Rays Sign Supplemental First-Rounder Seth Johnson
The Rays reportedly have a $1,722,500 deal with supplemental first-round selection Seth Johnson. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported the signing on Twitter; MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter) had the dollars.
That amount comes in just shy of the $1,856,700 slot value for the 40th overall pick. The selection used on Johnson was the competitive balance round A choice acquired from the A’s in a three-team swap over the winter. Tampa Bay already agreed to a number with its top pick, Greg Jones.
Entering the draft, Callis and co. graded Johnson the 31st player on the board; Baseball America was even more bullish with a #28 ranking. The right-handed hurler shot up draft boards despite an exceptionally thin track record on the mound.
Other outlets were a bit more skeptical of Johnson, who is said to have shown remarkable natural ability and early progress but remains a bit of a project. ESPN.com’s Keith Law ranked him 37th, noting that the “secondary stuff lags” his heater, while Fangraphs had Johnson well down the board at #59.
The Rays May Have Another Cy Young Contender
After a strong two-season run in Houston, right-hander Charlie Morton entered free agency last winter as one of the best starters available. Interest in Morton was widespread, thanks in part to the Astros’ decision not to issue him a qualifying offer, though age (35) prevented him from reeling in a long-term deal. Morton ultimately accepted a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays in December. Six months later, it’s looking like one of the steals of the offseason.
Facing the Athletics on Monday, Morton turned in his second consecutive seven-inning shutout and fourth straight quality start. During that four-appearance, 27-inning rampage, Morton yielded a mere three earned runs on 14 hits and posted 31 strikeouts against four walks. The Rays won all of those games, giving them a 10-4 record when Morton has taken the ball this season. Thanks in part to low-budget Tampa Bay’s decision to splurge (by its standards) on Morton, its sporting one of the American League’s leading records at 41-26
While Morton’s recent production has no doubt boosted his numbers, he has been consistently good all season. Morton’s ERA hasn’t risen any higher than 3.60, where it sat after his initial start of the season, and now rests at a microscopic 2.10. He trails only the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi among AL starters in that category, and most of his other production also ranks near the very top of his league. Take a look…
- FIP: 2.67 (second)
- WAR: 2.6 (fourth)
- xFIP: 3.33 (fourth)
- Weighted on-base average against: .254 (fifth)
- Strikeouts per nine: 10.84 (seventh)
- Expected weighted on-base average against: .271 (seventh)
- Innings: 81 1/3 (15th)
The least impressive figure there is Morton’s innings total, though it still represents a step forward for someone who has long battled durability issues. Morton has never thrown 175 innings in a season, but he’s on pace for almost 200 this year.
We can’t necessarily call this a late-career renaissance because, with all due respect to Morton, his time in the majors wasn’t rife with great moments before he got to Houston. However, a significant rise in Morton’s fastball velocity in 2016 with the Phillies was likely the beginning of his awakening. Unfortunately for Morton and the Phillies, a hamstring tear late that April brought a quick conclusion to his season and, for all intents and purposes, an end to his short run in Philly. He headed to the Astros the next season, which began a 313 1/2-inning stretch of 3.36 ERA/3.53 FIP pitching, and helped the team to a World Series title in 2017.
It was somewhat of a surprise that Houston didn’t make more of an effort to retain Morton after last season, but the Rays have been the beneficiaries of the Astros’ choice. The Rays have gotten a different pitcher than the Astros’ version of Morton, not just in terms of results.
The hard-throwing Morton’s main pitch in 2018 was his four-seam fastball, which he threw at a 31.1 percent rate, according to Statcast. He complemented it with a curveball (29.3 percent), a sinker (27.1), a splitter (6.3) and a cutter (6.3). Now, he’s throwing his curve (36 percent) significantly more than any other pitch, with his sinker (24.2), four-seamer (23.5), cutter (11.8) and splitter (4.4) checking in as his secondary offerings. Morton has lost some velocity since last year, which could at least partially explain his change in approach. At the same time, though, if your curve’s as dominant as his, why not throw it as much as possible? The pitch ranks in the league’s 94th percentile as far as spin rate goes, per Statcast, and hitters have mustered a putrid .142/.170 wOBA/xwOBA against it. According to FanGraphs’ pitch values, it’s the premier curve in the AL.
If Morton continues to use his curve this effectively, he may end up in serious contention for the AL Cy Young just one year after fellow Ray Blake Snell won it. In the event Morton wins the award, he and Snell would become the first AL teammates to take home the honor in back-to-back seasons since the Indians’ CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee accomplished the feat in 2007-08. Even better for the Rays, Morton, Snell, Tyler Glasnow (if he returns from the injured list) and opener Ryne Stanek could make for a dominant postseason rotation should the team team clinch a playoff spot.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Greg Jones
JUNE 11: Jones receives the full slot value of $3,027,000, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).
JUNE 7: The Rays have agreed to an at-slot deal with 22nd overall selection Greg Jones, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The UNC-Wilmington shortstop will receive just over $3MM.
Jones was a bit of a polarizing player entering the draft. All agreed that Jones has true standout speed and base-running ability, with at least average raw power. His prospect value depends upon whether you believe he’ll ultimately make full use of his tools.
The Fangraphs prospect team was far and away the most bullish, ranking Jones 27th overall. MLB.com and Baseball America were slightly more concerned with the profile, grading Jones in the top-fifty range. ESPN.com’s Keith Law did not include Jones in his own top fifty list, but did mention that he anticipates an eventual move to the outfield.
Going to the outfield grass isn’t necessarily a problem, as Jones seems to have the promise of becoming a high-grade defender in center. The question remains whether he’ll ever hit enough to be a big-league regular. The Rays obviously see a path to that outcome.
Rays Prospect Brent Honeywell Fractures Bone In Elbow During Rehab Process
MONDAY: Honeywell could be ready to pick up a ball again in January of 2020, Topkin tweets. His replacement ulnar collateral ligament is just fine, which represents a silver lining to the unfortunate situation.
SATURDAY: Top Rays prospect Brent Honeywell, on the mend from an April 2018 Tommy John Surgery, fractured a bone in his right elbow during a scheduled bullpen in Port Charlotte, Florida, and is out for the season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A surgery is scheduled for Monday.
Honeywell, a consensus top-30 prospect in every major outlet even after the Tommy John, had already experienced a major setback in his rehabilitation process this April when he was temporarily shelved with forearm soreness, an injury often precursor to major elbow damage. The 24-year-old’s vaunted screwball, perhaps the only pure version of the pitch used with regularity among professional hurlers today, was felt in some circles to be the tear’s root, though Honeywell only features it sporadically and had never been hurt prior to the surgery.
It’s obviously a brutal hit for both Honeywell and the Rays, though the latter can at least can hang its hat on an impressive young group of big-league arms and emerging talents below. Topkin, in a follow-up tweet, writes that Honeywell’s 2020 outlook is at yet unclear, though the club should know more after the Monday surgery is complete.
In 416 minor-league innings before last season, Honeywell had set down 458 batters on strikes while walking just 93 en route to a 2.88 ERA. He had little issue with the longball until he arrived for 2017 at Triple-A Durham, but his grounder rates remained robust. He was near-unanimously projected as a #2 starter in the majors should his stuff have returned to form. The future outlook now, of course, is far cloudier.
Rays Reinstate, Option Michael Perez
The Rays announced Monday that they’ve reinstated catcher Michael Perez from the 10-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Durham. Perez missed more than a month due to an oblique injury.
Not long ago, it looked as through Perez’s return could push Travis d’Arnaud out of the mix in Tampa Bay. The longtime Mets catcher had struggled considerably at the plate in his time with the Rays and was acquired only for cash considerations, so there’d have been little harm in cutting him loose based on his struggles. Since late May, however, d’Arnaud has come to life at the plate. He’s hit safely in six of his past seven starts, including four multi-hit efforts. He’s suddenly batting .259/.323/.481 with three homers as a member of the Rays, albeit in a small sample of 62 plate appearances.
With Mike Zunino back from the injured list and d’Arnaud riding a hot streak, there’s not much room on the big league roster for Perez at the moment. The 26-year-old has batted .274/.328/.389 in 126 plate appearances with the Rays since being acquired from the D-backs in the trade that sent Matt Andriese to Arizona last year, but he’ll have to wait for another opportunity at the MLB level. He still seems like a viable long-term piece for the Rays moving forward — particularly given that he can be controlled through 2024. Zunino is a free agent after the 2020 season, while d’Arnaud will be a free agent this offseason.
MLB Draft Signings: 6/9/19
Here are the latest notable signings from last week’s amateur draft, with the newest signings at the top of the post. Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB.com, and ESPN.com’s Keith Law.
- The Rays have agreed on a $2,045,400 bonus with high school right-handed pitcher J.J. Goss, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). That’s right at the recommended slot value for the 36th overall selection. A product of Cypress Ranch HS in Texas, Goss was committed to Texas A&M prior to his selection. MLB.com, which ranked Goss as the class’s 24th-best prospect, highlights his projectable frame; currently measuring 6’3″ and 185 pounds, some scouts believe he could grow into mid-90s velocity as his frame fills out. He also features a plus slider with “two-plane depth” and a changeup.
- The Dodgers have agreed on a $550K bonus with third-rounder Ryan Pepiot pending a physical, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (Twitter link). This represents a slightly below-slot deal, as the 102nd overall pick has a recommended $571.4K price. A right-hander out of Butler, Pepiot drew a wide range of grades from draft pundits — Law ranked him as the 33rd-best prospect in the draft, Fangraphs 62nd, MLB.com 72nd, and BA 99th. Law was impressed by Pepiot’s high strikeout totals, “great deception in his delivery and high spin rates, boosted by a power curveball with two-plane break.” At the other end of the spectrum, Baseball America’s scouting report noted Pepiot’s lack of control in his less-impressive outings, and he relies heavily on his best pitch, a changeup.
- The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with second-round pick Kendall Williams, as per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). The high school right-hander will receive a bonus of $1,547,500, a bit above the $1,403,200 recommended price attached to the 52nd overall pick and perhaps some necessary extra incentive to get Williams to break his commitment to Vanderbilt. MLB.com was most bullish on the 6’6″ Williams, ranking him 54th on their top 200 prospects list and describing him as “the quintessential projectable high school right-hander,” with a promising and still-developing arsenal of four pitches.
Rays Release Erik Kratz
The Rays have released veteran catcher Erik Kratz following last week’s DFA, per the league transaction log over at MLB.com.
Kratz, 38, has appeared in a combined 21 games between the Giants and Rays in 2019 but managed just a .102/.170/.204 batting line through 53 trips to the plate. He logged a more respectable .236/.280/.355 output through 219 plate appearances in Milwaukee a year ago.
Kratz will have the opportunity to sign with any club he chooses now. He’s never been a strong hitter in the Majors but does have some pop in his bat. He’s also a strong option behind the dish in terms of controlling the running game (career 32 percent caught-stealing rate) and pitch framing, in addition to carrying a reputation as an outstanding clubhouse presence. The Rays themselves could be on the hunt for catching depth, as fellow backstop Nick Ciuffo was lost for upwards of 10 weeks (thumb surgery) just days after Kratz was designated for assignment. Others throughout the league figure to check in on the well-respected Kratz, too, as he searches for his next opportunity.
Rays Were Reportedly Runners Up For Craig Kimbrel
While their offer wasn’t enough to get a deal done, the Rays evidently made a real effort to secure the services of veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the typically tight-fisted Tampa Bay organization was the runner-up in the bidding. (Subscription link.)
Kimbrel’s deal with the Cubs, which still isn’t official, goes for a reported three years and $43MM. He could instead have taken down $39MM from the Rays on a similar structure or instead gone for a two-year, $31MM offer from the Tampa Bay outfit.
Even though the ship has sailed on Kimbrel, this is certainly an interesting bit of information. The Rays obviously feel they can take on a rather significant additional salary this year and in the near future. Perhaps the star closer was something of a unique case, but it stands to reason that the club will also consider other opportunities at or approaching this price point.
Whether or not it takes money to make a move, it also seems the Rays can be counted on as a buyer of relief pitching at the deadline. That’s hardly a surprise, generally; the Rays are right in the thick of things in the AL East. Their relief unit has been good but could certainly stand to be improved. Plus, only one member of the current staff has more than three years of MLB service. In light of the aggressive stance on Kimbrel, the Rays now seem a favorite to put their well-stocked farm system to use in trade talks this summer.
Quick Hits: Braves, Keuchel, Rangers, Calhoun, Yanks, Giants, Rays
Reports have pegged the Braves as one of the favorites to sign free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, but David O’Brien of The Athletic throws cold water on that possibility. The Braves have inquired about Keuchel and do have interest in him, per O’Brien, though he writes their interest has been “overstated.” Atlanta has not engaged in deep negotiations with Keuchel, O’Brien adds. The latest from O’Brien jibes with a Tuesday report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who wrote that the Braves are “uncomfortable” with the idea of paying Keuchel the prorated value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer (approximately $11.5MM).
- Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun landed on the 10-day IL on May 22 with a left quadriceps strain. It turns out the injury will likely keep him out of their lineup until at least late June, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests. The 24-year-old Calhoun, a former top 100 prospect, was amid an encouraging season before he went to the IL. Not only did Calhoun hit .304/.416/.557 with eight home runs and more walks (22) than strikeouts (19) in 138 Triple-A plate appearances, but he got off to a .435/.458/.739 start with a pair of HRs in 24 major league PA.
- The Yankees and Giants were among the many teams that showed interest in outfielder Harold Ramirez during his brief stay on the open market last offseason, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Blue Jays outrighted Ramirez on Nov. 20, and he ended up signing a minor league deal with the Marlins exactly a week later. The 24-year-old has since given the offensively challenged Marlins some much-needed production, having slashed .346/.386/.449 (128 wRC+) in 83 plate appearances.
- Rays outfielder Tommy Pham has been out since May 30 with a strained right calf, but it appears he’ll avoid an IL stint. The club expects to plug Pham back into its lineup Thursday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays. Pham’s enjoying his third straight prodigious campaign at the plate, with a .300/.414/.483 (145 wRC+) line, eight home runs and 38 walks against 43 strikeouts in 244 attempts.
Can Avisail Garcia Continue To Out-Mash The Competition?
Avisail Garcia is destroying much of what he’s being thrown by Major League pitchers. After striding to the plate 208 times, he has an even .300 batting average, 11 dingers, and a healthy 138 wRC+. That’s awfully good value for the Rays, who paid him all of $3.5MM for one season of work.
There’s a reason they got Garcia for that amount: his substandard, injury-filled 2018 season, at the end of which he was non-tendered by the White Sox. It really didn’t come as a surprise when the South Siders cut bait and the Tampa Bay org picked up Garcia for less than half his projected arbitration salary.
The past is the past, so far as the Rays are concerned. What matters right now is that Garcia is seeing red and putting his contract in the black. But what happens when he returns to the open market this coming winter? We’ve still got a lot of plate appearances to watch, but what if he keeps up something like his current pace?
It isn’t as if he hasn’t done it before. Back in 2017, Garcia carried a .330/.380/.506 slash over 561 plate appearances — good for a 137 wRC+ that’s a near match for his current output. Then again, he leaned on a whopping .392 batting average on balls in play to reach that number, which plummeted back to .271 in the ensuing season while he tried to play through a hamstring injury. And he had posted underwhelming numbers previously. Garcia doesn’t stand out at all in terms of plate discipline, with roughly average strikeout numbers (despite huge swinging-strike rates) and slightly below-average walk rates for his career.
When he’s hot, he’s hot … not/not. Is that all there is to it? Should teams be wary of putting too much stock in his current upswing? Perhaps. The K/BB numbers are in line with his personal mean. There were some lean years in the past. Then again, it’s not as if there aren’t any changes worthy of attention in Garcia’s profile.
Statcast has picked up on quite a few interesting observations. Garcia is putting the barrel on the ball more than about nine in ten of his peers. He carries a healthy and career-best 46.5% hard-hit rate. His average exit velo is up to 91.4 mph after sitting just over 90 for the prior three seasons. Put it together, and Statcast actually thinks Garcia has been unlucky, crediting him with a .392 xwOBA that exceeds his .379 wOBA.
Garcia is doing things a bit differently than in the past. He’s putting the ball in the air more often than ever, with a launch angle that sits at 11.1 degrees after a third-straight year-over-year gain. His 1.24 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest of his career. (The leaguewide reduction in sinkers is likely playing a role, as Garcia is suddenly seeing half as many as he had before.) The flies are flying quite nicely, too. Just 2.0% are harmlessly dropping into infielders’ gloves, while 20+% are going over the outfield wall (about the same rate as they did for him last year).
There’s no question: Garcia is an increasingly interesting upcoming free agent asset. Garcia is enjoying a lofty .346 BABIP, but that’s not an outlandish number — particularly for a player who owns a .331 career mark. He’s even trending up defensively (+3 DRS, +3.4 UZR) and on the bases (six steals). With 1.6 fWAR in the bank, he’s on pace for a ~5 WAR campaign.
And we saved one of the best parts for last: Garcia hasn’t even turned 28 years of age. Okay, he’s just a week away from his birthday. Still, teams pondering a purchase this coming winter will get to plug a 28-year-old slugger onto their 2020 Opening Day roster.
What’s most interesting about Garcia’s free agent case is the presence of three other remarkably similar players: Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals, Yasiel Puig of the Reds, and Nicholas Castellanos of the Tigers. Their numbers obviously vary a bit, but over the past three seasons they have landed within a fairly narrow band.
All four are right-handed hitters with roughly league-average plate discipline (Ozuna and Puig are the best of the trio in K/BB) and good but not exceptional power (Garcia sits just under .200 ISO, the other three just over). Most carry high batting averages (excepting Puig, though he has done so in the past) and well-regarded corner outfield glovework (Castellanos is the exception, though he has graded as a palatable performer this year). They’re also all rather youthful free agents; Castellanos is the youngest, having just turned 27 in March, with Ozuna and Puig already past their 28th birthdays. All have had their ups and downs.
There’s more to consider than the past three seasons — Ozuna, in particular, has a much better and more consistent overall track record — but Garcia lines up rather well on a rate basis in that span. And he has handily outperformed the other three in the present season, with only Ozuna (121 wRC+) turning in above-average offensive output to this point.
In the latest iteration of MLBTR’s 2019-20 free agent power rankings, Ozuna placed third and Puig landed the tenth spot, while Castellanos drew an honorable mention. It’s plenty understandable that my wise and able boss, Tim Dierkes, mentioned those three while excluding Garcia. At that point, Garcia carried a decent but uninspiring stat line. But as the sample has grown, so has Garcia’s case to be considered among this group. Indeed, given Puig’s struggles at the plate this seasons and a tepid early showing from Castellanos — with league-average offense and marginal defense, he’s a full win behind Garcia — it’s possible Garcia will be the top challenger to Ozuna in this market class.
We’ll see how things shake out over the coming months, but Garcia’s reemergence helps to create an interesting dynamic. The broader free agent class is rather uninspiring, owing to a round of major extensions, but it’s interesting to see this foursome of youthful, rather analogous players entering free agency at the same time. Each will drive his own earning power on the field over the final two-thirds of the season, though the markets will surely intertwine. Garcia has a long way to go to securing a quality multi-year deal — in addition to producing, he’ll need to avoid further hamstring problems — but he has already done enough to this point to make that a realistic possibility.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.