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Manny Machado Trade Talks Have Reportedly Accelerated

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Though there’s still four weeks until the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline, trade talks surrounding Manny Machado have “accelerated” in recent days, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Orioles, according to Rosenthal, would prefer to move Machado “sooner rather than later,” as they can extract more in a trade if the acquiring team controls Machado for three months as opposed to two months.

To this point in the summer, the teams most connected to Machado have been the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Indians. The Brewers and Cubs have been more loosely tied to Machado on the rumor mill, though Rosenthal reports that while Milwaukee is doing its due diligence, the team is unlikely to meet Baltimore’s asking price.

That, it seems, could be true of the Phillies as well. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that the Phillies should be considered “longshots” in the Machado trade sweepstakes. Zolecki writes that while the Phillies “love” Machado and plan to make a serious run at him in the offseason, the team doesn’t feel itself to be one piece away from a World Series. That, of course, makes it considerably more difficult to meet what is likely a rather lofty asking price from the O’s.

Rosenthal suggests that the D-backs and Indians could be the “most motivated” teams in the Machado market, and Zolecki, too, specifically lists the D-backs as a club likelier to acquire Machado than the Phillies.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, tweets that the Dodgers continue to “aggressively” pursue Machado, adding that the Orioles have been scouting L.A.’s system heavily and are particularly interested in Class-A Advanced right-hander Dustin May. There’d obviously be more at play than a mere one-for-one swap, but May, a third-round pick in 2016, is generally considered to be among the Dodgers’ more promising young arms. He’s off to a strong start in 2018 as well, having pitched to a 3.18 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate through 65 innings (12 starts).

Of course, there could still be other organizations involved in discussions. Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that eight teams have had at least some engagement with the O’s regarding Machado within the past ten days. That would suggest that there are at least a few mystery teams hanging around the periphery of talks.

Notable International Prospect Signings

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With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).

We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.

Onto some of the more notable signings…

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NL Notes: Arenado, Brewers, Cubs

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With Nolan Arenado scheduled to hit free agency after next season, the Rockies third baseman is sure to sign a massive contract in the near future. But Arenado tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that winning – not money – will be his top priority as he determines his future. “I don’t want to lose anymore. I just hate it,’’ said Arenado, who has only played in one playoff game since debuting in 2013 and is “jealous” of the success the NL West rival Dodgers and Giants have enjoyed in recent years. Before Arenado potentially hits free agency, he’ll be watching with interest as fellow superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado test the open market during the upcoming winter. However, given that Arenado is older than both Harper and Machado (he’ll play his age-29 season in 2020), he doesn’t expect to rake in as much money on his next contract as they will on theirs. “I’m not here to say that whatever they get, I’m going to get,” he said. “Those guys are younger. I don’t expect to get the numbers they get. But as a fan of baseball, it will be cool to see what happens. I’ll sit back this winter and watch like everybody else.’’ While the Rockies could prevent Arenado from hitting the market via an extension, he’s not going “to start the dialogue.’’ Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich seems optimistic, though, telling Nightengale “there’s no rush to force anything now” and suggesting the team and Arenado have a good relationship.

Now for the latest on a pair of NL Central teams:

  • As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches, the Brewers are “open to every possibility,” according to GM David Stearns (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). With his team in first place in the NL Central by 1 1/2 games, Stearns is “highly motivated” to make improvements, writes Haudricourt, who notes that the Brewers could opt for a high-profile addition to their lineup instead of their rotation. That could be Machado, who’d be a massive upgrade for a Brewers team that hasn’t gotten much from the shortstop position this year and sent Orlando Arcia to the minors Sunday. Machado’s not under contract beyond this season, though, and as a result, Haudricourt doesn’t expect the Brewers to end up with him.
  • The Cubs announced that they’ve placed reliever Brian Duensing on the 10-day disabled list and recalled right-hander Dillon Maples from Triple-A Iowa. The left-handed Duensing is dealing with fatigue in his pitching shoulder, which continues a less-than-ideal season for the 35-year-old. After Duensing posted an outstanding 2017 with the Cubs, they re-signed him to a two-year, $7MM deal in the offseason. The investment hasn’t paid off so far, though, as Duensing has logged a bloated 6.92 ERA with horrid strikeout and walk rates (5.88 K/9, 6.92 BB/9) in 26 innings.

Injury Notes: Darvish, Nelson, Cordero, Chapman, Strasburg, Cespedes, Font, Dunning

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With ongoing uncertainty leading to some real worry, it came as something of a relief when the Cubs announced that Yu Darvish has been diagnosed with a right elbow impingement, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic was among those to cover on Twitter. Already on the DL, Darvish will receive a cortisone shot before being examined again next week. It’s not yet known what the course will be from that point, but the club is no doubt pleased that there’s not a more significant underlying issue plaguing the high-priced hurler.

Let’s run through some other health updates of note …

  • The Brewers are still unsure when they’ll welcome back righty Jimmy Nelson, GM David Stearns tells reporters including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). “We still think Jimmy is going to pitch for us this year,” Stearns stressed. But the shoulder surgery that knocked Nelson out has required a “slower process,” says Stearns, with Nelson still “yet to pitch off a mound.” It seems there’s no chance that the Brewers will welcome back their staff ace in advance of the trade deadline, meaning they’ll need to assess their rotation without full knowledge of his ability to contribute down the stretch.
  • Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero appears quite likely to elect season-ending surgery, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell tweets. It’s still not a certainty, and the lack of urgency in making the final call — it has been under consideration for at least ten days — speaks to the general timeline. Though Cordero would miss the rest of the MLB campaign, he’d likely be ready to participate in winter ball and certainly be at full health for Spring Training next year.
  • Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman has progressed to taking swings, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He has already been out for about two weeks with a hand injury.
  • It seems there’s some cause for optimism for the Indians regarding reliever Tyler Olson. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets that Olson has been able to throw a bullpen session, which certainly indicates he’s progressing rather well from a lat injury that perhaps could have been worse.
  • Likewise, Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg turned in a surprise bullpen session, as Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com was among those to tweet. That’s the first real indication that Strasburg is ready to begin working back toward a return from shoulder inflammation in earnest.
  • In other NL East news, the Mets increasingly have a confounding situation on their hands with regard to star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. Cespedes went on the DL in the middle of May with what seemed to be a minor injury, but still has not resumed running. Skipper Mickey Callaway says the veteran is “feeling a lot better,” but there’s no real sense of a timeline.
  • Righty Wilmer Font left today’s game with a lat injury, with Rays skipper Kevin Cash saying it’s probably a serious one, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. The recently claimed righty “in all likelihood will miss significant time,” says Cash, which is quite a disappointment for all involved. Entering play today, the 28-year-old had found his groove with the Rays, turning in 22 innings of 1.64 ERA ball with 7.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9.
  • In news of longer-term consequence, the White Sox are still holding their breath with regard to well-regarded pitching prospect Dane Dunning. The team announced that he has been diagnosed with a “moderate elbow sprain that presently will not require surgery.” For the time being, he’ll rest for a while and resume throwing in about two months’ time if he’s deemed ready. That’s hardly good news, but is certainly better than the worst-case that may have been feared.

Darvish To Be Reevaluated After Experiencing Pain During Bullpen Session

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The Cubs were hopeful they’d be getting right-hander Yu Darvish back in the near future, but his return to the active roster will now be further delayed, it seems. Manager Joe Maddon told reporters (Twitter link via the Sun Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer) that Darvish’s latest bullpen session “did not go well,” adding that the righty will be reevaluated after he “felt pain on extension.” ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that the pain Darvish felt was beyond the normal soreness that might be expected when working back from an injury.

It’s been a month since the Cubs placed Darvish on the disabled list due to discomfort in his right biceps, and it doesn’t seem like the organization is sure exactly when he’ll be cleared to return to the rotation. Darvish will clearly need to ramp up on some form of rehab assignment before returning, and speculatively speaking, today’s setback makes it seem unlikely that he’ll be able to do so before the All-Star break.

Left-hander Mike Montgomery has stepped up nicely in Darvish’s place, working to a pristine 2.02 ERA in 35 1/3 innings across six starts since joining the rotation. While he’s not likely to continue at that pace, of course — fielding-independent metrics peg him in the upper-3.00s or low-4.00s in that time due largely to a .208 BABIP and an unsustainable 83.7 percent strand rate — Montgomery has certainly done enough to make the Cubs think hard about giving him a longer look in the rotation.

General manager Jed Hoyer spoke on that very subject earlier today on 670 The Score in Chicago, stating that Montgomery has “earned” an opportunity in the rotation with his high level of performance. Just how the Cubs will navigate that arrangement remains to be seen. Tyler Chatwood’s control has been an issue all season, and righty Kyle Hendricks has struggled badly in the month of June, posting a 7.03 ERA over five starts. If both Chatwood and Hendricks turn things around, and Darvish ultimately returns to good health, it’s plausible that Chicago could utilize six starters through the season’s second half. If not, perhaps Montgomery will get a longer-term look over one of the struggling arms currently in the rotation.

Of course, a hypothetical scenario in which the Cubs have six healthy and effective rotation options is a long ways from reality at this point, and the coming days will serve to inform as to just how plausible that scenario is. Said Maddon of the Darvish setback (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney): “Over the next couple days, we’ll try to figure out the next course of action. He’s so important to us and our success. We just got to try to figure it out for him and for us. He knows he’s got our support.”

Hoyer On Cubs’ Deadline Approach, Rotation

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The Cubs are 6-11 over their past 17 games and have fallen to two and half games behind the Brewers for the lead in the National League Central, but it doesn’t sound like the slump is pushing the team into any sort of panic. The Cubs, after all, are still eight games over .500 and still have an excellent +83 run differential on the season. In an appearance on the Mully & Hanley show on 670 The Score, general manager Jed Hoyer spoke of his team’s recent play and his belief that most of the keys to righting the ship are already on the roster (full audio of Hoyer’s 15-minute interview is available).

“I don’t think it necessarily changes what we’re looking for,” Hoyer said of the Cubs’ recent swoon. “I think we still feel as though this team is really capable and has a chance to be really good, and we feel like the answers are internal. But we’ll obviously try to stay nimble. If something happens on our team or there’s some reason that we feel like we need to upgrade a certain position or add to a certain position, I feel like we certainly have the ability to do that. But this year feels different than some, in that I really do feel like this team, as constructed, is capable of doing a lot of good things. I think that most of the answers are probably in that clubhouse.”

Chicago has received lackluster production thus far from its top offseason signing, Yu Darvish, who remains on the disabled list due to a biceps issue. When healthy, Darvish has posted a 4.95 ERA in 40 innings of work. While his 11.0 K/9 mark ranks among the best in the National League, he’s also averaged nearly five walks per nine innings and been far more homer-prone than usual (1.58 HR/9).

Conversely, left-hander Mike Montgomery has stepped up nicely in Darvish’s absence, tossing 35 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball across six starts in that time. Montgomery’s modest strikeout rate, 87.3 percent strand rate and .208 BABIP in that time all forecast some regression, as do his 3.63 FIP and 4.09 xFIP, but there’s little denying he’s looked like a capable rotation piece with Darvish on the mend. Hoyer once again suggested that Montgomery could continue to make some starts even once everyone is fully healthy.

“He’s been, really, a savior of our rotation in that spot,” Hoyer said of the left-hander. “…I think he’s proven that he can start in the Major Leagues. He’s been saying that for awhile, and we always believed him, but we always had the ability to have him in that sort of sixth starter/emergency role, and he understood that. … I thought Scott Boras said that really well when it comes to Albert Almora as well. This guy’s playing on a winning team, and that’s the team’s focus — not entirely on development. I think the same thing goes for Mike. He’s earned a spot in the rotation by the way he’s pitched, and I think we’ll move forward, and I think he’ll continue to do the same thing for us. I’m proud of the way he’s responded to getting an opportunity.”

Certainly, injuries could create a greater sense of urgency for the Cubs as the deadline approaches, but for the time being they look more like a club poised more to operate around the margins than to make a significant splash on the trade market. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein has already gone on record to state that all of the speculation tying the Cubs to Manny Machado from last month was “out there in fantasy land,” and while the Cubs surely figure to at least gauge the asking price on all of the market’s most intriguing trade pieces, reports since that time have downplayed the possibility of an earnest pursuit.

NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich

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There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
  • The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
  • Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.

2018 Amateur Draft Signings: 6/27/18

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s most notable signings from the first few rounds of the draft.  Scouting reports and pre-draft rankings can be found courtesy of MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two available to subscribers only)…

  • The Cubs have convinced supplemental second-round choice Cole Roederer to forego his commitment to UCLA, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). It’ll cost the team $1.2M, well over the $775,100 value that came with the 77th overall selection. Though he did not earn any top-100 tabs, Roederer placed 161st on the Baseball America board. BA credits him with “hints of all five tools and growing power,” with solid upside but also questions surrounding his relatively small stature. Clearly, the Cubs believe in Roederer, whose over-slot bonus absorbs most of the savings the team achieved from later selections.

Shae Simmons Elects Free Agency

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A day after clearing outright waivers, right-handed reliever Shae Simmons has rejected an assignment to the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate and instead elected free agency, as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets.

Simmons hasn’t been previously outrighted but does have more than three years of MLB service time (much of it spent on the MLB disabled list), which affords him the right to pass on an outright assignment and again test the open market. The Cubs ran Simmons throughout waivers in hopes of creating some roster flexibility, it seems, as they didn’t announce any form of corresponding move along with his outright, and their 40-man roster remains at 39 players.

Now 27 years of age, Simmons is a ways removed from an impressive rookie campaign with the Braves back in 2014. The former 22nd-round pick was never considered an elite prospect but debuted to toss 21 2/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with a 23-to-11 K/BB ratio, just one homer allowed and 52.8 percent ground-ball rate. At the very least, Simmons looked to have earned himself a bullpen gig for the following season — and potentially for years to come — but he required offseason Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2015 season.

Upon returning in 2016, Simmons tossed 25 innings between the Majors and minors, generally faring well along the way. He was traded alongside Mallex Smith to the Mariners in a deal that netted the Braves pitching prospect Luiz Gohara, and he went on to spend most of the 2017 season on the 60-day DL in Seattle with a flexor strain.

The Cubs still saw enough in Simmons that they signed him to a split Major League deal this winter and placed him on the 40-man roster, but the righty has struggled to this point in the year down in Iowa. Through 22 2/3 innings, Simmons had logged a 5.56 ERA with as many walks as strikeouts (21 apiece). While his 50.8 percent ground-ball rate and the one homer he’d allowed were both encouraging signs, Simmons’ lack of control proved too detrimental to overcome. Simmons was still averaging 96 mph on his heater with the Mariners in 2017, and he can still miss bats and generate grounders, so it seems likely that another team will take a chance on him as long as he’s healthy (barring a reunion with the Cubs on a new minor league deal).

Cubs Place Kris Bryant On Disabled List

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The Cubs announced a lengthy series of roster moves Tuesday, most notably placing Kris Bryant on the disabled list (retroactive to June 23) due to left shoulder inflammation. Chicago also placed right-hander Justin Hancock on the DL due to inflammation in his right shoulder and optioned righty Duane Underwood Jr. back to Triple-A Iowa. In place of that trio, the Cubs are calling up right-hander Dillon Maples, right-hander Luke Farrell and infielder David Bote.

It’s the first career trip to the disabled list for Bryant, who entered play today hitting .280/.383/.481 with nine homers, 20 doubles and three triples so far on the season. There’s no timetable available yet for Bryant, who hasn’t played since this past Friday.

The 27-year-old Hancock has posted a strong 1.46 ERA in 12 2/3 innings for the Cubs so far, though his 11-to-9 K/BB ratio is far less encouraging. Underwood, 23, recently made his MLB debut in a spot start, tossing four innings of one-run ball.

Of the names being recalled to join the big league roster, Maples is the most noteworthy. The 26-year-old flamethrower is widely considered to be among Chicago’s best prospects, and the organization hopes that he can help to anchor the relief corps for years to come. If that’s to happen, though, Maples will have to considerably improve his control. The righty has the ability to wholly overpower opposing hitters, as evidenced by averaging better than 14 strikeouts per nine innings pitched across three minor league levels over the past two seasons. However, Maples’ control has been terrible in that time as well; he averaged 5.3 walks per nine innings pitched in 2017 and has issued 24 free passes in 25 1/3 innings with Triple-A Iowa so far in 2018.

Bote has been up and down with the Cubs this season, appearing in a total of eight games and hitting .263/.286/.368. The 25-year-old has a career .282/.360/.510 slash in 70 Triple-A games and has experience at every position other than catcher (including seven innings of minor league relief pitching). Farrell, 27, was claimed off waivers last October and has already pitched 20 innings in the Majors for the Cubs this year, recording a 4.50 ERA with 30 strikeouts against eight walks.

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