NL West Notes: Rockies, Giants, Bochtler
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich would consider trading prospects for pitching, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. “When I say we’re open to whatever, I mean it,” says Bridich. “I don’t think we’ll ever be in a ‘sell the farm’ mode. I don’t think that’s a wise decision for us. But you have to be open minded to things that can improve your ballclub.” Of course, it’s possible for a retooling franchise to judiciously trade minor leaguers for big-league talent without dramatically changing its long-term outlook, as the Phillies showed earlier today when they acquired Jeremy Hellickson for a pitcher still in short-season ball. So it might not be wise to read too much into Bridich’s comments. He does note, however, that the Rockies are monitoring both the trade and free agent markets, and that it might be easier for the team to find upgrades via trades at this early point in the offseason. Here’s more from the NL West.
- The Giants are doing “background preparation” on David Price, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets. The Giants are, presumably, far from alone in that regard, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they continued to be connected to Price until the free agent ace picks his next team — the Giants are expected to bid for top talents this offseason, particularly pitchers.
- The Padres have hired Doug Bochtler to be Andy Green’s bullpen coach, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. Like Green, Bochtler was previously with the Diamondbacks organization — he served as a pitching coach for the Kane County Cougars, the D-backs’ Class A affiliate. Bochtler spent parts of six seasons in the big leagues, pitching in relief for the Padres from 1995 through 1997 before heading to the Tigers, Dodgers and Royals.
Heyman’s Latest: Offseason Spending, CarGo, Pirates, Kennedy, Gallardo
In his latest notes column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by classifying the Angels, Giants, Tigers, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers as the expected “big spenders” of the offseason, breaking down some targets that each club could pursue. Heyman goes on to call the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, D-Backs, Mets, Royals and Padres as “medium spenders,” noting that each has needs and could make one significant addition or a series of mid-range moves in order to address multiple areas around the roster. As he did with the big-spending clubs, Heyman examines a few plausible scenarios for each, noting that the Royals are still in the three- or four-year range on Alex Gordon, thereby casting some doubt on a potential reunion.
A few highlights from his column…
- While Andrelton Simmons‘ name has been a hot topic over the past 15 hours or so, there’s a “good chance” that the Braves will make Julio Teheran available at some point this winter. Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons at the moment, I wouldn’t think, due to a down year for Teheran in 2015. Moving him would be selling low, which makes it more difficult to envision a deal, from my vantage point.
- The White Sox were one of “many teams” to which agent Brodie Van Wagenen made a presentation regarding Yoenis Cespedes, though the greater needs for the ChiSox come at catcher, third base, second base and shortstop.
- The Rockies have again made Carlos Gonzalez available in trades, as many expected would be the case following the summer trade of Troy Tulowitzki. CarGo dominated the National League from June through season’s end after struggling with injuries in 2014 and early 2015 and undoubtedly restored an exceptional amount of trade value. Heyman speculatively listed the Orioles as a potential match when discussing Baltimore in his intro section.
- Pittsburgh has fielded offers on all seven of its players that are a year removed from free agency. That includes Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, Mike Morse, Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli. However, the Pirates are also said to be considering an attempt at locking Cervelli up on a multi-year deal.
- Ian Kennedy is planning to decline the Padres‘ qualifying offer, per Heyman. Both Tim Dierkes and I have noted that there’s little sense in Kennedy accepting the offer. The right-hander is fourth in innings pitched in the NL over the past five seasons and has averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time while posting a 3.89 ERA, 3.87 FIP and 3.78 xFIP. Homer struggles in 2015 aside, Kennedy finished strong and should get paid somewhere. It’s hard to envision a Scott Boras client being the first to accept a qualifying offer, and if all else fails, Kennedy can go the Ervin Santana route and sign a one-year deal near the value of the QO late in the offseason.
- Similarly, Yovani Gallardo plans to turn down the Rangers‘ QO. Heyman hears he’s expected to sign elsewhere despite being a Fort Worth area native. The Rangers will again attempt to re-sign Colby Lewis, he adds.
Darren O’Day Has Multiple Offers In Hand
TODAY, 2:48pm: Even the reliever-rich Royals have expressed interest, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.
11:05am: The Dodgers are “showing significant interest” in O’Day, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com previously connected O’Day to the Dodgers. With a number of teams pursuing the veteran, some executives tell Crasnick that a deal well in excess of last year’s Luke Gregerson contract (three years, $18.5MM) could be in order.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has predicted that O’Day will take down $22.5MM over three years. His age (33) is perhaps the only major limiting factor in his market, and a serious run-up in demand could conceivably get him a fourth year guaranteed.
YESTERDAY: The market for free-agent right-hander Darren O’Day is moving quickly, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (links to Twitter). The Beverly Hills Sports Council client already has offers in hand, according to Olney, and he’s planning to meet with the managers of some of those teams in the coming week. Olney lists the Tigers, Red Sox and Giants as three clubs to have shown interest in O’Day, though it’s not known if any of those three are among the teams to have extended a formal offer.
Typically, it behooves free agents — especially relievers — to sign contracts early in the offseason. A look back to November relief signings over the past few years shows the likes of Zach Duke (three years, $15MM), Joe Smith (three years, $15.75MM), Javier Lopez (three years, $13MM), Jonathan Broxton (three years, $21MM), Jeremy Affeldt (three years, $18MM) and Joaquin Benoit (three years, $16.5MM back in 2010) all landed sizable contracts despite not being considered the top names on the free agent market. Of course, O’Day also has the advantage of being the consensus top name on this year’s relief market, so perhaps it’s not as crucial for him to sign early. Still, striking early while each club has its entire offseason budget at its disposal isn’t a bad route for O’Day’s camp.
Over the past four seasons, the 32-year-old O’Day has worked to a 1.92 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. He saved his best season for his contract year, establishing new career-bests in ERA (1.52) and K/9 (11.3); opponents batted just .198/.257/.283 against O’Day. He yielded just a .210/.293/.333 batting line to left-handed hitters and dominated right-handed bats, who mustered only a .192/.236/.256 line against him.
Interest in O’Day was said to be “steep” from day one at the GM Meetings, with the Cubs, Royals, Nationals and Dodgers all being connected to the former Oriole yesterday as well.
NL West Notes: Dodgers’ Targets, Giants, Padres, Rockies
The Dodgers are prioritizing Zack Greinke over David Price in free agency, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Los Angeles also has at least some interest in Daniel Murphy (as well as a return of Chase Utley, as previously reported elsewhere) as the team weighs the possibility of finding a left-handed hitter that can play second and third. While it’s not yet clear whether the Dodgers front office will ultimately be a team that paces actual free agent spending, it seems obvious that L.A. will play a major role in driving the market.
More from the NL West:
- Los Angeles tried to open talks with Greinke during the season, GM Farhan Zaidi told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (Twitter link), but he declined the invitation. That probably should not be read as any indication of Greinke’s feelings about where he’d like to play, of course, as he may well have felt that he’d be best served by seeing what the open market had to offer.
- The Giants could be a player for Greinke, as both Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post note. According to Sherman, San Francisco could be gearing up as “big players” in both the starting pitching and outfield markets. Other executives around the league feel that GM Bobby Evans and his staff could be involved at the top of the market in both areas, Sherman explains.
- The Padres have at least some interest in Japanese infielder Nobuhiro Matsuda, Heyman adds. (At first glance, it’s a bit difficult to see a fit given that he wouldn’t appear to be much of an option at shortstop.) The NPB veteran recently took free agency with hopes of joining an MLB organization.
- Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said yesterday that he’d consider giving up a draft pick to sign a starter, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports. “The fact that it isn’t your first-round pick, the fact we do have that competitive-balance pick [between the first and second rounds], that’s where it really comes down to the fit of the pitcher and the timing of it all,” Bridich said. “You have to time it up right where you think it’s not just going to be a one-year deal for a pitcher you sign like that. There are other things you consider that way.” Bridich acknowledged that the team had at least discussed Daniel Murphy, but noted that internal talks don’t necessarily indicate serious interest, stressed that the qualifying offer was attached to the infielder, and called prior reports “complete speculation, really.”
- Bridich also addressed the reported arrest of Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes. “Obviously, it’s a serious and unfortunate situation,” Bridich said. “Just like we’ve said, there is an ongoing investigation now. It’s serious in terms of a professional sports industry. It’s serious in terms of a larger social issue. And it’s so serious that there is a joint agreement now between MLB and the union about addressing it. So that’s where it is now. We’ll let the investigation take its course and see what becomes of it.”
- The Dodgers recently added international scout Ismael Cruz, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reported on Twitter. Cruz had served with the Blue Jays previously. Ben Badler of Baseball America notes on Twitter that Cruz has landed several under-the-radar international signings previously, and Los Angeles may look for him to do just that as the team serves its $300K+ bonus timeout over the next two years.
Latest On Byung-ho Park
8:52am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the White Sox aren’t the winner, either. That leaves the Brewers and Twins in addition to the Cubs and Reds, though the latter duo doesn’t have much of a spot for Park to play (unless Cincinnati feels he can handle left field). Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported last week that the Twins have scouted Park quite a bit, though the Brewers seem to be a better fit from a roster standpoint, in my eyes.
8:37am: Heyman also eliminates the Rockies and the Phillies from the mix (via Twitter). That leaves the Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox and Twins as the remaining options. As I noted before, the presence of Joey Votto in Cincinnati and Anthony Rizzo on the Cubs’ roster makes that pair of NL teams seem like long shots, to say the least. The White Sox and Twins each have long-term first base options in Jose Abreu and Joe Mauer, though Park could certainly split time at first and DH with either player.
8:22am: The Astros didn’t submit the winning bid for Park, either, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
NOV. 9, 7:29am: We’re down to seven possibilities on the mystery team for Park, as ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel (Twitter link) report that the Pirates have not won the bidding.
There have been reports eliminating all but seven teams from the Park bidding, leaving the Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox, Twins and Astros as possibilities. And while the Reds and Cubs are technically possibilities, it’d be surprising to see either NL club post the winning bid on a first baseman, given the stars that each has entrenched at that position. The Rockies haven’t been completely ruled out, though the report below seems to indicate they’re more of a long shot than anything else at this point.
Alan Nero, Park’s agent at Octagon, tells Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that even he does not yet know which club won the bidding, adding that both league offices were closed over the weekend (Twitter link).
NOV. 8, 9:51pm: The winning bid wasn’t posted by the Royals or Braves, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter links). “It’s safe to assume” the Rays didn’t have the winning bid either, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin tweets.
9:10pm: The Athletics and Marlins also didn’t have the top bid, Heyman tweets.
7:24pm: The Mariners and Diamondbacks didn’t place bids on Park, as per tweets from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman and Zach Buchanan of AZCentral.com. Also, the Giants can be eliminated from contention, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Rockies might also be out, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding doesn’t “think anything is happening there.”
2:39pm: Italian artist Michelangelo is famously misquoted as saying that he sculpted the historic David statue by chipping away the parts that did not look like David. Perhaps that is how we will whittle down the field of suitors for first baseman Byung-Ho Park until we unravel the mystery team that submitted the winning bid to negotiate with the Korean star. Failing that, we might just have to wait until Monday, when the announcement is formally made.
On Friday, Korea’s Nexen Heroes accepted a $12.85MM bid on the rights to negotiate a big league contract with Park. As of today, we still don’t know which MLB club won the posting process, but one team out there now has a thirty day window with which to hammer out a deal with one of the winter’s most intriguing and mysterious free agents.
The Blue Jays are not the winning team, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter), and the winning bid was not submitted by the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, or Angels, either (link), The Cardinals, who are looking at various first base options, tendered an unsuccessful bid for the 29-year-old, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. James Wagner of the Washington Post (on Twitter) heard that the Nats did not have interest. Late last week, the Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Orioles, Padres, and Red Sox were also crossed off the list by various reporters.
If Park and his new club do not reach agreement on a contract, Nexen will lose out on the posting fee and the winning team will have to move on to a Plan B at first base. The reported $12.85MM fell shy of the $25MM+ posting amount commanded by lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it easily tops what the Pirates paid Nexen last year (~$5MM) for the rights to reach a deal with infielder Jung-Ho Kang. After the team-to-team transfer was arrived at, Kang and the Bucs agreed to a four-year, $11MM guarantee.
In the recently-released list of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, Tim Dierkes predicted that Park would command a $10MM posting fee and a five-year, $40MM contract from the winning team. The first part of that was close, but it remains to be seen how negotiations will proceed.
Outrighted: Ruggiano, Heisey, Wilson, Perez, Beliveau, Elmore, Perez, Sadler, Cumpton
Teams are continuing to prune their 40-man rosters as decisions arise, and there were a number of outrights over the last day or two. We’ll cover them all here:
- The Dodgers outrighted both Justin Ruggiano and Chris Heisey, with both outfielders electing free agency after clearing waivers, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links). Ruggiano and Heisey were both added very late in the season — in the latter’s case, re-acquired — and saw limited action overall. It’s worth noting, though, that Ruggiano turned things on after he was demoted early on by the Mariners, raking at Triple-A and even slashing a cool .291/.350/.618 in his sixty plate appearances in Los Angeles. The 33-year-old will be an interesting bench target for teams looking to add a threat against southpaws.
- Catcher Bobby Wilson refused an assignment with the Rangers after clearing outright waivers, as executive VP of communications John Blake announced on Twitter. The 32-year-old spent time with both the Rays and Rangers last year, continuing to serve as a fill-in backstop who does not contribute much at the plate.
- Likewise, outfielder Juan Perez is headed for free agency after he was outrighted by the Giants, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Perez, 28, has received 246 total plate appearances over the last three years in San Francisco, compiling a meager .224/.267/.316 batting line. He’s spent most of his time in recent years at the Triple-A level.
- Lefty Jeff Beliveau and infielder Jake Elmore have elected free agency after losing their 40-man spots with the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. Beliveau impressed in 2014, striking out 28 batters and allowing just seven earned runs in 24 frames, but missed most of 2015 after undergoing shoulder surgery. The 28-year-old Elmore, meanwhile, managed to rack up a career-high 158 plate appearances last year in Tampa Bay, but he slashed just .206/.263/.284.
- Also hitting the open market is infielder Hernan Perez, who the Brewers outrighted, per a club announcement. He’ll qualify as a minor league free agent. The 24-year-old got a 90-game audition in Milwaukee after being claimed from the Tigers, but slashed .270/.281/.365 and apparently did not force his way into the organization’s plans.
- Finally, injured righties Casey Sadler and Brandon Cumpton have lost their 40-man spots with the Pirates, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. Neither has spent a significant amount of time in the big leagues, though Sadler has debuted and Cumpton did throw just over 100 frames over 2013-14. Both will factor as rotation and pen depth if and when they are ready to return from their respective arm surgeries.
Giants Decline Options On Nori Aoki, Marlon Byrd
The Giants have declined their club options over outfielders Nori Aoki and Marlon Byrd, according to tweets from Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News (link) and CSN Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic (link). Aoki’s $5.5MM option will be bought out for $700K, while Byrd’s option did not come with a buyout.
San Francisco is open to re-signing Aoki, Baggarly notes, also adding in a second tweet that Aoki was completely cleared of the concussion symptoms that cut his 2015 season short. Pavlovic quotes Giants GM Bobby Evans as saying that right now, the club’s focus is on “keeping our options open in a number of areas.”
While the Giants can maintain interest in bringing Aoki back into the fold, that strikes me as an unlikely scenario, as it’s difficult to envision Aoki receiving a smaller guarantee than the $5.5MM base rejected by the team. Though the concussion symptoms are cause for concern, Aoki enjoyed a productive season with the Giants, batting .287/.353/.380 with five homers and 14 stolen bases in 93 games (392 plate appearances). Defensive Runs Saved pegged Aoki’s work in left field as roughly average, whereas Ultimate Zone Rating felt he saved between three and four runs with his glove. While that adds up to more of a useful regular than a star outfielder, Aoki certainly produced a good deal of value and would figure to be a candidate for either a multi-year deal or a one-year pact with a bigger guarantee, health permitting.
Admittedly, we saw last winter that the market didn’t necessarily place full value on Aoki’s low-power, high-contact skill set (hence the $4.7MM guarantee with the Giants), and perhaps that will be the case again this year. Even if that’s true to some extent, I’d imagine that the five homers hit by Aoki quieted at least some of the concerns over his dip in power after he homered just once in 132 games with the Royals in 2014.
Plus, the large amounts of success the Royals have experienced by deploying a contact-oriented lineup — of which Aoki was a part in 2014 — would seem to help the 33-year-old’s case. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, Aoki’s 6.4 strikeout rate was easily the lowest in baseball, with Daniel Murphy checking in second-lowest at 7.1 percent. It’s probably not surprising, in light of that stat, to see that Aoki ranked third in contact percentage, connecting in some regard on 91.6 percent of his swings this past season.
In the end, though, Baggarly writes that the Giants simply weren’t comfortable committing to Aoki as their regular left fielder this early in the offseason. Evans explained to Baggarly: “The timing is bad because we have a lot of things to address this winter and a lot of things we want to look at, and it’s about keeping our options open. To predetermine left field today is just premature.” That’s a valid stance. Aoki is a nice player, but it’s not as if he cannot be upgraded upon, and with the team expected to pursue pitching upgrades, all the payroll space they can get is important. I can’t help but wonder if the option could’ve been exercised with the intention of trading Aoki, but the team didn’t have much time to explore that market before making the final call on the option, and Aoki’s concussion probably did make that more difficult.
Byrd, meanwhile, began the year in a huge slump with the Reds and found himself hitting just .169/.188/.273 at the end of April. The 38-year-old turned things around from that point on, however, batting .261/.308/.485 with 21 homers over his final 114 games. Byrd suffered a minor fracture in his wrist early this summer but returned quicker than expected and without a stint on the disabled list. To the surprise of many (myself included), Byrd showed little to no ill effect from the injury and continued producing at a solid clip.
Cincinnati traded Byrd to the Giants in an August waiver deal, receiving minor league right-hander Stephen Johnson in return. While the thought at the time of the acquisition was that Byrd would hold down the fort until Aoki and/or Hunter Pence were healthy enough to step into more regular roles, their injuries kept them on shelf longer than expected, leading to regular playing time for Byrd until the season’s final week.
That led to some drama surrounding the veteran Byrd, whose contract had an $8MM vesting option that came extraordinarily close to triggering. Byrd needed to reach 550 plate appearances in the 2015 season to lock in that $8MM payday, but he ultimately fell six plate appearances shy after the Giants decided not to start him in the final few games of the year. Evans was up-front with both Byrd and the media, explaining that as long as the team had a theoretical shot at the postseason, Byrd would continue to play. However, once the Dodgers eliminated the Giants from playoff contention, the Giants turned to younger options such as Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson in order to get a look at the pair of prospects in game action.
San Francisco was said at the time to be open to bringing Byrd back next season, but I’d imagine that the rather uncomfortable end to the season will lead Byrd to explore his options on the open market, where he should draw plenty of interest as a platoon outfield bat, albeit probably at a guarantee that falls shy of the $8MM value of his option. Byrd fared quite well against left-handed pitching in 2015, as he typically does, posting a strong .271/.324/.476 line against southpaws.
Free Agent Notes: Leake, Yankees, Young, Iwakuma
The Giants have yet to talk contract with free agent righty Mike Leake, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). That doesn’t mean that he won’t be a target, of course, but Schulman explains that it does suggest he’ll be fully testing the market before making a decision. Generally, says Schulman, San Francisco has indicated it will be more tight-lipped about its pursuit of pitching than it was last offseason, when the club openly chased Jon Lester.
Here are some more notes as the free agent market begins to take shape:
- While the Yankees might not go after the biggest free agent names, the club could be active in the second base market, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes. New York has a variety of in-house options to be considered there, of course, but will also look at players such as Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, and Howie Kendrick, per the report.
- It remains to be seen how active the Yankees will be, but adding to the rotation figures to be one area of focus. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes (in a broader notes column) that Jeff Samardzija and Wei-Yin Chen are two names that have come up in internal discussions.
- The Royals have interest in a reunion with righty Chris Young, Heyman adds. The 36-year-old delivered plenty of value to the club after signing late in the offseason last year, of course, though he’ll figure to draw wider interest after contributing 123 1/3 frames of 3.06 ERA pitching in a swingman capacity.
- New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has made clear that bringing back Hisashi Iwakuma is a priority for the club, and Bob Dutton of the Seattle Times explains that his status will be important for determining the rest of the club’s winter. Re-signing the veteran would allow the team to approach the rest of the rotation market with patience while focusing elsewhere. If not, Seattle may be forced to spend more in adding another starter.
Free Agent Profile: Mike Leake
The Reds fast-tracked Mike Leake toward free agency by having him skip the minor leagues almost entirely, and he’s now poised to be one of the youngest free-agent pitchers in recent memory.
Strengths/Pros
The biggest positive for Leake heading into free agency is his age. Because the former No. 8 overall pick went straight from college ball to the Reds’ Major League rotation — with a pit stop in the Arizona Fall League along the way — he racked up six years of service time quickly. Leake doesn’t turn 28 until November, so the first year of his free-agent contract will come at a time when most comparably aged players are still two, if not three years removed from free agency. And, because he skipped the minors, his 1110 career professional innings are 170 innings fewer than the next lowest among his free-agent competitors (Marco Estrada).
For the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA. That marks three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings. All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate. Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent.
Leake’s mix of pitches is an interesting component of his free agent stock. Detractors can point to the fact that he doesn’t throw particularly hard, but his fastball has increased in average velocity each season, per Baseball Info Solutions. He’s also less reliant on that fastball than nearly every pitcher in the game; Leake’s 44.1 percent fastball usage was the seventh-lowest among non-knuckleballers this year, and he’s thrown it at just 45 percent in his career. Leake throws five different pitches at about 10 percent each, and you won’t find another starter who does that on a year-to-year basis. Four of those five pitches rated as above-average offerings this season.
Though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career. He landed on the DL late in the 2010 season with right shoulder fatigue but avoided the DL for the next five years, until a hamstring injury sidelined him for about two weeks in August. He dealt with some forearm tightness at season’s end, but it wasn’t serious and didn’t lead to major concern.
Leake batted quite well early in his career, and while he had his worst season at the plate in 2015, he’s an overall .212/.235/.310 hitter in the Majors. That’s obviously not good, relative to the rest of the league, but it’s not bad for a pitcher. Leake has six career homers and has hit a pair of long balls in each of the past two seasons. For NL clubs with interest, that’s a nice bonus element.
Because Leake was traded from Cincinnati to San Francisco, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for second-tier free agents such as Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy and Jordan Zimmermann — all of whom will likely require interested teams to surrender a draft pick upon signing.
Weaknesses/Cons
Leake is highly durable in the sense that he’s steered clear of the DL, but he’s not exactly a big innings eater. His career-high is 214 1/3 in 2014, but he’s never surpassed 200 otherwise. He’s young and durable, but teams will stop short of considering placing a “workhorse” label on him. Part of that is due to the fact that Leake is undersized for a pitcher. He’s listed at 5’10” and 190 pounds in the Reds’ media guide.
Perhaps more concerning for clubs is that in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.
Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria‘s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.
Part of the reason for those struggles against lefties is that while he throws five pitches, Leake’s changeup is decidedly below average. The same pitch values linked to above indicate that Leake’s changeup has been a positive pitch in just one season (and not by much). Perhaps it helps keep hitters off balance, but the pitch should seemingly be scratched from his arsenal. Leake’s cutter also ranks as a negative for his career, though it was a good pitch for him in 2015.
Market
Leake’s age, clean bill of health on his right arm and lack of a qualifying offer will make him appealing to a number of clubs. The Giants are known to very much want to re-sign Leake, and the California native is open to remaining in San Francisco. However, the Giants will face competition.
The Diamondbacks have already been linked to Leake on multiple occasions, and he makes sense for any club hoping to bolster the middle of its rotation. That could include the Tigers, Orioles, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mariners, Rangers, and Twins.
Leake is a native of Fallbrook, Calif., which is about 56 miles north of San Diego, 75 miles south of Anaheim and 98 miles south of Los Angeles, so perhaps he’ll have some desire to latch on with one of the Southern California teams, if they show interest. However, Leake also played college ball at Arizona State, whose campus is all of 10 miles from Chase Field. It’s not hard to imagine him having interest in returning to the area, and the D-Backs are reportedly interested.
Expected Contract
Four years has been the going rate for the market’s top secondary arms in recent seasons, with Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brandon McCarthy and Jason Vargas all serving as examples. However, each of those pitchers was at least two full years older than Leake at the time they hit the open market. Leake’s skill set doesn’t necessarily leap off the page and lead to visions of five- and six-year contract offers, but teams will undoubtedly recognize that they’re buying far more of a pitcher’s prime than they would with virtually any other free agent arm.
As such, five years seems not only possible but likely for Leake and his representatives at the Beverly Hills Sports Council. That’s an atypical number of years for a starting pitcher based on recent markets, as Leake would become the first pitcher in three years to ink a five-year pact (Anibal Sanchez, 2012). Typically, it’s a four-year ceiling for the second-tier of arms and a minimum of six year’s for the market’s truly elite, but there’s a stacked crop of starting pitchers this offseason, and Leake isn’t your average free agent due to his age.
Rick Porcello — a similar pitcher to Leake in terms of both age and skill set — recently commanded $20MM per free agent year on an extension with the Red Sox. That huge annual value, however, came when Porcello was younger than Leake and also was somewhat of a trade-off for keeping the term of the contract to four years. That deal serves to emphasize the value that teams will place on young arms, even if they’re not traditional power pitchers that can rack up a strikeout per inning. Because he’ll command a term of at least five years on the open market, Leake won’t be able to make that trade-off for the higher annual value, but he should still do well for himself. I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract.
List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers
Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.
- Dan Jennings, White Sox (2.171)
- George Kontos, Giants (2.171)
- Justin Grimm, Cubs (2.170)
- Arodys Vizcaino, Braves (2.168)
- Avisail Garcia, White Sox (2.167)
- Jurickson Profar, Rangers (2.167)
- Jedd Gyorko, Padres (2.164)
- Juan Lagares, Mets (2.160)
- Didi Gregorius, Yankees (2.159)
- Erasmo Ramirez, Rays (2.158)
- Chris Archer, Rays (2.156)
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies (2.155)
- Will Smith, Brewers (2.155)
- Jean Machi, Red Sox (2.154)
- Seth Maness, Cardinals (2.154)
- Scott Van Slyke, Dodgers (2.151)
- David Lough, Orioles (2.149)
- Chris Hatcher, Dodgers (2.146)
- Evan Scribner, Athletics (2.142)
- Nick Tepesch, Rangers (2.136)
- Zach Putnam, White Sox (2.135)
- Chris Withrow, Braves (2.132)
- Kole Calhoun, Angels (2.130)
- Jeff Manship, Indians (2.130)
- Anthony Rendon, Nationals (2.130)
Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.
It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.
That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.