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AL Notes: Rays, Miller, Allen, Orioles

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The Rays’ reputation for creative thinking is somewhat making the team a victim of its own success in 2018, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  The Rays have already lost two members of their coaching staff to managerial jobs (Charlie Montoyo with the Blue Jays and Rocco Baldelli with the Twins), while senior VP Chaim Bloom was a finalist for the Mets’ GM job and has been mentioned as a possible candidate to run the Giants’ baseball operations department.  For now, Tampa has two coaching vacancies to fill, though the responsibilities of Baldelli’s old infield coordinator role could be altered, as that job was specifically tailored for Baldelli’s skillset.  Topkin wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one new coach from outside the organization hired, though the Rays do have a long track record of promoting from within the organization.

Some more from around the American League….

  • Neither Andrew Miller or Cody Allen had a season to remember in 2018, though could those disappointing years actually make it more likely that one of the two relievers returns to the Indians bullpen in 2019?  Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer explores the possibility as part of a reader mailbag, with the caveat that “this is a buyer beware situation even on a one-year deal.”  Miller was hampered by multiple injuries en route to a 4.24 ERA over 34 innings for the Tribe last season, while Allen simply lacked consistency, posting a career-high 4.70 ERA over 67 frames.  The prevailing wisdom had been that Cleveland wouldn’t be able to afford to re-sign either pitcher in free agency, though if either Miller or Allen was willing to take a one-year pillow contract (with an eye towards pitching better and then looking for a multi-year contract in the 2019-20 offseason), it’s possible the Tribe could be open to that type of short-term expenditure.  The price tag will be an issue, of course, as Cleveland already has over $135MM in projected payroll for next season and still must address other needs this winter.
  • The Orioles are parting ways with several members of the organization, as The Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com were among those to report the changes.  Triple-A manager Ron Johnson, director of Dominican baseball operations Nelson Norman, East Coast scouting supervisor Kirk Fredriksson, special assistant Matt Haas, and area scout Dana Duquette didn’t have their contracts renewed for 2019.  Senior advisor Joe McIlvaine and special assignment scout Wayne Britton also won’t be returning next season, Kubatko reports.
  • In another piece from Kubatko, he speculates that left-hander Sean Gilmartin and outfielder John Andreoli could be candidates to be outrighted as the Orioles clear roster space in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.  (Kubatko already reported that Jace Peterson has been told by the team that he’ll be placed on outright waivers.)  Gilmartin posted a 3.00 ERA over 27 relief innings for Baltimore after signing a minor league deal last summer, and Kubatko speculates that the O’s could try re-signing Gilmartin after the Rule 5 Draft since the southpaw has potential as a multi-inning reliever.  The 28-year-old Andreoli made his Major League debut last season, posting a .546 OPS over 67 PA with the Mariners and Orioles.

Orioles To Place Jace Peterson On Outright Waivers

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The Orioles have told utilityman Jace Peterson that he will be placed on outright waivers, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  The team is expected to try and re-sign Peterson after the non-tender deadline (November 30) and the Rule 5 Draft in December.

The move will free up a spot on the Orioles’ roster and also save the club a bit of money in arbitration costs.  After earning $900K in 2018 in his first year of arbitration eligibility, Peterson was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for a raise up to $1.3MM for 2019.  Rather than commit to such an amount, the Orioles could try to bring Peterson back on a less-expensive minor league deal or a split contract.

Peterson, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Yankees last April and ended up appearing in 93 games for Baltimore, batting .195/.308/.325 over 235 PA in the orange and black while seeing time as a second baseman, third baseman, corner outfielder, and even three games at shortstop.  Peterson hasn’t hit much over his five MLB seasons, though his versatility makes him a useful bench asset, and he received some interest from multiple teams when available in April.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/28/18

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The latest minor league moves from around baseball…

  • The Diamondbacks have re-signed first baseman Cody Decker and right-hander Kevin McCanna to minor league contracts and assigned them both to Triple-A Reno, as per the Reno affiliate’s official Twitter feed (links here).  The 31-year-old Decker will return for his second season in Arizona’s organization, after hitting .261/.351/.503 over 191 combined PA at the Triple-A and Double-A levels in 2018.  McCanna, 24, posted a 3.84 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and a 3.00 K/BB rate over 70 1/3 combined innings at A-ball and high-A ball, starting 13 of his 14 games before injuries sidelined him in late June.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Angels will focus on pitching this winter, as they look to get back into contention under the leadership of new manager Brad Ausmus.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]

Mike Scioscia’s 19-year run as the Angels’ manager officially ended after the team’s last game, leaving the team with an immediate bit of business to handle.  Speculation initially focused on Ausmus and Triple-A manager Eric Chavez, though the Halos reportedly considered up to 10 names for the job, including such popular managerial candidates as Brandon Hyde, Joe Espada, Rocco Baldelli, and Omar Vizquel.

In the end, the team stayed in-house by hiring Ausmus, giving the 49-year-old his second crack at running a Major League team.  Ausmus posted a 314-332 record over four years as the Tigers’ manager from 2014-17, winning the AL Central in his first year in Detroit but ending his tenure on the sour note of a 64-98 season that prompted the Tigers to enter into a rebuild.  Ausmus received some mixed reviews during his first managerial stint, though it didn’t stop him from being considered for several other openings — he interviewed with the Reds this month and with the Red Sox last season, and also received interest from the Mets and Phillies for their managerial vacancies in 2017.

Ironically, Ausmus now finds himself in a similar situation to the one he faced upon his initial hire with the Tigers.  He’ll again be taking over a team with several veteran stars on large contracts, and an expectation to win immediately.  The catch is, Ausmus inherited a perennial contender in Detroit, whereas the Halos have just one postseason appearance in the last nine years and haven’t even cracked the .500 mark since 2015.

This being said, Los Angeles is facing quite a bit of urgency to get back into contention in a very tough AL West.  Only two seasons remain on Mike Trout’s contract, and while the club is expected to discuss an extension with the superstar outfielder, one would think Trout would need to be firmly convinced that the Angels are on an upward trajectory before he even considers another deal with the team.  Trout has repeatedly spoken of his desire to win, after all, and he has only three postseason games (and zero wins) to show for his time in L.A. despite posting numbers that have already generated “best player ever” buzz.

A Trout extension would be by far the biggest achievement for the Angels this offseason, though looking at things from Trout’s perspective, it would probably be more logical for him to see how the 2019 season plays out before deciding about his long-term future.  He’d have more of a chance to evaluate Ausmus, see how the team’s forthcoming offseason moves play out, and perhaps simply to see if the Angels already have a roster that is capable of winning if it can just stay healthy. Of course, it’s also possible that Trout will simply prefer to test the open market and at least explore a move back to his native east coast after the 2020 season.

Another potential factor in Trout’s decision, and also a matter of much broader import to the franchise, is the rather surprising recent news about the Angels opting out of their lease at Angel Stadium.  We know the Halos still be in Anaheim in 2019, though it remains to be seen if the opt-out could lead to stadium renovations, an entirely new ballpark, or perhaps even a move to a new city, whether it be elsewhere in the greater Los Angeles area or maybe beyond.  This situation will certainly bear watching in the coming months, and could potentially end up being one of the offseason’s bigger subplots.

Turning back to the roster, Trout is coming off yet another superlative season, hitting .312/.460/.628 with 39 homers over 608 PA and contributing 9.8 fWAR to the Angels’ cumulative 24.4 fWAR for position players.  Of the club’s returning players, Andrelton Simmons (5.5 fWAR), Justin Upton (3.1 fWAR), Shohei Ohtani (2.8 fWAR only as a DH), and rookie David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR) combined with Trout for 23.1 fWAR, giving you some idea of how top-heavy the production was within the Angels’ lineup.  The team didn’t receive much from the catcher position (Martin Maldonado was traded to the Astros in July), and Kole Calhoun, Zack Cozart, and Albert Pujols were all replacement-level or worse in 2018.

There likely won’t be much change to the position player core, as the outfield will again comprise of Upton, Trout, and Calhoun, with the Halos hoping that Calhoun can build on a much-improved second half.  Simmons will again be the infield’s cornerstone at shortstop, while Fletcher and Cozart will handle second and third base, though it isn’t yet clear who will handle either position.  Fletcher’s emergence was a nice positive, and it gives the team flexibility in deciding the best spot for Cozart over the last two years of his contract.  Cozart’s first year in Anaheim came to premature end in June due to shoulder surgery, and the veteran infielder is hoping for better health to rebound from this lost season.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month, Ohtani almost certainly won’t pitch for the Angels in 2019, though he will still be able to contribute at a designated hitter for the bulk of the season.  Depending on his rehab, Ohtani may not necessarily be ready for Opening Day, and the team might choose to not play Ohtani every day when he does return from the DL for the sake of his long-term conditioning. At this point, the plans have yet to take shape.

Even if Ohtani doesn’t receive many more than the 367 plate appearances he received in 2018, however, he still projects to be a huge part of the L.A. lineup.  Among players with at least 350 PA last season, Ohtani’s 152 wRC+ ranked eighth in all of baseball.  That was despite some rather drastic splits (1.043 OPS against right-handed pitching, .654 OPS against left-handed pitching) and, of course, the wholly unique factor that Ohtani spent half his time as a pitcher.

The Angels are likely to give Albert Pujols some DH time when facing a left-handed starter, as the veteran slugger can’t be an everyday option at first base given his history of injuries (including knee and elbow procedures this season).  After his second consecutive negative-fWAR season, there’s little evidence to suggest that Pujols should still get any sort of regular action, and a case could be made that the Angels would be better off eating Pujols’ remaining $87MM in salary rather than continue to use a roster spot on such a limited player.

Until we get hints that the Angels are considering a release, however, Pujols will continue to be penciled in for a timeshare at first base and DH.  Owner Arte Moreno recently stated that the club’s offseason to-do list includes “a left-handed bat with some power to play first base,” though such a player would be used “just to fill in.”  Free agents like Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, or Logan Morrison could fit this description if Los Angeles truly is looking for just part-time help.  On the trade front, a slightly more versatile first baseman like Eric Thames could help at first and also provide corner outfield depth.  In a recent outline of Justin Smoak’s trade market, I cited the Angels as a longshot choice due to Pujols’ presence, though the switch-hitter is an affordable short-term option ($8MM in 2019) who has crushed righty pitching over the last two seasons. Adding a player limited to first base, of course, would make for quite an awkward roster arrangement. Optimally, the lefty bat would come from a player who can also line up elsewhere in the infield. A player such as Asdrubal Cabrera could theoretically make some sense, though it’s unclear how much the club can spend on this need.

If the infield mix could use a boost, it’s equally true that the club will be interested in finding a complimentary piece to put alongside Calhoun. That role fell flat in 2018, as Young struggled with injuries and wasn’t effective. Presumably, the club will pick up a different right-handed-hitting outfielder for the season to come. Among free agents, players such as Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gomez, and Matt Szczur could receive consideration. There’ll surely also be plenty of possibilities on the trade market.

Looking elsewhere at the bench, the Angels will be open for business in looking for additional depth, likely in the form of veterans on minor league contracts.  After all, there are some other worthwhile internal names to consider.  Jose Miguel Fernandez, Michael Hermosillo, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo are some of the young in-house options, and MLB.com’s Maria Guardado recently opined that the latter two players could potentially challenge Fletcher for a starting gig.  Top prospects Jo Adell and Jahmai Jones both reached Double-A in 2018 and could factor into the big league roster later in the season.

The catcher position looks like the Angels’ clearest opportunity for an offensive upgrade.  Jose Briceno and Francisco Arcia handled the bulk of the work after Maldonado was traded, and the likeliest course of action would be that the two rookies compete in Spring Training for the backup job or potentially a platoon role, depending on who Los Angeles brings into the mix.  There are quite a few known veteran options available in free agency (Kurt Suzuki, Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, or Maldonado himself) who could fit into a timeshare if the Angels still intend to see what they have in Bricano or Arcia.

The team is no stranger to a big free agent splash, however, so Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos figure to land on the Halos’ radar screen.  Of the two, Grandal is younger, a better pitch framer, and has a less troublesome injury history, though he is also going to require a bigger contract (and could cost a draft pick, if the Dodgers extend a qualifying offer and Grandal rejects it).  The Angels will probably at least check in with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, though L.A. will be hesitant to part with the prospects necessary to land the All-Star catcher.

An improving farm system does give the Halos some notable trade chips to work with, though creating a sustainable future will require discipline. A high-profile trade, then, may not be terribly likely. It’s fair to wonder, though, whether the Angels have the budget space for at least one big new salary.  The team’s Opening Day payrolls have topped the $166MM mark in each of the last two seasons, and Moreno has shown a clear willingness to spend in his time owning the team, with the caveat that the team has always remained under the luxury tax threshold.  The Angels have roughly $146MM on the books for 2019, factoring in the $4.3MM saved in the form of the likely non-tender candidates. Adding one major salary would likely mean increasing the spending line. With a current CBT threshold of $206MM, perhaps that’s a real possibility.

The bulk of the team’s spending this winter, however, is very likely to be directed towards pitching.  Eppler has said that the Angels will be looking at both starters and relievers as they look to augment a unit that has been crushed by injuries in recent seasons.  In 2018 alone, the Halos saw Ohtani, Garrett Richards, Keynan Middleton, Blake Wood, John Lamb, and J.C. Ramirez all undergo Tommy John surgeries, while Nick Tropeano battled shoulder problems all year and Jake Jewell was sidelined after fracturing his right fibula.

Andrew Heaney’s first full season back from a past Tommy John surgery saw the southpaw toss 180 innings, which was one bright spot for the rotation.  Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are the two pitchers who already have a claim to starting jobs, while the group of Jaime Barria, Matt Shoemaker, and Felix Pena will compete for at least one of the remaining spots in the starting five.  Tropeano, Parker Bridwell, and Alex Meyer will be in the mix at least as depth options, and prospects Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez aren’t too far away.  Ramirez could also factor in as late-season depth if he isn’t non-tendered, and while Richards isn’t expected to pitch in 2019, the Angels could try to re-sign him on a relatively cheap two-year deal with the bulk of the money coming when he’s healthy in 2020.

There is plenty of room here for a proper ace, an innings-eating workhorse, or both as the Angels do their offseason shopping.  Expect L.A. to be active in trade talks for any available arms, while Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel are the two top names currently leading the free agent pitching market.  Gio Gonzalez and J.A. Happ are more durable, less-expensive options, with Happ delivering better recent results for the Yankees and Blue Jays.

The most earth-shaking move, particularly within the Los Angeles baseball scene, would be if the Angels could convince Clayton Kershaw to leave Chavez Ravine for Anaheim.  Kershaw can opt out of the remaining two years on his Dodgers contract after the season, and would instantly become the biggest target in the pitching market if he did enter free agency.  It still isn’t clear if Kershaw will exercise his opt-out clause, though it be logical for him to at least explore his options, even if he does ultimately want to remain with the Dodgers.

The Angels will certainly be in touch with Kershaw if he does test the market, though they surely won’t be a favorite to land him. They could also consider another Dodgers starter in Hyun-Jin Ryu, though Ryu comes with another checkered injury history. The Dodgers have not shied away from loading up on pitchers with questionable health histories, so that could be a strategy the Halos attempt to emulate. There are several other hurlers on the market who’d come with quite some risk. Most intriguing, perhaps, is Yusei Kikuchi, a top Japanese hurler who hails from the same high school as Ohtani.

The Halos bullpen posted middle-of-the-pack numbers last season, though they will boast a host of young arms even with Middleton sidelined.  Blake Parker or Ty Buttrey are the top internal choices for the closer’s job, and there are lot of experienced ninth-inning names available in free agency ranging from rebound candidates (i.e. Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland) to the top of the market (i.e. Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia).  With all of the injuries and durability issues within the Angels’ pitching staff, there’s also room for the club to explore using some of their recovering arms as swingmen or extended long relievers, perhaps with an “opener” in the first inning to take a page from the Rays’ book.

Even a moderate amount of pitching stability could’ve helped the Angels at least vie for a postseason berth in each of the last two seasons, as the team is coming off consecutive 80-82 records.  With better health and another solid arm or two, it isn’t a stretch to imagine the Angels getting back into contention, considering that world-class building blocks like Trout, Simmons, Upton, and (even as only a hitter) Ohtani are already in place.

Quick Hits: Roberts, Brewers, Harvey

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Some rumblings from around baseball as we get ready for the World Series to begin on Tuesday…

  • The Dodgers’ club option on Dave Roberts for 2019 is worth $1.1MM, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link).  The full financial terms of Roberts’ three-year contract aren’t known, though the manager is set to earn a nice payday should the club exercise its option as expected.  It is somewhat unusual that the Dodgers haven’t already locked Roberts up on a longer-term deal, though one would think that an extension is even more of an obvious bit of offseason business now that Roberts had led the team to its second consecutive World Series appearance.
  • The emergence of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in the postseason gives the Brewers two more potential options in what could be a very interesting pitching rotation next season, JR Radcliffe of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  Woodruff and Burnes were multi-inning relief weapons out of Milwaukee’s pen, with Woodruff starting a bullpen game in Game One of the NLDS and the unofficial starter for Game Five of the NLCS (when Wade Miley’s “start” lasted just one batter in a bit of trickery on the Brewers’ part).  With Woodruff and Burnes likely to be stretched out in Spring Training, they could add depth to a Milwaukee staff that has Jhoulys Chacin as the only sure thing, with Zach Davies, Freddy Peralta, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, and potentially a healthy Jimmy Nelson also in the mix.
  • Orioles pitching prospect Hunter Harvey will begin another throwing program in December, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Chosen 22nd overall by the O’s in the 2013 draft, Harvey has tossed only 176 2/3 innings over his five pro seasons due to a number of arm problems, including Tommy John surgery in 2016.  This past season saw Harvey sidelined with shoulder, forearm, and elbow issues that limited him to 32 1/3 frames for Double-A Bowie.  The right-hander doesn’t turn 24 until December, and the Orioles are still hopeful that Harvey can develop into a solid Major League pitcher if he can shake the injury bug.

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping the past week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

  • MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is underway, as we deliver a team-by-team analysis of what moves could be on the horizon this winter.  Tim Dierkes got things started with a preview of the Cubs’ offseason, and Mark Polishuk contributed outlooks on the Rays and Diamondbacks.
  • Jeff Todd and Steve Adams continued the Market Snapshot series, previewing the potential free agent and trade options available at every position (and the teams who could be interested) this winter.  This week, Steve looked at corner outfielders, while Jeff broke down center fielders, third basemen, and left-handed relievers.
  • There are a number of intriguing players who could be in line for long-term extensions this winter, including Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman and Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks.  In MLBTR’s latest Extension Candidate entries, Jeff Todd looks at what a multi-year deal could look like between Chapman and the A’s, while Connor Byrne explores what it might take to keep Hicks in the Bronx.
  • Taking a look at two notable Statcast metrics, Connor broke down the top five free agent hitters at every position, ranked by expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.
  • Paul Goldschmidt could potentially be one of the biggest trade chips available this offseason, though would the Diamondbacks really deal their longtime star?  Connor posed the question to the MLBTR readership in a poll, with 55.76% of respondents voting that Goldschmidt would indeed be switching teams before Opening Day.
  • Another NL West team was featured in another MLBTR poll this week, as Jeff asked if the Rockies should issue a qualifying offer to pending free agent DJ LeMahieu.  60.03% of readers polled arguing against LeMahieu receiving the one-year, $17.9MM contract.
  • Finally, Connor asked readers the question on the mind of the entire baseball world this week — who’s going to win the World Series?  A strong 69.39% majority of readers polled predict that the Red Sox will be triumphant over the Dodgers in this year’s Fall Classic.

Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade

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The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that).  As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.

For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering.  Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons.  The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).

This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason.  Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season.  Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM.  That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.

Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays.  Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season.  Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.

Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons.  Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field.  A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.

Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter.  After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…

Longshots

  • Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season.  Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019.  The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
  • Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell.  Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season.  I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
  • Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade.  This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary.  That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
  • Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint).  Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
  • Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.

Potential Suitors

  • Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix).  Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
  • Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend.  If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
  • Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup.  Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix.  If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
  • Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz’s free agency, Ryon Healy’s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019.  Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt.  One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
  • Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR).  Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career.  The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup.  The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.

AL Central Notes: Diaz, Kipnis, Tigers, White Sox

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The latest buzz from around the AL Central…

  • In a look at what the Indians’ lineup could look like in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that “serious consideration” is being given to the idea of deploying Yandy Diaz as a regular third baseman.  With Diaz at the hot corner, All-Star Jose Ramirez would move back to second base while Jason Kipnis shifted into a left field role.  The 27-year-old Diaz posted above-average numbers (115 OPS, 115 wRC+) over 120 plate appearances for the Tribe last season, batting .312/.375/.422.  Though Diaz’s .353 xwOBA was only slightly ahead of his real-world .346 wOBA, it’s safe to say that a healthy .371 BABIP surely contributed to Diaz’s success, especially given how Diaz continued to have issues avoiding ground balls.  (To this end, his 53.3% grounder rate in 2018 was actually an improvement over his numbers in the minors.)  When he has put the ball in the air, however, Diaz has shown some tremendous exit velocity, and he has consistently posted strong on-base skills in the minors and in Cuba.  Diaz has played all over the diamond during his pro career but has spent the bulk of his time as a third baseman, giving Cleveland an internal option at the position as they figure out how to best maximize Ramirez’s production, as well as try to solve the twin struggles of Kipnis’ two-year-long slump, and a lack of outfield depth on the roster.
  • Speaking of that latter issue in Cleveland, Pluto notes that “the outfield screams for help via a trade.”  Michael Brantley could leave in free agency and Bradley Zimmer is recovering from shoulder surgery, leaving the Indians with a projected outfield mix of Kipnis, Greg Allen, Leonys Martin, and Tyler Naquin.  The Tribe won’t have much in the way of extra payroll to spend in free agency, so signing a big name outfielder or perhaps even re-signing Brantley could be difficult.  Re-signing one of their other veteran free agents (Rajai Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Melky Cabrera) wouldn’t be a substantial upgrade, leaving the trade market as the most logical route.
  • The Tigers have been a power-heavy team for years, though as the team now rebuilds, the next generation of Tigers prospects could be developed with speed and contact-hitting in mind, MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes.  The idea would be to find fast and athletic players with the ability to both deliver doubles and triples in Comerica Park’s spacious outfield, as well as catch such potential extra-base hits when opposing hitters send liners into the alleys.  Finding such multi-dimensional players and teaching them to be fundamentally-sound in all aspects of the game is a big focus for manager Ron Gardenhire and VP of player development Dave Littlefield.
  • The White Sox are still in rebuilding mode, so The Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) figures the team will take the long view on offseason roster placements in regards to out-of-options players and potential Rule 5 picks.  Since Chicago is likelier to keep players who can provide more help for the future than help in 2019, thus leaving the likes of Leury Garcia, Kevan Smith (both of whom are out of options), and others on the bubble.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Diamondbacks followed up their surprise run to the NLDS in 2017 by leading the way in the NL West for much of 2018, though an ugly late-season fade (11-24 over their last 35 games) left them with just an 82-80 record.  Now, with the D’Backs facing an already-tight payroll situation and the likely departure of some major free agents, the team could appears to be at a crossroads.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $32.5MM player option for the 2019-20 seasons ($15.MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $14.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout)

Free Agents

[Diamondbacks Offseason Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Information]

The D’Backs spent a club-record $131.56MM on payroll last season, and they’d approach that figure again in 2019 on returning salaries and arbitration numbers alone.  Since Paul Goldschmidt’s club option and Yasmany Tomas’s player option are both virtual locks to be exercised, there’ll be roughly $77.4MM in guaranteed money on the books for next year’s payroll. The Snakes will have to decide whether to dole out a projected $51.125MM owed to a whopping 14-player arbitration class.

Keeping all those players would put Arizona over the $128MM mark, leaving the team ill-equipped to re-sign their two biggest free agents.  Patrick Corbin will be one of the most highly sought-after players on the open market this winter, while A.J. Pollock also projects for a solid multi-year deal, even if he has battled injuries over the last few seasons. Finding suitable replacements at a palatable salary level would likely mean giving up precious young talent in trade.

Whether or not the Snakes view themselves as near-term contenders, then, some paring of arb-eligible players seems likely. Judicious non-tendering might just create enough room to retain a second-tier option like Clay Buchholz or Eduardo Escobar. For instance, $9.6MM could be saved by parting ways with Shelby Miller, Chris Owings, and John Ryan Murphy. It’s possible the D’Backs could be forced to sell low by trading notable arb-eligibles like Jake Lamb, Steven Souza Jr., or Brad Boxberger. All three players are in that unwelcome gray area of perhaps being too valuable to non-tender, yet lacking in trade value in the wake of disappointing seasons. Lamb and Souza at least come with future control rights via arbitration, increasing their value to Arizona. In the case of Boxberger, who struggled down the stretch and is entering his walk year, it could be that he’ll be dangled in trades in advance of the non-tender deadline.

Suffice to say, the Diamondbacks are in a tight spot, and GM Mike Hazen may now be facing the rebuild that many pundits expected to come when he was first hired two years ago.  The general manager has already said that the team will first look to make some trades, and try to “be creative” when it comes to formulating next year’s roster. While a full teardown doesn’t appear to be in the cards just yet, some reshuffling of the deck, at a minimum, seems likely.

Let’s break down the two choices facing the Diamondbacks, beginning with the straight-forward total rebuild option.  In this scenario, you’d see the team shop virtually all of their most valued short-term assets (i.e. Goldschmidt, Robbie Ray, David Peralta, Archie Bradley and more) in order to add some much-needed depth to a farm system whose best prospects may be a few years away.  Trading Greinke would be the most obvious way to alleviate the payroll crunch, though his contact is so hefty that the D’Backs might still need to eat some money to facilitate a trade, despite Greinke pitching like one of baseball’s best starters over the last two years. On the other hand, it’s arguable he isn’t owed that much more than he’d be worth in free agency. Some clubs may prefer that three-year pact to a bidding war for Corbin or Clayton Kershaw.

Given the number of quality players on the roster, the D’Backs could shave a lot of financial obligations and also recoup enough big league-ready young talent to hope to return to contention as early as 2021.  The Diamondbacks’ solid roster, however, is also the reason why a “creative” solution might be more palatable to Hazen and company than entering into a full rebuild this offseason.  An argument can certainly be made that the Snakes could aim to contend next season while they still have Goldschmidt — who could also still be an offseason extension target — and then pivot to becoming sellers at the trade deadline if things don’t work out. In that case, the club would be prepared to start the rebuild next winter by selling off the players who are still controlled through 2020 (such as Ray, Peralta, Souza, and Taijuan Walker, assuming Walker recovers well from Tommy John surgery).

The alternative to a sell-off, then, would be strategically carving out some payroll space while still aiming to compete next season.  There are no shortage of possibilities about how the Diamondbacks could try to do this, though obviously it’d be a difficult proposition to truly stay competitive without creating further long-term problems.  It also doesn’t help matters that the D’Backs don’t have a ton of MLB-ready youngsters capable of stepping into spots left open by traded players — the likes of Ildemaro Vargas, Kevin Cron, or Kevin Medrano will probably be on the big league roster at some point in 2019, though can’t be expected to be play regular roles on a contender.

Speculation has already begun about a potential Goldschmidt trade, and there’s no shortage of pain in trading away a face-of-the-franchise player who has hit at a borderline Cooperstown-level pace for virtually his entire career.  As painful as it would be to deal the star first baseman, however, it would also be the most boldly pragmatic move Hazen could make.  Goldschmidt is only controlled through 2019, he’d net easily the biggest trade return of any veteran asset on the roster, and there are several other first base options available in trades or in free agency who could at least partially replicate Goldschmidt’s production.  This is just my speculation, but if the D’Backs can find a trade partner with enough payroll space, they could move both Goldschmidt and Tomas in the same deal, taking a fairly light prospect return for the sake of getting Tomas’s albatross contract off the books.  This would create a ton of additional payroll flexibility, though the team would have to have a clear strategy in mind to reinvest the money wisely — not only to boost the 2019 outlook but also to avoid unwanted long-term obligations.

It’d be an awfully bold strategy, to be sure, but moving Goldschmidt could help Arizona address several other holes around the roster.  Center field is the most obvious area with Pollock’s likely departure, as Jarrod Dyson is more suited as bench depth than as a viable everyday option.  The D’Backs are also hoping that Souza and Lamb can rebound from injury-shortened seasons so that right field and third base can be solidified, though I’d expect the team to pursue some type of right-handed hitting utility infield depth anyway to account for Lamb’s struggles against southpaws.  Re-signing Daniel Descalso would be a boost, as Descalso was a valuable asset filling in for Lamb at the hot corner last year, and also sharing time with Ketel Marte at second base.

Arizona has been only a modest player in free agency during Hazen’s regime, so even re-signing a player like Escobar would require a bigger dive into the open market than the club has been willing to make for the last two offseasons.  The 29-year-old will merit a solid multi-year commitment as he comes off the best season of his career, though it wouldn’t be a bank-breaking price tag, and Escobar does offer more versatility as a switch-hitter and a player capable of filling in at multiple infield positions.  Even if the D’Backs did prefer to utilize Escobar primarily as a third baseman again, he could represent enough of an upgrade over Lamb that the team could take the plunge.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Arizona will hope that Marte can continue to progress at the plate after posting a career-best 104 wRC+ in 2018.  Defensive standout Nick Ahmed will likely remain as the everyday shortstop, and the D’Backs will probably try to take another glove-first approach at catcher, as the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan recently argued that Jeff Mathis was the best positional fit of any of the team’s free agents.  Mathis and Alex Avila were by some measures baseball’s best defensive tandem behind the plate, though if the veteran Mathis can’t be re-signed, the D’Backs could look into adding a catcher with a bit more offensive pop.

Dyson brings enough pluses as a defender and baserunner that the Diamondbacks could use him as the left-handed hitting half of a center field platoon, which would leave Arizona only looking for a righty bat to share time (a free agent like Cameron Maybin would be a good fit in this scenario).  Alternatively, Peralta could be moved into center field, though Peralta probably projects best as a corner outfielder.  The D’Backs might also not want shift Peralta again since, after being installed as the everyday left fielder last season, he delivered the best year of his career, hitting .293/.352/.516 with 30 homers over 614 PA.

Peralta and Ray are the Diamondbacks’ top trade chips if they balk at dealing Goldschmidt, or if Greinke’s contract prevents them from finding a trade partner.  These two are less likely to be dealt, in my opinion, since losing either would drastically weaken a position that is already taking a hit.  Losing both Pollock and Peralta would be a huge blow to the outfield, while the rotation would suffer from losing Ray when Corbin and Buchholz could depart.

Greinke, Ray, and Zack Godley are the only sure bets in the rotation as things stand, with Miller (if he isn’t non-tendered), Matt Koch, and Matt Andriese looking like the top candidates for the final two spots.  Walker will also hopefully re-enter the picture at midseason upon his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Braden Shipley is Triple-A depth, and top prospects Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener could also be ready later in the season.

There’s certainly room here for Buchholz to return, as the veteran proved to be one of the year’s best minor league signings.  Health is always a question with Buchholz, and his season was prematurely ended by a flexor mass strain in his throwing elbow, though this latest injury could actually work in Arizona’s favor if the team wanted to retain him.  Buchholz’s asking price could fall into a palatable range for the Diamondbacks if other teams are scared off by the elbow problem, and the D’Backs certainly are the most familiar of anyone with Buchholz’s health status.  If Buchholz doesn’t return, the Snakes could look at other low-cost veteran arms to compete for a starting job, or consider using the bullpen and a Rays-style “opener” to address a rotation spot.

Speaking of the pen, the closer’s job is up for grabs after Boxberger’s struggles at limiting walks and homers cost him the role down the stretch.  It’s possible the Diamondbacks could forego a full-time closer altogether, as they adopted a committee approach in September upon removing Boxberger from the job, though I would guess they might bring in an inexpensive veteran reliever with closing experience to provide added depth.  Names like Sergio Romo or former D’Back Fernando Rodney might be fits in this regard on the free agent market.  Arizona could also stand to add a bit of extra left-handed depth, though the team already has an overall solid group of relievers.

As per Hazen, the Diamondbacks have several organizational meetings planned in the coming weeks, and if the club will indeed gauge the trade market first, we may have to wait until the Winter Meetings in December before we get a true sense of the Snakes’ approach for the offseason.  Whether the D’Backs become baseball’s most popular seller or instead attempt to perform a tough balancing act, Arizona is poised to have a fascinating offseason of potentially pivotal importance to the franchise’s outlook.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

In one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory, the Rays overhauled their roster, rid themselves of virtually all major financial commitments, experimented with a new way of how to view a “starting pitcher”…and were all the better on the field for it.  The Rays shocked baseball with a 90-win season, defying the preseason belief in some quarters that they’d be one of the league’s worst teams.  Instead, Tampa will now look to augment an already-talented core group with a few more pieces that can get the club back into the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $44MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]

After going into fire-sale mode last winter, the Rays continued to unload veteran names throughout the 2018 season, ultimately sending Alex Colome, Denard Span, Brad Miller, Matt Andriese, Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Chris Archer out of town in a series of trades.  It was the Archer deal, completed on deadline day, that really seemed to mark an end of an era in Rays baseball, as Tampa finally dealt its long-time top starter and firmly looked ahead to the future.

One could hardly have guessed, however, that the “future” would come so soon.  Tampa’s 54-53 record on July 31 was already enough of a surprise for a team widely predicted to be a non-contender, yet the Rays went into overdrive over the final two months, posting a 36-19 mark in August and September that allowed the team to reach the 90-win plateau for just the sixth time in franchise history.

Almost all of the core group that contributed to that late-season hot streak will be returning in 2019.  Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Jake Bauers currently project as the starting infield, with Daniel Robertson and Brandon Lowe providing utility depth.  Robertson (who was hampered by injuries last year) could very well push Duffy or Adames for regular duty at third base or shortstop, while prospects Christian Arroyo and Nathaniel Lowe could be in the mix for playing time.  Wendle’s breakout year as a super-utility weapon can also put him and Lowe in the corner outfield mix, as they’ll join Austin Meadows as the backup choices behind Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mallex Smith.

Of course, recently-extended skipper Kevin Cash will have plenty of opportunity to mix and match in search of favorable match-ups. And it seems likely that the front office braintrust, led by GM Erik Neander and senior baseball ops VP Chaim Bloom, isn’t quite done tinkering with this mix. Just how they’ll approach the offseason isn’t easy to guess from the outside, but it stands to reason they’ll both target some areas of need and explore opportunities to achieve value.

One area that seems ripe for some change is the catching position. Michael Perez has the inside track on at least a share of the regular role behind the dish, though the team is likely to acquire a veteran to compete with Nick Ciuffo for the right to work as Perez’s platoon partner or backup.  A right-handed hitting catcher could be a better fit, as both Perez and Ciuffo hit from the left side.

The Tampa Bay brass will have some decisions to make at first base. Ji-Man Choi exploded after joining the Rays in a minor midseason deal with Milwaukee, posting an .877 OPS over 189 plate appearances in a Tampa Bay uniform.  While Choi has played first base and left field in his brief MLB career, the Rays used him almost exclusively as a designated hitter and against right-handed pitching, so there’s room on the bench for another first-base capable righty bat to spell either Choi or Bauers.  It’s possible Tampa could simply rotate its internal options through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh, or further take advantage of the versatility offered by Wendle or Robertson by giving either the occasional start at first base.

The other option would be to pursue a relatively low-cost first baseman in free agency or on the trade market, or simply to retain C.J. Cron in arbitration.  Though Cron hit .253/.323/.493 with a career-high 30 homers over 560 PA last season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, suggested that Cron will probably be dealt or even non-tendered.  It could be that Cron’s somewhat one-dimensional offensive game and ability to only play one position make him an odd fit on a club that ended up prioritizing lineup flexibility and almost eschewing power (27th of 30 teams in home runs) to create a more diverse offense based around contact hitting, speed, and reaching base.  (While Choi has many of the same limitations as Cron, Choi is also a pre-arb player with five years of team control.)

There’s also the fact that Cron’s projected arbitration salary is $5.2MM, so the Rays may believe they can find similar production in a power-heavy league for a lower price.  Depending on how the rest of the first base market shakes out, Tampa Bay could also non-tender Cron and then try to re-sign him for less money.  This may seem like a tough fate for Cron in the wake of a 30-homer, 122 wRC+ season, but as we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams simply haven’t been willing to pay much for non-elite first base/DH bats.

After unloading so many of their more expensive players who were already under contract or in line for higher arbitration numbers, this will be the first offseason in a while where payroll isn’t necessarily of the utmost concern for the Rays front office.  Kiermaier is the only player guaranteed money in 2019 and beyond, putting the Rays on pace for a 2019 payroll not even half the size of their $76.39MM payroll from Opening Day 2018.  This “allows greater flexibility” for the Rays in their offseason acquisitions, as Neander told Topkin and other reporters, though I wouldn’t expect Tampa Bay to spend anywhere close to $76MM in player salaries.  You could see the Rays spread some money around on a few players rather than a singular big splash, and maybe save a bit more for midseason additions if necessary.

More room could be created if a trade partner could be found for Kiermaier, who is owed $44MM through 2022 (this figure includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023) and may be expendable since Smith and Meadows can both play center field.  The Rays would be selling low on Kiermaier in the wake of another injury-plagued year for the defensive standout, as he was limited to 88 games due to thumb surgery and then a hairline fracture in his foot in the season’s final week.

Kiermaier has played in just 291 of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, and his hitting numbers took a drop in 2018 after climbing above average (108 wRC+) in 2016-17.  A healthy Kiermaier who delivers even moderate offense along with his elite glovework can be a major plus in any lineup, so it could be that the Rays hang onto the 28-year-old into next season to see if he can help them contend, or to let him rebuild value for a potential swap.

Whether Kiermaier is one of the players on the move or not, expect Neander and company to again heavily focus on the trade market for the bulk of their winter activity.  (The Mariners and Diamondbacks, in particular, should be on alert for calls from a 727 or 813 area code.)  Some deals will be necessary just to create some 40-man roster space, as the Rays are facing a crunch to protect enough of their prospects before the Rule 5 draft, though Tampa could also make trade chips of some of these well-regarded minor leaguers plus any Major League roster members that the team doesn’t see as long-term pieces.

It will be particularly interesting to see how the Rays address their rotation, such as it is, as the team has already said that the “opener” strategy will again be deployed in 2019.  The Rays’ unconventional use of a short reliever to start a game’s first inning or two before giving way to a long reliever (a.k.a. the “headliner”) generated much controversy around baseball — some praised the creativity, while others questioned whether the strategy would prove too taxing on a bullpen over the long haul, in addition to criticism that Tampa was ruining the starting pitcher’s status within the game.

Given the results, however, the Rays would’ve probably faced more criticism if they abandoned what proved to be a winning method.  The Rays posted the sixth-lowest team ERA in baseball, and their strong finishes in various fielding-independent pitching metrics (fifth in FIP, seventh in SIERA, ninth in xFIP) and a .297 wOBA-against that almost directly matched their .300 xwOBA-against indicated that the performance wasn’t built on good fortune.

One big reason the Rays were able to succeed with their openers, of course, was the fact that they had a more traditional ace develop in the form of AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell.  Attempting to sign Snell to an extension would mean negotiating with him after a breakout season, though he and his reps will surely have at least some interest in locking in some earnings and protecting against the risk that comes with the job. Certainly, the Rays have proven able in the past to strike such deals when they wish to, a practice that has saved the club loads of money in the long run and ultimately facilitated some notable trades.  Even if Snell doesn’t quite match his 2018 production going forward, a young starter signed to a reasonable contract can still be quite a valuable asset, as we saw with the strong haul that Tampa Bay received for Archer.

Going into 2019, Snell and Tyler Glasnow are the only projected full-time starters in the rotation.  Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough were the most successful of the headliners and could be fully stretched out to be proper starters, or the Rays could simply continue to use them in their 2018 roles.  Top pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon should be available by midseason as they return from Tommy John surgery, though it seems likely that they’ll be used as headliners in order to ease them back into regular pitching duty.  Such a long relief job might also be the best use of young right-hander Jake Faria, who is trying to rebound from a disappointing and injury-shortened season.

Normally, a low-payroll team with just two set starters would seem like an ideal candidate to acquire a veteran arm to eat innings.  If the opener strategy has taught us anything, however, it’s that such expenditures might not be worth it for a team looking to save their dollars — why pay a veteran even a modest $5MM or $6MM per season to chew up innings once every five games when a shrewdly-deployed bullpen can do the same at a fraction of the cost, and with likely better results?  If anything, the Rays could look to sign a veteran arm coming off a rough season or an injury with an eye towards turning them into a headliner to rebuild their value, as it did recently with Eovaldi.

The Rays could also spend on their bullpen by bringing in more swingmen capable of tossing multiple innings, or a veteran with closing experience to replace free agent Sergio Romo.  Jose Alvarado earned an increasing number of save opportunities down the stretch and is probably the Rays’ top in-house choice to take over the closer’s job, though hard-throwing Ryne Stanek (the most frequent of the openers, “starting” 29 games) has also often been tabbed a closer of the future. Given these varying needs, Trevor Rosenthal could be an interesting target. Not only is he likely to present some value upside as a Tommy John rehabber, but he has plenty of high-leverage experience and a well-documented desire to be given a chance to throw more innings.

Of course, it’s probably not safe to assume that the Rays will use a traditional closer rather than mix and match their ninth inning plans based on matchups.  After all, nothing can really be ruled out when it comes to the Rays and data-driven strategies.  The team already took care of one bit of business by extending Cash, ensuring that the Rays’ creativity pipeline will continue to flow as usual within both the front office and the dugout.  It could be that opponents will start to figure out the Rays’ tricks over the course of a full season, though the team’s deep wealth of multi-positional players and multi-role pitchers make them a difficult team to prepare against.

The success of this in-season rebuild on the fly has put the Rays in position to compete for a wild card spot in 2019, or perhaps even mount a challenge to the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East supremacy if everything absolutely breaks right.  As eye-opening as the Rays’ tactics were in 2018, it will be just as interesting to see how they take the next step forward this winter.

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