Rays Place Josh Lowe On 10-Day Injured List
The Rays announced that outfielder Josh Lowe has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain, with a retroactive placement date of May 23. In the corresponding move, right-hander Chris Devenski has been activated from the 15-day IL after missing almost exactly a month due to tendinitis in his right knee.
Lowe made an early exit from Wednesday’s game because of what was described at the time as a right side strain, though a follow-up MRI didn’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. Nevertheless, it isn’t surprising that the Rays will be cautious and send Lowe to the IL given that he already missed over a month of the season with another oblique strain. Between that first oblique strain and hip inflammation, Lowe missed most of Spring Training and didn’t make his season debut until May 6.
In between his two trips to the IL, Lowe hit .240/.296/.440 with two homers over 54 plate appearances. This translated to a respectable 108 wRC+, though it was still well below the 131 wRC+ Lowe delivered while hitting .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers and 32 stolen bases over 501 PA in 2023. Tampa Bay was hoping Lowe would again be a big contributor to the lineup, and his absence for much of the season has been a factor in the Rays’ overall underwhelming offensive performance.
Lowe had been receiving regular center-field duty against right-handed pitching, but the combination of Jose Siri and Jonny DeLuca (both right-handed batters) should again handle the bulk of center field work while Lowe is away. Randy Arozarena made a few appearances in center field earlier this week and might again factor into the mix depending on how the Rays shuffle their outfield at-bats. Harold Ramirez‘s playing time diminished when Lowe and Jonathan Aranda returned from the IL, but with Lowe again sidelined, Ramirez might again get some work on the grass if Arozarena is shifted into center field on at least a part-time basis.
Devenski has allowed five homers in only 14 innings pitched this season, resulting in a 7.71 ERA for the veteran reliever. Keeping the ball in the park has long been a challenge for Devenski throughout his career, though he showed some improvement in this regard after he first signed with the Rays last August, while posting a 2.08 ERA in nine appearances and 8 2/3 innings with the team. This was enough for Tampa to re-sign Devenski to a one-year, $1.1MM free agent deal this past winter, but the club hasn’t yet gotten much return on even that modest contract.
Rays Outright Erasmo Ramirez
Rays right-hander Erasmo Ramírez cleared waivers after being designated for assignment on Wednesday. While the veteran had more than enough service time to test free agency, Tampa Bay announced that he accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Durham.
Ramírez seems comfortable with the organization. He played for the Rays between 2015-17 and returned on a minor league deal after being released by the Nationals last summer. Ramírez got to the majors for 15 appearances last season and inked another non-roster contract over the winter. Tampa Bay selected him to the MLB team in April.
The 34-year-old pitched 11 times over the last few weeks. He allowed 10 runs (eight earned) in 16 relief innings. While his 4.50 ERA was reasonable, he managed only a 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and gave up four home runs. Ramírez allowed 6.41 earned runs per nine over 60 1/3 innings a year ago. His most recent MLB success came in 2022, when he provided the Nats 86 1/3 frames of 2.92 ERA ball.
Shortly after Ramíez’s DFA, skipper Kevin Cash lauded the veteran’s professionalism and willingness to handle multiple innings (link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The Rays clearly value him as a depth arm and could call upon him again at some point during the season when they need a long relief option.
Rays Notes: Lowe, Walls, Ramirez
Rays outfielder Josh Lowe has spent most of the season on the injured list after a series of injuries, including oblique, hamstring, and hip issues, prevented him from playing since Spring Training. Things began looking up for the 26-year-old when he was activated off the injured list earlier this month, but he appeared in just 14 games before being pulled from yesterday’s game against the Red Sox due to right side strain.
The strain immediately raised alarms for Lowe and the Rays given his oblique issues earlier this season, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported earlier this evening that while Lowe underwent an MRI exam to determine the severity of the issue, the results were ultimately inconclusive. Topkin suggests that an injured list placement for Lowe remains likely to ensure that he doesn’t aggravate the oblique issue that left him sidelined to open the season, although the club opted to wait until Friday to make a determination about a potential IL stint for the outfielder after Lowe told club officials this morning that he was feeling better today.
The club’s first-round pick in the 2016 draft, Lowe enjoyed a breakout season last year as he posted a strong .292/.335/.500 slash line in 501 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of 131. That figure has dipped to just 108 this season, although a sample size of just 54 plate appearances is hardly meaningful enough to draw conclusions from. Whether Lowe ultimately proves to once again be the impact bat he was for the Rays in 2023 or not, another trip to the injured list would be an unfortunate turn of events for a lineup that’s already without Taylor Walls and has seen key pieces like Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz struggle in the early going this year. Richie Palacios was the club’s primary answer in right field while Lowe was out earlier this year and once again figures to handle the position in his absence should he require a trip to the injured list.
Speaking of Walls, Topkin reports that the infielder could be nearing a notable step forward in his rehab from offseason hip surgery as he’s “tentatively scheduled” to move from the Florida Complex League up to Triple-A Durham on May 30. That’s a fairly quick turnaround, as Walls first began his rehab assignment in Florida on Tuesday according to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker. The Rays have relied on Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario to handle shortstop in Walls’s absence but neither of them have the strong defensive reputation of Walls, whose +38 Defensive Runs Saves from 2021 to 2023 are sixth-best among all big league infielders despite Walls appearing in just 295 games during that time.
In other Rays news, Topkin also relays that club manager Kevin Cash told reporters yesterday that the club remains interested in right-hander Erasmo Ramirez even after designating the righty for assignment yesterday. Cash indicated that the club could look to pursue a reunion with Ramirez in the event that he isn’t claimed by another club while on waivers, noting that the club would “definitely” like him back in the fold.
The 34-year-old hurler first played for the Rays from 2015-2017 as a swing man before returning to the club midseason last year. Ramirez’s second stint with the Rays could’ve gone better, as he allowed a 5.84 ERA while striking out just 18.2% of batters faced in 49 1/3 innings of work across the past two seasons. Even so, he’s just a couple of years removed from a strong 2022 campaign with the Nationals where he pitched to 2.92 ERA in 86 1/3 frames across 60 appearances as a multi-inning relief arm for the club.
Rays Reinstate, Option Shane Baz
The Rays announced that right-hander Shane Baz has been reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A Durham.
Baz, 25 next month, underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2022 and missed the entire 2023 season. The club planned to bring him along slowly here in 2024 after that missed season and he also injured his oblique in March.
He started the season on the IL but has been rehabbing in recent weeks. He’s made four starts for Triple-A Durham this month, logging 12 innings. His most recent outing was yesterday, when he threw 76 pitches over four innings, striking out four, walking three while allowing three hits and one earned run.
The Rays could arguably use him in the majors, given the number of injuries they are dealing with in their rotation. Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all underwent elbow surgery last year and are on the shelf. They have recently been joined by Zach Eflin and Jacob Waguespack.
The current rotation consists of Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot and Tyler Alexander. Both Civale and Alexander are struggling this year, with each having an earned run average over 5.00.
Prior to his surgery, Baz was trending towards making a significant impact for the Rays. He had a 4.02 ERA in his first nine major league starts, striking out 28.9% of batters faced while giving out walks just 7.2% of the time. His work in the minors was even more impressive, as he had a 1.68 ERA at Triple-A in 2021 and 2022, part of the reason why he’s been considered one of the top pitching prospects in the league in recent years.
Given his obvious talent, there’s a case to be made for plugging him into the rotation now. Each of Civale and Alexander have more experience, but they also have options and could be moved to Triple-A, or to a long relief role in the bullpen.
Instead, the Rays have optioned Baz to Triple-A for more work at that level. Perhaps that is a way of monitoring his workload in an environment where wins and losses don’t matter as much, which is a fair consideration. Baz hardly pitched in 2022 either due to elbow issues prior to his Tommy John surgery, so he’s several years removed from a significant innings tally. His career high is the 92 frames he tossed in 2021, which isn’t even that high for a starter and is now a few years in the rear-view mirror. He also hasn’t looked to be in good form on his rehab, with 11 walks to just eight strikeouts and an ERA of 6.00.
Though there’s some logic to keeping him in Durham and monitoring him, it will nonetheless have consequences for Baz. The righty came into this season with two years and 14 days of major league service time. Had he stayed on the active roster or injured list all season, he would have finished this year at 3.014, just enough to automatically qualify for arbitration and to be on track for free agency after 2027. If he ends up spending significant time on optional assignment, he could alter both of those trajectories, though he could still get to arb as a Super Two guy even if he’s shy of the three-year mark.
For now, he’ll continue with whatever plan the Rays have for building him up over the remainder of the season. Perhaps his return to the big leagues will be motivated by an injury to one of his teammates or it could just be based on some sort of workload checklist that Baz has to hit.
Rays To Designate Erasmo Ramirez For Assignment
The Rays are expected to designated right-hander Erasmo Ramirez for assignment, per a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times last night. Ramirez’s departure is set to be the corresponding move for the return of righty Ryan Pepiot from the 15-day injured list ahead of his scheduled start against the Red Sox tonight.
Ramirez, 32, is a veteran of 13 MLB seasons who first made his big league debut back in 2012 as a member of the Mariners. From 2012-18 Ramirez split his time between the starting rotation and the bullpen in both Seattle and Tampa, pitching to a slightly below average 4.36 ERA with a 4.54 FIP across 192 appearances in that seven year stretch, 92 of which were starts. Ramirez posted a 6.7% walk rate during that time while generating grounders at a solid 44.4% clip, but he struck out just 18.5% of batters faced while allowing a hefty 13.8% of his fly balls to leave the yard for home runs. Ramirez’s final season with the Mariners in 2018 was a particularly difficult one, as he was torched to the tune of a 6.50 ERA in ten starts with the club.
Those difficulties led Ramirez to bounce around the league, making brief appearances in Boston, Queens, and Detroit over the next three seasons before finally returning to a regular role with the Nationals in 2022. Ramirez took to the nation’s capital quite well as he posted a strong 2.92 ERA in 86 2/3 innings of work that came almost exclusively out of the bullpen. While the righty’s strikeout rate of 17.6% remained below average, he allowed free passes to just 4% of batters that season while seeing his groundball rate tick up to 45.2%. The showing was enough for the Nationals to sign him to a one-year big league deal worth $1MM for the 2023 campaign, assuring him of a spot in the club’s bullpen entering Spring Training.
Unfortunately, the decision to retain Ramirez didn’t work out, as his peripherals regressed slightly in all areas during the 2023 campaign. Those dips in underlying performance combined with an unusually low 62.2% strand rate left Ramirez’s results on the field to swing from well above average to well below as he allowed a 6.41 ERA with a 5.05 FIP in 60 1/3 innings of work split between the Nationals and the Rays, the latter of whom signed the righty to a minor league deal midseason after he was released by Washington.
Ramirez continued his second stint in Tampa by re-signing with the club on a minor league deal this past offseason and was selected to the roster in mid-April, but the 34-year-old has looked unimpressive in ten appearances. He’s allowed a 4.20 ERA with a whopping 6.08 in 15 innings of work while striking out just 13.6% of batters faced, walking an elevated 9.1%, and generating groundballs just 38.1% of the time. Once Ramirez is officially DFA’d, the Rays will have one week to either trade Ramirez or attempt to pass him through waivers, although the righty has more than enough service time to reject outright waivers and test free agency should he go unclaimed.
Rays Place Zach Eflin On Injured List
The Rays announced a few transactions before this evening’s game against the Red Sox. Zach Eflin landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to yesterday, with lower back inflammation. Brandon Lowe is back from the 10-day IL to take the vacated roster spot. Tampa Bay also optioned reliever Manuel Rodríguez to Triple-A Durham to open a bullpen spot for Richard Lovelady, who has joined the team after being acquired from the Cubs on Saturday.
Eflin has turned in solid results in 10 turns through the rotation. The right-hander is averaging just under six innings per start and has worked to a 4.12 earned run average. While his 17.9% strikeout rate is on track to be his lowest since 2017, he has compensated by essentially never handing out free passes. Eflin has only walked four batters all season, a 1.6% rate that is the lowest among all pitchers with 50+ innings.
The 30-year-old has been one of Tampa Bay’s more valuable pitchers this year, although his performance is a step down from last year’s work. Eflin had a brilliant first season in St. Petersburg, turning in 177 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball to earn a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting. He did lose a couple weeks early in the ’23 campaign to lower back tightness, though.
Eflin told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) that this year’s back issue feels similar to last season’s minor injury. Eflin suggested he could be back in around two weeks, while manager Kevin Cash indicated it was likely to be a 2-4 week absence. Tampa Bay has off days on Thursday and next Monday, so they could function with a four-man starting staff of Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Tyler Alexander into next week.
Lowe returns after a nearly six-week absence due to an oblique strain. The second baseman is in the cleanup spot against Tanner Houck tonight. Since Lowe landed on the IL, the Rays have rotated Curtis Mead, Amed Rosario and Richie Palacios through the keystone. Mead struggled enough that he has since been optioned to Triple-A. Palacios and Rosario have each hit well in their first seasons in Tampa Bay. They’re each capable of playing multiple positions and should still see fairly regular playing time around the diamond.
In other injury news, the Rays sent Jeffrey Springs to the Florida Complex League on a rehab assignment. The left-hander threw one inning this afternoon in his first game action since he underwent Tommy John surgery last April. Pitchers are typically allotted 30 days on a rehab stint, but returnees from Tommy John are usually allowed more than a month to build back into game shape. Springs could be ready for MLB action by the second half of June.
Braves Interested In Zach Eflin
The Braves are “keeping a close eye on” Zach Eflin as a potential trade target prior to the deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. Rotation help has been circled as a likely need for Atlanta ever since Spencer Strider was lost for the season to an internal brace surgery, and Eflin stands out as a potentially intriguing choice for several reasons.
First and foremost, Eflin is again pitching well in terms of bottom-line results, with a 4.12 ERA over 10 starts and 59 innings. The right-hander continues to be among the best control specialists in the game with a sterling 1.6% walk rate, though there are some red flags in other notable categories. Eflin is again among the league leaders in barrels even if his barrel rate is only slightly below average, but his hard-hit ball rate (41.6%) and strikeout rate (17.9%) are also both subpar. He was well above average in both categories in 2023, when Eflin’s first season in Tampa Bay resulted in a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.
A contender like the Braves won’t necessarily be scared off by Eflin’s 2024 numbers, as they are very familiar with Eflin’s work after dealing with him as a division rival during Eflin’s years with the Phillies. Durability might also be a concern given Eflin’s long history of knee problems, but he tossed 182 2/3 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs, and had only a brief IL stint due to a bad back.
These are all good reasons why the Rays themselves might naturally want to keep Eflin in their own rotation as they continue to vie for another postseason berth. Tampa Bay is 11-6 in its last 17 games, a hot streak that has gotten the club back up to a 25-23 record after a mediocre April. Eflin has also been a stabilizing force in a rotation beset by injuries, even if some reinforcements are on the way. Ryan Pepiot could return from the 15-day IL this week in his recovery from a leg contusion, Shane Baz (currently on a rehab assignment) and Jeffrey Springs are tentatively expected to return from Tommy John surgery rehab in July or August, and Drew Rasmussen is on roughly the same timeline after he went an internal brace procedure last July.
If at least one of Springs, Baz, or Rasmussen is already back by the deadline and the Rays are comfortable with the recovery status of the others, it is possible Tampa Bay might feel comfortable counting on these internal arms to help fill the gap created by trading Eflin. It is a risk that most teams might not take, and yet as always with the Rays, payroll could be a factor in their decision-making. Eflin is in the second season of a three-year, $40MM contract that was paid out as $11MM in both 2023 and 2024, and then $18MM in 2025. (He also receives a $1MM bonus in the event of a trade.)
Moving Eflin would allow the Rays to avoid the backloaded final portion of that contract, and get the remainder of Eflin’s 2024 salary also off the books. Even if Eflin isn’t dealt at the deadline, it stands to reason that the Rays might explore moving him this offseason, similar to how the club dealt Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers last winter before Glasnow was owed $25MM in 2024 under the terms of his previous contract.
Acquiring Eflin would also have some interesting payroll implications for a Braves team whose projected luxury tax number (as per RosterResource) sits at approximately $272.5MM. This is already well into the second tax tier and not far off the third tier that begins at $277MM. Atlanta hasn’t been shy in spending big in pursuit of another World Series title, but crossing the $277MM threshold carries the secondary penalty of a 10-slot drop for the Braves’ first selection in the 2025 draft. Eflin being controlled through 2025 might carry some particular for the Braves, however, as Max Fried and Charlie Morton will both be free agents this winter.
Alex Anthopoulos and Erik Neander are two of the most creative executives in baseball, so any number of interesting Atlanta/Tampa trades could be devised that would perhaps allow Eflin to change teams while also allowing the Braves to stay under that third luxury tax tier. The Rays could eat a larger portion of Eflin’s contract in order to obtain a better prospect return from the Braves, or perhaps a third team could be brought into the talks to balance things out.
Atlanta’s rotation has still been pretty solid even without Strider, as Braves starters entered Sunday with a combined 3.44 ERA (tenth-best in baseball). Fried, Morton, Chris Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez have all been good to great, though Sale’s durability is always a question mark and Lopez (who has a sparkling 1.34 ERA) is in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020, and he hasn’t tossed more than 66 innings in a season since 2019. Bryce Elder is the fifth starter and Darius Vines, Allan Winans, Huascar Ynoa, and top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep provide additional depth, though a pitcher like Eflin could be more of a proven commodity for a team with championship aspirations.
Rays Notes: Lowe, Pepiot, Poche, Devenski
The Rays are close to getting a major piece of their lineup back from the injured list, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that club manager Kevin Cash told reporters that Brandon Lowe is restarting his rehab assignment this weekend and could return to the big league roster as soon as Monday if all goes well in his final rehab outings.
Lowe made it into just eight games this season before being sidelined by an oblique injury but has been one of the club’s most reliable hitters since he made his debut back in 2018, as evidenced by the career .245/.334/.484 slash line he carried into the 2024 campaign. That includes two monster seasons in 2020 and 2021 that saw him earn downballot MVP consideration, but he’s remained a valuable hitter in recent years even as he’s not regained that elite peak offensive form; in 2023, the then-28-year-old slashed a solid .231/.328/.443 with 21 homers.
The Rays are surely hoping that Lowe can provide the club with a spark offensively, as the AL’s best offense from 2023 has scuffled a bit in 2024. They’ve posted a collective wRC+ of just 101 this year, down 17 points from last year and good for just 14th in the majors to this point in the year. Those relative struggles have been thanks primarily to down seasons from key contributors like Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena to this point in the season. Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario have filled in admirably for Lowe in his absence, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays look to work both players into the lineup on a semi-regular basis even upon Lowe’s return.
Also nearing a return from the shelf is right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who has been on the shelf since May 8 after being struck by in the leg by a comebacker. Pepiot’s return will be greatly appreciated for the Rays, as he’s pitched to a strong 3.68 ERA and 3.64 FIP through seven starts with the Rays in his first season as a regular in the rotation. Prior to being swapped to the Rays this past winter in the Tyler Glasnow deal, Pepiot had shown flashes of his impressive ability with the Dodgers, for whom he pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings split between the 2022 and ’23 seasons.
In Pepiot’s absence, the Rays have relied on Taj Bradley and Tyler Alexander to fill out the club’s rotation alongside Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Zack Littell. Bradley has looked excellent in his two starts since being activated, with a 2.45 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 11 frames. Alexander, on the other hand, has generally struggled while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen with the Rays but carried a perfect game into the eighth innings of his most recent start against the Blue Jays, ultimately throwing 7 1/3 innings of three-run ball on three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts.
Not all the injury news has been positive for the Rays, however. Topkin relays that Cash indicated to reporters today that the Rays still have no clear timeline for return regarding left-hander Colin Poche, who has been on the shelf for nearly a month now due to mid-back tightness. The 30-year-old southpaw was one of Tampa’s most important relievers last year as he pitched to a sterling 2.23 ERA with a 3.34 ERA and a 24.8% strikeout rate in 60 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, he struggled badly this season in ten appearances prior to being placed on the injured list, as he allowed seven runs in 9 1/3 frames on 12 hits and three walks while striking out six. Poche’s uncertain return date, according to Cash, contributed to the club’s decision to acquire left-hander Richard Lovelady from the Cubs earlier today in exchange for southpaw Jeff Belge.
While Poche appears to be nowhere near a return, the same isn’t true of veteran right-hander Chris Devenski, who has been on the shelf since late April due to a bout of knee tendinitis. Topkin notes that the veteran right-hander has begun a rehab assignment at Triple-A, though he notes that according to Cash the righty will need “at least” one more rehab appearance before the club considers bringing him back up to the big leagues. Cash also indicated that the Rays have not yet decided whether they’ll have Devenski take a longer rehab assignment in order to stretch him out for multi-inning relief or simply promote him to the majors as soon as he’s ready to contribute in shorter bursts. Devenski pitched to largely average results between the Angels and Rays last year, with a 4.46 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work despite a solid 3.96 FIP.
Rays Acquire Richard Lovelady From Cubs
The Rays and Cubs have agreed to a swap of left-handers, as the Rays announced that Richard Lovelady has been acquired in exchange for minor leaguer Jeff Belge. In a corresponding move, right-hander Jacob Waguespack was transferred to Tampa Bay’s 60-day injured list to create room on the 40-man roster.
Chicago designated Lovelady for assignment earlier this week, and today’s trade will officially end his Wrigleyville tenure after seven appearances. Lovelady signed a minor league contract with the Cubs over the offseason, and the team’s spate of bullpen injuries created another opportunity for the southpaw in the Show, as his contract was selected to the 26-man roster at the end of April. Unfortunately for Lovelady, he posted a 7.94 ERA over his 5 2/3 innings with Chicago, making him expendable when the Cubs needed a roster spot for the newly-acquired Tyson Miller.
Lovelady has pitched in five of the last six MLB seasons, with a 5.48 ERA across his 70 2/3 innings as a big leaguer. The home run ball has presented some problems for Lovelady and he isn’t a particularly hard thrower, yet some elements to his game hint at the potential for more consistent effectiveness. Lovelady has a 49.8% grounder rate at the Major League level, as well as solid strikeout (22.7%) and walk (8.8%) rates.
If any team can make Lovelady a late bloomer as he approaches his 29th birthday, it might be the Rays, given their history of turning unheralded pitchers into quality contributors. Lovelady is in his final minor league option year, so Tampa Bay has some flexibility in moving him between the majors and minors as circumstances warrant. Garrett Cleavinger is the only other southpaw in the Rays’ bullpen, so Lovelady will bring some more depth against lefty-swinging batters.
The 26-year-old Belge was an 18th-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2019 draft, and he came to Tampa in the December 2022 trade that sent J.P. Feyereisen to Los Angeles. Working almost exclusively as a relief pitcher in his 165 1/3 minor league innings, Belge has a 3.81 ERA and an impressive 32.59% strikeout rate, though his 14.56% walk rate is also inflated. Belge has pitched with Double-A Montgomery for the last two seasons and has yet to make his Triple-A debut.
Waguespack was placed on the 15-day IL on May 6 due to inflammation in his right rotator cuff. The issue is serious enough that he’ll need at least a 60-day stint to fully recover, so he’ll be out of action until the second week of July at the earliest. Waguespack has a 5.40 ERA across 10 innings and four appearances with Tampa Bay this season, which marked his first MLB action since 2020. The interim three seasons were spent in the Blue Jays’ farm system and then with the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball.
Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments
The 2023-24 offseason saw several teams go outside the box to add to their rotation mix by announcing plans to convert an established reliever into (or back into) a starting pitcher. It’s not a new concept by any means, of course, but it’s always notable when a player who’s found some success in one pitching role is shifted to the other — be it one-inning relievers stretching out to join a rotation or struggling starters shifting to the ‘pen and hoping to find new life as their stuff plays up.
In some instances — e.g. Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez — the pitchers in question signed lucrative multi-year deals as part of this planned pivot. For others, this role change comes amid their original six seasons of club control and could greatly impact their earnings in arbitration and/or in free agency down the road.
Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the year, it seems like a good time to check in on how some of these role changes are playing out. Readers should note that this rundown will focus on pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Pitchers like Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (who started 10 games last year and nine in 2022) or Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell (who moved to the rotation last summer and finished out the ’23 campaign as a starter) aren’t the focus here so much as arms who were more strictly confined to short relief recently.
Since so many of these transitions are going to bring about clear workload concerns, we’ll check back in periodically throughout the season. For now, here’s how things are going through about 25% of the schedule.
Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants
Hicks’ transition from flamethrowing late-inning reliever to … well, flamethrowing starting pitcher has gone seamlessly thus far. It’s only nine starts and 48 innings, but the 28-year-old boasts a 2.44 ERA in his move to the rotation. A career-low 19.9% strikeout rate is a red flag, but Hicks’ 8.2% walk rate is lower than the league average and a career-best mark as well. His 56.2% grounder rate isn’t quite as high as the 60% mark he carried into the season but is still more than 10 percentage points above average.
As one would expect, Hicks’ blazing sinker has lost quite a bit of velocity now that he’s not throwing one max-effort inning at a time. His sinker sat at 100.2 mph last year but is clocking in at 96 mph in 2024. Even with four fewer miles per hour on his primary offering, however, Hicks has more than enough velocity to keep hitters off balance.
Hicks has also fully incorporated the splitter he tinkered with in 2023 into his arsenal this year. After throwing it just 1.6% of the time last season, he’s thrown 22.5% splitters in 2024. Opponents may as well not even bother swinging at the pitch. Hicks has finished off 42 plate appearances with a splitter, and hitters have posted a .079/.167/.105 slash in those instances. Opposing batters have chased the pitch off the plate at more than a 35% clip, and Hicks boasts a huge 42.9% whiff rate on the pitch, per Statcast.
The big question for Hicks, as it is for virtually any pitcher making this transition, is how his arm will hold up once he begins pushing it into uncharted waters. Hicks has never topped 77 2/3 innings in a big league season. That mark came way back in his 2018 rookie showing. The 105 frames Hicks tallied as a minor league starter in 2017 are the most he’s ever pitched in a full season. He’ll be approaching his MLB-high after he makes another four starts or so and will be on the cusp of a new career-high about 10 to 11 starts from now — when there’s still roughly half a season left to play. Hicks wasn’t even especially durable as a reliever, only surpassing 35 appearances in two of his five prior big league seasons. The early returns are outstanding, but the real test will probably come in late June and into July.
Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves
Unlike Hicks, Lopez is no stranger to starting games at the MLB level. He started 73 games for the White Sox from 2018-20 after coming over from the Nationals alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the Adam Eaton trade. The first of those three seasons went well, but Lopez stumbled in 2019-20 and began to transition to the bullpen in 2021.
The shift to a relief role seemed to suit the right-hander well. His already impressive velocity played up even further. Lopez averaged better than 95 mph as a starter in ’18-’20 but saw that number jump to 97.1 mph in 2022 and a massive 98.4 mph in 2023. Over those two seasons, he pitched to a sharp 3.02 earned run average. His rate stats were somewhat uneven, as he showed pristine command (4.3% walk rate) but an only slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate in ’22 before jumping to a huge 29.9% strikeout rate in ’23 … but pairing it with a bloated 12.2% walk rate. Taken together, however, Lopez gave the Sox 131 1/3 innings with that 3.02 ERA, 31 holds, six saves, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.
When he signed with the Braves for three years and $30MM, that generally fell in line with expectations for what he’d command as a late-inning reliever. However, it quickly became clear that the Braves were going to stretch Lopez back out. There was plenty of skepticism — myself very much included, admittedly — but the experiment has gone better than anyone could’ve imagined.
Thus far, Lopez has not only been the Braves’ best starter but one of the most effective starters in the league. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball. His velocity has dipped back down to his 2018-20 levels, sitting 95.6 mph, but that’s to be expected working out of the rotation. His 25.5% strikeout rate is better than average but not elite. His 9.9% walk rate could stand to come down. But Lopez is throwing more curveballs than ever before (10%), has largely abandoned his changeup and is keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best 41.1% rate. That’s a bit shy of the 42.8% league average but noticeably higher than the 35% clip he posted during his time with the White Sox.
The uptick in grounders is one reason that Lopez is yielding a career-low 0.51 homers per nine innings. The other is a 5.4% homer-to-flyball rate that he almost certainly can’t sustain. That fluky HR/FB and an abnormally high 88.7% strand rate are part of the reason metrics like SIERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.79), which normalize HR/FB, tend to peg him for some regression. Still, even if he’s bound to see his ERA tick up by a couple runs, Lopez has looked great through his first six turns.
Time will tell just how his arm can handle a return to his 2018-19 workloads, but the early results are excellent — and the importance of his breakout is magnified by the loss of ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery. Notably, Lopez exited last night’s start with some tightness in his back, but manager Brian Snitker suggested after the game that he’s likely to make his next start.
A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins
On the other side of the coin, the Marlins’ efforts to move Puk back into a starting role quickly went down in flames. Puk, a former No. 6 overall pick who worked as a starter in the minors, looked excellent this spring. He pitched 13 2/3 innings over four starts and two earned runs with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio. The transition could hardly have gotten out to a more promising start.
In his first four regular-season starts, Puk also pitched 13 2/3 innings. The similarities stop there. Opponents bludgeoned Puk for 14 earned runs on 19 hits and a stunning 17 walks. He fanned only 12 of his 77 opponents (15.6%).
Miami placed Puk on the injured list on April 20 due to left shoulder fatigue. He returned from the injured list just yesterday. Despite myriad injuries in their rotation, the Fish have already pulled the plug on the rotation experiment for Puk, announcing that he’ll be back in the bullpen following his stay on the injured list. It’s a role he thrived in over the past two seasons, logging a 3.51 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate while piling up 22 saves and 19 holds.
If Puk returns to form as a reliever — he was particularly impressive in ’23, striking out 32.2% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate — the ill-fated rotation gambit will be little more than a footnote in what hopefully ends up as a strong overall career as a reliever. If Puk’s struggles persist, however, there’ll be plenty of second-guessing the decision to take one of the team’s best relief arms and stretch him out despite a litany of injury troubles that had combined to limit Puk to only 147 2/3 innings in his entire career prior to this season.
Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox
Crochet has worked to a pedestrian earned run average on the season due to a bevy of home runs allowed, but the former first-rounder who’s drawn comparisons to Chris Sale since being drafted by the White Sox has turned in elite strikeout and walk numbers. The 4.63 ERA looks unimpressive, but Crochet has fanned more than a third of his opponents (34.2%) against a pristine 4.8% walk rate.
Crochet boasts an excellent 14.5% swinging-strike rate and is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater. That’s a ways from the 100.2 mph he averaged in six innings as a rookie in 2020, but Crochet has had Tommy John surgery since that time and is working in longer stints now as opposed to bullpen work in ’20. This year’s velocity actually slightly exceeds his average velocity from working purely as a reliever in 2022-23.
In terms of workload concern, Crochet is up there with Puk in terms of extreme uncertainty. He entered the season with a total of 73 big league innings since his No. 11 overall selection in 2020 and is already at 46 2/3 innings on the young 2024 campaign. So long as he keeps missing bats and limiting walks anywhere near his current levels, the run-prevention numbers will come down — FIP and SIERA peg him at 3.33 and 2.37, respectively — but it’s anyone’s guess as to how Crochet will hold up. He skipped the minor leagues entirely, so even if you add in his whole minor league body of work, that’d only tack last year’s 12 1/3 rehab innings onto his track record. Going from a total of 85 1/3 professional innings over a four-year period to a full starter’s workload is bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far Crochet looks quite intriguing as a starting pitcher.
Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels
The Angels nearly lost Soriano back in 2020, when the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Soriano was wrapping up his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery and could’ve been stashed in a rebuilding Pittsburgh bullpen upon his reinstatement from the injured list. A setback in his recovery early in the season prompted another wave of imaging and revealed a new tear, however. Soriano underwent a second Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2021. He was eventually returned to the Angels.
Unfortunate as that back-to-back pair of surgeries was, Soriano’s injury troubles allowed the Angels to keep him in the system. They’re now reaping the benefits. The flamethrowing righty made 38 relief appearances last season and pitched to a quality 3.64 ERA with a huge 30.3% strikeout rate — albeit against a troubling 12.4% walk rate. Soriano averaged 98.6 mph on his heater last year and wound up picking up 15 holds, as the then-rookie righty increasingly worked his way into higher-leverage spots.
The Angels announced early in spring training that Soriano would be stretched out as a starter. His ramp-up continued into the regular season. His first two appearances this year came out of the bullpen but both spanned three innings. He’s since moved into the rotation and has looked quite impressive. Through his first seven starts, Soriano touts a 3.58 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and an outstanding 62.8% ground-ball rate. Even though he’s working in longer stints, he’s improved his fastball and is now sitting at 99.3 mph with it. His 12.4% walk rate still needs improvement, but the returns here are quite promising.
Soriano only pitched 65 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues last year, and he’s already at 38 2/3 frames on the 2024 season. He’s never pitched more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. We’ll see how he fares as he pushes past those thresholds, but there’s a lot to like with this rotation move — even though it’s garnered far less attention than some of the others around the game.
Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays
The Rays obviously have a knack for finding hidden gems and converting unheralded arms into viable starting pitchers — hey there, Zack Littell — and Alexander is an example of their latest efforts to do so. The left-hander has started for the Tigers in the past and functioned in a swingman role, but the Rays picked him up in a low-cost move following a DFA in Detroit with the idea of stretching him out. Since it’s Tampa Bay, not all of Alexander’s “starts” have been, well, actual starts. He’s followed an opener on multiple occasions already, but he’s followed that one- or two-inning table-setter with at least four innings each time out.
Overall, Alexander has made eight appearances and averaged just under five frames per outing (39 2/3 total innings). He’s sitting on a pretty rough 5.45 ERA, thanks in part to a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees last time out (though he did at least complete seven frames in that start, helping to spare the Tampa Bay bullpen). Alexander’s 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of average. His 6.9% walk rate is about two points better than average. However, he’s taken his longstanding status as a fly-ball pitcher to new heights in 2024, inducing grounders at just a 30.4% clip.
Alexander’s 14.5% homer-to-flyball ratio is only a couple percentage points north of average, but because of the sheer volume of fly-balls he’s yielding, he’s still averaging more than two taters per nine frames. Opponents have posted an ugly 11.8% barrel rate against him (ugly for Alexander, that is). If he can’t cut back on the fly-balls and/or start finding a way to avoid the barrel more regularly, it’s going to be hard for Alexander to find sustained success. The Rays don’t convert on every dart-throw — much as it’s fun to joke to the contrary — and so far the Alexander experiment hasn’t paid off.
Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers
Wilson’s move to the rotation wasn’t necessarily planned, but injuries up and down the Brewers’ staff forced the issue. Five of his past six outings have been starts and he’s sporting an eye-catching 1.78 ERA in that span. The rest of the numbers in that stretch are less impressive. Wilson has a tepid 17.3% strikeout rate in that stretch but has walked an untenable 13.5% of opponents. Opponents have posted a hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) against him during that time. Were it not for a .191 BABIP and 92.2% strand rate, the ERA wouldn’t look nearly as rosy. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (5.34) are quite bearish.
Wilson is still scheduled to take the ball on Saturday in Houston, but his recent stretch of run-prevention doesn’t seem sustainable without some improvements in his K-BB profile.