Orioles Outright Cody Poteet
The Orioles announced this afternoon that right-hander Cody Poteet has been activated from the 60-day injured list and outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. The club had not previously announced that Poteet was placed on waivers, but he evidently cleared and now will head to the minor leagues if he accepts the assignment.
Poteet, 31, made just one appearance for the Orioles this year where he surrendered five runs on six hits in 2 2/3 innings of work while walking two and striking out just one. A fourth-round pick by the Marlins all the way back in 2015, Poteet did not make his big league debut until 2021. He spent two years in Miami as an up-and-down swing man, with a 4.45 ERA and 5.15 FIP in 58 2/3 innings of work. That roughly league-average work (with below average peripherals) on the mound, but a UCL injury limited him in 2022. He signed with the Royals on a minor league deal while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but returned to free agency following the 2023 season having made just one appearance for Triple-A Omaha that year.
Poteet signed a big league deal with the Yankees prior to the 2024 season, and it was in the Bronx where the right-hander posted the best numbers of his career. Poteet made only five appearances (four starts) for New York last year, but in those 24 1/3 frames he posted a sensational 2.22 ERA. The right-hander’s peripherals (including a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 4.03 FIP) weren’t quite as impressive as those raw results, but he still demonstrated the ability to be a valuable depth starter and swing man for the Yankees. He was tendered a contract for the 2025 campaign by the Yankees and stuck around on the club’s 40-man roster but was traded to the Cubs back in December as the return for Cody Bellinger.
The right-hander entered Spring Training with the Cubs but did not make the club’s roster out of camp after a strong showing from non-roster invitee Brad Keller. Poteet was DFA’d to make room for Keller on the roster and found himself back in the AL East shortly thereafter when he was traded to the Orioles in late March. After Poteet made his aforementioned single appearance for the Orioles on April 20, he was shelved with right shoulder inflammation that has kept him out of action ever since. Poteet did begin a rehab assignment last week and threw two scoreless innings for the Norfolk Tides, and now that he’s been activated from the shelf and outrighted to the minors he’ll continue pitching for the Tides through the end of the year if he decides to remain in the organization.
Of course, that’s not necessarily guaranteed. Poteet was outrighted to the minors by the Marlins previously in his career, meaning that he has the opportunity to reject Baltimore’s assignment in favor of electing free agency. Poteet will remain eligible for a team’s postseason roster if he signs with another organization prior to September 1, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land elsewhere as a depth option for a pitching-hungry club still in the playoff hunt. Of course, with Poteet only built up to one inning so far and minimal work at the big league level this season, the righty might also simply go wherever gives him the best shot of cracking a big league roster in September, whether that’s staying in the Orioles organization or signing a fresh contract elsewhere.
Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In
While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.
Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.
While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.
He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.
Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.
When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.
Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom‘s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried‘s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.
With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
-
Tarik Skubal 60% (2,941)
-
Garrett Crochet 30% (1,456)
-
Someone Else 6% (295)
-
Hunter Brown 5% (225)
Total votes: 4,917
The Opener: Sale, Tolle, Tong
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Sale to return:
The Braves are expected to activate ace lefty Chris Sale from the 60-day IL this weekend. The veteran southpaw has been sidelined since June due to a fracture in his ribcage, but prior to that he had been firmly in the conversation to win a second consecutive NL Cy Young award with a 2.52 ERA, a 2.69 FIP, and a 30.8% strikeout rate. While Atlanta has no hope of making the postseason at this point, Sale’s return to action is important for the lefty on an individual level, given his lost seasons from 2020 to 2022, when he made just 11 total starts due to a variety of injuries. If he can take the ball five times down the stretch, he’ll have reached 20 starts in three consecutive seasons since his days as the workhorse ace of the Red Sox back in 2017. The Braves have available space on their 40-man roster to accommodate Sale, so only an active roster move will be needed to activate him.
2. Tolle to debut:
While the former lefty ace of the Red Sox is set to return from the IL in Atlanta this weekend, fans in Boston are hoping they’ll witness the start of another lefty ace’s career at the same time. That’s because left-hander Payton Tolle is expected to be called up for his MLB debut today. The club’s second-round pick in last year’s draft, Tolle has sprinted through the minors, posting a 3.04 ERA in 20 appearances across three levels. He’s been even better since graduating from High-A, with a 2.36 ERA and a 34.2% strikeout rate in 42 innings of work at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Tolle’s rapid ascent will now culminate in a chance to impact a playoff race in the majors as the Red Sox jockey with the Yankees and Mariners for Wild Card positioning down the stretch. The lefty’s first assignment will be a tough one. He’ll be tasked with taking on Pirates ace Paul Skenes (2.07 ERA) at Fenway Park in a game scheduled for 7:10pm local time.
3. Tong to debut:
Tolle isn’t the only top pitching prospect set to make his MLB debut today. Over in the National League, the Mets are set to welcome right-hander Jonah Tong to the majors when he makes his big league debut against the Marlins this evening. The game is scheduled for 7:10pm local time and will see Tong take on another of the sport’s top young arms in righty Eury Perez (3.44 ERA). In 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year, Tong has a dazzling 1.43 ERA to go along with an absurd 40.5% strikeout rate. With the Mets holding onto the NL’s final Wild Card spot at the moment, they’ll be banking on the 2022 seventh-rounder continuing his success in the majors.
Poll: NL Rookie Of The Year Check-In
Within the last few years, the Rookie of the Year award has grown to have more meaning than it had in the past. Changes in the most recent collective bargaining agreement allow the award to bestow a full year of MLB service time on the top two finishers, even if they would have otherwise entered the offseason with less than that. Beyond that, any player who was a top-100 prospect on a pair of prominent preseason lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN) can net his club an extra pick by winning the award if he breaks camp with his club or was called up less than two weeks into the season. That’s raised the stakes on the two Rookie of the Year races, but who will ultimately come out on top?
Here’s a look at this year’s candidates in the National League, listen in alphabetical order by last name:
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves
The 24-year-old Baldwin is having a banner rookie season for Atlanta after an injury suffered by Sean Murphy during Spring Training opened up the Opening Day catcher job. Baldwin took the reins and never looked back. Through 96 games, he’s hitting .276/.347/.454 with a wRC+ of 126. He’s smacked 14 homers in 337 plate appearances, but more impressive is Baldwin’s plate discipline. The youngster is striking out just 16% of the time while walking at a solid 8.9% clip. That production has been enough to get the lion’s share of time behind the plate in spite of Murphy’s status as a former All-Star and Gold Glove award winner on a hefty contract. If there’s an issue with Baldwin’s profile, it’s that he’s a merely pedestrian defender behind the plate. Scouts expected him to be no more than average behind the plate, and so far the metrics have played that out as he has -1 Catching Runs this year according to Statcast. Baldwin and Murphy are now splitting the workload between catcher and DH, so Baldwin should see regular at-bats down the stretch. If he wins the award, he’ll net the Braves a PPI pick.
Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers
Collins celebrated his 28th birthday last month, making him by far the oldest player on this list. He’s been a game changer for an excellent Brewers club in left field, however, with a .270/.368/.421 (125 wRC+) slash line in 109 games. Collins has chipped in 28 extra-base hits and 15 steals and drawn walks at an excellent 12.3% clip. That penchant for drawing walks fuels an on-base percentage that sits just barely outside the top 20 among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year. Collins’ age and lack of a premium defensive position could hold him back in the eyes of some voters, but the switch-hitter does have one big thing going for him: he’s doing his best work now. Since the All-Star break, Collins has hit .288/.377/.475 with a wRC+ of 139.
Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs
The Cubs’ first rounder in the 2022 draft, Horton came up to fill out the rotation in a pinch back in May and has generally looked the part of a quality big league starter. He’s pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 93 2/3 innings of work. That’s by far the best ERA among all rookie pitchers with at least 80 innings, and he’s been on the shortlist for the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break with a microscopic 0.49 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate. Horton’s season-long strikeout rate of just 20.1% isn’t all that impressive, and his relatively limited innings may hurt him with some voters. Even so, the 24-year-old should get plenty of attention with the way he’s pitched in the second half so far, and a big final month could further cement his case. Horton was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the season but wasn’t called up early enough to net the Cubs a pick based on this year’s Rookie of the Year voting (though he could still garner them a pick with a top-3 Cy Young finish before reaching arbitration).
Chad Patrick, RHP, Brewers
Patrick might be overlooked by some voters who could be attracted to the strong second half numbers of Collins and Horton. Even so, he’s a legitimate contender for the award. Patrick’s 105 innings across 21 appearances (20 starts) lead NL rookies. He’s posted a 3.60 ERA with a nearly identical 3.68 FIP while striking out 23.9% of his opponents. Perhaps the biggest flaw in Patrick’s case is that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A for just over a month. He didn’t pitch in the majors between July 5 and Aug. 19. He’s also worn down as the season has gone on, with a 5.09 ERA and 4.45 FIP in his last seven starts. Patrick will need to turn things around in September if he’s going to make a play for the award, but a strong start to his big league career in April and May could be enough to keep him in the conversation.
Other Options
That aforementioned quartet appear to be the likeliest candidates for the award, but they aren’t the only names to consider. Playing time will be a factor for Miami’s Jakob Marsee, but if the 24-year-old can keep hitting the way he has in 26 games since his Aug. 1 recall (.356/.422/.667, 195 wRC+), his otherworldly performance will get some attention anyway. Teammate Agustin Ramirez leads NL rookies in home runs (18) and plate appearances (463), but he’s posted awful defensive marks behind the plate and is sitting on a .287 on-base percentage (.228/.287/.424 overall). Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski was the talk of the game after his first few starts, but he spent two weeks on the injured list after being clipped by a comebacker and has been tagged for 13 earned runs in his past 14 1/3 innings (four starts). He’s only at 43 2/3 innings on the season, too, which hurts his candidacy.
Hyeseong Kim has been an above-average hitter for the Dodgers and contributed defensive versatility, but he’s been on the injured list for a month and is unlikely to get enough playing time to merit consideration. Nationals righty Brad Lord is in the midst of a solid season as a swingman, but a 5.47 ERA in August does him no favors. Third basemen Caleb Durbin and Matt Shaw have both had decent enough years but are sure to be overshadowed by their teammates when it comes to balloting.
Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately come out on top in the NL’s Rookie of the Year balloting? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win NL Rookie of the Year?
-
Drake Baldwin 46% (2,241)
-
Cade Horton 26% (1,263)
-
Isaac Collins 20% (996)
-
Someone Else 7% (360)
-
Chad Patrick 1% (59)
Total votes: 4,919
The Opener: Slaten, Chapman, Pitchers’ Duel
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Slaten to return:
The Red Sox are set to welcome right-hander Justin Slaten back from the injured list today. Slaten went down with shoulder inflammation back in May and has been sidelined ever since. Slaten made his big league debut with Boston in 2024 after being plucked from the Rangers in the 2023 Rule 5 draft and has been excellent. The 27-year-old touts a 3.09 ERA and 2.78 FIP in 78 2/3 big league innings. This year, Slaten pitched in 24 games with a 3.47 ERA and 3.09 FIP. While those numbers are a bit higher than last year, he should still be an asset to the Red Sox bullpen down the stretch. Slaten is on the 60-day injured list, but no 40-man roster move will need to be made to accommodate him after Abraham Toro‘s recent DFA opened up a 40-man spot.
2. Chapman’s no-hit streak:
Sticking with the Boston bullpen, closer Aroldis Chapman is arguably having the best season of his 16-year MLB career — despite this being his age-37 campaign. He’s striking out 38.7% of his opponents with a sensational 1.04 ERA and 1.83 FIP across 52 innings of work and has picked up 26 saves. His 7.3% walk rate is considerably better than average for a reliever, and that’s the only way opposing hitters have been able to get on base of late. As noted by Tim Healey of the Boston Globe, Chapman has recorded 35 consecutive outs without allowing a hit. It’s an incredible stretch that dates all the way back to July 26. The Red Sox face the Orioles in the final game of a four-game series today. Chapman has already faced Baltimore three times during this no-hit stretch, including twice during this series.
3. Pitchers’ duel in San Francisco:
The Cubs and Giants are wrapping up a three-game set at Oracle Park later today, and it’ll end with an impressive pitching matchup. Right-hander Logan Webb is set to take the mound for the home team in the midst of an excellent season where he’s pitched to a 3.13 ERA with a spectacular 2.60 FIP. His 166 2/3 innings pitched lead the majors, and he’s striking out a strong 26% of batters faced while issuing walks at just a 5.4% clip. Webb’s opponent will be southpaw Shota Imanaga, who has a sterling 3.03 ERA in 19 starts this season. His 4.33 FIP leaves much to be desired, but he’s looked more like himself in August: 2.33 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 28.1% strikeout rate in his past four starts. This afternoon’s game is scheduled to begin at 12:45pm local time.
Poll: The Rangers And The Waiver Wire
The Rangers decided to add at this year’s trade deadline and acquired several arms to beef up the pitching staff. Merrill Kelly was the headliner, but the team also swung deals for Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton in an effort to make up for somewhat lacking production from the club’s offense. That strategy, unfortunately, hasn’t worked. The Rangers’ position in the standings hasn’t changed much as they’ve remained stuck around .500, as has been the case for most of the year.
With the start of September just a few days away, a Rangers club that has been on the cusp between contending and retooling all season is now faced with one final point of decision-making: Should they stay the course and hope for a white hot September that pushes them into the postseason? Or should they throw in the towel and try to sneak back under the luxury tax after the club’s deadline trades pushed their projected payroll slightly over the edge?
They have the opportunity to do the latter if they put Kelly, Coulombe, Maton, and other veterans on expiring deals through waivers. If those players get claimed, they’ll move on to the claiming team and the Rangers will be off the hook for the final month of their salary. Aside from those players who were added at the trade deadline, other expiring deals like those of Chris Martin, Patrick Corbin, Shawn Armstrong and Hoby Milner could make sense for the team to make available. Even Adolis Garcia, who remains under club control via arbitration for the 2026 season, could make sense to make available on waivers given his status as a potential non-tender candidate.
Doing so might give the team additional financial flexibility for the offseason as they look ahead to 2026. Ownership preferred to remain under the tax threshold and reset its penalty levels this past offseason. Their deadline push was made with the team’s postseason odds around 40-50%. Those odds have plummeted, with FanGraphs giving them a 7.2% chance and PECOTA pegging them at 9.8%.
Texas would avoid paying roughly one-sixth of the full season salary for any player who gets claimed off waivers. That means parting ways with Kelly (who is making $7MM this year) would save the club around $1.2MM. Cheaper players like Maton ($2MM) would only shave a little over $300K off the team payroll if claimed.
Of course, saving that money doesn’t do much for the club if it isn’t enough to put them under the luxury tax, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to shed enough money to do so. The team saw with Jon Gray earlier this month that there’s no guarantee a player will be plucked off waivers just because he’s been placed there.
The Rangers’ next most expensive pending free agent is Tyler Mahle, and he’s only just resumed throwing off the mound as he tries to work his way back from a rotator cuff strain. It’s hard to imagine a team placing what’d be a roughly $2.75MM bet that Mahle would not only be able to make it back by season’s end but also return to his prior levels of efficacy. It’s a similar situation with Martin, who has been out since late July with a calf strain and still isn’t on a rehab assignment (though he’d amount to a less costly $916K gamble).
Looking beyond the financial aspect of Texas’s decision, it’s worth considering the club’s position in the standings. The 67-67 Rangers have gone just 10-14 since the trade deadline and have lost 12 of their last 20 games. They’ll need a winning percentage a lot better than .400 in September if they’re going to have any hope of making the postseason. Still, a playoff berth isn’t entirely out of the question. Texas is currently 4.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, which is held by the Mariners. They’re six games back of the Yankees in the second AL Wild Card spot as well as the Astros for the AL West title. They still play Houston six times and also have three-game sets with the Brewers and Mets. Their other 16 games are against teams with losing records.
Those six games against the Astros in September give the Rangers more control over their destiny than most clubs have by this point on the calendar. Perhaps that’s reason enough to stay the course. After all, it would be disappointing for the organization if a rare healthy season from Jacob deGrom went to waste.
On the other hand, the club’s core of players is facing some health challenges. Evan Carter, Marcus Semien and Nathan Eovaldi have all been shelved with what are very likely season-ending injuries in recent days. The loss of Martin in the bullpen has also been a real blow, and it’s unclear if he’ll make it back to the field before the end of the season.
How do MLBTR readers think the Rangers should handle their situation? Should they place a handful of short-term veterans on waivers to try to duck under the tax line and save money for another run in 2026, or would it be best to keep the team together and try to win this year despite dwindling playoff odds and mounting injury concerns? Have your say in the poll below:
Should the Rangers put expiring contracts on waivers?
-
Yes, waive expiring contracts and try to save money for 2026. 71% (1,540)
-
No, keep the team together and try to win this year. 29% (618)
Total votes: 2,158
The Opener: Waiver Activity, Priester, Cherington
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:
1. Waiver activity incoming:
It’s become common in recent years for teams that have fallen out of the playoff race to place veteran players (especially impending free agents) on outright waivers late in the year, offering them up to possible contenders who would like to claim them. That process is typically done before September 1 to allow players claimed off waivers to participate in the postseason with their new club. With the start of September just a few days away, activity has already started to pick up. The Pirates designated veteran lefty Andrew Heaney for assignment yesterday, and Guardians first baseman Carlos Santana is on outright waivers at the moment. There’s a number of other players who could feasibly be offered up on waivers as soon as today if their club decides they’re too far out of the race and/or if they simply want to shed some payroll with an eye toward the offseason. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at a handful of players who could fit this bill last week in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
2. Can Quinn Priester and the Brewers extend their streak?
Milwaukee’s April acquisition of right-hander Quinn Priester from the Red Sox has been pivotal to their 2025 success. The right-hander’s 3.44 ERA and 4.37 FIP are both solid enough figures, but what really jumps off the page is the team’s success when he takes the ball. The Brewers haven’t lost a game where Priester took the mound since May 24. Since then, the twice-traded former top prospect has gone 10-0 in 15 starts. All five of his no-decisions in that span have ended in victory for the team. It’s a remarkable three-month stretch, even though his 3.01 ERA and 4.20 FIP don’t suggest quite that level of dominance. Today, the Brewers will go for a 16th consecutive win with Priester on the mound against Ryne Nelson (3.63 ERA) and the Diamondbacks.
3. Ben Cherington joins the MLBTR Podcast:
The latest episode of the MLBTR Podcast is available today, and it features Pirates GM Ben Cherington as a special guest. In the episode, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald chats with Cherington about some of the challenges of being a small-market GM, the team’s conversations over Paul Skenes with the first pick of the 2023 draft, and the fact that Pittsburgh has not signed any free agents to multi-year deals during Cherington’s time at the helm. Today’s podcast is available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, and it will also be published here on MLBTR later this morning.
Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In
Back in June, MLBTR conducted a pair of polls checking the temperature on the two MVP races, and both polls saw the league’s reigning MVP earn a dominating majority. Aaron Judge pulled in 55% of the vote in the American League poll, while Shohei Ohtani did even better as he commanded 57% of the vote in the National League’s poll. Since then, Ohtani has broken away from the pack in the NL as he’s more fully resumed two-way duties. While other players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Pete Crow-Armstrong have put together excellent seasons of their own in the NL, it’s hard to see that race as anything other than Ohtani’s to lose headed into the final month of the season.
By contrast, the AL MVP race has tightened considerably over the past two months. A big part of that is the fact that Judge hasn’t looked like his usual superhuman self lately. The 33-year-old is still slashing an absurd .323/.439/.667 (193 wRC+), a figure that leads the majors by a substantial margin. However, Judge’s numbers have come down quite a bit in the past two months. Since the day our last AL MVP poll was published, Judge has hit “just” .240/.385/.540 with 12 homers and a 26% strikeout rate in 192 trips to the plate.
That lack of volume is thanks to a flexor strain in Judge’s elbow that sent him to the injured list for a minimum stint a few weeks ago, and his .210/.380/.403 slash line since returning from the injured list only underscores that he’s not playing at full strength. He’s also been relegated to a DH-only role for the month of August and has no timetable for his return to the outfield, though he’s already begun making throws to the infield in pregame workouts.
Of course, Judge looking mortal for a month or so wouldn’t be terribly noteworthy without someone mounting a substantial challenge for his league’s MVP award. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is doing exactly that. Raleigh’s phenomenal season has earned him plenty of attention all year, but he’s only garnered more attention as an MVP candidate in the weeks since Judge’s injury. Interestingly, Raleigh’s offensive numbers have slumped a bit right alongside Judge. While he was slashing .278/.383/.665 at the time of our last AL MVP poll, he’s hit a less robust .204/.311/.498 in 235 plate appearances since then. That includes a .202/.302/.524 slash line in August that isn’t all that far ahead of Judge’s numbers.
Even with the pair both cooling at the plate, Raleigh has still been playing catcher regularly and hasn’t missed time on the IL like Judge has. Raleigh, who secured just 37% of the vote in our last poll, now has eight more games played and 31 more plate appearances than Judge. It’s a small gap, but in a close race, an increased defensive workload and slight lead in terms of overall volume could be key differentiators.
There’s also the factor of history to be considered. Judge managed to surpass Ohtani in the 2022 AL MVP race in part because he set the AL home run record that season. Raleigh would need to hit 13 homers before the end of the season in order to take the title of AL home run king away from Judge, but his prodigious power has already secured him one piece of history that Judge has no hope of taking away: last night, he became the first catcher in MLB history to slug 50 homers in a season. All of that comes together to make Raleigh a legitimate contender for the award alongside Judge, and the fact that the pair are tied at the top of the MLB leaderboard with 7.3 fWAR a piece only further speaks to the viability of both candidates.
Few players in the AL have a realistic shot of challenging these two titans, but one player who could make an interesting case for himself with a strong September would be Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who finished second for the award behind Judge last year. Witt only received token consideration for the award in our last poll, garnering just 2.3% of the vote two months ago. Since then, however, he’s outperformed both Judge and Raleigh with a .313/.370/.524 slash line, a 13-for-14 record on the bases, and defense at shortstop that should make him a lock for his second consecutive Gold Glove award at the position. Witt’s 6.5 fWAR and 130 wRC+ both substantially trail Judge and Raleigh at this point, but if those two continue trending downward while Witt continues trending up, it’s at least possible that we could be in for a three-horse race.
Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately win this year’s AL MVP award? Will Judge hold onto the title for the second year in a row? Will Raleigh’s historic season behind the plate be enough? Could Witt’s second-half surge be enough to overcome both of them? Have your say in the poll below:
Who Will Win The AL MVP Award?
-
Cal Raleigh 71% (4,878)
-
Aaron Judge 23% (1,555)
-
Bobby Witt Jr. 4% (243)
-
Someone Else 2% (153)
Total votes: 6,829
The Opener: Bradish, Kikuchi, MLBTR Chat
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Bradish to return:
Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish is set to make his first MLB start in more than a year today when Baltimore activates him from the 60-day injured list. The club will need to make a corresponding move to create space for Bradish on the 40-man roster before tonight’s game against Lucas Giolito (3.72 ERA in 20 starts) and the Red Sox. Bradish hasn’t impressed in six rehab starts this year in the minor leagues, but he looked electric in eight starts last year when he posted a 2.75 ERA (2.50 FIP) and a 32.5% strikeout rate before requiring Tommy John surgery. If he can log anything close to those numbers down the stretch this year, it would go a long way toward stabilizing the Orioles’ rotation ahead of the 2026 campaign.
2. Kikuchi goes for 1000 strikeouts:
Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi is in his first year with Anaheim, and the two-time All-Star is having a solid season. In 27 starts, he’s pitched to a 3.42 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate in 150 innings of work. He’s set to make his 28th start today against the Rangers and veteran lefty Patrick Corbin. Notably, Kikuchi is just 10 strikeouts shy of becoming only the fourth Japanese-born pitcher to reach 1000 career strikeouts in MLB, joining Yu Darvish, Hideo Nomo, and Kenta Maeda. While punching out ten hitters in a game is a tall order, it’s hardly impossible; Kikuchi has two ten-strikeout games this year, and nine total across his MLB career. The Rangers, meanwhile, have MLB’s tenth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws (23.6%).
3. MLBTR Chat today:
The trade deadline is in the rearview mirror, and the stretch run has officially begun. There’s no shortage of close postseason races, and it’s never too early to look ahead to the offseason and what free agency and the winter trade market might bring. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting a live chat this afternoon at 12:45pm CT to discuss it all. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
Poll: Is Geographic Realignment A Good Idea?
Commissioner Rob Manfred created quite a bit of buzz around the baseball world last week when he made comments on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball last weekend that suggested the league’s desired expansion to 32 teams could be coupled with a dramatic realignment of MLB’s current structure.
“I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign,” Manfred said on the broadcast. “I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you’d be playing out of the east and out of the west.”
The possibility of MLB following in the footsteps of other American sports, like the NBA and NFL, by adopting an eastern/western conference layout as opposed to the current AL vs NL structure is certainly an interesting one. Fans of teams on the east coast and even in the midwest have long bemoaned the late night games associated with west coast road trips, and Manfred’s suggestion that a geographic realignment could lessen the burden of travel on players throughout baseball’s marathon schedule is difficult to argue with. Fans have little reason to care about the desirability of postseason games for broadcasters like ESPN and FOX, but both Manfred’s comments and simple common sense would indicate that possibility will be highly appealing to the league, as well.
Of course, the downsides to a potential geographic realignment are obvious. Baseball is a sport steeped in history, and the loss of the AL/NL structure would necessarily complicate our view of that history. Had the league moved away from the AL/NL structure previously, would Aaron Judge’s chase for 62 home runs in 2022 have been nearly as noteworthy? Without a division between the two leagues, Judge would simply be seventh on the single-season home run leaderboard, rather than the AL record holder. And that’s before considering the possibility of lost rivalries. There’s several ways that MLB could look to realign geographically, but many proposals (including one from Mike Axisa of CBA Sports) would split up historic rivalries like Cubs/Cardinals and Dodgers/Giants. That would be a tough pill to swallow for those teams, who view their longtime rivalries as a key part of their team’s culture and history.
On the other hand, the distinction between baseball’s two leagues has been eroding for years now. The NL has adopted the designated hitter rule, the All Star game no longer determines home field advantage in the World Series, and the schedule has been altered so that every team plays every other team in at least one series per season regardless of league. That amount of inter-league play would guarantee that even rivalries split by this geographic realignment, like the Cubs and Cardinals in Axisa’s proposal, would still play each other on occasion. It’s also worth noting that many interleague rivalries, such as Mets/Yankees and Cubs/White Sox, would benefit from more games on the schedule each year if they were to be pushed into the same conference by geographic realignment.
Realignment on some level is inevitable, as with 32 teams it would be impossible to create six even divisions. Still, that doesn’t mean the AL/NL structure must be lost entirely. Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic was among those to propose a realignment structure that would preserve the status quo for the most part, with only a handful of changes to the current structure as both leagues would move from three divisions of five teams to four divisions of four teams. Under Nesbitt’s plan, the Rockies and Rays would swap to the AL and NL respectively, but all other teams would remain in their current league and no historic rivals would be divided. Of course, maintaining what fans appreciate about the current structure would also mean maintaining many of its frustrations; late night games for fans on the east coast whenever their club takes a road trip out west, and a more much more extreme travel schedule for the players.
How do MLBTR readers feel about the possibility of geographic realignment coming to the majors? Would changing the league’s current structure so drastically detract from the sport’s history for little benefit, or with the leagues already more similar than ever is a major shakeup worth if it improves travel- and timezone-related experience for fans and players alike? Have your say in the poll below:
Should The League Pursue Geographic Realignment Alongside Expansion?
-
No, preserve the AL/NL structure and abandon geographic realignment. 63% (8,923)
-
Yes, abandon the AL/NL structure in favor of East/West conferences. 37% (5,201)
Total votes: 14,124