AL Notes: Red Sox, ALCS
Although Boston owner John Henry stated last month that the Red Sox were going to begin by “looking outward” in their search for a new GM/President, Rob Bradford of WEEI believes there is a “growing belief” around baseball that the club will ultimately hand the reins to an internal candidate (link). Although no sources are named in Bradford’s report, the silence surrounding Boston’s hiring search leads the writer to believe that the club may look inward in search of Dave Dombrowski’s successor. As Bradford points out, it’s possible that Henry’s comments were made with half a mind toward luring one of Mike Hazen, Theo Epstein, or Andrew Friedman to Beantown. Now that those potential candidates are staying put, it seems reasonable to wonder if ownership might be evaluating which of the four people currently running Boston’s baseball ops–Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreira–would be best suited for supreme leadership.
A serious offseason agenda will await whoever ultimately lands the job in Boston. The club has a stated goal of limboing under the CBT “luxury tax” line–an initiative that should prove mighty tough with both big contracts (David Price, Chris Sale) and forthcoming arb raises (Mookie Betts) on the 2020 ledger.
In other news from the American League…
- Mother Nature gave baseball an unscheduled rest day on Wednesday when she decided to pour vociferous showers along the East Coast–could she also have handed the Astros a competitive advantage in the ALCS? This is one question explored by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, who notes that the pause in the action has allowed manager AJ Hinch to skip Wednesday’s planned Jose Urquidy-plus-bullpen game (link). Instead, the ‘Stros will skip straight to a Justin Verlander/Zack Greinke 1-2 combo for games 4 and 5. “As soon as we can use our best pitchers, the better for us,” Hinch told reporters via teleconference. “It was an easy decision.” The rain delay will force both teams to play the next four games without delay (if games 6 and 7 prove necessary). This state of affairs figures to favor Houston, considering that their rotation makes them slightly less bullpen-reliant than New York. Of course, October is where the unexpected so often comes to pass, so it’s important to remember that Rome’s forecast is exactly that.
Red Sox Likely To Tender Jackie Bradley, Explore Trade
The Red Sox’s payroll has already emerged as one of the top stories to monitor in the upcoming offseason. With Boston’s “goal” of dropping their competitive balance tax number for 2020 south of the $208MM threshold, some difficult decisions are surely looming. After all, the Sox already have north of $150MM on the luxury tax ledger next season, per Spotrac, not counting arbitration-eligible players. (If J.D. Martinez were to opt-out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his deal, that would knock $22MM off the Sox’s tax ledger but potentially cost the team their best hitter).
On top of that, Boston’s upcoming arbitration class is massive, with twelve players projected to earn upwards of $70MM. A few (Chris Owings, Gorkys Hernández, Steven Wright) are easy non-tenders, which will knock the projected arbitration earnings down $5-6MM. Still, it’s clear that the math doesn’t position the Red Sox to reset their tax number especially easily. The team’s yet to be determined long-term baseball operations head will have some challenges to overcome.
To that end, Christopher Smith of Mass Live hears that the current front office is already discussing potential non-tenders which could ameliorate payroll concerns. While Jackie Bradley, Jr. (projected $11MM salary) may stand out as a speculative non-tender candidate, Smith opines it’s more likely than not the Sox will indeed tender the 29 year-old a contract. (Catcher Sandy León, Smith hears, is in bigger jeopardy of losing his job after another abysmal offensive showing.)
2019 was a disappointing one for Bradley, although he did rebound from a nightmarish April to post a pretty typical .225/.317/.421 line (90 wRC+). That marked the third straight season of below-average offensive production for Bradley, making his strong 2016 season look like an aberration. Of course, Bradley’s selling point has long been his outstanding glovework in center field, and that remains a strong suit, even if he’s not quite the defender he was at his peak. While DRS and UZR each considered him to be an average center fielder this season, Statcast was still enamored of his work, crediting him with six outs above average. That’s a far cry from the 15 and 12 outs above average Bradley was worth in 2017 and 2018, respectively, but he still remains an asset in the grass.
While Bradley’s absolutely still a major league caliber player, that estimated $11MM price tag is not insignificant for an organization looking to shed payroll. Indeed, Smith notes it’s likely the Red Sox would shop Bradley if they do follow through with an arbitration offer. The upcoming free agent market for center fielders is woeful, but Bradley would likely take a backseat in trade talks to Starling Marté, whom the Pirates should market this winter. Marté, while two years older than Bradley, has been the more productive of the two each of the past two seasons and comes with one additional year of team control.
Entirely speculatively, the Cubs, White Sox, Rangers and Phillies, among others, stand out as teams looking to contend in 2020 who have uncertainty in center field. Bradley’s price tag and lackluster offensive production mean he won’t return a huge prospect haul if Boston were to pull the trigger on a trade, so any team in baseball could put together an adequate package. With the Red Sox still on the lookout for a permanent voice atop the baseball ops department, it’s impossible to handicap at this point the odds of Bradley going elsewhere, much less pinpointing an exact destination. Nevertheless, it’s at least notable to hear that, as of now, the organization doesn’t seem inclined to let their longtime center fielder depart for nothing more than cash savings.
AL Notes: Yankees, Astros, Red Sox
Ken Davidoff of The New York Post spoke with a Rays official in the wake of the team’s close-but-not-quite battle with the mighty Houston Astros, and the Tampa employee believes his team’s ALDS strategy could end up changing the shape of the postseason. “We gave the Yankees a blueprint for how to pitch them,” the official told Davidoff (link).
There’s certainly some merit to that takeaway. Although the Astros have been expected to steamroll their way to the Fall Classic for most of the year (Fangraphs’ playoff odds have tabbed Houston with a 30 percent-or-better chance to win the championship for much of the season), the Rays came awfully close to taking them down within the first round of the playoffs, in part via a bullpen-heavy mix-and-match pitching strategy. As Davidoff points out, just one Rays pitcher–starter Charlie Morton–threw long enough to qualify for a decision in the ALDS, with manager Kevin Cash calling on 11 separate pitchers to tame the wild Astros offense. Houston’s offense mustered just a .700 OPS in the divisional round against this all-hands-on-deck approach, and will now square off with a Yankees team that, for what it’s worth, notched a competent 4.08 collective bullpen ERA in 2019 (good for 9th in MLB). However, Tampa’s approach, it should be noted, may have had something to do with the fact that Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, two of their frontline starters, were forced to work in limited capacity; the Yankees should be able to sport a more traditional look with their James Paxton/Luis Severino/Masahiro Tanaka starting triumvirate, although Severino’s own 2019 injury considerations could preclude an early dip into the pen by manager Aaron Boone.
- After reassigning Dana LeVangie to their scouting department, the Red Sox are in search of a new pitching coach. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe opines, that’s a search that could have great import for the club moving forward, as the Sox will be on to their fourth pitching coach in the last six seasons in 2020 (link). It’s also a hiring search that carries far more nuance than it might have in previous eras, as modern pitching coaches are expected to blend data and biomechanical considerations with the more traditional soft skills involved with instruction–and that’s before accounting for a coach’s personal baseball-playing background. As Abraham notes, the Twins hired Wes Johnson to be their main source of pitching instruction in 2018, despite Johnson’s complete lack of professional playing experience. The club’s ultimate selection should give some indication of the philosophical leanings of Boston’s current, interim leadership group, which includes assistant GM Eddie Romero; the new coach’s ability to reign in the talents of David Price and Chris Sale should go a long way toward finally bringing some stability to the Boston pitching post.
Quick Hits: Nix, JBJ, Alfaro
Padres minor league piitchers Jacob Nix and Tom Cosgrove were arrested on criminal trespassing charges Sunday in Peoria, Ariz., after Nix allegedly entered a home through a dog door, per Jessica Suerth of 12 News. The homeowner caught Nix trying to break in at 3:30 a.m. and kicked him in the face, at which point Cosgrove reached into the dog door in an attempt to get Nix out. The homeowner then hit Nix in the torso with a Taser as he and Cosgrove tried to flee the premises. The police found Nix and Cosgrove at a different home about 10 minutes away and took them into custody. Nix was ordered to post a $100 bond and appear in court Oct. 14, while Cosgrove was ordered to post a $50 bond. Cosgrove appeared in court on Tuesday. This bizarre story looks like the biggest professional setback yet for the 23-year-old Nix, a promising prospect who missed most of 2019 with damage in his right ulnar collateral ligament. Nix, who joined the Padres as a third-round pick in 2015, ranks as their 28th-best farmhand at MLB.com.
Now for some more conventional items from around the league…
- With the Red Sox set to embark on a payroll-cutting campaign this offseason, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. could wind up on the outs, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic observes (subscription link). “You always think about it,” Bradley told McCaffrey in regards to a potential trade, adding, “It’s one of those things you just have to wait and see what happens.” Trade rumors centering on Bradley aren’t anything new, but no other club has convinced Boston to move him yet. However, the soon-to-be 30-year-old’s team control is dwindling – he’ll be a free agent after next season – while his salary is rising. Bradley’s projected to earn $11MM in 2020, and that could be too rich for the Red Sox’s blood in the wake of a modest season for JBJ. He totaled just 1.4 fWAR, his lowest since 2014, while hitting .225/.317/.421 with 21 home runs, eight stolen bases across 567 plate appearances. Although Bradley’s offensive output in 2019 wasn’t much different than the production he posted over the prior two seasons, his defensive numbers fell off, as he notched both a negative DRS (minus-1) and UZR (minus-0.7) for the first time since 2013.
- While Jorge Alfaro will go into next season as the front-runner to start at catcher for the Marlins, they’ll at least “explore” adding depth at the position this winter, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. Alfaro, whom the Marlins acquired from the Phillies as part of last offseason’s J.T. Realmuto blockbuster, batted .262/.312/.425 with 18 homers over 465 plate appearances during his first season in Miami. Those are acceptable offensive numbers from a catcher, though it’s troubling that Alfaro struck out in at least 33 percent of PA for the second year in a row. Defensively, the cannon-armed 26-year-old did throw out 33 percent of would-be base-stealers, but he struggled in the framing and blocking aspects.
Red Sox Announce Coaching Staff Changes
The Red Sox announced several notable changes to the coaching staff under manager Alex Cora. In particular, the club will be hiring a new pitching coach duo.
While the Boston organization will retain the services of pitching coach Dana LeVangie and assistant pitching coach Brian Bannister, both will be reassigned. The former will join Steve Langone (who had been manager of advanced scouting) as pro scouts. Bannister will become VP of pitching development, thereby turning his attention to the organization’s farm system.
In addition, the club announced that Andy Barkett will not return as the assistant hitting coach. He had been in that role since the 2018 season, working alongside hitting coach Tim Hyers.
It isn’t entirely clear whether the Red Sox are contemplating any further changes to the staff, though it seems reasonable to presume that they’ll retain the remaining coaches. The club has continued to move ahead with fairly significant decisions even though it still lacks a single chief of its baseball operations department.
AL Notes: Adell, Etch, Mookie
A quick word of update on Angels outfielder Jo Adell, who has been turning heads in the Arizona Fall League–which isn’t to say that eyes weren’t already trained on him to begin with. After a 2019 season that saw Adell hit .289/.359/.475 with ten home runs across three levels and 341 plate appearances, the Kentucky native entered AFL play last month as MLB Pipeline’s 5th-ranked prospect in the game. As Kyle Glaser of Baseball America points out this morning, Adell is bolstering that pedigree with his most recent performance for the Mesa Solar Sox (link).
The 20-year-old Adell, who was selected 10th overall by Los Angeles in the 2017 draft, went 7-for-17 in AFL play last week with a home run and a balanced 5-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Adell reached as high as Triple-A in the Los Angeles system in 2019, although the team may want to see him improve upon the production he posted there in a small sample of 130+ plate appearances (to say nothing of the potential service time considerations involving a prospective star such as Adell). With outfielder Kole Calhoun a possibility to move on in free agency, there does figure, at least, to be some MLB opportunity for the youngster in 2020 when GM Billy Eppler deems him ready.
More from around the AL this Monday morning…
- A sad note of remembrance in recognition of the passing of Orioles organizational fixture Andy Etchebarren, who died this weekend at age 76. Etchebarren, an All-Star in his rookie season of 1966, was an important part of Baltimore’s mid-century dynasty. Perhaps most notably, the backstop helped catch, along with Elrod Hendricks, the Orioles’ four 20-game winners of 1971; it’s probably not un-noteworthy that the man known as “Etch” was also the last man to ever record an at-bat against Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax. After his playing career, as noted in a post from MASN’s Roch Kubatko (link), Etchebarren carved out a nice career for himself as a coach in the Baltimore pipeline, including stints as manager of the club’s Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, and time spent as the bench coach for former manager Davey Johnson.
- The site has already thoroughly explored the ongoing contract outlook for Red Sox superstar Mookie Betts. To recap, the club’s forthcoming CBT trapeze act, Betts’ impending arbitrational raise, and the player’s apparent ambivalence to signing an extension with the team have all coalesced to the point where the near-unthinkable–a trade involving the near-peerless Betts–may be a consideration this offseason. One factor that won’t figure into Betts status for 2020? Organizational tension. As noted in a piece from Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com, the four executives* in charge of Sox operations in the wake of the Dave Dombrowski firing–including assistant GM Eddie Romero–are not holding Betts’ businesslike approach to negotiation against him (link). “I think he’s doing what’s in the best interest of Mookie and I think that’s what athletes should do,” Romero told Cotillo. “Every situation of these is case-by-case. Mookie has been the one who has sacrificed his body and has put in the work. He has the right to decide what he wants to do.” In addition to Romero, team president Sam Kennedy and chairman Tom Werner both comment in Cotillo’s piece on their faith in Betts as both a person and a player, and Romero goes as far as to say that the player has “earned” the right to hit free agency. While this dialogue could just be seen as an encouraging bit of rationality in the front office realm, it is fair to wonder, for those reading tea leaves, whether such a congenial atmosphere could be foreshadowing to an amicable parting of ways between player and team.
*An earlier version of this post mistakenly referred to “four men” running the baseball operations department, when in fact the group of four executives is made up of one woman (Raquel Ferreira) and three men (Eddie Romero, Zack Scott, and Brian O’Halloran). We regret the error.
AL Notes: Alvarez, Astros, Benintendi, BoSox, Rays
The Astros and Dodgers “were at an impasse” in trade negotiations over reliever Josh Fields at the 2016 trade deadline, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said, before Luhnow decided to aim beyond L.A.’s farm system. As Luhnow tells MLB.com’s Alyson Footer, the Astros had had interest in Yordan Alvarez as an international signing before he agreed to a deal with Los Angeles in June 2016. “Really, it wasn’t until the day of the deadline that I remembered the Dodgers had signed Alvarez, and I thought, ‘Well, if we can’t get a minor league player that we’re really excited about, why don’t we just take a flier on this young guy that they just signed that I know we like?’ ” Luhnow said.
After that sudden brainstorm, the Fields-for-Alvarez trade was concluded fairly quickly, putting Alvarez (then a somewhat obscure 18-year-old prospect) onto a new team less than two months into his pro career. “I was surprised and a little worried. I didn’t know what a trade was,” Alvarez said. “I thought they might have been releasing me. I was really surprised, but when they explained it to me, I understood.” The rest, as they say, is history, as Alvarez blossomed in Houston’s farm system and then made an immediate impact at the big league level, hitting an incredible .313/.412/.655 with 27 homers over his first 369 Major League plate appearances.
More from around the American League…
- Andrew Benintendi put on some weight last winter in an attempt to add more power to his game, though in the wake of a down year, the Red Sox outfielder tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that the new goal is “to get lighter and more athletic this offseason.” Many tabbed Benintendi to break out into superstardom in the wake of his impressive 2018 season, though he ended up hitting only .266/.343/.431 over 615 PA in 2019. Some nagging injuries played a role, though Benintendi’s added bulk didn’t translate into more power, as he posted a lower slugging percentage and fewer homers (13) than in 2018. Benintendi is hoping that better health and a more back to his old speed-based game will result in a better 2020 season.
- Also from Bradford’s piece, he notes that Trey Ball and Teddy Stankiewicz have reached minor league free agency and could be unlikely to remain in the Red Sox farm system. Ball was chosen seventh overall in the 2013 draft while Stankiewicz was Boston’s second selection (45th overall) from that same class, though neither player has reached the big leagues. Bradford takes the opportunity to look back at a draft year that ended up as almost a complete miss for the Red Sox, as only five (Mauricio Dubon, Carlos Asuaje, Matt Thaiss, Gabe Speier, and Kyle Martin) of the 40 players selected have reached the majors, and none ever suited up in a Boston uniform. Still, the 2013 draft class did plant some indirect seeds for future success — Asuaje was part of the trade package the Sox sent to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel, while Speier was included as part of the Rick Porcello trade with the Tigers.
- The Rays used a trade-heavy approach in building their roster, though beyond the low-payroll franchise’s usual tactic of trading veterans when they become too expensive, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes that the Rays have also looked to add MLB-ready players rather than younger prospects, while also being willing to move minor leaguers of their own. “But increasingly we’ve been more open to swapping players…earlier in their career. I think at the end of the day, we recognize that we have to be wide open to any acquisition method that gives us a team that we like better than the one we had previously, be it for today or be it for tomorrow,” GM Erik Neander said. “The more near-term sensitivity we have competitively the better position we’re in, so that’s the goal. Striking that balance has to be a constant….Where you want to be is having a mindfulness on the short-term and not having it 100 percent pushed out to the future.” A whopping 16 of the 25 players on Tampa Bay’s ALDS roster were acquired through trades, most in under-the-radar swaps.
Looking For A Match In A Mookie Betts Trade
First of all, there’s more than a decent chance that Mookie Betts will still be a member of the 2020 Red Sox. As per Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy, the team’s intention to get payroll under the $208MM luxury tax threshold is a “goal but not a mandate,” so it isn’t as if the Red Sox are going into any sort of fire sale mode. While it seems the club will trim some salaries, they could achieve a lot of those savings in other areas (i.e. other trades or non-tenders, or J.D. Martinez could opt out of his contract) before fully exploring the idea of trading the 2018 American League MVP.
This being said, it wouldn’t be much fun if this post was titled “Looking To Pour Cold Water On A Fascinating Trade Possibility.” And, with Betts still firm in his intent to test the free agent market after the 2020 season, there’s certainly a chance he will be wearing another uniform anyway on Opening Day 2021. For a Red Sox organization that is looking for a creative way to shed salary and reload its minor league system, trading Betts before his final year of team control is an option that should at least be on the table, if certainly not one to be taken lightly.
Betts earned $10.5MM in 2018 after defeating the Red Sox in an arbitration case, and his epic MVP campaign saw his salary rise to $20MM in 2019. After hitting .295/.391/.524 with 29 homers over 706 plate appearances last season, Betts is in line for another big raise in third and final trip through the arb process. Matt Swartz will be publishing MLBTR’s official arbitration projections within a few weeks, though he has informed me that Betts is currently projected to earn $27.7 or $27.8MM for the 2020 season (depending on whether Betts’ base 2019 salary is increased by a bonus should he win a Gold Glove).
That number certainly looms large in any discussion of a Betts trade, given that several teams may balk at committing that much money to a single player (even a superstar like Betts) if they have luxury tax concerns of their own. Plus, a team trading for Betts would have to be expecting to have him for one season at the most. Betts has been so adamant in exploring free agency that it’s very unlikely that he pulls a Paul Goldschmidt and signs an extension with a new team rather than finally get a crack at the open market.
With only one year of Betts on offer, the Red Sox know that trading the outfielder won’t solve all their problems. There’s no chance, for instance, of another payroll-clearing blockbuster like Boston’s legendary August 2012 trade with the Dodgers, since Betts lacks the long-term appeal that Adrian Gonzalez (the Dodgers’ primary target) held for Los Angeles.
Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December. Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer. That said, Goldschmidt was also only making $14.5MM in salary in 2019, whereas Betts’ 2020 salary could be almost double that number.
Let’s go through the other 29 teams to see if we can find a fit as a Betts suitor…
No Chance
The Marlins, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are all rebuilding. And the Red Sox would never trade Betts to the arch-rival Yankees, as amusing as it would be to see New York somehow land another Boston superstar almost exactly 100 years after the Babe Ruth deal.
Probably Not
The Rockies don’t have much salary wiggle room to add an expensive player like Betts. Likewise, payroll restraints will likely keep the Pirates and Diamondbacks out of the mix, though Arizona GM Mike Hazen knows Betts well from their time together in Boston. The Brewers also likely face similar financial restraints, plus they don’t have much elite young talent to grab Boston’s interest. The Rangers are another team without much in the way of blue-chip minor league talent, and while Texas is planning to spend more as the team moves into its new ballpark next season, longer-term acquisitions would seem to make more sense for the Rangers than a win-now move like acquiring Betts. Likewise, the Giants are more apt to pursue a long-term option if they go after any premium players at all (i.e. their interest in Bryce Harper last winter).
I put the Cubs a tick above the other “probably not” teams because they’re under increasing pressure to win in 2020, and could potentially be open to some type of creative swap that could see Chicago and Boston shift around several of their undesirable contracts, in addition to sending Betts to Wrigleyville. But there would seemingly be a lot of moving parts in such a deal, and the Cubs have their own set of luxury tax concerns. Plus, while the Sox and Cubs have made a few minor trades since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs’ baseball operations department, one wonder if Red Sox management could be hesitant about sending a star player Epstein’s way.
Probably Not, AL Contenders Edition
The Red Sox wouldn’t have quite the same reservations about sending Betts to another AL rival as they would about putting him into the Yankee pinstripes, but moving him within the AL East to the Rays seems unrealistic. The Sox probably also wouldn’t be too keen to further strengthen the Astros‘ juggernaut lineup, though Houston is already facing something of a luxury tax crunch with its own crop of star players. The Indians have taken steps to cut back spending over the last year and can quite likely be ruled out of a Betts pursuit, as much as Cleveland is still trying to keep its contention window open for as long as possible.
While neither the Twins or Athletics are big spenders, it’s possible either team could see a Betts trade as a unique opportunity that merits a one-year payroll spike. Trading for Betts could be seen as a souped-up version of Minnesota’s strategy from the 2018-19 offseason, which making short-term acquisitions in lieu of major financial commitments. Acquiring Betts would cost more than just money, of course, and it remains to be seen if the Twins or A’s would be open to giving up the minor leaguers necessary to pry him away from the Red Sox.
Makes Some Sense
I put both the Nationals and Cardinals leaning closer to the “probably not” category, though trading for Betts would be an eye-popping way for either team to reload if Anthony Rendon or Marcell Ozuna was lost in free agency. Trading for Betts could be seen as a one-year stopgap for teams that are strongly trying to contend in 2020, and the Nats or Cards could then let him walk in free agency and pursue a longer-term star in the 2020-21 offseason (a pursuit that would likely include an attempt to re-sign Betts). It’s rather doubtful that Washington would be eager to deal from a relatively thin farm system, however, while St. Louis may have used up most of its expendable but MLB-ready pieces in the Goldschmidt trade.
The White Sox flirted with the idea of adding a superstar to the ranks with their pursuit of Harper and Manny Machado last offseason, and while Betts would be a much shorter-term addition, it would certainly announce the end of Chicago’s rebuild in a major fashion. If you’re wondering why the Pale Hose would look to add Betts for 2020 when they’re far more than just one player away from contention, the club has explored such a tactic in the past — the White Sox made an offer to the Orioles about acquiring Manny Machado in the 2017-18 offseason, when Machado was also a year away from free agency.
As incredible as it would be to see Betts and Mike Trout in the same outfield, the Angels probably aren’t willing to move top prospects for one year of Betts, especially given how GM Billy Eppler has worked hard to reload a once-barren farm system. Still, the firing of manager Brad Ausmus hints at an increasing impatience within Angels ownership, and Eppler is also entering the last year of his contract, so I can’t entirely rule the Halos out as a potential dark horse.
The Braves and Dodgers each have the prospect depth to get Boston’s attention, though neither team is likely to swap much of its top talent for just one year of Betts since neither is exactly in outright “win-now” mode. It could be argued that Los Angeles could be a bit closer to this category if the Dodgers fall short of another World Series, though the Dodgers have tended to save their biggest trades for the July 31 deadline (when they have a firmer idea of their needs) rather than the offseason.
The Win-Now Teams
Since Betts is only signed through 2020, his most logical trade matches are the teams who definitely want to contend next season, and could be most open to a bold deal to make a postseason berth happen.
As much as Phillies GM Matt Klentak has insisted that he is looking to build a sustainable contender, he’ll be expected to more immediately start bearing the fruits of the Phils’ rebuild process and the team’s splashy 2018-19 offseason. Philadelphia’s 81-81 record has led to rumblings that manager Gabe Kapler could replaced, and another down year could also put Klentak’s own job security in question, though the general manager is signed through 2022. The Phillies made big trades for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura last winter, though whether they have enough young talent left (or at least enough they’re willing to part with) to acquire Betts remains to be seen. Also, as much as Betts would upgrade the Phils’ middling offensive production, pitching would seem to be Philadelphia’s much more pressing need.
Perhaps no GM is under as much of a microscope as Padres general manager A.J. Preller, as executive chairman Ron Fowler is on record as saying that “heads will roll” in the organization if San Diego faces another “embarrassing” season. Assuming that the Red Sox would be okay with making another big trade with the Padres in the wake of the controversial Drew Pomeranz swap in 2016, a Betts trade would be the kind of major transaction the Padres seemed to be on the verge of making all last offseason, but never completed despite talks about numerous star players with multiple teams. Even if the Padres are more than one player away, the club’s highly-regarded minor league pipeline has so much depth that they could afford to spare a few pieces for Betts and still boast a top-five system. Would a Betts trade be the wisest long-term move? Not really, but after nine straight losing seasons, some type of step towards competitive baseball is definitely needed.
The Reds are a club in more pressing need of lineup help, and since president of baseball operations Dick Williams has set the playoffs as a firm goal for 2020, Betts could very well be a target. Betts’ salary wouldn’t be as big an issue as it would seem for a smaller-market team since the Reds are also planning to spend more. Though Williams has also hinted that the Reds are more apt to explore free agency rather than trades, these plans for an aggressive winter make Cincinnati seem like a solid bet to at least discuss a trade with the Red Sox.
The Mets further thinned out an already shallow farm system in their July trade for Marcus Stroman, and Betts’ salary could prove problematic for a team that has never been too eager to spend despite operating in the New York market. That said, the Mets are firmly planning to contend next year, and GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already shown a penchant for headline-making trades in his first season on the job. Betts would be such a clear and obvious solution to the Mets’ longstanding center field problem that, while it’s not exactly a “one player away” scenario for a team with so many bullpen questions, putting Betts alongside the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis makes for an awfully scary lineup.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Red Sox Will Not Retain Assistant Hitting Coach Andy Barkett
The Red Sox have decided not to bring back assistant hitting coach Andy Barkett, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported. The 46-year-old had been in the role for two seasons.
Further coaching decisions aren’t yet known, though Speier notes that head hitting coach Tim Hyers is expected to return in the same capacity. While Barkett is said to have been valued as a communicator, Speier suggests that an analytical approach may be preferred in the role.
Red Sox CEO On Betts, JDM, Luxury Tax
Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy met with the media for a postmortem on the 2019 season Monday. At a time when the future of superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez is uncertain — Betts is a free agent after 2020 who has repeatedly voiced a desire to test the open market, while Martinez can opt out of the final three seasons of his contract next month — Kennedy acknowledged that there “is a way” to keep both Betts and Martinez on the roster but added that doing so “will be difficult” (Twitter links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).
Such comments only figure to fuel speculation that Betts could be made available in a what would be a blockbuster trade this winter, although the Sox have given no firm indication that he’ll be shopped. Betts earned $20MM this season in just his second trip through the arbitration process, and it’s likely that his salary will jump into the $30MM range next year. Betts didn’t replicate last year’s MVP production nevertheless put together yet another brilliant all-around season. In 706 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old batted .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 40 doubles, five triples and 16 stolen bases. He posted flat-out elite defensive marks, per virtually every metric, for the fourth consecutive season, as well: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, +7 Outs Above Average.
As for Martinez, he’s signed for another three years at a total of $62.5MM. He’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal this offseason, meaning he’d need “only” to top a three-year, $60MM commitment in free agency in order to come out ahead. That’s not a given, as he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer and face some questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) when negotiating with National League clubs. But, asked just last night about sticking in Boston or searching for what would perhaps be his fifth team in five seasons, Martinez replied that he “kind of like[s]” moving around and wouldn’t mind doing so again if need be.
Payroll became an issue with the Red Sox last year when the team was quite clearly doing everything in its power to avoid crossing the third and final luxury tax threshold in free agency. Boston did nothing to address its bullpen outside of some low-profile rolls of the dice, and the team’s lack of bullpen depth proved costly in the long run. Still, significant additions would’ve come with a 75 percent dollar-for-dollar luxury hit, and the Boston ownership group demonstrated that even an organization with that level of deep pockets has its limits.
The Red Sox currently have “only” about $151MM counting against their luxury tax bill in 2020. That’s well south of the $208MM cutoff for the baseline luxury threshold, but that $151MM projection only includes currently guaranteed contracts. In other words, it doesn’t yet factor in arbitration raises for players whose salaries have yet to be determined. Not only will Betts be in line for an enormous raise on this year’s $20MM salary, but the Red Sox will also need to negotiate raises for Eduardo Rodriguez ($4.325MM in 2019), Brandon Workman ($1.15MM), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM), Sandy Leon ($2.475MM), Steven Wright ($1.375MM), Matt Barnes ($1.6MM), Heath Hembree ($1.3125MM) and Andrew Benintendi ($717K). Obviously, some of those players could be traded or non-tendered, thus eliminating the need to worry about potential raises.
One of the biggest questions facing ownership is whether the team is comfortable paying the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season. The number of successive seasons is important, because penalties escalate with each consecutive year above the line. As a third-time offender, the Red Sox would be subject to a 50 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over $208MM. They were taxed at a 30 percent rate in 2019 and 20 percent in 2018.
Kennedy plainly stated today that dropping beneath the luxury tax base of $208MM is a “goal but not a mandate” (Twitter link via Speier). The Red Sox, of course, are in the process of seeking out a new leader for their baseball operations department after firing Dave Dombrowski earlier this month, but the quartet that is heading up baseball ops an on interim basis — assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreria — have discussed scenarios in which they’d exceed the luxury tax in early discussions surrounding the team’s offseason approach and 2020 plans.
Obviously, the health and well-being of the team’s top two starting pitchers will be paramount not only when forecasting the team’s 2020 playoff chances but also in determining what types of additions need to be made over the winter. To that end, O’Halloran informed reporters today that the club anticipates both Chris Sale and David Price will be ready for Spring Training. If so, they’d return to join right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the aforementioned Rodriguez. Complicating matters for the Sox is that each of Sale, Price and Eovaldi delivered mixed results, at best, throughout injury-shortened seasons and now represent question marks more than sure things. Not only will the team need to foster some additional depth, but adding a reliable source of innings to help round out the rotation seems likely to be a goal.
If the Sox do indeed aspire to dip back below the tax line, then there could be a wide-ranging series of changes to the roster this winter. However, nothing from today’s press conference seems to suggest that any sort of rebuild is in the offing. O’Halloran noted that while resetting the luxury line at some point would obviously be beneficial, the club’s goal is to build a championship-caliber roster (Twitter link).