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White Sox To Sign Jake Woodford To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Jake Woodford is signing a minor league contract with the White Sox, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. The Excel Sports Management client will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Woodford, 27, will jump to a new organization for the first time in his career. He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2015 and was a part of that org until he was non-tendered in November of last year. He mostly worked in a swing role in the big leagues and had some decent seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 116 innings with a 3.26 earned run average. His 15.4% strikeout rate in that time was well below league average but he kept his walks down to a 7.5% clip and got grounders on 45.8% of balls in play.

Unfortunately, things went off the rails in 2023, as he posted a 6.23 ERA in 47 2/3 innings, as his strikeout rate fell even farther to 13.1% and his walk rate ticked up to 9.9%. Despite his ground ball tendencies, he also allowed 11 home runs in that small sample of work. He was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Woodford for a salary of $1.1MM, just a bit north of next year’s $740K minimum. But the Cards instead decided to move on, non-tendering him in November.

For the Sox, they have plenty of questions on their pitching staff. Dylan Cease projects as the ace but many around the industry expect him to be traded. General manager Chris Getz recently said the club plans to stretch out Garrett Crochet, but he’s thrown just 73 major league innings over the past four years. Erick Fedde should have a role after a strong KBO season but his work in the majors was shaky prior to that. Michael Kopech and Touki Toussaint both have significant control issues. Michael Soroka didn’t fully bounceback in 2023 after a lengthy injury absence. Chris Flexen is coming off a really rough campaign.

In the bullpen, Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo López, Aaron Bummer, Keynan Middleton and Joe Kelly have all been traded in the past six months, and Crochet is another subtraction by virtue of moving into a starting role. In short, there should be plenty of innings available for Woodford if he’s able to put his 2023 season behind him and get back into good form. If he’s added onto the roster, he is out of options but could be retained beyond this season via arbitration.

White Sox Outright Zach Remillard

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The White Sox announced Wednesday that infielder Zach Remillard, whom they designated for assignment after signing catcher Martin Maldonado to a one-year deal, went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A. The 29-year-old (30 in February) will remain in the organization.

A tenth-round selection by the Sox back in 2016, Remillard made his big league debut last year after grinding through parts of eight minor league seasons. He appeared in 54 games and took 160 turns at the plate, batting .252/.295/.320 with a homer, seven doubles, four steals, a 5% walk rate and a 30% strikeout rate. He spent the vast majority of his time at second base and posted quality defensive grades there, though Remillard also received briefer looks at shortstop, third base and in both outfield corners.

That defensive versatility has been Remillard’s calling card throughout his minor league tenure. He carries a tepid .243/.339/.376 batting line in parts of three Triple-A seasons (1073 plate appearances), but he’s appeared at every position on the diamond other than catcher and pitcher in his eight-year professional career. Now that he’s passed through waivers, he’ll likely be in big league camp this spring and serve as a depth option for the White Sox. His experience at virtually every position on the diamond would make him a natural option for just about any injury or set of injuries the rebuilding White Sox could incur in 2024.

White Sox GM Discusses Rotation, Right Field

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White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters today and discussed some of the club’s plans for the rest of the offseason and the upcoming campaign, with Scott Merkin of MLB.com and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times among those to relay the information. Getz acknowledged that Dylan Cease has received plenty of interest from other clubs but said that the Sox won’t trade him unless they feel the deal makes the club better. Elsewhere in the rotation, he said that Garrett Crochet will come into the season preparing to be a starter and that Chris Flexen is expected to be a starter as well. In terms of the lineup, he said that they don’t have an established starting right fielder as of right now and are open to external additions.

Cease, 28, has posted excellent results over the past three years and has been incredibly popular on the trade market in recent months. Teams such as the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, Braves and Reds have all been connected to his market this winter. Some of those clubs have since pivoted to other moves but the rumors around the righty have continued to swirl, with many in the industry still expecting a trade before the start of the season. But from the point of view of the Sox, they don’t feel they have to make a deal. “We’ve had [trade] conversations about Dylan [Cease] but we’re not going to move someone unless there’s a benefit,” Getz said.

The righty is still under club control for two years, so the Sox don’t have to move him immediately if they don’t want to. But his trade value won’t get any higher at this point, making it sensible for them to take the best offer they can get at the moment. By the time the trade deadline rolls around, they will only be marketing a year and a half of his services and the number of suitors might dwindle if some interested clubs fall out of contention. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury sapping Cease of his trade value.

It was reported back in December that the Sox were being patient with the market, seeing if the interest in Cease picked up after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed and the clubs that missed on him pivoted. Yamamoto has now signed with the Dodgers, leaving Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as the top free agents available but Cease one of the top trade candidates. Pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Jesús Luzardo have also been in trade rumors but it’s unclear how open their respective clubs are to offers.

In the case of Cease, the Sox have reportedly been setting a high asking price, which is perhaps why no deal has been consummated as of yet. It was reported last month that the Sox asked the Reds for four of their top prospects, which seemed to put an end to the discussions. The Reds agreed to terms with free agent Frankie Montas on a deal about a week after that report. Whether the Sox will back down from that apparent lofty asking price, or some other club will bite the bullet and meet it, remains to be seen.

The high level of interest and the asking price are both reflections of his immense talent. Over the past three campaigns, he has taken the ball 97 times and produced an earned run average of 3.54 in that time, along with a 29.8% strikeout rate. FanGraphs considered him to be worth a combined 12.6 wins above replacement in those years, the eighth-best tally out of all big league pitchers. His ERA jumped to 4.58 ERA in 2023 but there seems to be little concern about that. His 27.3% strikeout rate was also a couple of ticks below the previous two seasons but he was also held back by his .330 batting average on balls in play and 69.4% strand rate, both of which are on the unlucky side. His 3.72 FIP and 4.10 SIERA suggest he was closer to his previous self than the ERA may indicate.

In addition to his skills, he’s also attractive due to his contractual situation. While frontline starters can secure nine-figure guarantees as free agents, Cease is still in his arbitration years. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM and will be due one more raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.

Whether the Sox eventually move Cease or not, they will have plenty of question marks in their rotation. Pitchers like Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, Michael Soroka and Touki Toussaint will be in the mix for jobs but there’s uncertainty with each one of them. Fedde is coming off a tremendous showing in the Korea Baseball Organization but struggled in his MLB career prior to that. Soroka was mediocre in 2023 after missing most of the previous three seasons due to injuries. Kopech and Toussaint have battled significant control problems in their respective careers.

It appears the club is keeping an open mind with their rotation mix, with Crochet set to be built up this year. The lefty has previously expressed an interest in return to a rotation gig and will apparently get some kind of shot in the months to come.

Now 24 years old, Crochet was drafted by the Sox in 2020 and was quickly launched to the majors, making his debut later that same year as a reliever. In 2021, he stuck with the big league bullpen and posted an ERA of 2.82 over 54 appearances. There was some consideration of stretching him out as a starter going into 2022 but he required Tommy John surgery that April and missed the entire campaign. He returned to the Sox last year as a reliever but missed three months of the season due to shoulder inflammation and eventually made just 13 appearances.

Due to his limited workload in recent years, it may not be possible to fully stretch him out in just one season, something Getz acknowledged. Due to the canceled minor leagues in 2020, the Tommy John layoff and then the shoulder troubles, the southpaw has thrown just 73 big league innings over the past four years, as well as another 12 1/3 on rehab assignments in 2023. That would make it difficult for him to suddenly jump to 200 or even 150 innings in 2024, but the club will nonetheless give him some runway to see how it plays out.

“He believes he can be a starter. We’ve seen him be a starter in the past. So we are going to go into spring prepared to stretch him out and we’ll make adjustments along the way if need be,” Getz said. “He hasn’t started in a couple years. So, it’s going to take a little bit of time to appropriately stretch him out. We are going in with the intention for him to be a starter in 2024.” Crochet is eligible for arbitration this winter and is currently slated for free agency after 2026.

Also in the rotation mix will be Flexen, with Getz saying they expect starter’s innings out of him. The righty has worked both as a starter and reliever in recent years, with a disastrous 2023 campaign but better results in the two prior seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 317 1/3 innings for the Mariners, with 53 of his 64 appearances coming as a starter. He had a 3.66 ERA in that time, only striking out 16.5% of batters but limiting walks and barrels.

But in 2023, he finished with a 6.86 ERA, splitting his time between the Mariners and Rockies. The Sox decided to overlook that rough showing and gave Flexen a $1.75MM guarantee on a big league deal. Though his performance will ultimately have a bearing on his role, the club appears to be planning on slotting him into the rotation mix.

Turning away from the rotation, Getz also said the club doesn’t have an established right fielder. He mentioned that they have internal options, including non-roster invitees, but that they are looking to make additions. That is a reflection of the poor debut season of Óscar Colás, who was a notable prospect coming into 2023 but struggled badly in his first 75 major league games. He batted .216/.257/.314 in his 263 plate appearances and also received poor grades for his defense. That led to tallies of -1.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and -1.5 from Baseball Reference. He still has two option years remaining, allowing the club to keep him in the minors if he doesn’t show signs of significant improvement.

The free agent market still features some notable outfield-capable guys, such as Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Joey Gallo, Whit Merrifield and Randal Grichuk. The trade market could theoretically feature guys such as Randy Arozarena and Max Kepler, though it would be a surprise if a retooling club like the White Sox gave up significant prospects in any deal.

In terms of the internal options who could be battling Colás, Gavin Sheets has had some good hitting results in the past but is coming off a rough season and is considered a poor defender. Brett Phillips was signed to a minor league deal and is a strong defender but weak at the plate. Wynton Bernard and Mark Payton have been signed to minor league deals as well but both of them have less than 70 major league plate appearances. Given those internal options, keeping an eye out for upgrades makes sense, whether that’s a free agent signing, a trade or even just a waiver claim.

White Sox To Hire Jin Wong As Assistant GM

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  • The White Sox are continuing to shuffle their front office after hiring Chris Getz as GM on the heels of the club’s midseason firing of Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last year. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the club is hiring longtime Royals executive Jin Wong as an assistant GM. Wong will handle many of the duties previously assigned to assistant GM Jeremy Haber going forward, as Nightengale adds that Haber is expected to depart the club’s front office before Spring Training begins next month. Wong spent 24 years as a member of the Royals organization after first joining the organization in the scouting department back in 2000. Over his time in Kansas City, Wong filled a variety of roles before eventually rising to the title of VP of baseball administration and assistant GM.

Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.

Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.

Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.

As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.

Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.

However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt’s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.

White Sox Sign Chad Kuhl To Minors Contract

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The White Sox signed Chad Kuhl to a minor league deal last week, as per the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  The contract presumably includes an invitation to Chicago’s big league Spring Training camp.

Kuhl posted an 8.45 ERA over 38 1/3 innings with the Nationals last season, consisting of five starts and 11 bullpen appearances.  Small sample size notwithstanding, Kuhl’s 15% walk rate and 16.6% strikeout rate were both the lowest of his seven-year MLB career, and batters continued to tee off on Kuhl’s sinker (one of his two primary pitches).  Kuhl broke camp with Washington after signing a minor league deal with the Nats last winter, though he was designated for assignment and subsequently released in June.

A toe sprain sent Kuhl to the injured list for a few weeks in May, but his 2023 performance might’ve been understandably impacted by some far more importantly real-world concerns.  Kuhl’s wife Amanda underwent chemotherapy treatments dealing with breast cancer, and Kuhl announced in July that had turned down other contract offers in order to spend the rest of the season with his family.  This deal with the White Sox is a positive sign that things are well on the health front for Amanda, and her recent X postings revealed that she finished treatments in November.

The 31-year-old Kuhl has a 4.98 ERA over 615 career innings, with much of that time spent with the Pirates before landing with the Rockies in 2022 and the Nationals last year.  Working mostly as a starter, he projects as a depth arm for the White Sox to evaluate this spring as the team considers its rotation options.

Dylan Cease continues to star in trade rumors, but for now, the righty continues to be ace of Chicago’s pitching staff.  Michael Kopech and new signing Erick Fedde have two other rotation spots covered, while Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Touki Toussaint, Chris Flexen, and Jesse Scholtens will join Kuhl in battling for a job (or possibly a swingman role) in one of the two remaining spots.  This isn’t the most inspiring group on paper, yet with the White Sox seemingly considering some level of rebuild, it seems possible the team is just looking for younger arms and candidates to eat innings in the event that Cease is dealt.

White Sox Sign Martin Maldonado

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JAN. 5: The Sox have officially announced the deal, announcing it as a $4.25MM pact with a club option for 2025. Per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, it”ll be a $4MM salary in 2024 with a $250K buyout on a $4MM option for 2025. Maldonado’s option vests with 90 appearances at catcher, per Robert Murray of FanSided.

DEC. 27: Maldonado will earn $4MM in 2024, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via X).  The 2025 option is a vesting option that, if triggered, would pay Maldonado another $4MM for a second season of the deal.

DEC. 26: The White Sox are in agreement with catcher Martín Maldonado on a one-year contract with an option for 2025, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (on X). Robert Murray of FanSided (X link) first reported the sides were near a deal. Financial terms for the MVP Sports Group client are still unreported.

Maldonado’s move to Chicago’s South Side officially ends a four-and-a-half-year run in Houston. It was clear the Astros were moving on from the 37-year-old when they inked Víctor Caratini to a two-year deal during the Winter Meetings. With Caratini on hand as an experienced option behind Yainer Diaz, Maldonado was left to look elsewhere.

A veteran of 13 big league campaigns, he’ll now join the sixth team of his MLB career. He reunites with former Houston teammate Korey Lee, whom the Astros traded to the Sox for reliever Kendall Graveman at this past summer’s deadline. The 25-year-old Lee hasn’t produced offensively in parts of two big league campaigns. He’s a highly-regarded defensive catcher, which is also Maldonado’s calling card.

Outside of the shortened 2020 campaign, Maldonado has never hit at an average level in the big leagues. He is one of the sport’s least impactful hitters overall. In more than 3700 career plate appearances, the right-handed batter owns a .207/.282/.349 line. He hasn’t approached the Mendoza line in three years, running a .183/.260/.333 slash going back to the start of 2021.

Among 226 hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over that stretch, only Joey Gallo has a lower batting average. Maldonado has the worst on-base mark of the group, while he’s fifth from the bottom in slugging. That the Astros nevertheless relied on him as their #1 catcher on some of the best rosters in MLB speaks to how highly the coaches and pitching staff felt about his presence behind the plate.

For most of his career, Maldonado has indeed rated as an excellent defensive catcher. That was not the case last season. Statcast graded him as the worst pitch framer among qualified backstops. He only threw out 14% of attempted basestealers, roughly six percentage points below the league mark. That’s perhaps more a reflection of the Houston pitching staff than Maldonado, as Statcast ranked him 23rd among 81 catchers (minimum 10 throws) in average pop time to second base.

In any case, the greater appeal for Chicago’s front office and coaching staff is in Maldonado’s game-calling ability and work with a pitching staff. The White Sox are likely to cycle through a number of inexperienced pitchers in 2024. Dylan Cease is the staff ace, though it’s no sure thing he won’t be traded before Opening Day.

KBO returnee Erick Fedde is a lock for the season-opening rotation, while Michael Kopech is likely to get a rebound opportunity. Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster — each of whom was acquired from the Braves in the Aaron Bummer trade — could vie for spots. Rule 5 pick Shane Drohan will have to remain on the MLB roster or be waived and subsequently offered back to the Red Sox, while prospects Cristian Mena and Jake Eder could reach the big leagues at some point.

Maldonado will work with that pitching group. He can serve as a short-term bridge to catching prospect Edgar Quero, the headliner of last summer’s Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo López deal. The 20-year-old spent all of last season at Double-A. He could reach the majors late in the ’24 season while taking over as the primary option in 2025.

In the interim, it’s possible the Maldonado signing displaces one of the organization’s other catchers. Once the contract is finalized, the White Sox will have four catchers on the 40-man roster. It’s unlikely Chicago will move from Lee, leaving Carlos Pérez and Max Stassi potentially on the bubble. Pérez didn’t hit well in the majors or Triple-A last season. The White Sox just acquired Stassi from the Braves a couple weeks ago, but they’re not on the hook for money beyond the league minimum salary and didn’t surrender much (a player to be named later) to bring him in.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Designate Zach Remillard For Assignment

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The White Sox officially announced their signing of catcher Martín Maldonado, which was reported last month. Utility player Zach Remillard has been designated for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

Chicago took Remillard in the tenth round of the 2016 draft out of Coastal Carolina. The right-handed hitting infielder played seven-plus seasons in the minors, including three years at the Triple-A level. The Sox selected his contract for the first time in the middle of June. Remillard appeared in 54 big league games, hitting .252/.295/.320 with one home run over his first 160 plate appearances.

Most of his defensive action came at second base, where he logged 260 2/3 innings. Remillard also played shortstop, third base and both corner outfield spots. That defensive flexibility has been his calling card throughout his minor league career. Remillard has played mostly shortstop and third base in the minors but has a fair bit of experience at the keystone and the outfield grass.

The White Sox have a week to trade Remillard or outright him to the minors. He doesn’t have three years of MLB service or a previous career outright, so he would not have the ability to elect free agency if he clears waivers.

Mets Showing Interest In Various Starting Pitchers

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The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.

The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.

That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff if strengthened.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.

If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.

As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.

He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.

For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.

Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.

Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.

Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22MM deal this winter.

As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85MM contract, but with recent reporting suggesting he has enough interest to push past $100MM. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer prone in the majors.

If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period end on January 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.

Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

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