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Injury Notes: Healy, Sheriff, Rizzo, J.C. Ramirez

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Mariners first baseman Ryon Healy showed up to the team’s clubhouse today in a walking boot; he twisted his ankle in a postgame workout, says Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. It’s been described as a “pretty bad sprain”, and Healy will have an MRI soon. The expectation seems to be that he will require a DL stint, though the severity of the injury is unclear at this time. Healy provided the heroics in last night’s win; it seems likely that Dan Vogelbach will receive everyday at-bats in his absence.

More injury items from around the league…

  • Cardinals left-hander Ryan Sheriff has been placed on the DL with a toe injury; the team has recalled right-hander John Brebbia from Triple-A Memphis in a related move. Sheriff was added to the roster with the news that Brett Cecil would be out for an extended period of time; he allowed one earned run in his 2 2/3 innings of work this season. Sheriff also managed a 3.14 ERA last season in 14 1/3 innings of work for the Cardinals.
  • Anthony Rizzo has missed a couple of games for the Cubs due to back tightness, says Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. The first baseman’s back has evidently been bothering him ever since the club’s trip to Cincinnati. Rizzo has just three hits (including one home run) in 32 plate appearances to begin the season.
  • J.C. Ramirez is officially headed to the DL with forearm issues, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. We noted earlier that the righty had been experiencing forearm tightness; he now joins fellow Angels starters Matt Shoemaker and Andrew Heaney on the disabled list, leaving the club incredibly thin in the rotation beyond Garrett Richards, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Skaggs. Parker Bridwell and Nick Tropeano seem to be the likeliest candidates to get rotation attention, but for the time being the club has recalled relievers Felix Pena and Eduardo Paredes (righty reliever Akeel Morris was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake).

Cubs Claim Cory Mazzoni

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The Cubs have claimed righty Cory Mazzoni off waivers from the Dodgers, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). That’s a reversal of a recent transaction in which the 28-year-old went from Chicago to Los Angeles.

Mazzoni has had no success in minimal MLB opportunities and was knocked around this spring. He’s also not far removed from a significant shoulder surgery that limited him to just two appearances in 2016 and 38 1/3 total innings last year. Evidently, though, these large-budget contenders have identified something about the former second-round draft pick.

Dodgers Designate Trayce Thompson, Claim Cory Mazzoni From Cubs

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The Dodgers have claimed right-hander Cory Mazzoni off waivers from the Cubs, the team announced on Twitter.  Mazzoni has been optioned to Triple-A.  To create roster space, outfielder Trayce Thompson has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Thompson posted an .896 OPS over 135 plate appearances as a rookie with the White Sox in 2015, and came to L.A. as part of the three-team trade with the Sox and Reds (the same deal that also sent Todd Frazier to Chicago and Scott Schebler to Cincinnati).  Between that rookie performance and a strong start as a Dodger in 2016, it looked as if Thompson was on his way to becoming a key piece in the Los Angeles outfield, though his season was prematurely ended by a pair of back fractures.  Still hampered by injury and recovery last season, Thompson hit .212/.269/.363 over 369 PA at the Triple-A level and appeared in just 27 games for the Dodgers.

With Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig slated for everyday duty in center and right field, the Dodgers had a multitude of options for the left field and backup outfield spots, including Matt Kemp, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles, and prospect Alex Verdugo.  It could be that the Dodgers’ inability to trade Kemp and his big contract led to Thompson’s situation and the roster crunch, as it seems as though Kemp and Pederson will begin the year in a righty/lefty platoon in left field.  Thompson is out of options, which makes the Dodgers’ decision to designate him rather than just keep Toles and Verdugo in the minors something of a curious one, as now L.A. could lose Thompson to any team that issues a claim for his services.

Mazzoni has been rocked to the tune of a 17.28 ERA over his 16 2/3 career big league innings, and he missed almost all of 2016 recovering from shoulder surgery.  The righty is switching teams for the second time this offseason, as the Cubs previously claimed him off waivers from the Padres back in November.  A second-round pick for the Mets in the 2011 draft, Mazzoni has a 3.72 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 4.02 K/BB rate over 373 frames in the New York and San Diego farm systems, working exclusively as a reliever the last three seasons.

Cubs Notes: Maddon, Hendricks

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Joe Maddon aims to keep managing for at least five more years, which would take him beyond both his current deal with the Cubs and past his 68th birthday, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. (Maddon had previously made similar comments to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.) The Cubs have yet to speak to Maddon about an extension, with GM Jed Hoyer that any discussions between the two sides won’t be made public, though there isn’t yet any immediate need for talks given that Maddon is still under contract through the 2019 campaign.  At age 64, Maddon is the oldest manager in baseball, though by all appearances he still connects with younger players as well as any skipper.  His clear desire is to stay with the Cubs, as Maddon said “I can’t imagine doing this anywhere else, I really can’t.  I’m very loyal to groups.  It also comes down to whether the Cubs want me or not, too. That’s really what it comes down to.”

  • Kyle Hendricks isn’t scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2020 season, and the Cubs right-hander tells The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (subscription required) that he isn’t yet thinking about a potential contract extension with the team.  While Hendricks is taking a broader look at the game’s overall business due to his role as the Cubs’ assistant MLBPA representatives, his view when it comes to his own performance is “If you do the things out on the field, it’s going to end up taking care of itself.”  Hendricks will earn $4.175MM this season after agreeing to a deal to avoid arbitration with the Cubs, and his emergence as a front-of-the-rotation starter certainly puts him in line for more healthy salaries before he reaches the open market, unless Chicago looks to lock him up beforehand.

Chris Gimenez Has June 1 Opt-Out Date

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  • Cubs catcher Chris Gimenez has a June 1 opt-out date in the minor league contract he signed over the winter, Bruce Levine of 670thescore tweets. Gimenez isn’t on the Cubs’ season-opening roster, but he’ll give them some veteran depth behind Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini for at least a couple months.

Victor Caratini Will Be Cubs' No. 2 Catcher

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  • The Cubs are going with Victor Caratini, not Chris Gimenez, to back up starting catcher Willson Contreras, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Thanks to his well-known rapport with new Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish from their days in Texas, Gimenez seemed like the front-runner for the job at the outset of spring training; instead, he’ll head to Triple-A Iowa, per Wittenmyer. The 24-year-old Caratini, whom MLB.com ranks as the Cubs’ No. 8 prospect, hit .254/.333/.356 across 66 plate appearances during his first MLB action last season.

Cubs To Release Peter Bourjos

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The Cubs will release outfielder Peter Bourjos, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter). Chicago decided not to add him to the active roster in order to keep an additional reliever.

Soon to turn 31, the fleet-footed Bourjos could still hold appeal to other organizations as a reserve outfielder — particularly those looking for a player capable of lining up in center. He posted a .317/.356/.366 slash in his 45 plate appearances this spring.

Bourjos has enjoyed some high-quality MLB campaigns in the past, but has functioned more as a light-hitting reserve in recent seasons. In his best season, a 2011 effort with the Angels, Bourjos posted a 114 wRC+ and graded as a high-end fielder and baserunner.

The output has generally declined in all areas of late. Metrics have viewed Bourjos more as a solid than a great defender in recent seasons. While he still gets high marks for his overall baserunning, Bourjos hasn’t really been a major threat to steal of late. And he owns only a .231/.288/.366 batting line over the past four campaigns.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Cubs landed the biggest prize of the 2017-18 free agent class, and stayed entirely within free agency for pitching staff upgrades.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Cubs 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Cubs Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

After the Dodgers denied the Cubs’ bid to return to the World Series, a coaching staff shake-up was the first order of business for Chicago.  Longtime pitching coach Chris Bosio was the first casualty, with hitting coach John Mallee being fired shortly thereafter.  Jim Hickey, with his history of serving as Joe Maddon’s pitching coach with the Rays, replaced Bosio.  Chili Davis takes over for Mallee.  The Cubs also lost Dave Martinez, who was hired to serve as the Nationals’ manager.

The Cubs spent much of November and early December courting Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.  While they were one of seven finalists, the Cubs were a long shot as a National League club located in the Midwest.  Once Ohtani chose the Angels, focus turned to the Cubs’ more likely free agent pursuits, which centered entirely on pitching.  Starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey became free agents after making 60 starts for the 2017 club, and the Cubs sought to replace them from outside of the organization.  After coming up short on a very different pitcher out of Japan, returning expat Miles Mikolas, the Cubs signed former Rockie Tyler Chatwood to a surprisingly large contract for a pitcher coming off a 4.69 ERA.  Cubs president Theo Epstein later explained to Jon Greenberg of The Athletic in late January, “He was really popular. A lot of teams saw beyond his basic performance stats and looked deeper into his ability. He was at the right price point and had a ton of suitors, so that drove the price up.”  Now that he’s out of Colorado, Chatwood has several things going for him: his age (28), his ability to induce groundballs, and a fastball approaching 95 miles per hour.  Though it was surprising to see Chatwood land at nearly $13MM a year, he’s a solid upside choice to replace Lackey.

Throughout the offseason, the Cubs declined to close the door on former ace Arrieta, though they didn’t make much effort to bring him back, either.  Though the Joe Maddon/Jim Hickey connection to free agent Alex Cobb led many to predict a match with the Cubs, the team instead aimed higher for their other rotation addition with a run at Yu Darvish.  At the same time, the Cubs quietly made a different free agent signing with a Maddon/Hickey connection, lefty Drew Smyly.  Smyly had undergone Tommy John surgery in June of 2017, and was signed with an eye toward the 2019 rotation.  If Smyly returns to full health and ability for 2019, the Cubs will have a good kind of problem on their hands in that they’ll have six established starting pitchers under control for that season.

According to Epstein, it was around the December Winter Meetings that the Cubs realized “we might be in a position to end up at least being a contender for Darvish with a contract that we could tolerate,” reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Cubs brass met with Darvish in Texas, and it seemed possible the two sides could hammer out a megadeal before the end of the year.  Instead, the Cubs’ December dealings, aside from Smyly, were the bullpen additions of Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek.  Morrow, 33, will serve as the Cubs’ closer.  While his contract is reasonable, the risk comes in the Cubs’ reliance upon a pitcher with Morrow’s lengthy injury history and heavy 2017 postseason workload.  Given the volatility of relievers, the contract itself is no riskier than those given to Wade Davis, Mike Minor, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, and others.

January came and went without a Darvish deal, part of one of the strangest offseasons in this website’s history.  Instead, the Cubs spent that month coming to terms with star third baseman Kris Bryant on a record arbitration deal, and also completing their bullpen additions by bringing lefty Brian Duensing back on a mild discount.  The Cubs’ bullpen holdovers are Duensing, Carl Edwards Jr., Mike Montgomery, and Pedro Strop.  Replacing Wade Davis, Hector Rondon, Justin Grimm, and Koji Uehara are Morrow, Cishek, a full season of Justin Wilson, and perhaps Eddie Butler and a less-established arm.  It feels like the Cubs could have added one more late-inning piece to the pen.

The Cubs saved their biggest splash for February, when they agreed to a six-year, $126MM deal with Darvish.  The Dodgers, Twins, and Brewers were among the teams the Cubs beat out for the righty.  Darvish’s $21MM average annual value was surprisingly low.  We had expected an AAV in the $25-27MM range, given previous contracts signed by David Price, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and the Cubs’ own Jon Lester.  Like other big market teams, the Cubs are intent on staying below the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold, and the sixth year given to Darvish helped accomplish that.  From Darvish’s point of view, the opt-out after 2019 has significant value: about $20MM, estimates MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  Darvish will be 33 when the clause comes due, and he’ll have to decide whether he can top four years and $81MM on the 2019-20 free agent market.

Questions Remaining

The Cubs appear to have $13MM or less for trade deadline acquisitions.  Regarding his trade deadline payroll flexibility, Epstein said, “We do have some, not a ton.”  Epstein admitted, “One of our goals was to put the team together this year in a way that would maybe allow us to reset under the CBT threshold.” This is not actually a reset, since the Cubs were not over the CBT threshold in 2017.  Regardless, it’s possible the luxury tax threshold stopped the Cubs from assembling a super bullpen despite their relief pitching problems in the playoffs.  Aside from the health of Morrow, much depends on southpaw Justin Wilson, who flopped after joining the Cubs last year at the trade deadline.  It’s difficult to say exactly why the Cubs didn’t acquire additional relievers – it may be that they’re completely satisfied with their bullpen as it stands, or don’t mind waiting until July to re-evaluate.  But since the CBT threshold may have been a factor in their bullpen budgeting, let’s explore it further.

The Cubs may be willing to exceed next year’s $206MM CBT threshold, but aim to be considered a “first-time CBT payor.”  Second-time payors pay 30% on the overage, while first-time payors pay 20%.  Avoiding the CBT threshold in 2018 also affects what the Cubs would have to surrender next year upon signing a qualified free agent.  They’d give up their second-highest draft pick regardless, but avoiding the threshold allows them to keep their fifth-highest pick and also have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K instead of $1MM.  I have to ask of the Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers: why does this difference in penalties matter so much?

Say the Cubs had gone all out and also signed Addison Reed and Mike Minor this winter, adding $17.7MM to the 2018 payroll.  That would put the team’s 2018 payroll at $202MM for luxury tax purposes.  Say they spend another $12MM on midseason acquisitions and end at $214MM for 2018.  That means they’d pay a tax of…$3.4MM.  Basically a rounding error for this franchise.  Paying the tax for a potential 2018 overage is irrelevant at this spending level.

Therefore, this has to be all about being a first-time payor in 2019 rather than a second-time payor.  If you’ll indulge me, let’s play that out for a team with a massive $275MM payroll in 2019.  On a $275MM payroll, a first-time CBT payor is penalized $28.525MM, while a second-time payor is penalized $36.15MM.  If a team is conceding being a first-time payor in 2019 (as the Cubs seem to be), being a second-time payor only results in less than $8MM in additional tax, even at a very high payroll level.  Carrying that hypothetical payroll level forward for yet another season would result in a larger hit, but it would still be less than $14MM, and from that point forward the tax rate would be the same for an organization that stayed over the luxury line.  Ah, but what about the draft pick penalty for exceeding the 2019 second surcharge threshold of $246MM?  That’ll knock your 2020 draft pick back a full ten spots.  Meaning, a good team has to pick at #37 instead of #27, something like that.  Compared to the previous CBA, where draft picks as high as 11th overall were surrendered for signing certain free agents, dropping ten spots doesn’t seem that bad.

Large market teams are treating the CBT thresholds as lines they absolutely cannot cross. Or at least that they cannot cross for consecutive years.  Rather than take that at face value, we need to ask whether the CBT thresholds are being used as a convenient excuse to spend less. The tax can be hefty, no doubt, and it is understandable that organizations already facing max penalties — particularly those that often spend well over the threshold — would look for an opportunity to reset. But the timing of entering CBT payor status does not appear to be a particularly compelling limitation on spending in and of itself.

My payroll tangent aside, the Cubs also have the question of a possible position player logjam.  On his decision not to trade anyone, Epstein told Greenberg, “We explored a lot of a different possibilities, but in the end there just wasn’t a deal available that would give us a fair return back. We didn’t want to take less talent or control just to add a pitching prospect. Balancing the roster wasn’t that fundamental to make a bad deal happen.”  The Cubs can’t be faulted for declining to sell low on Kyle Schwarber, who dedicated himself to an offseason conditioning program in the meantime.  If all of the Cubs’ many outfield and second base candidates stay healthy at once, which is unlikely, Maddon may need to make the tough decision to bench his two underperforming veterans, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. Even if that comes to pass, it’s likely preferable to taking less than fair value for a controllable young player or finding the depth lacking if is tested.

Overview

The Cubs were able to use an opt-out clause for Darvish to lower the AAV on his contract, helping the team stay below the competitive balance tax threshold.  They were able to accomplish this because other big market teams had even less space under that threshold, and small market teams couldn’t match the Cubs’ bid.  They also brought in an intriguing and relatively young fifth starter in Chatwood, resulting in what looks to be the best starting rotation of the Epstein regime.  While fresh faces in the bullpen were a given, the volatility of relief pitching makes it unclear whether the Cubs did enough in that area.  Otherwise, the team remains stacked with high quality position players.  The Cubs will likely tangle with the Nationals and Dodgers for the NL pennant once again.

How would you grade the efforts of Epstein and company? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Claim Dario Alvarez From Cubs

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The Mariners have claimed left-hander Dario Alvarez off waivers from the Cubs, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets. Alvarez will head to minor league camp with his new organization, and he’ll give the Mariners 38 players on their 40-man roster.

Alvarez, 29, debuted with the Mets back in 2014 but saw little action with them. He ended up throwing just five innings with the Mets over two seasons. Alvarez then moved on to Atlanta and Texas, where he combined for 43 frames from 2016-17. All told, Alvarez has pitched to a 5.06 ERA/5.07 FIP in the majors and logged 11.44 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 38.2 percent groundball rate. Alvarez has struggled against hitters of either handedness during his short big league career, having allowed a .378 wOBA versus righties and a .356 mark to lefties.

Despite Alvarez’s subpar production at baseball’s highest level, the Cubs signed him to a major league contract early in the winter. But he wasn’t able to stick in Chicago after allowing six earned runs on seven hits and six walks, with 11 strikeouts, over 7 1/3 spring innings. He’ll try to return to the majors with the Mariners, whose projected season-opening bullpen features fellow lefties Marc Rzepczynski and James Pazos.

Cubs To Release Justin Grimm

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The Cubs have released right-handed reliever Justin Grimm, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago (Twitter link). Grimm had previously lost an arbitration hearing against the Cubs, resulting in a $2.2MM salary for the upcoming season. However, since arb contracts aren’t fully guaranteed, the Cubs can cut him and owe him 45 days of termination pay based on the pro-rated portion of that base salary — a sum of about $541K.

Grimm, 29, struggled to a 5.53 ERA through 55 1/3 regular-season innings last year, due largely to a drastic spike in his home run rate. After averaging just 0.7 HR/9 with the Cubs from 2014-16, Grimm yielded an average of 1.95 homer per nine innings last season. This spring, he’s allowed a pair of homers and walked four in four innings with the Cubs.

Outside of the problem with the long ball, though, Grimm’s numbers weren’t entirely unappealing. He still averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball and posted a strong 9.6 K/9 mark with a slightly below-average 43.1 percent ground-ball rate. His average of 4.4 walks per nine innings pitched was a step backward from his 2016 numbers but an improvement from the 2015 season.

Overall, Grimm has been a largely durable source of strikeouts with questionable control as a member of the Cubs’ middle relief contingent, dating back to the 2013 season when Chicago acquired him from Texas in the Matt Garza swap. An infection in his finger cost him a period of 10 days this past August, and his lone other DL stint was a month-long absence for forearm inflammation early on in 2015.

Subtracting Grimm, who was out of minor league options, from the bullpen mix could pave the way for fellow out-of-options right-hander Eddie Butler to make the club. The 27-year-old Butler posted better bottom-line numbers last year (3.95 ERA in 54 2/3 innings), though he did so with an ugly 30-to-28 K/BB ratio. He’s had a much sharper spring thus far, however, and his prior work as a starter could make him better-suited for multi-inning relief appearances.

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