More On Bryce Harper: Werth, Phillies, Nats Farewell, New Teammates
Former National and Phillie Jayson Werth was unsurprised to hear about his former teammate’s decision to sign in Philadelphia, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Werth knows the trek up I-95 well, as he went the opposite direction in the winter before 2011 when he ended a four-year run in Philly by joining a DC club that had drafted Harper the June prior. Werth’s perspective is unique, obviously, because of his relationship to mentee Bryce Harper, but Werth said he and Harper never discussed free agency or Philadelphia, despite speaking a couple of times over the winter. Werth likes the deal for both sides,“You’re getting a young Bryce Harper for his whole career,” says Werth. “You’re going to get him through tons of prime years. Compared with some of the other deals that are out there, it’s fair in the market for both parties. If you’re Bryce, I think you love the years. If you’re Philadelphia, you probably love the price.” Werth fans will appreciate this update from his post-playing days, which is going about as one might expect: he has his hands full with organic farming, snowboarding, and the launching of his own hemp processing business in Illinois. Let’s check in on a couple other Harper notes…
- Reuben Frank of NBC Sports Philadelphia takes a look at the ten free agents in Philly history who made the biggest splash upon signing. Current 76ers GM Elton Brand makes the list, as does Werth’s former teammate Cliff Lee and MLB’s hit king Pete Rose.
- The Nationals bid Harper a fond farewell from their Twitter account in advance of his introduction in Philly. There does not appear to be quite the level of heartbreak one might expect from fans in Washington, perhaps due to Harper’s early flirtations with the Yankees, or the protracted nature of his departure, or the fact that his national fame predates his Nats career. Of course, the suppression of hurt feelings is a time-tested defense mechanism after a breakup, though the development of Juan Soto and Victor Robles certainly helps soften the blow. Harper leaves the Nationals second to only Ryan Zimmerman in many offensive categories since the club moved to Washington, including home runs, walks, runs, RBIs, extra-base hits and total bases. Add in the organization’s history in Montreal and Harper’s .900 OPS ranks second all-time, bested only by Vladimir Guerrero‘s .978 OPS with the Expos.
- Harper’s future teammates, meanwhile, are excited about the expectations Harper brings to the club, per MLB.com’s Richard Justice. Already many of the comments from Phillies players like Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen center on this team’s potential as a World Series contender. “[Harper] wants to be a Phillie for the rest of his career, pretty much. I get goosebumps thinking about it,” says Jake Arrieta, a guy who knows something about what it takes to win a World Series. “I doubt I’ll play for another 13 years, but I would love to be here for 13 years with him.” It’s safe to say Arrieta will need to kick his pilates routine into high gear if he’s to stick around that long, as he will turn 45 in March of the final year of Harper’s deal.
Phillies To Introduce Bryce Harper Today At 2pm
Newest Phillie Bryce Harper will be available to the media at his introductory press conference today at 2pm EST in Clearwater, Florida. You can watch the press conference live on MLB.com and MLBNetwork.
Along with Harper and agent Scott Boras, GM Matt Klentak and managing partner John Middleton will be present and available to the media from the top of the first base dugout at Spectrum Field, where the press conference is taking place. The Phillies gave word of their 13-year union with Harper via tweet yesterday.
In a separate press release, the Phillies officially announced the signing. The Phillies title Harper “one of the premier players in Major League Baseball” and “a multi-media star” while often referencing Harper’s age alongside his varied career accomplishments.
Harper himself tweeted a photo of the new cover for Sony’s MLB the Show 19, on which he appears in his new Phillies garb. After wearing number 34 in Washington, Harper will switch to number three in Philadelphia.
Check out a roundup of MLBTR’s Notes & Observations from the Harper signing here, or find out what the readers think of the new deal with this MLBTR Poll.
Spring Injuries: Davis, Palka, Mesa, Sandoval
With Spring Training games underway, we’ll use this post to track some of the minor aches and pains as they flare up around the game…
- A mild left calf strain has kept Khris Davis on the shelf for the beginning of Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee. There’s not much cause for concern, but the A’s don’t want to rush Davis until he is back at full strength. He’s listed as day-to-day for now, though the issue has flared up a couple of times since the start of camp. Shutting down all baseball activity is the prudent move for Davis, who is of course a central piece for Oakland’s offense. The 31-year-old DH hit exactly .247 in each of the last four seasons, while his slugging has increased year-over-year, from .505 in 2015 to .524 in 2016 to .528 in 2017 to .549 last year. Davis is a key contributor in just about any scenarios that has the A’s challenging Houston for the AL West crown.
- White Sox right fielder Daniel Palka was pulled from a Spring Training game in the second inning today with left hamstring tightness, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Palka was hitting cleanup for the White Sox, who lost their first two spring contests in a pair of split-squad games on Saturday. Palka became a fan favorite while slugging 27 home runs for the Southsiders as a 26-year-old rookie last year, but he’ll need to develop other parts of his game to survive Chicago’s rebuild. His overall slash line of .240/.294/.484 combined with subpar defense in the outfield corners leaves much to be desired.
- Highly-touted Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa left Sunday’s Spring Training game with a right hamstring strain, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The Marlins 22-year-old outfielder left the game after running out a grounder. He will return to Jupiter to be re-examined, though it would not appear to be a serious injury. He’s listed as day-to-day. Hamstring injuries can linger, of course, and the Marlins will want to be extra cautious with their prized acquisition as they prepare him for his first professional season stateside.
- Pablo Sandoval tweaked a side muscle, though it does not appear to be anything serious. The Giants will hold him back a day or two, but rest appears the only course of action as of now, per Henry Schulman of the SF Chronicle (via Twitter). Sandoval isn’t the player he once was, but he did rebound at least a little bit from his horror show days in Boston. Last season, Sandoval hit .248/.310/.417 across 252 plate appearances, which is production the Giants will take given their minimum salary commitment.
MLBTR Poll: NL Central Hierarchy
When the offseason kicked off, the National League East’s flurry of moves spotlit the four-team race between the Nationals, Braves, Mets and Phillies as a premier event of the 2019 season. Since then, the National League Central has drummed up quite the competition of their own. PECOTA projections for the 2019 season recently surprised many by dropping the Cubs all the way to last place with a projected record of 79-83. The Brewers are pegged to win 88 games, 85 for the Cardinals, 81 for the Reds and 80 for the Pirates, the takeaway here being that there are five competitive clubs with a shot to win the NL Central. Last year the division gave us a three-team race between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers that ended in thrilling fashion. After flirting with the division lead for most of two seasons. the Brew Crew finally caught the Cubs and took the NL Central crown in a one-game playoff. The Brewers are the new kings of the Central, but clocks reset and everyone starts from zero on Opening Day, when the race begins anew.
Not only did the Brewers win the Central in 2018, but they’re on the shortlist for winners of the winter. By adding Yasmani Grandal on a one-year deal, bringing back Mike Moustakas and adding another shifty left-hander to the bullpen in Alex Claudio, the Brewers are going for the kill. They still don’t have a bonafide ace, but they didn’t last year either and the staff is deep. Besides, they have reigning MVP Christian Yelich leading a hungry group that’s gotten better every year under Craig Counsell en route to their NLCS loss to the Dodgers. The young Cubs lost the 2015 NLCS and came back to win it all the next season – the Brewers very well could do the same.
The Cubs still won 95 games, and they are returning close to the same club for 2019. They added around edges with Brad Brach and Xavier Cedeno in the bullpen mix and Daniel Descalso taking over David Ross’ empty seat as spirit of the clubhouse. Otherwise, they kept Cole Hamels around for $20MM, they kept Addison Russell around despite his suspension, but all of a sudden the kingpin of the central has been pronounced dead upon impact. Of course, the frightening amalgamate known as Bryzzo is a proven foundation, and if Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo return to form and stay healthy, the first-place Cubs may yet live again.
The Cardinals machine kept pumping in 2018 en route to 88 wins, and they’ve added perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Matt Carpenter will be hitting leadoff for them again, Yadier Molina remains entrenched behind the plate, and they have a slew of young arms ready to make an impact for the major league club. Question marks surround their most-trusted veteran arms as Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have to prove they’re healthy enough to contribute. Mike Shildt is getting rave reviews for the impact he has had on this ballclub, and in his first full season as skipper, a division title is very much in reach so long as they stick to the Cardinal Way.
In recent seasons, that’s where the conversation has ended – but not this year. The Reds remain a distant fourth for the time being, but for the first time in a long time they made significant upgrades to their starting staff with Alex Wood, Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark. The offense should continue to mash in Great American Ballpark, and there’s some real excitement around this team. Top prospect Nick Senzel may break camp as, suddenly, a centerfielder, but even if he doesn’t, Yasiel Puig is more than happy to stall for time and entertain the crowds in Cincy until Senzel is ready. If nothing else, the Reds are definitely a better team than in 2018, and they’re fun.
The Pirates are the sleeper here, which is a kind way of saying they’re likeliest to land in the cellar. They’ve been mostly forgotten in a winter without a significant free agent acquisition, but they have made changes. Their middle infield plays for the Tigers now, and the new duo of Adam Frazier and Erik Gonzalez don’t have to do a ton to match the production from Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, who combined for only 0.4 rWAR while missing significant chunks of time. GM Neil Huntington’s major additions came last July with Chris Archer and Keone Kela, and this team was better than most of us remember in 2018, finishing with 82 wins. If Archer finds his top form and Jameson Taillon takes a step forward in his development, the Pirates might surprise us.
Maybe the Cubs will surprise everyone and sign Bryce Harper tomorrow, but more than likely these teams are who they are for the beginning of 2019. PECOTA has the Brewers at the top with the other four not far behind. What say you?
Who wins the NL Central in 2019?
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Brewers 32% (5,108)
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Cardinals 30% (4,723)
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Cubs 25% (4,031)
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Reds 9% (1,422)
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Pirates 4% (709)
Total votes: 15,993
Quick Hits: Harrison, Lawrie, LeMahieu
Josh Harrison made the most of his time off by spending it with his family, staying busy and working through his usual offseason workouts, but he was certainly frustrated by his experience in free agency, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. His $2MM deal with the Tigers finally became official yesterday after news broke of the deal on Wednesday. Harrison struggled in his final year in Pittsburgh with just a .250/.293/.363 batting line in 374 plate appearances – though he was nonetheless worth roughly 2.48 fWAR per season over the four seasons prior. Harrison should be comfortable in Detroit, which is very near to his hometown of Cincinnati and already employs his former double play partner Jordy Mercer. The irony of course is that contenders are often on the lookout for a veteran who can play all over the field on a cheap $2MM deal, so a hot start in Detroit means he likely finishes the season elsewhere. Then, of course, he’ll have to do it all again as a free agent next season. Let’s see how free agency went for another couple of second baseman…
- President of baseball ops David Stearns says new Brewer Brett Lawrie will begin the season in the minors as he attempts a comeback. The Brewers have performed a more extensive physical evaluation than usual for Lawrie – who last played in the majors in 2016 for the White Sox. Lawrie, 29, will not yet begin baseball activities, instead spending the next six weeks working with the Brewers medical and strength staff. Given the multitude of lower body injuries Lawrie suffered throughout his career, the Brewers are intent on doing the leg work, so to speak, “to understand what’s going on with Brett’s body from a physical perspective,” though Stearns made sure to point out that Lawrie is not injured at this time. Rather, the goal of these next six weeks is to set up Lawrie, best they can, to get healthy and stay healthy while playing baseball. Watch the video of Stearns addressing Lawrie’s situation on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- We already knew the Rays considered signing DJ LeMahieu in free agency, but the interest was apparently mutual. LeMahieu gave “serious thought” to signing with the Tampa Bay Rays before joining their AL East rival, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times. It’s not exactly a shocking revelation, as the Rays could offer LeMahieu much the same situation he will receive in New York – at least in terms of playing time on a competitive roster. Still, it’s not often likely these two teams go head-to-head in free agency.
MLBTR Originals
Rounding up the latest original content from the MLBTR staff…
- Given what we now know about the free agent market, Mark Polishuk took this opportunity to see how the Charlie Blackmon extension looks in hindsight in this Transaction Retrospective.
- Jeff Todd gave us all a break from the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper hoopla because there are, in fact, other free agents still available. Take a look at his list of 1o Forgotten Free Agents, featuring nostalgic stars like Denard Span and “Big Game” James Shields. GMs around the league must be reading, because four of these unsung heroes have since signed new contracts.
- Jeff also took a moment to see gauge public opinion about Manny Machado’s new deal with the Padres. Only 2.7% of you thought the $300MM deal was a bargain.
- 2019 is a contract season for Chris Sale, so we attempted a valuation of a potential extension, should Boston explore it with their lefty hurler.
- And of course, ICYMI, be sure to read the transcripts from this week’s chats with Steve, Tim, Jeff and Mark who are typically on hand to chat with MLBTR readers every Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday.
Nationals Koda Glover Leaves Game With Elbow Tightness
Koda Glover’s health struggles continued in his first appearance of the spring today. He left the game with elbow tightness and will have to be re-evaluated on Monday, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. As of right now, there is no indication as to the severity of Glover’s discomfort.
Glover managed only 22 pitches to four batters before being replaced by Austen Williams. It’s another unfortunate setback for Glover, who missed most of the last two seasons with injuries to his back, hip and shoulder. Coming into the 2017 season he was a significant piece of the Nats’ bullpen puzzle and the potential closer of the future. A hip impingement sent him to the injured list for two weeks at the end of April of that year, but when he returned, he recorded five saves over a spotless nine appearances in May. He totaled 8 saves on the year before a back injury put him on back on the shelf for the rest of the season.
Remember, Glover’s injuries paired with Blake Treinen‘s ineffectiveness led the club to trade for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Doolittle has become a vocal leader in the clubhouse and community while locking down the ninth inning – when healthy. Of course, that deal cost the Nationals Jesus Luzardo, a Baseball America top-10 prospect as of today, and Treinen would figure things out in a major way while with Oakland.
None of which, obviously, falls on Glover, though one can only imagine it would be reassuring for the Nationals were he and Doolittle to stay healthy and productive enough to secure the high-leverage portions of baseball games in 2019. For that to happen, Glover will first need to get healthy. He felt good coming into the game, and this spring was the strongest he’d felt in awhile, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Unfortunately, any feel good comeback story is again on hold for the Nats and Glover, who turns 26 in April.
For his career, Glover has appeared in parts of three seasons, totaling 63 appearances out of the pen, a 4.00 FIP and 2.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For the Nationals, they should have enough even if Glover is out long-term, with Trevor Rosenthal, Kyle Barraclough, Justin Miller, Wander Suero from the right side, as well as starters Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Joe Ross, and Kyle McGowin who could be move to the bullpen if they aren’t needed in the rotation.
Quick Hits: Harper, Phillies, Giants, Barreto, A’s
Rule changes are coming to major league baseball and – if these changes occur – they could favor a long-term union between the Phillies and Bryce Harper, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Adding the designated hitter to the National League, though still very much in question, would help preserve Harper’s body long-term and keep his bat in the lineup even if his glovework doesn’t rebound after a difficult 2018. Salisbury also mentions the elimination of the shift and the proposed three-batter minimum for pitchers as rule changes that could benefit Harper and the Phillies in the long-term. Of course, these changes would be implemented league-wide, so if in fact they would benefit Harper, they’d benefit him wherever he lands. It’s particularly curious to list the potential adoption of the designated hitter as a benefit to a Harper-Phillies marriage, as there are fifteen teams not based in Philadelphia who could claim that benefit today (though he’s not wrong). Speculation of the future can begin in earnest as soon as Harper puts pen to paper, which some think will happen by tomorrow latest, while Buster Olney of ESPN suggests a resolution could come by Tuesday. As we await the big decision, let’s see what else is happening around the league…
- The answer in San Francisco continues to be “not much” as fans await a splashy move from new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi, per Al Saracevic of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s not all doom-and-gloom for Giants fans, some of whom are holding out hope for a Harper signing. Harper continues to make sense for the Giants, who lack established bats in the outfield, but signing him would be a quick pivot for Zaidi, who has preached patience in the early going. Of course, Harper is a unique case. If he ends up with the Giants, fans will certainly have something to be excited about, and if he doesn’t, they can at least look forward to reaping the long-term benefits of Zaidi’s prudence.
- Franklin Barreto began a new endeavor in his career with five innings in left field yesterday. The starting second base job belongs to Jurickson Profar for now, and it appears as if the bench role will go to Chad Pinder, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee. Barreto was the A’s top prospect per Baseball America in both 2016 and 2017, but after struggling through two short stints in the majors the last two seasons, Barreto’s future in Oakland is muddled. Jed Lowrie’s free agency seemed an opportunity for Barreto to stake his claim to the keystone, but the Profar acquisition thrust Barreto back into limbo. He’ll be 23 this season, slated to begin the year R Triple A where’s he has played most of the last three seasons. Barreto has only one option year remaining, making 2019 a make-or-break year. Pinder, meanwhile, has three option years remaining, but established his value to the big league club last season by hitting .258/.332/.436 while appearing at every position except pitcher and catcher.
NL West Notes: Dodgers, Dbacks, Tomas, Giants, Ferguson
Dodgers Chairman Mark Walter asserts no directive came from ownership to keep the Dodgers’ payroll under the luxury tax, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The decision-making is trusted entirely to team president Stan Kasten and president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman, who kept the Dodgers under the tax line last season and have thus far done the same this winter. Kasten defended the Dodgers’ spending last month at their annual FanFest, reminding listeners that the Dodgers are among the biggest spenders in the league, while touting the incentives available for teams who stay under the tax. In the aggregate, the Dodgers seem united in their organizational philosophy, taking what’s become the popular position league-wide, that while spending beyond the tax line is, in theory, worthwhile under certain circumstances, the prudent path is to remain under the tax line whenever possible. The qualifier the Dodgers can add here, is that it’s prudent for them because they continue to win their division. With 6 straight division titles and a seventh in the offing (or so say projections), spending beyond the tax line could be viewed as a form of gluttony. To their point, the Dodgers have made strides to improve their club with the additions of A.J. Pollock, Joe Kelly and Russell Martin. Still, their abstention from the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper sweepstakes continues to needle some people outside the organization, prompting these kinds of rebuttals from Dodger leadership. Now, let’s check in on some player news from the NL West…
- Yasmany Tomas had a disappointing 2018 that saw his removal from the Diamondbacks 40-man roster as he languished the entire season at Triple A, his first season without a major league appearance since 2015 when he made the trip stateside. It may appear particularly grim from the outside, but Tomas views last season as one of his more productive years, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Regardless of how you view Tomas’ 2018 – a year in which he hit just .262/.280/.465 in Triple A – Tomas has a legitimate opportunity to make the Arizona roster. If he can provide enough defense at first and/or in the outfield corners, he (theoretically) fits nicely as a right-handed option to Jake Lamb at first. His power output as never been at issue, as Tomas has slugged wherever he’s been, but it’s every other aspect of the game that will make-or-break the 28-year-old’s shot at the big leagues.
- Giants Rule 5 draft selection Drew Ferguson is more analytically-focused than your typical outfield prospect, writes the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman. To get a better gauge on flyball trajectories, Ferguson studies wind speed, park dimensions and surface temperatures to prepare. He is studious, no doubt, but sticking with the Giants all season long is the challenge he faces. The 26-year-old will need to stay on the active roster or the injured list or else be returned to the Astros, who drafted him in the 19th round in 2015. Ferguson made it as far as Triple A in each of the last two seasons for Houston, where in 2018 he hit .305/.436/.429. After impressing with an overall batting line of .297/.393/.455. across four minor league seasons, Ferguson should get a longer leash in San Francisco, who hopes to deploy him as a right-handed complement for Stevan Duggar. Ferguson faces competition from a broad if not very deep group that includes Cameron Maybin, Mac Williamson, Gerardo Parra, Yangervis Solarte, Chris Shaw, Austin Slater, Craig Gentry, Mike Gerber and John Andreoli. At present, the Giants not only have an open competition for backup roles, but the starting jobs in both corners are up for grabs as well, providing Ferguson more than a fair shake to make the team.
Quick Hits: Reds, Gray, Rangers, Red Sox, Porcello
The Reds rotation upgrades are the story of their winter, though impending free agency for Alex Wood and Tanner Roark means there’s not much time for this unit to gel. Their third big addition, Sonny Gray, is the most significant of the three if only because he immediately signed a three year, $30.5MM extension. Unfortunately, Reds fans will have to wait for Gray’s debut, as he was scratched from his start today with right elbow stiffness, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay. Gray came to camp sore a couple days after throwing a bullpen session, but the hope is a little extra rest will get Gray right again. The team did not perform an MRI, and there’s no reason to suspect anything serious at this time. Time to check in on another couple of stories from around the league…
- Each January, the Rangers invite a select group of top pitching prospects for a week-long mini-camp with the major league staff in advance of Spring Training, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. This season, however, they sent an even smaller group of about ten pitchers to a “secret secondary-pitch intensive.” The camp takes place at Driveline Baseball, an increasingly ballyhooed research and development consultant founded by Kyle Boddy. Trevor Bauer is one noted client, as is a couple of potential feel-good stories of 2019, Kyle Zimmer of the Royals and the Cubs 37-year-old rookie Luke Hagerty. Among the Rangers sent to Driveline were bullpen hopefuls like C.D. Pelham, Brett Martin, Michael Matuella, Jason Bahr, Nick Snyder and Brady Feigl. The exact purpose of the camp remains unclear, and Jon Daniels and the Rangers have been none too keen to speak on the subject. Still, the Driveline story is one to track throughout the year, as we may be hearing more from the innovative research group.
- Rick Porcello is open to furthering his time with the Red Sox, but they have yet to approach him about an extension, per Rob Bradford of WEEI Sports Radio Network. Porcello excelled in 2016 when he was able to limit walks and home runs en route to winning 22 games and the AL Cy Young, despite a FIP of only 3.40. Now in the final year of the four year, $82.5MM deal signed before that season, Porcello’s market value is tricky to pinpoint. The Cy Young raises his profile, though he remains closer to a mid-rotation workhorse than a top-of-the-rotation ace. He has a career 4.02 FIP, but he’s also on a remarkable run of durability that makes him an outlier in this era – he has started between 27 and 33 games each season for ten years running. Porcello, 30, is likely not as high on the Red Sox priority list as Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts.