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Blue Jays Claim Taylor Guerrieri From Rays, Outright Four Players

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The Blue Jays announced on Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Taylor Guerrieri off waivers from the Rays. Additionally, Toronto announced that catcher Rafael Lopez and right-handers Leonel Campos, Luis Santos and Taylor Cole have been outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers.

Arm troubles have persistently slowed the career of Guerrieri, a former first-round pick (No. 24 overall, 2011) that from 2012-14 was a consensus top 100 prospect in all of baseball. Guerrieri had Tommy John surgery back in 2013, which limited him to 9 1/3 frames the following season. He slowly built back up over the next two seasons, topping out at a career-high 146 1/3 innings at the Double-A level in 2016. However, further elbow complications limited Guerrieri to that exact same mark of 9 1/3 innings once again in 2017, though he didn’t require surgery this time around. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Guerrieri is believed to be healthy and ready for Spring Training 2018.

Santos (27 in February) and Campos (30) made a handful of appearances each in Toronto this past season, totaling 31 1/3 innings between the two of them. While Santos posted a solid-looking 2.70 ERA in his 16 2/3 frames, he also walked four and served up four home runs in that time. He turned in a 4.07 ERA in 108 1/3 Triple-A innings, mostly as a starter. Campos, meanwhile, showed promising strikeout numbers but shakier control both in the Majors and minors — a common trend throughout his career.

Cole, 28, saw more limited action yet, missing most of the minor league season with an injury before going on a 12 2/3-inning scoreless streak and earning a late look in the Majors. He was hit hard in his lone MLB appearance and suffered a fractured toe after one inning, which cut short his chances of further auditioning.

Lopez, meanwhile, had a great season in Triple-A, hitting .293/.368/.551 in 223 plate appearances. The 30-year-old saw just 63 PAs with the Blue Jays late in the season, though, and has never established himself in the Majors to this point in his career (nor has he demonstrated the level of offensive prowess he did at Buffalo this season).

Rays Will Extend Qualifying Offer To Alex Cobb, Not Logan Morrison

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Nov. 6: The Rays will not make a qualifying offer to first baseman Logan Morrison, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Coming off a breakout 38-homer season, it certainly wouldn’t have been a total shock to see Morrison receive the offer as well, and some clubs may well have taken that risk. However, the cost-conscious Rays likely couldn’t stomach the notion of paying a combined $35MM for the pair in the unlikely event that both accepted the deal, so Morrison will enter free agency unencumbered by the burden of draft-pick compensation.

Nov. 5: In line with rumblings  from earlier today, the Rays will extend a $17.4MM qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. Cobb ranks as the 11th-best free agent available on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.

As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old Cobb has only made $9MM thus far in his career, but will now receive the opportunity to nearly triple that amount if he accepts the QO. Of course, there’s certainly a higher ceiling for him on the free agent market. The MLBTR team believes he could land a 4-year, $48MM contract if he tests free agency this winter.

Tampa Bay originally selected Cobb out of Vero Beach High School in the 4th round of the 2006 draft. He made his major-league debut in 2011, and went on to pitch 520 2/3 innings for the Rays at the major league level before being placed on the DL to begin the 2015 season. What was then described as right forearm tendinitis was eventually revealed to be a partial tear of his UCL. Cobb had the Tommy John procedure in May of that season and didn’t pitch in the majors again until 2016.

In his first full season back from injury, Cobb posted solid overall numbers. He was typically good at inducing ground balls (47.8% ground ball rate) and limiting walks (2.21 BB/9), and typically lacking in the strikeout department (6.42 K/9). Ultimately, the righty posted an impressive 3.66 ERA, though his 4.24 xFIP suggests he wasn’t quite as good as those results. Still, he accumulated 2.4 fWAR and has lined himself up for a nice payday should he choose to venture into free agency.

Cobb features a sinking fastball on which he averages 92.1 MPH, which he throws about 47% of the time. That pitch has been great for him, saving an estimated 13.1 runs in 2017 by measure of Fangraphs’ Pitch Type Linear Weights. His best secondary pitch is his curveball, and he mixes in a two-seamer every now and then. His ability to induce ground balls with those pitches will certainly be in demand this winter.

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Sunday

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The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. Here’s some QO-related chatter that’s been floating around on Sunday.

  • The Rays are likely to issue a qualifying offer to right-handed starter Alex Cobb, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Cobb pitched to a 3.66 ERA with a typically strong 47.8% ground ball rate across 179 1/3 innings in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old started 29 games in 2017. The MLBTR team predicts a four-year, $48MM contract for him.
  • Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago opines that the Cubs will issue a QO to both Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis (something that has long seemed likely). He further speculates that the (unlikely) event of Davis accepting the offer would represent an ideal scenario for the Cubs, who don’t have an obvious replacement for him in the closer role aside from perhaps Carl Edwards Jr., who struggled with command in the playoffs and has only 107 innings of major league experience. Both Arrieta and Davis rank among MLBTR’s top ten free agents.
  • The Rangers are not expected to extend a QO to right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter. He notes that the Rangers were considering the move, but that certainly would have been surprising given Cashner’s injury history and poor peripherals. Though he managed a 3.40 ERA across 166 2/3 innings in 2017, Cashner struck out an alarmingly low 4.64 batters per nine innings. He seemingly benefitted from some BABIP- and homer/fly ball rate-related luck as evidenced by his 5.30 xFIP. The MLBTR team predicted a 2-year, $20MM contract for Cashner, ranking him as the 27th-best free agent available.

Trade Candidates For Payroll-Cutting Rays

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  • In the wake of their fourth straight sub-.500 season, the Rays are tasked with trying to improve while reducing their already minuscule payroll, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays opened 2017 with a payroll of around $70MM, the second-lowest mark in baseball, and ended it near $80MM. There will be cost-cutting trades this offseason, suggests Topkin, who points to righty Jake Odorizzi, left fielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson, closer Alex Colome and infielder Brad Miller as potential movers. Those four are projected to earn around $23MM through arbitration in 2018.

Brad Miller Undergoes Core Muscle Surgery

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Rays infielder Brad Miller has undergone core muscle surgery, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The procedure addressed nagging problems in his groin and lower abdominals, per the report.

Miller, 28, was quite productive in 2016, when he swatted thirty long balls in 601 plate appearances — though he also carried a meager .304 OBP. But he failed to follow up on that in 2017, slashing just .201/.327/.337 with nine dingers over 407 trips to the plate. Oddly, despite the power drop, Miller doubled his walk rate as against the prior season.

It seems fair to attribute at least some of Miller’s struggles to the injuries that have now been addressed surgically. He missed time on the DL and says he “was obviously laboring for a while and didn’t feel right.” Miller will only need about six weeks to recover from the procedure, so he’s expected to be fully ready for Spring Training.

The question remains, though, whether the Rays will be the organization to take a shot on a rebound — or, perhaps, a dream scenario where Miller fuses power and patience while also delivering palatable defense at second base. MLBTR projects Miller to earn $4.4MM in his second (and second-to-last) season of arbitration eligibility. That’s not too steep a salary, but is fairly hefty for a Rays team that has eyes on trimming an already meager payroll.

Rays Exercise Club Option Over Nathan Eovaldi

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The Rays have exercised their 2018 club option over righty Nathan Eovaldi, the team announced (h/t Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, on Twitter). He’ll earn $2MM for the coming season.

Eovaldi signed on with Tampa Bay in a contract that promised him $2MM last year just to rehab. The Rays, of course, hoped he’d show enough in working back from Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery that he could be retained for a cheap price for the season to come, and that’s just what is now going to take place.

All indications are that Eovaldi has shown signs of rounding back into form while building back arm strength this year. Indeed, there was even some suggestion he might try to return to action late in the 2017 season, though that did not come to pass.

Tampa Bay seems inclined to give Eovaldi a shot at earning a rotation spot. He has had success at times in that role previously, though never as much as his raw talent might suggest. Most recently, Eovaldi provided the Yankees with 124 2/3 innings of 4.76 ERA pitching in 2016. While homers were a big problem, he did manage career highs in fastball velocity (97 mph), swinging-strike rate (9.3%), and groundball rate (49.6%).

Latest On Rays’ Pursuit Of New Stadium

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The Rays’ quest for a new stadium has been an ongoing saga for years, but things took a small step forward yesterday, as Jeff Patterson of WFLA Channel 8 in Tampa reported that Hillsborough County Commissioner Ken Hagan announced a proposed site for a new stadium. The new Ybor City site would move the Rays from St. Petersburg to Tampa, hopefully leading to an increase in attendance thanks to a more desirable location and a newer facility.

“This is another important step in the site selection process, and we are grateful for the time and attention that went into making it a possibility,” said Rays president Brian Auld in an official statement on the proposal. “We look forward to getting to work evaluating this option, along with those in Pinellas County, including the Tropicana Field site, as a potential future home for Rays baseball in Tampa Bay for years to come.”

Certainly, the proposed site doesn’t guarantee that the Rays will break ground on a new Ybor City facility just yet. To the contrary, as Auld indicated in his comment, the Rays are only just scratching the surface of evaluating the newly proposed construction site, and they’ll likely do the same with other potential locations before ultimately determining a course of action. There’s also the matter of the Rays’ current lease at Tropicana Field, which reportedly runs through the 2027 season. Terminating that lease early will come with its own set of financial repercussions, including millions of dollars that’ll need to be paid out to the city of St. Petersburg as well as the forfeiture of a 50 percent share of development rights at the Tropicana Field site, as WFLA’s Mark Douglas writes.

The level of effort required to navigate such a large business endeavor, of course, is enormous, and with that in mind the Rays are set to shuffle their front office mix, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. President of baseball operations Matt Silverman is set to take on a broader role and serve as a co-president with Auld, per Topkin’s report, moving further away from the baseball operations mix and into a more overarching role with the front office. Silverman’s roots with the Rays are on the business side of the operation, and he’d previously been an integral part of the stadium talks before shifting to president of baseball operations in the wake of Andrew Friedman’s departure.

Silverman’s new title isn’t yet clear (nor are any other new titles that may emerge), but the change may not be as drastic as one would expect upon first glance. Despite keeping the “president of baseball ops” title, Silverman effectively handed day-to-day oversight of baseball operations over to Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom a year ago. Both vice presidents at the time, Neander was named the team’s new general manager, while Bloom was bumped to senior vice president of baseball operations.

As such, a shift of Silverman’s focus more to the business side of the equation doesn’t necessarily reflect a seismic shift in the team’s operational hierarchy, though it’s possible that he’ll have less overall say in baseball decision-making, with Neander and Bloom factoring even more heavily into those processes.

Rays Hire Matt Quatraro As Third Base Coach

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  • The Rays have hired Matt Quatraro as their new third-base coach, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (all links to Twitter). He had served as the Indians’ assistant hitting coach, making him the latest Cleveland coach to head elsewhere. Topkin adds that the Rays plan to hire a first base coach, with Rocco Baldelli moving to a somewhat different role on the staff.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

Despite making a number of additions prior to the July 31 trade deadline, the Rays faded down the stretch, falling short of both a wild card berth and even a winning record.  The club now faces another offseason of adding low-cost pieces while facing hard decisions about trading pricier talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $81MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023, $5MM buyout)
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $47MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023, $2.5MM buyout)
  • Chris Archer, SP: $13.75MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
  • Wilson Ramos, C: $10.5MM through 2018

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]

The Rays haven’t had a winning record since 2013, but with Evan Longoria, Chris Archer and (most recently) Kevin Kiermaier locked up on long-term deals, it seems as though the club will continue to try and contend rather than explore a full teardown and rebuilding process.  That being said, Tampa could very well duplicate its approach from last offseason — aiming to add, but prepared to shift course and start selling if an offer too good to refuse comes in for Archer or Jake Odorizzi.

These are the financial realities for the small-market Rays, whose quest for a new ballpark isn’t any closer to resolution, and whose revenues took an extra hit in 2017.  While owner Stuart Sternberg recently stated that a total payroll slash wasn’t likely to happen, “the first move is down” for the 2018 payroll.

Salaries for Longoria, Archer, Kiermaier and Wilson Ramos total $36.25MM next year, while the Rays are projected to spend $41.4MM on a large arbitration class of 13 players.  Even with a couple of obvious non-tenders, those modest savings would be wiped out by Nathan Eovaldi’s $2MM club option, which is likely to be picked up as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery.  That works out to a payroll north of the $77MM mark, which is already higher than any Opening Day payroll figure in franchise history.

The most obvious candidates for trades are the more expensive names within that arbitration class — Odorizzi ($6.5MM), Corey Dickerson ($6.4MM), Alex Colome ($5.5MM), Adeiny Hechavarria ($5MM) and Brad Miller ($4.4MM).  It would be surprising if all five of these players were wearing Rays uniforms in April, though they also carry their share of warning signs for potential trade suitors.  Hechavarria has an excellent glove but is not a very productive hitter; Colome saw his strikeout rate drop and both his contact and hard-hit ball rates rise; injuries contributed to Odorizzi and Miller delivering replacement-level seasons; and Dickerson’s bat went ice-cold after a strong first half.

Odorizzi’s down year is the biggest concern, as it both lowered his asking price in trades and also gave the Rays a question mark heading into next year’s rotation if the righty is kept.  Alex Cobb is a virtual certainty to leave in free agency, whether or not the team issues him a qualifying offer. (There are indications that’s the intention, though putting $17.4MM on the table for one year of Cobb may just be too great a risk, particularly after Jeremy Hellickson took the Phillies’ QO last year.)  Cobb’s departure would increase Odorizzi’s importance in next year’s rotation.  The starting four looks to be Archer, Odorizzi, Blake Snell and Jake Faria, with Matt Andriese, Eovaldi and top prospect Brent Honeywell all in the mix for the fifth starter’s job.  Jose De Leon and Taylor Guerrieri will be at Triple-A but are coming off injury-plagued 2017 seasons, so Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos are currently the top minor league depth options.

There’s enough depth here that the Rays could feel comfortable about their pitching even in the event of an Odorizzi trade, provided they get some injury luck and Snell/Faria both continue to develop as reliable-or-better big league arms.  Andriese could also be shopped, though a hip injury limited him to 86 IP last year, and the Rays likely aren’t keen on selling low on a pitcher with four years of team control.

The biggest move, of course, would be an Archer trade.  The ace right-hander also comes with up to four years of his control via the club options on his team-friendly contract, and he only reinforced his credentials by delivering more strong numbers in 2017.  Teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Braves and Astros have all been linked to Archer in the past and they (and others) are sure to check in with Tampa’s front office about the righty’s availability.  It would take a major blockbuster of a trade package to actually trigger a deal, however, as Archer’s contract makes him particularly important to a low-payroll club like the Rays.

Colome’s asking price wouldn’t be nearly as hefty after a tepid 2017, though his experience as a closer, past dominance, and remaining control would still hold appeal to other organizations. That said, he is another pitcher the Rays would likely prefer to keep since Tommy Hunter, Sergio Romo and Steve Cishek could all leave the bullpen in free agency.  The Rays don’t have a clear heir apparent at closer if Colome is dealt, unless they feel Brad Boxberger is ready to reclaim his old job after two injury-plagued seasons.  After Colome and Boxberger, Tampa Bay probably has enough young arms on hand that they won’t make any hugely notable moves to their relief corps, aside from adding a left-handed pitcher to the mix.  Xavier Cedeno missed much of 2017 with forearm problems and advanced metrics didn’t love Dan Jennings’ work, so the Rays could use some extra southpaw depth in the pen.

Consistent offense continued to be a problem for the Rays in 2017, though full seasons from Ramos and Kiermaier should provide an internal boost to the lineup.  Logan Morrison’s one-year, $2.5MM deal ended up being a terrific bargain for the Rays, but with Morrison’s 38-homer season likely set to land him a multi-year contract elsewhere, the Rays now have a big hole to fill at first base.

This position could also be addressed from within, should Tampa feel that prospect Jake Bauers is ready for the big leagues.  Entrusting a starting role to a rookie who only posted good but not great (.263/.368/.412 over 575 PA) Triple-A numbers would be a bold move, so the Rays could sign a veteran right-handed hitting first baseman like Mike Napoli, Danny Valencia or perhaps even Jose Bautista as a platoon partner.

Alternatively, the Rays could shift Miller back to first base if they feel Bauers needs more seasoning.  All of Miller’s 303 career innings as a first baseman came in 2016, when he also enjoyed a breakout year at the plate, and it’s at least possible that playing a less-demanding defensive position contributed to Miller’s performance.  Metrics such as UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved indicated that Miller was also a below-average defender at first base, though that would be less of a problem than his subpar glovework at second base.

Then again, it’s a question as to whether Miller is in the Rays’ plans at all given his -0.1 fWAR performance last season.  A non-tender doesn’t seem likely (it would be hard for the offense-starved Rays to walk away from a player who hit 30 homers in 2016) but Miller is likely to be shopped this winter thanks to his significant arbitration number.

The Rays could again use Miller at second base if they can live with his defense, though options abound in the middle infield.  Unlike with Miller, the Rays know what they’re getting in Hechavarria, whose $5MM projected salary comes with the promise of an outstanding shortstop glove.  Retaining Hechavarria is probably the safest bet since star prospect Willy Adames has yet to debut in the majors and former shortstop-of-the-future Matt Duffy is a wild card after missing all of 2017 due to complications from heel surgery.  Adames and Duffy could factor into the second base picture, however, if Miller is traded or shifted to first.

Dickerson has provided the Rays with capable defense over his two seasons with the team, though he’ll need enough DH time that left field looks like an area of need.  Mallex Smith will return as the fourth outfielder but doesn’t have the bat for such a significant role, so Tampa will likely explore veteran outfielders that could be had on a short-term deal, akin to the one-year, $5MM contract with Colby Rasmus from last winter.  If the Rays were willing to spend a bit more, a versatile player like Howie Kendrick could be a nice fit as a right-handed bat capable of spot duty in left field, second and first base.

Speaking of versatility, it’s worth noting that the Rays have a “sincere” interest in Shohei Otani, which perhaps implies more than the standard due diligence that every team is undoubtedly doing on the 23-year-old two-way star.  Otani’s apparent disinterest in immediate salary riches helps the Rays’ case, though they almost surely wouldn’t be able to offer him a truly massive extension after he has spent enough time in North America for such a deal to pass muster with the league.  It can’t be understated what a franchise-altering addition Otani would be, though it’s safe to call the Rays a longshot suitor at best.

After four straight losing seasons, the Rays are still looking for those missing pieces to their roster puzzle, as well as hoping that they can finally get a year where all their key players are both healthy and productive at the same time.  The emergence of players like Snell, Faria, Duffy, Honeywell, Adames and Bauers as productive regulars would be an enormous boost for a Rays team that relies on young talent, though some type of proven veteran additions will be necessary to get the club back over the .500 mark.

Jake Odorizzi Is Rays' Most Likely Trade Candidate

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Yankees hitters looked helpless against Astros pitchers Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday, and part of the credit for that goes to Houston’s reliance on analytics, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic explains (subscription required and recommended). New York’s fastball-hitting offense had its way at times during a three-game home romp over Houston in the middle of the series, prompting the Astros’ analytics department to suggest the team’s pitchers throw more breaking balls. Morton and McCullers did just that in a 4-0 victory on Saturday, combining for 62 curveballs on 108 pitches. Incredibly, McCullers finished the game with 24 curves in a row to cap off four dominant innings. Afterward, pitching coach Brent Strom told Rosenthal: “I’ve got to hand this to our analytics people. “They said, ’Listen, this is where we’re making our mistakes. We need to throw as many curveballs as possible. This is a good fastball-hitting team.'”

  • Left-hander CC Sabathia, the losing pitcher in Game 7 of the ALCS, made it clear to reporters on Saturday that his preference is to continue with the Yankees – not depart in free agency – per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. “This is where I want to play,” said the 37-year-old Sabathia, who has revived his career over the past couple seasons and is fresh off a four-start playoff run in which he pitched to a 2.37 ERA across 19 innings. The 2017 season was the ninth with the Yankees for Sabathia, who just wrapped up the five-year, $142MM extension he signed in 2011.
  • The Rays should be open to trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson and second baseman Brad Miller during the offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines. All four players will go through arbitration in the winter, with Odorizzi projected to end up with the highest salary ($6.5MM). He’s also the player the Rays are most likely to trade, according to Topkin. Odorizzi, 27, is coming off a down season, but his impressive track record and two remaining years of affordable team control could lead to plenty of interest from starter-needy clubs.
  • Adding more left-handed hitters to balance out a righty-heavy lineup will be one of the Orioles’ most important offseason challenges, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes. The O’s projected lineup for 2018 includes just two lefty-swingers, first baseman Chris Davis and catcher Chance Sisco. Another could come in the form of an outfielder, suggests Encina, who names Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson as a few of several potential targets in free agency.
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