MLBTR Podcast: Justin Steele, Triston McKenzie, And Tons Of Prospect Promotions
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Cubs’ rotation outlook after Justin Steele’s UCL surgery (1:15)
- The Guardians designating Triston McKenzie for assignment (7:30)
- The Athletics promoting prospect Nick Kurtz (16:10)
- The White Sox promoting prospect Edgar Quero (20:55)
- The Rays promoting prospect Chandler Simpson (26:45)
- The Marlins promoting prospect Agustín Ramírez (33:30)
- The Twins promoting prospect Luke Keaschall (38:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Can high-caliber early-career players like Paul Skenes demand trades or are they stuck where they are? (44:45)
- With constant injuries and DFAs, could the new CBA lead to some changes in roster rules? (49:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- Free Agent Power Rankings – listen here
- Vlad’s Massive Deal, Extensions for Merrill and Marte, And Quinn Priester Traded – listen here
- Garrett Crochet’s Extension, Problems In Atlanta, And Other Early-Season Storylines – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images
Cubs Sign Nicky Lopez, Designate Gage Workman
The Cubs announced Wednesday that they’ve signed infielder Nicky Lopez to a big league deal. Infielder and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman was designated for assignment to open a spot on the roster. Photographer Sam Bernero first spotted Lopez heading into Wrigley Field this afternoon and tweeted out a photo she snapped. Shane Riordan of 670 The Score subsequently reported that Lopez, an Octagon client, was signing a major league deal.
Chicago also selected the contract of recently acquired lefty Drew Pomeranz, optioned righty Gavin Hollowell to Triple-A Iowa and transferred lefty Justin Steele from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL (thus opening a 40-man spot for Pomeranz). Steele recently underwent elbow surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season, so his move to the 60-day IL was a formality.
Lopez was with the Cubs as a non-roster invitee in spring training but didn’t make the Opening Day club. He opted out of that deal and signed with the Angels, who needed some infield depth due to a handful of injuries. The Halos reinstated shortstop Zach Neto last week and designated Lopez for assignment, after which he elected free agency.
The 30-year-old Lopez appeared in five games and was hitless in six plate appearances in his short stint with the Angels. He’ll hope for a larger look with the Cubs, who have some questions in the infield after optioning struggling top prospect Matt Shaw and seeing the now-designated-for-assignment Workman struggle at the hot corner as well. Veteran utilityman Jon Berti has been seeing more time at third base recently, though he hasn’t hit much either — just .250/.344/.250 in an admittedly small sample of 32 plate appearances.
Lopez, like Berti, brings a versatile and high quality glove to the Cubs. He’s spent the bulk of his career in the middle infield where he grades as a plus-plus defender at both positions. He’s less experienced at third base but still has strong grades in nearly 400 frames there (7 Defensive Runs Saved, 6 Outs Above Average).
Excellent as Lopez is on the defensive side of the coin, his bat leaves plenty to be desired. He’s a career .247/.311/.313 hitter in 2352 plate appearances at the MLB level, and even that modest production is skewed by what now looks like a clear outlier campaign in 2021, when he batted .300/.365/.378. In three-plus seasons since that time, Lopez has limped to a .232/.301/.286 line between the Royals, Braves, White Sox and Angels.
Workman, 25, was selected out of the Tigers organization in December’s Rule 5 Draft and made the Opening Day roster after he hit .364/.420/.705 in 50 spring plate appearances. He hasn’t carried that outstanding production over to the regular season. He’s appeared in nine games but tallied only 15 plate appearances, during which he’s gone 2-for-14 with a walk. Workman never got a true look with the Cubs, which isn’t surprising, as it’s difficult for contending clubs to carry a career minor leaguer who can’t be optioned to the minors.
Workman is viewed as a plus defender at third base with plenty of raw power and too much swing-and-miss in his offensive profile. He spent the 2024 season with the Tigers’ Double-A affiliate, where he batted .280/.366/.476 with 18 homers, 30 steals, an 11.7% walk rate and a bloated 27.5% strikeout rate in his third season of action at that level. He’s yet to appear in a Triple-A game.
Now that he’s been designated for assignment, Workman will be placed on outright waivers and offered to the rest of the league (excluding the Tigers). If he goes unclaimed, he will by rule be offered back to the Tigers for $50K.
The veteran Pomeranz hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2021 due to a lengthy series of injuries. He inked a minor league deal with the Mariners in the offseason and tossed 9 2/3 frames with their Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma before being traded to the Cubs for cash. He allowed five earned runs (4.66 ERA) on nine hits and six walks (plus two hit batsmen) during that short stint with Tacoma. Clearly, Pomeranz’s command was an issue, but he also fanned 14 of his 43 opponents (32.6%) and sat 92.3 mph on his heater — a good bit north of the 90-91 mph he was sitting at during minor league stints with the Padres and Dodgers over the past two seasons.
Cubs, Michael Fulmer Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Michael Fulmer, per Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register. The BBI Sports Group client is headed to Triple-A Iowa for the time being. Fulmer was designated for assignment by the Red Sox last week and recently rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
Fulmer, 32, spent the 2023 season in the Cubs’ bullpen and logged 57 innings with a 4.42 ERA, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 11.8% walk rate. That marks Fulmer’s last full, healthy season. The Cubs announced that October that Fulmer had undergone a UCL procedure in his right elbow, which wiped out his entire 2024 campaign.
Fulmer signed with the Red Sox on a two-year minor league contract and spent last season rehabbing with the organization. Interestingly, he was stretched out to work multiple innings in spring training this year and began the 2025 campaign as a starter with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate in Worcester. Fulmer pitched well in 11 2/3 minor league frames, logging a 3.09 ERA with an 18-to-6 K/BB ratio (37.5 K%, 12.5 BB%). He made one big league appearance with the Sox, yielding three runs in 2 2/3 innings, before being designated for assignment.
Rotation work is hardly a new role for Fulmer, who not only broke into the majors as a starter but captured 2016 American League Rookie of the Year honors while pitching in that role with the Tigers. Fulmer was a key member of Detroit’s rotation from 2016-18 before injuries set in and threw his career into a tumultuous state. He underwent an ulnar nerve transposition procedure late in the 2017 season, had surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in 2018 and missed all of the 2019 campaign following Tommy John surgery. Fulmer returned to make 10 starts in the shortened 2020 season, but he was shelled for an ERA just shy of 9.00.
In 2021, Detroit began transitioning Fulmer to a relief role, and he hit the ground running. He pitched exclusively in relief from May 5 onward that year and recorded a pristine 2.25 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. By season’s end, he was closing games for A.J. Hinch.
That kicked off a nice three-year run of bullpen work between the Tigers, Twins (who acquired him at the trade deadline in 2022) and Cubs (who signed him as a free agent in the 2022-23 offseason). In that time, Fulmer pitched 190 1/3 innings with a 3.55 ERA, 19 saves, 45 holds, a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk rate. He wasn’t quite an elite reliever, but he was effective and seemed to have fully acclimated to high-leverage settings.
Now back with the Cubs, Fulmer can be deployed in a variety of ways. If Chicago is intrigued by the idea of continuing to stretch him out as a starter, he’d make plenty of sense as rotation depth. Ace Justin Steele‘s season is over due to elbow surgery, and young righty Javier Assad has yet to pitch in 2025 due to an oblique injury. He’d been on track for an early May return but exited a rehab start yesterday due to what appeared to be renewed discomfort. Right now, the Cubs are going with Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown and Colin Rea in the rotation. Top prospect Cade Horton looms in Triple-A, though he’s walked 20.8% of his opponents through his first three starts and could probably use some more development time.
Alternatively, the Cubs could drop Fulmer right back into the bullpen role he’s held in recent years. Chicago relievers have the fourth-worst ERA in the majors (5.34), the third-worst strikeout rate (18.4%) and the eighth-highest walk rate (11.5%). Right-handers Ryan Brasier, Tyson Miller and Eli Morgan are all on the 15-day injured list, which has thinned out the depth in Craig Counsell’s bullpen.
Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central
MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.
Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West
Chicago Cubs
- Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)
Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.
It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.
- Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)
Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.
The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.
- Justin Turner, 3B/DH ($10MM mutual option, $2MM buyout)
Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.
The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.
Cincinnati Reds
- Scott Barlow, RHP ($6.5MM club option, $1MM buyout)
Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.
The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.
- Austin Hays, OF ($12MM mutual option, $1MM buyout)
Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.
- Brent Suter, LHP ($3MM club option, $250K buyout)
Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Rhys Hoskins, 1B ($18MM mutual option, $4MM buyout)
Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.
That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.
Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.
- Freddy Peralta, RHP ($8MM club option)
Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.
The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.
- Jose Quintana, LHP ($15MM mutual option, $2MM buyout deferred)
Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.
- Brandon Woodruff, RHP ($20MM mutual option, $10MM buyout)
Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.
Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- None
St. Louis Cardinals
- None
Cubs Sign Peter Solomon To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have signed right-hander Peter Solomon to a minor league deal, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. The O’Connell Sports Management client will report to Triple-A Iowa and provide the Cubs with some non-roster depth.
Solomon, 28, has a bit of major league experience. He tossed 14 innings with the Astros in 2021 and another 13 1/3 with the Diamondbacks in 2023. He allowed 6.59 earned runs per nine innings in that small sample.
The Cubs are presumably a bit more interested in his larger body of work in the minors, where he has shown some strikeout stuff but also control issues. Back in 2021, he logged 97 2/3 innings with the Astros’ Triple-A club, posting a 4.70 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. But his minor league ERA jumped to 5.58 in 2022 and then 7.64 in 2023. He started last year in Indy Ball but was able to secure a minor league pact with the Rangers in May. He went on to toss 72 Triple-A innings in a swing role for that organization, with a 6.50 ERA, 21.6% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate.
The Cubs have health issues both in the rotation and the bullpen. Justin Steele recently underwent UCL surgery and will miss the rest of the season. Javier Assad has been out all year with an oblique strain. Relievers Ryan Brasier, Eli Morgan and Tyson Miller are on the IL as well. Solomon gives them an extra non-roster depth option. If he gets added at any point, he has one option season remaining and less than a year of service time.
Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images
Cubs Acquire Drew Pomeranz From Mariners
8:14pm: While the team announced that Pomeranz would report to Triple-A Iowa, that’s evidently a temporary assignment. Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the Cubs are likely to call him up on Wednesday.
7:47pm: The Cubs officially announced to media (including Marquee’s Taylor McGregor) that they’ve acquired Pomeranz for cash considerations.
6:10pm: The Mariners are trading reliever Drew Pomeranz to the Cubs, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The veteran southpaw had been pitching in Triple-A with Seattle. According to Rosenthal, Pomeranz’s deal contained an upward mobility clause that required the Mariners to either call him up or trade him if another team was willing to offer him a big league roster spot.
That suggests the Cubs will call Pomeranz up for what’d be his first major league appearance in four years (assuming he makes it into a game). He was very briefly in the big leagues last season, as he spent four days on the Giants’ roster last May. San Francisco skipper Bob Melvin didn’t get him into a game before he was designated for assignment and outrighted off the roster. Pomeranz elected free agency upon clearing waivers and sat out the remainder of the season.
The 36-year-old signed a minor league deal with Seattle in December. He was granted his release at the end of Spring Training but promptly returned on a new non-roster pact. He has allowed six runs, five of them earned, through 9 2/3 innings with their Tacoma affiliate. Pomeranz has given out eight free passes (six walks and two hit batters) but he’s punched out 14 of 43 opponents. He’s getting swinging strikes at a decent 11.8% clip while working with a 92 MPH fastball and a low-80s knuckle-curve.
Chicago was intrigued enough by the stuff to give Pomeranz a look despite the wobbly command. He has some familiarity with skipper Craig Counsell. Pomeranz had a breakout half-season in Milwaukee while Counsell was managing the Brewers in 2019. He recorded 45 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings after a deadline trade with San Francisco. That led the Padres to sign him to a surprising four-year, $34MM free agent deal the following offseason. The investment didn’t work, as injuries and the shortened 2020 schedule limited him to 47 appearances over the life of that contract.
According to the MLB.com transaction log, the Cubs optioned Jordan Wicks to Triple-A Iowa. That’ll apparently be the corresponding active roster move. They’ll need to add Pomeranz to the 40-man roster as well, though they can move Justin Steele to the 60-day injured list to open that spot.
Justin Steele Undergoes UCL Revision Surgery
The Cubs lost ace southpaw Justin Steele for the year last week when it was announced he’d need season-ending elbow surgery, but Steele didn’t actually go under the knife until Friday. Prior to today’s game against the Diamondbacks, manager Craig Counsell updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) on Steele’s status post-surgery and offered some positive news for fans in Chicago. Bastian notes that the Cubs described Steele’s procedure as a “revision repair” of the UCL in his left elbow. That’s a less serious procedure than Tommy John surgery, which entirely replaces the UCL. Counsell suggested that the initial timeline for Steele’s return to action is roughly one year, which would suggest that he can be expected back on the mound fairly early into the 2026 season.
It’s great news for the Cubs and Steele, particularly because Steele already had Tommy John surgery early in his career when he was still a prospect. Second Tommy John surgeries typically come with a rehab on the longer side of the surgery’s typical 12-to-18 month recovery timeline, and occasionally require an even longer layoff. Had Steele required full Tommy John surgery, it wouldn’t have been a shock to see Steele not take a big league mound again until the final weeks of the 2026 season, as was the case for Jacob deGrom when he returned from his second Tommy John surgery last September after nearly 17 months spent rehabbing.
Fortunately, that wasn’t the case, and the Cubs will be able to plan for the 2026 campaign with a reasonable expectation that Steele will be a big part of their rotation mix next year, as was the case for the Braves after Spencer Strider underwent an internal brace procedure early in the 2024 season that came with a similar one-year timetable. Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, and Dylan Cease are among a handful of front-of-the-rotation arms who figure to be highly sought after this winter, but an early 2026 target for Steele could make the Cubs less inclined to get involved in the markets for those pitchers, especially if they decide to commit their free agent dollars to a pursuit of a long-term deal with star outfielder Kyle Tucker.
While the Cubs can expect Steele to pitch for the club again in 2026, the hit to their short-term rotation depth could still lead them to pursue pitching help this summer. The Cubs appear focused on internal solutions for the time being, and Colin Rea has held his own impressively since subbing in for Steele after opening the year in the bullpen, with effective (although brief) starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks during which he’s surrendered just two runs with ten strikeouts against one walk across 8 1/3 innings of work. That sensational production can’t be expected to last forever, but with top pitching prospect Cade Horton striking out 37.5% of his opponents at Triple-A it’s at least possible the Cubs could enter July feeling good about their rotation for the stretch run.
Plenty of arms should be available at the deadline if they do end up needing reinforcements, with the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara standing out as the most frequently discussed name. Aside from Alcantara, players like Tyler Anderson, Seth Lugo, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen could all theoretically be available on the trade market depending on the where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings this summer. Aside from Alcantara, each of those players can become free agents following the 2025 season. That could be preferable for the Cubs in the event they do pursue pitching help given that Steele is expected to pitch most of the 2026 season and each of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon are already under contract for next year, while the club holds an option on Rea.
Cubs Re-Sign Caleb Kilian To Minor League Deal
The Cubs re-signed righty Caleb Kilian to a minor league contract, reports Tommy Birch of The Des Moines Register. He’ll return to Triple-A Iowa after being released over the weekend.
Chicago designated Kilian for assignment last Thursday when they acquired Tom Cosgrove in a trade with San Diego. Kilian was on the minor league injured list at the time. Teams cannot place injured players on outright waivers. The Cubs needed to trade Kilian or release him after the DFA. The vast majority of such players will be released. Once they clear waivers, they’re free to talk to all 30 clubs, though it’s common for their former team to try to get them back on a minor league deal.
That’s what happened in this case, so Kilian sticks with the Cubs after a few days on the open market. He’s been in the organization since the 2021 deadline. The Cubs acquired Kilian and outfielder Alexander Canario from the Giants in the Kris Bryant deal. Both players were reasonably well-regarded prospects at the time, though neither has panned out thus far. Canario’s big power has been undercut by huge strikeout tallies. The Cubs moved on from him over the offseason.
Kilian has made eight major league appearances over three seasons. The Texas Tech product has allowed a 9.22 earned run average in 27 1/3 big league innings. He has walked 20 batters with 21 strikeouts. Over parts of four seasons in Triple-A, he carries a 4.37 ERA in 274 frames. His 21.8% strikeout rate is a little worse than average, as is his 9.2% walk percentage. Kilian had only taken the ball once for Iowa this year. He gave up six runs in 2 1/3 innings before leaving with the undisclosed injury that sent him to the IL. He’ll work as non-roster rotation or long relief depth once he’s healthy enough to return to the mound.
Latest On Cubs’ Rotation Plans
The Cubs’ rotation took a huge hit recently with Justin Steele requiring season-ending elbow surgery. However, they don’t plan to rush out and scramble for external options. Per a report from Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the club is focused on internal solutions for now.
That’s a fairly understandable position to take at this part of the calendar. There are some unsigned free agents, with Spencer Turnbull arguably the most notable one, but that wouldn’t provide any help in the short term. Such a player would effectively require a delayed spring training ramp up, meaning they wouldn’t be an option for a few weeks even if they were signed today.
The trade market could provide some more hot-and-ready options but there are problems there as well. This early in the season, most clubs are still hoping to contend. The clubs that have no hope of contending this year don’t have a ton of exciting pitchers available.
It could be argued that Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins is the perfect storm of an exciting player on a rebuilding club that should be willing to deal him at any time. The Marlins did trade Luis Arráez in early May of last year, so it’s a possibility with some precedent. However, Will Sammon of The Athletic reported this week that the Fish haven’t yet decided if they will trade Alcantara. There is no real rush for them to decide, as the trade deadline is still months away and they are out to a respectable 8-8 start. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports similarly, noting that the Marlins feel they will get better offers in July.
Some less-established pitchers might be available. For instance, the Brewers just acquired Quinn Priester from the Red Sox to bolster their own injury-battered rotation. Priester is a former first-round pick and notable prospect but had a 6.23 earned run average in 99 2/3 career innings when Milwaukee grabbed him. The Brewers gave up the 33rd overall pick in this summer’s draft, a mid-tier prospect (Yophery Rodriguez) and a player to be named later to get him.
The Cubs already have some guys who are more or less in that Priester bucket. Jordan Wicks is a former first-round pick with a 5.02 ERA in 80 2/3 innings. Cade Horton, another first-rounder, hasn’t made his big league debut yet but is in the Triple-A rotation.
They also have a couple of other options. Javier Assad started the season on the injured list due to an oblique strain but has begun a rehab assignment and should be able to rejoin the club soon. As noted by Mooney, the club has a number of off-days coming up on the schedule. That could allow them to ride with a four-man rotation of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Ben Brown for a while, with swingman Colin Rea contributing from time to time via spot starts or bulk outings until Assad is back in the mix.
That’s a decent amount of depth for the time being and the club is out to a strong 12-8 start, so they probably don’t feel the need to make a panic move. Once the deadline draws nearer, it seems fair to expect their willingness to trade for external options will increase. It’s possible that guys like Wicks or Horton could take over roles in the coming months but other injuries are also a distinct possibility.
Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images
Cubs Option Matt Shaw
The Cubs have optioned third baseman Matt Shaw to Triple-A Iowa, reports Keith Law of The Athletic. That’s part of a larger slate of moves, relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. On the pitching side, the club recalled left-hander Luke Little and right-hander Daniel Palencia. To make room for those two, righty Nate Pearson has been optioned to Iowa as well, while righty Eli Morgan has been placed on the 15-day IL due to an elbow impingement.
Shaw, 23, came into the season as one of the top prospects in the league. The club clearly believed he was worthy of a shot at the majors, as they traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker deal in the offseason. That didn’t guarantee Shaw a spot on the Opening Day roster but it opened a door for him, which he walked through. He cracked the club’s roster ahead of the Tokyo Series and has been serving as their regular third baseman up until this point.
The results have been mixed. Across his 68 plate appearances thus far, he has drawn a walk in 14.7% of them, but he’s also been struck out at a 26.5% clip. He has a tepid .172/.294/.241 batting line, though with a .231 batting average on balls in play. That number is on the unlucky side but Shaw hasn’t been doing himself many favors in terms of putting good wood on the ball. His 82.7 mile per hour average exit velocity in the second percentile of qualified MLB hitters, per Statcast. His hard-hit rate is in the fifth percentile, his bat speed in the tenth and his barrel rate 15th. His defense has also been a bit of a question mark. In 141 innings at third base thus far, he already has four errors.
All of that is surely less than the Cubs were hoping for, as he destroyed minor league pitching. After getting selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Shaw got into 159 minor league games between that draft selection and the end of the 2024 season. He had solid walk and strikeout rates of 10.2% and 17.3% respectively while slashing .303/.384/.522 for a 157 wRC+. 35 of those games were at the Triple-A level last year and he hit .298/.395/.534 in those, building the case that he was ready for a major league debut.
Shaw is yet another example of a top prospect who didn’t immediately click at the major league level. While some may jump to declare Shaw a “bust”, this sort of thing is actually quite common. A classic example is Mike Trout, who hit .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances back in 2011. It can’t be assumed that a prospect will immediately succeed when reaching the majors for the first time, nor does it mean that they won’t ever find success down the line.
Sending Shaw down is defensible in a vacuum, given his struggles. But outside the vacuum, it’s unclear who the Cubs can turn to as a better option for the hot corner. Bruján has a .189/.261/.270 batting line in his career. Justin Turner has lots of third base experience but is now 40 years old. He’s been more of a first base/designated hitter type in recent years, with just 90 innings at the hot corner since the end of the 2022 season. He’s also having his own struggles at the plate this year, with a .172/.286/.172 line thus far. Jon Berti is a 35-year-old veteran utility guy. Gage Workman is a Rule 5 guy who has received just ten plate appearances thus far this year and has been punched out in five of them.
It’s possible this is just a short-term situation and Shaw will be back up with the big league club soon. How long it takes for his return will be significant for him and the club. By cracking the Opening Day roster, he was on pace to get a full year of service time in 2025. That would have meant qualifying for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030. A quick return to the majors could still make those targets viable. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs just 172 days in the big leagues or on the injured list to get credited with a full year. It’s also possible for Shaw to qualify for arbitration after 2027 even with less than three years of service time, as he could reach Super Two status.
If Shaw doesn’t return fairly quickly, those timelines will be pushed one year into the future. It will also take off the possibility of the Cubs earning an extra draft pick via the prospect promotion incentive. Under the PPI rules, teams can earn an extra pick by carrying a top prospect on the roster long enough to earn a full service year. The Cubs put that on the table initially by giving Shaw an Opening Day job but it will no longer apply if he’s down for a few weeks.
Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images