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Orioles Designate Lewin Díaz For Assignment

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The Orioles have announced their deal with reliever Mychal Givens, making it official. In a corresponding move, first baseman Lewin Díaz has been designated for assignment.

Díaz, 26, was originally signed by the Twins and was highly-touted as a prospect due to his power bat and strong first base defense. Baseball America ranked him one of the top 30 Minnesota farmhands in four straight seasons from 2015 to 2018. The Twins flipped him to the Marlins in a 2019 trade that sent Sergio Romo and Chris Vallimont the other way.

Díaz has spent the past few seasons in the Marlins’ system, hitting well in the upper levels of the minors but struggling in the majors. Over the past three MLB seasons, he’s made 343 plate appearances but has a paltry .181/.227/.340 batting line to show for it. In Triple-A over the past two seasons, however, he’s hit 39 home runs in 680 plate appearances and has a much more palatable .250/.325/.504 line. That production was 15% better than league average, as evidenced by his 115 wRC+.

On the defensive side of things, his big league numbers are much more positive. He always was graded well for his glove work as a prospect and that seems to be holding true as he’s reached the majors. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a +16 grade so far, with Ultimate Zone Rating coming in at 3.4 and Outs Above Average at +9.

That work in the field gives Díaz a solid floor as a glove-first option, with his strong offense in the minors giving some hope that he could develop into a two-way contributor. He’s now out of options but is still young and has just over a year of MLB service time. There’s enough intrigue in his profile to attract clubs around the league. The Marlins designated him for assignment in November but he has since landed with the Pirates and Orioles on waiver claims. The O’s will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

Orioles Sign Mychal Givens To One-Year Deal

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Dec. 21: The Orioles officially announced the deal today.

Dec. 19 6:22pm: Feinsand reports the specifics of the mutual option (on Twitter): Givens receives a $3MM salary in 2023. The option price is valued at $6MM. If Givens declines his end of next year’s option, he’d receive a $1MM buyout. If he triggers the option but the Orioles decline their end, he’d pick up a $2MM buyout.

6:08pm: The deal contains a mutual option for the 2024 campaign, report Dan Connolly and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link).

5:50pm: It will be a one-year deal for Givens with a $5MM guarantee, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

5:40pm: The Orioles and reliever Mychal Givens are in agreement on a contract, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The terms of the deal, which is pending a physical, are not yet known. The club’s 40-man roster is full, meaning a corresponding move will be required once the deal is official. Givens is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Givens, 33 in May, returns to his original organization, as the O’s drafted him back in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors and debuted with them in 2015, establishing himself as a solid MLB reliever in the years to come. In each of the three seasons from 2016 to 2018, he made at least 66 appearances for Baltimore, throwing at least 74 2/3 innings and never posting an ERA higher than 3.99. In 2019, he took a noticeable step back, posting a 4.57 ERA, though it’s worth pointing out that was the season of the “juiced balls” and his 22.8% home run per fly ball rate was almost double his career rate of 12.1%.

In the three seasons since, Givens has made that 2019 showing look more and more like an outlier. He’s bounced to the Rockies, Reds, Cubs and Mets in that time, posting a 3.41 ERA over that three-year period. For his career as a whole, Givens has a 3.40 ERA over 419 appearances, with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate.

The club has some exciting young pitchers in their bullpen, such as Félix Bautista, Dillon Tate and Cionel Pérez, but Givens will give them an experienced option. If the club is in contention down the stretch, he can play a key role for them, but he could also turn into deadline fodder otherwise. That would be nothing new for Givens, as he’s been traded near the deadline in each of the past three years.

Givens reached free agency for the first time after 2021 and signed with the Cubs for 2022. It was a one-year deal with a mutual option, with Givens making $3.5MM in salary and a $1.5MM buyout on the option, amounting to a $5MM guarantee but with $1.25MM available in bonuses as well. He’ll land a matching deal this time around.

The Orioles have given out one-year deals to Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier already this offseason, adding some veteran presence around their young core. The O’s had just $60MM committed to their 2023 payroll thus far, per Roster Resource, and this move pushes them up around $64MM. The club’s ledger for 2024 remains completely blank, aside from the buyout figures attached to Givens’ mutual option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Unlikely To Sign Trey Mancini

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As free agents are coming off the board, former Oriole Trey Mancini is one of the few players left on the open market that’s a viable everyday contributor. However, it doesn’t seem like a return to Baltimore is in the cards, according to report from Dan Connolly of The Athletic. He says that the club made some initial contact with him but that little progress was made.

Mancini has been with the Orioles for much of his career thus far, having been drafted by them in 2013 and sticking with the club until a deadline trade to the Astros in 2022. He debuted in 2016 but cemented himself as an everyday player at a time when the club’s fans had little to get excited about. From 2017 to 2021, the Orioles finished last in the American League East in all four full seasons and finished fourth in the shortened 2020 campaign. But in the first three of those years, Mancini hit at least 24 home runs and hit a combined .275/.334/.480 for a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% better than league average over that stretch.

A battle with colon cancer wiped out his 2020 season, but Mancini provided a feel-good story in 2021, returning to play 147 games and hit another 21 home runs. He finished that season with a batting line of .255/.326/.432, 105 wRC+. He got out to a strong start in 2022, hitting .268/.347/.404 for a wRC+ of 116. He was then flipped to the Astros at the deadline and wilted down the stretch. He hit just .176/.258/.364 as an Astro in the regular season, and followed that up with a dreary .048/.125/.048 line over 24 postseason plate appearances. That wasn’t the best way for Mancini to enter free agency for the first time, but his larger track record is still solid. He has a career wRC+ of 111 and the ability to play above-average first base defense, in addition to the occasional trip to an outfield corner.

Though many fans in Baltimore would surely be excited by Mancini’s return, there are reasons for the club to not have too much interest. They already have a right-handed hitting first baseman in Ryan Mountcastle, who still is under club control for another four years. The roster is also crowded elsewhere, which likely means the club wants to keep the designated hitter slot open to be used based on how other situations play out. Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, Gunnar Henderson, Ramón Urías and Adam Frazier are lined up to handle the infield positions in some combination, with Lewin Díaz and Terrin Vavra candidates for bench jobs. They also have infield prospects on the way in the form of Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby. In the outfield, they have Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Kyle Stowers, with prospect Colton Cowser likely to debut at some point in 2023. Given all of those young options, it would be a bit tough to slot Mancini into the picture without blocking some of their up-and-coming players.

If he’s not back to Baltimore, then Mancini will have to look for his next opportunity elsewhere. He was connected to the Cubs about two weeks ago, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reiterating that connection earlier today. For the Cubs or any other club looking for first base upgrades, José Abreu, Josh Bell and Anthony Rizzo are off the board, but Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Luke Voit and others are still available.

Orioles Have Received Trade Interest In Jorge Mateo

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The Orioles are drawing interest from other clubs in shortstop Jorge Mateo, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The specific teams in contact with Baltimore aren’t clear, although he’s a natural fallback target for clubs that haven’t addressed the position via free agency.

A former top prospect in the Yankees and Oakland farm systems, Mateo at times can be undone by an overaggressive approach at the plate. He’s walked in fewer than 5% of his MLB plate appearances while striking out nearly 28% of the time, leading to a dismal .271 career on-base percentage. Things were even more extreme this past season, as his .267 OBP topped only that of Jonathan Schoop and Cody Bellinger among hitters with 500+ plate appearances.

While Mateo doesn’t have an especially well-rounded skillset, he tapped into the physical gifts that made him a high-end prospect this year. After bouncing from the A’s to the Padres, the 27-year-old landed in Baltimore late in 2021 via waiver claim. He got his first everyday run at the major league level this past season. Mateo’s plate discipline profile was ghastly, but he demonstrated his top-tier athleticism. He stole an AL-best 35 bases in 44 attempts, showcasing the speed that garnered top-of-the-scale grades when he was a prospect.

As Rosenthal points out, that kind of athleticism could be particularly appealing in light of the rules changes going into effect for the 2023 season. MLB is instituting a limit on the number of times a pitcher can step off the mound in a plate appearance and enlarging the bases, both of which should at least moderately incentivize base-stealing.

The league is also instituting limitations on defensive shifting, requiring clubs to keep two infielders on either side of the second base bag and four players on the infield dirt. Teams could place more of a premium on athletic defenders as a result, since it’ll be more difficult to compensate for players who have below-average range via strategic positioning.

Mateo thrived defensively this year, posting top-tier marks in over 1250 innings at shortstop. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as 14 runs above average at the position, the third-highest mark in MLB. Statcast estimated Mateo at eight runs above par, tying him for fourth among shortstops. He showcased both high-end range and above-average arm strength and looks to have emerged as a plus defender.

Maintaining that kind of defensive production will be critical for Mateo unless he takes a significant step forward in his offensive development. This year’s .211/.267/.379 line was 18 percentage points worse than average, by measure of wRC+. His baserunning means he’s not completely a glove-only player, but he’ll need to sustain high-end defensive marks to remain valuable with such tepid output at the plate. That Mateo is attracting interest from other teams in spite of his offense is a testament both to his secondary skills and the scarcity of alternatives.

The star-studded free agent shortstop class was one of the stories of the offseason. All four of the top players — Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson — ended up changing teams. That somewhat surprising amount of shuffling leads to the Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox and Braves having to identify new solutions to replace their outgoing stars.

All four clubs have some internal possibilities, but none are ideal situations. Minnesota acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds as a stopgap option, while Royce Lewis is expected back midseason after his tearing the ACL in his right knee for a second straight year. The Dodgers can move Gavin Lux from second base to shortstop while relying on some combination of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and prospects like Jacob Amaya or Miguel Vargas at the keystone. Lux is a former top prospect coming off a productive .276/.346/.399 showing, but his below-average arm strength could be a concern on the left side of the infield.

Boston has a somewhat similar situation, with Trevor Story currently likely to move back to shortstop from second base. The longtime Rockie was a plus defender at shortstop for a while, but he also has a below-average arm at this stage of his career. The Sox don’t have as strong a collection of internal second base options as L.A. does, with Christian Arroyo looking to be the favorite for playing time if Enrique Hernández stays in center field. The Braves have utilityman Orlando Arcia and rookie Vaughn Grissom — who has played 63 career games above High-A and comes with defensive question marks from prospect evaluators — as their internal candidates.

It’s sensible all four teams could explore the market for shortstop help, and clubs like the Angels and Diamondbacks could check in as well. Free agency is largely picked through at this point, with Elvis Andrus standing out as the top option remaining. José Iglesias offers a high-contact depth option and Andrelton Simmons is still an excellent defender, but neither profiles as a regular for a hopeful contender.

Trade possibilities also seems sparse. The Guardians could perhaps listen to offers on Amed Rosario for his final season of arbitration control. There’s been no indication this offseason they’re planning to do so, however. The Brewers are reportedly informing teams they’re not dealing Willy Adames; the same is true of the White Sox with Tim Anderson. Players like Nick Ahmed or Nicky Lopez could be dealt, but they’re defense-only types who’d be below-average everyday players for a win-now team.

Mateo is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.8MM salary during his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process twice more before hitting the open market after the 2025 campaign. That extended window of control means the Orioles don’t have to deal him, and there’s no indication they’re actively shopping him. Baltimore’s rebuild is in the rearview mirror, and Mateo’s modest arbitration salary isn’t placing any financial pressure on the organization.

There’s logic for general manager Mike Elias and his staff to entertain trade offers, though, particularly if they’re wary of Mateo’s ability to maintain his 2022 pace with the glove. The lack of other options for teams desperate for shortstop help could increase their sense of urgency to pursue him, while Baltimore has a number of prospects they hope will eventually unseat him as the franchise shortstop.

Gunnar Henderson debuted at the end of the season, primarily working at third base in deference to Mateo. The O’s could roll with a left side infield of Mateo and Henderson while having Ramón Urías and the recently-signed Adam Frazier share reps at second base. Baltimore has highly-regarded prospects Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz just behind that group, with both players coming off quality seasons for Triple-A Norfolk. Westburg and Ortiz — the latter of whom is already on the 40-man roster — could each find themselves in the majors fairly early in the 2023 campaign, and both are regarded by various prospect evaluators as potential everyday shortstops.

Orioles Sign Three Pitchers To Minor League Deals

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The Orioles announced the signing of three right-handers — Eduard Bazardo, Kyle Dowdy and Wandisson Charles — to minor league contracts this evening. All three are relievers who’ll add to Baltimore’s bullpen depth without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster.

Bazardo has spent his entire career in the AL East. A former international signee of the Red Sox, he played parts of seven seasons in the Boston system. The Venezuela native has primarily pitched at Triple-A Worcester over the last two years, tallying 68 2/3 innings of 4.33 ERA ball. Bazardo has fanned an average 23.1% of opposing hitters at that level against a solid 7.7% walk rate, securing fairly brief looks in the majors in each of the past two seasons.

The 27-year-old tallied 19 1/3 MLB innings over 14 appearances, allowing five runs. That’s a strong mark but wasn’t supported by a fairly modest 14:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Boston ran Bazardo through outright waivers in each of the last two years and he elected minor league free agency after going unclaimed in October. He averaged 94 MPH on his fastball and generated a decent number of whiffs on his low-80’s breaking ball in his limited big league look.

Dowdy pitched 22 1/3 innings as a Rule 5 draftee for the Rangers back in 2019, walking more batters than he struck out while posting a 7.25 ERA. Returned to the Cleveland system midseason, he spent the next couple years in the minor leagues. Dowdy returned to the bigs for a very brief stint with the Reds this September, making two appearances. He worked 6 1/3 scoreless innings for Cincinnati, albeit with just three strikeouts and walks apiece. Cincinnati non-tendered him at the end of the year to reallocate his spot on the 40-man roster to prospects they didn’t want to lose in the Rule 5 draft.

A University of Houston product, Dowdy turns 30 in February. He spent most of this year with the Reds highest affiliate in Louisville, pitching to a 3.96 ERA across 52 1/3 frames. Dowdy punched out 24% of opponents but issued walks at a significant 13.3% clip. Strike-throwing has been a consistent issue throughout his career, as he’s walked 12.7% of batters faced over four Triple-A seasons. He averaged a bit north of 96 MPH on his heater during his limited MLB look with Cincinnati.

Charles, 26, has yet to reach the majors. He secured a spot on the A’s 40-man roster over the 2020-21 offseason, which he held until this August. Oakland designated him for assignment and ran him through waivers amidst a grisly 2022 showing at Double-A Midland, and he reached free agency at season’s end. The native of the Dominican Republic posted an 11.43 ERA over 37 innings for the RockHounds, walking an untenable 18.8% of opponents with a 16.8% strikeout rate. The Orioles will hope a change of scenery can get him back on track. Prior to this year, Charles had garnered modest praise from prospect evaluators for a fastball that reaches the upper-90s.

Orioles, Angels, Rangers Have Shown Interest In Rich Hill

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12:10pm: Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Angels and Rangers have also shown interest in Hill this off-season. Texas has been active in the starting pitcher market already, landing Jacob deGrom on a five-year, $185MM deal, Andrew Heaney on a two-year, $25MM deal, bringing back Martin Perez via the qualifying offer and trading for Jake Odorizzi. With that quartet joining Jon Gray, there’s not an obvious rotation fit for Hill there, but it’s entirely possible their interest in the veteran came prior to their free agent signings.

The Angels have added Tyler Anderson on a three-year, $39MM deal to a rotation led by Shohei Ohtani. Left-handers Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez round out a typical five-man rotation, and all three have shown plenty of promise. Yet the Angels have tended to go with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload, and while they’ve said they’ll be a bit more aggressive with Ohtani’s workload in 2023, adding a veteran arm certainly makes sense for the Halos.

8:34am: The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Rich Hill, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. The team has already signed right-hander Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal this off-season, but has long been rumored to be in the market for multiple veteran starters to bolster their rotation.

Hill, 42, played out last season on a one-year, $5MM (with $3MM more in incentives available) deal with the Red Sox – the seventh contract the Massachusetts local had signed with the team. The left-hander made 26 starts, tossing 124 1/3 innings of 4.27 ERA ball. He did miss some time with a left knee strain, but on the whole kept his strikeout and walk rates in line with a year earlier (below average strikeout rate, above average walk rate). A year prior, Hill threw 154 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball between time with the Rays and Mets, so while there’s a natural durability risk with a 42-year-old pitcher, Hill has made 57 starts over the past two seasons.

The veteran’s career has been something of a journey, spanning 18 years and 11 different teams. He originally debuted with the Cubs back in 2005, and spent the next ten seasons moving around the big leagues a bit, initially working as a starter before moving to the bullpen. A four-start, 1.55 ERA stint with the Red Sox in late in 2015 propelled a late-career resurgence for Hill, and he turned that into a one-year deal to pitch out of Oakland’s rotation.

Hill would turn in 14 starts of 2.25 ERA ball for the A’s in 2016, striking out batters at a 28.9% clip. He’d continue his front-of-the-rotation form even after a trade to the Dodgers, working to a 1.83 ERA over six starts down the stretch in LA. With a strong full season of work under his belt, LA opted to bring Hill back on a three-year, $48MM deal starting in 2017. It’d prove a wise move, as Hill would wind up making 68 starts of 3.16 ERA during his time with the Dodgers.

Things have dropped off a little in recent years for Hill, with his strikeout rate down almost 10% from 2019. Nonetheless, he still remains a solid back-of-the-rotation veteran arm. That holds plenty of appeal for the Orioles, who came into the off-season looking for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only pitcher to top 23 starts in 2022, but was bought out of an $11MM option and is a free agent.

As things stand, the Orioles’ rotation currently projects to include Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez. Outside of Gibson, Wells’ two years of service time makes him the most senior in that group, while Rodriguez – as good as he projects to be – is yet to pitch in the big leagues, so the addition of a veteran arm certainly makes sense.

Baltimore is one of the 11 teams Hill has appeared for in the past, making 13 starts for the team back in 2009. That particular stint didn’t go so well, as Hill worked to a 7.80 ERA across 57 2/3 innings and wouldn’t make another big league start until turning his career around in Boston in 2015.

Hill was earlier linked to a return to Boston this winter, as he described a “mutual interest” between the two sides in working on an eighth contract there. This interest from Baltimore presents as Hill’s first reported alternative this winter.

Orioles Sign Adam Frazier To One-Year Deal

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The Orioles and infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier are in agreement on a one-year, $8MM contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The O’s subsequently announced the signing.

It’s a belated birthday present for Frazier, who turned 31 years old yesterday. The veteran spent the first five years of his career with the Pirates but has bounced to the Padres and Mariners over the past couple of seasons. One of his most attractive traits is his defensive versatility, as he’s played all three outfield positions as well as the three infield positions to the left of first base.

Though he might be a bit stretched at shortstop or in center, he generally gets solid grades for his work at the corners and at second. All three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average give him positive numbers for his career at second and in left, while DRS and UZR also favor his work in right field. At second base, where he’s spent the vast majority of his time, he’s tallied 15 DRS, 1.5 from UZR and 11 OAA.

Offensively, his track record is a bit inconsistent. In his five seasons with Pittsburgh from 2016 to 2020, he was above-average in two of them, by measure of wRC+. In another two seasons, his 97 wRC+ was just below the 100 average. In the shortened 2020 season, he was down to 79. At the end of those five campaigns, his batting line was .273/.336/.413, amounting to a wRC+ of 99, just a hair under league average. Still, he was able to produce 6.8 wins above replacement due to his defensive contributions, according to FanGraphs.

In 2021, he bounced back by hitting .324/.388/.448 in 98 games with the Bucs, amounting to a wRC+ of 127. The Pirates flipped him to the Padres at the deadline but he wilted down the stretch. He hit .267/.327/.335 with San Diego for a wRC+ of 86. The Friars then traded him to the Mariners prior to 2022, but his struggles continued. As a Mariner, he hit .238/.301/.311 for a wRC+ of 81.

Despite that inconsistent track record at the plate, Frazier is a solid fit for a Baltimore team that is still trying to chart its path forward. They have a number of infielders and outfielders who are still trying to get accustomed to the major leagues or have not yet made it to the show. Jorge Mateo had a solid defensive season at shortstop but didn’t hit much and struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances. Gunnar Henderson had a solid debut in 2022 and seems to be ticketed for third base duty, though he’s also played second and shortstop. Ramón Urías had also been a solid contributor, even winning a Gold Glove at third base this year, though Henderson’s arrival seems to have bumped him into a utility role. Terrin Vavra could also be in the mix for a bench/utility job. Infield prospects like Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo could get to the big leagues in 2023 and further crowd the picture.

The O’s could conceivably platoon the left-handed hitting Frazier with the right-handed Urías at second base, though both players could also move to other positions if Baltimore wants to give some extended playing time to a young prospect. If Frazier’s bat bounces back or he’s simply getting squeezed out by other players, they could trade him at the deadline given his one-year deal.

The Orioles took a huge step forward in 2022, winning 83 games after five straight dismal seasons. Nonetheless, it seems like 2023 will be another evaluation season, as the club still has many young prospects who need to either make their major league debuts or continue acclimating to the big leagues. Frazier has the ability to slot in wherever he’s needed, giving the club a reliable defender who also has a chance to contribute with the bat. Whether the club can truly compete in 2023 or not, Frazier is likely to be a serviceable addition.

This is the second signing of the offseason for the O’s, as they also signed Kyle Gibson for a one-year, $10MM deal. Since both are one-year contracts, the club continues to have no commitments on the books for 2024, as they have completely avoided multi-year deals in recent years. The last time they signed a free agent to a deal longer than a single season was with Alex Cobb back in 2018. Roster Resource calculates their payroll as now just under $60MM, which is already a sizeable increase over last year’s $44MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Interested In Michael Wacha

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The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Michael Wacha, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re the first team of the offseason known to be checking in on the right-hander, who’s coming off a decent season with the division-rival Red Sox.

Wacha, 31, inked a one-year, $7MM deal with Boston last offseason. He’d posted a 5.05 ERA in 124 2/3 innings with the Rays the year before and hadn’t found much success keeping runs off the board since 2018. The Red Sox nevertheless took on a flier on a bounceback, placing their faith in a fastball that sat around 94 MPH and a swinging strike rate that had been north of 11% in each of the preceding two seasons.

The former first-round pick rewarded them with his most successful year in a while. Wacha made 23 starts and tallied 127 1/3 innings, pitching to a quality 3.32 ERA. He landed on the injured list twice — first with a left intercostal strain, then with inflammation in his throwing shoulder — but generally kept runs off the board when healthy. Wacha allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his outings while holding opponents to a .233/.283/.410 line in 515 plate appearances.

Strong control helped him keep runners off base, as he walked only 6% of opponents. Wacha has established himself as a quality strike-thrower, but there also seems to have been a decent amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit just .260 on their balls in play against him, the lowest BABIP he’d allowed in five years. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball percentage were each slightly lower than the league average.

The Texas A&M product also saw minor dips in his swinging strike number and velocity. He generated whiffs on 9.5% of his pitches, below his 2020-21 levels. Wacha’s average fastball speed also lost a tick, dipping from 93.8 MPH in 2021 to an even 93 MPH this year. ERA estimators like FIP (4.14) and SIERA (4.07) each pegged his true talent a bit north of 4.00 — still useful production, but not quite as impressive as his actual ERA might suggest.

Even if Wacha’s run prevention regresses somewhat, he’s a sensible target for clubs seeking rotation help. Wacha has ten seasons of MLB experience under his belt, and he carries a 4.05 ERA in over 1100 career innings. Other than a brief spike in walks towards the end of his time in St. Louis, he’s shown consistently plus control. That kind of reliability makes him a fine fit at the back half of a contending club’s rotation.

The Orioles entered the offseason searching for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only Baltimore pitcher to top 23 starts this past season, and the O’s bought out an $11MM club option at year’s end to send him to the open market. Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells and Spenser Watkins all posted serviceable or better ERA’s over 15-plus starts, but Voth was the only one with a strikeout rate around league average. Kyle Bradish had a decent strikeout rate but an ERA pushing 5.00. Mike Baumann and DL Hall joined Bradish in seeing some MLB action as rookies, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez may well have debuted this year if not for a lat injury.

The O’s had a number of internal options to compete for jobs on Brandon Hyde’s starting staff, but everyone in the mix had either limited or no track record of MLB success. Baltimore thus brought in Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal last month to add some veteran stability. They’re still expected to add another starter, and Wacha’s one of the remaining options in a free agent class that’s rapidly thinning. MLBTR predicted Wacha for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason. He’s one of five unsigned starting pitchers who’d secured a spot on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents, alongside Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski.

Latest On Orioles’ Offseason Plans

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The Orioles have been linked to a number of free agents this winter, but so far their sole big league addition has been Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal. It seems likely there will be more moves to come for Baltimore as they look to supplement a young core that is starting to look like a contender, but Dan Connolly of The Athletic suggests it’s unlikely they’ll be handing out any long-term deals this winter. Connolly says the Orioles may look to stick more in the 2-3 year term, and while that may rule them out of a big splash, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays information from general manager Mike Elias the team has made multi-year offers to free agent pitchers.

The Orioles did have reported interest in Jameson Taillon before he signed a four-year, $68MM deal with the Cubs, while they’ve also been reportedly interested in top remaining free agent starter Carlos Rodon, as well as Noah Syndergaard. Rodon looks set to a command five or six year deal, which looks to be outside Baltimore’s comfort levels, but it’s certainly possible to see them pursuing someone like Syndergaard on a shorter-term, but still multi-year pact. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $36MM deal for him, while the likes of Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha were both predicted to receive two-year deals which could fit in to Baltimore’s plan.

On the other side of the ball, it seems Elias is casting a wide net as he searches for upgrades. Jake Rill of MLB.com relays comments from Elias citing first base, designated hitter, the corner outfield and possibly second base as positions where the Orioles could have vacant playing time.

When asked about the prospect of adding left-handed hitters, Elias has this to say: “We are in talks with players that would be in the starting nine on Opening Day, or however you want to put it. I would view the probable additions at this point that we’re talking to and see out there as guys that will come in and kind of be on the same level as our other starters.”

The team did just add left-handed hitting outfielders Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero on minor league deals, and they could well compete for a spot on the big league roster during spring training. Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander currently project as the starting outfield, with Ryan McKenna on the bench. They also just claimed lefty hitting first baseman Lewin Diaz from the Pirates, so the O’s have not been shy in adding left-handed hitters so far.

While Mazara, Cordero and Diaz are all candidates to fill spots on the bench, it seems unlikely any of them would be in the starting nine on opening day if everyone is healthy. So if the Orioles may well seek further left-handed options and are looking to keep things to shorter-term deals, the likes of Joey Gallo, Dominic Smith or Brandon Belt could appeal.

As Kubatko tweets, a starter and a left handed bat appear the top priorities for the Orioles, but the team would also like to add a veteran reliever, as well as a backup catcher on a major league deal. Dillon Tate is currently the veteran in the Orioles’ bullpen with just over three years of service time, so it makes sense that they’d look for a more experienced arm to add to that group. On the catching front, Adley Rutschman is the only backstop on the 40-man roster.

So where does this leave Baltimore as far as payroll is concerned? Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com relays that Elias says payroll is expected to increase steadily over the coming seasons. That would be appear to be in line with the sort of additions the Orioles are looking to make over the coming months. Instead of making a big splash and committing long term dollars to a single player, the team looks likely to shop around for incremental additions to support their young core.

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

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