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MLB Awards “Championship Belt” During Arbitration Symposium

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Major League Baseball hosts an annual symposium on arbitration wherein delegates from each team come together with the league to make recommendations for upcoming arbitration hearings. There is a ceremony near the end of the symposium when a “championship belt” is awarded to the team that best accomplished the “goals set by the industry,” per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. Passed annually from one year’s winner to the next, The Belt is a chintzy, plastic “prize,” intended as a moment of levity and morale for what can be a difficult process on all sides. In this thoughtful article, Carig digs into the arbitration process, its history, the toll it takes on those involved, and of course, The Belt.

Clearly, given the tumultuous relationship between Major League Baseball, the owners, and the Players’ Association, the optics here aren’t great. However harmless the intent (or however private), an award for essentially best limiting the earning potential for players is not likely to sit well with the MLBPA – or the public for that matter. MLB confirmed existence of The Belt, explaining it as “an informal recognition of those club’s salary arbitration departments that did the best.” This season, the finalists were the Astros, Braves, Cubs, Indians, Rays, and Twins.

Executive Director of the MLBPA Tony Clark reacted with a statement (via Twitter), saying, “That clubs make sport of trying to suppress salaries in a process designed to produce fair settlements shows a blatant lack of respect for our Players, the game, and the arbitration process itself.”

Quick Hits: Keuchel, Chapman, Tropicana Field

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Paul Goldschmidt became the first Cardinal ever with a 3-homer game this early in the year, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks battled it out for over 6 hours in LA, and the new-look Padres are in first place after a 2-0 start. In other words, baseball action is underway. So, too, is Dallas Keuchel finding an early season groove, though he’s stuck behind the scenes.  The slick-fielding, bearded lefty throws a 95-pitch simulated game every five days to stay ready for a fashionably late start to the 2019 season, whenever that may be. Meanwhile, agent Scott Boras is working the phones, in talks with multiple teams, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’ll be a short season wherever he signs, but hopefully his current regimen will ease Keuchel into a faster (and smoother) transition than some late-signees in year’s past. In other news around the MLB…

  • There’s growing interest in Aroldis Chapman’s drop in velocity as he averages “only” 95.3 mph on his famed heater, per George A. King III of the New York Post. Especially after a similar drop in velocity led to Dellin Betances starting the season on the injured list, scouts in New York are keenly tracking Chapman’s velo moving forward. As of now, they’re split on its significance. There is attributing the dip in velocity to the colder weather, there’s supposing the Yanks are making an intentional effort to make Chapman less of a “thrower” and more of a “pitcher,” and there are those more focused on an increase in breaking ball usage and the lack of swing-and-miss in Chapman’s game thus far. Regardless, there’s hardly sample enough to sound the alarms two days into the season. New teammates Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino keep the Yankees well-stocked in back-end options should Chapman’s dip in velo prove a harbinger of an underlying health issue.
  • The Rays are fine-tuning their new blue-lit roof in an effort to improve visibility, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Though the goal for the blue lighting is to make the white baseball more visible to outfielders, it’s a failed initiative thus far. Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows, at least, reported more difficulty tracking the baseball after some post-game testing. The Rays will continue to tinker with the brightness and hue of the Trop’s roof, but Major League Baseball may have a say as well before the new lighting is implemented in-game. The enclosure at Tropicana Field has long been a source of quirky drama, and this new lighting venture certainly adds to the singular nature of playing professional baseball in Tampa Bay.

Angels Acquire Adrian Rondon From Rays

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The Angels have acquired infielder Adrian Rondon from the Rays, per club announcements. Cash considerations are headed in the other direction.

When he was inked back in 2014 out of his native Dominican Republic to a ~$3MM bonus, Rondon was considered a top talent. Now twenty years of age, he has yet to move past the Class A level and carries only a .206/.271/.321 batting line through parts of four professionals seasons.

Rondon’s outlook on the field is at best uncertain, but the Halos will see if they can unlock some of his former promise. He’ll join another fading young prospect with a top-notch pedigree, Kevin Maitan, in the Los Angeles farm system.

Rays Broached Extension Talks To Willy Adames, Brent Honeywell

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The Rays have traditionally been pretty aggressive in locking up young players to early-career extensions, as evidenced by their recent deals with Blake Snell and Brandon Lowe.  Beyond that duo, Willy Adames and Brent Honeywell told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that they had also been approached about long-term deals.

Adames has been a consensus top-25 prospect in baseball in each of the last two seasons, and he now projects as Tampa’s everyday shortstop after hitting .278/.348/.406 during 323 plate appearances in his 2018 rookie season.  Adames didn’t specify when the Rays first brought up an extension, whether it was this offseason, during last season, or perhaps even before Adames made his big league debut altogether.

For speculation purposes, if a long-term deal was explored this past winter, recent extensions for Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong stand out as comparables for Adames.  Both shortstops also had less than a year of service time, and each landed six-year pacts with two club option years, with Anderson getting a guaranteed $25MM and DeJong (signed a year later) $26MM in guaranteed money.  It’s probably safe to assume Adames would’ve gotten a bit more, both due to his top-prospect status, and since those deals were almost topped in value by the extension Scott Kingery signed with the Phillies before he ever set foot on a Major League field.  (This is also basically the deal Lowe signed, except with one fewer club option year.)

While Evan Longoria and Matt Moore each had just a small bit of MLB service time when they inked their extensions with the club, the Rays have never extended a player who has never appeared in the Major Leagues.  A Honeywell extension would’ve therefore been a precedent-setting deal for both the team and for the league as a whole, as no pitcher has ever signed an extension before making his debut in the Show.  Moore came closest, as he had just 17 days of regular-season service time when he inked his five-year, $14MM extension (with three club option years) back in December 2011.

It’s hard to use a contract that’s over seven years old as a comparable, plus Honeywell’s health situation also adds another unique wrinkle to his case.  Honeywell said the Rays discussed the long-term deal after he underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2018.  While we can assume that the team’s offer reflected that injury risk, it still represents some courage on Honeywell’s part in betting on himself to recovery from the surgery, rather than getting at least one multi-million dollar payday out of his professional career before even throwing a pitch in the majors.

It’s worth noting that Honeywell received an $800K bonus when drafted, so he has already obtained some financial security.  Honeywell was a second-round pick (72nd overall) for the Rays in the 2014 draft, and he has been perhaps even more highly-touted than Adames, with three consecutive years as at least a top-30 prospect in the eyes of Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com and Baseball America.  The three publications had Honeywell respectively ranked 11th, 12th, and 14th on their top-100 lists prior to the 2018 season.  Honeywell has a 2.88 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 4.92 K/BB rate over 416 professional innings, and he was expected to make an impact in Tampa’s rotation last season before injury struck.

Most teams, of course, probably at least float the idea of early-career extensions to much of their young talent.  The Rays in particular have made a habit of this tactic, given the team’s financial limitations.  Tyler Glasnow and Daniel Robertson didn’t want to comment to Topkin whether or not they had been offered long-term deals or not, while Jose Alvarado said he’s be open to discussions with the club (which could hint that the Rays haven’t yet talked to Alvarado).

The front office, for its part, seems to be open for business.  GM Erik Neander said that the Rays “would love to keep the one-[extension]-a-day pace here if we could. We’re very high on the group of players that we have here. It’s a group we believe in. And when there are opportunities to find overlap between our players and our organization that increases the chances they can be here for a longer period of time, that’s something that we will continue to explore whenever those opportunities present themselves.”

Matt Duffy To Begin Season On Injured List

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The Rays have elected to shut down infielder Matt Duffy for two weeks, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, citing back and hamstring injuries. Duffy, then, will begin the regular season on the injured list, and his absence may extend beyond the minimum 10 days on the IL.

Injuries have plagued Duffy’s entire tenure with the Rays. The now 28-year-old third baseman was acquired from the Giants in July 2016, suffered an Achilles injury later that summer and missed the entire 2017 season as a result. He also spent a bit of time on the disabled list due to a hamstring strain in 2018 as well, though he managed to suit up for 132 games last year.

Defensive metrics have typically regarded Duffy as a superlative option at third base, and at the plate he’s mixed strong contact skills with a solid walk rate. He’s only demonstrated modest power at his best, however, and most of his pop eroded in 2018 (.072 ISO, four homers in 560 plate appearances).

With Duffy sidelined to begin the season, Tampa Bay will likely turn to Joey Wendle at third base, with recently extended Brandon Lowe seeing regular work at second base. Offseason pickup Yandy Diaz can also play third, but he’ll line up at first base and designated hitter as well in the season’s early stages.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Tepera, Norris, Trumbo

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Chris Sale’s freshly-inked 5-year contract extension will leave the Red Sox searching for answers to a number of questions as they move forward, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI. With Sale’s contract including an opt-out after 2022, the Red Sox could find themselves in a tricky situation at that time. Bradford notes that the contracts of fellow starters Nathan Eovaldi and David Price expire after 2022, and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is controllable through 2021, meaning that if Sale chooses to exercise his opt-out clause, the team could find itself wanting for starters. Of course, it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Sale will opt for free agency after the third year of his new contract, but it is certainly a situation that Red Sox brass will monitor as that time draws nearer. Pressure could be on the Red Sox to find and develop a new guard of young pitchers to fill the shoes of big-name Boston starters.

Some other notes from the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays received some encouraging news today, with manager Charlie Montoyo informing reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) that right-handed reliever Ryan Tepera, who has recently been dealing with elbow inflammation, will not require surgery. Having been cleared, Tepera will resume throwing on Tuesday. Montoyo added (Twitter link) that fellow right-hander Bud Norris is expected to be ready to play on Opening Day and will pitch an inning today.
  • Orioles designated hitter Mark Trumbo will begin the season on the IL, reports Dan Connolly of The Athletic. After undergoing knee surgery last September, the slugger will have to wait to make his 2019 debut. With Trumbo on the shelf, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde may look to allocate DH at-bats by committee, though Trey Mancini appears the most obvious candidate to fill that role. While it remains unclear just how much time Trumbo will miss, he said that it could be a month or more before he’s able to take the field (via MASN’s Roch Kubatko on Twitter).
  • The Rays will get right-handed pitcher Sam McWilliams back, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com (Twitter link). McWilliams had been selected by the Royals in December’s Rule-5 Draft, but will be returned to his prior club after failing to crack Kansas City’s Opening Day roster. McWilliams, who is not on the Rays’ 40-man roster, will report to minor league camp with the Rays.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Duffy, Rays, Sabathia

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After chronicling some Blue Jays notes earlier today, let’s take a look around the rest of the American League East…

  • “Unless something completely unanticipated happened,” Dave Dombrowski figures the Red Sox will halt all extension talks by Opening Day, the team president of baseball operations told the media (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com).  Most players like to have any negotiations wrapped up before the actual games begin, with Dombrowski also citing his preference for a lack of distractions.  Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and potentially J.D. Martinez (if he exercises an opt-out clause) are all scheduled for free agency after the season.  Talks with Bogaerts earlier this winter failed to materialize into an extension, while the Sox hadn’t yet discussed a new contract with Porcello as of late February.  Of course, the Red Sox already took care of one major 2019-20 free agent by inking Chris Sale to a new deal that will keep the southpaw in Boston through the 2024 season.
  • Rays third baseman Matt Duffy is likely headed to the IL to begin the season, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Eduardo A. Encina and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).  Duffy has been bothered by a hamstring problem for much of the spring, and will have tests done after he was a late scratch from today’s game lineup.  The versatile Rays shouldn’t have much of a problem filling in for Duffy in the short term, as Joey Wendle, Yandy Diaz, and Daniel Robertson are all options at third base.  Encina and Topkin also think that Duffy’s injury could open the door for Guillermo Heredia to break camp with the team, unless the Rays choose to use the roster spot on an extra pitcher.
  • The Yankees are considering including C.C. Sabathia on their Opening Day roster in order to immediately get the veteran lefty’s five-game suspension out of the way, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.  Sabathia is already slated for a stint on the injured list as he recovers from an offseason angioplasty and a knee operation, though he would head to the IL after the first five games are up.  The downside for the Yankees is that they would have to play with just 24 active players during the course of Sabathia’s suspension, though there is an off-day within those first five games if any pitchers need some early recovery.

Rays To Extend Blake Snell

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2:00pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports the yearly breakdown (Twitter link). Snell will be paid a $3MM signing bonus and earn $1MM in 2019. He’ll then be paid salaries of $7MM, $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM in the subsequent four seasons. That $16MM salary in 2023 can increase by up to $2MM based on his placement in the Cy Young race.

1:50pm: The Rays have formally announced the contract as well as the terms of the deal. Snell can earn an additional $2MM  via incentives, per the team.

1:43pm: The Rays have reached an agreement on a five-year, $50MM contract with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports (on Twitter). There are no options included on the contract, which will buy out all of Snell’s arbitration seasons and what would have been his first free-agent year. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Snell’s deal does not include a no-trade clause. Snell is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

Blake Snell | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Snell, 26, will receive the largest contract ever guaranteed to a pitcher with between two and three years of service time, breaking the previous record held by Gio Gonzalez, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. (Miles Mikolas could technically be considered in that category, though as a player who had established himself overseas and would’ve otherwise been eligible for free agency, his extension was under wholly different circumstances.) Despite the fact that he has less service time and was not yet eligible for arbitration, Snell rode that Cy Young Award to a guarantee that tops the sums promised to both Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) and Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) earlier this offseason.

Because Snell was still a year from arbitration, he was still a year from cashing in on his first seven-figure payday. Even if one were to aggressively forecast what he’d make in arbitration by suggesting he’d top Dallas Keuchel’s record $7.25MM first-time arbitration salary for a pitcher, Snell likely would’ve topped out around $35-40MM between now and the end of his arbitration eligibility. He’s possibly trading as much as $20MM in that would-be first year of free agency in exchange for the up-front payday, but that’s in a best-case scenario for his performance. A more realistic forecast of his future would need to account for the downside of injury and regression/decline.

The contract for Snell comes just weeks after the left-hander took umbrage with the organization’s decision to renew his 2019 contract for $573,700 — a raise of just $15K over the preceding season (at a time when the league-minimum salary increased by $5K).

“The Rays have the right under the collective bargaining agreement to renew me at or near the league-minimum salary,” Snell told Topkin at the time. “They also have the ability to to more adequately compensate me, as other organizations have done with players who have similar achievements to mine. The Rays chose the former.” At this point, one would imagine that renewal amounts to little more than water under the bridge with a new record-setting extension locked into place.

Snell, the No. 52 overall pick by the Rays back in 2011 and a longtime top prospect, solidified himself as an MLB-caliber starter in 2017 season with 24 starts of 4.04 ERA ball. However, he thrust himself into the ranks of the game’s elite pitchers in 2018 when he overpowered opponents with a 1.89 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 31 starts. Snell’s 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate was the fourth-best mark among all qualified MLB starters, trailing only Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Carlos Carrasco while tying him with NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. His 33.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone ranked 18th among MLB starters.

It’s the second extension of the week for the Rays, who also locked up promising young infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe on a six-year, $24MM pact. Looking ahead, Snell joins Lowe and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier as the only players on the Rays’ roster to have a guaranteed contract beyond the 2020 season. Kiermaier’s deal will come off the books after the 2022 season, while Snell is controlled through 2023 and Lowe through 2024 (plus a pair of club options). That trio won’t combine for more than $34.2MM in any single season in which their contracts overlap, leaving even the cost-conscious Rays with a bit of flexibility.

Rays Extend Brandon Lowe

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TODAY: Tampa Bay has announced the deal. It could top out at $49MM in total value if both options are exercised and all incentives are reached, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported.

YESTERDAY: The Rays have agreed to a six-year, $24MM contract extension with infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The contract contains a pair of club options that would buy out a pair of would-be free-agent seasons as well. Lowe is a client of the Bledsoe Agency.

Brandon Lowe | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Lowe has just 43 games of Major League experience under his belt but is widely regarded as one of the Rays’ most promising prospects. Baseball America rated him as the game’s No. 93 prospect this offseason, while Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs ranked him 46th overall.

The early returns on Lowe in the Major Leagues were relatively promising. The 2015 third-rounder reached the Majors for the first time at the age of 23 and batted .233/.324/.450 with six home runs, six doubles, a pair of triples and two stolen bases (in three attempts). Context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (112) and wRC+ (113) felt his bat was 12 to 13 percent better than that of a league-average hitter when adjusting for league and home park.

Lowe’s 25.6 strikeout rate was likely a bit higher than the Rays would prefer, but he showed power and drew walks at a 10.8 percent clip in his first crack at MLB opposition. That production came on the heels of a sensational .297/.391/.558 slash between Double-A and Triple-A, creating further optimism that Lowe can be an integral part of the Rays moving forward.

Defensively, Lowe has spent the bulk of his career as a second baseman, though he got his feet wet with more than 500 innings of work in the outfield corners last season (between the Majors and minors). Scouting reports have generally projected him as a potentially average defender at second, though he’s considered to be more of a bat-first player.

It’s unusual but not unheard of for teams to lock up players with such minimal MLB experience, and the Rays in particular have done so in past years with both Evan Longoria and Matt Moore. Lowe’s deal will line up identically to the Phillies’ six-year, $24MM deal with Scott Kingery — a contract signed before Kingery even played an MLB game.

There’s certainly risk to committing to a player so early in his professional career, but the $24MM risk is one all the more worth taking for a low-payroll club like the Rays that typically has a great deal of difficulty hanging onto quality players as their arbitration earnings increase. For Lowe, he could potentially have earned more over the course of his three arb seasons — and the option years are sure to be at an affordable rate — but the allure of locking in a sizable guaranteed payday when his first arbitration season is still three years away is understandable. If both of the club options on the deal are ultimately exercised, he’ll reach free agency a few months after his 32nd birthday.

Lowe now joins Kevin Kiermaier as the only Rays players to be guaranteed anything beyond the 2020 season. Charlie Morton, set to earn $15MM in both 2019 and 2020, is the only other player whose contract for the 2020 season is guaranteed at the moment. Of course, given the Rays’ wealth of young talent, it’s quite likely that they’ll explore further extension possibilities between now and Opening Day.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After a surprising 2018 season, the Rays prepared for a full return to contention with some intriguing trades and the priciest free agent signing in club history.

Major League Signings

  • Charlie Morton, SP: Two years, $30MM (plus vesting option for 2021 that could be worth as much as $15MM depending on time spent on injured list)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: One year, $3.5MM
  • Total spend: $33.5MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable International Signings

  • Sandy Gaston, RHP: $2.61MM signing bonus

Notable Losses

[Tampa Bay Rays Depth Chart | Tampa Bay Rays Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Rays enjoyed great success with the “opener” strategy in 2018, and they’ll continue to use openers to account for two of their five rotation spots this season.  Joining reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and promising but still rather unproven righty Tyler Glasnow is an established veteran, yet one that still seems somewhat “young” in the sense that we’re only entering the third season of the reinvented Charlie Morton.

After nine seasons of decent but unspectacular work for the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies, Morton breathed new life into his career as a member of the 2017-18 Astros.  The soft-tossing groundball specialist suddenly turned into a strikeout machine with a 95mph fastball, whiffing 364 batters in just 313 2/3 innings for Houston.

Since Morton turned 35 last November, however, his earning outlook was limited. It was the Rays who made a rare free agent splash to land the right-hander, agreeing to a sizable contract that doesn’t come with risk of long-term entanglements.  Geography played a role (Morton and his family live in nearby Bradenton, Florida), though Morton was undoubtedly intrigued at the possibility of joining another young team that may be on the cusp of contention.  This isn’t to say that the Rays are about to enjoy a 2017 Astros-esque level of success, yet the club has further established itself as a legitimate contender to reach the postseason, something that would’ve been sounded wild a year ago at this time.

Both last offseason and throughout 2018, Tampa Bay unloaded virtually all of its highest-paid veteran players, yet thrived by acquiring and developing unheralded young replacements who largely outproduced those more established names.  This allowed the Rays to feel comfortable in making a big expenditure on Morton — his $15MM salary is almost a quarter of Tampa’s entire payroll.

This financial flexibility allowed the Rays to take a bit of a deeper look into the free agent and trade markets.  Beyond Morton, Tampa Bay also had interest in such free agent names as slugger Nelson Cruz and second baseman DJ LeMahieu, while the Rays were also one of the many teams who discussed a J.T. Realmuto swap with the Marlins.

Mike Zunino | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsThe Rays ended up doing in a different direction to address that latter need at catcher….well, as much as a Rays/Mariners trade can be described as “different” given the two clubs’ extensive history of deals.  This time, the Rays and M’s combined on a five-player swap that saw Mallex Smith go to Seattle, while Tampa Bay added Guillermo Heredia to more or less take Smith’s place in the outfield, plus acquired catcher Mike Zunino to bring some stability behind the plate.

Zunino is well-known as one of the better defensive catchers in baseball, with outstanding pitch-framing and an increasing knack for throwing out baserunners.  At minimum, the Rays will add some strong defense and some added pop to their catcher’s spot, as Zunino has 90 homers over the last five seasons.  It seemed as if Zunino was rounding into becoming a true offensive force with a .251/.331/.509 season in 2017, yet he took a big step backwards to his old low-average and low-OBP ways last year, with just a .201/.259/.410 slash line over 405 plate appearances.  The Rays as a whole cut back on their strikeout rate (25% to 22.4%) from 2017 to 2018, so there’s some hope that a new environment can help Zunino regain some of his 2017 patience.

Such a rebound would also be welcomed from Avisail Garcia, who turned in a huge 2017 but otherwise hasn’t completed a full season with an OBP of over .309.  Garcia followed up his career year with a disappointing .236/.281/.438 performance over 385 PA, leading the White Sox to decline tendering a contract.  The outfielder was hampered by injuries last year, however, leading the Rays to take a relatively inexpensive risk ($3.5MM) to see if Garcia can get on track.

The Rays’ offseason was also highlighted by a pair of three-team trades, one of which involved the Indians and (again) the Mariners.  Tampa Bay’s involvement in the trade saw the Rays essentially swap former top prospect Jake Bauers for former Cleveland infielder Yandy Diaz, giving the Rays a bit more multi-positional versatility since Diaz can also play some third base, while matching Bauers’ skillset as a first baseman and corner outfielder.  Minor league righty Cole Sulser and his eye-opening 12.3 K/9 at Triple-A also came to Tampa in the deal, giving the Rays another bullpen depth option.

A few years after being linked to Jurickson Profar in trade rumors, Tampa Bay was finally part of a Profar deal, only as the third team in the mix while the Athletics ended up with the infielder.  The Rays’ contribution was three minor league pitchers to the Rangers, while picking up righty Emilio Pagan and a Competitive Balance Round-A draft pick (currently the 39th overall selection) from Oakland.  Pagan will help fill the void left by veteran Sergio Romo in the bullpen, though Pagan’s tendency to allow a lot of fly balls and home runs will be tested in the AL East.

Questions Remaining

This is just speculative, but since the Rays picked up an extra draft pick in the Profar trade, perhaps that might make the team more open to surrendering a high pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent….like, for instance, Craig Kimbrel.  The Rays are at least keeping an eye on Kimbrel’s market to see if the closer would be willing to take a shorter-term (one or two years) contract, though it may still be something of a longshot that Kimbrel ends up at Tropicana Field.

Adding Kimbrel would certainly be a major way of addressing a closer position that otherwise didn’t seem like a big priority for the Rays this winter.  The team seems comfortable using Jose Alvarado as its primary ninth-inning option, though it’s fair to assume that several others will get some save opportunities as Tampa mixes and matches its arms.  Ryne Stanek and Diego Castillo, for instance, could be used in the ninth inning when they’re not being used as openers.

Beyond just the personnel involved, the bigger question might be simply whether lightning can strike twice for the Rays and their opener strategy.  Opponents have now had more time to get a book on Tampa Bay’s young relief corps, of course, and the uniqueness of the opener may fade now that other teams are also planning to use a one-or-two inning “starter” for one of their rotation spots.  Adding Morton to chew up quality innings should help keep the bullpen fresh, though the Rays will again be performing a constant juggling act of their relievers, including a frequent shuttle to and from Triple-A Durham.

The same question could be asked of the position players.  Only five Rays players topped the 400-PA plateau last season, in part due to some key names being added or subtracted in trades, but also due to the team’s roster full of players with multi-position capability, able to be moved in and out of the lineup as a game situation warrants.  This season’s Rays have more of a set starting lineup on paper, though it will require some players to prove themselves capable of regular duty.

Trading Smith, for instance, puts pressure on Austin Meadows (a former top prospect) to take the leap in his second MLB season.  Shortstop Willy Adames is being counted on for his own second-year improvement, while Joey Wendle will have to avoid a sophomore slump.  Garcia is a total wild card.  Ji-Man Choi delivered big numbers over 189 PA for Tampa last season, and will now have to produce over a full year as a frequent choice as the designated hitter.  For Kevin Kiermaier and Matt Duffy, their primary challenge will simply be to stay healthy (Duffy has already run into problems in this regard).

As noted earlier, the Rays looked at some bigger names this winter, and did come away with Morton to help stabilize the rotation.  Zunino also fills a need behind the plate, even if he isn’t Realmuto.  For the remainder of the everyday lineup, however, it’s hard to argue that signing someone like Nelson Cruz wouldn’t have provided a clearer hitting upgrade.  After Edwin Encarnacion was dealt from Cleveland to Seattle as part of that three-team deal, there was speculation that Encarnacion would then be flipped to Tampa, though such a follow-up move never materialized.

The Rays ended up with the much less-experienced first base/DH combination of Diaz and Choi, with others (Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe) likely to cycle through first base and much of the roster likely getting a DH day when warranted.  Still, despite Choi’s impressive 2018 and Diaz’s highly-touted exit velocity numbers, Tampa might not have made much of a step up from Bauers and C.J. Cron, let alone the boost that a Cruz or Encarnacion would have provided.

The Rays designated Cron for assignment and watched him leave on waivers rather than pay him a projected $5.2MM arbitration salary. Bauers was moved after just one MLB season, following two years as a top-100 ranked prospect.  It says something about Tampa Bay’s belief in Diaz that the team was willing to move Bauers this early in his career, though it could also speak to the sport’s general devaluation of players (like Bauers) who are limited to playing only first base and a little bit of subpar corner outfield.

2019 Season Outlook

The Red Sox and Yankees are both at least a few steps ahead of the Rays in the AL East, though Tampa Bay compares pretty favorably to the rest of the American League’s wild card contenders.  Given the front office’s penchant for reshaping its roster on the fly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays attempt a big midseason trade if they’re in the playoff hunt.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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