is that he will have some time to rest and reset. The Cubs will hope he returns looking more like the guy who pitched to a 3.48 ERA over his first 14 starts.

Wicks, the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2021, has never quite looked comfortable at the MLB level, with a career 5.23 ERA and 4.68 SIERA over 82 2/3 innings from 2023-25. With that said, he has looked sharp over his last handful of outings at Triple-A (16 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 20 K, 3 BB). The 25-year-old will presumably take over Flexen’s low-leverage long-relief gig. Flexen, meanwhile, shouldn’t have too much trouble transitioning back to the rotation. He started five games at Triple-A in April before he was called up to the big league club, pitching to a 3-0 record with a 1.16 ERA and 2.89 FIP. While he has not started in the majors since 2024, he tossed four scoreless innings of relief against the Astros last week, so stretching out shouldn’t be too difficult. Although Flexen was not very effective as a starter in either of the last two seasons, he has more than earned another opportunity with his excellent performance so far in 2025. In 29 innings spread out over 16 appearances, he has given up just two earned runs on 16 hits.

The Cubs have been without Javier Assad (oblique injury) all season, and Justin Steele required season-ending elbow surgery after just four starts. Shota Imanaga also missed significant time earlier this year, but the Cubs were grateful to see him back on the mound last week. Imanaga and the surprisingly dominant Matthew Boyd give Chicago a strong one-two punch atop the rotation, but the back end could be a weak spot until Taillon returns.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Jameson Taillon

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Giants Release Calvin Mitchell

By Leo Morgenstern and Nick Deeds | June 22, 2025 at 8:30am CDT

The Giants have released outfielder Calvin Mitchell, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. He had joined the organization on a minor league contract after he was released by the White Sox in April.

The Pirates took Mitchell, now 26, with the 50th overall pick in the 2017 draft. He played in the organization from 2017-23, and he ranked among the team’s top 25 prospects according to both Baseball America and FanGraphs each year from 2018-21. He was even considered a top-100 prospect in the sport by Baseball Prospectus back in 2019. Mitchell’s big league debut arrived during the 2022 season, and there was plenty of reason for optimism after he slashed .339/.391/.547.

Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to come close to those numbers in the majors. While he got into 69 games for the Pirates with fairly regular playing time, Mitchell hit just .226/.286/.349 with a wRC+ of 77. While his 10-to-15 homer power played as expected in the majors and he walked at a solid 7.8% clip, his strikeout rate jumped to 22.4% during his time in the big leagues. For a player whose profile was built around his ability to make contact, that uptick in strikeouts proved disastrous. A lackluster .276 BABIP certainly didn’t help things either, but whatever the culprit was behind Mitchell’s lackluster offense in that first opportunity in the majors, it has held him back from getting another substantial run in the big leagues ever since.

While Mitchell did return to the majors with the Pirates in 2023, he appeared in just two games and went 0-for-4 with a walk and a strikeout. His Triple-A numbers also took a step back that season, as he hit just .261/.333/.414 across 78 games with Pittsburgh’s Indianapolis affiliate. He was designated for assignment and outrighted off the club’s roster in late September, and since then has bounced between the Padres, White Sox, and Giants organizations without finding a big league opportunity in any organization. While he slashed a respectable .277/.359/.512 in 2024 with Triple-A El Paso last year, this year his numbers at Triple-A have taken a massive nosedive. He’s batting .160/.224/.249 across 50 games between the Giants and White Sox organizations.

Now that Mitchell is on the open market again, he could look for another minor league deal with another organization. On the other hand, at just 26 years old it’s possible he could look to follow in the footsteps of many other players who struggled to establish themselves in the majors and try to forge a career outside of affiliated ball, either overseas in a league like the KBO or NPB, or even in a stateside independent league like the Atlantic League. Given Mitchell’s youth, it’s not hard to imagine him reinventing himself in a new environment and perhaps even returning to the majors at some point in the future as players like Eric Thames and Merrill Kelly have in the past.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Cal Mitchell

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Reds To Promote Chase Burns For MLB Debut

By Leo Morgenstern | June 21, 2025 at 10:24pm CDT

The Reds are planning to select top pitching prospect Chase Burns from Triple-A Louisville, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. He will start against the Yankees on Tuesday in his MLB debut.

Burns, 22, was the second overall pick in last year’s draft. He dominated for Wake Forest in his final year of college play, going 10-1 while striking out 191 batters across 100 innings and pitching to a 2.70 ERA. Coming into 2025, he was widely considered the top prospect in the Reds organization and a top 50 prospect in the game. If possible, the young right-hander has only improved his reputation over his first 13 professional starts. Armed with a fastball that hits triple-digit and one of the nastiest sliders in the minor leagues, Burns has put up a 1.77 ERA, a 36.8% strikeout rate, and a 6.85 strikeout-to-walk ratio between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Although he has shot up through the system at a speed rarely seen, he has yet to ever look overmatched. So, after just two starts at Triple-A, he is already gearing up for his next challenge.

This might seem like an aggressive promotion, but Burns has done everything in his power to earn the opportunity. Meanwhile, the Reds are low on starting pitching depth. Wade Miley landed on the IL yesterday after just three appearances for Cincinnati. He joined Hunter Greene and Carson Spiers, as well as Rhett Lowder, Julian Aguiar, and Brandon Williamson, the three of whom have been out all season. To make matters worse, Nick Martinez has struggled badly in June, and Chase Petty, recalled earlier today, has taken the loss in all three games in which he’s appeared so far in his big league career. Thus, with an ailing big league rotation and Burns excelling in the minors, the Reds are going to give their top prospect a shot in the majors, less than a year after they drafted him. They will have to free up a space for Burns on the active and 40-man rosters prior to his debut.

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Cincinnati Reds Newsstand Transactions Chase Burns

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AL East Notes: Bigge, Kim, Scherzer, Westburg, Gil, Williams, Weaver

By Leo Morgenstern | June 21, 2025 at 9:31pm CDT

In excellent news out of Tampa Bay, right-handed reliever Hunter Bigge is recovering well after undergoing surgery to repair multiple facial fractures (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Bigge was hit in the face by a 105-mph foul ball off the bat of Adley Rutschman while watching Thursday’s game from the Rays’ dugout. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters today (including Topkin) that Bigge has been released from the hospital and returned home. There is no doubt the incident was terrifying, not just for Bigge but for everyone in either dugout at Steinbrenner Field. While Cash acknowledged that raising the screens in front of the dugouts probably isn’t an option, Topkin reports that the skipper will meet with his players to talk about potential adjustments. “We’ll talk through it,” said Cash. “And see what we can do.”

Bigge, 27, has not played since May 1 due to a right lat strain. Through his first 15 games in 2025, the hard-throwing righty pitched to a 2.40 ERA and a 3.99 SIERA. Indeed, he has been highly effective since he came to Tampa Bay as part of the trade return for Isaac Paredes. He has a 2.48 ERA and 3.22 SIERA in 28 appearances with the Rays. He does not yet have a timetable to get back to game action.

In additional Rays news, Ha-Seong Kim appeared in a rehab game yesterday, going 1-for-4 with a walk, two stolen bases, and a run scored. It was his first game in over a week; as Topkin notes, the Rays pulled him off his last rehab assignment on June 12 with right hamstring tightness. Kim’s strong offensive showing last night was surely good news for Tampa Bay. However, he played DH, and as he works his way back from shoulder surgery, the team’s biggest questions aren’t about his hitting or his baserunning but his ability to play shortstop. The Rays have already made it clear that they won’t reinstate Kim until he is ready to provide his typical Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop on a daily basis. So, tonight’s game, in which he’s playing shortstop, will be a much better test of his readiness to return. If it goes well, it might not be long before he finally makes his Rays debut. Topkin suggests Kim is unlikely to require the maximum 20 days of rehab before he is back with the big league club.

More from around the AL East…

  • Max Scherzer dominated Triple-A competition in his latest rehab start on Wednesday, striking out eight of the 17 batters he faced in 4 1/3 scoreless innings. However, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s “thumb/hand” was sore following the outing, so the Blue Jays have decided to push back his next bullpen session to Sunday, instead of today as originally planned. This won’t prevent him from rejoining Toronto’s rotation next week – presuming no further setbacks – but it now seems as if he’s looking at a Wednesday or Thursday return, instead of starting the series opener against the Guardians on Tuesday. The Jays have struggled to fill his spot in the rotation ever since he exited early from his first start of the season, so his return will be a highly anticipated event.
  • Orioles second and third baseman Jordan Westburg came back from a long stint on the injured list just last week, but he had a new injury scare this afternoon. He jammed his left hand into the bag as he stole second base and later exited the game. Following the contest, manager Tony Mansolino told reporters (including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that Westburg had indeed jammed his fingers on the play, but X-rays were negative. The team is hoping it’s just a day-to-day injury and won’t force Westburg back to the IL. The All-Star infielder has been hitting very well since his return from a hamstring strain.
  • Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year, has been out all season with a lat strain, but he’s making good progress toward his return to the Yankees rotation. Speaking to reporters before today’s game, manager Aaron Boone spoke highly of Gil’s performance in a live batting practice session (per The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty). Boone did not offer a timeline for the right-hander’s rehab, but he did compare Gil to a trade deadline addition, which suggests he could be back on the mound in late July or early August. Despite several major injuries, the Yankees rank eighth in starters’ ERA and fourth in starters’ SIERA this season. Gil’s return should make an already strong rotation even stronger.
  • In more Yankees news, Boone revealed on Friday that Devin Williams and Luke Weaver will share closing duties going forward (per ESPN’s Jorge Castillo). Williams is the bigger name with more experience in the role; he’s a two-time All-Star with 77 career saves. However, he struggled with his new team early in 2025, and Weaver stepped up to take over the closing job. Then, Williams moved back into his old ninth-inning role in June when Weaver hit the IL with a hamstring strain. He earned four saves in four chances over seven appearances, striking out 10, walking none, and giving up just one earned run. So, now that Weaver is healthy, it’s understandable why Boone wants to give both pitchers save opportunities. Weaver struggled in his first game back, giving up two hits, a walk, and a home run, but he didn’t seem overly concerned, telling Kuty, “I felt like my stuff was as good as it’s been all year, if not better.”
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Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees Notes Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Devin Williams Ha-Seong Kim Hunter Bigge Jordan Westburg Luis Gil Luke Weaver Max Scherzer

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Rangers Place Jake Burger On 10-Day Injured List

By Leo Morgenstern | June 21, 2025 at 8:15pm CDT

On Friday night, Jake Burger put his hand on his torso after a big swinging strikeout and looked in pain as he walked back to the dugout. He did not take the field for the bottom half of the inning. So, it came as little surprise when the Rangers placed the first baseman on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain this afternoon. Thankfully for Burger, he does not believe the injury to be particularly serious, and he told Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News that he doesn’t expect to miss more than the minimum 10 days. He related the oblique injury to one he suffered in 2023 that kept him out from May 4-14. While he is gone, Justin Foscue will take his place on the active roster.

From 2023-24, Burger hit 63 home runs and produced a 113 wRC+ in 278 games with the White Sox and Marlins. When the Rangers traded for him over the offseason, they were surely hoping to get a middle-of-the-order caliber power bat. Yet, he got off to a rough start in his first year with Texas, slashing .190/.231/.330 with a 53 wRC+ over the first five weeks of the season. At the beginning of May, the Rangers made the surprising decision to briefly option him to Triple-A Round Rock, giving the 29-year-old an opportunity to take a breath and reset. It seemed to work, as he went 9-for-23 with two home runs in six games with the Round Rock Express. Following his call-up on May 12, he hit eight doubles and seven home runs over his next 35 games. His overall results in this stretch (.725 OPS and 100 wRC+) were still more average than good, but his plus power was back, and even average overall production represented a huge improvement upon his early-season performance.

The Rangers have a few players who could see time at first, including Foscue and Josh Smith. However, manager Bruce Bochy suggests that Ezequiel Duran will take over as the team’s primary first baseman while Burger is out (per McFarland). Duran isn’t your typical first baseman. He’s a versatile defender who can play all over the infield (and a little bit of outfield too), but his bat leaves much to be desired. While he hit .276 with 14 home runs and a 110 wRC+ in his breakout 2023 season, his offensive numbers were disappointing in 2024 (.609 OPS, 74 wRC+), and they’ve been downright dreadful so far in 2025. Through 23 games, he’s batting .152 and has yet to hit a home run. He’s looked better lately, with three doubles in the past week (his first extra-base hits of the season), but still, there is little doubt the Rangers’ offense will suffer until Burger returns.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Jake Burger

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Rays Select Paul Gervase

By Leo Morgenstern | June 21, 2025 at 10:45am CDT

The Rays have selected right-hander Paul Gervase’s contract from Triple-A, the team announced. In a corresponding move, fellow righty Connor Seabold has been optioned to Triple-A Durham. Gervase will be making his MLB debut if he gets into a game.

Taken by the Mets in the 12th round of the 2022 draft, Gervase joined the Rays ahead of the trade deadline last summer in exchange for Tyler Zuber. Standing 6-foot-10, Gervase had always been an imposing presence on the mound, but he struggled with control throughout his time in the Mets organization, walking 15.5% of the batters he faced. Then, over 15 appearances (17 2/3 innings) at Double-A Montgomery last August and September, he struck out 31 batters while walking only three. His 3.57 ERA wouldn’t have turned any heads, but his 1.95 FIP certainly did, and he earned an invitation to big league spring training with the Rays heading into his age-25 season.

Of course, it was always unlikely that Gervase would jump straight from Double-A to the majors, and a mediocre performance over four spring outings guaranteed that. Yet, he has pitched exceptionally well lately at Triple-A. Since walking seven batters over his first four Triple-A games, he has settled in nicely, striking out 43 and walking just three across his last 27 1/3 innings. He has a 3.29 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in that time.

Gervase will join a Tampa Bay bullpen that leads the AL with a 3.11 ERA, and he will hope to make enough of an impact to stick around long term. Seabold was recalled on June 19 and gave the Rays three scoreless innings that day against the Orioles. Nonetheless, it seems the team views him as more of a bulk-inning depth arm, and he’s already on his way back to Triple-A.

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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Paul Gervase

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Angels Place Jorge Soler On 10-Day IL With Low Back Inflammation

By Leo Morgenstern | June 21, 2025 at 8:49am CDT

The Angels placed Jorge Soler on the 10-day injured list yesterday with inflammation in his lower back. To take his place on the active roster, Gustavo Campero was recalled from Triple-A.

June has been a difficult month for Soler. Over 14 games, he has gone 5-for-42 with 17 strikeouts and a .315 OPS. He hasn’t had an extra-base hit since May 30. (He has been sitting on 199 career home runs for three weeks.) His offensive struggles likely have to do with the fact that he’s taken on a heavier workload despite a couple of injury issues. With Mike Trout limited to DH duty since he came off the IL at the end of May, Soler was forced to move into right field. On June 4, Soler was pulled from a game with groin tightness. Three days later, he was removed again for the same reason. He went for an MRI after that (per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com), but evidently, it came back clean, as the 33-year-old continued to start in right field. This past Wednesday, however, manager Ron Washington told reporters (including Bollinger) that “back stiffness” would keep Soler out of the lineup. On Friday, that diagnosis was updated to low back inflammation as the team placed Soler on the IL, retroactive to June 18.

Even before he took over regular right field duties, Soler had not quite been himself in his first season with the Angels. He hit 57 home runs with an .817 OPS and a 122 wRC+ from 2023-24, but he had just seven home runs, a .674 OPS, and an 87 wRC+ through his first 50 games in 2025. Nevertheless, he was consistently batting in the middle of the Angels’ order, and they will look to have him back as soon as possible as they try to cling on in the AL Wild Card race (despite having the fourth-worst record in the AL, they’re currently only three games out of a playoff spot). Hopefully, some time off his feet will help him recover from his nagging injuries so he can supply the kind of power the Angels were looking for when they took on the two years and $32MM remaining on his contract over the offseason. It will also help if Trout can get back in the field, allowing Soler to return to the DH role he’s best suited for.

Campero, 27, returns for his third stint with the big league club. He made his MLB debut last September and re-joined the Angels this past April before an ankle injury landed him on the IL. Last night, he entered as a late-game defensive substitution and knocked a single off of Bryan Abreu in his lone at-bat. All told, he has gone 14-for-57 with a .628 OPS and a 78 wRC+ in 19 games for the Angels, splitting his time between right and left field. His ability to switch hit, steal bases, and catch in a pinch (he’s a former catcher) should make him a useful bench piece.

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Los Angeles Angels Transactions Jorge Soler

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Poll: Who Will Lead The League In Stolen Bases?

By Leo Morgenstern | June 12, 2025 at 12:53pm CDT

By this time of year in each of the previous two seasons, the players who would go on to lead their respective leagues in stolen bases were already atop the leaderboards. As of June 12, 2024, Elly De La Cruz led Brice Turang for the NL lead by 10 steals, while José Caballero led Bobby Witt Jr. for the AL lead by three. De La Cruz would finish the year with an MLB-leading 67 swipes, while Caballero would finish atop the Junior Circuit with 44. The year before, Esteury Ruiz held a comfortable lead in the AL with 31 steals on June 12, and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 28 put him well ahead of the NL competition. Acuña would go on to lead the majors with 73 stolen bases, while Ruiz would lead the AL with 67 of his own.

That being said, there is plenty of season left to play and plenty of stolen base excitement yet to be had. By this day last year, Shohei Ohtani had only stolen 15 bases, putting him on pace for 35 by the end of the year. He famously finished with 59, en route to the first 50-50 season in MLB history. In contrast, Witt was on pace for 44 steals at this time last season. If he’d kept that up, he would have tied for the league lead. Instead, he only swiped 12 more bags over the rest of the season, finishing with a mere 31. With all that to consider, let’s take stock of the stolen base leaderboards and try to figure out who might sit at the top by the end of the year.

Looking to defend his AL stolen base crown, Caballero currently leads the majors with 25 steals. He is one ahead of Oneil Cruz for the MLB lead and four ahead of Witt and Luis Robert Jr. in the AL. So, is the Rays utilityman the clear frontrunner (no pun intended) to lead the AL once again? He’s been running more often this season than last, and he’s been safe at a higher rate. As things stand today, he is the only player in the majors on pace to reach 60 steals. No other AL runner is on pace for more than 50. What’s more, he’s been especially hot as of late, with 16 steals in 17 attempts over the past month.

Yet, if it weren’t for all the bases Caballero has already stolen, I don’t think anyone would peg him as a likely stolen base king. His sprint speed has declined notably in each of the past two seasons, dropping from the 90th percentile in 2023 to the 75th percentile in 2024 and now the 63rd percentile in 2025. Similarly, his average home plate to first base time has increased. This year, 84 qualified runners (per Statcast) have a faster average home-to-first time than Caballero. In addition, he hasn’t “bolted” at all this season. As defined by Statcast, a bolt is any run where the runner’s sprint speed is above 30 feet per second in his fastest one-second window. Caballero bolted five times in 2023 and five times in 2024, but he has yet to bolt at all in 2025. For context, 103 runners have bolted at least once this year, while Witt leads the majors with 47 bolts.

Indeed, Witt is much faster than Caballero in every measurable way. In addition to bolts, Witt leads the majors in sprint speed, while his home-to-first time ranks sixth. (All five players ahead of him are left-handed hitters, which gives them a slight advantage in getting out of the box.) Moreover, Witt is also a vastly superior hitter to Caballero. Not only does that mean he reaches base more often, giving him more chances to steal, but it also means he plays more often and hits higher in the batting order, giving him more chances to reach base. According to Baseball Reference, Witt has already had 121 stolen base opportunities this year, to Caballero’s 64. There’s a good chance that gap will only increase; Witt is underperforming his expected on-base percentage by 25 points this year, while Caballero is overperforming his xOBP by 12 points. The worse Caballero hits, the less likely he is to see playing time in Tampa Bay, while Witt’s spot in the two-hole of the Royals lineup is secure. Caballero has 47 steals to Witt’s 33 over the past calendar year, despite playing less often, typically batting lower in the order, and reaching base at a lower clip. That certainly seems like an argument in Caballero’s favor. On the other hand, it’s impossible to ignore Witt’s superior skill set.

Somewhere in between those two is Robert. His sprint speed ranks in the 89th percentile, while his nine bolts put him among the top 30 runners in the league. He doesn’t run quite as well as Witt, but he’s been faster than Caballero. Still, it’s surprising to see Robert so high on the stolen base leaderboard. He has never stolen more than 23 bags in a season, which means he’s just three steals away from surpassing his previous career high. Robert is keeping pace with Witt and Caballero right now, but he stands out. We’ve seen both of them steal upwards of 40 bags in a season before. We’ve never seen this kind of stolen base prowess from Robert. All the more interesting, he has stolen all these bases despite slumping badly at the plate. His on-base percentage is a career-worst .269, putting him among the bottom 10 qualified hitters in the sport. Due to his low OBP, he has only had 64 stolen base opportunities this year. That’s the same number as Caballero, even though Robert has taken 66 more trips to the plate. In theory, this is a point in Robert’s favor when it comes to his chances to lead the league in steals. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine his OBP will remain this low all season. He’s only two years removed from being a well-above-average hitter, and his xOBP is 43 points better than his actual on-base percentage. If Robert starts reaching base significantly more often and continues to steal at such a high clip, he could blast ahead of Witt and Caballero.

Another AL contender to keep in mind is José Ramírez. The veteran has never led the league in steals, but his 263 career stolen bases rank fourth among active players. He topped 40 steals for the first time last year and has already swiped 20 bags in 2025. That puts him on pace for a career-high 48 in his age-32 season. Finally, Chandler Simpson is a dark horse in the race. The Rays rookie didn’t make his debut until mid-April and has been playing at Triple-A for the past two weeks. Even so, he ranks fifth in the AL with 19 steals this season. Considering he stole those 19 bases in just 35 games, I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the Rays waited to call him up again until after the trade deadline and he still ended up pacing the AL in steals. After all, we’re talking about a guy who swiped 104 bags in the minors in 2024.

The competition is more straightforward in the NL, where three talented young speedsters enjoying strong seasons rank 1-2-3 on the stolen base leaderboard. Oneil Cruz is just three steals ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong for the NL lead, while last year’s stolen base king, Elly De La Cruz, is hot on their tails. Two-time NL stolen base king Trea Turner is close behind in fourth place, while Victor Scott II, arguably the fastest runner in the Senior Circuit, is fifth. All told, those five players are separated by just six steals.

Cruz leads the way with 24 steals, despite having missed a handful of games here and there with minor injury issues. On a per-game basis, he sits comfortably ahead of all qualified NL players, and he’s been successful on all but two attempts. Crow-Armstrong is slightly faster, according to both sprint speed and home-to-first time. However, his on-base skills are poor, which will limit his opportunities to steal. As for De La Cruz, he was faster than either Cruz or Crow-Strong in 2023 and ’24, but he’s been a bit slower this season. That could be due to a minor leg injury he has played through (per reporter Charlie Goldsmith). As he regains strength, perhaps De La Cruz will start stealing at the same pace as last year, leaving everyone else in the dust. At his best, De La Cruz moves faster than Cruz and reaches base at a higher clip than Crow-Armstrong.

Turner and Scott rank just below those three on the stolen base leaderboard, and their names aren’t quite as buzzy. Still, they’re not to be forgotten in this conversation. Turner led the National League in steals in both 2018 and 2021. He is in his thirties, but he remains one of the fastest players in the game. His sprint speed is tied for third among qualified NL runners, while his 42 bolts rank second in the Senior Circuit. He has also received more plate appearances and has a higher OBP than any of Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, and De La Cruz. Meanwhile, Scott is the only NL runner who ranks ahead of Turner in both sprint speed and bolts. His 18 steals are one fewer than Turner’s 19, but his success rate is better; Scott has only been caught once, while Turner has been gunned down on five occasions. Yet, Scott is not the same caliber of hitter as Turner (or as Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, or De La Cruz).

Last but certainly not least, I’d be remiss were I not to mention Ohtani. From this date onward in 2024, Ohtani stole 44 bases. If he were to do that again, he would finish with 55 steals this year, while Cruz is currently on pace to finish with 56. Another second-half surge from Ohtani is unlikely, to be sure, but it’s a possibility worth mentioning. We know he’s capable of pulling it off.

So, who do MLBTR readers think will lead the AL and NL in stolen bases this season? Have your say in the polls below:

Photos courtesy of Philip G. Pavely and Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images.

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