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Chris Sale Cleared To Begin Throwing

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Red Sox ace Chris Sale has been cleared to begin throwing again after a visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI Radio. The goal is for Sale to be a full go for Spring Training in a few short months. Sale’s latest visit to the physician comes as a follow-up to an August appointment in which Sale received a platelet-rich plasma injection.

The Red Sox had originally expected to have their star lefty re-evaluated six weeks after the fact, but their early departure from the playoff picture allowed them to play it slow when it became apparent that Sale wouldn’t be needed in October. So the prolonged timeline is not reflective of Sale’s progress; assistant GM Brian O’Halloran said that “the rehab has gone very well and Chris is exactly where we want him to be.”

Sale missed all of September and much of August after encountering problems with his throwing elbow, landing on the injured list after experiencing inflammation in the wake of an August 13 start.

Even when he was healthy, Sale wasn’t himself, finishing the season with a 4.40 ERA, the worst mark of his career. His peripheral numbers were more in line with his career norms, but that did little to mitigate concerns about diminished fastball velocity. Luckily, it seems that Sale’s early-season dip in velocity was unconnected to the elbow injury, which is believed to have surfaced in August.

Still, any unanswered questions will be magnified by Sale’s hefty price tag, with a five-year contract extension worth $145MM taking effect in 2020, when Sale will earn $30MM. He’ll earn similar salaries through his age-35 season. From a financial perspective, Sale’s injury concerns could hardly have come at a worse time, but it seems there’s hope that Sale’s 2019 injuries won’t linger into the offseason and beyond. He didn’t suffer any ligament damage, and today’s update should inspire some optimism that Sale will once again be a stalwart in the Boston rotation and return to the Cy Young form that he maintained for the better part of a decade.

AL East Notes: Avisail, Pedroia, Johnson, Orioles

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Avisail Garcia has been a popular figure in the first weeks of free agency, and his list of suitors includes Garcia’s most recent organization.  “There is interest, and engagement” from the Rays in a reunion with Garcia, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, updating his own report from late October that originally detailed the potential for another contract between the two sides.  Garcia was a nice low-cost buy for Tampa last offseason, as the outfielder inked a one-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rays and hit .282/.332/.464 with 20 homers (good for a 111 OPS+ and 112 wRC+) while posting slightly above-average hard-hit ball numbers and defensive metrics in right field.

This solid but unspectacular season might keep Garcia within Tampa Bay’s rather limited price range, as MLBTR predicted only a two-year, $12MM deal for Garcia this winter.  A bigger question could be where Garcia fits into a Rays outfield that already has Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, though the right-handed hitting Garcia is a nice complement amidst lefty swingers like Meadows and first base/DH options like Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • While Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia intends to resume his career in 2020 after multiple knee surgeries, “the most optimistic projection for Pedroia would be playing for the Sox in late May or June,” Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears from multiple sources.  Pedroia has appeared in only nine games over the last two seasons, and with so much uncertainty around his availability, second base is a clear area of need for the team this winter.
  • Both Abraham and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford were surprised by Boston’s decision to waive left-hander Brian Johnson earlier this week, though Johnson remained with the Red Sox (and outrighted off the 40-man roster) after going unclaimed.  Johnson is also out of minor league options, which dimmed his value to other teams, Abraham hears from an evaluator.  The timing of the move may have been tactical on the club’s part, Bradford notes, as Johnson was waived not long after other teams had set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and thus didn’t have the space to spare on a southpaw who pitched well in 2017-18 before struggling last year.  The transaction caught Johnson himself by surprise, as he told Bradford, though “in the grand scheme of things I’m just not on the 40-man.  My goals don’t change.  I have the same goal going into spring training, fighting for a job either in the bullpen or starting.”
  • Some of the offseason’s early moves have seemingly removed two potential Orioles trade partners for Trey Mancini or Mychal Givens, the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli writes.  Mancini could have been a possible long-term piece for a White Sox team that appears ready to start competing, but Chicago’s extension with Jose Abreu and signing of Yasmani Grandal (as a part-time first baseman and DH, to go with his catching duties) would seem to limit Mancini to the outfield for the Sox, a less-than-ideal defensive fit.  As for Givens, the Braves had interest in the right-hander at the trade deadline but have now addressed their bullpen needs by signing Will Smith and re-signing Chris Martin and Darren O’Day.

Brian Johnson Clears Waivers

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Nov. 27: Johnson went unclaimed on waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A Pawtucket, the team announced. He doesn’t have the requisite service time to reject that assignment in favor of free agency, so he’ll remain with the Red Sox organization and hope for another chance at the MLB level in 2020.

Nov. 25: The Red Sox have placed southpaw Brian Johnson on outright waivers, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). That starts a two-day window within which Johnson can be claimed.

Johnson, who’ll soon turn 29, struggled to a 6.02 ERA in 40 1/3 innings in Boston last year. Elbow troubles limited his availability and perhaps contributed to his ineffectiveness.

A first-round pick in 2012, Johnson turned in excellent results and overcame some challenges on his way up the farm ladder. He wasn’t much of a strikeout hurler but was obviously tough to square up, as opposing hitters produced meager batting averages on balls in play and didn’t muster many home runs.

That has generally been the case in the majors as well, as Johnson averages less than 90 mph with his fastball and doesn’t get many swings and misses. But he was able to limit the hard contact and post a 4.34 ERA in the 130 2/3 MLB innings he threw before the ’19 campaign.

Quick Hits: Reddick, Cubs, Betts, Attendance

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A few quick items from around the game…

  • Astros outfielder Josh Reddick underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder AC joint on Friday, according to a tweet from Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (link). Despite the apparently ailing shoulder, Reddick managed to appear in 151 games last season, his seventh full go-around in the majors. Reddick is expected to be ready for Spring Training, on the heels of a rather tepid 2019 that saw him hit .275/.319/.409 (94 wRC+) while grading out as a below-average regular on the whole (1.1 fWAR). After falling short in this year’s Fall Classic, it will be interesting to see what the club does with regard to Reddick. The 32-year-old is due one more season of $13MM salary before hitting free agency next offseason, so it’s not as if a trade is a likely scenario. Still, Reddick’s spot in the outfield, along with the club’s current vacancy at catcher, strikes this writer as an area of potential improvement for club president of baseball ops Jeff Luhnow to explore this winter. At the least, it will be interesting to see how Reddick’s 2020 playing time is impacted by promising in-house youngster Kyle Tucker.
  • Earlier today we brought news of the Yankees’ hire of Rachel Balkovec, 32, to a minor league hitting coach role. According to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, it appears the Cubs have also hired a 32-year-old Rachel with an impressive resume to their player development corps, with Bastian relaying that Marshall alum Rachel Folden will now serve as the lead hitting lab tech and fourth coach for Chicago’s Rookie League Mesa affiliate (link). Folden comes to the Cubs with experience instructing baseball and softball players “based on biomechanics, science, technology and data” via her own fastpitch instructional enterprise. Folden’s primary connection to the Cubs comes through Justin Stone, Chicago’s new director of hitting, who previously deployed Folden as a hitting consultant at his own Elite Baseball Training academy. Stone, commenting on her hire, described Folden as the “perfect person” to cross the implicit barriers that have long sidelined professionals like Balkovec and Folden.
  • Earlier this winter, Red Sox team president and CEO Sam Kennedy said his club would “continue to engage” with the representatives of outfielder Mookie Betts in regard to extension talks, but Kennedy allowed on Friday that those talks have yet to begin, as noted in an article from Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (link). While new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran met with Betts’ reps from VC Sports during the GM Meetings last week, those talks are said to have been of a mostly informal nature. Kennedy had reiterated his desire to keep Betts in a Red Sox uniform several times this offseason, and it’s hardly unexpected that Bloom may still be getting a handle on the broadest aspects of his new role. Betts is projected to make $27.7MM this offseason in his final pass through arbitration and has long proclaimed a desire to test free agency.
  • MLB attendance slipped 1.5 percent in 2019, adding to a cumulative 8.5 percent drop dating back to 2012. Joe Sheehan of Baseball America places much of the blame for this attendance swoon at the doorstep of the “rebuilding processes that are leading to unwatchable baseball”. As Sheehan notes, the Phillies, Twins, Reds, and Padres all saw attendance increases after making a few impact additions last offseason, while even winning teams like the Indians saw fewer passes through the turnstiles after largely standing pat in the winter of 2018-2019. Of course, it’s also worth noting, by my own addition, that several of the teams flagging in the attendance category also operate in some of the smallest and least economically flourishing metropolitan markets (although aspects of revenue sharing, of course, help to mitigate those factors).

East Notes: Mets, Ramos, BoSox, Holt, Rays, Braves

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The latest on a few East Coast clubs…

  • The Mets have reportedly shown interest in free-agent catcher Robinson Chirinos, but a union between the two sides doesn’t look realistic. Chirinos a starting-caliber catcher, after all, and the Mets already have a somewhat expensive No. 1 backstop in Wilson Ramos, who’s slated to earn $10.75MM through 2020 (including a $1.5MM buyout for ’21). While Ramos didn’t have a great year in 2019, his first as a Met, the team’s “committed to” him heading into next season, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. The 32-year-old Ramos was subpar behind the plate this season, evidenced by a 15 percent caught-stealing rate and a low ranking in Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs Above Average metric, but he did turn in another fine offensive campaign. Barring an unexpected turn, it seems he’ll start again next year for New York, though the team could bring in someone who – unlike Chirinos – is suited for a backup role.
  • The Red Sox reached out to free-agent utilityman Brock Holt about a new deal after the season, but there haven’t been discussions since they hired Chaim Bloom as their chief baseball officer Oct. 28, Holt told Barstool Sports’ Section 10 podcast (hat tip to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Although other teams have contacted Holt, he revealed there’s “nothing serious” brewing between him and any clubs. MLBTR predicts a two-year, $8MM contract for the versatile Holt, who’s coming off back-to-back solid seasons at the plate. The 31-year-old batted .297/.369/.402 in 295 PA in 2019, which is looking more and more like his last season as a member of the Red Sox.
  • The Rays made the decision to designate third baseman Matt Duffy for assignment Thursday after failing to find a trade partner for the 28-year-old, according to general manager Erik Neander (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). But moving on from the oft-injured Duffy was a tough call for the Rays, per Neander, who stated: “Wish that his health and his time with us would have gone different in that regard and we could have had him on the field more. He really is a special player and there’s the obvious stuff you can measure in how he impacts a game. His intangibles, his leadership, his influence on a younger impressionable clubhouse like we have is worth a lot.” Despite the respect the organization has for Duffy, Neander noted the Rays are happier with their current third basemen (including No. 1 option Yandy Diaz).
  • Much like his previous deal with the Rangers, the two-year, $14MM contract reliever Chris Martin signed with the Braves gives him the opportunity to become a free agent at the end of it, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Martin will only have three-plus years’ service time then, meaning he’d remain eligible for arbitration under normal circumstances, but there’s language built into the pact that will allow him to return to the open market when it expires.

Players Added To 40-Man Roster: American League

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We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from American League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.

AL West:

  • The Athletics made just one addition to the 40-man roster, righty Daulton Jefferies, which resulted in the DFA of righty Jharel Cotton (more on that move here).
  • The Rangers will add at least four players to their 40-man, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Infielder Sherten Apostel, outfielder Leody Taveras, and hurlers Demarcus Evans and Tyler Phillips are all reportedly set to get a slot. Taveras is the most exciting name of this bunch; by the reckoning of some observers, he’s one of the club’s best prospects. Apostel came over in the Keone Kela trade. The two pitchers are upper-minors arms who could contribute in 2020.
  • There’s 40-man movement elsewhere in Texas as well. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that the Astros have tacked on four players: Taylor Jones, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. The last of those is the one that came from the farthest reaches of the prospect map (half a season of High-A ball); clearly, the ’Stros see him as an up-and-comer and were worried other teams would as well. Jones had a strong season at Triple-A and could fight for a bench spot. Javier and Paredes could be in the MLB bullpen mix after running up the farm ladder with high strikeout rates in 2019.
  • The Angels have selected second baseman/outfielder Jahmai Jones and lefty Hector Yan, according to the club. Both players (Jones – No. 6; Yan – No. 17) rank among the Angels’ top 20 prospects at MLB.com. The 22-year-old Jones is a 2015 second-rounder who spent the past two seasons at the Double-A level, where he hit .234/.308/.324 in 544 plate appearances in 2019. Yan, a 20-year-old native of the Dominican Republic, rose to Single-A ball this past season and notched a 3.39 ERA/3.17 FIP with a whopping 12.22 K/9 against 4.29 BB/9 over 109 innings.

AL Central:

AL East:

  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and righty Thomas Hatch were the Blue Jays’ pair of roster additions on Wednesday. Toronto jettisoned Tim Mayza and Justin Shafer from the 40-man roster in a pair of corresponding moves, as explored at greater length here.
  • The Orioles announced that they’ve selected the contracts of left-hander Keegan Akin, right-hander Dean Kremer, infielder/outfielder Ryan Mountcastle and outfielder Ryan McKenna. Mountcastle, a former first-rounder, has long been considered among the organization’s most promising minor leaguers. Akin posted a down year in Triple-A in 2019 but has generally been successful and is viewed as a near-MLB ready arm.
  • The Red Sox have added infielders C.J. Chatham and Bobby Dalbec, outfielder Marcus Wilson, and lefties Kyle Hart and Yoan Aybar to their 40-man, the team announced.The most hyped farmhand there is Dalbec, whom MLB.com ranks as the Red Sox’s second-best prospect. The 24-year-old reached the Triple-A level for the first time in 2019 after obliterating Double-A pitching, and he posted a .257/.301/.478 line with seven home runs and 29 strikeouts against just five walks over 123 trips to the plate.

AL Notes: Devers, Kopech, Martinez, Rangers

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We’re coming up on the three-year anniversary of the White Sox–Red Sox Chris Sale blockbuster. It’s tough to say either team regrets that deal at this point. Sale was instrumental in Boston’s 2018 World Series run and remains one’s of baseball’s best pitchers. Chicago, meanwhile, has reaped the benefits of a Yoán Moncada breakout season that saw him garner a down-ballot MVP vote. Michael Kopech, meanwhile, remains one of the sport’s most exciting young pitchers.

That pair (along with Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz) weren’t the only Boston farmhands the White Sox were targeting. At one point, Chicago asked for Rafael Devers, then a 20 year-old in High-A, Chicago general manager Rick Hahn tells David Laurila of Fangraphs. Suffice it to say, Boston has to feel good about rebuffing Devers’ potential inclusion, as he garnered even more MVP support than did Moncada after a breakout 2019 of his own. There’s no indication Devers talks ever got close, it should be noted, but it’s still an interesting counterfactual given the star player he has since become. Some more from the American League:

  • Speaking of Kopech, Hahn tells Laurila the fireballer is progressing as expected in his return from Tommy John surgery. The 23-year-old, who went under the knife in September 2018, logged a few innings in instructional league and enters the offseason fully healthy, per the GM. The club will no doubt be careful not to overwork the prized right-hander next season, but he seems on track to be a key factor in Chicago’s rotation mix. Kopech had dazzled in Triple-A in the two months preceding his big league call-up.
  • J.D. Martinez opted into his three-year, $62.5MM deal with the Red Sox earlier this month. Rob Bradford of WEEI hears that decision wasn’t an especially difficult one, “hardly coming down to the wire.” That seemingly reflects some tepidness among potential Martinez suitors as agent Scott Boras explored the star hitter’s market in advance of the decision. Speaking entirely speculatively, that could tamp down the likelihood of Martinez opting out after next season (at which point he’ll have to decide on a two-year, $38.7MM deal) or of the Sox finding a buyer if they look to shop Martinez this offseason as a means of cutting payroll. That said, Martinez remains an elite hitter, and other teams’ circumstances and interest can no doubt change in the coming months.
  • The Rangers unveiled a new $12.5MM academy in the Dominican Republic Friday, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. As Grant details, the facility is a significant step forward from previous conditions for Texas’ international signees. The Rangers’ front office believes that improving conditions for their youngest prospects will help them flourish on the field; current MLB first baseman Ronald Guzmán tells Grant that in the team’s previous cramped facility, illnesses spread among players quickly, which could no doubt have an adverse impact on players’ performance. Independent on any on-field benefits they’ll reap, the organization deserves credit for improving conditions for its players.

GM Meetings Notes: Mets, White Sox, Red Sox

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The Mets have about $20MM to spend to stay under the luxury tax, and though they haven’t ruled out going over for a season, history suggests otherwise, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The rotation is largely set with Cy Young Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz locked into the top four spots. Despite the rumblings, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been adamant about Syndergaard staying put, and as for the fifth rotation spot, relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are very real candidates. Free agent upgrades are more likely to bolster the bullpen, which is already a man down if Lugo or Gsellman jump to the rotation. Of course, the best upgrade they could hope for would come in the form of a bounceback season from closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz is putting in extra work this winter in Puerto Rico, and for what it’s worth, new manager and fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Beltran “considers mentoring Diaz one of his top priorities.” Here are some more notes coming out of the GM meetings…

  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn attempted to temper expectations before projecting bloated win totals for his club in 2020, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. It’s an exciting time nonetheless for those on the south side of Chicago, with high-end youngsters Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Michael Kopech expected to establish themselves as big leaguers. They have money to spend on pitching or an outfielder, and a tough decision to make on newly-minted gold glover Yolmer Sanchez. Madrigal is likely to unseat Sanchez from his regular role at second, and with Sanchez due to make roughly $6.2MM through arbitration, he’s definitely a possible non-tender. The Sox love him from a character perspective and aren’t eager to kick him curbside, but even with his new hardware in tow, $6.2MM after a .252/.318/.321 season is probably a touch too rich for the ChiSox.
  • The Red Sox are facing a different kind of offseason under the leadership of Chaim Bloom, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Scaling back the payroll is objective A, and the Red Sox are active in trade discussions around just about everyone on the roster. The media has Mookie Betts as the fulcrum of Boston’s trade activity, but he’s expensive on a one-year deal and unlikely to sign an extension, mitigating any trade return and making a deal unlikely. It’s more likely the Red Sox find their desired breathing room by trading from their rotation: David Price, Chris Sale, and/or Nathan Eovaldi. Meanwhile, discussions with free agents are largely on the backburner as they look for creative ways to free up space in the payroll.

Bloom: “Every Indication” Dustin Pedroia Will Try To Return In 2020

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Veteran Red Sox second bagger Dustin Pedroia has given “every indication” that he intends to play in 2020, newly minted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells reporters including Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. Pedroia, 36, underwent a mid-season knee procedure that left his career in doubt.

The issues in Pedroia’s left knee aren’t new, and they aren’t simple. At the time of his most recent surgery, it was far from clear whether he’d even try to resume playing. But Pedroia reported feeling good after going under the knife and is evidently still on an upward trajectory.

It still isn’t fully clear whether Pedroia will end up making a full push back towards the field. Bloom said he hasn’t been fully briefed on the medical situation and has yet to sit down with Pedroia. The front office intends to meet with the long-time Boston star over the next few days, while in Arizona for the GM meetings.

What is known, per Bloom, does seem promising. “Every indication I’ve gotten is he’s feeling good and intending on playing,” the incoming top baseball ops decisionmaker says of Pedroia. “I know he’s working really hard to make sure he’s in as good of shape as possible,” Bloom added.

Pedroia is owed $13MM for the 2020 season and $12MM for the ensuing campaign under his long-term extension. He has appeared in only nine games over the past two seasons, and will be coming back from the most serious in a string of surgeries, so it’s more or less impossible to know what to expect. But the Red Sox can hope that Pedroia will be more than a budget write-off, even if he can’t be presumed to be available — let alone tasked with regular duties. With the organization hoping to shed salary and remain competitive, Pedroia could be a piece of what figures to be a shifting roster puzzle.

Three Teams Exceeded 2019 Luxury Tax Threshold

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The Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs were the three teams to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times noted over the weekend. MLBTR has confirmed that is the complete and final list of organizations identified by Major League Baseball as owing competitive balance obligations.

Each of those clubs exceeded $206MM in 2019 payroll, as calculated by Major League Baseball pursuant to the rules governing the competitive balance tax. Generally, the CBT calculation looks to the average annual value of player contracts while also accounting for bonuses and other payroll-related expenses. The CBT threshold rises to $208MM in 2020 and then to $210MM in 2021.

Last year, the Red Sox and Nationals surpassed the spending threshold and paid taxes. The D.C. organization managed to duck under the line but could again be in that tax bracket if it spends to defend its World Series title. The Red Sox are expected to try to duck under the limbo bar in 2020. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have now gone two straight years without paying after a five-season streak of tax bills.

Precise calculations aren’t yet available, but Cot’s on Contracts has estimates of the complicated CBT tabulations. Their figures show both the Nats and Dodgers over the line, though obviously those organizations were able to sneak in just below. The Astros and Phillies appear to have been the next-biggest spenders, though both were a fair sight shy of any tax bills.

The Cot’s figures allow us to make some rough estimates of the actual amounts due. The Red Sox will pay the most, as they were the only team to incur tax liability for consecutive seasons, thus raising the rate. With an estimated payroll of just under $240MM, the Boston org will pay 30% on their first $20MM in overages and 42% on the rest, resulting in an estimated bill of just under $12MM.

The Cubs also ran up a tab that came in just shy of the $240MM mark by Cot’s reckoning. They are not a repeat luxury level team and therefore pay the base rate of 20% for the first $20MM and 32% for the next $20MM in salary over the threshold. That would result in a liability of a little under $8.5MM. Cot’s credits the Yankees with $234MM of spending for CBT purposes. Since the Bronx Bombers spent a year shy of the luxury line, they also get first-time treatment and would stand to owe just over $6.5MM.

None of the three teams came close to topping $246MM in payroll, at which point they’d not only have faced a bigger tax rate on further spending but also would’ve seen their top draft pick moved down the board ten spots. But the trio does still face some ongoing impact beyond the money owed. Inking a free agent who declined a qualifying offer will cost a bit more in compensation than it would have otherwise — specifically, $1MM in international amateur bonus pool spending capacity along with the team’s second and fifth-highest draft picks. The rules also suppress the level of compensation available to teams that lose QO’ed free agents after exceeding the luxury line, though none of these three clubs issued qualifying offers this offseason.

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