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The New Fernando Tatis Jr.

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Just over a year ago, MLB announced that Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. had been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. The announcement came as Tatis was on the cusp of making his 2022 season debut after undergoing wrist surgery in March of that year due to a fractured wrist sustained during an offseason motorcycle accident.

The news shook the baseball world, as it was the first time a star player in his prime had been suspended for PED usage since Ryan Braun nearly a decade earlier. A whirlwind of controversy surrounded Tatis throughout the 2022 campaign and in the lead up to his return to the field back in April. Since then, however, Tatis has fallen into the background as discourse surrounding the Padres quickly began to focus on their disappointing season. Down years from Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish captured most of the focus around the baseball world, as well as the strong performances the club has received from Blake Snell, Juan Soto, and Ha-Seong Kim.

Though Tatis hasn’t been at the forefront of most fans’ minds this season, we’re getting a glimpse of what the now-24 year old looks like as a player in the wake of his lost season last year. While he hasn’t been the perennial-MVP candidate he looked to be in his first three seasons as a big leaguer, Tatis has put together a radically different profile this year that nonetheless should keep him in the conversation as one of the best everyday regulars in the sport.

From his debut in 2019 until the 2021 campaign that saw him appear in his first career All Star game and finish third in NL MVP voting, Tatis was the prototypical young superstar. A shortstop with speed and power, Tatis featured the best ISO, the second best wRC+, and the third best fWAR total among MLB regulars during his first three seasons as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, Statcast indicates the youngster boasted sprint speeds and barrel rates in the 95th percentile or better in each of those seasons, clearly indicating he was elite in both respects. On the other side of things, Tatis had a significant problem with strikeouts. His 27.6% strikeout rate in the first three seasons of his career was the 19th-highest among MLB regulars, higher than the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.

Flash forward to 2023, and almost all of these things have changed. Most obviously, Tatis is no longer a shortstop; both Bogaerts and Kim have supplanted San Diego’s $340MM man on the infield depth chart, prompting Tatis to move into a regular role in the outfield. He’s played right field almost exclusively this year, with four games in center and a one-inning cameo at second base representing his only appearances elsewhere on the diamond. While Tatis’s glove may have slid down the defensive hierarchy in 2023, his value on defense has soared. Tatis was worth -10 Outs Above Average and -9 Defensive Runs Saved as a shortstop in his first three seasons in the majors, leaving him well below average at the position.

By contrast, Tatis’s aforementioned move to the outfield has seen him not only provide positive value with his glove, but become one of the best defensive players in the sport this year. Tatis ranks in the 96th percentile with a +12 OAA in 2023, a figure bested by zero outfielders and only eight players at any position this season. Meanwhile, his +23 DRS makes him the second most valuable fielder in all of baseball this year by that metric, outclassed by only Daulton Varsho’s +26 figure.

While Tatis’s defense has shown this season, his offense has taken a considerable hit. Overall on the season, he’s slashed just .257/.321/.455 in 558 trips to the plate. While that’s still good for a well above average wRC+ of 115, it pales in comparison to the 154 figure he entered the 2023 campaign with for his career. That drop in offensive production comes almost exclusively from a relative power outage. Tatis has hit just 23 homers this season, a far cry from his 2021 season where he slammed 42 dingers in less trips to the plate than he’s taken this year. His once-lofty ISO that was second to only Shohei Ohtani in 2021 has dropped to just .198 this year. That figure is barely enough to crack the top 50, putting him alongside the likes of Justin Turner and Willson Contreras rather than Ohtani and Matt Olson.

That being said, it hasn’t been all bad for Tatis on the offensive side of things. His speed is as elite as ever, clocking in with a 95th percentile sprint speed per Statcast. Meanwhile, he’s 25-for-29 on the bases, and figure identical to his 2021 total. What’s more, he’s seen considerable improvements in his strikeout rate. He’s punching out in just 21.7% of his plate appearances this year, a figure that puts him in line with hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jeimer Candelario and Josh Bell and pushes him to better than league average in terms of strikeouts for the first time in his career.

That improvement in strikeouts is thanks to Tatis posting the highest full-season contact rate of his career, as he’s made contact on 71.4% of his swings compared to 68.4% for his career entering his season. Unfortunately, he’s also swinging more than he did in his first three seasons. While he entered 2023 swinging at less than half of the pitches he’s seen in his career (49.1%), that figure has jumped to 54.3% in 2023. While that isn’t necessarily a problem, those additional swings are primarily occurring outside the strike zone: after swinging at 32% of pitches seen outside of the zone from 2019-21, he’s swinging at 36.1% of those same pitches this year. Given that, it’s hardly a surprise he’s posting the lowest barrel rate of his career (11.9%) despite a Hard-Hit rate that’s largely in line with his career norms.

Only time will tell if Tatis will be able to recapture his elite power stroke in the future by swinging less often outside of the strike zone. Fortunately for the Padres, though, Tatis remains an immensely valuable player even if his 2023 performance with the bat is his new normal. Tatis has been worth 4.0 fWAR and 5.0 rWAR this season. That fWAR figure puts him in the same ballpark as quality players like Soto, Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger this year, while his rWAR is the eighth-highest total in the NL this season. With 11 more years left on Tatis’s megadeal with the Padres, it’s surely a relief to A.J. Preller’s front office that the player they’ll be paying through his age-35 season can still play at an All Star-caliber level, even if he’s no longer be the 40-homer shortstop he was in 2021.

Padres "A Strong Candidate To Sign" Jung Hoo Lee

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Mookie Betts hasn’t played since suffering a bone bruise on his left foot on Thursday, though the superstar could be back in action as early as Monday when the Dodgers open a series against the Padres.  In the wake of the initial injury, the Dodgers put Betts through a battery of tests to ensure that his foot hadn’t incurred more serious damage, and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes that Betts was walking normally around the L.A. clubhouse yesterday.

  • The Padres are “viewed as a strong candidate to sign” Jung Hoo Lee this winter, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes.  Lee has been posting excellent numbers over seven seasons in the KBO League, and only just turned 25 years old last month.  The outfielder’s 2023 season was prematurely ended due to ankle surgery, but Lee is still expected to be posted to MLB teams by the Kiwoom Heroes, his KBO club.  The Padres have traditionally been aggressive on the international market, and they might have an extra recruiting advantage since Ha-Seong Kim is a close friend of Lee’s and a former teammate with the Heroes.

Padres Select Jurickson Profar

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Sept. 8: The Padres have formally announced the Profar and Rosario moves. San Diego has placed Sanchez on the 10-day injured list and moved righty Alek Jacob to the 60-day IL in order to open space on the roster.

Sept. 7: The Padres will select Jurickson Profar back onto the major league roster, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Friars also plan to recall infielder Eguy Rosario from Triple-A. San Diego will presumably announce the moves before tomorrow’s series opener in Houston.

Profar returns to San Diego for the first time this year. The one-time top prospect spent the 2020-22 campaigns with the Friars. He hit .244/.333/.375 over that stretch, including a .243/.331/.391 showing in 152 games a year ago. He opted out of the final season of his contract and joined the Rockies on a $10MM free agent deal late in Spring Training, presumably after not finding the multi-year pact he’d been anticipating.

The 30-year-old’s stint in Denver didn’t work out. Profar slumped to a .236/.316/.364 slash despite spending half his games at Coors Field. While the delayed start to the season probably didn’t do him any favors, he never seemed to find a rhythm. Profar was hitting just .210/.288/.324 from the start of the second half until Colorado released him on August 27.

A few days later, the Padres brought him back on a minor league deal. Profar only suited up in four games for their top affiliate in El Paso before earning a return to the MLB roster. San Diego will have to formally select him onto the 40-man roster, though that won’t be an obstacle. The Friars could place any of Jake Cronenworth, Gary Sánchez or Ji Man Choi on the 60-day injured list to create a spot.

Profar has played exclusively left field at the MLB level over the past two seasons but picked up a couple starts at first base in Triple-A. He had plenty of infield experience earlier in his career and could potentially move around off the bench. With San Diego’s playoff hopes extinguished, it’s simply a depth add for the final few weeks. Profar will return to free agency at the start of the offseason. San Diego will pay him at the prorated $720K minimum level with the Rockies on the hook for the rest of his salary.

Multiple Clubs Had Pre-Deadline Interest In Tommy Pham

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Outfielder Tommy Pham was traded from the Mets to the Diamondbacks prior to the trade deadline but seemingly had plenty of interest around the league. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Twins, Yankees, Dodgers, Rays and Padres all had interest in him. That’s in addition to reported interest from other clubs, such as the Blue Jays, Rangers and Phillies.

Pham, 35, has had many strong seasons in his career but has been a bit inconsistent of late. From 2015 to 2019, he hit a combined .277/.373/.472 for a wRC+ of 130, producing above-average offense in each individual season. He struggled in 2020 by hitting .211/.312/.312, but there were reasons to expect that was a blip. That year was played in the unusual circumstances of the pandemic, with the season shortened to just 60 games. Pham also suffered a fractured hamate that year and only played 31 of those 60 contests.

He was able to get back on track somewhat in 2021, with a line of .229/.340/.383. Buoyed by a 13.9% walk rate, his wRC+ was 103, indicating he was 3% above league average. But last year, that walk rate dipped to 9% and his line of .236/.312/.374 resulted in a wRC+ of 90.

On the heels of that down year, the Mets were able to sign him to a one-year deal with a modest $6MM guarantee. They were likely intrigued by Pham’s continued excellent with the platoon advantage, as he still hit .273/.338/.446 against lefties despite the subpar season overall in 2022. That’s long been a strength for him, as he’s hit .271/.382/.456 against southpaws for his career as a whole.

The Mets were rewarded by seeing Pham bounce back into good form. In 79 games as a Met, he hit .268/.348/.472 for a wRC+ of 125, and he wasn’t limited to platoon work either. He produced solid work regardless of who was on the mound, slashing .255/.339/.532 against lefties and .277/.355/.431 versus righties. He hasn’t quite been able to carry that over to his new club, hitting .243/.290/.417 while striking out in a quarter of his trips to the plate. Although he was walking at an 11% clip with the Mets, that rate has dropped to just 5.6% with Arizona.

The fact that Pham had such widespread interest prior to the deadline would seem to bode well for him this winter. Even with his dip in results since the deal, his season-long offense translates to a wRC+ of 113, his highest such figure since 2019. His Statcast page features plenty of red, as he is in the 94th percentile in terms of average exit velocity and 92nd in hard hit rate. He’s also stolen 17 bases so far this year and is considered around league average in the field by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

What might help Pham, beyond his own results, is the relative lack of impact bats available this winter. The upcoming free agent class leans heavily to the pitching side, which could give Pham and other hitters some leverage in finding deals to their liking.

Turning to those specific teams mentioned in today’s report, the Twins will have plenty of left-handed bats in their corner outfield/designated hitter mix next year, including Max Kepler, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff, Andrew Stevenson and Trevor Larnach. The Rays love to play matchups and could fit Pham into a platoon with lefties like Josh Lowe, Luke Raley or Jonathan Aranda. The Yankees are currently giving playing time to younger guys like Jasson Domínguez and Everson Pereira but might want to add some veteran presence for next year. The Dodgers are about to see both David Peralta and Jason Heyward become free agents. The Padres have three outfielders in Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Trent Grisham but designated hitter has been a big hole all year thanks to the struggles of players like Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.

Padres Claim Glenn Otto, Designate Ben Gamel

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The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve claimed righty Glenn Otto off waivers from the Rangers, who designated him for assignment earlier in the week. San Diego designated outfielder Ben Gamel for assignment in a corresponding move.

Otto, 27, was a fifth-round pick by the Yankees out of Rice University back in 2017. He went to the Rangers alongside Ezequiel Duran and Josh H. Smith in the 2021 trade that sent Joey Gallo from Arlington to the Bronx.

At the time of the swap, Otto was one of the more well-regarded prospects in the Yankees’ system, ranking 19th on New York’s top-30 list at Baseball America. He placed 15th among Rangers’ farmhands heading into the 2022 season, with BA labeling him a potential fourth starter who could likely be moved to the ’pen if things didn’t pan out in the rotation.

Otto has gotten looks in the Majors in each of the past three seasons with Texas, but he’s yet to find his footing. While the right-hander tossed 135 2/3 innings over 27 starts last year, he posted a rather pedestrian 4.64 ERA and fanned just 18.2% of his opponents against an unpalatable 10.6% walk rate along the way. He also struggled in six starts down the stretch following the trade in 2021, and he was hit hard in six bullpen appearances this year. Overall, Otto has pitched 169 2/3 innings in the Majors but carries just a 5.69 ERA with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates (in addition to a roughly average ground-ball rate).

That said, there’s plenty in Otto’s minor league track record to give the Friars some optimism. He posted a strong 3.20 ERA in 96 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A during the 2021 season that saw him traded, and that year’s 35.3% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate in the minors were both excellent. Otto has never posted an ERA higher than 3.48 at any minor league level, and he’s punched out 32% of his total opponents in the minors.

Otto missed the first three months of the 2023 season due to a lat injury, so he’s pitched just 40 total innings this year. While his 10.13 ERA in the big leagues (12 runs in 10 2/3 frames) is an eyesore, he’s also posted a sharp 3.38 ERA with his typically promising strikeout tendencies (32.5%) in 29 1/3 Triple-A frames. Otto also has a pair of minor league option years remaining beyond the current season, plus an additional five years of team control remaining. Given that context, it’s not a surprise to see a Padres club that could lose a good bit of pitching depth this winter take a more or less free look at the former prospect.

San Diego, after all, could see each of Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Nick Martinez reach free agency this winter, either via the expiration of their current contracts or via opt-outs/player options that could be declined. The Padres aren’t going to firmly bank on Otto replacing anyone from that group, but he’s a controllable depth option who could earn his way into the mix and help patch some of those gaps. If nothing else, he could be called upon as a spot starter or extra bullpen arm next year in the event of injuries on the MLB roster.

As for the 31-year-old Gamel, he appeared in just six games with the Padres before today’s DFA. The veteran outfielder has been quite good between the Triple-A affiliates for San Diego and Tampa Bay, batting a combined .286/.402/.498 in 332 plate appearances, but the Friars are prepared to cut ties after just 15 plate appearances, during which Gamel collected three hits (two singles, one double).

In parts of eight Major League seasons between the Mariners, Pirates, Brewers, Padres, Guardians and Yankees, Gamel is a .252/.332/.384 hitter. He’s drawn walks at a healthy 10.1% clip but also fanned in just under a quarter of his plate appearances. Gamel is primarily a corner outfielder but lacks the prototypical power associated with those positions, evidenced by a career-high 11 home runs and a tepid .131 ISO in his career (slugging percentage minus batting average). Now that Gamel has been designated for assignment, the Padres will place him on outright waivers or release waivers within the next five days.

Gary Sanchez, Ji Man Choi Diagnosed With Fractures

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Padres catcher Gary Sánchez broke his right wrist during this afternoon’s loss to the Phillies, manager Bob Melvin tells reporters (including Annie Heilbrunn and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). In other unfortunate news, first baseman Ji Man Choi suffered a Lisfranc fracture when he fouled a ball off his right foot during a rehab game with Triple-A El Paso last night.

Sánchez was hit by a 98 MPH fastball from Philadelphia reliever Jeff Hoffman. The pitch ran inside and caught Sánchez’s back wrist when he checked his swing. He was replaced by Luis Campusano.

It’ll bring an unfortunate end to what had been a solid rebound season. The veteran backstop didn’t find a big league opportunity until mid-May. He’d bounced from the Giants to the Mets on minor league deals and earned a very brief look in Queens. The Mets waived Sánchez after three games, with San Diego claiming him to hopefully solidify their catching situation.

The 30-year-old has performed better than the Friars had likely anticipated. Sánchez slugged 19 home runs in only 267 plate appearances. Even with a meager .288 on-base percentage, the power production made him an above-average hitter. That’s particularly true in comparison to the glove-first position. Catchers entered play Wednesday with a .237/.304/.395 slash.

While Sánchez has been maligned for his glove throughout his career, public metrics rated him as a solid defender this season. He received slightly better than average grades from Statcast for his blocking and pitch framing. His 21.2% caught stealing rate is a little north of this year’s 20% league average.

That all positioned Sánchez nicely in a weak upcoming free agent class. He’s headed back to the open market in a couple months, arguably headlining a group that also includes Mitch Garver, Víctor Caratini and Tom Murphy. That could still be the case, but he’ll now unfortunately go into the winter with some injury uncertainty.

The Friars will turn to Campusano and Brett Sullivan as the catching tandem down the stretch. With that duo already on the MLB roster, they don’t need to call on another catcher as the corresponding move once Sánchez inevitably lands on the injured list. Campusano is hitting .309/.347/.491 in 35 games this season. The 24-year-old will look to stake a claim to the #1 job headed into 2024.

Like Sánchez, Choi will also go into free agency after a major injury. The left-handed hitting first baseman has had an injury-wrecked ’23 campaign. Choi lost most of the season’s first half with a strain in his left Achilles tendon. He returned to the Pirates in the middle of July, in time for Pittsburgh to send him to San Diego alongside Rich Hill in a deadline deal.

Choi only got into seven games for the Friars. He suffered a rib strain a month ago. The foot injury suffered on his rehab stint will end his season and, quite likely, his San Diego tenure. He’ll hit free agency for the first time coming off an almost entirely lost year, in which he hit .179/.239/.440 in 92 big league plate appearances.

The Padres’ Underrated Team MVP

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Not much has gone right for the Padres in 2023. They entered this year as the pre-season favorites for the NL West title, looking as though they were ready to finally assert themselves as the big dog in the National League and dethrone the Dodgers, who have resided comfortable at the front of the pack for most of the past decade. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract before extending Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado on big money deals of their own, signalling they were all-in with the team that had traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader at 2022’s trade deadline. With Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return to the baseball diamond on the horizon, the future looked bright in San Diego.

Needless to say, things have not gone as planned this season. With a 63-73 record, the Padres are ten games under .500 and in fourth place in the NL West, behind not only the division-leading Dodgers but also both the Giants and Diamondbacks. LA has a stranglehold on the division title at this point, but both San Francisco and Arizona have solid odds at a Wild Card, per Fangraphs: 58.5% and 43.6%, respectively. The Padres, meanwhile, are all but eliminated from postseason contention this year with just a 0.6% chance at a Wild Card berth.

With the notable exceptions of Soto and Hader, the club’s expected stars have faltered this year: Darvish, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Machado have all had down years to varying degrees after signing those big money deals in the offseason, while Tatis hasn’t looked like the superstar he once seemed to be and right-hander Joe Musgrove has spent much of the season on the injured list. With the exception of lefty Blake Snell, the club’s success stories have largely come by way of their more unheralded players: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have both looked like absolute heists after being plucked from free agency to fill out the rotation, while a catching tandem of post-hype youngster Luis Campusano and minor league addition Gary Sanchez has been quite impressive.

Given that, perhaps it’s no surprise that the team’s MVP isn’t one of their many nine-figure contracts, their shutdown closer, or even Soto and his perennial .400 OBP. Instead, it’s infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has followed up a major step forward in 2022 with yet another step forward this year to become one of the best infielders in the sport.

Kim first broke into the majors with the Padres back in 2021, after signing a four-year, $28MM deal with the Padres to come over to MLB from the KBO. Kim had been an elite player during his time in Korea, slashing .294/.373/.493 across 7 seasons with the Kiwoom Heroes. He posted a particularly strong platform season before heading overseas, with a .306/.397/.524 slash line in his final season with the Heroes. Unfortunately, he didn’t come particularly close to living up to that promise during his age-25 campaign, his first as a big leaguer. While he played strong defense at second and third base in addition to his home position of shortstop, he posted a meager 72 wRC+, hitting just .202/.270/.352 with a 23.8% strikeout rate, a massive jump from the 10.9% figure he posted in his final year in Korea.

While Kim played in 117 games with San Diego in 2021, he was largely a part-time player, accumulating just 298 plate appearances. Things changed for the youngster in 2022, however. Between the injuries and PED suspension that plagued Tatis, the club’s regular shortstop at the time, Kim was given a full season’s runway at shortstop, and he made the most of it. His offense improved from nearly 30% below league average to slightly above in 2022 as he slashed .251/.325/.383 with a wRC+ of 106. That offensive performance combined with his stellar defense at shortstop and a reduced 17.2% strikeout rate allowed Kim to finish the season with 3.8 fWAR, 11th in the majors among shortstops and not far off from the likes of Nico Hoerner and Carlos Correa.

Kim’s major step forward in 2022 was not enough to guarantee him the everyday shortstop role headed into 2023, however. While Tatis was moved to the outfield during his absence, the club signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, leaving Kim to slide over to second base as Cronenworth moved to cover first following the departure of Josh Bell. While he has spent time elsewhere in the infield while covering for Machado and Bogaerts, over two thirds of Kim’s innings have come at the keystone, where he’s flourished defensively. Kim sports +7 Outs Above Average this season, on par with the likes of Ryan McMahon and Andres Gimenez. Meanwhile, he ranks tied for seventh in the majors with Gimenez on the DRS leaderboard with a sensational +16 figure.

Perhaps even more impressive than Kim’s glovework is the leap forward he’s made on offense. While he made himself a slightly above-average offensive contributor in 2022, he’s made himself an All-Star caliber bat in 2023 with a .277/.367/.434 slash line in 527 trips to the plate this season. While his 18.6% strikeout rate in 2023 is slightly higher than last year’s figure, he’s more than compensated by taking more walks, allowing his 8.8% figure from last season to shoot up to 12.1%, top 20 in the majors. Of the nineteen players with higher walk rates, only Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Adley Rutschman strike out less than Kim, putting him in elite territory when it comes to plate discipline. On top of this improved discipline, Kim has turned himself into a major asset on the basepaths this year, swiping 29 bases in 37 attempts.

Between his defensive prowess and greatly improved offense, Kim has made himself not only the Padres’ team MVP, but one of the most valuable players in the National League. His 4.6 fWAR this season is sixth in the NL, sandwiched between Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll and two-time All Star Matt Olson. When looking at Baseball Reference WAR, Kim is only eclipsed by Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. among NL players.

While Kim’s standout season hasn’t saved the Padres this year, the 27-year-old could still provide impact for a future playoff chase given that he’s under contract for just $8MM next season. With his contract ending in a mutual option worth $8MM for 2025, Kim seems likely to join Soto in departing for free agency following the 2024 campaign barring an extension. Whether the Padres decide to retool for the future and field offers on their pair of star free-agents-to-be or go all-in for the 2024 season while the duo are still under contract, Kim is a clear player to watch even as the majority of eyes will be focused on Soto’s potential final season in San Diego and impending free agency following the 2024 season.

West Notes: Scherzer, Trout, Nola, Martinez

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Rangers ace Max Scherzer exited his start against the Twins after six innings yesterday due to what he described to reporters (including Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) as a “little forearm tightness” and wasn’t sure he’d be able to pitch the seventh. That being said, Scherzer downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that his priority is to ensure that the issue doesn’t “turn into a forearm strain or Tommy John.”

Even though Scherzer downplays the issue, it’s surely worrisome for Rangers fans that he’s facing any issue at all. The veteran right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.21 ERA (198 ERA+) and 2.48 FIP in his first six starts with the club since being acquired from the Mets ahead of the trade deadline back in July. With Jacob deGrom out for the year and Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list already, Scherzer will be key for a Rangers club looking to stay in a three-way race for the AL West crown that they were dominating earlier in the season, to say nothing of his importance as a key cog in their projected postseason rotation alongside fellow deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery. In the event Scherzer misses a start or two while erring on the side of caution regarding his forearm, Texas could turn to right-hander Owen White or lefties Cody Bradford and Martin Perez to fill in for the future Hall of Famer when his turn in the rotation next comes up on Wednesday.

More from MLB’s West divisions…

  • Superstar Mike Trout spoke with reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) regarding the future of the Angels organization this afternoon. Anaheim, of course, waived a number of pending free agents including prized deadline addition Lucas Giolito earlier this week, effectively conceding the 2023 campaign in a failed bid to duck under the luxury tax threshold before the season ends. “There are going to be some conversations in the winter, for sure.” Trout said, “Just to see the direction of everything and what the plan is.” Trout refused to comment on the possibility of a trade when asked if he could imagine a scenario where he would ask to be moved, though with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani likely departing for free agency this offseason and a protracted rebuild potentially on the horizon for the Angels, it would certainly be understandable if the 32-year-old Trout wished to continue his career elsewhere in hopes of reaching a World Series.
  • Padres catcher Austin Nola has had a brutal year at the plate in 2023, slashing just .146/.260/.192 in 154 trips to the plate with San Diego. An explanation for those struggles has seemingly been uncovered, as Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that Nola has been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement. Nola referenced Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo and his issues with post-concussion syndrome as a catalyst for his decision to discuss symptoms, which included fogginess and headaches, with the Padres. The Padres have been using a catching tandem of Gary Sanchez and Luis Campusano in recent weeks as Nola tried to work things out at the Triple-A level. Nola hopes to return to the field in the minors before the Triple-A season ends on September 24.
  • Dodgers slugger J.D. Martinez is trending toward a return to the big league club next weekend, per the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. Plunkett relays that Martinez will begin a brief rehab assignment at Triple-A later this week and in the meantime will take swings at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. Martinez, 35, has been on the injured list for the past two weeks due to groin tightness and was slashing .256/.309/.547 with 25 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 390 trips to the plate before going on the shelf.

Padres Sign Jurickson Profar To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed Jurickson Profar to a minor league deal, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The outfielder, who was released by the Rockies earlier this week, will report to Triple-A El Paso.

Profar, 30, was with the Padres from 2020 to 2022 but opted out of his contract at the end of last year. He eventually landed with the Rockies on a one-year, $7.75MM deal but never really got into a good groove with Colorado. In 111 games this year, he hit .236/.316/.364 for a wRC+ of 72, the latest low point in his up-and-down career. The Rox are buried in the standings and cut Profar loose to get a look at younger players with control beyond this season.

The Padres aren’t too far ahead of the Rockies but have a slightly higher chance of salvaging their season. At 62-73, they are 8.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs gives them a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs while Baseball Prospectus is slightly more optimistic at 2.1%.

The Rockies are on the hook for what’s left of Profar’s salary, so there’s no risk for the Padres in bringing Profar back into the fold as non-roster veteran depth. If they add him to the big league club at any point, they would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for the time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Rockies pay. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28 today but Profar would have to be added to the 40-man before taking one of those slots.

Profar has played all over the diamond in his career but has exclusively been in left field since the end of the 2021 campaign. Juan Soto is the regular in left for San Diego but he could perhaps get some time off as the season winds down, or bump Matt Carpenter from the designated hitter slot. José Azocar and Ben Gamel are already on the roster as depth outfielders.

It seems that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and Profar just can’t quit each other. Preller was with the Rangers when that club signed Profar as an amateur back in 2009. Preller eventually jumped to the Padres and acquired Profar from the A’s after the 2019 season. Profar reached free agency after 2020 but re-signed on a three-year deal. He opted out of the final year of that deal, though he says he didn’t want to, and is now back with the Friars and Preller again.

Padres Place Yu Darvish On Injured List

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Aug. 29: Via Acee, Darvish said after last night’s game that he was awaiting results from an MRI but is optimistic that he’ll be able to return to the Padres in 2023.

Aug. 28: The Padres announced that right-hander Yu Darvish has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 26, due to right elbow inflammation. Righty Matt Waldron was recalled in a corresponding move.

At this point, it’s unclear what kind of absence the club is expecting from Darvish. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the righty had spoken of fatigue after his start on Friday, though there hasn’t been any kind of firm update from the team. Even if the issue is minor, the calendar figures to be a factor, with just over a month remaining on the schedule.

It’s been a frustrating season for both Darvish and the Padres, with the overall results misaligned with the underlying numbers in both cases. For Darvish as an individual, he has a 4.56 earned run average on the year, a big jump from last year’s 3.10 figure. But his 24.6% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate are both above league average. However, his .319 batting average on balls in play and 71.3% strand rate are both significantly less fortunate than last year’s marks of .250 and and 78.2%. His rate of fly balls leaving the yard also jumped from 9.6% to 13.5%.

His 4.04 FIP suggests he’s been better than his ERA might indicate, but that’s likely little comfort to him or the Padres, as the whole club has been undercut by a similar discrepancy this year. Their +53 run differential is the fifth-best in the National League, and yet they have a record of 61-70 that places them eight games out of a playoff spot, well behind several clubs with far worse run differentials.

It’s not the season that was hoped for in San Diego, as they spent aggressively this offseason to try to build off a strong 2022 campaign that saw them reach the NLCS. Part of that aggressive spending was giving Darvish a six-year, $108MM extension that runs through 2028, which will be his age-41 season. Though the Friars were likely aware that could hurt them in the long run, they wanted to lock him up while he was still throwing well and the club’s competitive window seemed to be wide open.

There’s still some time for the club to salvage the season but the odds are against them, with FanGraphs giving them just a 2.5% chance of cracking the playoffs at this point. Despite a somewhat down season from Darvish, losing him to the IL for the next couple of weeks isn’t ideal, as Joe Musgrove is already on the IL and could be shut down if the club doesn’t get back in the race. Since Darvish won’t be eligible to return until mid-September, perhaps the same is true of him, though that’s not clear at this point.

For now, the Padres will proceed with a rotation of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Pedro Avila, with one opening available. Rich Hill’s last appearance was out of the bullpen but perhaps he will be slotted back into the rotation. Waldron has been starting in the minors and could be another option and the same goes for Jay Groome, who is on the 40-man.

Looking to the long-term, a bounceback from Darvish next year will be key for the Padres, as there’s plenty of uncertainty in their rotation. Snell and Hill are set to become free agents while Lugo and Wacha both have contract options that could lead to them hitting the open market as well. That leaves Musgrove and Darvish the two building blocks with three potential openings.

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