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Padres To Acquire Jason Adam From Rays

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The Padres acquired right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The Padres are sending righty Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez to Tampa. The Friars designated right-hander Glenn Otto for assignment to open a roster spot while the Rays reinstated Jeffrey Springs from the 60-day injured list to take Adam’s spot.

Like so many other players before him, Adam bounced around the league before finally becoming his best self in Tampa. He was drafted by the Royals back in 2010 and subsequently spent time in several organizations, including the Padres, as well as the Twins, Blue Jays and Cubs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after 2021, at that point sitting on a 4.71 earned run average through 78 1/3 major league innings. He had struck out 27.9% of batters faced but also given out walks at a high rate of 11.4%.

The Rays signed him going into 2022 and he has taken his game to another level since then. He made 170 appearances as a Ray with a 2.30 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has 24 saves and 51 holds in that time. That includes 47 appearances this year with a 2.49 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is a few ticks below recent years but his 47.3% ground ball rate is a personal best.

All contending clubs are looking to bolster their bullpens at this time of year and that’s especially true of the Padres. Their relief corps has a combined ERA of 4.19, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They’ve received good results from Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and others but guys like Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have struggled, with Peralta currently on the injured list.

Adding Adam and his skills to that relief group is understandably appealing, as is his modest salary. Though he turns 33 years old next month, his long journey to being established at the major league level has led to him having a delayed path to notable earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2023 as a Super Two player and made $1.775MM last year, getting a modest bump to $2.7MM here in 2024. He is eligible for two more arbitration seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

The Padres had to make significant salary cuts in the offseason, which led to Juan Soto getting trading to the Yankees. They have still attempted to field a competitive team here in 2024 and have succeeded. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak that has bumped them to 57-50 and possession of a National League Wild Card spot. But they seemingly want to avoid the competitive balance tax this year and are currently on pace to do so.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number at $225MM, roughly $12MM away from the $237MM base threshold. That appears to give them a decent amount of wiggle room but that’s an unofficial estimate. Adam has less than a $1MM left to be paid out this year, so he will only marginally increase San Diego’s CBT number, perhaps leaving the front office room for further moves.

The Rays aren’t buried in the standings but have decided to do some selling this year anyway, seemingly due to a combination of strong depth as well as a seller’s market. Their record is currently 53-52, just four games out of a playoff spot, yet they have already traded multiple established big leaguers for younger talent. They have sent Zach Eflin to the Orioles, Aaron Civale to the Brewers, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners and now Adam to the Padres.

They still have a chance to compete down the stretch but have not been shy about making these kinds of moves, seemingly content to add some young talent and save some money while trying to backfill the lost talent from within their own system. With Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen nearing returns from elbow surgeries, they had readymade rotation replacements. Baz came up to take Civale’s spot and Springs is about to do the same for Eflin. Arozerena’s playing time can be given to guys like Richie Palacios or Jonny DeLuca, while the club always has intriguing bullpen arms on hand and can likely put together a solid relief corps even without Adam.

Lesko, 20, is viewed as the most intriguing part of their return in this deal. The Padres selected him 15th overall in 2022 and he has received plenty of love from prospect evaluators since then. His time in the minors has seen him miss plenty of bats but also the strike zone. He has thrown 69 2/3 innings over 16 starts at the High-A level this year with a 6.46 ERA. He has struck out 25% of batters faced but walked 16.5% of them.

Despite the control issues, he is still considered one of the better prospects in the league. FanGraphs currently lists him #88 overall and MLB Pipeline #76. Baseball America had him #38 overall coming into the year but he’s no longer on the top 100 and was recently bumped to #5 in the Padres’ system. Perhaps the Padres are moving on from a prospect that they have soured on or they have simply accepted this as the price of getting a quality reliever who is affordable and controllable. Either way, Tampa has a strong reputation of getting the best out of players and could perhaps get Lesko back on track in the years to come.

Bush is naturally the son of former big leaguer Homer Bush. The younger Bush was a fourth-round pick of the Padres last year. He is a speed-and-defense specialist with a contact-based approach at the plate. In 130 minor league games, he has seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .290/.383/.379. He also has 65 steals in 76 tries. BA currently ranks him 12th in the Padres’ system.

Gonzalez was a third-round pick last year and BA currently ranks him #8 in the system. He is only hitting .205/.322/.230 in Single-A this year but is projected to potentially be a two-way player from behind the plate someday.

Otto was claimed off waivers in September. He began the year on the injured list with a right teres major strain. He began a rehab assignment in early June and was optioned later that month. He has tossed 15 1/3 innings in the minors this year with a 7.63 ERA. The Friars will have a few days to consider trades or put him on waivers.

The Padres have made a notable upgrade to their bullpen for the stretch run but surely aren’t done. Bob Nightengale of USA reports on X that they are now going to turn their attentions to the rotation. The Rays have already made a number of future-focused moves but could perhaps consider more, with players like Pete Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz candidates to go in the coming days.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Adam was heading to the Padres on X. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported Lesko’s inclusion on X. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported on X that Bush and a third prospect were also going to Tampa. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first relayed Gonzalez on X.

Dodgers Trade Rumors: Flaherty, Finnegan, Paredes, Hoerner, Rengifo

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The Dodgers are expected to be very active prior to the July 30 trade deadline, as while Los Angeles still has the fourth-best winning percentage (.585) in baseball, the team is just 10-12 in its last 22 games.  Injuries all over the roster have left L.A. with plenty of holes to fill, and the Dodgers are therefore casting a wide berth in exploring possible deadline pickups.

With starting pitching a particular need, Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty is a Dodgers target, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  Nationals reliever Kyle Finnegan, Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Angels infielder Luis Rengifo have also received consideration, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, since the Dodgers are trying to shore up both their bullpen and the infield.

Since Flaherty is a free agent after the season, he is one of the more obvious rental candidates available considering that the Tigers (despite some good recent play) are still only 52-54 and more on the outskirts of the AL wild card race.  As noted by both Petzold and Nightengale, Detroit’s asking price for Flaherty is both high and somewhat straight-forward — teams will have to offer the Tigers something they deem more valuable than the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive this winter if Flaherty rejects the team’s inevitable qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

The Dodgers’ rotation needs have somewhat lessened now that Tyler Glasnow is back from the injured list and Clayton Kershaw has made his season debut, but L.A. still has a whopping nine pitchers on the IL.  Walker Buehler is on a Triple-A rehab assignment, though Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s timetable is still unclear, and Yamamoto will be out until late August at the earliest as he recovers from a triceps injury.  Los Angeles did feel comfortable enough in its pitching depth to deal James Paxton to the Red Sox, but Flaherty is more of a front-of-the-rotation type that could conceivably start a playoff game.

Likewise, Finnegan could slot right into what has become something of a fluid late-game mix.  Evan Phillips is still ostensibly the Dodgers’ top choice as closer, though his recent struggles have brought Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen into the picture as save candidates.  Manager Dave Roberts recently stated that Phillips could be deployed in any high-leverage situation late in games rather than specifically just the ninth inning, which opens the door for L.A. to solidify things by landing another experienced closer like Finnegan.

Since Finnegan is arbitration-controlled through 2025, he’d also be able to help Los Angeles next season in addition to this year’s playoff run.  This extra year of control means that the Nationals would get an even nicer return by moving him at the deadline, though D.C. might consider waiting until the offseason to gauge offers if nobody steps up with an acceptable enough trade package by Tuesday.  The Nats already got a good score in moving Hunter Harvey to the Royals earlier this month, and between the Harvey deal and yesterday’s trade of Jesse Winker to the Mets, Washington is clearly in sell mode.

The infield targets all come with varying degrees of control beyond just the 2024 season.  Rengifo is arb-controlled through 2025, Paredes is arb-controlled through 2027 as a Super Two player, and Hoerner is signed through 2026 via the three-year, $35MM deal he inked prior to the 2023 season.  That extension started this year, so Hoerner is owed roughly $3.9MM in salary for the rest of 2024, as well as $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026.

Sticking with Hoerner, that is a decent-sized price tag for a Dodgers team already far over the highest tier of luxury tax penalization.  In terms of both the actual salary and the added tax hit, Hoerner’s dollar value would come at more than double the size of his contract, as the Dodgers have an additional repeater penalty for exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax in each of the previous three seasons.  This cost could be reduced if Los Angeles sent another contract to Chicago in return, or the Cubs could absorb more of Hoerner’s deal if the Dodgers improved the value of the trade package.

The latter scenario could involve better prospects, or perhaps more win-now types of players for a Cubs team that is still aiming to contend in 2025, even if 2024 is looking like a wash.  Moving a reliable everyday player like Hoerner would be a bold move for the Cubs, yet for a team that has a good amount of middle infield depth, trading Hoerner could allow Chicago to upgrade in other areas.

A defensive standout at either middle infield position, Hoerner could give the Dodgers an answer to their shortstop woes, as both Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas are injured.  Installing Hoerner at short would allow Betts to play second base (or even move back to the outfield) when he is healthy, and Rojas and Gavin Lux would then assume depth roles.  With Hoerner locked up through 2026, the Dodgers could then explore returning Betts back to right field altogether, or perhaps at least limit him to second base when he does get infield work.

Rengifo is a utility player who can play all over the diamond, though he doesn’t offer strong glovework at any position.  The switch-hitter does bring more offense than Hoerner, and Rengifo has returned in seemingly good health after a three-week absence due to wrist inflammation.  Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a Rengifo trade for the Dodgers would be the fact that the two L.A. teams are infrequent trade partners.  Ironically, Rengifo was part of an infamously scuttled trade between the Angels and Dodgers in February 2020, which reportedly left Halos owner Arte Moreno upset at the idea of ever again doing business with his local rivals.

Conversely, the Rays and Dodgers have lined up on several trades over the years, including the blockbuster deal that sent Glasnow to Los Angeles just this past offseason.  This could help the Dodgers in working out a Paredes trade, who would likely play third base with Max Muncy’s recovery from an oblique strain still up in the air.  Since Muncy is signed through at least 2025 and Paredes would be a longer-term addition, one of the two could likely be moved to second base in 2025, which also helps the Dodgers’ middle infield picture to some extent.  The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are among the other teams who have been linked to Paredes in recent rumors, though intriguingly, Nightengale writes that the Yankees and Dodgers are in a “bidding war” over the All-Star infielder.

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

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The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.  The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield.  An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months.  Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign.  Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field.  Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field.  As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade.  “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall.  This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season.  This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM.  RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market.  The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance.  Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday.  Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.  While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

Rangers Interested In Isaac Paredes

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With Randy Arozarena and Zach Eflin traded in the last two days, the Rays have already gotten a jump on retooling and cutting payroll even as the team still has a respective .500 (52-52) record.  Isaac Paredes is another name who has gotten a lot of attention in the trade market, and ESPN’s Buster Olney (via X) reports that the Rangers have talked to the Rays about Paredes, in addition to their previously reported interest in Yandy Diaz.

Both the Astros and Mariners have also been linked to Paredes’ market, so the All-Star infielder is generating a lot of interest within the AL West alone now that the Rangers have also joined the mix.  It isn’t surprising that clubs around baseball are checking in on a player with Paredes’ combination of age (25), affordability, team control, and obvious ability on the diamond.

Paredes has blossomed over his three seasons in Tampa, including his 16 homers and .249/.356/.441 slash line over 421 plate appearances this season.  The translates to a 132 wRC+, only a touch below Paredes’ 137 mark over 571 PA in 2023.  Beyond the offense, Paredes has primarily played third base with generally around average fielding grades depending on your metric of choice, but he has also gotten a good chunk of time at first base and (prior to this season) time at second base.

It is safe to say Paredes would primarily stick to the hot corner if he landed with the Rangers, as regular third baseman Josh Jung has missed almost the entire season due to wrist surgery, and then a subsequent shutdown from a minor league rehab assignment due to continued soreness.  Jung restarted a new rehab stint just yesterday (going 1-for-3 with Double-A Frisco) but is still likely a week or two away from rejoining the lineup, given how he’ll need some space to get his timing back after such a long layoff.

Josh Smith’s excellent play at third base has helped Texas manage Jung’s absence to some extent, and the left-handed hitting Smith pairs nicely with the right-handed hitting Paredes.  That same platoon factor could give Paredes some time at first base when a left-handed starter is on the mound, thus giving the Rangers opportunity to sit Nathaniel Lowe.  Even if Jung did return relatively soon in August, that still doesn’t create any real playing time crunch, since the Rangers could rotate any of these players into the DH spot to everyone playing on more or less an everyday basis.

Paredes is a Super Two player, and is earning $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration-eligible seasons.  Adding Paredes would therefore bring another long-term option into a Rangers lineup that already has a lot of pieces locked into place.  Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are signed to mega-deals, while Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim are arb-controlled through 2026.  Leody Taveras is arb-controlled through 2027, Jung and Smith through 2028, and star prospects Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are both still rookies.  Justin Foscue is another notable prospect in his rookie season, and shortstop prospect Sebastian Walcott is at least a couple of years away from his MLB debut but still falls within this broader timeframe.

If the Rangers feel this creates any kind of a longjam or if they feel Jung is making good progress, they could pursue a rental player type of infielder instead of Paredes.  Such a move would also naturally come at a much lower prospect cost, as Tampa Bay is surely demanding a ton in any Paredes trade.  Given his years of control and the fact that the Rays are planning to contend again in 2025, Tampa isn’t facing any pressure to trade Paredes immediately, as even a healthy arb raise this winter should still fit him comfortably within the Rays’ limited payroll parameters.

Orioles Acquire Zach Eflin From Rays

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The Orioles have acquired right-hander Zach Eflin and cash considerations from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. Going to the Rays are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment by the O’s to get Eflin onto their roster.

Eflin, 30, has been a solid big league starter for many years, including his time with the Phillies and with the Rays as well. Since the start of 2018, he has allowed 4.01 earned runs per nine frames in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground ball rate in that time were both close to league averages and he also limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Here in 2024, he has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts. His strikeout rate is down to 18.9% but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 2.8%.

About a month ago, it was reported that the Rays could be looking to make some starting pitchers available, even if they weren’t sellers in the classically understood definition. They had a rotation consisting of Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Tyler Alexander on hand as a depth option. On top of that group, they had Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen each getting back to health after significant elbow surgeries.

As the overall group became healthier, the Rays were seemingly open to subtracting, as doing so could allow them to address other parts of their roster, save some money, bolster their farm system or some combination of those goals, and still keep a fairly healthy rotation for the stretch run. The most logical candidates for such a trade were Civale, Littell and Eflin as the three of them were slated for free agency after 2025. Civale was flipped to the Brewers a few weeks ago and replaced in the rotation by Baz, with Eflin now moving on as well.

The Baltimore rotation has been in the opposite position, as it’s been getting less healthy as the season has gone along. Each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required UCL surgery earlier this year, putting them out of action for the remainder of the campaign.

They still had a strong front two in the rotation with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but there’s been far less certainty behind them. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott were each given brief auditions but weren’t impressive. Dean Kremer has a serviceable 4.43 ERA but might be lucky to have that, considering his .227 batting average on balls in play. Albert Suárez has a 3.48 ERA but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is back in the majors for the first time since 2017. Cole Irvin has been moved between the rotation and bullpen due to inconsistent results. Bolstering that group is plenty sensible and it now looks much stronger with Eflin in it. Burnes is set to reach free agency after this season, so acquiring Eflin is also a notable move for Baltimore’s 2025 rotation.

In addition to the situation in Tampa’s rotation, an Eflin deal has seemed likely due to his contract. He signed a three-year pact with the Rays going into 2023, with the $40MM guarantee being backloaded. He was paid $11MM last year and is making that same amount here in 2024, with an $18MM salary for 2025. The Rays often trade their players before they reach free agency and slinking away from that large commitment in the final season of the deal always seemed possible.

The Rays are covering Eflin’s $1MM trade bonus but the O’s are otherwise absorbing the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, both on X. That’s perhaps a notable development as the Orioles haven’t spent much money since their last competitive window closed. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had nine-figure Opening Day payrolls from 2014 to 2018 but haven’t been back to that level since then.

Some of the light spending has been due to the club rebuilding in recent years but their return to contention hasn’t led to a loosening of the pursestrings. The O’s haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in early 2018 and the largest guarantee of any kind given out since then is the $13MM given to Craig Kimbrel on his one-year deal.

David Rubenstein purchased the franchise from the Angelos family earlier this year and it has been hoped that the ownership change would also lead to a change in spending habits. Perhaps the fact that the O’s are taking on an $18MM salary for next year is a sign that Baltimore will be operating differently from now on.

Turning to Tampa’s end of the deal, they are presumably saving at least a little bit of money while also adding three fresh prospects to their system. Baseball America just updated their list of the top 30 Orioles’ farmhands, with Horvath in the #13 slot and Baumeister at #18, through Etzel doesn’t crack the list.

Horwath, 23, was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .232/.328/.417 in High-A this year for a 110 wRC+. He’s also stolen 26 bases while playing second base, third base and the outfield.

Baumeister, 22, was taken with a competitive balance pick last year, 63rd overall. He has made 18 starts at the High-A level this year with a 3.06 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate, though a 14% walk rate. Etzel was a tenth-round pick last year and has slashed .289/.363/.445 for a 126 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A this year.

The O’s are 61-41 and tied for the best record in the American League but were heading into the stretch run with a flimsy rotation. They’ve strengthened it with a solid veteran, both for this year and next. They have subtracted from their farm system but it’s considered one of the best in the league and they held onto their top guys. Though the rotation is better than it was before this trade, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add another arm. It’s also been reported that they could trade someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins, though perhaps today’s trade of Austin Hays to the Phillies makes that less likely.

The Rays have added to their pool of young talent while shedding some payroll commitments, but still go into the final months of this season with a fairly solid rotation. Perhaps they are still hoping to compete but it also seems a more significant sell-off is in the cards. They traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners yesterday and it’s possible that guys like Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks and others could be available in the coming days.

Prior to this trade, Eflin was also connected to clubs like the Astros, Atlanta and the Cardinals. Those clubs will now have to look elsewhere for rotation upgrades in the coming days. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and others have been in rumors with varying degrees of availability.

Nittoli was just added to Baltimore’s roster less than two weeks ago and they will now have to either trade him or put him on waivers in the coming days. He has a 1.50 ERA in 12 big league innings this year between the O’s and the A’s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that the O’s would be getting Eflin. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the prospects going back to the Rays on X. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relayed Nittoli’s DFA on X.

Rays Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Theo Gillen

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The Rays agreed with first-round pick Theo Gillen on a $4.3729MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s full slot value associated with the 18th overall selection.

A 6’3″ infielder from a Texas high school, Gillen ranked as a middle of the first round talent by most pre-draft evaluations. FanGraphs slotted him as a top 10 player in the class and graded him as the top prep player on the board. FanGraphs lauds Gillen’s hit/power combination and gives him a chance to stick at second base or in center field. While evaluators broadly praise the left-handed hitter’s overall ability, some teams were alarmed by a right shoulder injury that necessitated labrum surgery in 2022.

Gillen ranked 19th on Kiley McDaniel’s board at ESPN, 23rd at Baseball America and 21st on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic. He’d been committed to Texas but instead joins a Rays’ system that should also continue to add talent via trade over the next few days.

Rays Acquire Cole Sulser From Mets

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The Rays announced they’ve acquired reliever Cole Sulser from the Mets for cash and optioned him to Triple-A Durham. Tampa Bay had three openings on the 40-man roster, so no further moves were necessary.

New York had designated Sulser for assignment on Monday as the corresponding move for the signing of catcher Logan Porter. The righty had pitched four times for the Mets since they added him to their 40-man roster in April. He allowed five runs over 4 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts and three walks.

A former Cleveland draftee, Sulser made his major league debut with the Rays back in 2019. Tampa Bay lost him on waivers to Baltimore at the end of that season. The Dartmouth product had one excellent year out of the O’s bullpen in 2021. He turned in a 2.70 ERA across 63 1/3 frames behind a 28.4% strikeout rate. Sulser’s numbers fell off after the Orioles traded him to the Marlins the next winter, though. He has barely pitched in the big leagues since then, logging minimal action for the Diamondbacks and Mets.

The 34-year-old Sulser has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A. He owns a 1.48 earned run average across 30 1/3 innings with New York’s top affiliate. Sulser has fanned an above-average 28.1% of batters faced while issuing walks to a lofty 13.2% of minor league opponents. He’s in his final option year and could get a look in the Tampa Bay bullpen after the deadline, especially if they trade someone like Pete Fairbanks or Jason Adam.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com first reported the Mets were trading Sulser to Tampa Bay for cash.

Rangers Among Clubs With Interest In Yandy Díaz

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Rays infielder Yandy Díaz has been on the restricted list for almost a week while attending to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rays announced that they reinstated him today. They already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so this move brings their count to 38. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed on X earlier that the club was hopeful of Díaz returning tonight. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last night that the Rangers are interested in adding him to their lineup. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says on X that the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are possible suitors, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs have engaged with the Rays.

Díaz, now 32, has been a fixture of the Rays for many years. He came to Tampa from Cleveland heading into 2019 as part of the three-team trade and quickly worked his way into being a regular for the Rays. From the start of 2019 to the present, he has drawn walks in 11.6% of his plate appearances while only striking out 14.5% of the time. His .288/.375/.439 batting line translates to a 133 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% better than league average overall.

That offense is his best attribute. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his third base defense was poorly regarded, though he’s been closer to average at first base and has been more or less permanently moved to that side of the diamond. But the 133 wRC+ that Díaz has put up from 2019 to the present is one of the top 15 marks in baseball among qualified hitters, highlighting that such consistently above-average production is hard to find.

Here in 2024, his season-long stats look mildly disappointing, a .273/.329/.396 line and 111 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a brutal start that he has put behind him. He hit .211/.279/.276 through May 1 but his line of .302/.354/.453 since that time leads to a 134 wRC+, right in line with his overall track record.

The Rays don’t strictly have to move him but their behavior suggests he’s available. Going into 2023, he and the Rays signed an extension that runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He’ll make $10MM next year with the option valued at $12MM.

Tampa could certainly keep him but they have shown, both recently and in the past, that they are generally unafraid to move players nearing free agency. Although they are 52-51 this year and just four games out of a playoff spot, they have already traded Aaron Civale, Phil Maton and Randy Arozarena in recent weeks.

Some recent reporting suggested the Rays were more likely to trade arbitrations players than those signed to long-term deals, but that contradicts their past behavior. Players like Evan Longoria, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot have all signed extensions and then been traded before those contracts ended, so there’s no real reason to believe the Rays won’t be open to trade offers on Díaz.

Doing so wouldn’t even be a signal that the club is giving up on 2024, as players like Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead could fill in at first base. Jonathan Aranda is currently hurt but could be in the mix later. Infielders like Junior Caminero, Austin Shenton and Osleivis Basabe could be called up to fill in elsewhere around the infield. In the long term, Xavier Isaac is a first baseman and considered one of the top 50 prospects in the league, though he’s yet to reach Double-A.

For the Rangers, Rosenthal relays that they are looking for “either a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH or a platoon-neutral right-handed hitter.” Díaz is better against lefties but isn’t a liability without the platoon advantage. He has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws in his career and a 121 wRC+ against righties. It’s a far wider split of 151 and 99 this year, though in a much smaller sample size.

Texas hitters have a collective line of .237/.309/.378 against right-handed pitching, with that line leading to a 93 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven clubs in that split. They have Nathaniel Lowe at first base but don’t really have a regular designated hitter and should be able to fit both him and Díaz into the same lineup.

The Rays and Mariners already lined up on one deal, sending the aforementioned Arozarena to Seattle as the M’s look for more offense. Díaz could further augment their lineup, especially with the struggling Ty France have been recently designated for assignment and leaving an opening at first base. They have plugged Tyler Locklear into that spot but he has only 40 major league plate appearances thus far.

The Astros also cut ties with a struggling first baseman, releasing José Abreu earlier this year. They have mostly used Jon Singleton to fill that hole but he’s hitting just .231/.319/.343 this year for a 93 wRC+.

The Pirates have a bit less of a dire need as they held onto their struggling first baseman and were rewarded with a bounceback. Rowdy Tellez was hitting .177/.239/.223 through the end of May but has a line of .328/.364/.588 since the calendar flipped to June. His season-long line is still subpar thanks to that early slump but the Pirates probably feel less inclined to replaced Tellez on the heels of his hot streak this summer. They have Andrew McCutchen in the designated hitter spot most days, which makes the lineup fit a bit less clean unless they plan on moving on from Tellez, who is a free agent at season’s end.

Both the Astros and Rangers are set to pay the competitive balance tax at season’s end, so they may have to consider the taxes involved in taking on the Díaz contract. The Astros are set to be a first-time payor and have a base rate of 20% but RosterResource has their CBT number at $256MM. Crossing over the $257MM second tier would increase their tax rate to 32% for spending beyond that line. Recent reporting suggested they are trying to move Rafael Montero’s contract to lessen their tax burden but doing so will be difficult given his poor results of late. RosterResource has the Rangers at $249MM but they are set to be a second-time payor and have a base tax rate of 30%.

Mariners Still Active In Trade Market

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The Mariners’ acquisition of Randy Arozarena last night is perhaps the most notable swap of the season thus far, but Seattle isn’t content with that lone acquisition. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the M’s are still talking to other clubs, looking to add another bat and a high-leverage reliever. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times adds some context on the team’s search for bats, reporting that two of the top bats on the market — Oakland’s Brent Rooker and Chicago’s Luis Robert — may not be likely to land in Seattle. The A’s have been reluctant to trade with Seattle, per Jude, while an acquisition of Robert is considered “highly unlikely at this point.”

Both Rooker and Robert would add a controllable, high-end bat to what has been a stagnant Mariners offense. Rooker is arb-eligible for the first time this offseason and controlled three more years. Robert is signed through the 2025 season, and his contract contains a pair of $20MM club options.

The A’s haven’t always been reluctant to deal within the AL West, but the last time they completed a trade with the Mariners came back in 2017, when the two clubs swapped Emilio Pagan for Ryon Healy. In fact, the only trade they’ve made with a division rival in the past three years was this April’s acquisition of righty Brandon Bielak in a deal that sent cash back to the Astros. It’s always possible there’ll be a change in direction, but their once-frequent intra-division trades (e.g. Elvis Andrus, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Jurickson Profar, Pagan, Healy) have dried up in recent years.

With regard to Robert, there’s no intra-division component to be considered, but traction on Robert hasn’t really picked up, it seems. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the White Sox have set a high asking price and haven’t yet seen potential trade partners willing to meet it or even come particularly close.

The mere mention of Rooker and Robert aligns largely with the latest reporting from Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, who suggests that Seattle’s front office has been “aggressive” in trying to add multiple impact bats. Arozarena checks one box, but the Mariners’ lineup could use upgrades at multiple spots.

It’s even possible the M’s and Rays could line up on another deal; Kramer writes that the two teams discussed infielders Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz in the offseason. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the Mariners are again a potential landing spot for Diaz, who is drawing trade interest and was reinstated from the restricted list within the past hour after a week-long absence to tend to an undisclosed family matter.

Like Arozarena, the 32-year-old Diaz got out to a slow start in 2024 but has heated up in recent months. Over his past 280 plate appearances, he’s slashing a robust .302/.354/.453 with seven homers, 16 doubles, a triple and just a 13.9% strikeout rate. He’d give the Mariners an upgrade over the recently designated Ty France and simultaneously accomplish the team’s ongoing goal of reducing their MLB-worst strikeout rate. He’s earning $8MM the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract extension and is owed $10MM in 2025 before the team must decide on a $12MM option for the 2026 season.

Paredes, 25, is arguably one of the most appealing possibilities on the entire trade market. He’s played third base primarily of late, but the versatile infielder can handle all four infield positions and has emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order slugger. Dating back to Opening Day 2023, he’s slashed .250/.353/.469 with 47 homers in 241 games. He’s earning only $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration seasons (as a Super Two player). Paredes’ versatility, productive bat, remaining control and currently affordable price tag could make the prospect cost to acquire him prohibitive, but the Rays are generally open to listen on anyone — and teams have been at least inquiring on Paredes recently.

Mariners Acquire Randy Arozarena

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The Mariners landed a much-needed lineup upgrade on Thursday night. Seattle announced the acquisition of Randy Arozarena from the Rays in exchange for two prospects — outfielder Aidan Smith and right-hander Brody Hopkins — as well as a player to be named later. Seattle had an opening on their 40-man roster after designating Ty France for assignment earlier this week, so no additional move was necessary.

Arozarena had an excellent four-plus year run in Tampa Bay. The Rays acquired him from the Cardinals over the 2019-20 offseason in a deal sending top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis. Arozarena had made a brief MLB debut the prior season, but the 2020 postseason represented his true emergence as a star. He mashed 10 home runs in 20 games, snagging ALCS MVP honors and helping the Rays reach the World Series.

Despite that breakout playoff performance, Arozarena retained rookie eligibility into 2021. He cruised to Rookie of the Year honors behind a .274/.356/.459 slash with 20 homers and stolen bases apiece. That was the first of three straight 20-20 campaigns for the Cuban outfielder. He swiped a career-high 32 bases in ’22 and reached 23 longballs in his first All-Star season last year.

Arozarena appeared in 445 games between 2021-23. He hit .264/.349/.443 with 63 homers in a little more than 1900 plate appearances. That production was 26 percentage points above league average, as measured by wRC+, putting him among the best left fielders in the game. Arozarena’s accolades and consistency led to quickly escalating arbitration salaries. That fueled chatter that the low-payroll Rays could deal him last offseason.

Tampa Bay obviously rebuffed whatever trade offers they received over the winter. They certainly hoped Arozarena would anchor their lineup and help them to a sixth straight playoff berth. He and the team got off to a cold start, however, putting them in a hole from which they’ve never really recovered.

Arozarena hit .158/.257/.312 through the end of May. Some of that was the result of an unsustainably poor .186 average on balls in play, but his strikeout rate spiked to a near-29% rate. Arozarena has turned things around following that disastrous stretch. He’s raking at a .290/.402/.517 clip over the past two months. He has dramatically cut back on the swing-and-miss (down to 19.5%) and slightly increased his walk percentage. The results have been far more in line with his career track record.

In aggregate, Arozarena’s season numbers are pedestrian. He’s hitting .211/.318/.394 with 15 homers through 409 plate appearances. That’s only marginally better than average and would be the worst numbers of his career. Given his overall track record and recent form, it seems fair to view his early-season struggles as more of an anomaly than a worrying trend. Getting anything close to the 29-year-old’s career production would be a major boost for a Seattle lineup that has hit .216/.298/.362 on the year. Only the White Sox have scored fewer runs this month, the biggest reason the M’s have watched their 10-game cushion in the AL West evaporate.

The Mariners are only a half-game ahead of the Rays in the American League standings. It’s rare to see a team trade an impact player to another club that close to them in the playoff picture. Seattle is in better shape than Tampa Bay with regards to snagging a playoff berth, though. The Rays need to jump three teams and erase a four-game deficit in the Wild Card mix. Seattle has a much more realistic path to a division title, as they’re only one game behind the Astros and hold a 1.5 game edge on the third-place Rangers.

While Tampa Bay isn’t going to completely tear things down, they could dangle a number of veteran players in the next few days. The Rays had already moved Aaron Civale and Phil Maton. Dealing Arozarena seems to increase the likelihood of them moving the likes of Brandon Lowe, Yandy Díaz, Zach Eflin and Zack Littell. The Rays could also try to acquire upper minors or MLB-ready talent to aid a long shot playoff push this season and help them for a return to contention next year.

Seattle is in much more traditional buyer mode. Their offense was reeling even before losing Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to injury this week. Arozarena is one of what is likely to be multiple upgrades to their lineup as they try to capitalize on arguably MLB’s best starting rotation. The M’s have relied on another former Ray, Luke Raley, as their primary left fielder. Raley has been an average hitter on the season overall, but he has fanned 22 times with a .119/.224/.254 slash in 67 plate appearances this month.

Arozarena is playing this season on an $8.1MM salary. The M’s take on around $2.83MM for the stretch run, which will push their estimated player payroll to around $143MM (as calculated by RosterResource). Managing partner John Sherman said last month that the front office had the spending capacity to add players at the deadline. They’ve put that into practice here and could do so again before Tuesday. Seattle controls Arozarena through arbitration for two more seasons. He’ll likely earn a boost into the $12-14MM range next year and could approach a $20MM salary for the ’26 campaign.

The Rays, a team that entered the season with a player payroll below $100MM, probably weren’t eager to commit to those 2025-26 salaries. A trade by next offseason always seemed likely. They’re sufficiently intrigued by the prospect package to make the move a few months early, even if it deals a hit to their already slim playoff chances.

Smith and Hopkins each ranked in the middle tiers of a Seattle farm system that is arguably the best in the league. They respectively checked in 14th and 15th on Baseball America’s most recent organizational list. Smith, 20, was a fourth-round pick out of a Texas high school last summer. He signed for an overslot $1.2MM bonus.

The righty-hitting outfielder has posted huge numbers for Low-A Modesto. Smith is hitting .284/.402/.470 with 26 doubles, a triple and nine homers across 358 plate appearances. He’s drawing walks at a massive 14.5% clip against a slightly elevated 24.3% strikeout rate. BA praises Smith’s athleticism and defensive instincts in center field. He has significant power potential in a 6’3″ frame, though there are still questions about his pure hitting ability.

Hopkins was a sixth-round draftee out of Winthrop last year. The 6’4″ righty has been one of the big risers in the system this year. He owns a 2.90 ERA over 83 2/3 innings with Modesto. Hopkins has fanned 26.5% of batters faced while issuing walks at an 11.1% clip. He has hard a tough time throwing strikes dating back to his time in college, but Baseball America credits him with a plus fastball/slider combination from a lower arm angle that’s especially tough for same-handed hitters. He could project to a bullpen future but should continue to start for the time being.

Neither Smith nor Hopkins are close to the majors or to Rule 5 eligibility. Pending the revelation of the PTBNL (who cannot be on Seattle’s 40-man roster or one of this year’s draftees), it’s a future-oriented package for Tampa Bay. The next few days should reveal whether the Rays are focusing their deadline hauls on lower minors prospects or simply liked Smith and Hopkins enough to overlook their distance from the big leagues.

Francys Romero first reported the Rays were trading Arozarena to Seattle. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Rays were acquiring two prospects and a player to be named later. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was first to report that Smith and Hopkins were the prospects.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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