Cubs Promote Matt Shaw
The Cubs announced their roster for Tuesday night’s season opener against the Dodgers at the Tokyo Dome (relayed by Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network). As expected, Chicago officially promoted top third base prospect Matt Shaw. They designated reliever Keegan Thompson for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot. That move was foreshadowed when they left the out-of-options righty off their travel roster last week. Chicago also placed righty Javier Assad on the 15-day injured list with a left oblique strain.
Shaw’s promotion, while telegraphed once the Cubs announced he’d travel with the team to Tokyo, is the most significant of these transactions. The 23-year-old infielder figures to start at third base against Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto in what’ll be his major league debut. It was a quick rise through the minors for the Maryland product. The Cubs drafted him 13th overall in 2023. Shaw hit .357 in 38 games in the low minors during his draft year. He continued to rake upon making the move to Double-A to start the ’24 campaign.
The righty-hitting infielder played in 86 games at the Double-A level. He hit .279/.373/.468 to earn a promotion to Triple-A Iowa in August. He performed even better at the top minor league level, closing the year with a .298/.395/.534 slash with seven homers across 35 contests. The Cubs cleared a path for him to take over the hot corner when they dealt Isaac Paredes to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker blockbuster.
Chicago made a late-offseason push for Alex Bregman as a short-term deal became a legitimate possibility. Once Bregman agreed to terms with the Red Sox on a three-year contract, the hot corner became Shaw’s job to lose. While six exhibition games weren’t likely to move the needle one way or the other, he didn’t hurt his case by collecting five hits and three walks with only one strikeout in 19 Spring Training plate appearances.
Shaw is the consensus choice as the top prospect in a strong Cubs system. He ranks among the top 50 prospects in the sport at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen), MLB Pipeline, ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), and The Athletic (Keith Law). The various scouting reports project Shaw as a potential 25-homer bat with the ability to hit for a high average, though McDaniel and Longenhagen each express minor concern with his propensity for chasing sliders on the outer half. Shaw is regarded as a plus runner who should be capable of sticking on the infield.
A middle infielder by trade, Shaw will play mostly third base with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner having the middle infield secured. Hoerner did not travel to Tokyo as he finishes his rehab from October flexor tendon surgery. The Cubs have maintained hope that Hoerner will be ready for next Thursday’s domestic Opening Day. Jon Berti seems the likeliest option to start these two games in his place.
Shaw easily qualifies for the prospect criterion (on at least two of the preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and ESPN) of the CBA’s Prospect Promotion Incentive. Assuming he sticks on the Cubs’ roster for a full service year, the team would receive an extra draft choice after the first round if Shaw either wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP balloting within his first three seasons. Shaw will be under club control through 2030 and will qualify for arbitration during the 2027-28 offseason if he holds his active roster spot. If he struggles and the Cubs option him back to the minors, that could obviously change his free agent trajectory.
While Shaw is the higher-profile rookie, he’s not the only Cub infielder in line to make his MLB debut. Rule 5 pick Gage Workman also made the Opening Day roster. Chicago grabbed the left-handed hitter out of the Detroit system in December. A fourth-round pick out of Arizona State in 2020, Workman is coming off .280/.366/.476 slash with 18 homers and 30 stolen bases in Double-A. He has never played at the top minor league level.
Workman couldn’t have done much more in camp to force the Cubs to hang onto him. He drilled three homers, stole as many bases, and hit .424 in 15 Spring Training games. Workman has an intriguing combination of power and athleticism. He’s a capable defender on the left side of the infield. The question is whether he’ll make enough contact to stick on the MLB roster. Workman fanned at a 27.5% clip last season and has a career 32.9% strikeout rate.
Teams must keep Rule 5 draftees on the MLB roster or injured list for the entire season to retain their long-term contractual rights. They’d otherwise need to be placed on waivers and, if unclaimed, be offered back to their original organization. The Cubs have Berti, Workman, Justin Turner and the out-of-options Vidal Bruján working off the bench. They probably won’t be able to roster all four players once Hoerner is healthy, but they’re each on the team for the two-game set in Tokyo.
Image courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images.
Padres Have Received Interest From Around Nine Teams On Dylan Cease
Around nine teams have been in contact with the Padres to express interest in Dylan Cease, writes Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman lists the Cubs, Mets and all five AL East teams among that group. The remaining two clubs are unknown, though The Athletic reported in January that the Twins had shown interest.
A pre-Opening Day trade still seems highly unlikely. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote earlier this week that the Padres were only willing to entertain trading their top starter if they received a significant offensive upgrade in the return package. They’d almost certainly want a controllable starting pitcher who could immediately replace Cease in the rotation as well. That’s a difficult asking price for another team to meet, especially without impactful hitters remaining in free agency to backfill the lineup.
Cease was traded midway through last year’s Spring Training. That was a different situation, as the White Sox were in full rebuild mode when they dealt him to the Padres. San Diego expects to compete for a playoff spot despite budget limitations that kept them from doing much of significance until they added Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year deal. Cease worked 189 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball during his first season in San Diego. He struck out 29.4% of opponents and fanned 224 hitters overall — his fourth consecutive season above the 200 mark.
The Padres and Cease agreed to a $13.75MM salary for his final arbitration season. He’d be a lock for a qualifying offer when he hits free agency next winter unless the Friars deal him midseason, which would make him ineligible to receive the QO. Cease will be heading into his age-30 season and could command a contract above $200MM. While the Padres don’t seem optimistic about their chances of re-signing him, they’d obviously take a major downgrade to this year’s rotation if they trade him.
Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the Orioles and Cubs were monitoring the rotation market. Baltimore will begin the season without Grayson Rodriguez. Chicago’s rotation hasn’t taken any huge injury hits, though they’ll be without Javier Assad for a few weeks. They’re reportedly in talks with free agent Lance Lynn, who’d be a much less costly but far lower-upside addition at the back of the rotation.
The Mets (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea) and Yankees (Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil) have each lost multiple starters to injuries this spring. It has been particularly rough in the Bronx. Gil will likely miss the first half of the season with a lat strain. Cole will be out into the middle of 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Nevertheless, respective baseball operations leaders David Stearns and Brian Cashman have indicated the New York teams are content with their internal options to weather those losses.
Boston already parted with two top prospects to add an impact starter in the Garrett Crochet deal. Toronto and Tampa Bay have rotations that arguably each run six deep. The Jays are likely to use Yariel Rodríguez in long relief. The Rays could consider trading one of their starters to settle on a five-man group. That could theoretically position Toronto or Tampa Bay to include a controllable starter in a Cease package, though there’s nothing to suggest the Padres are in anything more than due diligence mode with Opening Day two weeks off.
Cubs Have Reportedly Had Talks With Lance Lynn
The Cubs and veteran righty Lance Lynn are in talks on a potential one-year deal, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who adds that the Cubs are eyeing some further rotation depth. That said, Lynn could potentially emerge as a bullpen piece. The right-hander told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal earlier in the offseason that his agent had gotten calls from teams curious about using Lynn out of the bullpen, and he sounded open to the idea at the time.
Lynn, 37, spent the 2024 season with his original club, the division-rival Cardinals. He made 23 mostly solid starts, logging a 3.84 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 117 1/3 innings. The righty averaged only five innings per appearance and had a pair of 15-day IL stints due to discomfort and inflammation in his right knee.
Even with the limited workload, it was a bounceback effort for the 13-year veteran, who’d been torched for a 5.73 earned run average in 183 innings between the White Sox and Dodgers the year prior. Lynn was baseball’s most homer-prone starter that year, serving up an average of 2.16 long balls per nine frames. He trimmed that to a far more manageable 1.23 in his return effort with the Cardinals.
If the two parties to come to terms, Lynn would be a fairly surprising addition. Chicago already has Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd locked into rotation spots. Presumptive fifth starter Javier Assad will open on the injured list due to an oblique strain but isn’t expected to be sidelined long-term. In the meantime, swingman Colin Rea could step into the rotation after signing a one-year, $5MM contract earlier in the winter.
The Cubs also have several young arms who are on the cusp of MLB readiness. Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks and Caleb Kilian are all already on the 40-man roster, as is journeyman Cody Poteet. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell aren’t yet on the 40-man but have both reached Triple-A. Horton, in particular, is generally ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects.
Any of those arms might need to be relied upon in the early stages of the season anyhow, as at this point it’s hard to imagine Lynn would be ready to jump into a big league rotation or bullpen with domestic Opening Day just two weeks out. The Cubs’ season, of course, starts next week during their Tokyo Series showdown against the Dodgers.
Chicago’s payroll currently sits at an estimated $194.6MM, per RosterResource, while their estimated CBT number checks in at $214.5MM. That places them $26.5MM away from the luxury tax threshold. Signing Lynn on what would surely be an affordable one-year deal would still leave the Cubs with more than $20MM in space between their current levels and that CBT barrier, providing ample room for in-season dealings as the front office sees fit.
MLBTR Podcast: Lawrence Butler’s Extension, Gerrit Cole’s TJ, And Rays’ Ownership Pressured To Sell
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Athletics signing Lawrence Butler to an extension (1:55)
- The Yankees losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery (10:00)
- The Mets losing Francisco Alvarez to hamate surgery (19:20)
- The Rays’ stadium and ownership drama (24:00)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Will the Cubs win the NL Central and how would you rank the AL Central clubs? (34:25)
- Will the spring injuries lead to some deals and keep the hot stove burning into April? (41:35)
- Should fans of the Dodgers be worried by how many old/injury-prone players are on the roster? (47:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Jose Quintana, Luis Gil’s Injury, The Nats’ TV Situation, Salary Floor Talk, And More! – listen here
- Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More! – listen here
- Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr. – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Poll: Should The Cubs Extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?
The Cubs’ teardown of their last core that saw them part ways with Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel over the course of nine months. That slate of moves, to this point, has offered little in terms of major league production. There are some promising prospects from trades in that teardown, such as Owen Caissie (Darvish) and Kevin Alcantara (Rizzo) knocking on the door of the big leagues, but some of the pieces acquired in the trades of Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, and Kimbrel have already departed the organization (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Alexander Canario).
So far, the primary exception is the trade that sent Baez (and right-hander Trevor Williams) to the Mets for center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former first-round pick’s premium defense and speed gave him a high floor, and he continued to elevate his stock en route to billing as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.
In a league that’s seen an increasing number of young talents locked up long-term before reaching arbitration, Crow-Armstrong’s pedigree has long led Cubs fans to wonder if Chicago could follow in the footsteps of Arizona, Atlanta, and their brethren on the south side and lock up their young center fielder early in his career. It seems as though both the club’s front office and Crow-Armstrong himself could consider such an arrangement. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote last week that the front office “would be open” to bringing an offer to Crow-Armstrong. For his part, the youngster told Sharma he’s “always open to that conversation” as well.
Both the highs and the lows of Crow-Armstrong’s profile were on full display in 2024. He hit just .237/.286/.384 (87 wRC+) in 410 trips to the plate across 123 games… and his 2.7 fWAR in center field was still tied with Jacob Young of the Nationals for the eighth-highest figure of any player at the position last year thanks to his top-flight defensive and baserunning abilities. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths, including 22 straight steals without being caught. In the field, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field.
Impressive as his rookie season was in many ways, it’s undeniable that Crow-Armstrong’s bat left something to be desired. Among 31 center fielders to get at least 400 plate appearances last year, his aforementioned 87 wRC+ ranks just 20th and puts him well behind the production of similarly gifted center fielders like Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle. If the Cubs believe Crow-Armstrong will remain a below-average hitter, it’d be difficult to justify extending him when he’s already under team control through his age-28 season.
There were some signs of positive growth throughout the year, however. From July onward, Crow-Armstrong slashed .260/.309/.442 with a wRC+ of 108. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.6%) rates were both slightly improved in that time, but most of that offensive boost came from a power outburst. Crow-Armstrong entered July with just one home run but crushed nine more over his final 72 games. While Crow-Armstrong’s .085 ISO through the end of June would put him in line with Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez, his .185 ISO from July onward was more in line with hitters like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The increased power is reflected in more advanced metrics, as well. Crow-Armstrong’s barrel rate (4.3%) and hard-hit rate (29.8%) were both lackluster early in the season but from July onward increased to 8.9% and 40.3%, respectively.
Perhaps Harris, who signed an eight-year, $72MM extension with the Braves back in 2022, could be the most useful comp for Crow-Armstrong given his strong work in center field and up-and-down offensive production throughout his career to this point. Harris was in the midst of a dominant rookie season where he slashed .297/.339/.514 (137 wRC+) at the time of his deal with Atlanta and was also a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now, but lacked his pedigree as a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect while also providing far less defensive value than Crow-Armstrong does.
Lawrence Butler just signed a seven-year, $65.5MM extension but did so with more than a year of service. Glove-first position players with some offensive ceiling who signed long-term deals in recent years include Ke’Bryan Hayes (eight years, $70MM) and Ezequiel Tovar (seven years, $63.5MM). Most of those deals were signed when the player had five remaining years of club control, however. Crow-Armstrong has six.
If you were in the Cubs’ shoes, would you try to lock up Crow-Armstrong long-term despite his lack of consistent offensive track record? Or would you wait to see how he develops in 2025 and beyond, even at the risk that he substantially boosts his earning power with a breakout campaign? Have your say in the poll below:
Should the Cubs extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?
-
No, wait to see how he develops and risk a breakout raising his asking price. 52% (2,634)
-
Yes, offer him an extension despite questions about his bat. 48% (2,445)
Total votes: 5,079
White Sox Sign Travis Jankowski To Minor League Deal
The White Sox announced this morning that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Travis Jankowski to a minor league contract. The Excel Sports client will head straight to big league camp. He’d been with the Cubs on a minor league pact for the early portion of spring training. While the Cubs didn’t make any formal announcement about Jankowski’s release or him opting out of that deal, he’s clearly parted ways with Chicago’s north-side squad as they travel to Tokyo for next week’s series against the Dodgers.
Jankowski, 33, had a solid year with the Rangers in 2023 as the fourth outfielder on their World Series-winning roster. He appeared in 107 games, tallied 287 turns at the plate and delivered a respectable .263/.357/.332 batting line (97 wRC+) to go along with quality baserunning and glovework. He wasn’t able to follow up on that in a return effort with Texas in 2024; Jankowski played in 104 games last year but hit just .200/.266/.242 in 207 plate appearances.
Dating back to his 2015 MLB debut in San Diego, Jankowski has appeared in parts of ten straight big league seasons, suiting up for the Padres, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Mariners and Rangers along the way. He’s a lifetime .236/.319/.305 hitter with good speed who can handle all three spots in the outfield.
Jankowski will give the White Sox some outfield depth at a time when at least two members of their expected Opening Day roster are now slated for the injured list. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi suffered a broken hand when he was hit by a pitch earlier in Cactus League play. That injury will keep him off the field through at least the end of camp and possibly into mid-April. He’ll then need a rehab assignment. Reserve outfielder Austin Slater, who inked a one-year deal in free agency, is dealing with an oblique strain suffered last week. The Sox estimated he’d be out of game action for two to three weeks, leaving a season-opening IL placement a real possibility.
Jankowski is a known commodity for new White Sox skipper Will Venable, who was on the Rangers’ coaching staff for each of the past two seasons. He’ll compete for at-bats in left field or off the bench. Luis Robert Jr. is slated to man center field, with offseason signee Mike Tauchman in right. The ChiSox also signed Michael A. Taylor as a glove-first option off the bench. Other outfielders on the 40-man roster include Dominic Fletcher and Oscar Colas. Joey Gallo, Corey Julks and Cal Mitchell are among the other non-roster outfielders in camp.
Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs added star power in the Kyle Tucker trade, but otherwise made modest additions despite several other big swings.
Major League Signings
- Matthew Boyd, SP: two years, $29MM. Includes $15MM mutual option for 2027 with a $2MM buyout
- Carson Kelly, C: two years, $11.5MM. Includes $7.5MM mutual option for 2027 with a $1.5MM buyout
- Justin Turner, 1B/DH: one year, $6MM. Includes a $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
- Colin Rea, SP/RP: one year, $5MM. Includes $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
- Caleb Thielbar, RP: one year, $2.75MM
- Jon Berti, 3B/2B: one year, $2MM
2025 spending: $33.25MM
Total spending: $56.25MM
Option Decisions
- Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/1B: exercised $27.5MM player option for 2025
- Club declined $10MM mutual option with LHP Drew Smyly
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RP Rob Zastryzny off waivers from Brewers. Zastryzny was later outrighted, elected free agency, and signed with the Yankees.
- Acquired RP Eli Morgan from Guardians for OF Alfonsin Rosario
- Acquired C Matt Thaiss from Angels for cash considerations
- Selected 3B/SS Gage Workman from Tigers in Rule 5 draft
- Acquired RF Kyle Tucker from Astros for IF Isaac Paredes, P Hayden Wesneski, and 3B Cam Smith
- Acquired cash from White Sox for C Matt Thaiss
- Acquired P Cody Poteet from Yankees for OF/1B Cody Bellinger and $5MM
- Acquired IF Vidal Brujan from Marlins for 1B Matt Mervis
- Acquired RP Matt Festa from Rangers for cash considerations. Festa was later outrighted, elected free agency, and signed with the Rangers.
- Acquired cash considerations from Mariners for IF Miles Mastrobuoni
- Acquired cash considerations from Yankees for P Michael Arias
- Acquired RP Ryan Pressly and $5.5MM from Astros for SP Juan Bello
- Acquired cash from Orioles for IF Luis Vazquez
- Acquired RP Ryan Brasier and cash considerations from Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash
- Acquired cash considerations from Mets for OF Alexander Canario
Notable Minor League Signings
- Trevor Richards, Reese McGuire, Brad Keller, Nicky Lopez, Chris Flexen, Travis Jankowski, Phil Bickford, Ben Heller, Yency Almonte
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Paredes, Wesneski, Smith, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom, Drew Smyly, Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchman
Much like the previous winter with Marcus Stroman, this Cubs offseason kicked off with a pivotal player option decision that would affect their financial flexibility. This time, Cody Bellinger elected to take the $27.5MM owed to him in 2025 in lieu of a $2.5MM buyout, which also preserves a $25MM option on 2026 with a $5MM buyout. Bellinger's decision was not surprising, as he's now positioned himself to decline the '26 option having collected a total of $32.5MM for '25.
The Athletic's Patrick Mooney suggested a couple of times early in the offseason that the Cubs were seeking a starting pitcher who "could be trusted in a playoff game." Nonetheless, it wasn't long before Mooney's colleague Sahadev Sharma wrote that "the top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out" for the club. Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes would go on to sign contracts ranging from $182-218MM (though some included deferred money), and the Cubs were seemingly never a factor on them due to what I assume are philosophical objections to five-plus year commitments to thirty-something-aged free agent starters.
Instead, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made a pre-Winter Meetings strike for 34-year-old southpaw Matthew Boyd. Boyd was available on a two-year contract because of his age and injury history. After totaling 355 2/3 innings for the 2018-19 Tigers, Boyd has not reached 80 innings in a season since.
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Cubs Leave Keegan Thompson Off Tokyo Series Travel Roster
The Cubs are not carrying reliever Keegan Thompson among the 31 players on their Tokyo Series travel roster, writes Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Thompson is out of options and needs to be on the MLB team or removed from the 40-man roster. While the Cubs don’t need to make any transactions until next Tuesday’s regular season opener, it’s likely they’ll designate Thompson for assignment at that point.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged that Thompson has seemingly been squeezed out of the bullpen. “It is hard to evaluate Spring Training, but ultimately, that was how we made the decision,” he told Lee. “I thought Keegan threw well here, but ultimately, we felt like some guys were better. Realistically, we knew coming into camp that we’d have to make some hard decisions.”
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week, the Cubs are operating with limited roster flexibility in their bullpen. Thompson is one of six relievers on the 40-man who can’t be sent to the minors either because of their service time or out-of-options status. Colin Rea would be a seventh such reliever if he doesn’t win the fifth starter job and settles into long relief.
Non-roster invitee Brad Keller has generated positive buzz in camp. He cracked the travel roster, and while that doesn’t inherently mean he’ll make the team, the Cubs appear to be leaning towards selecting his contract. Keller, who would otherwise be able to retest free agency at the end of Spring Training, also has sufficient service time to refuse a minor league assignment once he’s on the 40-man.
The Cubs can’t accommodate all those out-of-options pitchers. They’re certainly not going to send down Porter Hodge. There’s a decent chance they’ll want to carry Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan as well. Chicago probably also needs to open two 40-man roster spots by next week. They’d need to put Keller on the 40-man if he makes the team. Top prospect Matt Shaw isn’t on the 40-man either. The Cubs haven’t officially declared that he’ll be called up, but it’s unlikely they’d have carried him on the travel roster if he weren’t going to play.
That combination of factors is likely to push Thompson off the roster. The former third-round pick hasn’t pitched much this spring. He allowed three runs on a trio of solo homers over 4 2/3 innings. Thompson worked to a 2.67 ERA over 30 1/3 innings last season. He fanned 28.3% of opponents but walked an alarming 14.2% of batters faced.
Thompson and the Cubs avoided arbitration on an $850K deal in November. If he is designated for assignment, Chicago would have five days to attempt to line up a trade or place him on waivers. With three years of arbitration control and a salary marginally above the league minimum, there’s a decent chance he’d draw interest from another team.
Matt Shaw Makes Cubs’ Tokyo Travel Roster
Cubs manager Craig Counsell informed reporters, including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, that infielder Matt Shaw will be on the club’s travel roster for next week’s Tokyo Series. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he will be making his major league debut in Japan but it means the possibility remains on the table. The club won’t make its final roster decisions until closer to the games, which take place on March 18th and 19th.
Throughout the winter, it has seemed like a distinct possibility for the 23-year-old Shaw to nab the Cubs’ third base job, even though he’s not on the 40-man roster and has no major league experience. He was just drafted in the summer of 2023 but has hit .303/.384/.522 in his 693 minor league plate appearances thus far. He spent most of last year in Double-A but finished his season with 35 Triple-A contests, hitting .298/.395/.534 in those.
The Cubs opened up a path to playing time for him by trading Isaac Paredes to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker deal, leaving the club without an obvious solution at the hot corner. Shaw has played the three infield positions to the left of first base but more at third than second or short.
More recently, there’s been an argument for pumping the brakes a bit. Shaw was slowed at the start of camp by an oblique issue and has been a bit behind schedule. He is in the lineup for today’s Cactus League game, which will be just his sixth spring contest.
The Cubs could have opted to leave Shaw behind for more reps, as opposed to undergoing the travel and time zone adjustments necessary to participate in the Tokyo Series. That’s the plan for second baseman Nico Hoerner, who is working his way back from flexor tendon surgery. Rather than travel all the way to Tokyo for a couple of exhibition games and the two games against the Dodgers, he plans to stay in camp and get regular reps, with his focus on being ready for domestic Opening Day.
The Cubs could have taken a similar tack with Shaw but it appears they will chart a different course. Shaw seems to be a bit ahead of Hoerner in terms of game readiness. Hoerner has been doing some batting practice and other such activities but hasn’t officially taken part in a game yet.
Travelling with the club to Tokyo doesn’t guarantee that Shaw will be added to the 40-man or active roster, as the Cubs and Dodgers will be travelling with 31 players each. Only 26 of those will be on the active roster, but it allows each club to have a bit of insurance in case an injury pops up while overseas. The club has Jon Berti, Justin Turner, Gage Workman and Vidal Bruján on the roster, with some combination of those guys capable of covering second and third for a couple of games without Hoerner or Shaw.
Still, the Cubs wouldn’t drag Shaw to Tokyo if there wasn’t a real chance of him getting to play. If he is to be added, the club would need to make space on the 40-man. If Shaw is added and spends enough time in the majors to earn a full service year in 2025, the Cubs would be in position to potentially earn an extra draft pick. Shaw is a consensus top 100 prospect and would therefore be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive if he is able to earn that full service year. He would then net the Cubs an extra pick if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting before qualifying for arbitration.
Cubs, Orioles Exploring Rotation Additions
There are still several starting pitchers available in free agency and it’s possible that mounting injuries could help create new opportunities for them. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that the Cubs and Orioles are two clubs exploring rotation additions. The Cubs reportedly had some talks with Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Pirates and are currently keeping tabs on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.
The Cubs don’t have a major health concern in their rotation at the moment. Javier Assad has been slowed by some oblique soreness and is trending towards starting the season on the injured list, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be out for an especially long time. The club’s projected top four of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are healthy. With Assad out, Colin Rea could perhaps take the fifth spot for a while. Or if he’s in a long relief role, guys like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Caleb Kilian or Cody Poteet could step up, though all the guys in that group have options and could also be in the Triple-A rotation.
However, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are facing an unusual spring. They have been ramping up a bit earlier than usual in anticipation of going to Japan soon. As part of the Tokyo Series, they will play a couple of exhibition games against Japanese clubs on March 15th and 16th, before playing regular season games against the Dodgers on March 18th and 19th. The Cubs are seemingly aware that some hiccups could arise with the unique schedule and are keeping the phone lines open.
At this part of the calendar, the market isn’t especially kind to players. The aforementioned Heaney signed with the Pirates a few weeks ago, a one-year deal with a guarantee of just $5.25MM. About a week ago, Jose Quintana signed with the Brewers for a $4.25MM guarantee. Coming into the winter, MLBTR predicted Heaney and Quintana to get two-year deals worth $24MM and $20MM respectively. Many pitchers outearned expectations earlier in the offseason but the market has clearly fallen off more recently.
A few months ago, Gibson and Lynn seemed like possibilities for eight-figure guarantees on one-year deals. But the fact that they have lingered unsigned while the market has softened means they are likely going to have to adjust their expectations if they want to sign. Rosenthal reports that unsigned pitchers are being asked to sign advanced consent forms, which allow clubs to terminate a contract within 45 days for any reason except injury and only have to pay the player for the time he spent on the roster. That’s obviously not ideal from a player’s perspective and it would only be signed if such a player had very little leverage.
Lynn, 38 in May, has a lengthy track record but isn’t riding a high tide of momentum at the moment. He posted a 5.73 earned run average in 2023, the worst of his career. He still was able to a secure a one-year, $11MM deal from the Cardinals and bounced back somewhat with a 3.84 ERA in 2024, but there were also some flags. He twice went on the injured list due to inflammation in his right knee, the same knee that had required surgical repair in 2022. Those IL stints limited him to 117 1/3 innings last year. While the ERA bounced back, his strikeout rate and velocity dropped.
Gibson, 37, is one of the steadiest pitchers in the league but lacks upside. He has logged at least 147 1/3 innings in each of the past ten major league seasons. However, he only posted an ERA below 4.20 in three of those. His 4.24 ERA last year was his best of the past three seasons.
Perhaps neither are as exciting as the aforementioned optionable pitchers that the Cubs have on hand, but they certainly have more experience. Between Brown, Wicks, Kilian and Poteet, there’s no one with even 85 big league innings.
For the Orioles, Rosenthal doesn’t specifically connect them to Gibson or Lynn, but it’s understandable that they would be keeping tabs on the market generally. Grayson Rodriguez has some elbow inflammation and is still getting some testing done but will start the season on the IL regardless. That leaves the O’s with a projected rotation of Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer. Manager Brandon Hyde has suggested the final spot is likely down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich.
Suárez is a journeyman who spent many years in Asia before returning to North American ball last year. He pitched in a swing role for the O’s in 2024 and logged a 3.70 ERA. Povich went into 2024 as a notable prospect but had a 5.20 ERA in his first 16 big league starts. Adding a veteran starter could allow the club to keep Suárez in a long relief role and bump Povich to the Triple-A rotation, while also adding depth to hedge against future injuries.
Signing at this part of the season does come with some perceived risk, however. As noted by Rosenthal, both Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery signed late last winter and the initial results were poor with both. Snell signed with the Giants in mid-March, then had a couple of IL stints in the first half. He eventually finished strong but was sitting on a 9.51 ERA when he returned from his second IL stint in July. Montgomery didn’t officially sign with the Diamondback until late March and never got on track, finishing the year with a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings.
The Cubs and Orioles are surely not the only clubs sniffing around the available starting pitchers. The Yankees will be without Luis Gil for months due to a lat strain and are facing the possibility of Gerrit Cole requiring Tommy John surgery. The Mariners are going to put George Kirby on the IL to start the year due to some shoulder inflammation. Other injuries will inevitably arise and lengthen that list.
For clubs looking to free agency, they will have to consider whether its worth the money to sign one of these vets and quickly ramp them up, as opposed to going with in-house options. Rosenthal notes that both Gibson and Lynn have been throwing in an attempt to be somewhat ready, though they would surely still need some game action somewhere to truly get in form. Other free agents of note include Patrick Corbin and Spencer Turnbull. Guys like Jordan Montgomery or Taijuan Walker may be available on the trade market.