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Looking At The Reds’ Rotation Beyond The Top Three

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If you follow the Reds, you likely know the offseason story by now. It started with Tucker Barnhart being traded as soon as the offseason began. That was followed by this ominous quote from general manager Nick Krall: “Going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” Shortly after that, Nick Castellanos opted out of his contract and entered free agency, and Wade Miley was claimed off waivers by the Cubs.

It’s possible that the departures of Castellanos and Miley mean that the alignment of payroll and resources is now done and that no further salary trimming is required. However, that didn’t stop the rumor mill from grinding up Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle throughout November, as numerous teams were reportedly interested in acquiring them.

Whether they end up finalizing a deal or not, there are still other rotation slots to consider. Castillo, Gray and Mahle have gotten most of the attention in recent months, but the club still needs to think about their fourth and fifth starters. No team gets through a full season with just five starters either, due to injuries and underperformance, meaning the club will need to think about depth as well.

Vladimir Gutierrez should be pencilled into one of the backend spots after making 22 starts in 2021. The righty logged 114 innings with an ERA of 4.74, but strikeout and walk rates of just 17.7% and 9.3%, both of which are worse than league average. There are some reasons for optimism, however, as he’s only 26 and had better results in Triple-A last year. It was only three starts and 17 innings, but his 2.65 ERA was accompanied by a 31.3% strikeout rate, although his 10.4% walk rate was still high.

2021 was an excellent year for Reiver Sanmartin, who started the year in Double-A, getting promoted after logging 18 innings with a 0.50 ERA. In Triple-A, he added another 82 1/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. The southpaw was called up to the big leagues as the season was winding down and made a pair of starts, throwing 11 2/3 innings with a 1.54 ERA. In the Dominican Winter League, he added another 31 innings with an ERA of 1.45. He’ll turn 26 in April.

Jeff Hoffman pitched in 31 games for the Reds in 2021, with 11 of those being starts. In those starts, he put up an ERA of 5.20, with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 14.2% walk rate. He was much better out of the ’pen, throwing 28 innings with an ERA of 3.54, 32.3% strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate. Unlike Gutierrez and Sanmartin, he’s out of options, meaning he’ll likely be on the big league team either way, but it seems like the bullpen might be a better home for the 29-year-old.

Tony Santillan made four starts for the Reds in 2021, along with 22 relief appearances. He was fine enough in those four starts, as evidenced by his 3.78 ERA. But like Hoffman, he was even better out of the ’pen, putting up an ERA of 2.36, with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. He has one option year remaining and is still young, turning 25 in April, meaning he could be used as Triple-A depth if he’s not needed on the big league club.

Riley O’Brien threw 112 2/3 Triple-A innings last year with an ERA of 4.55. His 24.7% strikeout rate is encouraging but his 11.2% walk rate concerning. He got called up to make one start for the Reds in September, but lasted only an inning and a third. He’ll turn 27 next week but still has options remaining.

Hunter Greene is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, landing in the top 35 on the Top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. He started 2021 in Double-A and dominated. Over seven starts and 41 innings, he had a 1.98 ERA, 37% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. After a promotion to Triple-A, he wasn’t quite as dominant but still quite effective. Over 14 starts and 65 1/3 innings, he had a 4.13 ERA, strikeout rate of 28.6% and walk rate of 9.1%. He just turned 22 in August and was added to the 40-man roster in November.

There’s another highly-touted prospect in Nick Lodolo, who also appears on the three aforementioned Top 100 lists. Like Greene, he dominated at Double-A last year, throwing 44 innings over ten starts with an ERA of 1.84, strikeout rate of 39.3% and walk rate of 5.2%. He got promoted to Triple-A and made three starts before a shoulder strain finished his season. He’ll turn 24 this week but isn’t yet on the 40-man.

Further depth options include Graham Ashcraft, who finished 2021 at Double-A, and minor league signees Connor Overton and Ben Lively. Despite that crop of intriguing options, none of them should be considered locks for 2022. Gutierrez and Hoffman are the only ones with more than 45 MLB innings under their belts, and they both come with concerns.

In a vacuum, a team with a rotation consisting of three strong starters and two question marks should be adding and not subtracting, especially if they have designs on competing. The club was connected to Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Dodgers, meaning they have at least considered supplementing this group. However, it’s possible that move would have been combined with one of the oft-rumored trade scenarios of Gray, Castillo or Mahle.

Although the market for free agent starting pitching was largely picked over prior to the lockout, there are still some decent veteran options available, such as Michael Pineda, Tyler Anderson, Drew Smyly and Brett Anderson. A signing of that nature could theoretically add some stability to this highly volatile group without breaking the bank.

The Reds front office seems to be between a rock and a hard place here, as they can’t reasonably consider tearing down the roster at this point. After six straight losing season from 2014 to 2019, which included four straight seasons in the NL Central basement, they’ve recently opened a competitive window. But after two seasons of nudging just beyond the .500 mark, they can’t ask their fans to hold their noses and start the process all over again. However, they don’t seem to have been given the resources necessary to make an impact signing, which might force them to get creative about how they build their rotation for 2022. With that impressive depth, they should be able to navigate it to some degree. But that depth could either be Plan A or Plan B, depending on whether they add or subtract after the lockout is over.

Should The Reds Trade Any Of Their High-End Starters?

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It wasn’t an encouraging start to the winter for Reds fans. After trading Tucker Barnhart and waiving Wade Miley in moves that amounted to little more than salary dumps, general manager Nick Krall famously spoke of “aligning … payroll to our resources.” That hinted at a lack of forthcoming additions, and indeed, the Reds have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason.

That said, the Reds haven’t yet orchestrated a sell-off. Barnhart’s a well-respected veteran backstop, but Tyler Stephenson is ready to assume an everyday role. It’s harder to defend cutting Miley, controllable via $10MM club option and coming off a 163-inning, 3.37 ERA season. Yet the soft-tossing Miley is always walking a fine line relying on weak, ground-ball contact. If his run prevention regresses closer to last season’s 4.52 SIERA, that option price would be more reasonable than an immense bargain.

Krall predictably didn’t offer specifics about the franchise’s payroll target for 2022. Currently, they’re projected for $115MM in player expenditures, including estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That’s a touch shy of last year’s season-opening $122MM mark (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Perhaps the Reds have already “aligned” their payroll by parting with Barnhart and Miley and letting Nick Castellanos hit free agency.

If the Reds were either looking to cut costs or add some young talent to the organization, the most straightforward way to do so would be by further subtracting from the rotation. Cincinnati’s top three starters — Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray — are all under club control through 2023 (assuming free agency trajectory isn’t affected by the new collective bargaining agreement). And unlike some other Reds with notable salaries (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez) whom the Reds might want to trade, the rotation members should be in high demand around the league.

Luis Castillo

Castillo, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, tossed 187 2/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA last year. That was his highest mark in three years, but the 29-year-old found his footing after a tough start. He posted a 2.73 ERA from June onwards, with his generally excellent combination of strikeouts (26%) and grounders (59.9%).

Simply ignoring the first two months of the season, when Castillo had an awful 7.22 ERA and subpar 19.3% strikeout percentage, is obviously simplistic. Yet the right-hander’s three-year track record is excellent, and he possesses a fantastic arsenal. Owner of one of baseball’s best changeups and a fastball that averages north of 97 MPH, Castillo seems the most likely of the Reds starters to offer top-of-the-rotation production over the next two years. He’s been the subject of trade rumors in each of the last two offseasons, but reports about the team’s willingness to make him available have varied.

Tyler Mahle

As with Castillo, it’s not clear how willing the Reds seem to be to trade Mahle. He hasn’t been the subject of as many rumors as his top rotation mates this winter. Yet there’d be plenty of appeal if Cincinnati were amenable to moving him. At 27, he’s the youngest of the Reds top trio of starters. Projected for a $5.6MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration year, he’s likely to be the most affordable. And one could make the case he’s coming off the best 2021 campaign of the three.

Mahle’s 3.75 ERA was lower than either of Castillo’s or Gray’s marks. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk percentage bettered the others’ respective figures. He’s not the elite ground-ball guy those others are, but Mahle looks to have made the leap to quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons.

Mahle misses bats with both his mid-90s heater and his two secondary pitches — a cutter-slider and a split. The development of the latter offering has proven especially useful in helping the right-hander overcome platoon troubles, as he leans somewhat frequently on the split when facing left-handed batters. After giving up a massive .290/.384/.547 line when at a platoon disadvantage through his first three MLB seasons, he’s held southpaws to a pitiful .194/.280/.306 mark since the start of 2020.

Sonny Gray

Gray is playing out the 2022 campaign on a $10.667MM contract, and he’s controllable for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. That makes him the costliest of the Reds starters, yet it’s still an obvious bargain for a pitcher who has been as effective as Gray has since landing in Cincinnati.

The right-hander has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks in all three of his seasons with the Reds. Gray may not have quite as pristine of control as Castillo or Mahle possess, but his walk rates aren’t all that concerning. Last year’s 4.19 ERA is more fine than great, but he posted respective 2.87 and 3.70 marks over the two prior seasons. And the 32-year-old Gray was among the sport’s best pitchers at suppressing hard contact, with the Reds mediocre team defense perhaps explaining a bit of a gap between his actual ERA and estimators like FIP, SIERA and xERA — all of which pegged his performance between 3.25 and 3.99.

On the surface, Gray looks like the pitcher the Reds might be most willing to make available. Trading him would knock more money off the books than would a Castillo or Mahle deal, perhaps freeing some room for the front office to address needs in the outfield and/or bullpen. Yet Castillo or Mahle would probably pull stronger returns if they were moved. Trading Gray alone be something of a half-measure: not enough to bring in an influx of impact young talent, while further weakening a roster that finished marginally above .500 last season and has lost or is likely to lose both Miley and Castellanos.

Krall and his staff seem to be in a difficult spot, overseeing a roster that looks a bit shy of contention but without the financial backing to fix its most glaring deficiencies. How they choose to proceed with their trio of high-end starters is yet to be determined, but there’s a compelling argument to move any of the group, as well as a sound case for keeping the entire rotation intact. After all, with two years of control apiece, they should each still be in demand (barring injury) if the team is sputtering by next summer’s trade deadline.

We’ll let MLBTR readers weigh in on the situation. How should the Reds proceed coming out of the lockout?

(poll link for app users)

How Should The Reds Handle Their Rotation?
Keep all three pitchers. 29.76% (1,873 votes)
Only trade Gray; keep Castillo and Mahle. 25.46% (1,602 votes)
Trade all three pitchers. 19.39% (1,220 votes)
Trade Gray and Castillo. 11.14% (701 votes)
Only trade Castillo; keep Gray and Mahle. 6.05% (381 votes)
Trade Gray and Mahle. 4.21% (265 votes)
Only trade Mahle; keep Castillo and Gray. 2.42% (152 votes)
Trade Castillo and Mahle. 1.57% (99 votes)
Total Votes: 6,293

 

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/11/22

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The latest minor league moves from around the sport…

  • The Reds announced that infielder Juniel Querecuto has been signed to a minor league deal, and invited to the team’s big league Spring Training camp.  A veteran of 10 pro seasons, Querecuto reached the majors for a four-game cup of coffee with the Rays in 2016.  After six seasons in Tampa’s organization, Querecuto moved onto the Giants’ Triple-A team in 2017 before joining the Diamondbacks for four years.  Beginning his career as a utility infielder, Querecuto has branched out to more of a super-utility type, getting action as a first baseman and at all three outfield positions since 2019, though the majority of his time has still been spent as a shortstop, second baseman, and third baseman.  Known more for his defensive versatility than his bat throughout his career, the 29-year-old Querecuto did hit .301/.354/.489 with 13 homers over 396 PA with Triple-A Reno last season.

Jeff Pickler Withdraws Name From Consideration For Mets’ Bench Coach

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Jeff Pickler has removed his name from consideration for the Mets’ bench coach position, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The Reds’ planning and outfield coach will stay with Cincinnati for 2022.

Pickler had recently been identified as one of the candidates for the position, as the Mets have been actively filling out their coaching staff in recent days. The Mets are behind most other teams in putting their coaching staff together, as they also had to make a front office hire that occupied the early part of their offseason. They eventually hired Billy Eppler as general manager in mid-November, but he had to focus on free agency with the ticking clock of the looming lockout.

Once the lockout was implemented in December and big league transactions were frozen, the club shifted their attention towards the coaching staff, with the majority of the crew from 2021 not being retained. Buck Showalter was the first piece of the puzzle, being hired as manager on December 20th. After a lull in activity around the holidays, the Mets have reportedly added first base coach Wayne Kirby, third base coach Joey Cora and hitting coach Eric Chavez in recent days.

The bench coach position remains an ongoing matter, with today’s news focused on who won’t be taking the position. Earlier today, it was reported that the Padres denied the Mets the opportunity to interview quality control coach Ryan Flaherty for the position, which would have seen him reunite with Showalter, his manager from his playing days in Baltimore.

Pickler was selected by the Brewers in the 11th round of the 1998 draft. He spent eight years in the minors for the Brewers, Rangers and Rockies before transitioning to scouting. After stints as a scout with the Diamondbacks and Padres, he joined the Dodgers in 2014 as special assistant in professional scouting and player development. The Twins hired him as a coach for 2017, with Pickler joining the Reds two years later.

It was recently reported that the Mets had a “headline-grabbing hire” lined up for their bench coach job, but that turned out to be the aforementioned Chavez, who actually settled on the hitting coach position.

Reds Had Interest In Andrew Heaney

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This offseason has largely been about subtraction for the Reds so far, with Tucker Barnhart getting traded to the Tigers, Wade Miley going to the Cubs on waivers and Michael Lorenzen joining the Angels via free agency. Nick Castellanos also opted out of the remainder of his contract and, though he remains a free agent, seems unlikely to re-sign in Cincinnati. There have also been numerous rumors swirling about teams around the league trying to pry Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray away, as the club is apparently looking to “align our payroll to our resources“, as general manager Nick Krall phrased it.

However, there was at least one addition that the club considered prior to the lockout, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that they were interested in Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Dodgers. Whether the club actively pursued Heaney isn’t known, but the interest is noteworthy, especially given the fact that they haven’t signed a free agent to a major league deal yet this offseason.

Heaney took the final spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a prediction for a one-year, $6MM deal. It’s possible that Cincinnati’s interest was in that range, as he ultimately landed with the Dodgers for slightly more, a one-year deal worth $8.5MM. With Gray set to make almost $11MM in 2022 and Castillo likely getting close to $8MM in arbitration, perhaps they viewed Heaney as a low-cost way of supplementing the rotation after losing Miley and maybe another starter.

After six straight losing seasons from 2014 to 2019, the Reds emerged from their recent rebuilding effort in 2020, going 31-29 and qualifying for the expanded postseason. 2021 was another winning effort, as the club went 83-79, but that wasn’t enough to qualifying for the postseason. Despite that progress, the front office seems to be stuck in an awkward position where they don’t want to start another rebuild so quickly but don’t have the ability to make a significant addition to the payroll.

Exactly how they plan to walk this fine line isn’t yet known, but Heaney would have been a low-cost, high-reward gamble for them. He has long tantalized teams with excellent strikeout and walk numbers, but disappointing results largely caused by the long ball. In 2021, for instance, he gave up 29 home runs and had an ERA of 5.83, but a strikeout rate of 26.9% and walk rate of 7.3%, both of those being better than league average. Given their apparently limited resources, it makes sense for the Reds to be drawn to such a gamble. However, their home field of Great American Ball Park is considered to be quite hitter-friendly, especially when it comes to home runs. It would have been challenging for Heaney to finally reach his full potential in that environment. But given their financial situation, perhaps those are the types of gambles the club will be trying to make after the lockout.

Coaching/Organzational Notes: Beltran, Mets, Chavez, Manno

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When the Padres were putting together their new coaching staff this winter, the club had some talks with Carlos Beltran about a possible job, The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reports.  “The talks never advanced to anything serious,” either on the coaching front, or towards Beltran’s preference for an advisory position within the front office (similar to the role Beltran held with the Yankees in 2019).  Beltran has yet to work in any official baseball capacity since the Mets abruptly fired him as manager in January 2020, following the revelations of Beltran’s involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

San Diego is the first team known to explore hiring Beltran for any position, which does perhaps present a bit of a icebreaker towards his possible return with some team, though Davidoff opines that it doesn’t seem Beltran has interest in coaching.  That could be an obstacle if Beltran eventually wants to get back into managing, considering that Beltran has still never officially managed or coached at any level of pro ball; the Mets fired him before he ever led the dugout for a single game.  It remains to be seen exactly what Beltran’s next step might be, as Davidoff notes that the longtime star outfielder has moved his family back to Puerto Rico, and Beltran has the financial security “to be selective in his return — or to simply never return” if he so chooses.

More notes from the coaching and organizational ranks…

  • Earlier this week, Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News reported that the Mets were lining up “an exciting, headline-grabbing hire” as their next bench coach.  In her latest update, Thosar reports that Eric Chavez was that planned major name, as the Mets talked with the longtime A’s star about the bench coaching role before eventually settling on Chavez as the team’s new hitting coach.  As one might expect, hiring Chavez involved “a tricky negotiation process with the Yankees,” considering the Yankees only just hired Chavez as their assistant hitting coach in December.
  • In regards to the bench coach role, the Mets are now aiming towards hiring “a younger, analytics-driven individual,” Thosar reports.  It will make for an interesting complement to veteran manager Buck Showalter, providing something of an old school/new school approach between Showalter and his next chief lieutenant.  Reds game planning/outfield coach Jeff Pickler is one of the names under consideration for the Mets’ bench coach job, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).
  • Reds scout Bruce Manno is retiring after close to 45 years in pro baseball, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Manno has been a familiar face in many front offices over the years, working with the Blue Jays, Brewers, Orioles, Cardinals, Braves, and Reds in various capacities, including working as the Cards’ director of player development during the club’s 2006 World Series season.  Manno worked as an assistant GM with both the Brewers (1987-94) and Braves (2007-14), and his time in Atlanta helped pave the way towards their 2021 title.  Freddie Freeman was drafted, developed, and extended during Manno’s tenure, and Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies joined the organization on their initial amateur contracts.  (Manno discussed the Acuna/Albies deals with David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution back in 2018, with Manno praising the work of then-director of international scouting Johnny Almarez).  We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Manno on a fine career, and we wish him the best in his retirement.

NL Notes: Knebel, Phillies, Mets Coaches, Reds

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In a piece for the The Athletic, Matt Gelb recaps the frantic lead-up to the Phillies’ signing of right-handed reliever Corey Knebel, which included an unfortunately timed trip to Mexico and a number of insightful quotes from Knebel himself. One particular quote of note is that Knebel and Philadelphia “entertained” a two-year contract before ultimately settling on a one-year, $10MM guarantee.

While Knebel is the presumptive closer for his new club at this time, neither he nor president Dave Dombrowski have confirmed as such. Accordingly, Knebel says he’s using the personal risk of a one-year contract as motivation to regain the form that made him one of the game’s most dominant arms from 2017-2018. As the “$10MM” portion of his latest contract indicates, however, Knebel may not need much more motivation to regain elite status at the back of a pen. After all, a newfound reliance on his curveball led to the right-hander spinning 25 plus innings of 2.45 ERA ball with the Dodgers last season.

While health and its corresponding impact on effectiveness is always a question with pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery, the Phillies front office was surely pleased by Knebel demonstrating some of the best control he’s had in his career. Further dampening health concerns were Knebel’s strikeout abilities, which were down during the season from his own lofty 2017-2018 heights, but were still solidly above average and exploded in the playoffs— in 5+ innings the right-hander struck out 11 batters against just one walk.

In other news out of the National League…

  • The Mets have been one of baseball’s busiest teams during the lockout thus far, and have been the runaway winner in activity over the past 48 hours. The team already reeled in its biggest coaching fish of the offseason back in December when they hired Buck Showalter, but they have since announced plans to hire a number of other coaches around him. Among the recent coaches set to join the Mets coaching staff are first base coach Wayne Kirby, third base coach Joey Cora, and hitting coach Eric Chávez, who was successfully wooed away from the crosstown Yankees. Mike Puma of the New York Post explains (via Twitter) the reason none of these coaching additions have yet been made official. Puma states that every prospective hire is receiving a “very thorough” background check, which is likely delaying an official announcement from the club on this trio of reported coaches. It remains to be seen if this thoroughness is delaying the hire of the team’s alleged high-profile mystery bench coach as well. That the club is being methodical in its search for new club personnel should register as a shock to no one, with several high-profile members enjoying unceremonious ends to their New York tenures in recent years.
  • Bob Nightengale reports that the Reds have signed center fielder Lorenzo Cedrola to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. A signee out of Venezuela with some prospect pedigree, Cedrola was traded by Boston to Cincinnati back in 2018 for international bonus pool space. The 23-year-old will now look to continue his work in the Reds farm system, where he’s fresh off his first Triple-A promotion and an overall .315/.354/.458 season. His 10 home runs across 115 games last season easily represent a career high, though Cedrola’s 10 for 18 showing on the basepaths could use some work if he’s to crack the Reds’ uncertain outfield mix in 2022.

Coaching Notes: Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Reds, Rangers

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  • The Mets were considering Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough for bench coach after he impressed in his managerial interview with New York, but a hiring doesn’t seem likely to come to fruition. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that New York brass doesn’t believe McCullough would leave Los Angeles for a coaching position elsewhere. Instead, it seems he’s lined up to return for a second season on Dave Roberts’ staff. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reported yesterday that the Mets were looking into a potential “headline-grabbing hire” for bench coach.
  • The Mets already made a notable coaching move this morning, tabbing longtime big league third baseman Eric Chávez as hitting coach. Chávez had accepted a position as one of two Yankees assistant hitting coaches just a few weeks ago, leaving the Bronx club with an unanticipated vacancy on staff. Lindsey Adler of the Athletic reports (on Twitter) that the Yankees do plan to replace Chávez this offseason. That aligns with general manager Brian Cashman’s stated wish to enter the season with three hitting instructors on staff. Dillon Lawson is slated to be the team’s lead hitting coach, with Casey Dykes lined up for an assistant role.
  • Though the club has confirmed that Ray Montgomery will make the unusual transition from front office to bench coach on Joe Maddon’s staff, the Angels have not yet announced assignments for either former bench coach Mike Gallego (who will remain on the staff) or newcomers Phil Nevin, Benji Gil, and Bill Haselman (per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). This may be due to the club’s pursuit of Adam Eaton for its staff should he choose to retire — which, given that he remains an active member of the MLBPA, cannot be completed during the lockout.
  • The Mets announced their full slate of minor league coaches Thursday, including new managers at all four affiliates: former Cubs farmhand Kevin Boles at Triple-A Syracuse; journeyman infielder Reid Brignac at Double-A Binghamton; former Expos, Red Sox, and (briefly) Mets shortstop Luis Rivera at High-A Brooklyn; and former Mets catching instructor Robbie Robinson at Low-A St. Lucie. A full list of Mets minor league coaches, compiled by SNY contributor Jacob Resnick, can be found here.
  • The Reds have hired sixteen-year big-league veteran Juan Samuel as a minor league hitting instructor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, though his precise role has not yet been announced. Since retiring, the three-time All-Star has held a number of positions, including as a major league base coach and, briefly, as interim manager of the Orioles following the 2010 mid-season firing of Dave Trembley. In addition to his long and productive playing career, Samuel is remembered as the Mets’ return in the 1989 deal that sent Lenny Dykstra and Roger McDowell, cornerstones of the 1986 World Series champs, to the Phillies.
  • The Rangers announced two members of their 2022 big-league coaching staff, including the promotion of former journeyman catcher, advanced scout, and so-called “coordinator of run prevention” Brett Hayes to bullpen coach and the hiring of former Jays farmhand and Dodgers minor league hitting instructor Seth Conner as assistant hitting coach. Both will join Chris Woodward’s staff for a season the Rangers hope will represent a major step forward in the rebuilding process following the club’s recent big-ticket signings of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray.

Reds Sign Ben Lively To Minors Deal

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The Reds have signed right-hander Ben Lively to a minor league deal. Lively, who’s seen action in parts of three big-league seasons, returns to the organization that drafted him out of UCF in the fourth round of the 2013 draft before shipping him to the Phillies in exchange for Marlon Byrd following the 2014 season. The deal includes an invitation to spring training.

In limited big-league action with the Phillies and Royals, Lively has posted serviceable numbers, covering 120 innings  across 26 appearances (20 starts) with a 4.80 ERA (5.03 FIP). The great majority of those innings came with the Phillies in 2017, when he posted a 4.26 ERA (4.97 FIP) across 15 starts (88 2/3 IP) — good for an almost exactly league-average ERA+ of 101.

Two months after a June 2019 trade to the Diamondbacks 2019 season (for whom he never appeared in a big-league game), Lively crossed the Pacific to pitch for the KBO’s Samsung Lions, for whom he also posted solid-if-unspectacular numbers. In parts of three seasons in South Korea, the righty recorded a 4.14 ERA in 202 1/3 innings across 36 starts before a shoulder injury cut his 2021 season short.

Though only one of what’s likely to be a slew of low-cost arms given a shot to earn a spot on the Reds pitching staff, Lively may well arrive in Arizona with a real chance to crack the Opening Day roster in Cincinnati. Though the club has a strong top-of-the-rotation trio of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle in place at present, GM Nick Krall was reported to have been willing to engage in trade talks on all three ahead of the lockout. It’s unclear which, or how many, of the three will ultimately leave the Queen City, but the club has made no secret of its desire to cut payroll, suggesting that at least one will likely end up on the move.

Still, even in the unlikely event that all three stay in Cincy, there’s likely to be some significant spring competition at the back end of the Reds rotation. Vladimir Gutierrez, who had a solid 22-start debut for the Reds in 2021, likely has the inside track on one job, but the other would likely be open to Lively, fellow minor-league signee Brandon Bailey, and prospects Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Reiver Sanmartin.

Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K

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A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.

A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.

That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.

Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41

A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.

Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.

In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.

Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16

Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.

Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10

A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.

Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03

Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.

Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00

Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.

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