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Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Trade Candidacy

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While the overwhelming majority of the focus on the Cubs’ outfield mix this winter has been on the trade candidacy of Cody Bellinger, teammate Seiya Suzuki has emerged as an intriguing trade candidate in his own right in recent weeks. Previous reporting has described the club as “determined” to move one of the two outfielders, and today Suzuki’s agent Joel Wolfe offered notable insight on the possibility of his client getting dealt, as relayed by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

Wolfe told reporters (including Rogers) this afternoon that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer approached him last night about which teams are interested in Suzuki’s services. Notably, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause, meaning that he and Wolfe are free to reject any trade proposal involving the outfielder. Wolfe suggested that while Suzuki is theoretically open to a trade, he added that “it’s a pretty small universe” in terms of teams he would be willing to entertain being moved to.

In addition to confirming that there are teams at least inquiring on Suzuki’s availability, Wolfe’s comments also revealed one potential motivation for Suzuki to entertain trade offers: his desire to play the outfield on a regular basis. Following the emergence of top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as the club’s everyday center fielder last summer, Suzuki found himself parked at DH on a regular basis once the club’s outfield mix was fully health and Bellinger cemented himself as the club’s regular right fielder. That’s a situation he was evidently displeased with, as Wolfe suggested that Suzuki likely “would not have signed with a team” who pitched being their everyday DH to him in free agency.

That potential source of discord between player and team shines a new light on the Cubs’ efforts to trade either Suzuki or Bellinger this winter. With Ian Happ locked in as the club’s left fielder and Crow-Armstrong having cemented himself in center, it’s undeniable that the club’s best defensive alignment with their current group of players involves Bellinger in right field with Suzuki at DH. Suzuki was well-regarded defensively for his work in the outfield during his NPB days but has oscillated between average and below average throughout his three seasons in the big leagues according to defensive metrics. His -3 Outs Above Average last year ranked 33rd among 42 qualified right fielders. While Bellinger did not get enough reps to qualify, he’s earned +2 Outs Above Average for his work across all three outfield spots in two seasons with the Cubs and is generally regarded as a plus defender in an outfield corner.

Of course, that’s not to say the Cubs would necessarily prefer to trade Suzuki. Indeed, the club’s apparent aggressiveness in shopping Bellinger suggests just the opposite, and it’s not hard to see why. For one things, Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary in 2025 eclipses the $19MM Suzuki is owed this year, and Bellinger’s player option for 2026 offers Chicago less certainty moving forward than Suzuki’s guaranteed contract. What’s more, Suzuki is a better hitter and perhaps even the best hitter on the team. The 29-year-old’s .283/.366/.482 (138 wRC+) slash line this year dwarfs Bellinger’s own line of .266/.325/.426 (109 wRC+), and Suzuki has long been a statcast darling who hits the ball hard and takes his walks compared to Bellinger’s low exit velocities and contact-oriented approach.

To that end, Cubs GM Carter Hawkins spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) this afternoon and downplayed the likelihood of a trade.

“We don’t want to trade Seiya,” Hawkins said, as relayed by Montemurro. “but, look, as [Wolfe] talked about there’s people interested in great players and so if teams come asking those are at least conversations that we’re willing to have, but I really don’t think much is going to come of it.“

Hawkins’s comments lend further credence to previous reporting regarding Suzuki’s availability that suggested while the Cubs were willing to entertain offers for the slugger, a deal was only likely to come together if Chicago was unable to trade Bellinger. To this point, Bellinger has received reported interest from the Yankees, Mariners, Astros, and Diamondbacks at the very least, suggesting that a Bellinger trade remains the more likely outcome unless the market for his services falls apart in the coming days and weeks.

Yankees, Cubs Interested In Kyle Tucker

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Astros general manager Dana Brown left the door open yesterday to trading either outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. Today, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link) reports that the Yankees and Cubs are two clubs interested in Tucker.

The news isn’t especially surprising. Tucker is one of the best players in the league and it would actually be more of a shock if any club weren’t interested in him. He is entering his final year of club control, which should eliminate teams fully in rebuild mode, but he should have broad interest apart from that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary next year, a notable sum but still affordable for any team and a bargain for a player of Tucker’s talent level.

From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s production was fairly consistent and also trending upward. He hit 30 home runs in the first two of those seasons and then 29 in the third. His walk and strikeout rates each made slight improvements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% in the next two seasons, while his strikeout rate went from 15.9% to 15.6% and then 13.9%. His stolen base total went from 14 to 25 to 30.

In 2024, he missed significant time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That injury limited his counting stats but he continued to improve on a rate basis. Though his strikeout rate ticked back up to 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Despite only getting into 78 games, he launched another 23 home runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his previous three seasons but jumped to 180 in 2024.

He’s also been graded as a strong defender and, as mentioned, can steal a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as worth either 4.9 or 5.0 wins above replacement in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2024 even though he played less than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the past four years, placing him in 13th among all position players for that span. Thanks to his shin injury, all 12 guys ahead of him on that list played in more games.

There are some rough parallels here with the Juan Soto situation from a year ago. The Padres were willing to make Soto’s final year of club control available on the trade market in order to walk a tightrope. They wanted to continue competing but had a tight budget and had several players that were difficult to trade due to contractual reasons. Moving Soto freed up a huge amount of payroll space and also brought back immediate help in other areas, as the Friars were able to get a package of players that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Cease.

The Astros are in a somewhat similar spot now. Brown previously said that the club might have to get creative with money this offseason, even though they still want to win next year. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have big contracts but are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly each have the right to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be easily moved due to his health status.

They don’t really have to consider a trade but it seems they will pick up the phone and see if any club blows them away with a Soto-like package. Tucker’s track record isn’t quite as good as Soto’s but Soto was projected for a $33MM salary going into 2024, more than double what Tucker is slated to earn next year.

It’s theoretically possible that they can get a package of young talent they like while simultaneously freeing up some payroll space to re-sign Alex Bregman, since Brown and owner Jim Crane have both marked that as the club’s top priority. That would leave the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, though it’s possible they get some cheaper outfield help back in the trade.

The Yankees, of course, wanted to re-sign Soto as a free agent but he is now going to become a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a big hole in their outfield and they have to pivot to other possibilities. The free agent market features guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández while the Yankees have been connected to trade candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker would be a more attractive option than any of those three in a vacuum but a deal coming together would naturally depend on what it would take for the Astros to let him go.

The Yankees still have Aaron Judge as their outfield anchor and might move him back to right field for the post-Soto era, with Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham options for center. Tucker is strong in right field, so perhaps the Yanks would consider moving him to left. Due to the short porch in right, there’s more grass to cover in left field, making defense over there more of a concern.

There shouldn’t be any financial issue, as the Yankees just reportedly make Soto an offer of $760MM over 16 years, an average annual value of $47.5MM. They will now be looking to spread that kind of money around to other players and Tucker is only projected to get about a third of that.

For the Cubs, they already have a crowded outfield picture but clearly have interest in shaking it up a bit. Bellinger has been in many rumors this winter and Seiya Suzuki’s name has come up as well. Trading either is complicated, in Bellinger’s case due to his upcoming out-out while Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. Those two project to be in an outfield group that also includes Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as youngsters like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ also has a no-trade clause while the Cubs probably want to hang onto the younger guys. Each of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger perhaps departing a year earlier than that.

As mentioned, just about every contender should be calling the Astros to get a sense of the asking price. There are no guarantees that he can be obtained but even the possibility that he’s available makes him one of the most interesting names to watch in the coming weeks.

Cubs Interested In A.J. Minter, Kyle Finnegan

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The Cubs have been expected to make moves to bolster their bullpen this offseason even after acquiring right-hander Eli Morgan from the Guardians last month, and two names have emerged that Chicago has reported interest in. Jon Morosi of MLB Network writes that the Cubs are among the teams with interest in left-hander A.J. Minter, while ESPN’s Jesse Rogers notes that the club has spoken to right-hander Kyle Finnegan.

Minter, 31, is one of the winter’s more interesting free agent relievers. The southpaw broke out with the Braves during the 2020 season and has been one of the better lefty relief arms in baseball since then with a 2.85 ERA and a matching 2.84 FIP in 243 innings over the past half-decade. In that time, he’s struck out 30.1% of his opponents while walking 7.8%. Among lefty relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season, Minter’s 3.05 SIERA ranks third in the majors behind only Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers.

That track record would seemingly be enough to line him up for one of the more lucrative relief contracts of the offseason, but Minter’s free agency is complicated by a difficult platform season. In 2024, Minter managed a solid 2.62 ERA but saw his strikeout rate dip to just 26.1% while his FIP ballooned up to 4.45 due primarily to an increase in home runs allowed. More problematic for Minter than those steps backward in peripherals, however, was the season-ending hip surgery Minter underwent back in August. Recent reporting has indicated that it’s not yet clear whether Minter will be ready to pitch at the outset of the 2025 season, a reality that could cast a shadow over his free agency if interested teams believe he’s ticketed for a substantial early-season absence.

As for Finnegan, the 33-year-old has spent all five seasons of his big league career with the Nationals but was non-tendered by the club last month. After impressing in his 2020 rookie campaign with a 2.92 ERA in 25 innings, Finnegan stood as the club’s primary closer throughout their recent rebuild. He racked up 88 saves over the next four seasons, pitching to a 3.62 ERA that was 13% better than league average in 265 2/3 innings of work during that time despite a somewhat lackluster 4.28 FIP.

Despite his gaudy save totals, which includes a 38-for-43 record (88.4% conversion rate) in save situations this past season, Finnegan’s numbers cast him as more of a middle reliever than a true closer. He’s struck out just 23.3% of opponents over the last four years while walking 9.3%, and while his 47.5% career groundball rate is certainly above average it’s not exactly exceptional as Finnegan ranks just 22nd among relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season by the metric. In that same timeframe, Finnegan’s 3.86 SIERA is well below average for a reliever and ranks just 55th among 70 qualifying relievers.

With that being said, Finnegan’s somewhat middling numbers throughout his career could make him relatively affordable on the open market, and the Cubs’ hesitance in recent years to commit to pricey guarantees for relievers could lead them to be intrigued by the upside offered by a hurler who averaged 97.4 mph on his fastball last year and offers late-inning experience that could benefit a mostly young bullpen that currently features Porter Hodge as its top high leverage option after the righty posted a dominant rookie campaign in 2024. Minter, by contrast, figures to a land a healthier guarantee so long as his market isn’t depressed by the health question marks surrounding him. MLBTR predicted the lefty to land a two-year, $16MM guarantee as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where he ranked 34th.

Yankees Expected To Move Aaron Judge Back To Right Field In 2025

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Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge is currently expected to move back to his longtime position of right field for the 2025 season, according to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Judge has appeared in right field during more than 75% of his career games in the outfield but played center field almost exclusively in 2024 in order to accommodate the addition of Juan Soto to the club’s lineup. Now that Soto has departed for Queens on a record-breaking deal, however, Judge will be able to return to his old stomping grounds.

“We’re not afraid to run [Judge] out in center like we’ve done, but I think it makes sense to have him over in right,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Monday, as relayed by Hoch. He went on to suggest that sliding Judge back to his natural position offers top outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez a “clear lane” to capture the starting center field job entering Spring Training, though Hoch notes that Cashman added he isn’t currently ready to anoint the 21-year-old as the club’s starter for next season.

Even if the club ultimately opts to send Dominguez back to Triple-A (where he’s hit well but has just 53 total games under his belt) to open the 2025 campaign, the club figures to have number of options they could consider that would keep Judge in right. Perhaps the most obvious internal solution for center outside of Dominguez is Trent Grisham, who the club avoided arbitration with last month by agreeing to a $5MM contract despite the fact that Grisham was strictly used as a bench player by the club after being acquired from the Padres alongside Soto last winter. The 28-year-old appeared in 76 games last year as a late-inning defensive replacement or to fill in for Judge in center field when the slugger had the day off or was DH’ing for the day, but received just 209 plate appearances total despite being an everyday player in San Diego in each of the previous four seasons.

Grisham’s .190/.290/.385 slash line was good for a decent 91 wRC+, and a .217 BABIP that was well below his career norms may suggest room for positive regression going forward. That decent bat combined with an elite glove at a premium position makes Grisham a plausible candidate for a starting role, and Hoch suggests the club could look for a right-handed center fielder to pair with Grisham at the position this winter. Grisham and Dominguez aren’t the only internal options the club has in center, as Jazz Chisholm Jr. has two seasons’ worth of experience at the position from his time in Miami. With that said, Hoch did not mention Chisholm as even a theoretical candidate for the position headed into 2025, and all signs point to the Yankees planning to use the 26-year-old sparkplug at either second or third base next year.

Turning back to Grisham, the extremely thin market for center fielders this winter could pose an obstacle to any plans of platooning him in center as the Yankees would likely be limited to light-hitting bench players with impressive defense like Harrison Bader, Michael A. Taylor, and Cristian Pache. One other potential addition the Yankees could make to their outfield mix who is capable of playing center would be Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger. The Yankees are known to have at least checked in on the 2019 NL MVP this winter, and Hoch reiterates that the club is “intrigued” by 29-year-old. Bellinger is coming off a down season in Chicago where he hit a solid but unspectacular .266/.325/.426 (109 wRC+) in 130 games. While Bellinger’s 7.9% walk rate was solid and his 15.6% strikeout rate was genuinely impressive, he mustered only 18 home runs with the Cubs this year after clubbing 26 the year prior.

That’s still solid production, but a combination of Bellinger’s hefty $27.5MM salary for 2025 and the Cubs’ deep mix of outfield options has led the club to shop him quite aggressively this winter. According to Hoch, the Yankees’ interest in Bellinger stems at least in part from his positional versatility. Bellinger is a roughly average defensive center fielder at this stage of his career, offering less upside with the glove than a player like Grisham or even Dominguez but more than capable of handling the position on a regular basis if needed. That defense goes from average to well above average when Bellinger is parked in either outfield corner, and he’s also capable of handling first base with nearly 2500 career innings in the majors at the position. Judge stands as the only player locked into everyday reps in the club’s outfield mix next year with Soto now out of the picture, and given the club’s hole at first base it’s easy to see how acquiring a player like Bellinger could offer them plenty of flexibility as they look to retool their roster with a number of possible targets for both the infield and outfield on the table.

Mariners Turned Down Triston Casas Trade Offer From Red Sox

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The Mariners’ pitching depth over the last few seasons has drawn many teams into trade talks and it was almost exactly a year ago that reports surfaced about Boston’s interest in the Seattle rotation.  Nothing materialized between the two teams then, but Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times report that earlier this offseason, the Red Sox offered first baseman Triston Casas for either Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.  However, these “exploratory talks” then “didn’t progress any further,” as the M’s don’t have interest in trading from their rotation unless it is something of a last resort.

Given the contrasting strengths and weaknesses of the Mariners and Red Sox, a pitching-for-hitting swap would seem like an ideal answer to both team’s needs.  While Miller or Woo might not be precisely the kind of ace the Sox are looking for to reinforce their rotation, obviously both are talented young arms with upside and team control — neither Miller or Woo is eligible for arbitration yet, and both are controlled through the 2029 season.  Likewise, Casas is controlled through 2028 and has already shown glimpses of his potential at the MLB level.

Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has consistently turned down past offers for Miller, Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo.  Recent reports suggest that the M’s are at least open to hearing what teams have to say about Castillo (the oldest and highest-paid member of the rotation), but Divish and Jude write that “the Mariners….are not actively shopping Castillo.”

Nothing is stopping Dipoto from hearing what teams might have to say, just in case someone steps forth with an offer too good to refuse.  However, Dipoto told Divish and other reporters today that “our initial reluctance to any type of deeper discussions on trading starting pitching has probably resulted in a lot fewer phone calls than we’ve usually fielded to this point in the offseason.”

The result is perhaps something of a stalemate, as the Mariners are waiting for rival teams to lower their asking prices and other clubs are waiting for the M’s to become more open to the idea of trading from the rotation depth.  Things could evolve once some free agent pitchers come off the board, or perhaps if the Mariners themselves added a pitcher in the form of Roki Sasaki.  While virtually every team in baseball will be making an appeal to the Japanese ace now that his posting window is officially open, Seattle’s track record with both pitching development and star Japanese players would seemingly put the M’s move above most teams in the bidding process.

In the interim, it seems as though the Mariners will continue to focus on trying to trade from its minor league depth, except as Dipoto notes, “it’s the time where prospects aren’t a driver, where just about everybody is focused on major league players.  And I don’t know why that seems different to me now than it usually does, and maybe that too changes in a week or two with the free agent market really opening up.”

Since shortstop J.P. Crawford is the only established member of the Mariners’ infield, landing a promising first base talent like Casas would go a long way towards shoring up the infield and the shaky lineup as a whole.  That said, the Mariners have at least a part-time first base option already in Luke Raley, who looks to be getting a good chunk of playing time against right-handed pitching.

Since the M’s have been linked to such second or third base trade candidates as Nico Hoerner or Alec Bohm, it could be that Seattle might be trying to address one of those positions first before turning to the comparatively easier-to-fill position of first base.  An industry source told Divish and Jude that the Mariners could look into trying to add a third team into talks with the Cubs about Hoerner, perhaps to help cover some of the money owed in the remaining two years of Hoerner’s contract.

From Boston’s perspective, trading Casas wouldn’t necessarily create a vacancy at first base.  Rafael Devers is a subpar defender at third base, and reportedly the Sox have at least considered moving him to first base in order to open up the hot corner either for one of Boston’s up-and-coming infield prospects, or perhaps for a big free agent like Alex Bregman.  This remains a speculative topic for now, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) today that he hasn’t spoken with Devers about a position change, and Cora in fact praised Devers’ third base work in 2024 as “outstanding.”

Then again, there is no shortage of gamesmanship going on during the offseason, as it was just last month that Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow downplayed the idea of trading Casas.  Reports then surfaced this past weekend that the Sox were considering the possibility of dealing Casas for pitching, and this apparent offer for Miller or Woo only reinforces the idea that Casas is far from an untouchable part of the Red Sox roster.  Of course, this also isn’t to say that Casas is going to be moved for anything less than a premium return.

Cubs, Carson Kelly Nearing A Deal

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The Cubs are reportedly progressing toward a contract with free agent catcher Carson Kelly, according to both Robert Murray of FanSided and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers confirmed their reports, describing an agreement between the two sides as “close.” The Cubs have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will be necessary before they finalize the deal.

Kelly, 30, is coming off a bounceback season with the Tigers and Rangers. Once a promising young catcher for the Diamondbacks, he fell out of favor in the organization with his poor performance at the plate in 2022 and ’23. They released him in August 2023 with close to $1MM remaining on his contract. The Tigers quickly scooped him up, and after the season, they picked up his $3.5MM option for 2024.

That proved to be the right decision. Kelly turned in a strong season at the plate and in the field, allowing the Tigers to flip him to the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline. While he didn’t play quite as well in Texas as he had in Detroit, he finished the season with a perfectly respectable batting line (.238/.313/.374, 99 wRC+) and strong defensive metrics. All told, he produced 1.8 FanGraphs WAR in just 91 games and 313 trips to the plate. For the sake of comparison, Cubs catchers combined for -0.1 fWAR this past season.

Chicago has struggled behind the dish since letting Willson Contreras walk after the 2022 campaign. In 2024, Cubs catchers ranked third-last in the NL in Fielding Run Value (per Baseball Savant) and second-last in OPS and wRC+. According to FanGraphs WAR, no NL club received less production from the catcher position. Needless to say, the front office is aware of these shortcomings. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer failed in his efforts to add a backstop at the trade deadline, but The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported after the deadline that Hoyer would continue to pursue catching during the offseason.

Ideally, that would mean a starting-caliber catcher to usurp the incumbent Miguel Amaya. Sharma noted back in August that the Cubs see Amaya as a backup in the long run. Funnily enough, Amaya happened to hit quite well from the day that report came out to the end of the season (.770 OPS, 114 wRC+ in 34 games), but his career numbers speak much louder than that small sample size performance. He has a .657 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 170 career games. His defense has been passable, but not enough to make up for a well-below-average bat. All that to say, the Cubs needed an upgrade.

However, the market for free agent catchers moved quickly this offseason, to the point where Chicago’s options started to look slim. Kelly is one of the few catchers still available who should be an upgrade over Amaya. Indeed, Kelly might be the only everyday catcher left on the market, depending on how you feel about Yasmani Grandal and Elias Díaz (and how much you’re willing to stretch the definition of an “everyday” catcher). Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez are already off the board.

Matt Thaiss, who the Cubs acquired from the Angels earlier this offseason, is nothing more than another potential backup. With Kelly taking the majority of the reps behind the dish, Thaiss and Amaya will presumably compete for a bench role in 2025. Both are out of minor league options, so one will likely be traded or DFA’d at some point before Opening Day. Amaya has been the more productive player over the last two seasons, providing a similar level of offense and significantly better defense. However, Thaiss could have a leg up as a left-handed batter; Kelly bats right-handed, so the Cubs might like a lefty-batting backup. What’s more, the Cubs might prefer to DFA Amaya, who doesn’t have the necessary MLB service time to reject an outright assignment should he pass through waivers.

Cody Bellinger Generating Trade Interest, Seiya Suzuki Trade Less Likely

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Cody Bellinger is quickly becoming one of the most talked-about trade candidates of the offseason. Earlier this month, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Cubs were “determined” to trade one of Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic added further detail to that story today, noting that the team would prefer to part with Bellinger. Dealing Suzuki doesn’t seem like anything more than a backup plan in case no Bellinger trade comes together. 

Sharma goes on to mention that there “seems to be real interest” in Bellinger on the trade market, thus pouring cold water on the possibility of a Suzuki deal (at least for now). Indeed, Bellinger has already been linked to the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Yankees, and Astros this winter, and Sharma suggests that the market for Bellinger could heat up now that Juan Soto has signed with the Mets. It seems the Cubs have been shopping Bellinger as a second choice for teams that missed out on the lefty-batting superstar. Bellinger is no Soto, but he can provide above-average offense from the same side of the plate and a much better glove in the outfield. He may not be a perennial MVP contender, but he does have superstar upside, even if his 2019 MVP season is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror.

As for Suzuki, it’s not hard to understand why the Cubs would prefer to hold onto the righty bat. He is set to make $19MM in each of the next two seasons, while Bellinger will make $27.5MM in 2025 and has a player option for $25MM in 2026. Trading Bellinger would free up more payroll space for the coming season and would free the Cubs of his player option; as the name suggests, player options are inherently player-friendly. Furthermore, Suzuki is coming off a stronger season than Bellinger. While Bellinger is a better defender and baserunner, Suzuki is a more reliable middle-of-the-order bat. Bellinger’s offense has been much less stable in recent years. Thus, Suzuki looks like a bargain at $19MM per year, while Bellinger presumably would have opted out of his contract this winter if he thought he could do better on the open market.

For all of those same reasons, Suzuki’s trade market would probably be more robust than Bellinger’s. However, it doesn’t seem as if the Cubs are necessarily trying to maximize their return. Rather, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might simply need to create more payroll flexibility to address areas of greater need on the roster. After all, the Cubs have no shortage of outfield and/or designated hitter types in the organization. That includes center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, left-fielder Ian Happ, and top prospects Kevin Alcántara, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie.

What the Cubs could use more of is pitching. After signing Matthew Boyd, they reportedly remain interested in adding another starter (per Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). Over the past few days, the club has been linked to free agent Walker Buehler and trade candidates Jordan Montgomery and Garrett Crochet. As much as they could use another arm, however, the Cubs might not be willing to pay for another starter without first removing some money from the books. On a related note, Sharma says Chicago has also shown “some interest” in Jack Flaherty but only if his price tag is low enough.

In theory, the Cubs should be able to sign a top-end starting pitcher like Flaherty without trading Bellinger or Suzuki. Their estimated 2025 payroll currently sits around $185MM, according to RosterResource. That’s $43MM lower than last season’s final estimate. They’re also about $40MM under the first luxury tax threshold, which should give them plenty of wiggle room even if they’d like to get back under the tax in 2025. However, Chicago’s eagerness to shop Bellinger and reluctance to court Flaherty certainly suggest that Hoyer is working under payroll constraints as he looks to get the Cubs back to the playoffs for the first time in his tenure as president of baseball operations.

Cubs Sign Matthew Boyd

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DECEMBER 9: The Cubs made Boyd’s signing official on Saturday and Robert Murray of FanSided (X link) has the full contract details today. Boyd gets a $5MM signing bonus and a salary of $7.5MM in 2025, followed by a $14.5MM salary in 2026. There is a $2MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option for 2027. As for the bonuses, Boyd gets $100K for getting to 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 innings pitched in each season.

DECEMBER 2: The Cubs have agreed with left-hander Matthew Boyd on a two-year deal that will guarantee him $29MM, per a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The deal includes $1MM in performance bonuses, $500K each year, that could take the total guarantee to $30MM over two years. Boyd is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Boyd, 34 in February, made his big league debut with the Blue Jays back in 2018 but established himself in the majors as a member of the Tigers the following year. From 2016 to 2020, Boyd served as a slightly below league average starter for Detroit with a 4.75 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.54 FIP in 727 innings of work. The southpaw at times flashed exciting peripherals, such as the 2019 season when he punched out 30.2% of opponents in 185 1/3 frames while walking just 6.3%, but his overall body of work cast him as more of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm than anything else.

Matthew Boyd pitching for the Cleveland Guardians.

Boyd’s time with the Tigers came to a close when he required surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon late in the 2021 campaign, which left him limited to just ten relief appearances as a member of the Mariners. He returned to the Tigers in 2023 but made just 15 starts to lackluster results before going under the knife a second time, this time due to Tommy John surgery.

Once again a free agent coming off major surgery, Boyd remained unsigned headed into the 2024 season before eventually landing a big league deal with the Guardians back in June. The lefty didn’t make his season debut until mid-August after building up to game readiness in the minor leagues, but once he suited up for Cleveland he looked quite good with a 2.72 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 39 2/3 innings of work across eight starts down the stretch. He struck out 27.7% of his opponents while walking just 7.3%, which would have given Boyd one of the better K-BB% figures for a starter in the sport this year if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. He built on that solid regular season performance with a strong showing during the Guardians’ run to the ALCS. He pitched 12 innings for the club across four appearances (three starts), and struck out 28% of opponents while posting a dazzling 0.75 ERA.

That strong finish to Boyd’s season left the southpaw poised to garner plenty of interest in free agency this winter, even in spite of his checkered injury history. MLBTR ranked Boyd as the #23 free agent in this winter’s class on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, and predicted a two-year, $25MM guarantee that comes in just below the pact he ultimately landed with the Cubs. Boyd becomes the fifth starting pitcher to sign a multi-year deal this winter, joining Michael Wacha’s three-year deal with the Royals, Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year pact with the Angels, Blake Snell’s five-year contract with the Dodgers, and the two-year agreement between Frankie Montas and the Mets that was reported earlier this evening.

Notably, four of the five were unencumbered by draft pick compensation in a pitching market where plenty of borderline candidates such as Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino were extended the qualifying offer by their clubs. (Wacha re-signed in Kansas City the day before QOs were tendered but would very likely have received one.) Each pitcher has landed a deal that come in at or above expectations.

Even so, that seems to have pushed clubs that aren’t interested in signing a qualified free agent to act quickly. The calendar has only just flipped to December the market is already beginning to thin in terms of starters who aren’t attached to a qualifying offer. MLBTR predicted multi-year deals for just four more free agent starters who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation this winter: Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jose Quintana.

Turning back to the Cubs, the addition of Boyd adds another capable veteran arm to a rotation that already features lefties Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga as well as right-hander Jameson Taillon. Adding to the rotation has been a well-established priority for the club this winter, though early reports of plans to shop for a top-of-the-rotation arm eventually gave way to the suggestion Chicago could instead look for arms a tier or two below that pedigree. Boyd fits the latter description, given his roughly league-average work throughout his career and his recent struggles with injuries. The lefty has been limited to just 202 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season, and in that time he’s posted a 4.04 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 3.97 FIP and a 23.2% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate.

While Boyd may not necessarily profile as a front-end starter, it’s still not hard to imagine him providing an upgrade to the Cubs’ rotation when healthy. After all, the lefty was legitimately impactful for the Guardians this year in both the regular season and the playoffs, and that success being a late-career step forward rather than a simple hot streak can’t be ruled out for a pitcher who has long shown flashes of dominance throughout his time in the majors. What’s more, Chicago is perhaps uniquely well-equipped to handle any absences caused by future injuries thanks to a deep group of optionable arms that includes Ben Brown, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski who can step into the rotation fairly seamlessly if needed.

For the time being, that quartet appears likely to vie for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation this spring, with Assad as the early front-runner after a generally successful (3.73 ERA, 4.64 FIP) season as a starter in 2024. RosterResource currently projects the Cubs for a $176MM payroll in 2025, and the Boyd deal should move that up to the $191MM range. That still leaves a bit more than $20MM of breathing room relative to the club’s 2024 Opening Day payroll, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes sat just over $214MM. It’s not impossible to imagine the club pursuing another starter to strengthen their rotation through either free agency or trade this winter with the financial flexibility the club has remaining, but given the club’s needs at catcher and in the bullpen it seems those funds will likely be used elsewhere—at least unless a trade of Cody Bellinger clears some additional money off the club’s books.

Garrett Crochet Rumors: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds

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7:28pm: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

4:23pm: Garrett Crochet’s status as the offseason’s top trade candidate means that there is plenty of buzz surrounding the White Sox southpaw as the Winter Meetings get underway.  A crosstown trade could be a possibility, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs “have had at least preliminary talks” with the Sox about Crochet’s availability.

The Cubs’ list of top prospects is heavy on position players, which could fit with White Sox GM Chris Getz’s stated aim of obtaining premium position-player talent in exchange for Crochet’s services.  It is easy to imagine Getz asking for at least one of Matt Shaw or Owen Caissie as a headliner in a trade package, or perhaps even Pete Crow-Armstrong if the Sox wanted a player with some actual big league experience.  Given the Cubs’ depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might feel comfortable in parting with a younger blue-chipper in order to land a controllable pitcher.

Crochet is projected to earn only $2.9MM in arbitration this season, and he is under one further year of team control in 2026.  Even if Crochet’s production takes a dip from his 2024 numbers, he’d still be a bargain in comparison to the cost of the average starting pitcher.  This might be the type of special circumstance that would make the Cubs want to keep adding to their rotation, even though the Wrigleyville starting five already seems set with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and new signing Matthew Boyd.

The White Sox are known to have a very high asking price on Crochet, and apparently had interest in at least one of Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries in trade talks with the Padres, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  San Diego has been linked to Crochet on the rumor mill since prior to the trade deadline, yet the Friars have seemingly drawn a line when it comes to moving either of the top two prospects in their farm system.

The Padres and Cubs are just two of the many clubs known to have had some level of interest in Crochet in the last six months, and given his low price, it’s probably safe to say just about every team in baseball has probably at least checked in with Getz about what it would take to land the left-hander.  The Yankees refused to deal Spencer Jones to the White Sox for Crochet prior to the deadline, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X link) writes that New York is still “believed to be in” on the Crochet sweepstakes.

Boston may be a different story, as Cotillo hears that the Red Sox are “just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all.”  This tracks with reporting from Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam a couple of weeks ago, as McAdam wrote that negotiations between the two Sox teams had seemingly quieted.  On paper, the Red Sox would seemingly be an ideal fit for Crochet given Boston’s need for frontline pitching and their collection of elite position-player prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel), but obviously a match depends on what exactly Chicago would want back in return.  For instance, there have been reports that Anthony and Campbell are the true untouchables within the “big four” Red Sox prospects, so talks might have cooled with the White Sox are insisting on one of those two.

There appear to be mixed signals on whether or not the Reds could be involved.  Cotillo writes that “Cincinnati [is] seen as a real threat to land Crochet,” but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer throws cold water on the possibility, saying that “the talks went nowhere” between the Reds and White Sox, “and there’s no reason to think they’ll re-engage at this point.”  Wittenmyer notes that the two sides discussed Crochet before Cincinnati acquired Brady Singer from the Royals, so that deal could mark the end of any higher-level pitching moves the Reds could make.

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