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Bullpen Notes: Pomeranz, Clippard, Scrubb, Braves

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Drew Pomeranz has been sidelined due to tightness in his left forearm, but testing revealed no structural problems.  (MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell was among those to report the news.)  The Padres southpaw hasn’t pitched since March 9 but the team is hoping Pomeranz can return to action in the coming week.  Pomeranz has dealt with his share of injury problems in the past — including a 10-day IL stint due to a shoulder strain last season — but not the sort of forearm/elbow issues that can sometimes be an ominous precursor to Tommy John surgery.

Fortunately, it seems as though Pomeranz and the Padres have avoided the worst, though it isn’t yet known if Pomeranz’s absence from spring games could require some extra ramp-up time via an injured-list stint at the beginning of the season.  The left-hander’s first season in San Diego was a dominant one, as Pomeranz posted a 1.45 ERA/3.11 SIERA and a whopping 39.7K% over 18 2/3 innings in the regular season, and then four scoreless innings over five games during San Diego’s postseason run.

More from the relief pitching beat…

  • Tyler Clippard didn’t retire any of seven batters faced during yesterday’s outing, and the Diamondbacks said the veteran reliever was suffering from right shoulder discomfort.  “He just felt the discomfort as the inning was building,” manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and other reporters, adding that more will be known about Clippard’s condition after examinations from team trainers.  Clippard signed a one-year deal worth $2.25MM in guaranteed money last month, and is expected to work as a setup man behind Joakim Soria or perhaps grab some save opportunities himself.  [UPDATE: Clippard is getting an MRI on his shoulder, The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan tweets.]
  • Andre Scrubb was removed from the Astros’ Grapefruit League game yesterday due to right shoulder soreness.  Catcher Martin Maldonado summoned a trainer to the mound to check on Scrubb, and manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) that Maldonado “noticed a change in his velocity.”  More will be known about Scrubb’s condition after medical tests are taken, though even a brief injury setback could hurt his chances of winning a job on the Astros’ Opening Day roster.  The righty made his MLB debut last season and posted a 1.90 ERA over 23 2/3 innings with Houston, but had a lot of control issues, recording almost as many walks (20) as strikeouts (24).
  • After some notable bullpen departures in the offseason, the Braves might yet need to add some relief pitching at the trade deadline, though “We’re going to need some good stories there to have a deep group,” president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  With Shane Greene still unsigned and Darren O’Day and Mark Melancon now pitching elsewhere, others “all get elevated now into more important roles, so now everybody moves up a little bit.”  Namely, A.J. Minter, Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, and (perhaps most importantly) prospective closer Will Smith will all be asked to match or better their 2020 numbers.  The Braves have some other interesting relief names on hand, but Anthopoulos said “we need some of these other young guys to take a step” in order to have a satisfactory amount of depth.

Rays Sign Andrew Kittredge To New Minors Contract

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The Rays have re-signed right-hander Andrew Kittredge to a new minor league deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link).  Kittredge originally signed a minors contract with the Rays back in December, but chose to enact a March 15th opt-out clause contained in that prior deal.  Topkin writes that this latest contract has another opt-out date “at end of camp” if Kittredge hasn’t been added to Tampa’s MLB roster.

Such procedural moves are pretty common this time of year, and we could see several such re-signings in the lead-up to Opening Day as various players reach their opt-out dates.  Given that Kittredge’s opt-out wasn’t even made public back on March 15, it seems likely that there was never much chance of him actually leaving the organization, and that the two sides wanted to give each other more time.

A veteran of four big league seasons (all with Tampa Bay), Kittredge has a 3.90 ERA/3.48 SIERA, 50.6% ground-ball rate, and an above-average 25.3K% over 57 2/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season.  The 31-year-old has mostly worked as a reliever, but also made a few “starts” as an opener with the Rays.  A UCL sprain limited Kittredge to only eight innings in 2020, and he elected to become a free agent after the Rays put him on waivers after the season.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Flexibility (both on the field and on the payroll ledger) was the key word in a very active Red Sox offseason.

Major League Signings

  • Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: Two years, $14MM
  • Garrett Richards, SP: One year, $10MM (includes $1.5MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2022; option and buyout totals could increase based on performance escalators)
  • Martin Perez, SP: One year, $5MM (includes $500K buyout of $6MM club option for 2022)
  • Hunter Renfroe, OF: One year, $3.1MM
  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP: Two years, $3MM (includes a dual club option/player option worth at least $600K for the 2023 season; buyout increases based on roster bonus and appearance incentives)
  • Marwin Gonzalez, IF/OF: One year, $3MM
  • Matt Andriese, SP/RP: One year, $2.1MM (includes $250K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2022; value of club option can increase based on innings totals)
  • Total spend: $40.2MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Continuing the trend of player turnover that marked Chaim Bloom’s first year as Boston’s chief baseball officer, Bloom’s second offseason running the team’s front office saw quite a few new faces arrives as familiar faces departed.  Most notably, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi will both be playing elsewhere in 2021, so in combination with last winter’s Mookie Betts trade, the Red Sox have now said goodbye to all three members of the superb offensive and defensive outfield that was such a big part of their 2018 championship team.

Bradley’s extended stay on the free agent market — he didn’t sign his two-year, $24MM deal with the Brewers until early March — created some speculation that the former Gold Glover could end up returning to Boston, and the Sox reportedly stayed in touch with Bradley’s representatives throughout the winter.  However, the signing of Hunter Renfroe in mid-December was an early indicator that the Red Sox were looking beyond the JBJ era, and the team’s subsequent addition of several other outfield-capable players seemed to further limit the chances of a Bradley reunion.

As for Benintendi, his departure from Boston also began to seem more like a reality as the offseason wore on, and trade rumors continued to swirl about his availability.  The Royals ended up landing the former seventh overall pick, joining forces with the Mets to work out a three-team swap that saw the Red Sox walk away with an injury-prone but intriguing power bat in Franchy Cordero, a young minor league starter in Josh Winckowski, and three other minor leaguers to be named later.

It wasn’t nearly the trade package that Benintendi would have commanded following his outstanding 2018 season, when the Red Sox were seeing him as a future cornerstone rather than as a trade chip.  Benintendi’s value diminished after a pretty average 2019 season and then an injury-shortened 2020 campaign that saw him hit just .103/.314/.128 in 52 plate appearances.

In one sense, the Red Sox were selling low on Benintendi, and an argument could certainly be made that the outfielder should have been retained in order to see if he could bounce back when healthy (and in a season played under less unusual circumstances than 2020).  But, after two down years in a row, Bloom might have simply felt Benintendi had already peaked, and moving him now allowed the Sox to obtain multiple minor leaguers while more struggles in 2021 would have cratered Benintendi’s trade value.

There was also a financial element to the move, as even though the Red Sox included $2.8MM in the trade to help the Royals cover Benintendi’s salary $6.6MM, that still left $3.8MM in savings.  That $3.8MM figure happens to exactly match the total of Cordero’s $800K salary and the $3MM the Sox gave to free agent Marwin Gonzalez.  This type of valuation was prototypical of Boston’s offseason, as the club spread its money around to several players rather than focus the majority of its available dollars on any particular big-name signing.

This strategy manifested in the types of player Boston pursued, as the Red Sox went after multi-positional types that could help out at several spots around the diamond.  At the cost of a two-year $14MM deal, Enrique Hernandez was the priciest of the bunch, but the super-utilityman can and has played every position but catcher over his seven MLB seasons with the Dodgers.

Between Hernandez, Gonzalez, and minor league signing Danny Santana, manager Alex Cora can now approach the left field and second base positions in a number of different ways.  Hernandez will probably get the bulk of time at second base, though he could also occasionally spell Alex Verdugo in center field.  Verdugo could get an off-day or move to a corner outfield spot in that scenario, which would then give Renfroe, Cordero or Gonzalez a breather.  It’s also possible for each of those players are all still in the lineup and another regular gets a day off.  In short, the Red Sox now have quite a bit of depth built into the roster in the event of injury or if one or more players are slumping.

The question now becomes whether this depth can be productive or if these new additions could be notable for versatility alone.  Hernandez, Renfroe, Gonzalez, and Santana are all looking to bounce back from poor seasons at the plate.  Platooning and juggling the lineup could put any of the quartet into optimal hitting situations and get them back on a good offensive track, plus the likes of Christian Arroyo, Michael Chavis, Jonathan Arauz, and Yairo Munoz are also available to provide even more options for Cora.  Top prospect Jeter Downs is also expected to arrive in the majors at some point in the 2021 season, so the Red Sox might have another position spoken for if Downs can hold his own as a semi-regular second baseman.

Bloom took the same wide-ranging approach to his pitching acquisitions, as Boston’s costliest arm of the offseason was Garrett Richards on a $10MM salary.  Richards and the re-signed Martin Perez are penciled into the rotation along with Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi.  Swingman Matt Andriese could get some spot starts or potentially end up replacing Perez or Nick Pivetta at the back end of the rotation.

It’s safe to assume that these six pitchers and other depth options like Tanner Houck, Daniel Gossett, Connor Seabold and company will all get some action as the Red Sox try to rebuild everyone’s arm strength and keep everyone healthy in going from a 60-game season to 162 games.  (Chris Sale is also expected to be back from Tommy John rehab around midseason.)  Indeed, signing an unspectacular innings-eater like Perez may have been almost a necessity considering how Richards and Eovaldi have struggled to stay healthy during their careers, and Rodriguez missed all of 2020 due to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and myocarditis.  Thankfully, E-Rod has looked in prime form during Spring Training and appears to be ready to roll as Boston’s Opening Day starter.

Some of the depth starters might eventually join Andriese in contributing out of the bullpen, which will introduce a couple of external arrivals in Hirokazu Sawamura and Adam Ottavino.  Sawamura comes to the majors after nine NPB seasons and with a distinguished track record as a relief pitcher, making him a potential bargain investment for the Red Sox if he can come close to replicating his numbers from Japan.

The Ottavino trade would have been notable solely for being a rare deal between the Red Sox and Yankees, but the financial elements add more interesting wrinkles.  With New York paying $850K of Ottavino’s $8MM salary, the remaining $7.15MM price tag makes Ottavino the second highest-paid player of any of Boston’s new additions for 2021, behind only Richards.  While the “buy a prospect” (namely young righty Frank German) element is certainly at play, the Sox wouldn’t pay that much for a reliever coming off a 5.89 ERA season if they didn’t think Ottavino could be a productive player in 2021.

Many of Ottavino’s advanced metrics from 2020, in fact, are pretty close to his career averages.  The righty was hampered by some bad luck (.375 BABIP) and by one ERA-inflating nightmare of an outing on September 7, when Ottavino allowed six runs to the Blue Jays without recording a single out.  With this in mind, the Sox are certainly hoping Ottavino can get back to his 2018-19 level, and provide the bullpen with either a quality setup man or perhaps even a closer candidate to share save chances with Matt Barnes.

Trading Ottavino helped the Yankees ease some of their luxury tax burden, while Ottavino’s addition brought the Red Sox a bit closer to the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  The Sox reset their tax “penalty clock” by spending under the limit in 2020, but the team has seemed loath to surpass the threshold again so quickly.  Their volume of offseason moves has brought the Red Sox within range of $210MM; Cot’s Baseball Contracts has Boston’s tax number at roughly $204.3MM, while Roster Resource’s calculation of around $207.6MM leaves the Sox with even less breathing room for further spending.  That proximity to the threshold was among the reasons that a late reunion with Bradley simply didn’t seem likely.

Of course, over a year after the Betts trade, Boston fans are more than a little sick of hearing about the luxury tax, and undoubtedly many of the Fenway faithful are wondering why the team wasn’t more outwardly aggressive in responding to a last-place finish in the AL East.  Signing DJ LeMahieu (in whom the Red Sox had at least some cursory interest) or Connecticut native George Springer would’ve been a much easier sell to fans than a collection of multi-positional players who all struggled in 2020.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has outlined, it’s quite arguable that no big-market team should be worried about a luxury tax overage this year, considering both the small actual price in tax dollars and how the CBT system could be altered significantly in the next set of collective bargaining talks.  It could be that Boston’s upper management has decided that there isn’t any value in exceeding the CBT threshold unless the Red Sox look like a surefire World Series contender.

Bigger spending might come next year when Sale will theoretically be fully healthy, Dustin Pedroia’s contract will be off the books, and the Red Sox know more about what they have in Downs, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, and other promising youngsters.  Of course, the Sox will also have to replace Rodriguez in the rotation, as he’s set to hit free agency following the 2021 season.  They’ll also have to patch the many holes left by all the current players on one-year deals.

In the meantime, Bloom will surely continue to tinker throughout the year on a roster that looks improved from last season, but still seems at least a couple of steps behind the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays in the AL East.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Grade the Red Sox offseason
C 38.23% (1,878 votes)
B 30.71% (1,509 votes)
D 16.87% (829 votes)
F 8.02% (394 votes)
A 6.17% (303 votes)
Total Votes: 4,913

Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson Re-Aggravates Groin Injury

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3:37pm: Pearson is doing “better,” according to manager Charlie Montoyo, but it’s “unlikely” he’ll be ready for the start of the season (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet).

10:38am: Right-hander Nate Pearson suffered a “mild re-aggravation” of his strained right groin during a bullpen session on Tuesday, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told reporters (including Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi).  Pearson will be monitored over the next few days, though considering that the young righty has missed almost all of March with the injury, it seems likely that Pearson will need to begin the season on the injured list while he heals and gets properly ramped up to pitch.

Pearson suffered a Grade 1 groin strain on March 1, during his first Grapefruit League outing.  The injury wasn’t considered too serious, and Pearson’s recovery appeared to be going smoothly — for instance, he came out of another bullpen session last Saturday with no issues.  However, the 24-year-old will now probably be facing a delay in the start of his first full Major League season.

One of the game’s most highly-touted young pitchers, Pearson made his MLB debut last season and posted a 6.00 ERA over 18 innings in the regular season, plus two scoreless frames during the Jays’ wild card series with the Rays.  Pearson also spent a month on the IL due to elbow tightness.

Despite the difficulties of Pearson’s first season, the Blue Jays were counting on big things in 2021, hoping that Pearson would emerge as a solid No. 2 starter behind Hyun-Jin Ryu.  It was something of a risky move even with Pearson healthy, and his absence (even if it ends up being a somewhat short stint on the IL) now underlines the questions surrounding Toronto’s pitching.  Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton, the re-signed Robbie Ray, and new acquisition Steven Matz are all looking for bounce-back seasons, while younger arms like Anthony Kay and Thomas Hatch are still unproven at the MLB level.

If Pearson does miss time, Atkins intimated that Stripling was the favorite to step into the rotation, going from a swingman role to a starting role.  As Davidi notes, this could put Kay, Hatch, Thornton, or T.J. Zeuch in line to take over Stripling’s long man job in the bullpen, which creates further juggling down the road about how to manage innings and whether younger pitchers are best deployed as relievers or kept stretched out as rotation depth.

Blue Jays Notes: Hatch, Liriano, Opt-Outs, Montoyo

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Right-hander Thomas Hatch made a worrying exit from today’s Spring Training outing, as Hatch immediately signaled for the trainer after throwing a fastball to Aaron Judge.  The Blue Jays’ official Twitter feed reported that Hatch left the game due to “right elbow/forearm discomfort.”

Acquired from the Cubs in a deadline trade for David Phelps in 2019, Hatch posted a 2.73 ERA over his first 26 1/3 Major League innings, though advanced metrics weren’t too keen on his performance.  Hatch worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen last season, and for 2021 was being viewed by the Jays as a possible reliever or depth starter, or perhaps a bit of both in a swingman or long-relief gig.  Unfortunately, those plans may now be up in the air given Hatch’s injury — while more will be known once Hatch is examined by trainers and doctors, it certainly looked like a potential long-term problem for the 26-year-old. [UPDATE: Hatch will undergo an MRI, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets.]

More from Toronto…

  • A possible absence for Hatch adds another layer to an already-tricky set of forthcoming roster decisions for the Jays, as Nate Pearson is also looking at a season-opening IL stint due to a setback in his recovery from a groin strain.  Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi looks at some of the Jays’ possible options in shaping their roster, and at least one 40-man move will be necessary since Francisco Liriano is looking like a solid bet to make the team.  Liriano signed a minor league deal in February that will pay him $1.5MM in guaranteed salary if he makes the MLB roster, and a good Spring Training performance has the veteran in line to win a spot as left-handed depth in Toronto’s bullpen.
  • Both Liriano and Joe Panik have March 25 opt-out dates in their minors contracts if they aren’t added to the big league team, while Tommy Milone’s opt-out is on March 27 and A.J. Cole’s opt-out isn’t until May 15.  In terms of out-of-options players, Reese McGuire and Breyvic Valera can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers, which could give them some advantage in making the team.  “The Blue Jays would ideally love to stash a few of their minor-league contracts on the taxi squad, with the carrot of a quick call up if needed,” Davidi writes.
  • The Jays announced yesterday that they had exercised their club option on Charlie Montoyo for the 2022 season, giving the manager an additional guaranteed year on his contract.  In terms of a longer-term extension, Montoyo told told Mitchell and other reporters that such negotiations had yet to take.  Entering his third season as Toronto’s manager, Montoyo led the young Jays to a 32-28 record and a spot in the expanded 2020 postseason last year, and now more is expected of a team that made some big offseason investments.

AL Central Notes: Witt, Polanco, Peralta, Tigers

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Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the stars of Spring Training, as the highly-touted prospect has wowed teammates and observers at the Royals’ camp.  As a result, Dayton Moore is “very much open-minded of him being on this team as we break this camp,” the Kansas City general manager told Fantasy Alarm’s Jim Bowden in an interview Tuesday. (MLB.com’s Anne Rogers has a partial transcript.)

“I’m not going to make an advanced decision now, but we’re just going to let the player tell us” with his work, Moore said.  “Right now, we don’t have to pick our roster. But the fact that Bobby Witt is still in camp and [manager Mike Matheny] continues to play him, and the most important thing is we all know he’s earned the respect — a young talented player with a lot of hype around him who’s earned the respect of his teammates.”

Since being selected second overall in the 2019 draft, Witt has appeared in only 37 professional games, all with the Royals’ rookie league affiliate in 2019 (.262/.317/.354 in 180 PA).  Even after impressing at the Royals’ alternate training site last summer and continuing that performance into the spring, Witt would still be making a big jump in going from rookie ball to the majors at age 20.  While the Opening Day lineup might be a bit of a reach, there is certainly an increasing chance that Witt could make his MLB debut before the 2021 season is out.

More from the AL Central…

  • Jorge Polanco was removed from Tuesday’s game due to left adductor tightness, but Twins manager Rocco Baldelli thinks Polanco should be removed after “maybe a few days.”  Baldelli told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that Polanco was initially hurt after an awkward landing on the baseball while trying to field a grounder, and the decision was made to take Polanco out two innings later when he reported some tightness while running out a ground ball.  With Andrelton Simmons taking over as Minnesota’s shortstop, Polanco is expected to move from his old shortstop position and get the bulk of playing time at second base.
  • Wily Peralta signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in February but hasn’t yet arrived at camp due to visa issues.  Unsurprisingly, manager A.J. Hinch told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters that the delay will cost Peralta a shot at making the Tigers’ Opening Day roster.  Since being released by the Royals in July 2019, Peralta hasn’t pitched anywhere apart from an eight-game stint in the Dominican Winter League, so his attempt at reviving his career will now move to Detroit’s minor league camp when he eventually gets to the United States.
  • In other AL Central news from earlier today, both the White Sox (link) and Indians (link) have interest in extending some of their top players.

Indians Interested In Extending Jose Ramirez

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Jose Ramirez’s contract keeps him under the Indians’ control through the 2023 season, but Cleveland “would love to” work out another extension with the star third baseman, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan.  To date, Ramirez “has resisted” the team’s overtures.

It isn’t exactly unusual that a club would have interest in keeping its star player, and it could be that Cleveland is simply doing its due diligence in checking to see if Ramirez would be willing to re-up for an even long-term commitment.  Still, such a move is noteworthy in the Tribe’s case given how the team has been focusing on moving salaries in recent years, and that strategy has only intensified in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.  Since August, the team has traded Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco and Francisco Lindor, declined to pick up Carlos Santana’s $17.5MM option for 2021, and put star closer Brad Hand on waivers last October just to try and avoid a $1MM buyout of Hand’s $10MM club option.

Dating back to John Hart’s days as the Indians’ GM, the club’s strategy for extensions has followed a pattern.  The Tribe looks to sign promising younger players to long-term deals early in their career, so Cleveland can lengthen its team control over at least a year or two (whether on guaranteed years or club options) beyond a player’s arbitration-eligible seasons.  If that young player indeed ends up blossoming into a star, the Tribe ends up with a bargain through the player’s prime years, and then the player usually ends up either traded or departing in free agency once their team control draws to a close.

While Cleveland has signed a few notable names (i.e. C.C. Sabathia, Travis Hafner, and more recently, Carrasco) to secondary extensions after those initial deals, it would be a significantly bigger financial decision to ink Ramirez to another contract given how he has so firmly established himself as one of the game’s top players.  Since the start of the 2016 season, Ramirez has hit .290/.366/.529 with 119 home runs in 2757 plate appearances, and only three players (Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rendon) have amassed more fWAR than Ramirez’s 26.2 figure over that five-year stretch.  Ramirez has three top-3 finishes in AL MVP voting within the last four seasons, finishing second to Jose Abreu in 2020.

Prior to the 2017 season, Ramirez signed a five-year extension worth $26MM in guaranteed money.  He is entering the final guaranteed year of that deal now, though the Tribe has both a $11MM club option ($2MM buyout) on Ramirez for 2022 and a $13MM club option (with no buyout) for the 2023 season.  Ramirez turned 28 last September, so assuming Cleveland picks up both options, Ramirez wouldn’t reach free agency until his age-31 season.

With all of the Tribe’s cost-cutting over the winter, there was speculation that Ramirez could also be moved, though Cleveland isn’t yet interested in a full rebuild, adding the likes of Eddie Rosario and Cesar Hernandez to one-year contracts to make another run at a postseason berth.  However, the Indians have less than $53MM on the books for the 2021 payroll, and Cleveland doesn’t have a single player officially under contract beyond the 2021 season.  Unless the team does go into complete rebuild mode, some of that open payroll space is surely earmarked for future extensions of its next wave of young talent — chief among them Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, though as of last month, the two sides had yet to begin negotiations.

While owner Paul Dolan and Cleveland’s front office have often discussed how a smaller-market team shouldn’t devote much of its payroll to a single player, there is theoretically enough payroll room available to pay Ramirez a superstar-level salary ($30MM+ in average annual value).  The Indians reportedly offered Lindor a $200MM extension prior to the 2020 season, and while that offer came before the pandemic changed everything, it indicates that the team is willing to make a big splash to retain a star.

White Sox Discussing Extensions With Lucas Giolito, Andrew Vaughn

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The White Sox have been “engaging” with ace Lucas Giolito and top prospect Andrew Vaughn about possible contract extensions, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports.  For now, no deal appears imminent with either player.  Both Giolito and Vaughn are represented by CAA Sports.

Giolito will be paid $4.15MM in 2021 as per an arbitration-avoiding contract with the White Sox back in January, and the right-hander is under arb control through the 2023 season.  Vaughn’s MLB service clock has yet to start, so an extension would make him the third White Sox player (after Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert) in as many years to sign a multi-year contract before making his big league debut.

At the start of March, Giolito said “there haven’t really been discussions about an extension” with the team, though it appears talks have picked up to at least some extent.  To some extent, Chicago has time on its side given that Giolito is controlled through 2023, yet naturally the Sox would love to lock up Giolito now before his price tag could continue to rise.  If Giolito pitches as well in 2021 as he did over 249 innings in 2019-20 (3.43 ERA with an impressive 32.7K% and 8.6BB%), the White Sox could be looking at an extension worth tens of millions more by this time next year.

Looking at other extensions for pitchers who had between three and four years of service time, Giolito would surely be looking to top the four-year, $45MM deal Aaron Nola signed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season.  That contract covered Nola’s first arb year — he and the Phillies were approaching a hearing — and also contained a club option that gives the Phils control over a second of Nola’s free agent years.

The White Sox could make the case that Nola was a more proven commodity with 569 MLB innings at the time of his extension and hadn’t suffered any major arm troubles, whereas Giolito already has a Tommy John procedure under his belt.  Of course, Giolito’s camp could counter that prices have simply gone up in the two-plus years since Nola’s extension, and that Giolito’s durability isn’t a concern after he averaged 175 IP in 2018-19 (and obviously Giolito could have banked many more innings if the 2020 season wasn’t shortened).

Both Jimenez and Robert signed six-year contracts with two club option years attached, with Jimenez receiving $43MM in guaranteed money prior to the 2019 season and Robert $50MM guaranteed in January 2020.  It’s probably safe to guess that White Sox GM Rick Hahn is proposing a similar framework to Vaughn’s representatives, so a full eight-year stint would keep Vaughn (who turns 23 next month) on the South Side through his age-30 season.

Selected with the third overall pick of the 2019 draft, Vaughn demolished Pac-12 pitching over three years at Cal, then got his pro career off to a quick start by batting .278/.384/.449 with six homers in 245 combined plate appearances at rookie ball, A-ball, and high-A ball.  His 2020 minor league season was wiped out by the pandemic, but Vaughn’s bat is considered so ready for prime time that he is expected to play an important role for the big league team this coming season, projected for the bulk of DH at-bats and occasionally spelling AL MVP Jose Abreu at first base when Abreu needs a DH day.

A pre-career extension would allow Chicago to install Vaughn on the Opening Day roster without any of the service-time machinations that teams often deploy to keep top prospects in the minors for just long enough to gain an extra year of control.  Like Jimenez and Robert, Vaughn is a consensus pick as one of the game’s best minor leaguers, ranking high on top-prospect lists from Keith Law (who ranks Vaughn 10th), MLB Pipeline (14th), Baseball Prospectus (14th), Fangraphs (14th), and Baseball America (21st).

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals brought back a pair of familiar faces, and swung one of the winter’s biggest trades to add a new star to the lineup.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

For the first two-plus months of the offseason, the entire NL Central seemed focused on trimming payroll rather than adding talent.  The Cardinals were no exception, as they chose to buy out Kolten Wong for $1MM rather than exercise their $12.5MM club option on the second baseman for 2021.

The decision brought a swift end to Wong’s eight years in St. Louis, and it left the team without one of the sport’s top defensive players.  For a Cardinals team that relied on excellent run prevention (the Cards ranked first in Defensive Runs Saved, fourth in UZR/150, and fifth Outs Above Average) and pitching rather than a lackluster offense, losing Wong was no small matter.

In hindsight, St. Louis fans might not have minded the long wait, as the Cardinals aggressively swung into action in late January and found a significant upgrade on Wong.  Nolan Arenado had long been speculated as a potential Cardinals trade target, and rumor became reality when the Cards landed the five-time All-Star in a complex deal that both required some reworking of Arenado’s contract, and left the Rockies fanbase irate.

The Cardinals gave up a decent but expendable pitcher in Austin Gomber and four middle-to-lower tier prospects in exchange for not just Arenado, but $51MM from the Rockies to help cover Arenado’s salary in 2021 ($35MM, with $20MM of that money deferred) and a newly-added contract year in 2027 ($15MM).  Another opt-out opportunity was inserted into Arenado’s deal after the 2022 season to go along with his previously-existing opt-out following the 2021 season, so if Arenado chooses to walk away next winter, the Cards technically won’t have paid a cent of payroll for Arenado’s services.

Since Arenado is owed $179MM through 2027, would he really consider using one of his opt-outs and leaving the bulk of that guaranteed money on the table?  If he turns in such spectacular numbers that the question is even debatable, the Cardinals would still probably consider the trade to have been worth the effort.  But, needless to say, the Cards are certainly counting on Arenado as a franchise cornerstone for the bulk of the next decade.

There is some risk on the Cardinals’ end, as Arenado is coming off a subpar 2020 season that saw him hit only .253/.303/.434 over 201 plate appearances.  A shoulder injury did hamper Arenado for much of the year, however, and between the health issue, the small sample size, and perhaps the cloud of frustration that surrounded Arenado’s final days in Colorado, there is certainly reason to expect that he can rebound with a vintage season in 2021.

With Arenado now locking down the hot corner, the St. Louis infield consists of Paul Goldschmidt at first base, Paul DeJong at shortstop, and Tommy Edman moving over to second base as Wong’s replacement.  Since the NL apparently won’t have the designated hitter slot available, Matt Carpenter will now look to win some plate appearances away from Edman at second base, but Carpenter may ultimately just be a very well-paid bench bat.  Despite Carpenter’s career track record, his lack of production over the last two seasons makes it hard to argue that he deserves more regular work on a team planning to contend.

Dexter Fowler had only been slightly more productive than Carpenter over the 2019-20 seasons, and the Cards chose to part ways with Fowler by swapping him to the Angels for a player to be named later.  Since the Cardinals are covering almost all of Fowler’s remaining salary obligations, the trade wasn’t a salary dump.  It seemed as if the Cards just wanted to move on from a player who had been an inconsistent performer over his four years in St. Louis, and clear room for younger outfielders.

The Cardinals are still putting a lot of faith in that young outfield mix, as they didn’t add any proven veteran names to the depth chart.  Apart from Harrison Bader’s big numbers against left-handed pitching, there wasn’t much offense to be found in the St. Louis outfield in 2020, but with some extenuating circumstances — star prospect Dylan Carlson was in his first MLB season, and Lane Thomas had a rough time recovering from COVID-19.

Should any of this group or Tyler O’Neill struggle again, however, the Cardinals might consider a midseason addition to finally restore some consistent pop to the outfield.  Further down the depth chart, Justin Williams, Austin Dean, or a minor league signing like Matt Szczur could find an opening for playing time, and if the Cardinals wanted to get creative, the outfield could be Nolan Gorman’s path to a quicker Major League promotion.  The team was planning to test Gorman as an outfielder and second baseman, since third base (Gorman’s regular position) is now Arenado’s spot for the foreseeable future.

While the Arenado trade was being finalized and approved by the league, the Cardinals also worked to complete two contracts for a pair of St. Louis icons.  Though other teams showed interest in both Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina (with Molina even hinting that he could retire if he didn’t get an acceptable contract offer), it always seemed somewhat inevitable that the two long-time teammates would be back for what could be their mutual final season under the Arch.

There was obviously more than just nostalgia at work in bringing the duo back.  Molina hit only .262/.303/.359 in 156 PA but his defense was still strong, and Molina was also one of the many Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 diagnosis.  Molina has already outlasted multiple would-be successors in St. Louis, but for now, the plan is for Molina to act as a bridge for Andrew Knizner and (in a few years) prospect Ivan Herrera.

Wainwright ended up being a pillar of stability in the rotation, leading the team with 65 2/3 innings and posting a 3.15 ERA, even if his Statcast numbers weren’t very flattering.  It may be a tall order to expect a similar performance in Wainwright’s age-39 season, yet the Cardinals may need all the help they can get considering how injury concerns have already surfaced in Spring Training; Miles Mikolas has been set back by shoulder troubles, while 2020 rookie sensation Kwang Hyun Kim has been bothered by a bad back.

The Cardinals at least explored signing Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker, or James Paxton, but instead, Wainwright ended up being the only major pitching acquisition for either the St. Louis rotation or bullpen.  There are enough notable relievers still on the market (or could join the market as Spring Training cuts commence) that the Cards could certainly still add at least one veteran prior to Opening Day, but just like with their outfield, the Cardinals are counting on a lot of youngsters to step up, and for experienced hurlers like Carlos Martinez and Jordan Hicks to return strong from injuries.

Getting even one more proven arm would be very helpful for the team, but the question remains about exactly how much John Mozeliak’s front office has available to spend.  The Cardinals were reportedly looking for “cash-neutral” trades early in the offseason, and in a division where most other teams were looking to shed salaries, even standing pat payroll-wise gives St. Louis some advantage.

Before salaries were prorated due to the shortened season, the Cards went into 2020 prepared to spend roughly $167.5MM on payroll.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Cardinals have less than $142MM committed for 2021, factoring in the Rockies’ coverage of Arenado’s entire salary.  That would seem to indicate that there’s probably some room for additional spending during the season, if Mozeliak and GM Michael Girsch need to make an upgrade at the trade deadline.

There is a bit of a half-measures feel to the Cardinals offseason given their relatively small number of transactions, though a case can be made that the Cardinals already have enough to win the NL Central.  The team finished 30-28 last season despite a widespread coronavirus breakout in the clubhouse, so a healthier version of mostly that same roster plus Arenado looks pretty good on paper.  What worked over 60 games in 2020 may not work over 162 games, of course, so Mozeliak and Girsch could certainly have more adjustments to make.

How would you grade the Cardinals’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Grade the Cardinals' offseason
B 53.01% (3,257 votes)
A 29.82% (1,832 votes)
C 12.78% (785 votes)
D 2.38% (146 votes)
F 2.02% (124 votes)
Total Votes: 6,144

Robinson Chirinos To Undergo Surgery

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MARCH 15: Manager Aaron Boone told Marly Rivera of ESPN and other reporters that Chirinos will undergo surgery Tuesday. He’ll need four to six weeks to recover.

MARCH 11: Catcher Robinson Chirinos has been diagnosed with a fractured right wrist, the Yankees announced.  “Wrist and hand specialists will be consulted in the coming days to determine best next steps,” according to the team’s official statement.  Chirinos suffered the injury after being hit by a pitch during yesterday’s game with the Pirates.

Chirinos was in camp on a minor league deal, signed to provide some catching depth and perhaps give Kyle Higashioka some competition for the backup catching job.  Since Chirinos has been roughly a league-average hitter over his nine MLB seasons, this track record made him perhaps a touch overqualified for the “Spring Training depth catcher” role, which could have been indicative of how the Yankees were approaching the catching position given Gary Sanchez’s struggles in 2020.  However, Chirinos’ chances of making the Opening Day roster are now over, and he could possibly face a lengthy layoff depending on the severity of his fracture.

Bothered by an ankle injury for much of 2020, Chirinos struggled through an ugly season that saw him hit only .162/.232/.243 over 82 combined plate appearances with the Rangers and Mets.  It was a big step back for a catcher who had been a productive bat for much of his career, hitting .234/.329/.439 with 85 homers over 2043 PA with the Rays, Rangers, and Astros from 2011-19.

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