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Big Hype Prospects: Brennan, Cavalli, Malloy, O’Hoppe, Capel

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, I play it fast and loose with “big hype” in order to focus on some Spring Training battles.

Five BHPs In The News

Will Brennan, 25, OF, CLE (MLB)
(AAA) 433 PA, 9 HR, 15 SB, .316/.367/.471

A favorite of mine and my main contact with Baseball America, Brennan is in a roster battle with Oscar Gonzalez and Myles Straw this spring. Between average discipline and a strong feel for contact, he’s the Guardians latest candidate to walk more than he strikes out. The left-handed hitter looks like a future doubles machine even if his home run output is a tad underwhelming. His defense is solid in the corners and passable in center. With Straw on the roster and a fly ball-oriented pitching staff, he’s not ideal for center field. The lack of home run potential is an odd look in an outfield corner, yet his feel for hard contact implies a three- or four-win player in a similar mold to teammate Steven Kwan. After Gonzalez shatter expectations last season, it will be interesting to see how the Guardians distribute playing time.

Cade Cavalli, 24, SP, WSH (MLB)
(AAA) 97 IP, 9.65 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 3.71 ERA

Cavalli made his debut last fall and struggled in his only appearance. He flashed his impressive repertoire of four above average offerings, but his below average command was also on display. This is a profile that tends to experience success in the Majors after a sometimes lengthy adjustment period. The Nationals will be looking to build him up after throwing only 101.1 total innings last season. He’s expected to break camp with the club. Don’t be surprised if they take opportunities to give him extra rest or restrict his innings per start. The plan should look similar to the usage of Josiah Gray last season. He threw 148.2 innings across 28 starts. As a stuff-over-command starter, he has some of the same markers as Dylan Cease.

Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23, 3B, DET (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 591 PA, 17 HR, 5 SB, .289/.408/.454

After lighting up three levels in 2022, the Braves included Malloy in the Joe Jimenez trade. Atlanta’s recent track record with prospect trades is rather incredible. For the most part, they’ve kept the winners and dealt away the laggards. Malloy’s inclusion in a trade for a reliever with a checkered past could be viewed as a negative mark. I polled two scouting contacts and received different takes. One doesn’t believe Malloy impacts the ball enough to be a high-probability regular. The other is more optimistic about the plate discipline carrying the profile. Malloy walked in 16.4 percent of plate appearances last season while keeping his swinging strike rate below 10 percent. He has an extreme pulled contact approach with a roughly balanced 20/40/40 blend of liners/grounders/flies. Malloy resembles a Max Muncy starter kit – just keep in mind Muncy finally broke out in his age 27 season. There’s no guarantee Malloy finds the barreled and hard contact rates that drive Muncy’s success. On the other hand, he has a decent shot to play his way onto the roster later this season.

Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544

Acquired in the Brandon Marsh trade, O’Hoppe is competing with Max Stassi and out-of-options Matt Thaiss for the Angels catching job. Aside from a brief 16 plate appearance debut, O’Hoppe spent all of last season in Double-A. This spring, he has neither thrived nor embarrassed himself to this point. His 2022 breakout seemed predicated on a surge of plate discipline. That he further improved upon joining the Angels affiliate, including a .306/.473/.673 line in 131 plate appearances, is a positive sign. Assuming the club avoids injury, it could be tempting to give O’Hoppe further seasoning in Triple-A. There seemingly isn’t room for all three of Stassi, Thaiss, and O’Hoppe on the roster. While he’s their catcher of the future, clinging to Thaiss in the short-term makes some sense.

Conner Capel, 25, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 409 PA, 20 HR, 21 SB, .264/.364/.422

A favorite of mine to earn an extended look at some point this season, Capel has already outlasted JJ Bleday this spring. Capel is performing well following a successful 2022 split between St. Louis and Oakland. There’s every chance Capel is the best outfielder in camp at this moment. He’s been inconsistent throughout his minor league assent, at times showing discipline or over-aggression, a feel for contact or a hefty whiff rate, and a power- or speed-based profile. Given his long and winding journey, it’s hard to pin down exactly who he’ll become in the future. That he’s experimented with so many modes of play suggests he’s highly adaptable, a trait which does well to predict Major League success. While other franchises would view Capel as a capable backup, the Athletics should have starting opportunities available throughout the season.

Three More

Ji-Hwan Bae, PIT (23): In the mix for the Pirates starting second base job, Bae is off to a slow start this spring. So too is his competition. When Bae is on, he shows an above average eye with feel for contact. While he doesn’t produce much power, he should reach base enough to disrupt pitchers with his speed.

Jo Adell, LAA (23): Adell is expected to begin the season in Triple-A in deference to the Angels outfield veterans. That will trigger his final minor league option. It’s his last chance for regular playing time before playing waiver roulette. Adell can still put a charge in the ball, but it does seem like he would benefit from joining a non-contender willing to set him loose without restriction. His spring stats to date don’t suggest he’ll upset Taylor Ward or Hunter Renfroe for playing time.

Yainer Diaz, HOU (24): An aggressive free-swinger with thump, Diaz draws half-hearted comps to Salvador Perez. In the minors, he’s shown a capacity for making high-quality contact despite an expansive approach. He appears to be susceptible to breaking balls. Diaz is making a bid to join the Astros as their backup catcher – one who could offer more thump than defense-first Martin Maldonado.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

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The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Mauricio, Vientos, Song, Brown

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This week on Big Hype Prospects… baseball is happening, and we are eagerly awaiting the results.

Five BHPs In The News

Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (—)
DNP

Jones is on pace to make his minor league debut this spring. The second overall pick of the 2022 draft, Jones missed the season with a shoulder injury sustained during batting practice. He’s widely considered a Top 25 prospect despite never appearing in a professional game. Like his father Andruw, Jones profiles as a speedy, defensively able center fielder who might grow into serious power within a few years. Andruw Jones debuted as a 19-year-old in 1996 and posted a 31-homer, 27-steal campaign as a 21-year-old in 1998. The younger Jones is unlikely to reach the Majors this year, especially in a system with such an impressive collection of young outfielders. However, he has the traits to explode through the lower levels this season.

Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AA)
541 PA, 26 HR, 20 SB, .259/.296/.472

Mauricio profiles as a volatile prospect, one whose days in the Mets system might be coming to an end. His defensive ability at shortstop is fringy, but it’s the only position at which he has extensive experience. The Mets have opted to keep him at shortstop where he’s blocked long-term by Francisco Lindor. There’s no clearer signal of their intent to trade him (in this writer’s opinion).

As a hitter, Mauricio lacks discipline and breaking ball recognition. Despite a 26/20 campaign, there’s reason to believe his apparent power and speed will play down. For one, he’s not actually fast. He was caught 11 times last season and is 39-for-66 (59%) for his career. Although his max exit velocity would rank among the Top 50 hitters, his unrestrained approach hints at a high bust rate. Mauricio is still a valuable prospect, but he’s not the sort of blue-chip asset teams want for their best trade assets.

Mark Vientos, 23, 1B/3B/DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Vientos made modest strides with his plate discipline in the last year. He profiles as a bat-first prospect who is ultimately destined for first base or designated hitter duties. It’s not yet clear if he has enough bat to sustain regular work at those positions. Right-handed hitting first basemen tend to have a high bar to clear. Often, they’ll eventually matriculate, but it can sometimes require a few stops along the way. The Mets’ own Darin Ruf followed this path. C.J. Cron serves as a happier example of this profile. He finally found lasting success with the Rays in his age 28 season after four years of treading water in Los Angeles. Due to his defensive limitations, Vientos has a narrow window to stake any claim to third base reps ahead of Eduardo Escobar or Brett Baty. Pete Alonso is only signed through 2024, and the designated hitter mix led by Daniel Vogelbach isn’t exactly the Mets’ strong suit.

Noah Song, 25, SP, PHI (—)
DNP

They don’t come more mysterious than Song. Once a touted draft prospect who fell due to a military commitment, the Phillies selected Song from the Red Sox in the latest Rule 5 draft. It’s the second time Dave Dombrowski has selected him in a draft. Now cleared for baseball duty, the Phillies will have the challenging task of deciding if he can serve as their eighth reliever. When we last saw him in 2019, Song featured a plus fastball, slider, and curve along with a developing changeup. We don’t know how those pitches grade out today, and I’ve yet to observe him this spring. Assuming the fastball and at least one breaking ball are viable, it’s possible they could hide Song in the bullpen, send him to the minors to stretch out in 2024, then reassess matters from there.

The first step in that chain, carrying Song on the active roster, is a doozy. The Phillies are coming off an improbable NL Championship in which they barely scraped their way into the postseason. All signs point to another uphill battle in 2023. Every roster spot counts. Using one on Song rather than a “proven” option like Bailey Falter could be the difference.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

With Lance McCullers set to miss the start of the season, Brown is expected to make the Astros rotation. We can intuit they’ll carefully manage his workload. In fact, they were already doing so last season. At Triple-A, he made 14 starts with nine relief appearances. The Astros juggled the workloads of Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy in much the same way last season, albeit less obviously. Brown more than held his own in 20.1 Major League innings. He averaged nearly 97-mph with his heater while recording 9.74 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, a 68 percent ground ball rate, and a 0.89 ERA. In the minors, he typically posted just north of a 50 percent ground ball rate. He’s a stuff-over-command starter who might fit best in short bursts.

Three More

Forrest Whitley, HOU (25): One of the options for the fifth starter slot, Whitley managed 40 innings in affiliated ball last season for the first time since 2019. He’s yet to broach 100 innings in a season, making a reliever role likelier if only for workload management purposes. Whitley struggled in his return to Triple-A. He once possessed five above average offerings and an ace-like ceiling.

Ethan Small, MIL (26): Small is a large left-handed changeup specialist with shaky command. Used as a starter throughout his four-season minor league career, the Brewers have now committed to preparing him as a reliever. This is his best opportunity to contribute in the short term. Even with Aaron Ashby sidelined, the Brewers have six quality starting pitchers on the big league staff.

Drew Gilbert, HOU (22): A 2022 first-rounder, the left-handed Gilbert dislocated his right elbow in a wall collision. He’s expected to be full health to start the season. A capable center fielder with discipline, contact skills, and non-trivial pop, Gilbert’s performance this season could cement a spot on Top 100 prospect lists. This is also a profile that often falls into a fifth-outfielder bucket. Consistent hard contact could serve as a forward indicator of his career trajectory.

Big Hype Prospects: Volpe, Wesneski, O’Hoppe, Harrison, Brujan

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we continue our offseason tradition of focusing on players tangentially linked to news and rumors.

Five BHPs In The News

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

True to their word, the Yankees never got around to solving their left field opening with an external addition. Nor did they upgrade Josh Donaldson after the veteran turned in his worst-hitting performance since 2012. The club has opted to go with internal depth like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Also factoring into the calculus is the imminent arrival of Volpe.

The 21-year-old slugger has only 99 plate appearances of experience at Triple-A and posted a modest 91 wRC+ at the level. While minor league data isn’t comprehensive, there’s evidence Volpe was too patient with pitches inside the strike zone. A repeat at the level makes sense given the personnel already on hand in the Majors. It would require an incredible Spring Training for Volpe to crack the Opening Day lineup. In the interim, with Gleyber Torres participating in the World Baseball Classic, Volpe should have more opportunities for middle infield game reps.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

With Kyle Hendricks expected to begin the season on the injured list, the Cubs have a battle for the fifth rotation slot. The most intriguing entrant is Wesneski, a right-hander who showed a knack for avoiding hard contact in a brief 33-inning trial last season. Wesneski features a five-pitch repertoire including three distinct fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. While he doesn’t project to run rampant strikeout totals in the Majors, Wesneski is stingy about allowing hits and walks. It’s a Jameson Taillon-like profile, and it’s probably no accident the Cubs acquired both players in the last calendar year.

Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544

Acquired at the previous trade deadline for formerly hyped prospect Brandon Marsh, O’Hoppe will compete with Max Stassi for a starting role on the thirsty Angels. Although the right-handed hitter has yet to play in Triple-A, the Angels gave him a vote of confidence in the form of 16 Major League plate appearances last fall. O’Hoppe took advantage of hitter-friendly conditions to torch Double-A pitching. His 2022 breakout included improved plate discipline without sacrificing aggression against pitches in the heart of the zone. This is a relatively rare adjustment. Should he seize the Opening Day job, keep an eye on his plate discipline metrics. If he retains his selective aggression, O’Hoppe could emerge as one of the top catchers in the league.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
(AA) 84 IP, 13.61 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 3.11 ERA

Including High-A, Harrison threw a total of 113 innings. He should approach a full complement of 30 starts this season – perhaps with a mix of longer and shorter outings to manage his workload. The Giants put together a deep pool of Major League starters. In addition to the presumed starting five of Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Alex Wood, Jakob Junis and Anthony Desclafani await in the bullpen.

While Harrison finds himself behind a number of very qualified starters, the pool of viable minor leaguer replacements is relatively thin. This is also a group of veterans who (mostly) have familiarity with major injuries. This apparent depth could evaporate at a moment’s notice, offering a temporary opportunity for Harrison to audition. As of last look, command is Harrison’s greatest weakness. Most scouts think he’ll develop in this regard. If not, his stuff is sufficient to support him in short-burst starter or elite fireman roles.

Vidal Brujan, 25, 2B/OF, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 162 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB, .163/.228/.259

Although technically no longer a prospect, Brujan still fits a looser definition of an “unestablished, young player.” He’s also received plenty of hype over the years. Brujan doesn’t fit cleanly on this iteration of the Rays roster, leading MLBTR staffer Anthony Franco to consider him a trade candidate. The switch-hitter has struggled to make impactful contact at the top level, though he has posted an above-average batting line at every minor league level – aside from nine plate appearances at Low-A in 2016. At one point, prospect watchers secretly hoped Brujan would flip a power switch like similarly-built infielder Jose Ramirez. Now it’s looking likelier Brujan settles as a defense-first regular with a contact-forward hitting approach.

Three More

Thad Ward, WSH (26): Although I’ve yet to hear of the Nationals planning to use Ward as a starter this season, the absence of Stephen Strasburg creates a tempting opportunity. Ward has served as a starter throughout his minor league career and profiles as a potential rotation regular. The Nationals are in a state of internal evaluation and have little reason to withhold starts from their Rule 5 pick.

James Outman, LAD (25): After spending much of the offseason with a clear path to a starting role, Outman now finds himself locked behind David Peralta. As a fellow left-handed hitter, Outman faces an uphill battle for regular reps.

DL Hall, BAL (24): Hall is currently behind schedule due to lower back discomfort. The oft-injured southpaw already looked questionable to make the Opening Day rotation. This setback only increases the risk of a minor league assignment. While Hall undoubtedly could play as a Major League reliever, the club is still assessing his potential as a starter.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Vargas, Hall, Frelick, Wiemer

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Rejoice! The offseason is officially behind us. Pitchers and catchers who are involved in the World Baseball Classic report today. The rest report on either 2/15 or 2/16. Fresh prospect news should start to trickle in soon. The WBC will give us additional opportunities to see prospects in competitive action. Not only do some top prospects participate in the contest, the outflow of players to international games means there are more opportunities for game reps in big league camps.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B/OF, STL (AA)
(AA) 536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

One of the most dynamic prospects in the league with a penchant for barreling the ball, Walker is in the process of converting to outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. As we covered recently, the Cardinals don’t exactly have an opening in the outfield either. Walker also doesn’t have a spot on the 40-man roster yet, further complicating his path to the Majors. While fans are undoubtedly clamoring to see him early this season, a successful stint at Triple-A will almost certainly be required to force the issue.

If there’s any caveat about Walker, and this is nitpicking, it’s an elevated ground ball rate. Since he has special power, Walker could very well tap into an elite HR/FB rate like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton to overcome a few extra bouncers. He’s expected to post above average BABIPs on account of the angle and quality of his contact.

Miguel Vargas, 23, 2B/3B, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Another third baseman by trade set to shift positions, the Dodgers have announced Vargas will man the keystone. The less fleet-footed Max Muncy will play third base. This is a conversion that usually works out for reasonably athletic young players like Vargas. The athletic requirements for the two positions are similar. Third basemen generally need more arm strength. Second basemen should have sharper footwork. Vargas projects as a roughly league average third baseman, and that likely holds true at second base too.

An evaluator I consulted doesn’t believe Vargas is a future star, though he does appear to be a high-probability core performer. While they’re not particularly comparable, these are the same sorts of comments I received about Jake Cronenworth prior to his debut in San Diego. There are some feel-based aspects to Vargas’ game that could allow him to exceed his physical limitations.

DL Hall, 24, SP, BAL (MLB)
(AAA) 76.2 IP, 14.67 K/9, 5.75 BB/9, 4.70 ERA

Hall posted the largest workload of his professional career last season. He tossed 98 innings in total across four levels including a brief debut in the Orioles bullpen. He’ll be offered an opportunity to compete for one of two open rotation slots in Baltimore. Hall’s stuff is filthy, and he works deep counts seeking strikeouts. He’s also prone to walks. His errant command shouldn’t be viewed as a permanent characteristic just yet. Like many pitching prospects, Hall has struggled with injuries throughout his ascent. Further setbacks could force a bullpen role – as we’ve seen happen with A.J. Puk. Conversely, a healthy stint might be the ticket for unlocking just enough command to carry his superb stuff as a short-burst starter. Notably, Hall’s stuff did not play up out of the bullpen.

Sal Frelick, 22, OF, MIL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 562 PA, 11 HR, 24 SB, .331/.403/.480

The Brewers could graduate a fresh outfield of the future this season. Roster realities, an uphill battle in the NL Central, and pricey left fielder Christian Yelich will complicate the juggling act ahead for General Manager Matt Arnold. None of Frelick, Joey Wiemer, or Jackson Chourio are yet on the 40-man roster.

Frelick is a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average discipline, speed, and feel for quality contact. His power rates as below average, though it remains possible he’ll make adjustments to unlock decent pop. Presently, there are doubts Frelick will stick in center field. He’s sufficiently athletic but has iffy instincts. Some players overcome this shortcoming. Others do not. His path forward as a left fielder is more fraught – both due to the presence of Yelich and his lack of impactful power.

Joey Wiemer, 24, OF, MIL (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 548 PA, 21 HR, 31 SB, .256/.336/.465

Wiemer stands out on a field. Not only is he a large man, he can fly around the diamond. The profile looks like a big-man version of Tyler O’Neill. He’s expected to be the sort of volatile player who will at times carry a team and at others slog through deep slumps. Presently, his game power is inconsistent. He appeared to make an adjustment late last season to a more balanced contact profile. That could also be a small sample artifact. Things to keep an eye upon in Triple-A and when he debuts include his line drive rate, pulled contact, and infield fly rate.

Three More

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): It’s not yet confirmed if Chourio received an invitation to big league Spring Training. On the shortlist for number one prospect in baseball, I don’t believe I’ve seen this level of hype since the days of Mike Trout. He’s still learning center field where he’s physically capable but inexperienced. His bat is expected to play at any position. Most encouragingly, he made a number of key in-season adjustments last year – a trait which bodes well for his further development.

JJ Bleday, OAK (25): Bleday, whose least appealing attributes were covered last week, was recently acquired by the Athletics. Oakland is less inclined to feign competitiveness than Miami, meaning Bleday should have a fair chance for regular reps. However, the A’s have quite a few outfielders at present including Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, Seth Brown, Esteury Ruiz, Cristian Pache, and Conner Capel among others. Bleday might need to await the nearly inevitable trades of Laureano and Brown.

Ezequiel Tovar, COL (21): Tovar recently spoke to the media about his pursuit of an Opening Day role with the Rockies. Per his comments, he might parlay a strong Spring Training into an active roster spot. Given his youthful age, Colorado could be tempted to seize any excuse to manipulate his service time. A late April debut would secure control over his age 27 season. Tovar is not yet a finished product as a hitter, though his defense is considered excellent.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, Bleday, Alvarez, Outman, Steer

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Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, at which point we’ll have more to discuss in virtually every facet of the sport. Until then, let’s review more prospects tangentially connected to the news. Today’s episode coincidentally includes a number of left-handed hitters with holes in their swing.

Five BHPs In The News

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 626 PA, 19 HR, 18 SB, .278/.406/.469

In a recent radio spot, Orioles general manager Mike Elias indicated a belief Cowser will debut later this season. A recent review of the Baltimore farm system published by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen offers modest cause for concern. There are now questions about Cowser’s ability to perform against low-in-the-zone breaking balls and inside fastballs. Those are two very large holes for a big league hitter, indicating Cowser might require a carefully managed role once he is promoted. The lower-half stiffness noted by Longenhagen is a new issue and might relate to the workload Cowser shouldered last season. In order to improve and adjust, Cowser could require a long stint in Triple-A.

JJ Bleday, 25, OF, MIA (MLB)
(MLB) 238 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .167/.277/.309

The left-handed hitting slugger has two massive issues to overcome – a weakness against up-and-away fastballs and a pulled, fly-ball-oriented approach lacking in high-quality exit velocities. Both issues were on full display in Bleday’s first season, and he has used up his rookie eligibility. Bleday is currently expected to compete with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz for playing time in left field. Unless he improves upon both shortcomings, the former fourth-overall pick will be limited to heavily scripted usage against right-handed sinkerballers. Achieving such an adjustment will likely require a new swing and a return to Triple-A to digest the changes.

Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 411 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511

A burly backstop who frequently draws hitting comps to Salvador Perez, Alvarez will need to play his way onto an Opening Day roster that already includes catchers Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. While neither player is expected to block Alvarez, he also has a second pathway onto the roster – designated hitter. As we learned yesterday, the Mets are carrying a veteran tandem of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham in part to leave a door open for Alvarez and Brett Baty (covered last week) to get at-bats as part of the revolving door at DH.

As a hitter, Alvarez appears primed for the Show. There is near-term concern about his rate of contact and occasional lapses into over-selectivity. Even so, these are small issues to polish rather than fatal flaws.

James Outman, 25, OF, LAD (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 559 PA, 31 HR, 13 SB, .294/.393/.586

Although the Dodgers have made peace with crossing the first luxury tax threshold, they’ve done little to fortify their left field mix. Outman will compete with the likes of Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward for a regular role this spring. Outman’s approach could serve as a roadmap for Bleday. The left-handed hitting Outman makes frequently pulled, fly ball contact, but he isn’t nearly as extreme as the similarly built Marlins outfielder. Outman also consistently delivers line drives which allows him to post above-average BABIPs. Toss in above-average plate discipline, and he has a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power despite expectations of a 30 percent strikeout rate.

Spencer Steer, 25, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 427 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515

Acquired as part of the return in the Tyler Mahle trade, Steer looks the part of a future second-division starter or frequently-used utility man. The Reds are in a year of transition with Steer eyeing a role as the regular third baseman. Long-term, he’ll need to contend with the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain – whichever among those doesn’t take over at shortstop. Steer is considered a well-rounded hitter with a feel for contact, above-average plate discipline, and an ability to pop mistakes. The cozy confines of Great American Ballpark should help his power production. One question he’ll need to answer relates to his consistency of contact quality. In a 108-plate appearance trial last season, Steer posted an 84.7-mph average and 104.4-mph max exit velocity, which were well below Major League average.

Three More

George Valera, CLE (22): After managing a league-average batting line at Triple-A last season, Valera is on pace to debut at some point in 2023. He won’t be making the Opening Day roster due to a recent hamate injury. Such injuries are hard to predict, as the recovery is speedy in some cases, but some players are left with lesser bat control for weeks or months after returning. Occasionally, as with Alex Kirilloff, a secondary issue can linger indefinitely.

Kyle Stowers, BAL (25): Currently in the outfield and designated hitter mix for Baltimore, Stowers has a brief window to cement a role as a righty-masher before a flood of high-ceiling prospects joins the roster. Stowers is patient, strikeout-prone, and powerful, rendering him a Three True Outcomes option. Such hitters are volatile as they’re heavily reliant on hitting home runs at just the right time.

Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (23): General manager Mike Elias reiterated his belief that Rodriguez will make the Opening Day rotation. There’s still the messy part of actually navigating Spring Training, especially since Rodriguez’s stuff had declined at last look, though he was returning from a lat injury at the time. Even the September version of Rodriguez looked like a future rotation mainstay.

Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Colas, Waters, Grissom, Hernaiz

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Late January is a sluggish period in the baseball transactions calendar. As has occurred in other slow weeks this offseason, we’ll be generous with our definitions of “Big Hype” and “Prospects” in order to cover interesting players recently in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, Mets (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 420 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .315/.410/.533

Baty’s future role with the Mets has shifted a few times this offseason. When it appeared the club was set to sign Carlos Correa, Baty shifted from a potential cost-controlled building block to trade bait. The division-rival Marlins even reportedly explored a trade for Baty involving either Jesus Luzardo or Edward Cabrera. With Correa crossed off the acquisition list, Baty is back in the picture for third base reps. From a roster management perspective, an Opening Day role will likely require either a monstrous Spring Training or an injury to incumbent third baseman Eduardo Escobar. While Baty had an excellent season in the minors, he only recorded 26 plate appearances in Triple-A. He then skipped to the Majors where his issues with ground-ball contact were on display in 42 plate appearances. Encouragingly, he posted above-average exit velocities. He profiles as a high-floor future Major League regular, though he’ll need to hit more balls in the air to access a star-caliber ceiling.

Although Baty is currently a below-average defender, he has the raw tools to improve to league average with sufficient effort. For the sake of comparison, Baty’s range, throwing skills, and athleticism are superior to those of Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, White Sox (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 526 PA, 23 HR, 3 SB, .314/.371/.524

Colas had an encouraging stateside debut, blitzing through High- and Double-A before finishing with a power show over 33 plate appearances at Triple-A. Despite hitting .387/.424/.645 in that brief taste of Triple-A, Colas also recorded a 36.4 percent strikeout rate and 21.6 percent swinging-strike rate. The White Sox have done little to resolve an opening in right field, leaving the position an open battle between Gavin Sheets, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia, and others. Colas is expected to have a legitimate opportunity to make the Opening Day roster. The left-handed slugger has a couple traits in common with Baty – namely, he produces high exit velocities with too many ground balls. There are also questions about his plate discipline, breaking ball recognition, and feel for contact. Overall, Colas has a volatile profile – the sort one could picture winning Player of the Week honors and experiencing an 0-for-30 slump in the same season.

Drew Waters, 24, OF, Royals (MLB)
(MLB) 109 PA, 5 HR, .240/.324/.479

A former top prospect in the Braves system who lost his luster in recent seasons, Waters is another volatile outfielder with a wide range of plausible outcomes. The Royals found 109 plate appearances for him last season. He’s primed to start in 2023 following the trade of Michael A. Taylor. Since joining the Royals in the middle of 2022, Waters has posted uncharacteristically high walk rates – possibly an important sign of improvement. Long considered an undisciplined hitter, he’s always had issues with low walk and high strikeout rates. It’s worth noting his swinging-strike rate improved along with the improved walk rate. Waters can produce an above-average maximum exit velocity, but his 84.1-mph average exit velocity was among the league’s worst. All told, there are a lot of moving parts to Waters’ profile. The 2023 campaign should prove instructive for his future role.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS/2B, Braves (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

Like teammate Michael Harris, Grissom skipped Triple-A last season and still managed to perform remarkably well. He’s an effective Spring Training away from an Opening Day role in the Braves’ middle infield. While he’s no longer a rookie, there’s no question he’s still a developing young player. Per reports, infield coach Ron Washington is encouraged by his development as a shortstop this offseason. That’s a necessary improvement, as defensive metrics indicate he struggled as a second baseman last season. Presently, the Braves’ shortstop options amount to Grissom, Orlando Arcia, Ehire Adrianza, and Hoy Park. It’s possible opposing scouts figured out how to exploit Grissom at the plate late last season. His final 53 plate appearances amounted to a .174/.264/.196 triple-slash. He also struck out in all three postseason plate appearances.

Darell Hernaiz, 21, SS, Athletics (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 452 PA, 12 HR, 32 SB, .273/.341/.438

The Athletics’ return in yesterday’s Cole Irvin trade with the Orioles, Hernaiz was considered by both clubs to be more valuable than Irvin despite the pitcher’s success in the Majors. Hernaiz’s path to a regular role in Baltimore was narrow and unlikely to be achieved. He’s praised for his work ethic and baseball acumen, leading most scouts to consider him a future utilityman as a floor. He could stand to improve his plate discipline, though it isn’t a fatal flaw like with many aggressive, young hitters. He has above-average feel for contact and has shown unexpected growth in the power department. He’s expected to remain a contact-over-power hitter. As a defender, he’s sure-handed but might lose the footspeed necessary to remain at shortstop – especially in a post-shifts era.

In my opinion, this was an intelligent move by both clubs. The Athletics landed an up-and-coming prospect who would have remained overshadowed had he stuck in the Orioles’ farm system.

Three More

Connor Norby, Orioles (22 years old): For most clubs, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg would serve as an enviable middle infield prospect duo with Jackson Holliday offering a down-the-road reinforcement. Baltimore has additional depth, rendering Hernaiz a practically unusable luxury. Norby is Major League adjacent and hit 29 home runs across three levels last season. I get vague Chase Utley vibes from him – meaning his production comfortably exceeds his appearance. After a few looks, you’ll come to expect clutch hits in big spots.

Joey Ortiz, Orioles (24): Ortiz is also Major League adjacent. A gritty gamer, Ortiz seems destined to fill an oft-used utility role in the Orioles’ loaded infield. The club is enamored with Ortiz and may struggle to find another team that likes him as much as them, even though he’d project as a starter in most systems. His presence could help them feel comfortable dealing Westburg if and when a blockbuster opportunity emerges.

Jose Salas, Twins (19): Acquired as ballast in the Luis Arraez trade, Salas is considered a high-probability future big leaguer. As with most developing teenagers, there’s a wide degree of plausible outcomes ranging from emergency bench depth to future front-line starter. A switch-hitter, there are still exploitable holes in his swing from both sides of the plate. It’s also unclear how his power will develop.

Big Hype Prospects: Wood, Holliday, Williams, Rodriguez, Crow-Armstrong

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The international signing market is well underway. We can think of these mostly 16-year-old boys as transplanted seeds. Some of them will grow big and strong over the next half-decade. Others will sprout then later wither during a drought or cold spell. Many won’t take to the new soil in which they’re planted. Perhaps the soil is too base or acidic. Or maybe a team thought they were buying one type of seed and actually got another. The wrong type of nurturing can ruin a plant. As outside observers, we can check back in a year or three once these youngsters have taken to their new soil.

Plant metaphor aside, we have a honking update from Baseball America to chew upon this week. They’ve released their initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list. I’m pleased to point out that Big Hype Prospects has correctly anticipated several notable surges up the prospect ranks, most notably number one overall Gunnar Henderson, number three Jackson Chourio, and number five Andrew Painter. Today, I’ll focus on a few names who have shot up the ranks.

For those of you who have been frustrated by the lack of “Big Hype” in our offseason prospects coverage, this is the episode for you.

Five BHPs In The News

James Wood, 20, OF, WSH (A)
(R/A) 348 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .313/.420/.536

Wood drew attention as the principal return in the Juan Soto trade. While he was joined by several promising young players, Wood is now seen as the “big get” in the deal. One concern from professional evaluators is the lack of successes from the Nationals development pipeline. While they’ve had a few big stars over the years (i.e. Soto), they’ve also seen a number of top prospects vastly underperform expectations (i.e. Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom).

If we assume the club doesn’t find some way to spoil Wood, there’s considerable upside here. Wood is built like a young Oneil Cruz. He’s a lean, physical giant with above-average speed, light tower raw power, a surprising feel for contact, and natural plate discipline. Like many young players, his contact profile is still geared toward ground balls. He also has an all-fields approach which has helped with his BABIPs at the expense of home runs. These will be the areas of his game likeliest to differentiate between a core performer or superstar future. Wood ranks 11th on the new Top 100 list.

Jackson Holliday, 19, 2B/SS, BAL (A)
(R/A) 90 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .297/.489/.422

The first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday checks in as the 15th prospect per Baseball America. In limited exposure, he demonstrated pristine plate discipline and only rarely whiffed. The Orioles have recently garnered a sterling reputation when it comes to developing middle infielders. Holliday is still built like a typical 19-year-old athlete. He’s expected to add weight in the coming years. Scouts believe he’ll grow into 60-grade power. “Grow” is the operative word. Holliday and the Orioles will want to be careful. Too much growth could lead to a future as a second baseman with average or worse speed. Too little growth could leave his bat lacking thump.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AA)
(A+/AA) 115 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.96 ERA

Williams looks the part of a future ace, combining an effective upper-90s heater with a plus slider and curve. Like many power pitchers, his changeup flashes as usable but lags behind the other offerings enough that it’ll play fourth fiddle. A fly-ball pitcher with average command, Williams should be ready to contribute in Cleveland this season – health allowing. Williams is rated 20th by Baseball America. Between him and fast-rising Daniel Espino (19th-ranked), the Cleveland rotation could feature two lethal aces by the start of 2024.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 531 PA, 25 HR, 2 SB, .323/.407/.590

Back in September, my sources were talking about bumping Rodriguez onto their Top 100 lists. I said the following:

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Rodriguez now ranks 23rd. Victory lap complete, Rodriguez is on the cusp of reaching the Majors. The Pirates have quietly given their roster a chance to “surprise contend.” One position they’ve done little to solve is catcher. They’re currently set to roll out a duo of defensive specialist Austin Hedges and perennial third-catcher Tyler Heineman.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHI (MLB)
(A/A+) 423 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .312/.376/.520

Crow-Armstrong is spoken of as a Kiermaierian defender, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire minor leagues. On this strength, Baseball America has ranked him 25th. Concerns about his hit tool have been alleviated following a successful 2022 campaign. It’s now believed he’ll settle in as an above-average hitter in addition to being the best defensive outfielder in the league. While that sounds like the profile of an easy Top 10 prospect, there are still enough ways for his bat to stumble to merit caution. The next hurdle for him is to see how his bat reacts to higher-quality breaking balls in the upper minors.

Five More

Kodai Senga, NYM (29): This column typically avoids international free agents. Technically, Senga is a prospect and ranks 16th. From the perspective of immediate contribution, only Henderson and Corbin Carroll are in the same stratosphere. Of course, Senga’s advanced age reduces his “value” as a prospect.

Evan Carter (20): Carter, another guy whose rise was anticipated by this column, is frequently comped to Brandon Nimmo. The left-handed hitter is carried by plate discipline and a feel for contact. His power isn’t a total zero, but it lags behind his other hitting traits. He might top out as a 20-homer threat, or he might not climb that far. Even so, he’s a high-probability future core performer. He’s ranked 26th. Teams value these sorts of players – just look at what Nimmo earned in free agency.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): There’s disagreement about which of the Diamondbacks young pitchers will turn out as the best performer. Baseball America has hitched its stakes to Pfaadt after his breakout 2022 campaign. He ranks 27th. We discussed him last week.

Marco Luciano, SFG (21): At one point, Luciano was trending toward top overall prospect status – much the way Chourio is now. Some of Luciano’s skills haven’t developed as expected, and his meteoric rise has stalled to a more gradual approach to the Majors. Luciano, 37th-ranked, still projects as a prodigious power hitter, one with flaws and a future move down the defensive spectrum.

Kevin Parada, NYM (21): At 50th on the list, Parada’s was the first name to catch me entirely by surprise. The 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Parada ranks where he does due to promising offensive traits and roughly average defense. Parada was taken with the compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker in 2021. Rocker, you might note, does not rank in the Top 100.

Big Hype Prospects: Florial, Tiedemann, Amaya, Tovar, Vargas

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For this week’s post, let’s look at some prospects who might be affected by recent rumors….

Five BHPs In The News

Estevan Florial, 25, OF, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 461 PA, 15 HR, 39 SB, .283/.368/.481

Although Florial has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors, he has just 63 plate appearances to his name. The left-handed hitter has yet to find success in New York, batting a combined .185/.302/.278. Now out of minor league options, Florial is poised to participate in a good old-fashioned Spring Training battle for oufield playing time. Barring a trade, the Yankees are running out of free-agent challengers for in-house options like Florial, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa for left field. They also added Willie Calhoun and Rafael Ortega as non-roster depth.

It’s easy to spot Florial’s biggest weakness; no matter the quality of competition, he consistently posts a high swinging strike rate. Florial is also a disciplined hitter, which means he takes his fair share of looking strikes. These traits contribute to an over 30 percent strikeout rate. Successful hitters of this type (i.e. Kyle Schwarber) have an excellent quality-of-contact profile, but since Florial hasn’t yet demonstrated an ability make such contact, his future as a Major League regular is dependent on skills growth. Should his strikeout rates and/or quality of contact improve, he has easy double-plus speed and enough raw power to become an entertaining regular. Even if Florial remains a role player, his speed dovetails nicely with the new baserunning-related rules. Even if playing time might be hard to come by in the crowded New York outfield, Florial could serve as a useful pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

Ricky Tiedemann, 20, SP, TOR (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 78.2 IP, 13.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

A 2021 third-round draftee, Tiedemann is on the shortlist with the likes of Andrew Painter and Eury Perez for best pitching prospect aged 20 and under. We’ve covered him a few times within the confines of this column. The Blue Jays appear headed toward a Spring Training battle for the fifth starter role, and Tiedemann is an attractive (albeit longshot) option for the job. The southpaw has three plus pitches, although reports suggest he could do with more time in the minors to better learn how to command his offerings. An Opening Day roster spot seems implausible, but we could see Tiedemann in Toronto by midseason. One caveat is his workload, as he averaged just over four innings per start last season and typically faced between 17 and 20 batters. Between low per-outing and total innings, Tiedemann might be more focused on stretching out than contributing in 2023.

Jacob Amaya, 24, SS, MIA (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 567 PA, 17 HR, 6 SB, .261/.369/.427

We covered Amaya a little over a month ago when speaking of the Dodgers middle infield depth. The skinny is straightforward – he’s a patient hitter with a history of modest exit velocities and too much ground ball contact. The profile is that of a second-division starter or utility man. Acquired by the Marlins as the return for Miguel Rojas, Amaya should find his way to the Majors at some point this season – possibly Opening Day. Unlike higher-profile prospects, the Marlins have little incentive to worry about Amaya’s club control. He could potentially form a platoon with Joey Wendle or join Jon Berti and Jordan Groshans as flexible bench depth.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (MLB)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Tovar has just 23 plate appearances in Triple-A and another 35 in the Majors. Even so, the Rockies seem intent to include Tovar on the Opening Day roster. Colorado explored at least one trade of infielder Brendan Rodgers, and the free agent options to fill a middle infield role are beginning to dwindle. Even with Rodgers in the fold, Tovar could still garner a starting job. The shortstop is expected to have some issues with swinging strikes early in his career, particularly with breaking balls outside of the zone. An aggressive approach might help him to avoid strikeouts.

Miguel Vargas, 23, UT, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Major League pitchers figured out how to work above Vargas’ barrel in a limited 50 plate appearance trial last season. Vargas has both discipline and a feel for contact. The Dodgers are adept at deploying their hitters in beneficial matchups. Look for Vargas to form a very loose platoon with the likes of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and James Outman across multiple positions. His reputation for barreling baseballs suggests he’ll adapt to high fastballs. If not, he can still be used against pitchers who lack that particular weapon or otherwise have poor command. He’s considered particularly adept at hitting breaking balls.

Three More

JJ Bleday, MIA (25): No longer rookie-eligible after making 238 plate appearances last season, Bleday nonetheless remains an unproven prospect with an uncertain future in Miami. Bleday did well to adapt his swing after a disappointing 2021 campaign, but he is an extreme flyball hitter who seems destined to require a friendlier home venue. The Marlins’ rumored interest in Max Kepler could affect Bleday’s opportunities in 2023.

Stone Garrett, WSH (27): A late-bloomer who signed with the Nationals early in the offseason, Garrett could be the next Patrick Wisdom. The sluggers aren’t perfect clones of one another, but they’re known for whiffing often and putting a charge into it when they connect. Garrett has an over-aggressive approach and questionable breaking ball recognition.

Brett Baty, NYM (23): Now that Carlos Correa has officially re-signed with the Twins, Baty should be back in the Mets long-term plans. The patient lefty hitter is expected to bat for a high average. Between power-suppressant CitiField and a grounder-oriented approach, Baty’s high exit velocities might not parlay into many home runs. His third base defense is considered below average, though I would hazard his baseline is higher than that of Alec Bohm. If Bohm can work his way up to acceptable defense, Baty should be able to do the same.

Big Hype Prospects: Lewis, Casas, Smith, Duran, Jameson

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The Hot Stove has been turned off. Big Hype Prospects (and baseball at large) enters the coldest month. Still, we have much to discuss.

Five BHPs In The News

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (MLB)
41 PA, 2 HR, .300/.317/.550

A former first-overall pick, Lewis showed signs of breakout in 2020 but wasn’t able to take the field. He also lost his 2021 campaign. Encouragingly, he posted a .313/.405/.534 line in 153 Triple-A plate appearances last season. He also hit five home runs with 12 steals and an uncharacteristically high 11.8 percent walk rate. One of the main knocks against him as a hitter is overaggression. Alas, he required surgery on his ACL and is expected to be out until next June or July. While injuries have plagued his early career, he’s still managed encouraging skill growth.

This winter has served as a rollercoaster from the perspective of Lewis’ future role with the Twins. Aggressive offers to Carlos Correa made it seem as if Minnesota had a shot to sign him. Then, as we’re all aware, Correa agreed to contracts with the Giants and then the Mets. The door was open for Lewis to supplant Kyle Farmer at midseason. Now, the Twins are back in on Correa. Recent rumors make it seem as if they have a real shot. If they ink Correa, Lewis will move down the defensive spectrum.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Casas came up in the last edition of BHP so I’ll refer you there for a description of him as a player. More recently, he’s been tied to the Marlins in trade talks. Miami is shopping its rotation depth while hunting for an impactful lineup presence. Curiously, fan reactions on social media seem opposed to a deal from both perspectives. Red Sox fans have been sold on Casas as a mid-lineup contributor. He certainly seems to check all the desirable hitter boxes – power, discipline, and a decent rate of contact. It’s well established that pitchers are less reliable than hitters from a health perspective. Sox fans would rather discuss dealing the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela as part of a package. Following the DFA of Lewin Diaz – who was once described in similar ways to Casas, Marlins fans are understandably hesitant to burn their pitching depth on a first baseman – a position many view as easy to solve in free agency. The club can stand to upgrade at nearly every offensive position.

Josh Smith, 25, UT, TEX (MLB)
253 PA, 2 HR, 4 SB, .197/.307/.249

A utility man acquired from the Yankees as part of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith technically burned his rookie eligibility last year. He demonstrated the plate discipline and contact rate for which he’s known but struggled with the quality of said contact. He blends a fly ball profile with poor barreled and hard contact rates. His 105.4-mph max exit velocity is well below league average. Fly ball hitters who make consistently weak contact typically don’t start.

Earlier in the offseason, the Rangers were reportedly shopping Smith (and the next guy) for upgrades elsewhere. He’s also in the left field mix – a deep collection of interesting but unestablished outfielders. Connecting a few dots, the Rangers recent interest in Bryan Reynolds could have implications for Smith – either because his path to playing time is that much longer or he’s been dealt to the Pirates. The Rangers are known for a fly ball-oriented approach to their hitting instruction. Smith might benefit from an organization that invests in a more balanced contact profile.

Ezequiel Duran, 23, UT, TEX (MLB)
220 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .236/.277/.365

As with Smith, the Rangers perhaps prematurely used Duran’s rookie year. A third baseman who has been forced off the position by Josh Jung, Duran has moderate issues with plate discipline and contact rate. He features above-average raw power as evidenced by a 110.2-mph max exit velocity. However, if he qualified, his 85.9-mph average exit velocity would have ranked among the bottom 20 in the league. Consistency held him back in his debut. Duran doesn’t have an obvious role on the Rangers roster and has much to learn in all facets of his game.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
24.1 IP, 8.88 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.48 ERA

Jameson is one of several young pitchers battling for a rotation role with the Diamondbacks. After allowing a 6.95 ERA over 114 innings at Triple-A last season, I was skeptical about his ability to fit in a Major League rotation. Four starts did much to assuage my doubts. He’s a gimmicky pitcher who might best be used for short outings or relief work.

Pitch extension – the distance from the rubber when the pitcher releases the ball – is a trait taught by many organizations for a few reasons. The state of the arts suggests pitchers with average or better extension are more likely to have smoother mechanics. Extension also plays with perceived velocity. Jameson has among the worst extension in the league. His reach is short enough to play with hitters’ timing because his offerings feel like the crawl to home plate. It’s not uncommon to see hitters take uncomfortable swings against his two fastballs. Jameson has above-average command and also wields a slider he can throw for called strikes or swings out of the zone. His two fastballs both tunnel well with his two-location slider. Unfortunately, the heaters are very homer prone on account of his poor extension.

Three More

Ryne Nelson, ARI (24): Nelson is a typical pitching prospect possessing a four-pitch repertoire. He leans heavily on his fastball which he typically uses up in the zone to draw whiffs and weak fly balls. Neither his slider nor curve have stepped forward as his dominant breaking ball, though both offerings draw 50 grades from multiple evaluators. His changeup still lags behind his other pitches. He could slot into a high-leverage relief role. As a starter, he needs further refinement to become more than an innings eater.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): Unlike Jameson and Nelson, Pfaadt has yet to cut his teeth in the Majors. His minor league results are the most encouraging of the trio. A fly ball pitcher who generates plenty of swinging strikes and avoids free passes, Pfaadt shows advanced feel for using his repertoire to manipulate opposing hitters. There’s debate as to the quality of his specific offerings. It’s hard to pin down because he seemingly has used at least six distinct pitches.

Lenyn Sosa, CWS (22): Sosa was overmatched in a brief trial during the 2022 campaign, but he performed ably at Double- and Triple-A. He’s currently in the White Sox second base mix, competing with the likes of Romy Gonzalez and Leury Garcia. Scouts typically describe him as a future role player due to below-average athleticism. He habitually expands the strike zone.

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