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Poll: Will The Royals Trade Seth Lugo?

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The Royals’ 2025 season has not gone as they surely hoped it would after they surprised the baseball world with a playoff berth in 2024 and invested heavily into the team over the offseason. While they entered June over .500, a brutal 8-18 swoon last month left the team very abruptly buried in the AL playoff picture. Their 40-47 record leaves them with a 14-game deficit in the AL Central that already seems all but impossible to overcome, and even their Wild Card positioning leaves them 5.5 games back of a playoff spot. A rotator cuff strain sidelined Cole Ragans last month, and the loss of the club’s lefty ace will make it even harder for them to turn things around.

All of that has left the Royals looking like a potential deadline seller. A closer look at the club’s roster reveals very few short-term assets who would bring back a significant haul on the trade market, however. Hunter Harvey is injured, while Cavan Biggio and Mark Canha have both been well below average hitters this year. That leaves right-hander Seth Lugo as the only player on the roster who can depart for free agency this winter who could bring back a notable return for the Royals.

There’s few contenders who wouldn’t benefit from adding Lugo to their rotation. The right-hander was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award last year with a dominant season, and he’s kept the good times rolling in 2025 with a sparkling 2.74 ERA in 15 starts. That’s the sort of front-of-the-rotation, surefire playoff starter that contenders dream of adding to their rotation mix, at least on paper. If Lugo could bring back an exciting return for the Royals, particularly an MLB-ready return, then it could make sense to sell the righty in order to maximize the 2026-30 seasons, after which point superstar Bobby Witt Jr. will have his first opportunity to opt-out of his extension and test free agency.

As clearcut as the argument for dealing Lugo may sound, however, there are real reasons to think the Royals may hesitate. For one thing, a monster return for Lugo is hardly guaranteed. As strong as his raw run prevention numbers have been this year, his peripherals tell a different story. The veteran’s strikeout rate has ticked slightly downward, his walk rate has jumped up to 8.0% after sitting at 5.6% last year, and his otherworldly ability to keep the ball in the park last year appears to have been a single-season mirage. With a 4.18 FIP and 4.10 SIERA, it’s possible rival clubs will value Lugo as more of a mid-rotation starter than a recent Cy Young candidate.

His value is further decreased by the $15MM player option he holds for the 2026 season. That’s a figure Lugo would certainly be able to beat in free agency if healthy, meaning that he’s very likely to opt out unless he suffers an injury, at which point the acquiring club would be on the hook for the full price and likely get minimal production. Similar contractual situations have caused issues in trade talks in the past. Both the Cubs and Yankees have entertained trade offers on Marcus Stroman in recent years but found difficulties getting much of a market for his services due to “poison pill” contract options, and even future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer had to waive his ability to opt out of the 2024 campaign for the Rangers to be willing to acquire him from the Mets during the summer of 2023. It’s not at all difficult to believe interested teams could have similar reservations regarding Lugo.

If the return for Lugo isn’t robust, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals just keeping the veteran. While Witt is young and under long-term control, other pieces of the club’s core like Michael Wacha, Carlos Estevez, and Salvador Perez aren’t exactly getting any younger. Even younger players like Jonathan India and Kris Bubic aren’t far from the end of their team control windows, and that could leave the Royals motivated to try to make the 2026 season count. Keeping Lugo in the fold would help that goal, and while it’s typically unlikely for a small market club to keep a star player in free agency, that may not be the case in this instance.

With Lugo eligible for the Qualifying Offer this winter, it’s not impossible to imagine him either sticking around on that one-year pact if it’s offered to him or the sides using it as a jumping off point to work out an extension. The Royals typically wouldn’t be expected to have the sort of financial muscle needed to retain a pitcher of Lugo’s caliber, but the veteran turns 36 this November and would likely be limited to short-term offers in free agency even if he isn’t attached to the Qualifying Offer. Should Kansas City extend him the QO, it could further depress his ability to land a big contract. If the Royals like their odds of keeping Lugo around after this year, it would be understandable if they decided not to trade him.

How do MLBTR readers think the Royals will ultimately handle Lugo? Will he be traded this summer, or will they hold onto him and hope to keep him around longer term? Have your say in the poll below:

Is Seth Lugo Going To Be Traded This Summer?
Yes 63.57% (1,361 votes)
No 36.43% (780 votes)
Total Votes: 2,141

The Opener: Mariners, Muncy, Jays, Yankees

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Mariners rotation shuffle:

The Mariners optioned fifth starter Emerson Hancock to the minors yesterday. While they don’t necessarily need a fifth starter for a few days, manager Dan Wilson told reporters yesterday right-hander Logan Evans will be getting the start in today’s game (via Andrew Destin of the Associated Press). That will allow the Mariners to push righty Bryan Woo and the rest of the rotation back a day to get some extra rest ahead of the All-Star break. A rookie who made his MLB debut earlier this year, Evans has a 3.38 ERA in seven MLB starts despite a 4.76 FIP. He’ll be tasked with taking on the Royals and righty Seth Lugo later today, and his performance could end up deciding whether he remains in the rotation for the remainder of the first half or if he’s replaced with another spot starter down the line.

2. Muncy to undergo MRI:

Dodgers infielder Max Muncy needed to be helped off the field yesterday after suffering a knee injury on the bases, but after the game manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Sonja Chen) that the team is “optimistic” after initial testing. Still, Muncy is being sent for an MRI today to determine the severity of the injury. Those results could be back in time for the club’s game against the White Sox tonight. An IL trip for Muncy would likely mean an opening for Hyeseong Kim to receive more frequent playing time, though losing a .252/.377/.461 hitter like Muncy from the lineup would certainly be a blow for the Dodgers.

3. Blue Jays challenge for the AL East lead:

Yesterday’s game between the Blue Jays and Yankees was a wild one. The Jays broke out to an 8-0 lead, only for the Yankees to come all the way back before Toronto ultimately won 11-9. After that exciting win, the two clubs now sit tied atop the AL East heading into the final game of the series. Veteran Chris Bassitt has a 4.29 ERA in 17 starts this year and will be on the mound for Toronto coming off a blow-up outing where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned) in just two innings against the Red Sox. He’ll try to turn things around against Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who has a 3.09 ERA in 13 starts this season.

Poll: Should The Cubs Trade For A Bat This Summer?

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The Cubs are one of the better teams in the National League this year. Their 50-35 record leaves them tied with the Phillies for the second seed in the NL, and they’ve led their division since April 4 without interruption. Much of that can be attributed to an excellent offense headlined by the offseason addition of Kyle Tucker and the breakout of Pete Crow-Armstrong. With that being said, they lost some steam in the month of June after posting a 13-13 record and watching their lead in the NL Central shrink to just two games.

Between their strong start to the season and their fading lead in the division, Chicago figures to be one of the more aggressive buyers in the game this summer. Most of the focus has been on starting pitching, and for good reason. Shota Imanaga remains a steady front-of-the-rotation arm and Matthew Boyd has been a revelation this year with a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts, but the loss of Justin Steele at the top of the Cubs’ rotation has been felt deeply. Jameson Taillon (85 ERA+), Colin Rea (87 ERA+), and Cade Horton (79 ERA+) have all pitched to middling results even by the standards of a back-of-the-rotation arm, while Ben Brown’s ERA ballooned to 6.13 before he was optioned to Triple-A upon Imanaga’s return from a hamstring strain last week.

Considering that Boyd’s 98 2/3 innings of work is already his highest total since 2019, adding a rotation arm or two is a slam-dunk for this team. That obvious need could be overshadowing another major hole for the Cubs, however. It’s somewhat bold to suggest the team that leads all of baseball in position player fWAR (18.9) and has the third most potent offense in baseball (116 wRC+) could be a bat short, but Chicago has gotten -0.3 fWAR from the third base position this year. That’s the worst figure in baseball, and the team’s 62 wRC+ at the hot corner is ahead of only the Reds and Marlins. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic made a strong case for the Cubs to add another hitter to the lineup earlier this week, and third base is the natural position for Chicago to upgrade.

2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw is currently holding down the for at the position. Grades on Shaw’s defense are mixed, as he has -1 Outs Above Average but +5 Defensive Runs Saved. That latter figure trails only Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ernie Clement, and Caleb Durbin this year. Even if the more optimistic view of Shaw’s defense is taken, however, his offense has been lackluster with a .221/.305/.315 (80 wRC+) in 203 plate appearances this year. He was optioned to the minors for about a month earlier this season, but even since returning his 89 wRC+ is well-below league average. The club’s internal options behind Shaw are uninspiring at best. Vidal Brujan has a wRC+ of 9 this year in a bench role with the team, meaning he’s been 91 below league average offensively. Jon Berti’s wRC+ of 42 is only marginally better. While Justin Turner has improved after an ice cold start to the year, he still carries a wRC+ of just 62 on the season and is overmatched defensively at third base in his age-40 season.

There should be clear upgrades available this summer, if the Cubs are inclined to pursue them. Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks looks like the best bat potentially available at any position, and he’s already clubbed 26 homers as the everyday third baseman in Arizona. Willi Castro is enjoying what could be a career year on the Twins (122 wRC+) and can play all over the diamond, including third base. Even a bench or platoon option could be a substantial improvement given the production of Chicago’s reserves. Ryan McMahon and Hayes have both gotten some trade buzz this summer, but both players are below-average hitters on underwater contracts. More palatable choices who could theoretically be available include Amed Rosario of the Nationals, Ramon Urias of the Orioles, and Abraham Toro of the Red Sox.

It’s hard to argue with the notion that the Cubs could make themselves a better team by adding a third baseman, or at least another infielder who can help carry the load at third base. With that being said, resources are finite. The Cubs’ once-vaunted farm system has taken hits due to the graduations of players like Crow-Armstrong, Shaw, and Horton, trades for Tucker and Michael Busch, and tough seasons for some top prospects like James Triantos. They still have a fairly robust group of near big league ready talent to trade from, but it could be hard to part with Owen Caissie as long as the possibility of Tucker leaving in free agency this winter remains on the table.

Trading for help on offense would necessarily require using capital that otherwise could have been spent to add another starter. Perhaps targeting a less expensive bench contributor could be a way to add infield help without compromising the club’s ability to go after a big name rotation add or two like Sandy Alcantara, Merrill Kelly, or Mitch Keller, but it could be hard for the Cubs to justify spending resources on another bat to further bolster an offense that has averaged more than five runs per game this season.

How do MLBTR readers view Chicago’s third base situation? Should the Cubs be aggressive in trying to add a starting third baseman to supplant Shaw down the stretch? Should they stick with their current offense and focus entirely on adding pitching? Or perhaps they should try to bolster their depth with a low-cost bench addition? Have your say in the poll below:

How Should The Cubs Handle Third Base This Summer?
Focus on pitching and trust Shaw to handle third base. 47.24% (1,198 votes)
Try to find a bench piece who can complement Shaw and bolster the infield depth. 26.66% (676 votes)
Make adding a starting third baseman a priority this summer. 26.10% (662 votes)
Total Votes: 2,536

The Opener: Profar, Kershaw, Doubleheaders

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Profar returns from suspension:

Jurickson Profar played in just four games with the Braves before being hit with an 80-game PED suspension, which is set to expire today. The switch-hitting outfielder signed a three-year, $42MM deal in free agency but has thus far been a non-factor. His last performance of any real substance was the 2024 season where he slashed .280/.380/.459 with credible peripherals in 158 games for the Padres. The PED suspension could call some of that breakout into question, but Atlanta is surely hoping that he’s still the same player they thought he was when they gave him that three-year deal over the offseason. The Braves, currently 38-46, have fallen below the Marlins in the NL East standings. They’re 7.5 games out of a playoff spot and recently lost ace Chris Sale for the foreseeable future. Can Profar provide a spark?

2. Kershaw on the cusp of 3,000 Ks:

Three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is knocking on history’s door. The southpaw currently sits at 2,997 strikeouts for his career, leaving him just three away from becoming the 20th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,000. Kershaw isn’t missing bats like he did in his prime — his 18.6% strikeout rate is several percentage points shy of league average — but he still boasts a 3.03 ERA in 38 2/3 innings of work this year. He’s very likely to reach this illustrious milestone in front of the home crowd at Dodger Stadium tonight when he takes the mound opposite the White Sox at 7:10pm local time.

3. Doubleheaders galore:

Three games were postponed due to inclement weather yesterday, and all three are set to be made up for today as part of split-admission doubleheaders. Fans with tickets to the game between the Padres and Phillies that was postponed yesterday can use their tickets to attend Game 2 at 6:15pm local time in Philadelphia. Fans with paid tickets to the Mets’ postponed game against the Brewers will be able to use them for Game 1 at 1:10pm local time in New York. Fans with tickets to the Nationals’ postponed game against the Tigers can use their tickets to attend Game 1 at 1:05pm local time in the nation’s capital. You can click the following links for more information on the postponed games between the Padres and Phillies, the Mets and Brewers, and the Nationals/Tigers courtesy of MLB.com, including information on potential refunds or ticket exchanges.

Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?

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The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.

Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.

That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.

For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.

On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.

Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.

Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.

How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Twins Buy Or Sell This Summer?
They should sell off short-term assets while making controllable additions to try and balance the two approaches. 47.10% (973 votes)
They should sell in order to set themselves up for the future. 42.45% (877 votes)
They should buy in order to maximize the 2025 season. 10.45% (216 votes)
Total Votes: 2,066

The Opener: Orioles, Milestones, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for throughout the day today:

1. Orioles catching conundrum:

Orioles catcher Chadwick Tromp was pulled from yesterday’s game due to lower back tightness, a move that forced the Orioles to lose the DH for the remainder of the game so Gary Sánchez could come into the game to take over behind the plate. That suggested Tromp might be dealing with something serious, and interim manager Tony Mansolino confirmed as much to reporters (including Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner) after the game. Mansolino suggested that Tromp was “likely” headed to the IL due to a back strain. That creates a real issue for the Orioles given that they’ve already lost Adley Rutschman and Maverick Handley to the injured list recently. The club will need to add a fourth catcher to the 40-man roster in order to have a healthy backup to Sánchez. Jacob Stallings would seem to be the top candidate, although 20-year-old top prospect Samuel Basallo is already knocking on the doors of the majors with fantastic offense in Triple-A: .264/.390/.579, 16 home runs in 218 plate appearances.

2. Milestones on the horizon:

Several veteran players are on the cusp of crossing some milestone thresholds. Phillies shortstop Trea Turner is sitting on 299 steals in his career, placing him just one shy of becoming the 171st player in MLB history to reach the 300 milestone. He’ll tie B.J. Upton and Frank Taveras when he gets that 300th bag, though he currently has 42 fewer attempts than Upton and 56 fewer than Taveras. Turner is at 20 steals on the season right now — already one more than he tallied in 2024. Starling Marte and Jose Altuve are the only active players with more steals than Turner.

Guardians first baseman Carlos Santana, meanwhile, is just one two-bagger away from becoming the 198th player to reach 400 doubles in his career. He’d join Nolan Arenado (who just reached that milestone Sunday), Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen and Freddie Freeman as the only active players with 400-plus doubles — not bad company!

Over in San Diego, the countdown to 2000 hits is on for Manny Machado, who currently sits just six knocks shy of that threshold. He won’t get there tonight, but within the next few days Machado could become the 298th player in MLB history to reach that illustrious round number. He trails only Freeman, McCutchen, Goldschmidt and Altuve for the lead among active players.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

It’s now July 1, which means we’re officially just a month away from this year’s trade deadline. Chatter about trade season has already begun in earnest, with clubs on the fence between buying and selling nearing decision time. While it will be difficult for another in-season blockbuster to top the Rafael Devers deal from June, a handful of smaller deals have started to come together around the league as well. Whether you’re looking ahead to the deadline or still trying to sort between the contenders and pretenders, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Ross Atkins Discusses Deadline Needs, Santander

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The Blue Jays have finally put the lengthy Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension saga behind them and are in the midst of a resurgent season with a 45-38 record that puts them in third place in a competitive AL East, just two games back of the Yankees for the division lead. In the Wild Card race, they’re in the second of three spots with a 2.5 game cushion over the Mariners. Despite all of that success in the standings, there’s plenty of cracks in their performance. That’s best represented by their (slightly) negative run differential of -3. That would suggest they should be around .500 rather than seven games over at this point, so there’s clearly work to be done on the roster.

Club GM Ross Atkins acknowledged as much to reporters (including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) earlier today, when he said that the Blue Jays “can obviously be better” before adding that the front office will “focus on that” ahead of the trade deadline. As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Atkins also added that the club has the financial support of ownership headed into the deadline and will have the ability to “flex that muscle” this summer. That suggests at least some willingness to take on salary in trade, which is notable for a club that’s already well into luxury tax territory this year. It was a somewhat roundabout way of confirming that his team figures to buy this trade season, but that didn’t stop Atkins from mentioning a pair of needs: pitching help and a right-handed bat.

That those would be needs on the team’s wish list is hardly surprising. The Blue Jays have a bottom-five rotation in the majors by both ERA and FIP this year, and that seems unlikely to change any time soon with Bowden Francis on the injured list and Max Scherzer still working through his nagging thumb issue. As noted by Matheson following Scherzer’s 71-pitch start earlier this evening, manager John Schneider told reporters after today’s game that Scherzer is battling through some “fatigue” in his thumb. That seems to be a day-to-day issue that could be managed without a trip to the shelf, but even if he can avoid the injured list Scherzer may be limited by his ailing thumb going forward.

That should make adding starting pitching a priority for the Jays. Potential front-of-the-rotation arms who could be available this summer include Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen, but both players are going through down seasons and aren’t exactly surefire bets to put up elite numbers. More stable veterans like Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller could be attractive alternatives for a team like the Jays that’s in need of steady innings, but Atkins has suggested the club is more focused on adding depth to its pitching staff. Perhaps that means wading only into the shallow end of the starting market and focusing on relatively low-cost veteran rentals like Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen.

The club’s search for a right-handed bat, then, could take priority. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and DH Marcell Ozuna are perhaps the top righty hitters who could be available this summer, though neither Arizona nor Atlanta is guaranteed to sell. Even if they do, there’s some questions to be asked regarding either player’s fit in Toronto. George Springer is best served acting as a DH for the Jays, and Addison Barger has enjoyed something of a breakout season while splitting time between right field and third base for the club. If the Blue Jays are looking for a lower cost addition with more versatility, perhaps someone like Nationals infielder Amed Rosario or Red Sox infielder Romy Gonzalez could be of interest.

One other way to help the club hit against lefties would be a healthy and effective return from switch-hitting slugger Anthony Santander. Santander is a career 112 wRC+ hitter against lefties who posted an even stronger 121 figure against them last year, but he’s been on the injured list for a month now due to inflammation in his left shoulder. Atkins revealed today (as relayed by Davidi) that Santander actually suffered a subluxation (partial separation) in his left shoulder after crashing into the outfield wall in Anaheim in early May. Atkins notes that Santander initially tried to play through the injury, but he hit just .122/.265/.195 between the end of the club’s series against the Angels and his placement on the IL three weeks later. MLB.com adds that Atkins is “optimistic” that Santander could resume hitting soon and adds that he may be able to return to the Jays in late July.

Tucker Barnhart To Retire

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Former Gold Glove catcher Tucker Barnhart is set to retire, as agent Steve Rath of the Ballengee Group tells Robert Murray of FanSided. Barnhart played for the Reds, Tigers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Rangers across his 12 seasons in the majors.

Born and raised in Indiana, Barnhart was drafted by the Reds in the tenth round of the 2009 draft out of Brownsburg High School, just two hours from Cincinnati. As a high school catcher, his path to the big leagues was a long one. Barnhart didn’t make his debut until 2014, and only appeared in 21 games when he did finally make it to the show. The 2015 season saw him take on a much larger role, however, as Devin Mesoraco was sidelined by injury. That left the catcher position to Brayan Pena and Barnhart, the latter of whom proved to be a strong defender but hit a fairly lackluster .252/.324/.326 in 81 games.

Despite that unimpressive offense, Barnhart’s work behind the plate was impressive enough that he became Cincinnati’s primary catcher starting in 2016. His offense trended upwards enough from 2016 to 2018 that he was more or less on par with the average catcher in the league (87 wRC+), and he won the first Gold Glove award of his career in 2017 amid a 3.6 bWAR season. That 2017 campaign was enough to convince the Reds to sign Barnhart to a $16MM extension, locking him in with the club for at least the next four seasons. His offense took a step backwards starting in 2019, as he hit just .235/.318/.375 (79 wRC+) over his final three seasons with the Reds, but he remained a stalwart defender and won his second career Gold Glove during the shortened 2020 season.

After parts of eight seasons in Cincinnati, Barnhart was traded to Detroit ahead of the 2022 season, giving the Tigers the opportunity to exercise a $7.5MM team option on his services for that year. Barnhart struggled in his lone season with the club, however, hitting just .221/.287/.267 (67 wRC+) while his defense behind the plate slipped somewhat. Barnhart was still able to secure a two-year, $6.5MM guarantee from the Cubs that offseason, but he posted just a 55 wRC+ in 43 games before being designated for assignment by the club. Since then, Barnhart has caught for the Diamondbacks and Rangers in the majors after signing minor league deals with both organizations and also spent a brief stint in the Dodgers’ farm system. He’s appeared in 39 MLB games over the past two seasons with a .181/.294/.213 that’s offset somewhat by his continually solid defense.

Barnhart was let go by the Rangers earlier this month but re-signed with the club on a minor league deal shortly thereafter. Evidently, he’s decided he’d rather call it a career than play out the season in the minors. He’ll finish his career with 920 games played in the majors, two Gold Glove awards, 6.9 bWAR/5.8 fWAR, 662 hits, and 53 home runs. He hit .241/.318/.351 overall during his time in the majors. MLBTR congratulations Barnhart on a fine career in the majors and wishes him all the best in whatever comes next.

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

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The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.

The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.

After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)

Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.

Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.

Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.

As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.

Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.

How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?
Yes, they should trade him before this year's deadline. 69.42% (3,510 votes)
No, he should be a building block in their rotation. 21.93% (1,109 votes)
Yes, but they should wait until the offseason or next year's deadline. 8.64% (437 votes)
Total Votes: 5,056

The Opener: Brown, Waldron, Schmitt

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Brown to sign?

Outfielder Seth Brown elected free agency last week after being designated for assignment by the Athletics, and a report from MLBTR’s Anthony Franco yesterday afternoon indicates that Brown is deciding between three teams and is likely to sign somewhere within the coming days. The 32-year-old outfielder struggled badly through 38 games with the A’s this year, slashing just .185/.303/.262 across 76 plate appearances. Tough as this season has been for Brown, however, he hit a respectable .225/.289/.426 with 73 homers and 102 wRC+ from 2021 to 2024. He also boasts a career 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so a club that struggles to produce against righties could benefit from his services if they’re willing to look past his poor start to the year.

2. Waldron to make season debut:

Right-hander Matt Waldron is set to make his season debut later today, per a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Waldron will be on the mound for the Padres in Philadelphia when they take on the Phillies at 6:35pm local time (3:35pm CT). The knuckleballer posted a pedestrian 4.91 ERA (84 ERA+) in 146 2/3 innings of work last year, but his 4.26 FIP and a 4.13 SIERA both indicated that he could benefit from some positive regression in the future. He’s made five starts at Triple-A this year since returning from an oblique strain that sidelined him at the beginning of the season, and now that he’s back in the big leagues he’ll face off against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (2.45 ERA).

3. Schmitt to undergo MRI:

The Giants’ infield has been stretched thin lately as third baseman Casey Schmitt has been forced to sit since he was hit in the wrist by a pitch on June 25. A CT scan showed no fracture and he was diagnosed with a bone bruise, but Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Schmitt is set to undergo an MRI once they arrive in Arizona for tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks. That could mean that more details on Schmitt’s injury and whether or not he’ll ultimately require a trip to the injured list will be available as soon as today. Christian Koss has been at third base with Brett Wisely at second while Schmitt has been on the mend so far, though a trip to the IL would mean a tough loss for the Giants’ lineup as Schmitt has slashed .276/.360/.439 in 34 games this year.

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