The Reds have committed to a key member of their rotation. Cincinnati announced Tuesday evening they’ve signed Hunter Greene to a six-year deal covering the 2023-28 seasons and containing a club option for 2029. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee, including a $2MM buyout on a $21MM option for the ’29 season. The deal also contains various escalators and awards bonuses that could push the total earnings to $96.2MM. Greene is a CAA client.
The salary structure breaks down as follows:
- $2MM signing bonus
- $1MM salary in 2023
- $3MM in 2024
- $6MM in 2025
- $8MM in 2026
- $15MM in 2027
- $16MM in 2028
- $21MM club option with $2MM buyout in 2029
Greene entered this season with exactly one year of major league service after breaking camp with the team last season. The deal buys out his final two pre-arbitration seasons, all three arbitration years and at least one free agent year with an option for a second.
The 23-year-old righty was selected by the Reds with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. Though he was drafted as a two-way player, he dropped the offensive portion of his game while in the minors and has been entirely focused on pitching. He required Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2019 but that did little to diminish his tremendous prospect stock. He still had his trademark triple-digit heater and wipeout slider when he returned. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 but Greene fared well in his return to competitive ball the year after. He posted a 3.30 ERA in 106 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 31.7% of batters faced while walking 8.9%.
He was selected to the club’s 40-man roster after that season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but it wasn’t clear if the club would carry him on their Opening Day roster. In the end, Greene did indeed make the club out of camp, sticking with them all year long apart from an August injured list stint and subsequent rehab assignment. He made 24 starts in the big leagues, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.44 ERA. He struck out 30.9% of batters faced, walked 9% of opponents, and got grounders at a 29.3% clip. It wasn’t a completely dominant showing, but it was a solid debut for a 22-year-old getting his first taste of the big leagues.
Greene is off to a similar beginning to the season in 2023. Through four starts and 17 innings, he owns a 4.24 ERA. He’s punched out just under 31% of opponents while generating swinging strikes on a strong 13.5% of his offerings. It’s little surprise Greene has missed plenty of bats with a fastball that averages north of 99 MPH. Home runs were his main concern last year, as his modest ground ball numbers translated into a lofty 1.72 homers allowed per nine innings. To his credit, Greene has allowed just one longball thus far in 2023.
If he can consistently keep the ball in the yard, it’s not hard to envision him sticking at the top of a rotation. Few young pitchers can match Greene’s raw arm strength and he’s long shown solid control for a young flamethrower. Greene has handled left and right-handed batters in his brief big league time as well. Between him and fellow top ten pick Nick Lodolo (plus mid-rotation grounder specialist Graham Ashcraft), the Reds have the nucleus of an excellent rotation they hope to lead them out of their ongoing rebuild.
Greene had been on a trajectory to reach arbitration for the first time after 2024 and reach free agency after 2027. The Reds tack on two years of club control while leaving him an opportunity to hit the open market at a relatively young age. Greene would be on track to hit free agency headed into his age-30 season if the Reds exercise their option. He locks in strong earnings to safeguard against injury or performance risk while retaining the possibility of a significant free agent deal down the line.
The $53MM guarantee is the second-largest for a pitcher with between one and two years of big league service. Spencer Strider set the record last October with a six-year, $75MM deal. Greene falls short of that mark but didn’t have the kind of rookie season the Atlanta hurler put together in 2022, when he worked to a 2.67 ERA with an eye-popping 38.3% strikeout percentage in 131 2/3 innings. Greene’s deal easily checks in second in the service group, with Madison Bumgarner’s decade-old $35MM extension representing the record mark until Strider put pen to paper.
Cincinnati didn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract beyond this season. Option buyouts for the likes of Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers and Curt Casali represented the Reds’ only commitments. There’s plenty of breathing room and obvious motivation for the Reds to start committing to core players. Speculatively speaking, players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India could be next on the front office’s list of extension targets.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Reds and Greene had agreed to a six-year, $53MM extension and reported the option value. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the contract could max out at $96.2MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the salary and escalator specifics.
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