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AL Notes: Altuve, Merrifield, Brantley, Gray

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Jose Altuve provided an update on his rehabilitation from knee surgery, telling MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that he’s “not doing a lot” in the early stages of his recovery process, though “the only thing they told me is we’re going to be 120 percent for the first day of Spring Training, and that’s what really matters.”  Altuve underwent the procedure shortly after the Astros were eliminated from the ALCS, after playing through the injury for much of the second half of the season.  More will be known later in Altuve’s rehab process, though for now, it doesn’t seem like the surgery will keep Altuve from being ready to go for next season.

Here’s more from around the American League…

  • Whit Merrifield is arguably the Royals’ biggest trade chip, though the team’s lack of interest in dealing him is indicative of GM Dayton Moore’s unique team-building process, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes.  On paper, a player who turns 30 in January doesn’t have much long-term value to a Royals team that has 2021 as its internal start date to once again be competitive.  Moore, however, has spoken openly about how disappointing the 2018 season was for the Royals, and he has been hesitant to enter into a full rebuild.  As Mellinger puts it, “holding onto Merrifield serves several purposes simultaneously: projects hope and confidence to players and fans, helps maintain culture of professionalism in the clubhouse, creates the best possible team for 2019, provides time to see what might be needed in a few years, and retains the ability to trade a presumably still valuable asset next summer or winter.”
  • “There is nearly a zero chance Michael Brantley will return to the” Indians in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  A reunion between the two sides seemed pretty unlikely, as Brantley’s strong 2018 season has put him in line for a lucrative free agent contract.  This made him an imperfect fit to return to the Tribe’s outfield, as Cleveland may be exploring ways to cut some veterans from the payroll while still looking to contend again next season.
  • Three evaluators from rival teams shared their thoughts on Sonny Gray with George A. King III of the New York Post, noting that the Yankees right-hander still has some solid trade value despite a rough season in the Bronx.  “I think he [has value] because with the way starting pitching is right now, you look at him as a reclamation project.  There has to be value with what starting pitching has become,” one evaluator for an AL rival said.  Between Gray’s good numbers away from Yankee Stadium, his past track record, youth, and one remaining year of arbitration control (at a $9.1MM salary, as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz), it isn’t surprising that at least five teams have reportedly called the Yankees about Gray’s services.

Poll: The Rookie Of The Year Awards

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The results of the AL and NL Rookie Of The Year Award balloting will be announced tomorrow, capping off a season that saw one of the more distinguished rookie classes in recent history make some immediate impacts in the big leagues.

Put it this way — Walker Buehler, Brad Keller, Jaime Barria, Dereck Rodriguez, Ramon Laureano, Lou Trivino, Seranthony Dominguez, Jack Flaherty, and Harrison Bader all had strong-to-outstanding rookie campaigns in 2018, yet none of this group is expected to crack the top two in balloting in their respective leagues.  (The AL rookies might not even reach the top four.)  The races in both leagues have been dominated by some major names and eyebrow-raising statistics, leaving voters with a tough choice as the regular season ended.  As a reminder, the Rookie Of The Award doesn’t cover the postseason, so Buehler’s performance during the Dodgers’ NL pennant run has to be ignored.

Let’s sort though the big six options and then let the MLBTR readers decide on their preferred choices…

National League

This has been a two-horse race between the Braves’ Ronald Acuna and the Nationals’ Juan Soto for months.  While a quick breakout wouldn’t have been surprising for either player (Acuna was heralded as baseball’s top prospect prior to the season, while Soto was also ranked in the 20-60 range of preseason top-100 prospect lists), it was still rather stunning to see both post numbers that will net them some MVP votes, let alone Rookie Of The Year consideration.  Making it an even more difficult choice for voters, both players had remarkably identical numbers:

Acuna: .293/.366/.552 over 487 PA, 26 homers, 78 runs, 143 wRC+, 144 OPS+, 3.7 fWAR

Soto: .292/.406/.517 over 494 PA, 22 homers, 77 runs, 146 wRC+, 142 OPS+, 3.7 fWAR

Adding to the similarities, both posted slightly below-average defensive numbers (Defensive Runs Saved, UZR/150) as left fielders, though Acuna boosted his overall DRS and UZR/150 totals with 96 2/3 solid innings in center field and right field.  The two also had similar amounts of batted-ball luck — both had a .366 xwOBA, indicating that each was moderately fortunate with their real-world weighted on-base averages (Soto .392, Acuna .388).

Soto supporters can point to their man’s OBP edge, plus the fact that Soto did all of this during his age-19 season, setting several Major League single-season records for a teenage player along the way (such as highest OBP, highest OPS, and most walks).  Acuna fans can counter with the argument that the Braves outfielder was only 20 years old, accomplished his feats in the heat of a pennant race, and could’ve outpaced Soto in numbers had Acuna not missed a month on the disabled list with a sprained ACL.

American League

All eyes were on Angels right-hander Shohei Ohtani in his attempt to become the first two-way player in the modern era, and the results were astounding.  As a hitter, Ohtani posted a 152 wRC+, 22 homers, and a .285/.361/.564 slash line over 367 plate appearances.  As a pitcher, Ohtani had a 3.31 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and 2.86 K/BB rate over 51 2/3 innings, before arm problems that eventually required postseason Tommy John surgery derailed his time on the mound.

After Aaron Judge was the unanimous AL Rookie Of The Year pick in 2017, the Yankees’ youth movement continued as Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar quickly stepped into everyday roles at second and third base, respectively.  Torres was the centerpiece of the prospect package New York received from the Cubs in the 2016 Aroldis Chapman trade, and the infielder lived up to the hype by hitting .271/.340/.480 with 24 homers over 484 PA.  Andujar swung an even mightier stick, with 27 homers and a .297/.328/.527 slash over 606 plate appearances.

While none of the five rookies featured were contributors on defense, the Rays’ Joey Wendle’s excellent glovework at multiple positions fueled his value.  This combination of solid defense and a strong bat (.300/.354/.435 over 545 PA) resulted in Wendle posting a 3.7 position player fWAR that tied both Acuna and Soto in the category among all rookies in baseball.  Wendle was in many ways the manifestation of the Rays as a whole in 2018 — an unheralded player who surprised many by emerging as a versatile and productive threat.

With these choices in mind, who would be your ROY choice if you had a ballot?  (NL poll link for app users)(AL poll link for app users)

Who Is Your Pick As NL Rookie Of The Year?
Ronald Acuna 75.58% (13,971 votes)
Juan Soto 24.42% (4,514 votes)
Total Votes: 18,485
Who Is Your Pick As AL Rookie Of The Year?
Shohei Ohtani 45.15% (9,642 votes)
Miguel Andujar 37.59% (8,027 votes)
Gleyber Torres 10.85% (2,316 votes)
Joey Wendle 6.41% (1,369 votes)
Total Votes: 21,354

Braves Notes: Brantley, Ramos, Inciarte, Revenues

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The latest out of the ATL….

  • Michael Brantley and Wilson Ramos are near the top of the Braves’ list of potential free agent targets, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman this week.  Given the two players’ age and injury histories, however, Bowman feels Brantley and Ramos are “nothing more than secondary options” for Atlanta at this point.  At this early juncture in the offseason, the Braves (and every other team) are likely making inquiries about just about every free agent that fits their needs, so it’s too soon to say whether Atlanta will end up strongly pursuing Brantley and/or Ramos.  The pair are fits for the Braves on paper, as Brantley could replace Nick Markakis in the outfield while Ramos could take over behind the plate from free agent Kurt Suzuki.
  • Also from Bowman’s mailbag piece, he speculates that “it would at least make sense for” the Braves to test Ender Inciarte’s value on the trade market before age starts to hamper Inciarte’s defense and baserunning.  Inciarte only recently turned 28, and there has yet to be much evidence that either his stellar glovework (+7.4 UZR/150, +17 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018) or his work on the basepaths (+6.1 BsR as per Fangraphs’ baserunning metric, though he did only succeed in 28 of 42 stolen base chances last year) is slipping whatsoever.  That said, Inciarte has been a below-average hitter and run creator over his career, and actually took a step back at the plate in 2018, hitting just .265/.325/.380 over 660 PA.  Since the Braves have another outstanding center field option in Ronald Acuna, it would be a bold but potentially wise move to sell high on Inciarte, as several teams would jump at the chance to add a player with his speed and defense, not to mention his affordable contract (owed $20MM through 2021, plus a club option for 2022).  Bowman notes that Atlanta would only move Inciarte for “a significant return,” of course, though the team figures to be open to just about all trade options, with Acuna and Freddie Freeman perhaps being the only true untouchables in the organization.
  • As per the most recent quarterly earnings disclosure from Liberty Media (the Braves’ ownership group), the team’s $410MM in revenues for the first nine months of 2018 has already surpassed their $386MM total from all of 2017, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  The move to SunTrust Park for the 2017 season led to an enormous jump in revenues (from $262MM in 2016), and as one might expect, the Braves’ run to the NL East title this season resulted in “increased ticket prices, higher attendance and increased concessions per turnstile” from July through September, as per Liberty Media’s report.  It remains to be seen if this revenue jump will manifest into a larger payroll for the Braves this offseason.  GM Alex Anthopoulos said during the summer that “there’s no single player that we can’t afford” while discussing possible trade deadline acquisitions, though a midseason pickup is certainly different than a multi-year free agent, expense-wise.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The youth movement is on in Toronto, as the Blue Jays will look to continue trading veterans and picking up controllable pieces for the future.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview]

It’s pretty unlikely that any player the Blue Jays acquire this winter will have as much impact on the franchise as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is expected to make his long-awaited MLB debut sometime early in 2019. The precise timing isn’t yet known, but there’s no question the club will wait until it is no longer possible for Guerrero to achieve a full year of MLB service time. The consensus top prospect in the sport, Guerrero represents the next generation of Jays baseball, when he and a host of other intriguing youngsters from Toronto’s farm system will theoretically become the core of the Jays’ next contending team.

Until those prospects arrive and develop, however, the Jays will spend their time (perhaps the next two seasons, as per GM Ross Atkins’ rough timeframe) figuring out who will be playing alongside them.  The club already began dealing some of its veterans once it faded out of contention last season, and it’s safe to assume the Blue Jays will be open to moving any and all remaining established names to make way for younger talent.

Since the Jays currently have a lot of options for both the infield and outfield spots, Atkins has already said that the team will prioritize moving some of its excess position players to add pitching.  The rotation is perhaps the biggest concern heading into 2019, as the Jays are poised to deploy a highly uncertain starting five. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are still in the mix. Otherwise, the unit is slated to be made up of largely untested hurlers — Ryan Borucki, and then some combination of Sean Reid-Foley, Sam Gaviglio, Thomas Pannone, and perhaps Jon Harris or Jacob Waguespack.

Stroman received trade interest last summer, even while in the midst of a down year that saw the right-hander post a 5.54 ERA over 102 1/3 IP while battling shoulder and blister issues. The Jays would be selling low on Stroman if they dealt him this offseason, and are perhaps more likely to explore a trade (if at all) during the season, provided the righty is healthy and showing some of his 2017 form.  Sanchez is an even greater longshot to be moved, as his stock has fallen after pitching only 141 innings total in 2017-18 due to persistent finger, nail, and blister problems.

Given that even the veteran names in the rotation aren’t certainties, Toronto will look at adding at least one experienced arm on a short-term contract, similar to their signing of Jaime Garcia last winter (obviously with better results, the team hopes).  Ervin Santana, Josh Tomlin, Drew Pomeranz, or Martin Perez are a few bounce-back candidates that could conceivably fit as targets on one-year deals, not to mention a familiar face like Marco Estrada, though Estrada’s own struggles in 2018 may lead the Blue Jays to pursue someone with more upside.

If the Jays looked at pitchers beyond one-year commitments, another old friend like J.A. Happ could be a possibility, should Happ value a familiar environment over a chance to compete for the playoffs in 2019.  Pitchers like Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, or Lance Lynn could fit. Looking to the future a bit, the Jays could consider Garrett Richards, who will miss 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be ready for 2020 when Toronto is a step closer to contention.  Getting even more creative with their starters, the Jays could potentially even use an “opener” for one of the rotation spots, though that is far from a certainty.

Any veteran starter the Jays acquire, of course, could also become a trade candidate at the deadline, and the same goes for any reliever the team might pick up.  The Blue Jays have signed and then flipped a number of inexpensive free agent relievers over the last two offseasons (Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith, John Axford), so expect them to target similar bullpen arms this winter.  In terms of in-house relievers that could be traded, incumbent closer Ken Giles is the biggest name, though he might be another player who the Jays wait to properly shop until he improves his value during the season.  Giles posted a 4.65 ERA over 50 1/3 total innings with the Astros and Blue Jays in 2018, with some excellent peripherals (9.5 K/9, 7.57 K/BB rate) but also very poor numbers when not pitching in save situations.

The question of “when should an asset be traded?” will certainly linger over Toronto’s offseason, particularly in the wake of the relative lack of return the Jays received for Josh Donaldson last summer, when the former MVP could’ve netted much more prior to his injury-riddled 2018 season.  The Jays obviously aren’t going to rush to move a player purely as a reaction to Donaldson’s situation, though selling high on a few players now would make sense given the Blue Jays’ projected timeframe for contention.

Randal Grichuk, for instance, played quite well in his first year in Toronto, though he might not be part of the team’s future since he is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season.  Justin Smoak is only under contract through 2019, so it might make sense for the Jays to deal him this winter and create room to give Rowdy Tellez a longer look at first base.  Teoscar Hernandez offers five years of control and a lot of power, though his high strikeout totals and near-unplayable outfield glove could make him someone the Jays see as less of a long-term roster piece and more as someone to be dealt in a package for a true long-term asset.

Of course, the Jays would undoubtedly be much more open to dealing Troy Tulowitzki, Kendrys Morales, or Russell Martin, though these high-priced veterans are each more or less immovable.  Morales rebounded from a poor 2017 to post above-average hitting numbers (112 OPS+, 108 wRC+) last year, but it would take more than decent numbers to drum up much trade interest in a DH-only player with a $12MM salary.

Martin has at least a little theoretical trade value, perhaps in a swap of bad contracts with a team that needs a catcher, though even that scenario could be hampered by a larger-than-usual number of decent veteran catchers available in free agency.  Danny Jansen is slated for the bulk of catching duties for the Jays next season, leaving Martin as a well-paid backup and veteran mentor to Jansen, Luke Maile, and Reese McGuire (plus maybe some backup infield duty).

After missing all of the 2018 season due to heel injuries, Tulowitzki has no trade value whatsoever, and it remains to be seen exactly what the Jays will do with Tulowitzki if he is able to take the field come Opening Day.  The shortstop doesn’t appear open to a position switch, and while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. can play several positions around the diamond, the Jays are obviously interested in giving Gurriel more time at shortstop given his status as a franchise building block.  One answer could be to deploy Gurriel at third base until Guerrero is promoted, giving the Jays a few weeks to see if Tulowitzki can still contribute, but there is simply so much uncertainty around Tulowitzki’s health that the Blue Jays will consider anything they can get from him in 2019 as a bonus.

With Gurriel penciled in at shortstop, Aledmys Diaz or Brandon Drury are the favorites to be the pre-Guerrero third baseman, and both players should also vie for playing time with Devon Travis at second base.  Travis stayed healthy in 2018 but wasn’t very productive, while Drury only played 26 MLB games last season.  The Jays would be selling low on either, and could just keep everyone around to compete for the job in the short-term while keeping second base warm for prospects Bo Bichette or Cavan Biggio (or maybe even Gurriel, depending on who ends up playing where in the future).  Toronto already declined a club option on Yangervis Solarte and will likely part ways with him, given their other infield options.

More trade possibilities abound in the outfield, as any of Grichuk, Hernandez, or Kevin Pillar could be playing elsewhere on Opening Day.  Pillar’s elite center field glove showed some decline last season, dropping to a negative value (-2) in Defensive Runs Saved with only slightly positive grades from UZR/150 (+2.5) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (+1).  Pillar has never been a productive hitter, so if he isn’t offering excellent defense, he doesn’t bring much to the table as an everyday player.  At a projected $5.3MM arbitration salary, a case can be made for Pillar as a non-tender candidate, with some combination of Grichuk, Anthony Alford or Billy McKinney then handling center field. That said, it’s also quite possible that another club would like to take a shot on Pillar at that price, particularly since he has another season of arb eligibility remaining. He’s also a candidate to stay and play in hopes that he’ll be of interest at the trade deadline.

Though the Jays have just under $113MM in payroll commitments in 2019, that number drops to under $21MM the following year, and Gurriel is the only player under contract beyond the 2020 season.  This opens up more trade possibilities for the team, as Toronto could absorb a large salary from another team in order to also acquire some prospects or MLB-ready talents.

There’s really no shortage of what the Blue Jays “could” do this winter now that the rebuild is fully on, though it’s probably safer to expect a few deals and modest free agent signings (like last offseason) rather than a huge overhaul.  As noted, the Jays have so many possible trade candidates still looking to rebuild value (Stroman, Sanchez, Giles, Travis, Pillar) that much of the real heavy lifting on the trade front might not take place until the middle of the 2019 season.

The Jays have already made one intriguing move this winter, however, in hiring Charlie Montoyo as the team’s new manager.  Montoyo is a well-respected baseball man with 22 years of experience in the Rays organization as a minor league manager and a coach on the Major League staff, though he has no prior ties to either the Jays, Atkins, or team president Mark Shapiro.  This makes Montoyo a completely fresh voice within the dugout, and thus perhaps a fitting choice to steward the Blue Jays into their new era.

2018-19 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is well underway, as we’ll be providing overviews of what all 30 teams are likely to have in store for their winter moves.  This post will be updated with links to each article as it is completed in the coming weeks.

NL West

NL Central

NL East

AL West

AL Central

AL East

Quick Hits: Mets, Rangers, Escobar, Trumbo

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Some stray items from around the league…

  • It isn’t yet known if assistant GM John Ricco or special assistant J.P. Ricciardi will remain with the Mets in the front office of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (Twitter link) reports that both Ricco and Ricciardi are expected to join Van Wagenen and Omar Minaya at the GM Meetings this week.  The Mets reportedly want to retain both Ricco and Riccardi, though club COO Jeff Wilpon did say prior to Van Wagenen’s appointment that the new general manager would have hiring authority.
  • Are Nomar Mazara and Jurickson Profar extension candidates or trade candidates for the Rangers?  Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News feels the team should hold off on a Mazara deal at least for now, as Texas would be selling low on a former top prospect who has yet to really display that ability at the big league level (.258/.320/.425 with 60 homers over 1720 career PA, with just 1.5 fWAR over three seasons), plus Mazara is only entering his age-24 season and could still break out as a Rangers cornerstone.  Profar was once seen as the best prospect in baseball, yet injuries have stalled his career, making it unlikely that the Rangers would invest in an extension for a player they still don’t know if they can count on as a long-term piece.  By that same token, Profar probably doesn’t have a ton of trade value if Texas shops him around to rival teams.
  • From that same piece, Grant argues that the Rangers should try to acquire a quality starting pitcher this winter as “seed money” towards a future contender.  Grant feels Texas probably won’t be ready to contend until 2021, though since the Rangers have a huge need for pitching right now, the club could acquire a notable starter as something of a “relevancy tax” to help keep fan interest up, and then conceivably trade this pitcher for future assets later.
  • With free agency upon us, Eduardo Escobar chose to sidestep the open market entirely by re-signing with the Diamondbacks on a three-year, $21MM contract.  Multiple rival executives felt the deal was a good one for the D’Backs, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required), with one exec speculating that Escobar’s price tag could’ve reached as high as four years and $40MM.  As Rosenthal noted, however, the market is crowded with several other infield options, and Escobar could have found himself forced to take the sort of below-market contract that many other free agents had to settle for last offseason.  Since Escobar enjoyed his time in Arizona, Rosenthal wonders if other players could prioritize a good situation rather than take the risk of a protracted free agent stint.
  • The Orioles will be open to moving any and all veterans as they rebuild, but it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll be able to deal Mark Trumbo this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Owed a hefty $13.5MM in 2019, Trumbo was already going to be a tough sell in trade talks, but his season-ending knee surgery at the end of August almost surely ruined his stock for any potential suitors.  Trumbo’s surgery isn’t expected to limit him for the start of Spring Training, and the O’s will have to hope that he performs well in the first half of the 2019 season to potentially become a trade candidate by the deadline.  Trumbo rebounded from a sub-replacement level season in 2017 to hit a solid .261/.313/.452 with 17 homers over 358 PA in 2018, though he’ll need to significantly top those solid numbers to increase his trade value, given his salary and defensive limitations.

Harper/Machado Notes: Braves, Mets, Cardinals, Giants

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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will drive the action of the 2018-19 free agent market, as the two 26-year-old stars are in line to land the two biggest contracts in baseball history.  Here’s the latest buzz on what teams may or may not be preparing to pursue either of the duo…

  • The Braves have been mentioned as speculative suitors for Harper and Machado, and Atlanta even had some interest in Machado at the trade deadline.  A pursuit of either player this winter, however, might not be in the cards, as per GM Alex Anthopoulos’ comments in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Siriux XM (audio link).  “We can be in on any player, we certainly have the dollars to do that.  I don’t know that it makes a lot of sense….to do deals that are ten years in length and longer at significant dollars with the payroll that we have,” Anthopoulos said.  “It’s not a rule for us, but I tend to not see a ton of value from our club that that would make sense for us….That doesn’t mean we won’t at least explore some things and see if we could line up on the right deal and the right term, but I am reluctant to go extremely long in terms of length.”  Freddie Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM deal (signed in February 2014, long before Anthopoulos was with the franchise) is the biggest contract in Braves history, though that extension was signed while Freeman was still 24 and in his first arbitration-eligible year.
  • Could the Mets take a run at Machado?  Recent history would seem to indicate against it, though the New York Post’s Joel Sherman lays out the case why pursuing Machado wouldn’t be so far-fetched an idea, starting with new GM Brodie Van Wagenen’s statement about how the team is planning to contend in 2019.  Signing Machado would obviously be a big help on that front, and Sherman also notes that keeping Machado away from the Yankees would also be of interest to the PR-conscious Wilpon family.  In terms of payroll, the Mets don’t have any salaries whatsoever on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus even Machado’s 2019 salary could be covered via injury insurance payouts from David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes’ contracts.  Sherman also speculates that adding Machado would turn young shortstop Amed Rosario into a very valuable trade chip the Mets could use to address other needs, or the team could try a scenario where Machado plays shortstop in 2019 and Rosario moves to second base, with Machado potentially moving back to third base in 2020 once Todd Frazier’s contract is up.
  • The Cardinals will check in on Harper as part of what could be a busy offseason for the team, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  As one industry source puts it, the Cards are “sending signals they are out to be a player” as a response to their three-year postseason drought, and also because they’ve missed out on other some major winter targets (i.e. Giancarlo Stanton, David Price) in recent years.  While the Cardinals still have some hesitations about extended long-term commitments to players, they could agree to such a contract in unique cases — as Goold notes, the team’s willingness to take on Stanton’s contract could hint that they are open to the record-setting deal it would take to land Harper.  Installing Harper as the everyday right fielder would make Dexter Fowler expendable, though St. Louis could also give Harper some time in center field while platooning Fowler and Harrison Bader between the two outfield spots.
  • The Giants also made a run at Stanton last winter, and San Francisco makes a lot of sense as a landing spot for Harper, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes in a subscription-only piece.  Beyond the major upgrade Harper would bring to the Giants’ shaky outfield, Harper could find the Bay Area as much of a fit as another often-controversial star (Barry Bonds) did years ago, though obviously Bonds had the hometown factor in his favor. Olney notes that Giants owner Charles Johnson “was all-in on the idea of adding Stanton,” and the club’s traditional willingness to spend big on free agents could be more indicative of future plans than what the Giants’ yet-to-be-named new general manager has in mind.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff over the past week…

  • Bryce Harper topped MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, as Tim Dierkes, Jeff Todd, and Steve Adams analyze the top 50 names on the market and try to forecast where each could end up by Opening Day.  The ranking also contains predictions on contract sizes, with Harper (14 years, $420MM) and Manny Machado (13 years, $390MM) each projected to surpass Giancarlo Stanton as the most expensive contract in baseball history.
  • This winter’s edition of the MLBTR Free Agent Tracker was also launched, to help keep track of the status of every single free agent on the open market.
  • Veteran reliever David Robertson will test the free agent market for the second time in his career, though Robertson will this time represent himself in negotiations, rather than deploy an agent.  In exclusive comments to MLBTR, Robertson explained his reasoning behind the unique choice.
  • Over two-thirds of readers polled (67.37%) by Connor Byrne predicted that Clayton Kershaw would be in a Dodgers uniform in 2019.  That prediction ended up being accurate, as while Kershaw could’ve opted out of the remaining two years of his contract and become a free agent, he instead signed a new three-year, $93MM deal that will commit him to Los Angeles for an extra year.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series continued, as we break down what each of the 30 teams has in store for the winter months.  The latest entries focused on the AL Central, as Steve covered the Twins, while Mark Polishuk looked at the Tigers.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The rebuild process continues for the Tigers, who will likely use the winter to seek more young talent while plugging a few roster holes, but they do have spending power to work with if they wish.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Obligations

Free Agents

[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]

The Tigers head into the offseason knowing that their 2019 lineup will consist of Jeimer Candelario at third base, super-utilityman Niko Goodrum at one of a variety of positions, future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera at either first base or DH (with John Hicks supplementing him), and likely power-hitting prospect Christin Stewart in left field.  Beyond these spots, however, the team has a lot of flexibility to work with as the Tigers continue to figure out who will be part of their long-term future.

At both center field and catcher, for instance, Detroit has to decide how it will best fill positions until some notable minor leaguers make their arrival.  JaCoby Jones and Mikie Mahtook are the top in-house choices in center field, though it isn’t an ideal platoon since both are right-handed bats and neither delivered much at the plate last season.  The Tigers could choose to augment the position with a veteran signing, as they did with Leonys Martin last winter, or just stick with Jones and Mahtook until top prospect Daz Cameron is ready (perhaps later in the season).  Cameron has shown solid on-base skills over his four pro seasons, including a .285/.367/.470 slash line over 226 Double-A plate appearances last season, though he’ll need some more seasoning after playing just 15 games at Triple-A last year.

Catching prospect Jake Rogers could also enter the big league picture once he debuts at Triple-A and shows more consistency at the plate, as scouts and observers are already very impressed by his defense.  That leaves the Tigers with the option of sticking with James McCann, Hicks, and Grayson Greiner until Rogers is ready, or perhaps trading or even non-tendering McCann to instead go with a combo of Greiner and Hicks behind the plate.  McCann is coming off a sub-replacement level season both offensively and in terms of pitch-blocking and framing, though he did provide decent value (1.6 fWAR, 95 wRC+) in 2017.  McCann is projected for a $3.5MM salary via arbitration, though that sum is modest enough that the team’s decision will just come down to whether or not it feels McCann is the best choice for the pitching staff going forward.

The most obvious hole in the lineup is at shortstop, as the Tigers were unable to move Jose Iglesias after months of trade rumors and will now allow the sparkling defender to reach free agency.  Iglesias will get some attention from other teams looking for a defensive upgrade up the middle, though four straight seasons of below-average offensive production will limit his market.  While Iglesias has already publicly said his goodbyes to the Detroit fans, he might very well end up fitting the team’s need for a relatively inexpensive veteran shortstop.  Sticking with a known quantity like Iglesias might be preferable to signing another veteran in free agency (e.g. Jordy Mercer, Freddy Galvis, Alcides Escobar), though if the Tigers are thinking about flipping their veteran acquisition at the trade deadline, they could aim slightly higher with someone like Asdrubal Cabrera, who offers more at the plate.

An experienced shortstop would go a long way towards bolstering the infield situation for the first part of the season, as the Tigers surely hope that more than one of their best infield prospects (Dawel Lugo, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes) can force a promotion to the big league roster later in the year.  Lugo already made his MLB debut in 2018, so he and rookie Ronny Rodriguez are favorites as utility infield depth while Goodrum is probably the top choice at second base.  Alternatively, the Tigers could use Goodrum and Rodriguez at shortstop while adding a regular second baseman.  Someone like Galvis, Mercer, or Cabrera could fit either middle infield spot, of course, while free agent second basemen like Josh Harrison or Logan Forsythe would also offer a bit of versatility at third base.  Perhaps the club could strike if it sees good value in a free agent who falls through the cracks a bit, with DJ LeMahieu seemingly an interesting hypothetical possibility as the market gets underway.

Goodrum did spend the bulk of his time at second base last year and the Tigers are likelier to just stick with him at the position, though his versatility makes him a nice asset for Detroit to utilize as they figure out the remainder of their roster. For instance, Goodrum could see some more time in right field should the Tigers take the leap on dealing Nicholas Castellanos.  After three years of .285/.336/.495 production, Castellanos offers a lot of hitting prowess to any team looking for some short-term pop, as Castellanos is only under contract through the 2018 season.  On the down side, the 26-year-old is due for a big raise in his final year of arbitration (a projected $11.3MM), and Castellanos hasn’t provided any defensive value whatsoever, either as a right fielder or at his old third base spot. Unsurprisingly, his poor glovework has reputedly limited his trade value before and will continue to do so.

The Tigers have resisted the idea of using Castellanos as a first baseman in the past, due in large part to other roster considerations. Now that Victor Martinez’s retirement has opened up the designated hitter spot, it might be time for Detroit to consider deploying Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera in a timeshare between the first base and DH spots.  (Anthony Fenech recently explored the possibility in a piece for the Detroit Free Press.)  Castellanos has never played first base as a pro ballplayer, though it would help his trade value — and perhaps also his future free agent value — if he could demonstrate at least passable glovework at even the least-demanding position on the field, rather than being a major negative in right field.

Stewart also isn’t much of a defender, so it would be a big help to Detroit’s pitching staff if the spacious Comerica Park outfield didn’t have Stewart and Castellanos both regularly manning the corner positions.  Granted, the Tigers aren’t prioritizing winning in 2019, but it doesn’t help a young pitcher’s development if flyouts and singles are being turned into singles or extra-base hits due to poor outfield defense.  While the Tigers have talked to Castellanos about an extension in the past, such a contract might only happen if the team is really intent on sticking with him as a right fielder.  A move to first base might signal that Castellanos’ time in Detroit is nearing an end, as the Tigers certainly don’t want to clog up both the first base and DH spots with he and Cabrera for the foreseeable future.

Cabrera, of course, is still set to earn at least $162MM through the 2023 season, making him one of more untradeable players in baseball due to his age (36 in April) and an increasing number of injuries over the last two seasons.  Jordan Zimmermann’s contract also makes him too hefty to be dealt, even if he did slightly rebound to post the best of his three seasons in Detroit.

With those two veterans unlikely to be discussed in any realistic trade discussions, that leaves Castellanos, Michael Fulmer, Shane Greene and Alex Wilson as possible candidates to be dealt before Opening Day.  Greene had a brief DL stint in July that may have scuttled his chances at a midseason trade, and while the Tigers would be selling low in the wake of an inconsistent season from the closer, his peripherals indicated a much more solid performance than Greene’s 5.12 ERA would indicate.

The Tigers received a lot of calls Fulmer last winter and even throughout the year, and the 2016 AL Rookie Of The Year will still get interest given his four remaining years of team control as a Super Two player.  Fulmer didn’t do much to help his value, however, after posting a 4.69 ERA over 132 1/3 innings and allowing a lot of hard contact along with spikes in his home run and walk rates.  Barring a blow-away offer from another team, I wouldn’t expect Fulmer to be traded this offseason while his stock is at its lowest, as it makes more sense for Detroit to hope for a bounce-back performance in 2019.

Besides Fulmer and Zimmermann, the Tigers project to have Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Blaine Hardy rounding out their starting five.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see teams ask about the latter three in trade discussions, and could at least be considered as trade pieces by the Detroit brass. Boyd was solid last year and could draw some interest from teams looking for controllable starting pitching, though he hasn’t yet shown a lofty ceiling in the big leagues. Norris has long been seen as a talented pitcher, but has yet to harness his promise. Hardy, meanwhile, is already 31 and did show some unexpected potential as a starting pitcher last year. It’s arguable he’s the likeliest trade candidate of the bunch, though interest isn’t likely to be too intense.  He could be a versatile piece for the right organization, but the Tigers might simply prefer to keep him themselves.

Whether or not any existing options are removed from the mix, there’ll be a need for some innings. The Tigers signed Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano as low-cost rotation help last offseason, with Fiers eventually netting Detroit two pitching prospects after the right-hander was dealt to the A’s in August.  Expect the Tigers to make at least a couple of veteran signings for the rotation and bullpen in this same vein, and a reunion with Liriano wouldn’t be out of the question, even if he seems more like a LOOGY at this point than a starting pitcher. Getting through games may require some creativity for skipper Ron Gardenhire. Using an opener for at least one of the rotation spots would be an interesting way of keeping Norris and Hardy fresh, and of breaking prospects Beau Burrows and Matt Manning into the majors if they’re ready for a late-season promotion.

All things considered, despite having some obvious needs, it’s hard to know whether the Tigers will fulfill them with significant MLB acquisitions. The payroll is well below its recent high-point, when it sat just below $200MM to open the 2017 season. But the club hardly seems ready to begin adding veteran pieces for the future, so any larger expenditures would likely occur only if there’s a sterling opportunity to achieve value. On the potential sell side, Fulmer, Greene, and perhaps Castellanos all may be better candidates to be dealt after (hopefully) building up value during the course of the season. Suffice to say, it could end up being another relatively quiet offseason in the Motor City.

Reds Part Ways With Jim Riggleman

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4:07pm: Pat Kelly, who was Cincinnati’s interim bench coach under Riggleman, is likely to return to the team’s minor league system, a source tells Nightengale. Kelly was the Reds’ Triple-A manager before joining Riggleman’s staff. He was among those who interviewed for the Reds’ managerial opening prior to Bell’s hiring.

2:22pm: The Reds won’t be keeping Jim Riggleman in the organization in 2019, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (Twitter link).  The interim manager for much of the 2018 season, Riggleman interviewed for the full-time job before the Reds hired David Bell as their next skipper earlier this week.

Riggleman has spent the last seven years within the Reds organization, managing at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, and then working as a third base coach and bench coach for the Major League team.  He took the managerial reins on April 19 when Bryan Price was fired in the wake of a brutal 3-15 start to the season, and Riggleman did right the ship to some extent, leading Cincinnati to an even 45-45 record over the next 90 games.  As the team faded down the stretch, however, Riggleman was left with a 64-80 record as skipper.  Nonetheless, there still appeared to be a solid chance that Riggleman would lose the interim tag, as his performance reportedly impressed owner Robert Castellini and many in the Reds’ front office.

There was some speculation that Riggleman could remain with the Reds in some capacity, possibly as a minor league manager again or potentially even his old bench coach role (if the team had stayed in-house and hired John Farrell to manage).  Instead, the 65-year-old will now look elsewhere to continue a coaching and managing career that has lasted since 1983.  Riggleman is one of a select group who have managed five different Major League teams, with different stints running the dugouts for the Reds, Nationals, Mariners, Cubs, and Padres.

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