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The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

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With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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Jed Hoyer Discusses Trade Deadline, Cubs’ Struggles

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The Cubs’ 4-2 loss to the Brewers Friday dropped Chicago to a 38-45 record, and a .458 winning percentage that tops only the Marlins and Rockies among all National League teams.  With a 17-31 mark in their last 48 games, the Cubs simply haven’t been playing good baseball for the better part of two months, leading to a lot of speculation about the team’s plans heading into the July 30 trade deadline.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer addressed this topic and many others when speaking with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) prior to yesterday’s game, saying “I don’t think it’s time yet for that full conversation” given that the deadline is still a month out.  However, Hoyer admitted that “we’ve backed ourselves into a bit of a corner” and things needs to turn around quickly.

“We have to play well this month,” Hoyer said.  “I think you have to be a realist when you get to that point….You have to make the best decisions for the organization based on the hand you’re dealt that year.  We’ll see what that is.”

It was just last season that the Cubs were 45-51 on July 20 before rattling off an eight-game winning streak that convinced Hoyer to make moves to bolster the roster at the deadline, rather than sell.  Jeimer Candelario was acquired in a trade with the Nationals and helped Chicago post a scoring 18-9 record in August 2023, though a late-season fade left the team just short of a playoff berth.

If the Cubs get on track with another big win streak, or if they keep losing at this pace, Hoyer’s deadline decision will be relatively easy.  Given the team’s win-now mode and the investments made in the roster, it might also be fair to say that the Cubs will be more prone to adding at the deadline if they’re even near the .500 mark but still within striking distance in the wild card race.  (Even now, Chicago is just five games out of the last NL wild card berth.)

Turning to how the Wrigleyville squad might approach selling, their same roster-building endeavors also lead to a lack of obvious trade candidates.  As Rogers notes, most of the Cubs’ roster is under longer-term control, either via contracts or players under arbitration control.  While Chicago hasn’t played well, the idea of the Cubs blowing things up and having a fire sale of their core simply isn’t realistic, so any deadline selling would surely be made with an eye towards contending in 2025.

Hector Neris and Kyle Hendricks are free agents this winter and Neris’ track record would lead to some interest from bullpen-needy teams, even though he and Hendricks have both struggled for much of the season.  Cody Bellinger can become a free agent if he opts out of the last two years and $52.5MM of his current contract, though his decent but unspectacular play creates some doubt as to whether or not an opt-out would lead to Bellinger finally landing a big-ticket multi-year contract.  This same gray area in regards to Bellinger’s status as a rental or a possible longer-term piece would impact his possible status as a trade candidate come the deadline.

The Cubs opted to keep Bellinger at last year’s trade deadline, though it could be a different story this year barring another July surge.  “Teams like the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have recently had a noticeable scouting presence around the” Cubs, according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon, Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney, and Ken Rosenthal, and Bellinger has long been linked to the Yankees on the rumor mill.  The 37-45 Rangers are in even worse shape than the Cubs, but the defending World Series champs are another team who could pivot to selling if they can start winning in July.

Until the deadline nears, all Hoyer and his front office can do is hope their struggling lineup and bullpen in particular perform better.  Hoyer’s disappointment was clear, as he said “when you look at where we’ve performed this year with a team that’s stronger [on paper], it’s lesser.  Is that frustrating to me?  Absolutely.  If it’s frustrating to me, I have to imagine it’s frustrating to the fans.”

Cubs Select Jorge López

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The Cubs made some roster moves today, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay them on X, swapping in two right-handed relievers for two others. They have recalled Ethan Roberts and selected Jorge López to the roster. In corresponding moves, Keegan Thompson has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right rib fracture while Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment.

López, 31, had a high-profile departure from the Mets earlier this year, which was thoroughly documented at the time. He then landed with the Cubs on a minor league deal a couple of weeks ago. He reported to the club’s Complex League affiliate and allowed three runs in one inning there, but then moved to Triple-A Iowa and had better results there with three scoreless appearances over the past week.

The righty was an elite reliever for a time in 2022 but has been less impressive over the past two years or so. In 44 appearances with the Orioles in 2022, he had a 1.68 earned run average, 27.6% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 60% ground ball rate. But he was traded to the Twins at that year’s deadline and has since bounced to the Marlins, back to the O’s, the Mets and now the Cubs. Since that trade almost two years ago, he has a 5.08 ERA, 18% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 48% ground ball rate.

There’s little risk for the Cubs in giving him a shot, as the Mets are on the hook for the bulk of his $2MM salary. The Cubs will only have to pay the prorated version of the $740K minimum for whatever time López spends on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Mets pay. But it’s the latest in a series of moves that has seen the Cubs rotate various castoffs from other clubs through their bullpen as they struggle to develop or sign quality relievers, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams looked at earlier today for Front Office subscribers. The club’s relievers have a collective 4.45 ERA on the year, better than just seven other clubs, part of the reason why they are 38-44 and at the back of the pack in the Wild Card race.

Another pitcher in this carousel is Nittoli. He was designated for assignment by the Athletics a week ago and elected free agency after clearing waivers. He landed a big league deal with the Cubs yesterday but has now been bounced off without making an appearance for them. He’ll now be in DFA limbo yet again and could perhaps end up back in free agency, since that’s how things played out just a few days ago.

He has pitched in the four most recent MLB seasons but has just 14 2/3 innings pitched in the big leagues with a 3.07 ERA in that time. In 159 Triple-A innings since the start of 2021, he has a 4.19 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.

As for Thompson, it’s unclear how serious his injury is or how much time he’s expected to miss. He has a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings for the Cubs this year, striking out 33.8% of batters faced but also giving out walks at a 13% clip.

The Cubs Keep Trying The Same Thing, And It’s Not Working

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While the Cubs' 2024 season got out to a strong start that saw them sitting a season-high seven games above .500 on May 12, things have spiraled quickly. Since opening the year 24-17, Chicago has played at an abysmal 14-27 clip. That's six and a half weeks of .341 ball that has dropped them to 38-44 -- last place in the National League Central. They're 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead. A four-game deficit in the NL Wild Card race normally wouldn't seem insurmountable, but it's a bit more daunting when a whopping seven teams stand between them and the final Wild Card spot.

There's no shortage of flaws with the current iteration of the Cubs. They're tied for 21st in the majors in home runs, tied for 18th in runs scored and tied for 24th in both batting average and slugging percentage. They've received no production at all from their catchers. On the pitching side, the rotation has had its share of health-related struggles. Justin Steele missed all of April and another start in May. Javier Assad just joined fellow young starters Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks on the injured list. The Cubs' defense has been middle-of-the-pack, at best.

There's one glaring struggle that's plagued them again and again in recent years, however, and one of the driving reasons behind it is easy to see.

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Cubs Place Javier Assad On Injured List

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The Cubs made some roster moves today, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay them on X. As was previously reported, the Cubs signed right-hander Vinny Nittoli. To open a spot for him on the active roster, fellow righty Javier Assad has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm extensor strain. Righty Yency Almonte was transferred to the 60-day IL to give Nittoli a 40-man spot. Assad’s move is retroactive to June 24, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times on X.

At this point, it’s unclear how severe Assad’s injury is or how long the club expects him to be out of action, but it’ll be a blow for them regardless. Assad has made 16 starts for the club so far this year, allowing 3.04 earned runs per nine innings. There’s probably a bit of good luck in that number, as Assad’s 83.3% strand rate and .276 batting average on balls in play are both on the fortunate side. His 4.16 FIP and 4.22 SIERA suggest he would have trouble maintaining that kind of run prevention going forward.

Regardless, it’s still less than ideal for the Cubs to lose yet another arm to the injured list. They recently had Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks land on the IL, which forced Kyle Hendricks back into a rotation role, after he struggled earlier in the year and got kicked to the bullpen. The bullpen has also been undercut by injuries, with Almonte, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. all on the shelf.

Around all of those injuries, the club has been falling in the standings. They were 18-12 at the end of April but have gone 19-32 since, putting them at 37-44 at the moment. That’s still just five games back of a playoff spot in the weak National League Wild Card standings, but they’re currently the worst team in the NL apart from the Marlins and Rockies. That gives them a slim margin for error with the deadline just over a month away and losing a solid rotation member like Assad for even just a few weeks doesn’t help.

Without Assad, the rotation consists of Hendricks, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga. They will need to come up with a fifth starter soon and also play seven games in six days just before the All-Star break, thanks to a July 13 double-header in St. Louis. Hayden Wesneski made a spot start yesterday, tossing four innings, and could perhaps get the ball again in the coming days. Drew Smyly has plenty of starting experience but has been in a relief role this year. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton is shut down with a subscapularis strain and unavailable at the moment. Thomas Pannone, Dan Straily and Kyle McGowin are in the system on minor league deals and stretched out in the minors, though none of that trio currently has a roster spot.

As for Almonte, he’s been on the injured list since May 8 due to a shoulder strain. This transfer means he can’t be reinstated until 60 days from that date, which would be July 7. He wasn’t going to be ready before then anyhow. A few days ago, manager Craig Counsell told reporters that Almonte would be getting a second opinion after hitting a wall in his recovery attempts. “We’re just not progressing,” Counsell said, per Montemurro on X. “We have to find out whether medically there’s something we have to address or we have to take a different path on the rehab.”

Cubs, Vinny Nittoli Agree To Major League Deal

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The Cubs and right-handed reliever Vinny Nittoli are in agreement on a major league contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The Gaeta Sports Management client was recently designated for assignment by the A’s and elected free agency over an outright assignment to Triple-A. Chicago will need to open a spot on its 40-man roster once the addition of Nittoli is official.

Nittoli, 33, spent time with the Cubs’ Triple-A club in Iowa last year but never received a call to the big leagues despite pitching well in Des Moines. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll jump right onto the big league roster this time around, however, as the Cubs hope to catch lightning in a bottle on another DFA reclamation in their bullpen after hitting paydirt on righty Tyson Miller.

A 25th-round pick by the Mariners back in 2014, Nittoli is the embodiment of a journeyman reliever who has persevered through the prototypical minor league grind. He made his MLB debut at age 29 in 2020, more than six years after being drafted as a senior sign out of Xavier, and has spent time in the minors or big leagues with one-third of the teams in Major League Baseball. Even after exhausting all three of his minor league options and logging big league time in each of the past four seasons, Nittoli has just 14 2/3 MLB innings and 52 days of MLB service to his name.

It’s a small sample, but Nittoli has pitched well in that time. He’s held opponents to five runs on 13 hits, five walks and a pair of hit batsmen with 10 strikeouts along the way — good for a 3.07 earned run average. That run-prevention mark in a small sample greatly outpaces the career 4.73 ERA Nittoli has put together in five Triple-A seasons (177 innings). That said, Nittoli’s Triple-A strikeout rate of 30.5% is far better than what he’s managed in the big leagues, while his 8.5% walk rate in Triple-A is right in line with his 8.2% mark in the majors.

The Cubs have now signed Nittoli twice — this time putting him directly on the MLB roster — so they’re clearly intrigued by the well-traveled righty. Nittoli changed up his pitch mix last year, scrapping a 92-93 mph four-seamer for a cutter that sits around 90 mph as his primary offering. With Oakland, he paired that pitch with a slider that averaged 83.2 mph and threw a handful of sinkers and changeups as well.

After an 18-12 start to the season, the Cubs have been reeling for the better part of two months. They’ve followed a 10-18 showing in May with a 9-14 showing in June and now sit seven games below .500 — last in the National League Central. They’re what should be a manageable five games back in the NL Wild Card chase, but given the leaguewide mediocrity in the Senior Circuit, that actually puts them third from last in the chase. They’d need to vault a whopping seven teams to claim the third Wild Card spot, as of this writing.

Chicago’s bullpen has been a major culprit in their struggles. Cubs relievers have a collective 4.52 ERA that sits 24th in the majors. Their 24.4% strikeout rate is a strong mark, landing eighth in MLB, but only the Rangers bullpen (11.9%) has issued walks at a higher rate than the Cubs’ 11.3% — and only four teams (Blue Jays, Rays, Angels, White Sox) have surrendered homers more frequently.

Certainly, making a low-risk bet on a 33-year-old with a strong track record of missing bats in the upper minors isn’t going to magically cure all those deficiencies, but it’s sensible to see the Cubs taking some action at a time when the trade market is still in its infancy. The aforementioned parity in the NL — and things are bunched only a bit less tightly in the AL — has left very few clear-cut sellers with just over a month until the July 30 deadline. Currently, there are nine teams within five games of a Wild Card spot between the two leagues. With few clubs wanting to part with major league help given their proximity to a potential postseason spot, there aren’t many options for teams like the Cubs as they look for ways to upgrade the roster.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • “What would it take for the Rockies to consider trading some young assets like Ryan McMahon or Brendan Rodgers?” (23:55)
  • “The Astros are clearly out of it, so why isn’t Ryan Pressly a top target of teams with bad bullpens?” (30:35)
  • “Would the Marlins or Nationals trade with the Mets, Phillies or Braves, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Lane Thomas being good fits?” (39:25)
  • “Will T.J. McFarland of the Athletics be traded to the Cubs or another contender?” (47:45)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cubs Release Yan Gomes

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The Cubs have released veteran catcher Yan Gomes, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That was the expected outcome after he was designated for assignment last week. He’s now a free agent and can sign with any club.

Gomes is a veteran with over a thousand games in the majors and a 37th birthday coming up next month. He has spent most of that as a solid defender behind the plate with some inconsistent but potent offense. He doesn’t draw a lot of walks and can be strikeout prone, but he’s generally been a reliable source of double-digit home runs whenever he gets regular playing time.

Going into the 2022 season, the Cubs signed him to a two-year deal with a $13MM guarantee and a $6MM club option for 2024. His first season with the Cubs was a bit of a disappointment but he hit 10 home runs last year and slashed .267/.315/.408 for a wRC+ of 95. That means he was 5% below league average overall but that’s a strong result for a catcher.

The Cubs picked up the option for 2024 but the results from Gomes took a nosedive. In 96 plate appearances with the Cubs this year, he slashed .154/.179/.242. He walked just 2.1% of the time while getting punched out at a massive 37.5% clip and the defensive metrics soured on him as well.

The club was also seeing significant struggles from youngster Miguel Amaya, turning the catching position into a black hole on the roster. Amaya is just 25 years old and has five years of club control beyond this one, so the Cubs weren’t likely to give up on him based on a few rough months, but he has exhausted his option years and can’t be sent down to the minors. That left Gomes squeezed off the roster with a few months left on his contract.

No other club was going to acquire Gomes based on how rough he’s been this year, as doing so would involve absorbing what’s left of his salary, just over $3MM. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment, so the Cubs have released him, which leaves them on the hook for the remainder of that money.

Any of the other clubs can now sign him while only paying him the prorated version of the major league minimum salary, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay. Despite his rough season, perhaps that will spur some team to take a low-cost chance on him based on his track record. He has 137 career home runs and a .246/.295/.412 slash line overall, with that translating to an 89 wRC+.

Injury Notes: Luplow, Brown, Darvish

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Outfielder Jordan Luplow, who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in March, is done for the year with a right knee ACL tear. The account @Kram207 was among those to relay the info on X.

Luplow has mostly been a small-side platoon guy in his career, as the right-handed hitter has a line of .227/.338/.495 against lefties over several seasons. This year, he had stepped to the plate 254 times at the Triple-A level with a line of .255/.343/.450. His splits were closer to even with the IronPigs, though in a small sample of 184 plate appearances against righties and 70 against lefties.

Perhaps there would have been a path to playing time in the Philadelphia outfield. Johan Rojas struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors. Brandon Marsh and David Dahl are lefties with notable platoon splits. The right-handed counterparts in their platoons are Whit Merrifield and Cristian Pache, who are both struggling.

With this season-ending injury for Luplow, that won’t be an option for the Phils to even consider anymore. Perhaps Edmundo Sosa will be a factor on the grass, since he has a bit of experience out there and played well while Trea Turner was on the IL. The Phils don’t have a lot of holes heading into the July 30 trade deadline but adding an intriguing righty bat to the bench could be one target, especially with Luplow no longer there as a depth option.

Some other notable injury updates from around baseball…

  • The Cubs placed right-hander Ben Brown on the injured list a couple of weeks ago with a neck strain, though subsequent reporting provided the more ominous-sounding diagnosis of a stress reaction in his neck. The timeline was and is murky, but Brown was able to throw from 90 feet recently, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Brown says that he was told at the time of his diagnosis that he’s already through the worst of his ailment. Montemurro describes the prognosis as a “two- to three-month burnout period,” with the first month being the worst. Brown and Jordan Wicks hit the IL within a week of each other, thinning the Cubs rotation and forcing Kyle Hendricks back into a starting role. The club is 37-41 but that still has them two games out of a playoff spot in the weak NL race. The club will try to ramp Brown up from here as long as there are no symptoms and hopefully get him back into the mix as his body allows. He has a 3.58 ERA on the year through 55 1/3 innings.
  • The Padres are another club in that NL race with some rotation injuries but Yu Darvish will be back tomorrow, with AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relaying the word from manager Mike Shildt on X. Darvish had made 11 starts with a 3.20 ERA before landing on the IL with a left groin strain. He and Joe Musgrove landed on the shelf at the same time, forcing the club to use less experienced hurlers like Randy Vásquez and Adam Mazur. With Mazur posting an ERA of 7.10 in his first four starts and getting optioned recently, the return of Darvish should give the San Diego rotation a boost. The Friars are 41-41 and currently holding the final Wild Card spot in the National League, but there are seven clubs within three games of them.

Cubs Place Mark Leiter Jr. On 15-Day Injured List

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The Cubs announced that right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm strain.  Left-hander Luke Little has been called up from Triple-A Iowa to take Leiter’s spot on the 26-man roster.

After posting a sterling 0.90 ERA over his first 20 innings of the season, Leiter’s performance has dipped sharply, with a ghastly 15.58 ERA over 8 2/3 innings in his last 12 appearances.  Leiter’s last four outings specifically saw him touched up for eight earned runs over 3 1/3 innings of work, so it seems possible that these games might’ve been impacted by the forearm strain if Leiter had been trying to pitch through some discomfort.

All in all, Leiter has a 5.34 ERA over 28 2/3 innings this season, yet with a much more respectable set of secondary metrics.  Leiter’s SIERA is only 2.96, as a .338 BABIP and a 55% strand rate have been working against him.  On the plus side, Leiter has a strong 48.7% grounder rate, quality hard-contract numbers, and a 30.2% strikeout rate that sits in the 91st percentile of all pitchers.

Leiter’s walk rate is below average, but that was also true during the 2022-23 seasons, when he emerged as a very effective weapon out of Chicago’s bullpen.  Leiter posted a 5.53 ERA in 114 innings with the Phillies and Blue Jays in 2017-18, but then didn’t pitch another big league inning for three full seasons, due to a Tommy John surgery, the pandemic-shortened nature of the 2020 season, and a stint in the Tigers’ farm system in 2021 that didn’t result in a call-up to the Show.

The Cubs signed Leiter to a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season, and then another minors contract in the 2022-23 offseason.  The moves have become nice hidden-gem discoveries for the team, as Leiter had a 3.75 ERA and 27.2% strikeout rate over 132 innings in 2022-23, albeit with an 8.9% walk rate.  Working first as a swingman, Leiter became a key set-up man behind closer Adbert Alzolay last season.

Unfortunately, Leiter now joins Alzolay and Julian Merryweather on the injured list, as the Cubs are without their three top bullpen arms.  Merrywether is expected to return from a stress fracture in his ribs by around the All-Star break, while Alzolay’s return from a right flexor strain is still up the air.  Details on Leiter’s forearm strain haven’t yet been revealed, but naturally any kind of a forearm issue is a big concern, particularly for a pitcher who already has one Tommy John procedure on his record.

These injuries and a lack of performance overall has made the Cubs’ bullpen into a weak link on the roster, though not much has gone right for the team over what has been a disastrous six weeks of baseball.  Beginning the season strong with a 24-17 record, Chicago has stumbled to a 13-23 mark over its last 39 games.  The NL’s parity has meant that the Cubs are still just two games out of a wild card slot despite a 37-40 record, yet Chicago will need to regain momentum quickly before the team is perhaps forced into some hard decisions at the trade deadline.

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