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Astros Rumors

Justin Verlander And The Qualifying Offer

By Steve Adams | August 25, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

It’s always been a long shot that Justin Verlander would be able to return in 2021, but Astros general manager James Click confirmed to Sean Salisbury of SportsTalk 790 AM in Houston this morning that Verlander won’t pitch for the team down the stretch (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Click tells Salisbury that Verlander recently inquired with his doctors about the possibility and was “strongly advised” against attempting a comeback in 2021, as such a quick turnaround would carry “tremendous risk for the efficacy of the surgery.” Verlander had previously spoken with a hint of optimism about returning as a reliever in the season’s final weeks.

Verlander tweeted back in May that he planned to continue pitching “for a long time” and hasn’t considered retirement, but it’s not yet clear where he’ll continue his career. The 38-year-old (39 in February) is set to hit the open market at season’s end, though the ’Stros will first need to determine whether they want to make a qualifying offer to Verlander.

A one-year offer in the $19MM range would normally be deemed steep for any pitcher coming off a season spent rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but Verlander is, of course, no ordinary pitcher. He’s only pitched six innings since Opening Day 2020, but Verlander is a two-time Cy Young winner, a three-time Cy Young runner-up, an eight-time All-Star and a former American League MVP. His last full season, pitched at 36 years of age in 2019, saw him rack up 223 innings of 2.52 ERA ball en route to the second of those two Cy Young wins.

A straightforward path for Verlander may be to simply accept a payday in the $19MM range — if offered — and remain in a setting where he’s clearly comfortable. That sum checks in well north of the recent bounceback salaries we’ve seen for similarly high-profile names like Corey Kluber ($11MM), so there’d be good reason for him to consider it. On the other hand, it’s a pretty sizable cut from Verlander’s prior $33MM salary, and the veteran may simply want to test the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Verlander has played out his entire career on a series of extensions with the Tigers and Astros, so he’s never explored the open market.

The question for the Astros, meanwhile, is whether they’d want to invest $19MM (or thereabouts) into a soon-to-be 39-year-old pitcher who has made just one start since winning that Cy Young Award in 2019. There aren’t many more appealing players on whom to take a one-year flier than Verlander, but the Houston payroll is already rather large.

[Related: 2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates]

The Astros have just under $97MM on the books in 2022, and that’s before arbitration raises to Framber Valdez (first time eligible), Josh James (first time), Phil Maton (second time), Ryne Stanek (second time), Rafael Montero (third time) and Aledmys Diaz (third time). That $97MM number also doesn’t include club options for Yuli Gurriel ($8MM) or Ryan Pressly ($10MM) — both of which seem sure to be picked up, barring a late injury. None of those arb-eligible players will break the bank in terms of 2022 salary — some could obviously be non-tendered, too — but those smaller salaries will begin to add up.

Furthermore, the Astros will have some big names to replace. Carlos Correa is a free agent and could land elsewhere after rejecting the team’s extension overtures in Spring Training. Consummate innings eater Zack Greinke is set to hit the market as well, and the Astros also stand to lose relievers Kendall Graveman, Yimi Garcia and Brooks Raley to free agency. If Verlander were to accept a qualifying offer, the Houston payroll could jump north of $140MM before the team even looks at replacing Correa or any of the departing relievers. Their 2021 payroll currently sits at about $189MM.

The in-house rotation depth the Astros already possess is also a factor in determining whether to extend a qualifying offer to Verlander. Even with a pair of likely Hall of Famers potentially departing (Greinke, Verlander), the Astros can still boast a staff of Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia,Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. That’s before even considering upper-level arms like Hunter Brown and Peter Solomon. There’s an argument to be made that dedicating a sizable portion of available offseason resources to a rebound candidate in the rotation — even one with as much upside as Verlander — shouldn’t be the team’s priority.

We know the Astros are going to make a qualifying offer to Correa, and as one of the top free agents on the market, he’ll reject that QO without a second thought. Verlander is a closer call, but the Astros will surely be intrigued by the possibility of getting a compensatory pick after their recent penalties in the draft (stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal). Plus, even with the in-house options they do have, a one-year deal for Verlander has plenty of appeal. The Astros could, and probably should, just extend the qualifying offer and be happy with either outcome.

What do MLBTR readers think? (Links to both polls)

Should the Astros make a qualifying offer to Justin Verlander?
Yes 57.15% (6,405 votes)
No 42.85% (4,802 votes)
Total Votes: 11,207
Should Justin Verlander accept a qualifying offer if he receives one?
Yes, he should accept it. 74.78% (7,830 votes)
No, he should reject it. 25.22% (2,641 votes)
Total Votes: 10,471
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Houston Astros MLBTR Polls Justin Verlander

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Astros To Activate Alex Bregman From Injured List

By Anthony Franco | August 24, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

The Astros will reinstate star third baseman Alex Bregman from the injured list before tomorrow afternoon’s game against the Royals, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Mark Berman of Fox 26). It’ll be Bregman’s first game action in over two months, as the 27-year-old hasn’t played since straining his left quad on June 16.

Through 262 plate appearances, Bregman is hitting .275/.359/.428 with seven home runs. That’s not too dissimilar from the .242/.350/.451 mark he logged across 180 trips to the plate in last year’s shortened campaign. Obviously, Bregman’s output over the past two years falls well shy of the MVP-caliber form he showed in 2018-19. But he’s still been a well above-average performer since the start of 2020, and it seems reasonably plausible Bregman could find something resembling his past star-level form down the stretch.

The Astros’ win over Kansas City this evening pushed their lead in the American League West out to four and a half games over the Athletics. That’s a fairly comfortable margin, and Bregman’s return will only improve the club’s chances of holding onto that lead. Aledmys Díaz, who has mashed in Bregman’s stead over the past few weeks, figures to return to a super-utility role as a versatile, high-end bench bat whom Baker can deploy around the diamond.

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Houston Astros Alex Bregman

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Health Notes: Tucker, Escobar, Longoria, Carlson

By Anthony Franco | August 24, 2021 at 9:41pm CDT

The Astros activated outfielder Kyle Tucker from the COVID-19 injured list before this evening’s game against the Royals. Fellow outfielder Chas McCormick landed on the 10-day injured list with left hand soreness in a corresponding move. Tucker, who has been out since August 14, confirmed to reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) he’d tested positive for the coronavirus. The 24-year-old has had a stellar season at the plate, hitting .272/.334/.519 with 22 homers over 420 plate appearances. McCormick has also had a quality year, positing a .260/.319/.466 line and earning a larger share of playing time in center field following Houston’s trade of Myles Straw to the Indians at the deadline. Fellow rookie Jake Meyers looks likely to handle center while McCormick’s out of action. The Astros hold a four-game advantage over the A’s in the AL West.

More on other notable health situations around the league:

  • The Brewers placed infielder Eduardo Escobar on the 10-day injured list with a right hamstring strain this afternoon. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) the expectation is that Escobar will be sidelined for around two weeks. Escobar has continued to perform well since being traded from the Diamondbacks to Milwaukee, hitting .280/.337/.451 over 89 plate appearances. Luis Urías should step back in at the hot corner on a daily basis while Escobar’s sidelined. Milwaukee holds a comfortable seven and a half game lead over the Reds in the NL Central entering the clubs’ series this week.
  • The Giants activated third baseman Evan Longoria from the COVID-19 IL to instead place him on the 10-day IL with a right hand contusion. Longoria had only been on the COVID IL for a couple days after experiencing vaccine side effects, but he’s now in line to miss at least a week and a half with his current hand issue. Longoria just made it back from a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain last week, but he was hit by a pitch during last Wednesday’s game. When healthy, Longoria has been fantastic this season, hitting .289/.382/.526 with ten homers across 199 plate appearances. His performance has been among the reasons for San Francisco’s three-game advantage over the Dodgers in the NL West. To temporarily open 40-man roster space for Longoria, the Giants placed Kevin Gausman on the COVID IL. Gausman is dealing with vaccine side effects himself, but there’s no indication he won’t be ready for his scheduled start on Friday against the Braves. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man transaction at that point.
  • The Cardinals welcomed outfielder Dylan Carlson back from the injured list today. The 22-year-old missed just under two weeks with a right wrist issue. Carlson has had a nice rookie season, hitting .261/.341/.419 while seeing action at all three outfield spots. With Harrison Bader healthy, Carlson can stick in a corner role for which he’s better suited. St. Louis trails the Reds by four and a half games for the National League’s final playoff spot, so continued above-average offensive output from Carlson would be a boon if the Cards are to make a surprise playoff push over the season’s final few weeks.
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Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers Notes San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Chas McCormick Dylan Carlson Eduardo Escobar Evan Longoria Kevin Gausman Kyle Tucker

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AL West Notes: Astros, Bregman, Angels, Trout, A’s, Brown, Piscotty

By TC Zencka | August 21, 2021 at 1:30pm CDT

The Astros are expected to activate star third baseman Alex Bregman from the injured list on Monday, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). That should be welcome news for the Houston faithful. The Astros have been without Bregman since June 17th when he suffered a quad strain. He will play what could be a final rehab game for Triple-A Sugar Land tomorrow, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros have held up without Bregman, but with just a 2.5 game lead over the A’s in the West, Dusty Baker’s squad could certainly use another big bat. Speaking of those Athletics…

  • Seth Brown wasn’t gone for long. The A’s outfielder was optioned to Triple-A yesterday, but he’s back on the active roster today, replacing Stephen Piscotty, who heads to the 10-day injured list with a sprained left wrist, the team announced. Brown steps right into the starting lineup today playing right field. Piscotty, meanwhile, is suffering through the worst season of his career, slashing .220/.282/.353 in 173 plate appearances — an output worth -0.6 rWAR.
  • Mike Trout is running about every other day, and though he’s nearing a rehab assignment, a date has not yet been set, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Angels are exactly .500 at 62-62, which puts them 11 games out of first and 8.5 out of a playoff spot. Trout doesn’t exactly have to hustle back for the playoff race, then, though the Halos do have a chance to finish above .500 for the first time since 2015. Trout has been out since May 18th with a calf strain, though the superstar refers to the injury as a tear.
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Athletics Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Notes Transactions Alex Bregman Dusty Baker Mike Trout Seth Brown Stephen Piscotty

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2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

By Anthony Franco | August 20, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

  • Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

  • Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

  • Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Charlie Morton

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

  • Mark Canha, Avisaíl García, Kwang-hyun Kim, Corey Kluber, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Alex Wood

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

  • Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

  • Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)
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2021-22 MLB Free Agents Athletics Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets New York Yankees Newsstand San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Adam Wainwright Alex Wood Anthony DeSclafani Avisail Garcia Brandon Belt Buster Posey Carlos Correa Carlos Rodon Charlie Morton Chris Taylor Clayton Kershaw Corey Kluber Corey Seager Eduardo Rodriguez Freddie Freeman J.D. Martinez Jon Gray Justin Verlander Kwang-Hyun Kim Marcus Semien Mark Canha Michael Conforto Nick Castellanos Noah Syndergaard Nolan Arenado Raisel Iglesias Robbie Ray Trevor Story Yusei Kikuchi

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Astros Release Francis Martes

By Anthony Franco | August 18, 2021 at 7:18pm CDT

The Astros released Francis Martes this week, notes Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The 25-year-old is now a free agent.

It’s an unceremonious end to Martes’ seven-year tenure with the Astros. Signed by the Marlins as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, the big right-hander wound up on the move to Houston at the 2014 trade deadline. The then-rebuilding Astros picked up Martes alongside Colin Moran, Jake Marisnick and the #37 overall pick in the 2015 draft (eventually used to select Daz Cameron) for Jarred Cosart and Kiké Hernández.

Martes was a rookie ball flier at the time of the trade, but he quickly developed into one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. By 2016, Martes was viewed by Baseball America as one of the top twenty minor league talents throughout the league. He made his big league debut in 2017, and while he didn’t perform well over 54 1/3 innings, he still seemed like a potential high-upside member of the pitching staff over the coming years.

Unfortunately, Martes hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since then. He dealt with an elbow issue in Spring Training in 2018 and ultimately required Tommy John surgery that August. He was suspended eighty games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance the following season. That looked largely like a moot point — his Tommy John rehab cost him most of that year regardless — but he was hit with a second PED ban in February 2020. As a two-time offender, Martes was suspended for all of last season and into June of this year.

Martes was optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land upon his return from that latest ban. He was passed through outright waivers not long thereafter. His time with the Skeeters was a disaster, as Martes allowed 21 runs in 11 2/3 innings, walking a staggering 20 hitters in that time.

Obviously, Martes’ stock has fallen precipitously over the past few years. Nevertheless, it still seems likely he’ll latch on somewhere on a minor league deal. He’s young enough for a rival club to take a no-risk flier in hopes that Martes can recapture some of the highly promising form he showed at his prospect peak.

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Houston Astros Transactions Francis Martes

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Latest On Alex Bregman

By Mark Polishuk | August 15, 2021 at 10:37pm CDT

Alex Bregman hasn’t played in a big league game since June 16, and it remains unclear as to when the Astros third baseman will return from the left quad strain that has waylaid his season.  In an interview today with radio host Robert Ford (hat tip to Danielle Lerner of The Houston Chronicle), Astros GM James Click indicated that Bregman wouldn’t be returning to his minor league rehab assignment in the near future.

“We determined that the best course of action was to do a lot of work that didn’t involve playing in games,” Click said.  “Right now we’re making sure he’s good to go at full speed with his legs fully underneath him. Once we feel like that’s been accomplished we’ll move onto hitting.”

It seemed like Bregman was on the verge of a return just one week ago, as he left his Triple-A rehab assignment to rejoin the Astros in Houston. However, rather than reinstatement from the 60-day injured list, Bregman has continued to sit out as all parties weigh his next course of action.  Bregman has continued to work out with the Triple-A Sugar Land Skeeters, posting this video today (via his Twitter feed) of a running drill.

As per the rules of injured list placements, minor league rehab assignments must be completed in less than 20 days or else the player must sit out five days before restarting the assignment.  That five-day window has since elapsed and Bregman has yet to resume playing for the Skeeters.

With this much uncertainty surrounding even Bregman’s minor league work, it is anyone’s guess as to when he might finally get back on the field with the Astros.  Click didn’t hint at a projection, saying “unfortunately a lot of it is let’s test today, test tomorrow, test the next day and see how everything responds.  And we don’t see a timeframe until we see how his body responds to the tests over the next couple days.”

The Astros have remained in first place in the AL West even without Bregman for all but 59 games of the season, as he also missed time on the COVID-19 list in April.  Since returning from his own IL stint, Aledmys Diaz has been on a tear at the plate and has assumed most of the everyday third base duties.  That said, Houston is absolutely a better team with Bregman back in the mix, and the Astros may need all the help they can get to hold off the streaking Athletics for the division lead.

Kyle Tucker also won’t be available for at least a week, as manager Dusty Baker told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters.  Tucker was placed on the injured list yesterday for undisclosed health/safety protocol reasons, which would seem to imply some connection to COVID-19.

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Houston Astros Alex Bregman Kyle Tucker

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Astros Activate Yuli Gurriel, Place Kyle Tucker On Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2021 at 5:06pm CDT

The Astros are exchanging one offensive star for another, as Yuli Gurriel was activated off the 10-day injured list today, but outfielder Kyle Tucker is now heading to the IL.  No specific reason was given for Tucker’s placement beyond health and safety protocols.

Gurriel’s IL stint retroactively began on August 3, so he is back after a minimal absence due to neck stiffness.  The 37-year-old will now resume what has been the finest of his six MLB seasons, as Gurriel is hitting .324/.388/.490 with 12 home runs over 417 plate appearances as Houston’s everyday first baseman.  Gurriel has delivered both quality contact and quantity, as he has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any player in baseball — he has almost as many walks (41) as strikeouts (45) this season.

Tucker isn’t far off Gurriel’s overall offensive production, as the outfielder has 22 homers and a .272/.334/.519 slash line over 420 plate appearances.  The non-specific nature of Tucker’s placement would hint that his absence is related to COVID-19, though it could be due to contact tracing or general symptoms rather than an actual positive test for the coronavirus.  (As a reminder, teams aren’t obligated to publicly disclose reasons why a player is on the COVID list.)  Tucker already spent a week on the COVID list in June for precautionary reasons after he displayed flu-like symptoms.

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Houston Astros Transactions Kyle Tucker Yuli Gurriel

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Astros Reinstate Pedro Baez From Injured List

By Anthony Franco | August 10, 2021 at 6:28pm CDT

The Astros announced they’re activating reliever Pedro Báez from the 60-day injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the Rockies. Bullpen colleague Rafael Montero is landing on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder discomfort in a corresponding move. To open space for Báez on the 40-man roster, the club transferred righty Andre Scrubb from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Báez, signed to a two-year deal over the winter, is finally in line to make his Astros debut. The 33-year-old missed a few weeks in Spring Training after testing positive for COVID-19, then felt soreness in his right shoulder during his attempt to ramp up a throwing program. The latter issue has kept him out of action for the past few months as the soreness has persisted. Fortunately, he’s now apparently healthy and able to contribute for the stretch run.

During his time with the Dodgers, Báez was quietly one of the league’s more consistent and productive relievers. He posted an ERA between 2.63 and 3.35 during each of his seven seasons in L.A. While Báez’s run prevention numbers never wavered, his peripherals have tailed off in recent seasons. The righty struck out a career-worst 18.6% of opponents last year with accompanying dips in swinging strike rate and velocity.

That came in a 17-inning sample during an anomalous year, though, and the Astros felt comfortable enough to add Báez on a $12.5MM guarantee. If he pitches at or near the level he showed throughout his Dodgers’ tenure, Báez would be a significant upgrade to a Houston relief unit that’s middle of the pack in terms of ERA (3.97) and strikeout/walk rate differential (15.2 percentage points).

Houston added Montero alongside Kendall Graveman from the Mariners at the trade deadline as part of an effort to shore up the bullpen. Montero had a nightmarish time in Seattle, but he’d begun his Astros tenure with six innings of one-run ball. He left Sunday’s game against the Twins with a shoulder issue, though, and his recovery timeline remains uncertain.

Scrubb is also down with a shoulder issue. The 26-year-old landed on the IL on July 19 with a strain. Today’s transfer rules him out for sixty days from that date, so he’s looking at a mid-September return in a best case scenario. There’s no word on whether or not the team expects he’ll be able to pitch again this season.

Manager Dusty Baker provided reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of FOX 26) with updates on a pair of different injured players. Star third baseman Alex Bregman still isn’t ready to return, and his allotted twenty-day rehab window has passed. League rules stipulate that position players not prepared to return after the conclusion of their rehab period must remain inactive for at least five days before reembarking on a minor league assignment, so Bregman can’t return to game action until Friday.

Starter José Urquidy, meanwhile, is scheduled to begin his own rehab assignment tomorrow. Baker said the club is hopeful he’ll be back on a big league mound by September 1. Urquidy has been out since June 30 with right shoulder discomfort.

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Houston Astros Transactions Alex Bregman Andre Scrubb Jose Urquidy Pedro Baez Rafael Montero

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Astros Notes: Bregman, Brantley, Montero

By Mark Polishuk | August 10, 2021 at 1:30pm CDT

TODAY: Bregman is “not ready yet,” Baker said during a radio interview on SportsTalk 790 (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle).  The third baseman is “taking a couple days off to get some treatment” and will then presumably return to his minor league rehab assignment, with Baker hopeful Bregman can return to the Astros within 7-10 days.

AUGUST 8: Alex Bregman was in Houston today watching the Astros in action, and an official return to the field might not be far away.  Manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that Bregman was meeting with the team after playing nine innings in each of his last two rehab games with Triple-A Sugar Land.

A left quad strain sent Bregman to the 10-day injured list back on June 17, so it will be just shy of a two-month absence for the third baseman if he is indeed activated this week.  The Astros have a two-game series with the Rockies sandwiched between off-days on Monday and Thursday this week, and if Bregman is already in Houston, it would hint that he could be reinstated from the IL as early as Tuesday.

Between his quad issue and a week-long absence in April due to COVID-19 protocols, Bregman has played in only 59 games this season, but he has still been productive in hitting .275/.359/.428 over 262 plate appearances.  This roughly matches his slash line over 180 PA in 2020, as Bregman was hampered by a hamstring injury last year and limited to 44 games of the 60-game regular season.  While a big step down from his MVP-caliber numbers in 2018 and 2019, Bregman is certainly still a dangerous bat when healthy, and his return will help bolster a Houston team that has its eyes on more postseason success.

While Bregman’s probable return is good news for the Astros, the club also had some more injury scares in today’s 7-5 loss to the Twins.  The Astros announced that Michael Brantley was removed for precautionary reasons after a blow to the head during a collision with Twins shortstop Andrelton Simmons while running the bases early in the game.  Brantley, in the lineup as the DH, was replaced by a pinch-hitter in the third inning.

In the eighth, Rafael Montero had to depart one pitch into a Rob Refsnyder plate appearance.  Entering the game in the previous inning, Montero retired his first five batters before walking Miguel Sano, and then picking up some type of injury against Refsnyder.  Post-game, Baker said Montero was suffering from some shoulder soreness, and will receive further examination by the team’s medical staff.

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Houston Astros Notes Alex Bregman Michael Brantley Rafael Montero

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