The latter stages of the 2023-24 offseason were focused on the so-called “Boras Four.” Each of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery lingered on the open market beyond the start of Spring Training and signed deals below the forecasts from the early winter. Agent Scott Boras, who represents all four of that group, discussed the matter with Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, noting that he and the players were likely going to be deciding between long-term deals or shorter pacts but with higher annual salaries.
“I don’t think their predictions included what we were fully aware of,” Boras said of media predictions coming into the winter, “and that is, clubs were going to come to us and say, ‘We’re not going to look at length with premium AAVs (average annual values) because of what preceded their performance prior to 2023.” He used Snell and Bellinger as examples of how clubs could look past the 2023 season and focus on prior seasons.
“Blake Snell has $30 million a year for a couple of years to go out and just show durability,” Boras said. “Blake Snell doesn’t have to go out and win the Cy Young every year. He’s an extraordinary pitcher. The market viewed him as, what happened in ‘21 and ‘22? The market viewed Cody as, what happened in ‘21 and ‘22? So we knew going into this process that choices were going to be most important. You’re either going to get the appropriate AAV, but you’re not going to get the length, or you’re going to get the length at a much lower AAV, so what do you choose?”
The comments provide an interesting look into the sorts of tough decisions a free agent has to make. Even if a player is incredibly talented and lucky enough to stay healthy beyond their arbitration years, they are likely to only sign one really significant contract in their career. While some players in that position may just take the best guarantee available when the opportunity arises, others seem willing to kick the can down the road if they can’t find the ideal deal.
Snell was surely looking to cash in after a Cy Young-winning season wherein he posted a 2.25 earned run average for the Padres. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell could ride the momentum of his trophy win to a deal of $200MM over seven years, with other media outlets making similar prognostications.
It appears that type of deal never materialized, with the largest reported offer he received being a six-year, $150MM deal from the Yankees. In the end, he pivoted to a two-year, $62MM deal from the Giants, which allows him the chance to opt-out midway through. As Boras alluded to, Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He fell short of 130 innings in both 2021 and 2022, with an ERA of 4.20 in the former and 3.38 in the latter.
Bellinger was in a somewhat similar position. He was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019 but went through a real rough patch after suffering a shoulder injury. He hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers. A one-year deal with the Cubs gave him the opportunity to bounce back, which he did, hitting 26 home runs and stealing 20 bases while providing quality defense in center field and first base.
It would appear that clubs used the inconsistency of those players to justify not maximizing their offers this winter, so Snell pivoted to the aforementioned short-term deal. Bellinger got a three-year deal worth $80MM to return to the Cubs, with opt-outs after each year. Both players can bank some money this year and hopefully return to the open market next winter, with the extra years on the deal providing a bit of a safety net in the case of renewed struggles or health problems this year.
It’s a tactic Boras has taken before, with Carlos Correa perhaps being the best example prior to this winter. Correa first hit free agency in the winter of 2021-22, which was impacted by the lockout. He didn’t find a deal to his liking prior to the stoppage and hired Boras during the transactions freeze. After the new collective bargaining agreement was agreed to, he signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins which allowed him to opt-out after each season.
After another strong season in 2022, he triggered his opt-out and returned to the open market. He finally found the mega deal that he was looking for when he and the Giants agreed to a 13-year, $350MM framework. That deal eventually got scuttled when the Giants grew concerned by Correa’s medicals, as did another pact with the Mets, but Correa still got himself a sizeable $200MM guarantee to return to the Twins. That deal can also max out at $270MM via four vesting options.
That is the type of playbook that each of the Boras four will be looking to follow, though obviously without the part where deals gets thrown out by physicals. Chapman got three years and $54MM from the Giants, also with opt-outs. Montgomery got one year and $25MM from the Diamondbacks, with a vesting player option valued at $20MM if he makes just 10 starts this year.
The hope will be that each can continue to perform well in 2024 and hopefully find better conditions next winter. The 2023-24 offseason saw many clubs scale back spending, either due to competitive balance tax concerns or uncertainty around television revenue. “One billion dollars was removed from the ability to contract players,” is the way Boras frames it. He and his clients will be hoping some of that money is back on the table next winter.
