Rays Designate Ryan Yarbrough For Assignment
The Rays announced a number of roster moves in advance of tonight’s deadline to set the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Tampa Bay made a trio of trades and, in perhaps their most notable transaction, designated left-hander Ryan Yarbrough for assignment. The Rays also designated reliever Javy Guerra and outfielder Bligh Madris for assignment. Joining the 40-man roster are infielders Curtis Mead, Osleivis Basabe and Greg Jones and pitchers Taj Bradley and Colby White, who’d all have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
The move officially brings to an end Yarbrough’s four-plus year run in Tampa Bay. The southpaw debuted in 2018 and spent his first three seasons as a productive innings-eater on the staff. While he wasn’t a traditional starting pitcher, Yarbrough frequently soaked up innings as a bulk pitcher behind an opener. Through the end of the 2020 campaign, he carried a 3.94 ERA in 344 2/3 career innings.
Things have gone off the rails for Yarbrough over the past two seasons. He’s been tagged for an ERA at 4.50 or above in both years, while his average fastball speed has ticked down around 87 MPH after sitting just under 90 earlier in his career. He still throws plenty of strikes and excels at generating soft contact, but his run prevention marks have gone in the wrong direction. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, the Old Dominion product has a 4.90 ERA through 50 appearances and 235 frames. The 2022 campaign was particularly challenging, as he was optioned to Triple-A on a couple occasions and missed time with groin and oblique issues.
Yarbrough was in his penultimate offseason of arbitration eligibility. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $4.2MM salary if tendered a contract, he’s looked like a trade or non-tender candidate for the past few months. Tampa Bay reportedly shopped him at last week’s GM meetings, but they evidently didn’t find a taker. They can still look to deal him over the next few days, or he can be non-tendered and sent to free agency for the first time.
The Rays acquired Guerra from the Padres in April. He was outrighted off the roster not long after but made it back to the big league club midseason. He provided the Rays with 16 innings of 3.38 ERA ball, but he only managed a 12.9% strikeout rate while walking 11.4% of opponents. The 27-year-old former shortstop throws very hard but hasn’t found much success missing bats at the upper levels.
Madris, 26, was snagged off waivers from the Pirates in September. He didn’t suit up at the big league level in Tampa Bay. He hit .177/.244/.265 through his first 39 MLB games in Pittsburgh. Madris had a much more impressive .297/.366/.510 showing between the two teams’ Triple-A affiliates. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, so he could find some interest via trade or waiver claim in the next few days.
As far as the players making it onto the Tampa Bay roster, Mead was one of the easiest calls any team in the majors had to make. A former amateur signee from Australia, the righty-hitting infielder has broken out as one of the sport’s top prospects. Mead slots in 23rd on Baseball America’s most recent top 100, the latest in a long line of excellent infield talents coming up through the system. He hit .298/.390/.532 across 311 plate appearances between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham and should factor into the MLB mix early next season.
Bradley is a top prospect in his own right, appearing 15th on BA’s list. A fifth-round selection out of a Georgia high school in 2018, he’s flown to Triple-A. The right-hander split his age-21 season between Montgomery and Durham, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 133 1/3 innings while striking out 26.5% of batters faced. He draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and should factor into the rotation mix early next season.
Basabe was originally signed by the Rangers out of Venezuela. Dealt to the Rays in the trade that landed Nate Lowe in Arlington, he’s played his way to Double-A. The 22-year-old has experience all around the infield and combined for an excellent .324/.385/.462 mark between High-A Bowling Green and Montgomery this year.
Jones was a first-round pick in 2019 out of UNC-Wilmington. A switch-hitting shortstop/center fielder with blazing speed, he had a rough year in Montgomery. Jones hit .238/.318/.392 with eight homers and a huge 35.8% strikeout percentage in Double-A. He stole 37 bases, though, and the Rays didn’t want to chance losing his defense and athleticism.
White was a sixth-round selection from Mississippi State in that same draft. The 24-year-old is a pure reliever but has an excellent fastball and could factor into the big league bullpen next year. He spent all of this past season on the injured list.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported Yarbrough had been DFA.
Giants Acquire Brett Wisely From Rays
The Giants are acquiring infielder Brett Wisely from the Rays, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter). Minor league outfielder Tristan Peters is headed back to Tampa Bay, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link).
Wisely, 23, was selected by Tampa Bay out of a Florida junior college in the 15th round of the 2019 draft. A left-handed hitter, he’s played mostly second base but has some experience at each of third base, shortstop and in left field. Regarded more as a bat-first player, he’s indeed hit well against minor league pitching. Wisely put up a .274/.371/.460 line with 15 home runs over 500 plate appearances with Double-A Montgomery this year. He walked at a strong 12.4% clip, struck out in a manageable 20.8% of his trips, and stole 31 bases (albeit in 42 attempts).
The Rays would’ve had to add Wisely to the 40-man roster this evening to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft. Facing a strong roster squeeze, they’ve made three trades to deal players already on the 40-man or Rule 5 eligible for further away talent. San Francisco has already selected Wisely’s contract, so he won’t be eligible for the Rule 5.
Peters was a 7th-round pick of the Brewers in 2021. Dealt from Milwaukee to San Francisco for Trevor Rosenthal at this past trade deadline, he had a tail of two halves season. After hitting .308/.386/.485 in 90 High-A games before the swap, he managed only a .212/.302/.303 line in Double-A after the deal. A left-handed batter, he played primarily left field.
Marlins To Acquire JT Chargois, Xavier Edwards From Rays
The Rays are dealing reliever JT Chargois and infielder Xavier Edwards to the Marlins for prospects Marcus Johnson and Santiago Suarez, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
Chargois will step directly into the Miami bullpen. The hard-throwing righty owns a 2.49 ERA through 76 innings split between the Mariners and Rays over the past two seasons. He’s fanned a solid 23.2% of opponents against a manageable 8.3% walk rate, missing bats at a roughly league average clip. Chargois missed a couple months this past season due to tightness in his left oblique, but he managed a 2.42 ERA with a huge 59.7% ground-ball percentage when healthy.
It’s unlikely Chargois will continue to strand upwards of 80% of baserunners, as he has the last two years. ERA estimators have pegged his performance more in the mid-3.00s range, but he should still be an affordable power arm in the middle innings for first-year manager Skip Schumaker. Chargois held right-handed batters to a woeful .200/.235/.385 line this year. He’s in the first of three seasons of arbitration eligibility and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1MM salary.
Edwards, a former Padres draftee, was a key piece of the deal that sent Blake Snell to San Diego. A switch-hitting infielder, he draws praise for his top-of-the-line speed and has played almost exclusively in the middle infield as a professional. Edwards appeared among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects during the 2019-20 offseason and ranked among the top ten in the strong Tampa Bay system as recently as this year.
The 23-year-old seemed to stall out at Triple-A Durham this season, however. Over 400 trips to the dish, he hit just .246/.328/.350 with five home runs. A 10.8% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout percentage are each solid, but the Florida native didn’t find much extra-base impact. He also swiped a career-low seven bases in 11 attempts.
Edwards would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40-man roster this evening. Tampa Bay apparently wasn’t planning to do that, so they’ll deal him to a club that ostensibly is willing to put him on the roster. Moving Chargois clears a roster spot, and while it subtracts a productive big league reliever, it’s the kind of churn at the back of the 40-man roster to which the Rays have been accustomed.
In return, they’ll add a pair of further-away players to the farm system. Johnson was Miami’s fourth-round pick this year out of Duke. A 6’6″ right-handed pitcher, he signed for just north of $507K. Baseball America’s draft report noted the high spin rate on his slider and added that the 21-year-old sits in the 92-95 MPH range with his fastball. Suarez, 17, just signed with Miami as an amateur prospect from Venezuela. He made 11 starts in the Dominican Summer League this year.
Rays Trade Miles Mastrobuoni To Cubs
2:45pm: The Rays’ return for Mastrobuoni will be 21-year-old righty Alfredo Zarraga, Topkin further reports. The Cubs announced the trade shortly after Topkin’s report.
The 21-year-old Zarraga (22 tomorrow) has pitched just 18 2/3 professional innings with the Cubs organization, all in 2022, when he posted a 1.93 ERA and 29-to-9 K/BB ratio in 18 2/3 innings across two Class-A levels. Topkin tweets that Zarraga suffered a broken right hand in August, which ended his season, though there’s no indication that he won’t be ready for Spring Training.
2:03pm: The Rays and Cubs have agreed to a trade that would send infielder/outfielder Miles Mastrobuoni to Chicago, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. In exchange, the Rays will receive a minor league pitcher whose identity is not yet known.
Mastrobuoni, 27, was a 14th round draft pick of the Rays in 2016. He hasn’t been a highly-touted prospect for much of his time in the minors, but did crack the FanGraphs list of top Tampa farmhands coming into 2022, getting the #37 slot. He then cracked the Baseball America list for the first at the 2022 midseason update at #20.
He climbed his way onto those lists by continuing to hit up the minor league ladder while showcasing a classic Tampa Bay defensive versatility. In 2022, he got into 129 Triple-A games, hitting 16 home runs and stealing 23 bases, producing a batting line of .300/.377/.469 for a wRC+ of 126. He walked in 11% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 16.6% of them. Defensively, he played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots. That was enough to get him a brief promotion to the big leagues, as he had his contract selected in September but only got into eight games.
The Rays have a roster crunch that they have been dealing with in recent days, as they have many Rule 5 eligible players that they have to consider adding to their roster prior to today’s deadline. In the past week, they’ve declined a club option on Kevin Kiermaier, traded Ji-Man Choi and put Nick Anderson, Roman Quinn, Jimmy Yacabonis and Brendan McKay on waivers. Now Mastrobuoni is the latest victim of the squeeze.
For the Cubs, they have been rebuilding and have various positions that could be up for grabs, depending on how their offseason goes. Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner seem likely to have regular roles, though Hoerner could potentially be moved from shortstop to second base. Ian Happ will be in the lineup but he’s also one year away from free agency and frequently mentioned in trade rumors. The rest of the lineup is currently a hodgepodge of unproven young players or veterans unlikely to be long-term building blocks. Mastrobuoni’s versatility should allow the Cubs to bounce him around to wherever they need, depending on what players they acquire during the offseason or how their young players develop going forward. He still has a full slate of options and has yet to reach arbitration, meaning he won’t cost the club much and can be sent to the minors if he doesn’t carve out a role on the big league club.
Rays Release Brendan McKay, Hopeful Of Re-Signing Him To Minor League Deal
The Rays have released left-hander Brendan McKay, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The former fourth overall pick was outrighted off Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster last week.
McKay has had an unfathomable stretch of injury luck that has sidetracked what looked to be a very promising career. A two-way superstar in college, McKay increasingly focused on pitching as a professional. An excellent strike-thrower, he moved quickly through the minor leagues and reached the majors by 2019. He started 11 of 13 games during his rookie season, showing promising strikeout and walk marks through 49 innings.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to throw a single major league pitch in the three-plus years since then. He missed the shortened 2020 season on account of a shoulder problem that eventually required surgery. The rehab from that procedure kept him out of action until late June 2021. Just a few outings into a minor league rehab stint, McKay suffered a flexor strain in his forearm that again proved to be season-ending. He was then diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and underwent surgery to correct that issue last November.
McKay spent most of 2022 on the injured list recovering from the TOS procedure. He set out on a rehab assignment in mid-July and spent his allotted 30-day window pitching back to Triple-A. The Rays then formally reinstated McKay from the IL but kept him in Durham on an optional assignment. A few days later, he suffered a UCL injury while pitching with the Bulls. Tampa Bay announced in September he’d require Tommy John surgery, an injury that’ll cost him the entire 2023 season.
The Rays successfully ran McKay through waivers last week, and he didn’t have the service time to refuse the outright assignment at that time. Tampa Bay could’ve kept him in the farm system, but the 26-year-old (27 next month) would’ve reached minor league free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign if not added back to the 40-man roster, as he’d have tallied parts of seven years on a minor league roster.
With McKay unable to pitch for the entirety of next year, there’s little incentive for Tampa Bay to keep him in the organization on his current deal. Topkin reports the Rays are hopeful of inking him to a new, multi-year minor league contract — which would extend their window of team control a season without necessitating a 40-man roster spot at the start of the 2023-24 offseason. However, McKay will have an opportunity to explore interest elsewhere around the league if he’d like before making any move.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Tampa Bay Rays
MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with the recent Offseason Outlook for the Rays, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-themed chat. Click here to read the transcript.
Royals Hire Paul Hoover As Bench Coach
November 14: The Royals have made it official, announcing that Hoover has been added to Quatraro’s staff.
November 13: The Royals are hiring Paul Hoover as their new bench coach, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link). Hoover has spent the last four seasons on the Rays staff as their Major League field coordinator, so with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro now taking over as Kansas City’s manager, it makes sense that Quatraro would want a familiar face as his top lieutenant.
Filling in the holes on the Tampa coaching staff, Topkin reports that minor league catching coordinator Tomas Francisco is joining the big league staff. Triple-A manager Brady Williams is also becoming the new third base coach, as Topkin reported last week that Williams was being promoted to a then-unknown role for his first job on a Major League staff.
Hoover is a veteran of 40 Major League games, during a playing career that stretched over seven MLB seasons and 14 professional seasons in total. He began his post-playing career in 2012 as a manager for the Rays’ Gulf Coast League affiliate, and then six seasons as a catching coordinator working at all levels of Tampa Bay’s farm system before receiving a promotion to the MLB staff.
The 46-year-old Hoover replaces Pedro Grifol in the bench coach job, after Grifol left the Royals to become the new White Sox manager. It seems likely that some other changes might some to the K.C. staff, and one vacancy has yet to be filled as the Royals are looking for a new pitching coach.
The Rays often promote from within for coaching vacancies, and the 34-year-old Francisco will get his first opportunity on the big league staff. Francisco played in the Rays’ farm system from 2007-2010, and then moved onto such roles as manager of the Rays’ GCL and Dominican Summer League teams, as well as his catching coordinator position.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The 2022 Rays fell short of capturing their third straight AL East crown but still qualified for the postseason for a fourth straight season. They have a small free agent class, meaning the vast majority of the gang can be brought back for another year. However, with a huge arbitration class that featured 19 players lined up for raises, and large number of Rule 5-eligible prospects, they will be forced to make some tough decisions, a process that has already begun.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Wander Franco, SS: $176MM through 2032, including $2MM buyout on $25MM option for 2033.
- Tyler Glasnow, SP: $30.35MM through 2024.
- Manuel Margot, OF: $19MM through 2024, including $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option for 2025.
- Brandon Lowe, IF/OF: $15MM through 2024, including $1MM buyout on $10.5MM club option for 2025. Club also has $11.5MM option for for 2026 with $500K buyout.
- Brooks Raley, RP: $5.75MM through 2023, including $1.25MM buyout on $6.5MM club option for 2024.
Option Decisions
- Kevin Kiermaier, OF: club turned down $13MM club option in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.
Total 2023 commitments: $27.85MM
Total future commitments: $248.6MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Yonny Chirinos (4.125): $1.6MM
- Yandy Diaz (4.122): $5.4MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (4.117): $4.2MM
- Shawn Armstrong (4.113): $1.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (4.070): $1.2MM
- Andrew Kittredge (4.070): $2MM
- Francisco Mejía (4.062): $2.2MM
- Jeffrey Springs (4.055): $3MM
- Harold Ramírez (3.124): $2.1MM
- Colin Poche (3.109): $1.7MM
- JT Chargois (3.101): $1MM
- Pete Fairbanks (3.057): $1.5MM
- Christian Bethancourt (3.038): $1.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (3.000): $1.1MM
- Jason Adam (2.132): $1.9MM
- Randy Arozarena (2.129): $4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Choi, Chirinos, Yarbrough, Armstrong, Kittredge, Mejía, Poche, Chargois
Free Agents
The Rays entered 2022 having won the division title in 2020 and 2021, looking to be strong yet again. It was a bit of a disappointing season though, with the club bitten pretty hard by the injury bug, particularly on the pitching staff. Despite various ailments, they still snuck into the playoffs by going 86-76 and taking the final Wild Card spot in the first year of the 12-team expanded playoffs. With much of the same roster in place for next year, it’s possible that the club will be better in 2023 just by having better luck on the health front. However, as is always the case with the Rays, payroll concerns might lead to some notable subtractions and creative solutions, especially with the loaded arbitration class.
Since Tampa’s decisions are usually motivated by money in some way, let’s talk turkey up front. Roster Resource estimates that the club’s 2023 payroll is currently slated to be around $72MM. The club had an Opening Day figure of $84MM in 2022, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A surprise splurge can’t be totally ruled out, since they reportedly made an offer to Freddie Freeman a year ago. However, that didn’t come to fruition and they ended up making modest signings while trading away arb-eligible players players like Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle and Jordan Luplow. If they are planning to spend at a similar level next year, they won’t have much to work with, though they could give themselves more breathing room by non-tendering or trading some of that big arb class. They’ve already gotten some of that work done, having traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates, as well as putting Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn on waivers. Those latter two elected free agency and Anderson has already signed with Atlanta.
The future offseason moves will hinge on where they subtract and where they add. Pitching seems to be especially in flux, with the club reportedly discussing Ryan Yarbrough, Shawn Armstrong and Yonny Chirinos in recent trades. None of those pitchers are essential pieces of the pitching staff, meaning the Rays are in a position to make some minor moves and still wind up in a decent position overall. Even with Shane Baz undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss all of 2023, the rotation still consists of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in the front four spots.
Yarbrough is a candidate for the fifth spot, but he has a 4.90 ERA over the past two seasons combined. If they pull the trigger on a deal, that would leave a hole, but they have other options to fill it. Luis Patiño was limited by injuries in 2022 but is just 23 years old and could still establish himself as a valuable starter. There’s also Taj Bradley, considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He finished his season with 12 Triple-A starts and should be in position to make his MLB debut in 2023. Even if no one steps up to secure the final rotation spot or an injury creates another hole, the Rays have shown they’re not afraid to rely on bullpen games to grind through parts of the schedule. A free-agent addition can’t be ruled out, as the club signed Corey Kluber last year for a modest one-year, $8MM deal. However, they also have enough in-house options that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend elsewhere.
The bullpen is also in pretty good shape, unsurprising given Tampa’s penchant for finding unheralded arms and helping them find their best selves. Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, J.P. Feyereisen, Jalen Beeks, JT Chargois all posted ERAs under 3.00 in 2022 and should form a solid backbone for the relief corps. A trade can never be ruled out with Tampa, but none of that group is projected to make more than a few million. Given the club’s knack for finding hidden gems, it’s possible they’ll make another low-key signing or two in order to supplement the group. Raley, for instance, posted a 4.78 ERA with Houston in 2021 as a 33-year-old before signing a $10MM deal with the Rays. He then earned a 2.68 ERA in Tampa this year. Adam, the owner of a 1.56 ERA through 63 1/3 innings with the Rays this past season, is an even more extreme example; he signed for just $900K prior to the 2022 season.
One area without a solid foundation is the catching mix. The Rays picked up a club option on Mike Zunino for 2022, but he performed poorly over 36 games before requiring season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. To fill that hole, the Rays acquired Christian Bethancourt in a trade with the A’s. The veteran was playing in the big leagues for the first time since 2017, having been bouncing around various organization, including a stint in the KBO. He ended up having the best season of his career, hitting .252/.283/.409 for a wRC+ of 101. He also got positive marks for his glovework, leading to 1.9 fWAR on the year in just 101 games. He can be retained via a modest arbitration raise, but do the Rays want to go into the season relying on a 31-year-old journeyman with an inconsistent track record, even if his 2022 was solid?
Francisco Mejía and René Pinto are also on the 40-man roster to give them some depth, but the Rays could still look to address the catching mix in some way. They don’t seem likely to spend at top-of-the-market rates for (e.g. Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez), but there will be more affordable options, such as Omar Narvaez, Austin Hedges, Gary Sanchez, Tucker Barnhart and Roberto Perez. The trade market should also give them access to Oakland’s Sean Murphy or one of Toronto’s many backstops, though the latter scenario is likely difficult to line up for the AL East competitors.
For the middle infield, the Rays will be hoping for better health on the injury front in 2023. Shortstop Wander Franco and second baseman Brandon Lowe each missed significant time and neither got into more than 83 games on the year. Franco, of course, was considered the top prospect in the game and had a strong debut in 2021. Only 20 years old at the time, he then signed an 11-year extension to be the club’s shortstop and face of the franchise for over a decade. The first season was frustrating because of the injuries, but he’ll look to bounce back next year. Lowe is now 28 and has just two guaranteed years left on his contract, though there’s also a club option for 2025. You can never rule out a trade when it comes to the Rays, but given his down year, it would be selling low to make a move at this time.
For the rest of the infield, Choi has already been subtracted at first base but they still have many options for the corner spots and utility/bench roles. Yandy Diaz is coming off the best offensive season of his career and should have one spot locked down. He’s mostly played third base but can move across to first on occasion. Then there’s Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, Harold Ramírez, Taylor Walls, Vidal Bruján, Luke Raley and Miles Mastrobuoni on the 40-man roster. Not yet on the 40-man are highly-touted prospects like Kyle Manzardo, Xavier Edwards, Curtis Mead and Greg Jones. Those latter three will need to be selected this week to be protected from being scooped in the Rule 5 draft. That will surely lead to some classic Tampa roster shuffling in the days to come, but they should finish with many intriguing options for filling out the infield picture in 2023.
In the outfield, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot and Jose Siri are the three on-paper regulars, now that David Peralta is a free agent. Some of the utility infield options from the last paragraph will be in the mix for playing time on the turf as well, alongside former top prospect Josh Lowe and waiver pickup Bligh Madris. As said previously, no one can confidently say the Rays won’t trade from this mix. They’ve previously moved solid regulars like Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows, after all. While most of these current Rays have yet to reach arbitration, Arozarena just qualified as a Super Two and will now go through the arb process for the first of four times. Margot still has two years and $19MM left on his extension, making him the most expensive of the bunch. For now, they have plenty of options, but that can change in a hurry.
The path forward for the Rays is very unpredictable in terms of the specifics but it seems like it will follow a familiar path in a broad sense. Given their low-spending ways and roster crunch, they will surely be very active. They’ve already flipped Choi and cut Anderson, with more of those kinds of moves surely in the cards. Some of their arb-eligible players will likely be dealt or non-tendered, though there are so many options that even the Rays themselves can’t yet be sure just who’ll change hands.
Once the dust settles on those, they should have a few dollars to spend on modest additions to fill out whatever holes are created. It might not be as exciting as a team that’s targeting Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom in free agency, but this is how the Rays operate and they do it well. Even in an injury-marred 2022, they still grabbed their fourth straight postseason berth. Given that most of their key pieces are still in place next year, a bit more luck on the health front should have them back in the playoff mix yet again, though likely with more than a handful of new names and new faces.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 11-14-22. Click here to read the transcript.
The Opener: Approaching Deadlines, Montero, Orioles
With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement
Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.
2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market
In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.
3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means‘ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.
Rays Notes: 40-Man Roster, Trades, Choi, Kiermaier
Several teams are facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter, with the Rays in particular facing a lot of tough decisions due to the depth in their talented farm system. As such, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the Rays have been “in advanced trade negotiations” and could make multiple deals before Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. The Reds, Cubs, Mets, and Angels are among the teams who have called the Rays in search of pitching.
Any number of options could be on the table for a Tampa Bay front office that is always seeking roster and payroll flexibility. It is possible and even likely that the Rays might not swing any major deals, as Tampa might first be exploring the trade value of any players at the back end of their 40-man roster. Before leaving these players unprotected or maybe even non-tendering them or designating them for assignment, the Rays first want to check if anything can be obtained in exchange for these somewhat expendable pieces.
A more interesting wrinkle would see the Rays discussing trades involving prospects or part-time players who might also be a bit superfluous within the organization. Last November, the Rays dealt Louis Head, Mike Brosseau, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Tobias Myers in separate trades in the week prior to the 40-man deadline. Of that group, only Brosseau had some success at the MLB level in 2022, posting some solid numbers in a reserve role with the Brewers.
Of course, the biggest headline-grabber for the Rays would be a trade involving a regular on their Major League roster, and this possibility certainly can’t be ruled out given Tampa’s history of aggressive deal-making. The Rays have a very large arbitration class that they’ve already reduced to “only” 16 remaining players, after trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates and parting ways with Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn. None of the arbitration-eligibles are projected to earn truly huge money, but every dollar counts for the budget-conscious Rays, and Yandy Diaz ($5.4MM in projected salary), Ryan Yarbrough ($4.2MM) and Randy Arozarena ($4MM) are the most expensive of the bunch.
Yonny Chirinos is projected for $1.6MM and Shawn Armstrong for $1.4MM, and those two hurlers stand out since Morosi reported earlier this week that the Rays were discussing Chirinos, Armstrong, and Yarbrough during the GM Meetings. It isn’t known if the Reds, Angels, Cubs, or Mets were focused on any of this trio in particular, but any of those pitchers could be potential fits for teams with rotation or bullpen needs. Chirinos could carry the most intrigue, as the right-hander pitched well in 2018-19 before injuries (a Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow) limited him to just 18 1/3 MLB innings since the start of the 2020 campaign.
Choi’s projected $4.5MM salary certainly played a role in his move to Pittsburgh, and the Rays were known to be talking to more than just the Pirates about the first baseman. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Padres and Astros also had some interest, with Houston revisiting their interest in Choi from prior to the trade deadline.
The Astros ended up adding Trey Mancini to bolster themselves at first base, but since Mancini and Yuli Gurriel are both free agents, it makes sense that the Astros would again check in on a past target. Likewise, the Padres have a need at first base with Josh Bell hitting the open market. Choi is scheduled for free agency himself next winter and thus probably wouldn’t have been seen a longer-term add for either team, or even a full-time option. Either Houston or San Diego might have opted to just play Choi against right-handed pitching.
Also from Topkin’s notes column, he had an interesting wrinkle to the end of Kevin Kiermaier‘s tenure in Tampa Bay. There was no doubt that the Rays were going to buy out Kiermaier for $2.5MM rather than exercise his $13MM club option for 2023, yet Kiermaier said that he heard an unknown team had some talks with the Rays about a veritable sign-and-trade deal. In this scenario, the Rays would have exercised the club option and then swapped Kiermaier to this mystery team.
Given that Kiermaier is coming off a season shortened by hip surgery, it doesn’t seem likely that the other club would’ve been too keen to give up an asset to absorb that entire $13MM contract. It is more probable that the other team perhaps offered another undesirable contract in return to help offset the cost, or maybe had Kiermaier involved as part of a larger trade package. In any case, the Rays weren’t interested, and preferred to just decline the option — perhaps with an eye towards re-signing Kiermaier at a lower price.