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2019 Vesting Options Update

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Near the end of May, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk provided readers with an update on all the known 2019 vesting options. As he mentioned at that time, some options of this kind go unreported, so we’ll examine the list below with the caveat that it could potentially be incomplete.

A vesting option is a clause in a player’s contract that can change the structure of the deal by guaranteeing him an additional year under contract; these are usually triggered when a player meets certain plate appearance thresholds and/or is healthy at season’s end.

Here’s where those six players stand…

Will Vest

Seunghwan Oh: The South Korea native is just one relief appearance away from triggering the clause in his contract that’ll turn his $2.5MM club option (with a $250K buyout) into a guarantee. Oh, 36, originally signed his contract with the Blue Jays, where he began the season strong and was ultimately flipped to the Rockies prior to July’s non-waiver trade deadline. On the whole, he’s whiffed 10.19 batters per nine while walking just 2.34 per nine en route to a tidy 2.76 ERA. With the Rockies in the midst of a pennant chase, Oh is sure to get his 70th appearance on the season at some point in the coming days.

Will Not Vest

Hanley Ramirez: HanRam started the season hot, but after posting a .874 OPS in April, he mustered just a .500 OPS the month following en route to being designated for assignment on May 24th (just four days after out last vesting options update). What was once an intriguing situation to watch had the mystery taken out of it abruptly, and Ramirez hasn’t played in the bigs since.

Cole Hamels: The resurgent lefty has been a welcome sight for a Cubs rotation that didn’t get any semblance of what they hoped for from Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood. Since being acquired from the Rangers at the trade deadline, he’s tossed 63 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball. That brings him to just 177 2/3 IP on the season, however, which will fall well short of the towering 252 figure he needs for his vesting option to trigger. Per the terms of a deal he originally signed with the Phillies, Hamels’ $20MM club option ($6MM buyout) would have morphed into a one-year, $24MM pact if he managed to throw 200 innings this season and 400 total from 2017-2018, all while ending the season without any shoulder or elbow injuries requiring a DL placement. Hamels took the mound for just 148 innings last season, so while he’s been pretty good in Chicago, hopes of achieving his vesting option threshold were little more than a pipe dream to begin with.

Brian McCann: McCann was already fighting an uphill battle in his attempts to reach his 1,000th plate appearance across the 2017-2018 season (a threshold which would have triggered his vesting option). At the outset of 2018, he needed a career-high 601 PA, and after undergoing knee surgery that knocked him out of the lineup for all of July and August, his chances of achieving that lofty goal were squelched entirely.

Ervin Santana: We had already written off any chance of Santana’s option vesting all the way back in May, when he hadn’t yet taken the field due to finger injury issues. While he did manage to get back to the mound for five starts, he’d have needed 200 innings in order to qualify for a $14MM guarantee in 2019. That was never going to happen for a pitcher who made his season debut on July 25th.

Logan Morrison: After a promising 2017 season that saw Morrison launch a career-high 38 bombs, the lefty-hitting first baseman was unable to find a team willing to buy into his newfound success. The Twins, however, gave him a one-year pact with a $8MM club option for 2019 ($1MM buyout) that would vest if he took 600 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Morrison’s performance has taken a considerable downturn this season; that dive can largely be attributed to nagging hip issues that ultimately necessitated season-ending surgery. During that procedure, he had a torn labrum repaired and a bone spur removed. That, of course, took the possibility of triggering his vesting option off the table, as his plate appearance total sits at just 359 on the year.

Cubs Select Allen Webster, Transfer Brandon Morrow To 60-Day DL

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The Cubs have selected the contract of right-hander Allen Webster and moved Brandon Morrow to the 60-day disabled list to open a roster spot, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Chicago had announced yesterday that Morrow would not return in 2018.

Now 28 years of age, Webster once rated as one of the game’s top overall prospects but has never lived up to that considerable potential. The journeyman righty has spent time in the Majors with the Red Sox and Diamondbacks and has also appeared in the upper minors with the Dodgers, Rangers and Cubs. Beyond all that, he spent the 2016 season pitching for the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization, albeit with generally unfavorable results.

Webster hasn’t been in the Majors since 2015 but has been excellent since debuting for the organization this summer, in an admittedly tiny sample of work. Through 17 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA with an outstanding 24-to-3 K/BB ratio, one homer allowed and a ground-ball rate near 60 percent.

Cubs Shut Down Brandon Morrow

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The Cubs have shut down Brandon Morrow for the remainder of the 2018 season, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein announced to reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune). Morrow has been out since mid July due to a biceps injury.

Signed to a two-year, $21MM contract on the heels of a resurgent 2017 campaign, Morrow was nothing short of excellent for the Cubs when healthy enough to take the field. In 30 2/3 innings, he racked up 22 saves and posted a 1.47 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.59 HR/9 and a career-best 51.9 percent ground-ball rate.

With Morrow out, right-hander Pedro Strop has gotten the majority of the Cubs’ save opportunities, although Strop himself has recently been hobbled by a hamstring injury and isn’t expected to return until the postseason. Right-handers Steve Cishek and Jesse Chavez have each found their way into save opportunities late in the year, and it seems likely that manager Joe Maddon will go with a matchup-based committee approach down the stretch.

Gonzales tweeted earlier in the day that right-hander Allen Webster could be a candidate to come up to the Majors if Morrow is unable to return. The top prospect-turned-journeyman hasn’t been in the Majors since 2015 but has been excellent since debuting for the organization this summer — albeit in a small sample of work. Through 17 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA with an outstanding 24-to-3 K/BB ratio, one homer allowed and a ground-ball rate near 60 percent.

Injury Updates: Morrow, Cubs, Chapman, McFarland, Liberatore

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The Cubs got some good news on Brandon Morrow today, as the closer felt good after throwing a 19-pitch simulated game.  (The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan were among those who reported the news.)  Morrow hasn’t pitched since July 15 due to biceps inflammation, and as recently as 10 days ago, manager Joe Maddon expressed some doubt that Morrow would be able to pitch again this season.  In the wake of today’s simulated outing, Morrow could potentially be activated from the DL in time for at least part of the Cubs’ series against the Diamondbacks, which begins on Monday.  Morrow won’t be used as a closer right away, Maddon said, as the team will ease the righty back into action by keeping him on pitch counts and avoiding using him in back-to-back games.  Even in this limited capacity, Morrow’s impending return is nice boost for the Cubs’ postseason chances, as the veteran had a sterling 1.47 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 3.44 K/BB rate over his first 30 2/3 innings in a Chicago uniform.

Here are some more injury updates from around baseball…

  • In other Cubs injury news, Maddon told Sahadev Sharma (Twitter link) and other reporters that Jason Heyward could return from the DL as early as today after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury.  Kyle Schwarber hasn’t played since September 10 due to a bad back, though the slugger could be available to pinch-hit today.
  • Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman felt good after a bullpen session today, and he’ll throw a simulated game on Monday or Tuesday, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweets.  If all goes well, Chapman is on pace to be activated from the disabled list sometime this week.  Chapman hit the DL due to knee inflammation on August 22, and there was even some concern that the problem could sideline the closer for the rest of the regular season.  Now, however, it looks as if Chapman will be back on the field and get some time to work off the rust before the postseason.
  • Diamondbacks southpaw T.J. McFarland hasn’t pitched since September 8 due to elbow soreness, though the problem appears to be only a bone spur rather than a more serious UCL issue, FOX Sports Arizona’s Jody Jackson reports (via Twitter).  McFarland is back to playing catch with the hopes of a return to the mound.  The left-hander has been a force for the D’Backs this season, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 67.9% grounder rate over 72 relief innings.
  • Free agent reliever Adam Liberatore will require 6-8 weeks of recovery time after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports (Twitter link).  The procedure isn’t expected to have any impact on Liberatore’s readiness for the 2019 season, though it will obviously slow his chances of immediately catching on with a new team.  The left-hander was limited by knee problems this season and a forearm strain in 2017, and thus he has thrown just 16 1/3 Major League innings total in 2017-18.  When healthy, Liberatore has looked like a solid relief option, posting a 3.55 ERA, 9.4 K/9, and 2.58 K/BB rate over 88 2/3 career frames for the Dodgers, who released Liberatore last week.

Pedro Strop Out For Rest Of Regular Season

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TODAY: With an MRI revealing a moderate hamstring strain, Strop won’t return in the regular season, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat was among those to report on Twitter. His postseason availability remains to be seen.

YESTERDAY: Cubs reliever Pedro Strop pulled up lame after grounding into a double play late in tonight’s contest. He says he expects to miss at least a couple of weeks, as Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune tweets, further depleting the late-inning ranks of the Chicago pen at a critical juncture.

Strop was only up to the plate because the heavily worked relief unit was left without other desirable options. Despite a bases-loaded, one-out opportunity, the Cubs sent the veteran hurler up in anticipation of asking him to throw a second inning to lock up a win.

As it turned out, the club won, but Strop was unable to make it back onto the hill. He and skipper Joe Maddon confirmed after the game that it’s a hamstring issue. Understandably, full details of the injury remain unknown at this time.

In large part, Strop’s recovery timeline will simply depend upon how quickly he responds. Perhaps, though, we can expect further indication as to expectations once he’s examined fully in the coming days.

The news leaves the Cubs without their first and second choices in the closer’s role. Top reliever Brandon Morrow is already on the shelf and facing an uncertain path back to the MLB roster. In his stead, Strop has increasingly operated in the ninth inning. Over twenty appearances since the return from the All-Star break, Strop has recorded 11 saves.

At this point, there’s not much to be done but to hope for the best with regard to both righties. Significant outside acquisitions, after all, aren’t a realistic possibility. (Though trades are still possible, through the revocable waiver process, any players changing hands at this juncture are not eligible to participate in the postseason.)

As with Morrow, the 33-year-old Strop is a key piece even before factoring in any added value in a closing capacity. Through 58 frames this year, Strop owns a 2.33 ERA — his fifth-straight season of sub-3.00 ERA pitching in Chicago. After all, going to the next man up still means reducing the quality of the options in the earlier innings, which could lead to increased demands on what’s already a less-than-dominant rotation.

Even if Strop is able to recover by the start of the postseason, any intervening absence will certainly impact the club’s efforts to hold off the Brewers and Cardinals in the division. That makes for an increased challenge for Maddon and his charges, though it might also lead to an even more interesting race for fans of these three teams.

Yu Darvish Undergoes Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery

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Right-hander Yu Darvish underwent an arthroscopic debridement of his right elbow today, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). The procedure came on the heels of a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews. The surgery doesn’t impact Darvish’s timeline to return to the Cubs, as he was already down for the season due to a stress reaction in his elbow, and he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training 2019.

The operation is the latest data point in a nightmarish first season of Darvish’s six-year, $126MM contract with the Cubs. The right-hander made just eight starts for the team in 2018, missing time on the disabled list due to an assortment of arm-related injuries before news of the stress reaction in his elbow definitively brought his season to a close. Though his timeline remains unchanged, the optics won’t win Darvish any more support among a Cubs fanbase that has spent much of the season lamenting the signing as he’s struggled through his various injuries.

Neither Darvish nor fellow free-agent signee Tyler Chatwood (three years, $38MM) has paid dividends for the Cubs, though Chicago nonetheless holds a two-game lead over the Brewers in the National League Central with 18 games left to play. Though their high-priced pair of offseason additions didn’t pan out (at least not yet), president of baseball ops Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer were proactive on the trade market in looking to bolster the club this summer, most notably adding lefty Cole Hamels and infielder Daniel Murphy in a pair of swaps. Hamels, in particular, has been a godsend for skipper Joe Maddon’s rotation, hurling 50 2/3 innings of 1.42 ERA ball through the same number of starts Darvish made (eight).

Chicago still owes the 32-year-old Darvish a hefty $101MM over the next five seasons as part of his front-loaded deal, so the organization has little choice but to hope that an extended period of rest will allow him to return to form, at least to some extent, in 2019 and beyond. Darvish did average 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 2018, and his velocity was right in line with its previous levels, so there’s some cause for optimism. He’ll need to rein in his control (4.7 BB/9, 1.58 HR/9) moving forward if he’s to truly be an asset in the rotation, though.

Drew Smyly Will Not Return In 2018

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The Cubs decided yesterday that lefty Drew Smyly will not make it back onto the MLB roster this season, as Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com was among those to report (Twitter links). Instead, he’ll focus on preparing himself for a full and healthy 2019 campaign.

Smyly, who is now 29 years of age, signed a two-year deal with the Chicago organization last winter after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June of 2017. It includes a $10MM guarantee with $6MM in available incentives for the 2019 campaign.

There had been some hope all along that Smyly could represent a notable late-season addition. Particularly with the problems surrounding many of the team’s other key offseason pitching additions, it’d be nice to have the southpaw available. High-priced righty Yu Darvish is done for the year, while fellow rotation addition Tyler Chatwood has not worked out. In the pen, closer Brandon Morrow is still trying to get back from injury and LOOGY Brian Duensing has endured a miserable campaign.

Surely, with the division race still very much in the air, the Cubs would have given Smyly a look if he was truly prepared. He was able to make a single rehab appearance, but evidently did not respond well enough to make it worthwhile to continue pressing for a 2018 return.

Of course, the contract was signed with full knowledge that there were good odds the first season would be a wash. The Cubs hoped, mostly, that they’d recoup their investment in the 2019 campaign. It’ll be interesting to see to what extent the front office relies upon Smyly in structuring the approaching offseason. At the very least, he’ll be seen as an important part of the depth picture, in the rotation and perhaps also the bullpen, but it’ll be hard to allocate too much faith until he gets on the mound in camp. With no small amount of uncertainty in the rotation mix, the organization figures to face some tough roster questions — beginning with a decision on the team’s option over resurgent veteran Cole Hamels.

Quick Hits: Gore, Trout, Zobrist, Orioles

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After spending parts of five seasons in the big leagues, Terrance Gore finally collected his first Major League hit, notching a single during the Cubs’ 10-3 loss to the Nationals yesterday in the first game of a double-header.  Though Gore has appeared in 55 games since the start of the 2014 season, he has only 16 career plate appearances due to his exclusive usage as a pinch-runner and late-inning defensive sub.  Gore’s speed made him a valuable roster piece during the Royals’ two postseason runs in 2014 and 2015, and he’ll likely see similar work for the Cubs down the stretch this season and potentially into October.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • The Angels are expected to approach Mike Trout about an extension this winter, which The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) feels could determine whether or not the team would ever consider trading the game’s best player.  Management has been adamantly opposed to the thought of dealing Trout in the past, and the general feeling is that Arte Moreno wouldn’t okay a Trout trade as long as he owns the Angels.  If Trout declines an extension or gives an indication that he’ll test free agency when his current contract is up after the 2020 season, however, Rosenthal feels that the Angels “would know where they stood” in counting the superstar outfielder as part of their long-term plans.  The Halos could still just aim to build around Trout over the next two seasons or, conceivably, at least think about the possibility of a trade that could instantly add a lot of young talent to the Angels’ organization.  “One of the best talents in the history of the game is rarely explored in the market. A team might be willing to do something absolutely insane to acquire him. We just don’t know,” one rival executive said about a potential Trout trade.
  • As you might expect, Ben Zobrist has no regrets about signing with the Cubs in the 2015-16 offseason, the veteran super-utilityman tells The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney.  The decision has already led to one World Series ring for Zobrist, and unlike his other suitors that winter (a list that includes the Giants, Mets, and Nationals), the Cubs are still postseason contenders in 2018.  Zobrist has strongly rebounded from a down year in 2017 to hit .313/.387/.458 over 443 PA for the Cubs this season, so it’s fair to say that the team is also quite satisfied in its decision giving Zobrist a four-year, $56MM deal that winter.
  • The Orioles are lacking in multi-positional players, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes, giving the team yet another area to address as it enters a rebuild period.  Not even any of the players acquired by the O’s in their deadline deals looks like a candidate for such a role in the future, though the team will be looking at what Jonathan Villar, Breyvic Valera, and Steve Wilkerson can do at multiple positions.

2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions

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With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.

Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.

In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.

David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.

[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]

Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.

Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.

Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.

Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.

Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.

Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.

Central Notes: Baez, Miller, Morrow, Kang, Kuhl

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Some would accuse statistically-inclined baseball fans and (in particular) writers of sapping the joy out of the game. Quite often, though, that approach to America’s Pastime offers avenues for extending the exhilaration of the game as observed in real-time. Today’s offering from Craig Edwards of Fangraphs is one such example. In it, he examines — and endeavors to value — the bewitching effects Cubs star Javy Baez seemingly has on opposing defenders when he’s buzzing around the basepaths.

Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:

  • There’s good news for the Indians on the progress of southpaw Andrew Miller, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. The key reliever says he’s feeling good after a well-placed cortisone shot to his shoulder. That has given all involved some optimism that he’ll not only return late in the season, but will hit the ground running in time to prepare for the postseason. As Miller puts it: “I do feel it’s all in line right now and we’re getting ready to take off.” Of course, Miller’s showing the rest of the way will also be a major factor in deciding the outcome of his forthcoming trip onto the open market.
  • A compelling postseason effort last year from Brandon Morrow was no doubt fresh on the collective mind of the Cubs organization when it signed him to be the team’s next closer. Though Morrow has been outstanding, he’s now dealing with arm issues and seemingly facing a tougher path back than Miller. As Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports, Morrow will attempt to throw from the mound on Sunday in a test that could make or break his hope to begin working toward a late-September return.
  • While there aren’t any postseason implications involved, the Pirates are hoping to get two of their players back as well, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Whether or not that’ll come at the MLB level isn’t yet clear, but the Bucs say they want to find “some type of competition” to end the year for infielder Jung Ho Kang and righty Chad Kuhl. Both have missed lengthy stretches, Kang with a wrist injury that arose in the wake of a an even longer layoff due to a DUI conviction and Kuhl with arm troubles. As Brink notes, it seems Kang’s option will likely be declined regardless, but the club still stands to gain information that could help dictate whether it pursues a reunion (and, if so, at what price). As for Kuhl, team director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk says the organization “would like him to get up to game intensity, game speed, before the end of the season so he has a basic general health status on the forearm and the elbow” — that is, the two areas that have caused problems for him thus far.
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