- In regards to the bench coach role, the Mets are now aiming towards hiring “a younger, analytics-driven individual,” Thosar reports. It will make for an interesting complement to veteran manager Buck Showalter, providing something of an old school/new school approach between Showalter and his next chief lieutenant. Reds game planning/outfield coach Jeff Pickler is one of the names under consideration for the Mets’ bench coach job, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).
- Reds scout Bruce Manno is retiring after close to 45 years in pro baseball, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). Manno has been a familiar face in many front offices over the years, working with the Blue Jays, Brewers, Orioles, Cardinals, Braves, and Reds in various capacities, including working as the Cards’ director of player development during the club’s 2006 World Series season. Manno worked as an assistant GM with both the Brewers (1987-94) and Braves (2007-14), and his time in Atlanta helped pave the way towards their 2021 title. Freddie Freeman was drafted, developed, and extended during Manno’s tenure, and Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies joined the organization on their initial amateur contracts. (Manno discussed the Acuna/Albies deals with David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution back in 2018, with Manno praising the work of then-director of international scouting Johnny Almarez). We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Manno on a fine career, and we wish him the best in his retirement.
Reds Rumors
NL Notes: Knebel, Phillies, Mets Coaches, Reds
In a piece for the The Athletic, Matt Gelb recaps the frantic lead-up to the Phillies’ signing of right-handed reliever Corey Knebel, which included an unfortunately timed trip to Mexico and a number of insightful quotes from Knebel himself. One particular quote of note is that Knebel and Philadelphia “entertained” a two-year contract before ultimately settling on a one-year, $10MM guarantee.
While Knebel is the presumptive closer for his new club at this time, neither he nor president Dave Dombrowski have confirmed as such. Accordingly, Knebel says he’s using the personal risk of a one-year contract as motivation to regain the form that made him one of the game’s most dominant arms from 2017-2018. As the “$10MM” portion of his latest contract indicates, however, Knebel may not need much more motivation to regain elite status at the back of a pen. After all, a newfound reliance on his curveball led to the right-hander spinning 25 plus innings of 2.45 ERA ball with the Dodgers last season.
While health and its corresponding impact on effectiveness is always a question with pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery, the Phillies front office was surely pleased by Knebel demonstrating some of the best control he’s had in his career. Further dampening health concerns were Knebel’s strikeout abilities, which were down during the season from his own lofty 2017-2018 heights, but were still solidly above average and exploded in the playoffs— in 5+ innings the right-hander struck out 11 batters against just one walk.
In other news out of the National League…
- The Mets have been one of baseball’s busiest teams during the lockout thus far, and have been the runaway winner in activity over the past 48 hours. The team already reeled in its biggest coaching fish of the offseason back in December when they hired Buck Showalter, but they have since announced plans to hire a number of other coaches around him. Among the recent coaches set to join the Mets coaching staff are first base coach Wayne Kirby, third base coach Joey Cora, and hitting coach Eric Chávez, who was successfully wooed away from the crosstown Yankees. Mike Puma of the New York Post explains (via Twitter) the reason none of these coaching additions have yet been made official. Puma states that every prospective hire is receiving a “very thorough” background check, which is likely delaying an official announcement from the club on this trio of reported coaches. It remains to be seen if this thoroughness is delaying the hire of the team’s alleged high-profile mystery bench coach as well. That the club is being methodical in its search for new club personnel should register as a shock to no one, with several high-profile members enjoying unceremonious ends to their New York tenures in recent years.
- Bob Nightengale reports that the Reds have signed center fielder Lorenzo Cedrola to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. A signee out of Venezuela with some prospect pedigree, Cedrola was traded by Boston to Cincinnati back in 2018 for international bonus pool space. The 23-year-old will now look to continue his work in the Reds farm system, where he’s fresh off his first Triple-A promotion and an overall .315/.354/.458 season. His 10 home runs across 115 games last season easily represent a career high, though Cedrola’s 10 for 18 showing on the basepaths could use some work if he’s to crack the Reds’ uncertain outfield mix in 2022.
Reds Hire Juan Samuel As Minors Hitting Instructor
- The Reds have hired sixteen-year big-league veteran Juan Samuel as a minor league hitting instructor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, though his precise role has not yet been announced. Since retiring, the three-time All-Star has held a number of positions, including as a major league base coach and, briefly, as interim manager of the Orioles following the 2010 mid-season firing of Dave Trembley. In addition to his long and productive playing career, Samuel is remembered as the Mets’ return in the 1989 deal that sent Lenny Dykstra and Roger McDowell, cornerstones of the 1986 World Series champs, to the Phillies.
Reds Sign Ben Lively To Minors Deal
The Reds have signed right-hander Ben Lively to a minor league deal. Lively, who’s seen action in parts of three big-league seasons, returns to the organization that drafted him out of UCF in the fourth round of the 2013 draft before shipping him to the Phillies in exchange for Marlon Byrd following the 2014 season. The deal includes an invitation to spring training.
In limited big-league action with the Phillies and Royals, Lively has posted serviceable numbers, covering 120 innings across 26 appearances (20 starts) with a 4.80 ERA (5.03 FIP). The great majority of those innings came with the Phillies in 2017, when he posted a 4.26 ERA (4.97 FIP) across 15 starts (88 2/3 IP) — good for an almost exactly league-average ERA+ of 101.
Two months after a June 2019 trade to the Diamondbacks 2019 season (for whom he never appeared in a big-league game), Lively crossed the Pacific to pitch for the KBO’s Samsung Lions, for whom he also posted solid-if-unspectacular numbers. In parts of three seasons in South Korea, the righty recorded a 4.14 ERA in 202 1/3 innings across 36 starts before a shoulder injury cut his 2021 season short.
Though only one of what’s likely to be a slew of low-cost arms given a shot to earn a spot on the Reds pitching staff, Lively may well arrive in Arizona with a real chance to crack the Opening Day roster in Cincinnati. Though the club has a strong top-of-the-rotation trio of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle in place at present, GM Nick Krall was reported to have been willing to engage in trade talks on all three ahead of the lockout. It’s unclear which, or how many, of the three will ultimately leave the Queen City, but the club has made no secret of its desire to cut payroll, suggesting that at least one will likely end up on the move.
Still, even in the unlikely event that all three stay in Cincy, there’s likely to be some significant spring competition at the back end of the Reds rotation. Vladimir Gutierrez, who had a solid 22-start debut for the Reds in 2021, likely has the inside track on one job, but the other would likely be open to Lively, fellow minor-league signee Brandon Bailey, and prospects Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Reiver Sanmartin.
Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K
A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.
A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.
That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.
Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41
A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.
Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.
In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.
Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16
Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.
Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10
A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.
Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03
Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.
Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00
Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.
The Reds Have A Eugenio Suarez Problem
Reds GM Nick Krall kicked off the offseason by stating that “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” While subsequent reports have indicated that the Reds aren’t entirely tearing things down, the team has already parted ways with such veterans as Wade Miley and Tucker Barnhart, and combined with last winter’s trade of Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, that marks three notable players given away for virtually nothing in salary-dump fashion.
Much to the dismay of Cincinnati fans, the gradual increase in spending that followed six losing seasons from 2014-19 now appears to be over. That rebuild resulted in winning records in both 2020 and 2021, but only a two-game appearance (without a run scored) in the expanded 2020 postseason to show for the Reds’ efforts. It is safe to say that the pandemic is in large part to blame for ownership’s apparent decision to limit spending, and yet it also can’t be ignored that some of the higher-paid members of the Reds roster have underachieved — a critical setback for any mid-market team.
Case in point, Eugenio Suarez.
The third baseman’s seven-year, $66MM extension in March 2018 was one of the early signposts that the Reds were getting ready to open the pocketbook and start building the core of their next contender. The extension covered Suarez’s three remaining arbitration years and up to five of his free agent years (Cincinnati has a $15MM club option on his services for 2025, with a $2MM buyout).
Suarez earned the extension after posting some solid offensive and defensive numbers over his first three seasons in the Queen City, and the Reds’ decision to lock him up looked even wiser considering how Suarez performed in 2018-19. Over his age 26-27 seasons, Suarez kicked up his production to another level, hitting .277/.362/.550 with 83 home runs over 1268 plate appearances, good for a 132 wRC+ and a 133 OPS+. Suarez received down-ballot MVP attention in both seasons, made the All-Star Game in 2018, and cracked 49 homers in 2019 to tie the second-highest single-season mark in Reds franchise history.
It certainly seemed as if Suarez was set to be one of the cornerstones of a now-loaded Reds lineup that added the likes of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas in the 2019-20 offseason. However, Suarez simply hasn’t been the same since, and there are some unwelcome signs that 2018 and 2019 may represent his peak.
Some red flags even emerged during that 49-homer season. Suarez’s .351 xwOBA was well below his .381 wOBA, and his strikeout rate ballooned to 28.5%, after Suarez struck out at only a 23.8% rate over his first five MLB seasons. As per Statcast, 2019 also marked the lowest line drive (24%) and grounder (36%) rates of Suarez’s career, as he sustained the big increase in his fly-ball rate that began in 2018. Statcast’s “Expected Home Runs” data only covers the last three seasons, so while Suarez’s 2018 numbers can’t be analyzed, the xHR metric indicates that Suarez “should” have hit only 39.1 homers in 2019.
The other glaring trend was Suarez’s evolution into being a dead pull hitter. Since the start of the 2019 season, the right-handed hitting Suarez has hit the ball to left field 50.5% of the time, the fourth-highest pull rate of any qualified hitter in baseball. While teams increased their shift usage against Suarez in 2019, it didn’t hamper his offense too much thanks to that sky-high 29.5% homer rate. In fact, Suarez had a whopping .423 wOBA against the shift in 2019.
The shifts kept coming, however, with teams shifting against Suarez 69.6% of the time in 2020 and 55.2% of the time in 2021. With Suarez’s fly balls leaving the yard at a more moderate rate and his grounders now getting gobbled by opposing defenses, Suarez had only a .221 BABIP in 2020-21, contributing to that big dip in his offensive numbers.
Suarez followed up his big 2019 with almost exactly average (100 OPS+, 101 wRC+) production in 2020, as he batted .202/.312/.470 with 15 homers in 231 PA. After only a .504 OPS over his first 82 PA, Suarez had a .928 OPS in his last 149 trips to the plate, so the thinking was that Suarez might have just had a slow start. The third baseman also underwent surgery to remove some loose cartilage from his right shoulder in January 2020, though Suarez was expected to have been ready to go by sometime in April if the season had started on time.
That shoulder surgery stands out as an obvious demarcation line between Suarez’s peak production and his decline over the last two years. However, given the statistical question marks that began even in 2019, injuries can’t be considered the root cause for Suarez’s struggles. As his rough 2021 season played out, all of the warning signs that stood out in 2019-20 snowballed, resulting in what was essentially a replacement-level season. Baseball Reference gave Suarez a subpar -0.7 bWAR, while Fangraphs’ calculations were only a little more generous, calculating Suarez at 0.6 fWAR.
Suarez batted .198/.286/.428 over 574 plate appearances, hitting 31 home runs but contributing only an 80 OPS+/85 wRC+. His 9.8% walk rate was his worst since the 2016 season, and he had only a .301 wOBA against the shift. Really, considering Suarez had only a .313 wOBA when teams weren’t shifting on him, his pull hitting was less of an issue than the fact that he wasn’t making much hard contact at all. While Suarez still had one of the league’s better barrel rates, his 39.8% hard-hit ball rate was below the league average.
The strikeouts also just kept coming. There has always been a lot of swing-and-miss in Suarez’s game, yet among qualified batters, only Javier Baez and Wil Myers have a higher strikeout rate than Suarez’s 29.1% figure since the start of the 2019 season.
If these problems at the plate weren’t bad enough, Suarez’s defense is now also a question mark, though that could be more due to the Reds’ roster construction. With the team unable to land a shortstop in the 2020-21 offseason, the Reds planned to move Suarez to shortstop last year, thus moving Moustakas into the third base role and breakout rookie Jonathan India getting a shot at the everyday second base job. Suarez began his career as a shortstop and lost 15 pounds last winter in preparation to move back into his old position, and yet the defensive problems that triggered his move to third base in the first place continued.
Pretty much all of Suarez’s time at shortstop came in the season’s first six weeks, as he struggled enough that Cincinnati quickly pivoted away from the experiment. With Moustakas spending a big chunk of the season on the injured list, Suarez was able to move back to third base, with India enjoying a Rookie Of The Year campaign at second base and Kyle Farmer turning in a respectable performance as the regular shortstop.
Heading into 2022, it’s hard to know what to expect from Suarez. If the NL adopts the designated hitter as part of the new collective bargaining agreement, it will alleviate some of the infield logjam that stemmed from the Moustakas signing, but Suarez getting time at DH doesn’t help matters if he still can’t hit. It could be that some mental pressure might be lifted for Suarez if he doesn’t have to worry about a position switch, and yet defensive metrics have illustrated that Suarez has been an average third baseman at best for the last four years.
For a Reds team now looking to trim payroll, Suarez’s $11MM salary in each of the next three seasons (and the $2MM guaranteed via his club option) stands out as an expenditure that the club would probably prefer to not have on the books. Finding a suitor for Suarez in the wake of his 2021 down year won’t be easy, as teams may now see Suarez only as a one-dimensional power bat who doesn’t make much contact, and whose production can be kept in check by the shift.
It’s worth noting that Suarez drew some trade interest last offseason, with the Nationals in particular exploring a deal, though Washington wasn’t open to parting with its top pitching prospects. In hindsight, last winter may have been the Reds’ best opportunity to score a solid trade package in return for Suarez, as he still carried enough long-term value that Cincinnati wouldn’t have moved him in a salary dump.
The equation may have changed now, as the Reds might need to attach a prospect as a sweetener for another club to eat a bigger chunk of Suarez’s salary, or Krall might have to arrange some kind of a trade for another team’s unwanted contract. The Reds could also conceivably try to package Suarez along with one of their better veteran trade chips (i.e. Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray), but giving up one of those pitchers essentially just to get Suarez’s salary moved wouldn’t be an optimal way to maximize return on a top trade asset.
Needless to say, a return to form for Suarez would be an enormous boon for Cincinnati next year, as Suarez would then essentially be replacing Castellanos (who is still a free agent but unlikely to re-sign given his big asking price) as another big bat alongside India, Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker. Since he doesn’t turn 31 until July, Suarez isn’t exactly over the hill, and players have rebounded from far worse declines by making changes to their swing or their approach at the plate. That said, Suarez may need something drastic to counteract the underlying statistical trends of the last three seasons, or else an extension that once looked pretty team-friendly may now be something of an albatross for the Reds going forward.
Reds Rejected Trade Deadline Offers For Prospect Elly De La Cruz
- Reds infield prospect Elly De La Cruz received a lot of trade attention this past summer, The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans writes, but Cincinnati “didn’t want anything to do with moving him.” De La Cruz was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, and after a solid Dominican Summer League showing in 2019, he made a big impression in his first season in the North American minor league system. The 19-year-old hit a combined .296/.336/.538 with eight home runs over 265 plate appearances with the Reds’ rookie ball (55 PA) and A-ball (210 PA) affiliates. Prospect evaluators took note of the breakout, as Baseball America (4th) and MLB Pipeline (8th) now have De La Cruz entrenched in their rankings of Cincinnati’s top prospects. BA’s scouting report notes that “there are few players in the majors or minors with three 70s on their scouting report. De La Cruz is a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus arm and plus-plus raw power.” Defensively, De La Cruz is a good athlete who might be able to remain at shortstop and could have center field potential, though he has thus far played only shortstop, third base, and some second base in his brief pro career.
Reds Sign Jake Bauers To Minor League Deal
The Reds have signed first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. The VC Sports Group client will be in Major League Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. Bauers was eligible to sign a minor league deal even during the lockout due to the fact that he was outrighted off the Mariners’ 40-man roster before the 2021-22 offseason officially began (and is thus technically a minor league free agent).
Still just 26 years of age, Bauers isn’t terribly far removed from ranking as one of the sport’s top 100 prospects, per both Baseball America and MLB.com, in the 2016-17 and 2017-18 offseasons. He’s been a part of two notable three-team trades, going from San Diego to Tampa Bay in the Wil Myers/Steven Souza/Trea Turner/Joe Ross blockbuster (also including the Nats) and also going from Tampa Bay to Cleveland in the Carlos Santana/Edwin Encarnacion/Yandy Diaz deal (which also included the Mariners).
Bauers has logged 1126 plate appearances in the big leagues over the past three seasons but hasn’t produced in Tampa Bay, Cleveland or in Seattle (where he landed following a third minor trade this past summer). He’s a career .213/.307/.348 hitter with 27 home runs, 15 stolen bases and a 26.4% strikeout rate. Bauers has drawn a free pass in 11.5% of his Major League plate appearances, which is well above the league-average, but strikeouts and a general lack of hard contact have suppressed his offensive contributions.
That said, on a minor league pact, there’s little harm in seeing if another change of scenery will bring about better results. Bauers is a career .266/.363/.417 hitter in Triple-A and had near-identical numbers at the Double-A level. He’s drawn average or better defensive marks both as a corner outfielder and a first baseman in the Majors. And, if he were to put it together and tap into that prospect potential, he’d be controllable via arbitration for three years beyond the 2022 season.
The Reds aren’t likely to have much of a need at first base, barring an injury to Joey Votto, but their outfield mix is a bit less certain. Jesse Winker is locked into left field, and Tyler Naquin played his way into at least a platoon role with a solid showing at the plate through 127 games last season. However, the team hasn’t received durability and/or consistent productivity from any of Nick Senzel, Shogo Akiyama or Aristides Aquino. Twenty-six-year-old speedster TJ Friedl might’ve earned himself some consideration with a .290/.361/.419 showing in 36 plate appearances down the stretch last season, too, but Cincinnati’s outfield setup is hardly written in stone. Add in the likely advent of a designated hitter in the National League, and Bauers could at least play his way into a bench role with a productive Spring Training effort.
Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents
Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order. For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.
Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings. First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.
For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks. The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.
- Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary. The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+. Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category. If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
- Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds. The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere. The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town. The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins). For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
- Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round. Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.
Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…
- Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021. As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
- Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021. For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection. For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft. Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
- Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents. Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
- Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.
Central Notes: Pirates, Brault, Reds, Lodolo, Guardians, Francona
The Pirates designated left-hander Steven Brault for assignment before the lockout began, with Brault electing free agency shortly thereafter. The rebuilding club could feasibly re-sign Brault and fit him into their plans for 2022, but Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic doesn’t think that’s likely. He quotes general manager Ben Cherington as saying he’ll “keep the door open” to bringing the lefty back, but that “The health has gotten in the way the last couple of years.”
Brault missed about a month in 2019 with a shoulder strain but managed to stay healthy for the shortened 2020 campaign. Over those two seasons, he threw 156 innings with a 4.67 ERA, seeming like a decent rotation piece for a rebuilding club to have on hand. Unfortunately, 2021 wasn’t kind to the southpaw, as he spent much of the season on the IL and only made seven starts in the big leagues. He’s still only 29 years old, turning 30 in April, meaning another team could give him a chance to log some innings and show his health, even if it might not be the Pirates. He has between four and five years’ service time, which means a team that signs him and sees him round back into form could control him through 2023, as long as the service time rules remain unchanged in the next CBA.
More news from the Central divisions…
- Much like Brault, Reds prospect Nick Lodolo also had an injury-plagued season in 2021. The 23-year-old was only able to make 13 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year due to a blister as well as a shoulder strain. However, he seems to be on track for a healthy start to 2022, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He spoke to Reds farm director Shawn Pender, who says he reached out to Lodolo about two weeks ago “just to check in, say hello and how are you doing. He says, ’Gosh, I feel great. I guess all that strength and conditioning helped me, and the time off. I feel really up to the task of coming back ready to go,’ so that’s all been positive.” That’s surely good news for Reds fans, as Lodolo could be an important contributor in 2022, if healthy. The 7th overall selection of the 2019 draft, Lodolo is one of the most highly-touted prospects in the game, being ranked as the 89th-best prospect in baseball by FanGraphs, coming in at #31 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 and 23rd on Baseball America’s list. The Reds’ rotation has a strong front three in Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, but all three have been frequently mentioned in trade rumors in recent months, as the Reds are apparently looking to reduce payroll. If those rumors prove true and any of that trio is moved, it would enhance the likelihood of Lodolo being able to make the jump to the big leagues in the coming season.
- Terry Francona stepped away from his managerial duties in Cleveland at the end of July to undergo a hip replacement and foot surgery, leaving DeMarlo Hale in charge for the latter parts of the 2021 campaign. Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com provides an update, saying that Francona “should be off crutches in the next few weeks.” In September, team president Chris Antonetti said “We continue to plan looking at ’22 with Tito as our manager. If at some point that changes, we’re going to have to reconsider and relook at things at that point. But we have no reason to think that will be the case.” Based on this most recent update, it appears everything is still on track for Francona to return to health and to the dugout in 2022.
