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Orioles Links: Jones, Duquette, Alvarez, Machado, Payroll

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Adam Jones described the Orioles’ offseason as “solid” thus far but the outfielder tells MLB.com’s Ian Browne that he hopes Chris Davis and Darren O’Day can be re-signed.  He cites those two as the club’s top priorities and he feels the organization is “really going to make an aggressive attempt to sign CD. At the end of the day, you need CD.”  Even if neither player returns, Jones still has confidence the O’s can adapt and return to the winning form of the 2012-14 seasons, noting “We’ve had tastes of success the last three or four years. There’s no going back to Walmart steak. We’re a Whole Foods type of organization now. We want to win.” With three years left on his own contract, Jones says it’s up to the team if he’ll spend the rest of his career as an Oriole, and he very much wants to win a World Series in Baltimore.

Here’s more from Charm City…

  • Dan Duquette tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that as prices for available pitchers continue to escalate, it’s more important than ever to develop young arms.  Kevin Gausman, Mike Wright and David Hess are some of the young pitchers Baltimore needs to develop to keep costs down in the rotation, though Duquette said the O’s are also still searching for an external addition to their staff.  The rotation also needs incumbent starters like Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez to bounce back from disappointing 2015 seasons.
  • Duquette also discussed scouting Pedro Alvarez early in his career, which adds to the speculation that the Orioles are indeed interested in the newly-available first baseman.
  • Kubatko’s piece includes a partial transcript of Manny Machado’s recent appearance on 105.7 The Fan radio, as the third baseman discusses his career, his bonds with his teammates and Matt Wieters’ return, among other topics.  Kubatko notes that the O’s have yet to discuss a contract extension with Machado this offseason but they’re likely to do so once more pressing winter business is settled.
  • Now that Orioles have tendered contracts to arbitration-eligible players, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski projects that the club’s payroll looks to be in the neighborhood of $103MM for 19 players.  It looks like the O’s will indeed have to top last year’s $118MM payroll to address the rest of their needs, including possibly re-signing Davis.  Kubatko notes that Baltimore could boost payroll in 2016 and then lower it by about $25MM in 2017 once Wieters and Trumbo are off the books.  Jim Duquette (the MLB Network Radio analyst, former Mets GM and Dan Duquette’s cousin) noted to Melewski that the Orioles have financial room to maneuver on long-term deals since Jones is the only player signed beyond the 2017 season.
  • The decision to re-sign Nolan Reimold likely means that Steve Pearce won’t be returning, CSNMidAtlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff opines.  Between Trumbo, Reimold and L.J. Hoes, Baltimore now has plenty of right-handed hitting options for the outfield, first base and DH spots and the team probably doesn’t need another righty-swinger in Pearce.  Any further additions will need to be a left-handed hitter (i.e. Davis or Alvarez) to add balance to what is currently an overwhelming right-handed hitting roster.  Pearce hasn’t drawn too much attention in free agency yet, however, so Dubroff speculates that if this continues, he could be a low-cost signing for the O’s later in the winter since he’s a popular figure within the team.

Mets Notes: Span, Parra, Fowler, Cishek, Zobrist

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Here’s the latest from Flushing Meadows…

  • The Mets have some interest in Denard Span and Gerardo Parra as potential center field candidates, Newsday’s Marc Carig reports.  The team has cooled a bit on Dexter Fowler, another free agent center fielder who was targeted by New York earlier in the offseason.  Signing Fowler (who rejected a qualifying offer from the Cubs) would cost the Mets their first round draft pick, while Span or Parra could be signed without any draft compensation.
  • The Mets “will cast a wide net” in searching for relief help, and former Marlin Steve Cishek is one of many names under consideration.  Cishek was non-tendered by the Cardinals last week following a season that saw him post a 3.58 ERA, 1.78 K/BB rate and 7.8 K/9 over 55 1/3 innings for St. Louis and Miami.  Cishek was projected by MLBTR to earn $7.1MM in arbitration this winter, a number boosted by his impressive run at the Marlins’ closer from 2012-14.
  • Ben Zobrist is expected to make his choice fairly soon and the Mets are said to be heavily in the running for the versatile veteran.  Assistant GM John Ricco told reporters (including Carig) if Zobrist signs, the Mets still have payroll space to make other moves.  “I don’t think we’re operating under it’s either or at this point. I think we can do what we need to do,” Ricco said.
  • Ricco also said the Mets hadn’t yet had any talks with their young pitchers about extensions that would buy out remaining arbitration years, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  I’d think that Jacob deGrom, who is eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter, would be the clearest extension candidate if the Mets eventually do go down that road with a young pitcher.  Matt Harvey is arb-eligible for the first time this winter, though Scott Boras clients are more apt to pursue free agency than sign extensions.  Zack Wheeler (also a year away from arbitration) is recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are already controlled through the 2021 season.
  • Could the Mets re-sign Yoenis Cespedes?  ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required) wonders if the longer Cespedes stays on the market, his price tag could drop to the point that the Mets would feel comfortable inking the outfielder to a contract.  We haven’t heard much about Cespedes this offseason, apart from the elaborate promotional book Cespedes’ agents created to market their client.  Olney reports that Cespedes’ agents at CAA/Roc Nation Sports have been contacting teams with multiple calls recently in an effort to drum up interest in Cespedes’ services.

Blue Jays Notes: Atkins, Shapiro, Price

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The Blue Jays officially introduced Ross Atkins as the team’s new general manager in a press conference yesterday.  Here are some of the most noteworthy items from that presser, as per the National Post’s John Lott, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith…

  • Atkins will slowly ease into the job over the offseason, a transition necessitated by the late timing of his hiring and the fact that interim GM Tony LaCava has already completed many of the club’s big winter plans.  LaCava will “work us through the Winter Meetings and through this offseason as the leader of our decision-making. I’ll support and complement any way that I can,” Atkins said.
  • Atkins, LaCava, Royals assistant GM Rene Francisco and a mystery candidate were the four finalists for the job.  While Atkins was cited as a potential favorite from the moment the Jays’ GM job became available, team president/CEO Mark Shapiro consulted with an executive recruitment firm to make sure he wasn’t showing any bias towards his long-time former charge from the Indians front office.
  • While Atkins thinks the rotation is already strong enough to contend, he said the Jays will look to add starting depth.  With Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada already locked into rotation jobs, Shapiro expects “three or four” pitchers to battle for the fifth spot in Spring Training, one of whom will be the newly-acquired Jesse Chavez.
  • The Jays aren’t at their payroll limit, Shapiro said, though he didn’t elaborate on any specific dollar amount.  When asked if he’d requested a payroll increase from ownership in the wake of the Blue Jays’ big attendance increase during their late-season pennant drive, Shapiro said “Yes, and that’s obviously happened.”
  • Though Toronto has already addressed its biggest need in the form of rebuilding the pitching staff, that doesn’t necessarily mean the team is done for the winter.  “Because we have filled the largest holes, we are open to being very creative the rest of the offseason. So we have the ability to examine a lot of scenarios,” Shapiro said.
  • David Price left the Jays to join the division rival Red Sox on a record seven-year, $217MM contract.  Toronto was never considered to be a major contender to re-sign Price since the bidding was expected to be too high, though the team had a natural interest in bringing the ace southpaw back.  “It’s never a question of do you want David Price,” Shapiro said. “That’s silly.  Of course, yes, we want David Price.  It’s a question of how do you build a championship team within the parameters you’re given.  It’s as simple as that.  We have all the resources necessary to build a championship team, but they’re not unlimited.”
  • Former Indians manager Eric Wedge has been in talks to join the organization in some capacity, though Shapiro said no hiring was imminent and that Wedge wouldn’t be taking a job currently filled by another employee.
  • Several front office areas will be addressed, with the hiring of a new director of Latin American operations being a “top of the list” priority for Atkins.  The Blue Jays will also look to bulk up their analytics department, as well as their training and conditioning departments.

Heyman’s Latest: Cueto, Giants, Rangers, Alvarez, Puig

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Johnny Cueto tops the list as the key player to watch at the Winter Meetings, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes in his latest Inside Baseball piece.  Several big-market clubs have already checked in on Cueto and the Dodgers may hold particular interest since they considered trading for Cueto at the deadline last summer but held off out of a desire to keep their top prospects.  Heyman’s piece was written before the news of Zack Greinke’s deal with the Diamondbacks broke, so it stands to reason that the Dodgers’ interest could be even greater with Greinke off the board.  The Cardinals, Heyman reports, haven’t checked in on Cueto, as the righty “had a rough relationship with Cardinal Nation while starring in Cincinnati.”

Here are some of the hot stove highlights of Heyman’s lengthy news roundup…

  • The Giants may pursue not one but two pitchers now that they’ve missed out on Greinke.  San Francisco is “believed to have big money to spend” and they’ve been connected to such names as Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija.
  • The Rangers are receiving a lot of interest in many of their top relievers, including closer Shawn Tolleson, Jake Diekman, Sam Dyson and the newly-acquired Tom Wilhelmsen.
  • The Rangers’ shopping list includes a right-handed bat for lineup balance and a starting pitcher likely to fill out the back of the rotation.  Texas is also looking for a young catcher.  Earlier this week, the Rangers were said to be working on a deal to add a catcher but no trade materialized.
  • Pedro Alvarez has received calls from five teams, including the Indians, since being non-tendered by the Pirates earlier this week.
  • Another non-tendered Alvarez, former Marlins righty Henderson Alvarez, is also drawing a lot of interest on the open market, with 10 teams checking in.  Though 2015 was a lost year for Alvarez due to injuries and he may miss some time in 2016 in the wake of shoulder surgery, it’s no surprise that Alvarez is a hot commodity given his track record.
  • The Marlins’ desire to trade Marcell Ozuna is well-known, though Heyman notes that one obstacle is Miami’s lack of a ready-made replacement in center field.  In a tweet from this morning, Heyman wonders if Dexter Fowler could be pursued since Fowler was formerly tutored by new Miami hitting coach Barry Bonds.  There hasn’t yet been any sign that the Marlins are interested in Fowler, however.
  • Speaking of Marlins trades, closer A.J. Ramos and third baseman Martin Prado have both drawn interest but Heyman figures the team isn’t too likely to part with either player.
  • A few teams called the Dodgers to ask about Yasiel Puig’s availability but the Dodgers aren’t keen on selling low on the outfielder.  The team intends to “try to reach him” and inspire Puig to return to his old form.  The Dodgers are more likely to trade Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier if they do decide to move an outfielder, though dealing either could be hard given the crowded outfield market (not to mention both players’ salaries).
  • Daniel Murphy was connected to the Dodgers this offseason but he “doesn’t appear to be at the forefront” of the team’s plans at the moment.
  • The Mets seem to be more serious about adding a platoon partner for Juan Lagares in center field rather than sign an everyday center fielder like Fowler or Denard Span.
  • Brett Gardner’s name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter but “there isn’t currently any traction for a trade” between the Yankees and any other teams.
  • The Yankees are another team monitoring the free agent pitching market and New York “may be laying in the weeds” to make its move on Samardzija or Wei-Yin Chen.
  • Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Pillar would be a fit with the Cubs but there is “nothing to that one at the moment.”  It’s hard to see Toronto dealing the defensively-spectacular Pillar given how their next best center field option (Dalton Pompey) is still unproven at the Major League level and struggled badly when given the everyday job last April.

Quick Hits: Cueto, Cano, Park, Tribe, Colon

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Diamondbacks ownership sees Johnny Cueto as a “special case” who is worth a franchise-altering investment, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (links to Twitter).  The team’s six-year, $120MM offer to Cueto would’ve been above the D’Backs stated comfort zone of a $15MM-$18MM average annual salary for a pitcher, yet Rosenthal notes that Arizona has been willing to stretch payroll in recent years.  The D’Backs gave their largest contract in club history to an unproven rookie in Yasmany Tomas, and they were also prepared to give Masahiro Tanaka a huge contract after posting a bid to negotiate with him in the 2013-14 offseason.  Cueto, meanwhile, rejected Arizona’s offer in order to further explore his options.  With Jordan Zimmermann now off the market, it’s indeed possible that Cueto could perhaps surpass that offer from the Snakes.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Mariners privately acknowledge that Robinson Cano will inevitably be moved from second to first base, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (Twitter link).  The question now may be how many more seasons can Cano remain at the keystone.  Cano just turned 33 last month and his defensive metrics (-7.3 UZR/150, minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved) plummeted.  Since Mark Trumbo could be traded or non-tendered, the M’s may have an opening at first as early as 2016, though I’d guess the club is probably more likely to give Cano at least one more year at second and obtain a short-term first baseman if Trumbo is indeed moved.
  • Byung-ho Park is set to arrive in Minneapolis today to continue negotiating, and perhaps finalize, a contract with the Twins.  Park spoke to Korean media (including Yonhap News) before departing, saying “there are some things we need to go over with the club. I hope to be able to return with a positive result….I am approaching (the upcoming contract talks) with a positive mind.”  Park also discussed transitioning to MLB, speaking to former teammate Jung Ho Kang and his willingness to be a designated hitter in Minnesota if that’s how the club feels he is best used.
  • The reliever market is widely expected to heat up this week, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick explains in a series of tweets.  Part of the logjam has been due to the fact that two star closers (Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon) are on the trade block, so teams are exploring trade options before looking at free agents.  Over a third of league is currently looking for relief pitching help — Crasnick lists the Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, Royals and Tigers.
  • Several bits of Indians roster speculation are discussed by Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer in his latest reader mailbag.  Highlights include Hoynes’ belief that Lonnie Chisenhall will still be with the Tribe next season rather than be traded or non-tendered this winter, doubt that Jay Bruce would be a legitimate Indians trade target and the idea that Wilin Rosario might be of some interest to add pop to Cleveland’s lineup.
  • Would a reunion with Bartolo Colon be a good move for the Athletics?  Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com looks at the pros and cons Oakland faces in signing the veteran right-hander.

NL East Notes: Zobrist, Minor, Ozuna, Jennings

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Earlier today, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported that the Mets, Nationals and Braves were among the teams most interested in Ben Zobrist.  The Braves are a somewhat surprising candidate since they appear to be rebuilding, but Rosenthal tweets that Atlanta likes Zobrist as a role model for its young players as the team moves into its new ballpark in 2017.  Braves GM John Coppolella declined comment on the report, only telling Rosenthal (Twitter links) that he “can’t comment on any free agent pursuits, but we will explore every possible opportunity to improve [the] club in the short- and long-term. Ben Zobrist brings so much to the table on and off the field that he could help all 30 teams.”

Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • Mike Minor’s fate is still up in the air as the Braves approach the non-tender deadline on December 2, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  Minor missed all of 2015 recovering from labrum surgery and suffered a setback in early November that has limited him to stretching and range-of-motion exercises.  As such, the Braves still haven’t seen Minor throw off a mound, which Copplella indicated a few weeks ago as a significant factor in the team’s decision.  The GM tells O’Brien that the Braves are still gathering more information about Minor’s status, and he praised Minor and agent B.B. Abbott for their openness.
  • The Mariners still have interest in Marcell Ozuna but they’re unlikely to meet the Marlins’ asking price of Taijuan Walker in exchange, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports (Twitter link).  The two teams were known to be discussing possible Ozuna deals earlier this week, with reports coming that Walker “isn’t available” in trade talks.
  • Former Marlins manager and GM Dan Jennings tells Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that he has no regrets about his move from the front office to the dugout, calling it “the best experience he’s had in 30 years in baseball” and saying he “absolutely would do it over again” (Twitter link).
  • Jennings also gave his opinion on Ozuna’s struggles in 2015 and the rumors of Jose Fernandez’s issues within the Marlins clubhouse (audio link), saying that he had no issues with Fernandez, calling him “one of the best competitors I’ve ever been around in 30 years.“
  • A businessman approached Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria about buying the team only to be told that Loria has no intention of selling, Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald writes.  This interested buyer hopes that Loria may change his mind after the Marlins host the 2017 All-Star Game.  The Marlins indicated to him that if Loria ever did look to sell the club, the asking price would be $1 billion, well north of the $650MM estimation of the team’s value as calculated by Forbes Magazine.
  • Yunel Escobar could be a good trade chip for the Nationals since the club seems to have its starting infield set, MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel writes.  On the other hand, Escobar could also be valuable depth given some of the question marks surrounding that infield — Anthony Rendon could get hurt, Danny Espinosa could regress to his 2013-14 form or Trea Turner may not quickly adjust to the majors.  I would think the Nats may only shop Escobar if they land Zobrist, in which case Espinosa (the better defender) would become the backup infielder.

AL East Notes: Hanley, Madson, Happ, Rays

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Hanley Ramirez “is going to be our first baseman,” a high-ranking Red Sox source tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.  The club is committed to using Ramirez at first in 2016 and the Sox have mapped out a rough 140-game schedule for Ramirez at the position.  The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported earlier today that the Red Sox were shopping Ramirez.  While this statement from Bradford’s source won’t end that speculation, it only makes sense that the club is preparing as if Ramirez will be on the roster rather than assuming a trade partner will be found.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski also said the Sox were intent on using Ramirez at first during his season-end media conference, for what it’s worth.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox will likely need to make a decision about whether to keep or trade Ramirez before the Winter Meetings if they want a shot at signing Chris Davis, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes.  Davis could well agree to a deal at the Meetings, leaving Boston looking for lower-tier first basemen as platoon options to share time with Travis Shaw and utilityman Brock Holt.  Signing Davis before trading Ramirez, of course, isn’t feasible since it would leave the Sox with zero negotiating position in trade talks.
  • The Blue Jays are looking at relievers with closing experience, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter link), and Ryan Madson is one of the names under consideration.  Madson had a tremendous year as the Phillies’ closer in 2011 but then missed the next three seasons with injuries before reviving his career in the Royals’ bullpen in 2015.  In looking for former closers, it stands to reason that the Jays are still considering stretching out current ninth-inning man Roberto Osuna as a starter.  The Tigers and Dodgers have also been rumored to be interested in Madson this offseason.
  • J.A. Happ discussed signing with the Blue Jays in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), saying that multiple teams showed interest but “Toronto was really aggressive” in making a deal happen.  Happ was also swayed by his past stint in Toronto, his good relationships with John Gibbons and pitching coach Pete Walker, and the fact that the Jays look to be contenders again next year.  The southpaw said the Pirates, his former club, were one of the clubs with interest but talks “never quite got there” (hat tip to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).
  • The Rays seem to overhaul their bullpen every winter but their 2016 relief corps appears to be mostly set, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee, Steve Geltz and three out-of-options arms in Enny Romero, Xavier Cedeno and Alex Colome seem to be the top six, with Andrew Bellatti and newcomer Danny Farquhar also on hand and probably a couple of veterans on minor league deals to eventually be signed for additional depth.  Of course, Topkin notes that this stable bullpen plan could be greatly shuffled if the strong interest in Boxberger and McGee actually induces the Rays to part with one in a trade.
  • In other AL East notes from earlier today, the Blue Jays’ GM search is down to two known finalists, the Orioles have some interest in Denard Span and MLBTR’s Zach Links compiled another set of division notes.

Orioles Interested In Denard Span

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The Orioles have “some level of interest” in free agent outfielder Denard Span, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  It isn’t clear exactly how deep this interest is, Kubatko notes, though Span’s name has been discussed within Baltimore’s front office with some pro-Span voices feeling he would be a fit as the team’s new right fielder.

Span has only played in 124 games in right during his career and none since 2009, though his normal center field spot obviously isn’t an option in Baltimore due to Adam Jones’ presence.  Advanced metrics like UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved paint Span as a strong defensive center fielder for much of his career but he’s been below-average in both categories in each of the last two seasons, so a move to right may be necessary anyway as he enters his age-32 season.

Switching to a less-strenuous outfield position may also help keep Span off the DL, which is no small matter in the wake of his injury-plagued 2015 season.  Between recovering from offseason core muscle surgery, a bad back and then hip surgery in late August, Span played in just 61 games for Washington last year.  The good news is that when he did play, he was still very effective (.301/.365/.431 in 275 PA and a perfect 11-for-11 in steals) and he would fill a void for Baltimore as a leadoff hitter with on-base skills.  Kubatko implies that Span’s health is the Orioles’ biggest concern in deciding whether or not to sign him — while every team undoubtedly weighs such factors, the O’s have been very particular in the past about avoiding players with injury red flags.

Span’s shortened 2015 lowered his price tag, though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes still projected Span to receive a three-year, $39MM deal this winter.  A contract in that range seems reasonable for a medium-spending team like Baltimore, though between four guaranteed contracts and a large arbitration class, the O’s already have around $93MM committed to next year’s payroll and they still need to address both corner outfield slots, the starting rotation, bullpen and first base.

That last position could be filled if the Orioles were to re-sign Chris Davis, though he would account for another $20MM+ in salary.  The O’s have also been rumored to be interested in signing Yovani Gallardo or in trading for Jay Bruce or Neil Walker, so the team certainly appears to be weighing all options in deciding how to address its various roster holes.

Extension Candidate: Jose Bautista

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In the wake of Jose Bautista’s breakout 2010 season, the Blue Jays signed the right fielder to a five-year, $65MM extension that covered his final year of arbitration eligibility and first four free agent seasons.  (It also included a $14MM club option on the 2016 campaign.)  This extension generated quite a bit of controversy at the time.  An MLBTR poll revealed that over 72 percent of readers polled felt the deal was unwarranted, and several pundits felt the Jays should’ve sold high on Bautista rather than gamble that his out-of-nowhere slugging prowess wouldn’t just as suddenly disappear.

Instead, that extension turned out to be one of Alex Anthopoulos’ canniest moves as Toronto’s general manager.  Bautista has averaged a .933 OPS over the last five seasons, and he leads all players with 173 home runs over that same span.  Needless to say, that $65MM deal has turned into one of the largest bargains in the sport, and the club’s decision to pick up Bautista’s $14MM option for the coming season was the easiest of no-brainers.Jose Bautista

With this track record under his belt (and in the wake of a certain instantly-iconic postseason blast), Bautista has a lot of negotiating power on his side if the Jays want to negotiate an extension this offseason.  That being said, there are a large number of factors to consider in this particularly interesting extension case, as if Bautista and the Jays were to reach a new deal, it would very likely set a new contractual precedent.

Bautista is still hitting at an elite level as he enters his age-35 season, and thus he doesn’t really have any comparables among past players with at least 6 years of service time who signed multi-year extensions.  Looking at veteran sluggers who have signed big free agent deals in recent years, Bautista has out-performed the likes of Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz or Carlos Beltran and also lacks major baggage like Cruz’s PED suspension history or the torn ACL that cost Martinez his entire 2012 season.  Since V-Mart was limited to DH-only duty and still received a $17MM average annual value, Bautista and agent Jay Alou can certainly make the case that Bautista’s superior hitting numbers and added defensive value deserves a $20MM+ AAV.

It may sound like a big salary for a player in his mid-30’s, yet power is a valuable commodity.  Tim Dierkes predicts that five of this winter’s free agents (Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon) will all find deals with an AAV north of $20MM per season; add Bautista to that group, and he and Davis topped them all by each posting a 147 wRC+ in 2015.  There’s enough interest in Ben Zobrist that he could also conceivably find a four-year deal entering his age-35 season, and while Zobrist far outpaces Bautista in defensive versatility, Bautista is also the far superior hitter.  To sum up, if Bautista hit the open market this winter, he’d very likely find a four-year deal in the $80MM-$100MM range.

This is the price tag the Blue Jays will need to approach in order to extend their star.  If they’re open to meeting this price, it might be a smart move to tear up Bautista’s 2016 contract and essentially start the extension next season by giving him a raise to at least $20MM and then three more $20MM+ seasons through 2019 (with possibly a vesting option for 2020).  Starting a four-year extension in 2017 would mean the Jays are on the hook for a big salary in 2020 when Bautista would be entering his age-40 season.  If I’m the Jays, I’d much rather pay Bautista a $20MM+ salary next year than I would for 2020 since the team is obviously much more confident that Bautista will still be a top run producer in the short term.

We’ve already looked at the pros of a Bautista deal, so now let’s focus on the cons.  Despite Bautista’s consistency, guaranteeing big money to any slugger in his mid-30’s carries a lot of risk.  Of the three veteran free agents I cited earlier, Martinez and Beltran both struggled through injury-plagued down years in the first seasons of their latest contracts.  Bautista’s 2012 and 2013 seasons were both shortened by injuries — a bad wrist that required surgery after the 2012 campaign and a bruised hip that led the Jays to shut Bautista down in late 2013.

He also played through a shoulder injury for much of 2015 that didn’t much affect his hitting, though it weakened his usually-strong throwing arm and may have contributed to his subpar defensive metrics (-3 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.5 UZR/150).  Bautista’s defensive numbers in right field have fluctuated over the years, though it also wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2015 stats are the first sign of a permanent downswing.

So if the Blue Jays were to extend Bautista, it would be under the assumption that he might only be a couple of seasons away from permanent first base/DH duty.  It’s this scenario that poses the biggest question mark to a Bautista extension, as the Jays already have Edwin Encarnacion as a full-time 1B/DH.  Encarnacion is also eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, is 26 months younger than Bautista and he’s posted slightly better numbers in some notable stat categories since the start of the 2012 season.

Bautista: 2266 PA, 130 HRs, 355 runs, .261/.377/.522, .387 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 18 fWAR

Encarnacion: 2431 PA, 151 HRs, 352 runs, .274/.371/.549, .391 wOBA, 149 wRC+, 16.3 fWAR

In Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto already has two major salaries on the books for the next four and five years, respectively.  Another big long-term commitment will be added if the club extends Josh Donaldson.  It’s hard to see the Blue Jays committing over $40MM per season in additional salary through the rest of the 2010’s to two more players, especially two players in their mid-30’s who would be locked into the first base and DH spots.

Unless Bautista or Encarnacion could somehow be talked into another team-friendly deal, the Jays may well have to choose which of the two franchise cornerstones they want to keep in the fold.  Encarnacion is younger but Bautista is the better athlete of the two.  In terms of pure dollars, Bautista’s age makes him slightly cheaper to extend since Encarnacion would likely push for another guaranteed season or two.  Then again, if the Jays are willing to spend big money to retain a slugger, going with the younger option makes more sense if they feel all else is equal or if they feel Encarnacion will age better over the next few years.

Optics will also play a big role in a Bautista extension.  The Blue Jays organization already took a PR hit with its revived fanbase this offseason given the awkward nature of Anthopoulos’ departure.  It wouldn’t help public perception of new president/CEO Mark Shapiro or the Rogers Commnications ownership group if a new deal couldn’t be worked out with the face of the franchise.  Bautista hasn’t been shy about expressing his opinions on the club’s business over the years, and one suspects he would speak up if he doesn’t feel the Jays are making a concerted effort to extend him.

From Bautista’s perspective, an extension would allow him to remain in a familiar spot, keep him playing for a contender if the Jays keep up their 2015 form and, in all likelihood, spend the rest of his career in Toronto.  Given all of the factors that will go into Bautista’s extension case, it will fascinating to see if the two sides can reach a new deal or if Bautista will be tossing a bat while wearing another team’s uniform in 2017.

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

Quick Hits: Holliday, Davis, Price, Cubs, Padres, Relievers, CBA

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In response to a reader question about Matt Holliday as a possible trade candidate, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch doubts the Cardinals would move a such strong bat since the team’s main winter goal is to add offense.  Langosch isn’t sure if the Cards have any interest in dealing Holliday or if he would accept a trade via his 10-and-5 veto rights.  Even at age 35 and battling injuries last season, Holliday still posted a very respectable .279/.394/.410 line over 277 plate appearances.  2016 is his last guaranteed year under contract (St. Louis has a $17MM club option on him for 2017) so it’s also not like Holliday is a long-term roadblock for the club’s upcoming young outfielders.  Here’s some more from around baseball as we look forward to leftover turkey tomorrow…

  • The Astros aren’t likely to be big players for Chris Davis, a source familiar with the situation tells Evan Drelllich of the Houston Chronicle.  Davis will command a big price and Houston already has a lot of high-power, high-strikeout hitters.  I myself speculated that Davis and the Astros could be a fit in my Astros Offseason Outlook piece, under the logic that the team needs a big left-handed bat, Davis is a Texas native and first base would be open if Chris Carter and Evan Gattis were non-tendered.  Drellich’s piece looks at that first base situation for the Astros, and the presence of prospects Tyler White and A.J. Reed might also make a Davis signing unlikely.
  • Six general managers who recently spoke with Peter Gammons believe the Red Sox will sign David Price this offseason.  “Boston will go $30-40M above anyone else” to land Price, one NL GM opines.  This is just the latest chatter connecting Price to the Sox, and while Gammons writes that “some feel he is uneasy about Boston, but David is so sophisticated, so talented and so intelligent he will make the best of any situation.”  Another GM, however, speculates that the Cardinals could be the ones to make the big play for Price, passing on re-signing Jason Heyward in the process.
  • Gammons shares some more chatter from his sources, including “a lot of John Lackey and Alex Gordon to the Cubs speculation.”
  • Recently designated players like John Axford, Daniel Nava, A.J. Griffin, Danny Hultzen and Wilin Rosario could all be intriguing targets for the Padres, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune opines.  The first three are free agents, Hultzen was outrighted off the Mariners’ 40-man roster and Rosario is still in DFA limbo.
  • Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris tries to identify some of the smaller-name or underrated relief arms on the open market that could blossom into bargain pickups.  The Cubs are one example of a club that has built an entire bullpen (and a strong one, at that) out of such under-the-radar pitchers, as Sarris notes.
  • One of the underlying stories of 2016 will be the negotiations between MLB and the players union over the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes.  Stark’s piece highlights some of the major issues that are likely to play a big role in the upcoming talks, ranging from revenue sharing, free agency and the qualifying offer, the length of the season, a possible international amateur draft and more.  Another interesting topic could be how the league may address teams “tanking” several seasons in an attempt to rebuild, and possible solutions include a draft lottery or a rule prohibiting teams from drafting in the top five in consecutive seasons.
  • The good news about the CBA talks is that multiple sources on both sides tell Stark that everyone wants to keep the labor peace that baseball has enjoyed for over two decades.  “It’s a 9-and-a-half-billion dollar industry.  Nobody is going to want to blow it up,” one source tells Stark.

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