Josh Bell’s Turnaround Started Before His Trade To Marlins
The deadline swap that saw the Marlins and Guardians exchange Jean Segura and Josh Bell was generally viewed as an exchange of bad contracts. The Marlins were getting the more productive hitter of the two, though that wasn’t saying much. Bell hit .233/.318/.383 as a member of the Guardians after signing a two-year, $33MM deal in the offseason. Segura hit just .219/.277/.279 with Miami after signing his own two-year deal (worth $17MM) and was immediately released by Cleveland. The Guards used the trade to effectively purchase former first-round pick Kahlil Watson from Miami, who sold low on the former top prospect and took on some cash as a means of adding some life to the lineup.
Bell has absolutely exploded in South Florida, however. He turned in below-average offense during his time with Cleveland but has mashed at a .271/.351/.586 pace in a still-small sample of 97 Marlins plate appearances. The eight dingers he’s swatted with the Marlins is already nearly as many as the 11 he totaled in more than quadruple the plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s not as though Bell simply moved to a bandbox either; Miami’s loanDepot Park has been the fourth-worst for home runs over the past three seasons, per Statcast.
The switch-hitting Bell looked wholly unremarkable in more than three months with the Guardians but has not only been one of the National League’s best hitters since the trade — he’s had one of the best months of his entire career. So, what gives? This is perhaps an oversimplification, but the Marlins have succeeded where basically no other club has to date: Bell is finally hitting the ball in the air. A lot. The 45.2% fly-ball rate he’s posted this month is the first month in his entire career that he’s posted a fly-ball rate that high.
The change, however, began well before Bell was traded to Miami. Whether the Marlins keyed in on this or merely jumped at the opportunity to purge Segura’s contract isn’t clear, but the numbers are pretty easy to see. Bell entered the current season with a 50% ground-ball rate in his career and just a 31.9% fly-ball rate — a ridiculous number for a 6’4″, 261-pound first baseman. Bell has never had good speed, and the idea that half of his career batted balls have been beaten into the ground is counterintuitive. He’s far from the only should-be slugger with this type of problem — Eric Hosmer is also a member of this club, for instance — but Bell’s penchant for grounders has regularly undercut his well above-average bat-to-ball skills and what’s clearly above-average or even plus raw power. This is a player who bashed 37 home runs in 2019, after all. Juiced ball or not — that’s a big number.
A look at Bell’s month-to-month splits this year reveals some familiar trends. In April he put a ridiculous 62.3% of his batted balls on the ground, against a 28.6% fly-ball rate. In May, it was 51.6% and 26.6% (with a noted uptick in line drives). If you look in late May, Bell had a stretch of five games where he didn’t hit a single fly-ball. He hit three line drives, and the other 81.8% of his balls in play were grounders. Whether this was a wakeup call or the beginning of Bell trying to make a conscious adjustment, things began to change.
In June, Bell’s fly-ball rate jumped to 37%. In July, it climbed a notch higher, to 38.4%. It’s up to 45.2% in August, and Bell is absolutely mashing. Those might sound like arbitrary numbers, and to some extent they are. However, using that arbitrary 37% cutoff point (his June 2023 fly-ball rate), I scanned back through Bell’s monthly splits for his entire career. He’s only had a monthly fly-ball rate of 37% four times in his career … all coming in 2019, when he hit 37 home runs and posted his career-best .277/.367/.569 batting line.
The results weren’t necessarily there as Bell began elevating the ball more regularly. From May 28 (the first day after that stretch of five games with no fly balls), Bell hit .251/.309/.440. That’s only about seven percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+, but it’s a massive improvement over the .215/.327/.326 slash he produced while pounding an incredible (not in a good way) 59.7% of his batted balls into the ground. At the very least, Bell looked like a hitter on the upswing due to a tangible change in his approach. The Marlins might’ve hoped they were acquiring that somewhat above-average hitter, but Bell has been much, much more than that in Miami. He’s been 50% better than the league-average hitter since being traded.
Of course, it’s an open question whether Bell can sustain this pace. He had four months of fly-ball production in 2019 and then quickly reverted back to the grounder-happy plodder who has often looked on the cusp of stardom but never sustained his pace. It’s encouraging, however, that he’s reeled off three straight months of this fly-ball approach. Even in his career year in 2019, he still posted a 46% grounder rate from July through August. This year, in that same span, he’s at 39.7%. This current stretch is the least grounder-driven span of Bell’s career.
Bell spoke to Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald about his surge at the plate in Miami, attributing plenty of the success to the manner in which hitting coach Brant Brown preps for games with hitters.
“We watch video together and decide there how the attack plan is going to go and I can work on that in batting practice and it tends to show up in the games,” said Bell, who called Brown’s prep work with Marlins hitters “advanced.” Bell also spoke favorably of loanDepot Park, noting that while the dimensions are pitcher-friendly, the consistency from playing in a stadium with a roof can be advantageous. “With the turf, and with the consistency of the dome, you’ve got the same lighting every inning, every at-bat, and it’s easy to get hits.”
Bell noted to the Herald that his focus has been simply on hitting line drives, but it seems those efforts have translated more into fly balls than the intended liners. His 12.9% line-drive rate with the Fish is actually lower than it was in Cleveland (19%) by a wide margin. Bell is simply elevating the ball at a strong, albeit not elite rate. His 45.2% fly rate since the trade ranks 35th of 173 hitters (80th percentile). But Bell is a big man with plenty of power; when he elevates the ball, good things happen.
Bell’s surge has been a boon for the Marlins and also creates a fascinating scenario to watch down the stretch. If he can continue putting the ball in the air close to this frequently and continue to produce at well above-average levels, the player option he once looked like a lock to exercise could become a borderline call — or, with a strong enough finish, a relatively easy one to decline. The upcoming free agent class is light on hitters, and Bell is flat out raking thanks to a noticeable change in his batted-ball profile. This version of Bell would fetch far more than $16.5MM in free agency, particularly since he can’t be saddled with a qualifying offer and thus won’t be tied to draft pick compensation.
If Bell does decline his player option, it’d wind up looking like a rather deft swap of contracts for the Marlins; at the time of the swap, Miami was effectively surrendering Watson and paying about $9.25MM ($3.25MM in ’23, $6MM in ’24) to upgrade from Segura to Bell. That sum would drop to just $3.25MM in added salary if Bell opts out — all of it coming in 2023 — and a hefty $10.5MM of savings beyond the current season. The Marlins would be off the hook entirely next year, while the Guards would remain on the hook for Segura’s $8.5MM salary and $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2025. It’s doubtful even Marlins GM Kim Ng and her staff expected Bell to perform this well early on, but their ostensible bet on Bell’s change in approach is already a boost to the team’s playoff hopes and now has the possibility to provide substantial payroll benefit in the future.
Guardians Designate Daniel Norris For Assignment
The Guardians designated reliever Daniel Norris for assignment this afternoon, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. The move created an active roster spot for the recall of Hunter Gaddis from Triple-A. Cleveland’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.
Norris spent a day on the MLB roster this time around. Cleveland selected his contract yesterday, his third separate stint of the season. Norris was pressed into long relief when the Twins knocked Xzavion Curry from the game early. The southpaw pitched two innings, allowing four runs on a pair of homers.
The 30-year-old has allowed 11 runs (eight earned) in 12 2/3 innings with Cleveland. He has a 5.60 ERA in 53 Triple-A frames on the season. It seems likely Norris will again clear waivers and could explore free agency, as he did a couple weeks ago before re-signing with the Guards on a new minor league pact.
Guardians Select Daniel Norris
The Guardians selected veteran left-hander Daniel Norris onto the major league roster before tonight’s contest with the Twins. He takes the vacated active and 40-man roster spots after yesterday’s designation of Noah Syndergaard.
Norris has been on and off the Cleveland roster three times. The Guardians had outrighted him a couple weeks ago, but he quickly returned on a minor league pact. Over his trio of stints, he’s logged 10 2/3 innings of seven-run ball. Norris has walked 11 with 10 strikeouts in that limited MLB look. He has started 12 of 18 outings at Triple-A Columbus, posting a 5.60 ERA. He’s striking out just under 20% of opponents against a lofty 10.8% walk rate at the top minor league level.
The 30-year-old offers a multi-inning relief option for skipper Terry Francona and already entered tonight’s ballgame after Xzavion Curry was knocked out by the third inning. Even if he sticks on the MLB roster through season’s end, he’ll be a free agent next winter.
Pat Corrales Passes Away
Former big league player, manager and coach Pat Corrales has passed away, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Corrales was 82 years old.
Born in Los Angeles in 1941, Patrick Corrales attended Fresno High School before signing with the Phillies as an amateur free agent in 1959. He worked his way up the minor league ladder and made his major league debut in 1964, though only got into two games that year. He would carve out a semi-regular role as a backup catcher in the seasons to come, bouncing to the Cardinals, Reds and Padres.
From 1964 to 1973, he got into 300 games and made 858 plate appearances. He had a batting average of .216 in that time, getting 166 hits, including 28 doubles, three triples and four home runs. He scored 63 runs, drove in 54 and stole one base. The 1970 Reds won the National League West and then defeated the Pirates in the NLCS to advance to the World Series, though they were then defeated by the Orioles. With the O’s up 3-1 in the series and 9-3 in the fifth game, Corrales was sent up to pinch hit for Hal McRae with two outs in the ninth. Corrales grounded out to finish the series and the season, the only postseason plate appearance of his career. (YouTube link via the Orioles.)
After his playing career ended, Corrales shifted into a managerial role, starring with the Rangers in the late ’70s before serving as skipper for Philadelphia and Cleveland. As a manager, he had a record of 572-634 over parts of nine different seasons. His last season as a manager was 1987, but he went on to spend many years as a bench coach, starting with the Yankees. He served in that role for Atlanta for nine years, including the club that won the 1995 World Series. He also served as a bench coach for the Nationals before being hired by the Dodgers as a special assistant to the general manager in 2012.
We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.
Guardians Designate Noah Syndergaard For Assignment
The Guardians have designated right-hander Noah Syndergaard for assignment, as noted by Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes. The Guardians have announced the move and indicated that a corresponding roster move will be announced tomorrow.
The 38th overall pick in the 2010 draft by the Blue Jays, Syndergaard made his major league debut with the Mets in 2015 and immediately had the look of a clear top-of-the-rotation arm. While he battled injuries throughout his Mets tenure, he posted a 3.31 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 716 innings of work alongside Jacob deGrom at the front of New York’s rotation from 2015-2019, with a 26.4% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate, and a 49.1% groundball rate. His best season came in 2016, when he dominated to the tune of a 2.60 ERA with an MLB-best 2.29 FIP, a strikeout rate of 29.3% and a groundball rate of 51.2%.
Syndergaard’s career hit a major snag in March of 2020, when the then-27-year-old righty underwent Tommy John surgery. He would miss the entire shortened 2020 campaign and almost all of the 2021 campaign as well, recording just two September relief appearances that year before hitting free agency.
Syndergaard split his 2022 campaign between the Angels and the Phillies, looking more like a soft-tossing back-of-the-rotation arm than the flamethrowing ace he had been earlier in his career. The results were still solid, however, as Syndergaard posted a 3.94 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 134 2/3 innings of work that year in the regular season. He then went on to pitch for the Phillies during their run to the World Series, allowing three runs in 8 1/3 postseason innings of work.
That solid if uninspiring return to action in 2022 earned Syndergaard a one-year deal with the Dodgers last December. While the sides were hopeful that Syndergaard would be able to build on his 2022 performance and regain some of his lost velocity another year removed from Tommy John, the 2023 campaign didn’t go how either party imagined it would. Through 12 starts with the Dodgers, Syndergaard looked completely outmatched with a disastrous 7.16 ERA across 55 1/3 innings of work, less than five innings per start.
Between Syndergaard’s troubling run prevention numbers and inability to pitch deep into games, the Dodgers moved on from him rather quickly even in spite of an injury-plagued season that saw every other member of their Opening Day rotation spend significant time on the injured list. LA placed Syndergaard on the IL himself with a finger blister in early June and did not appear in the majors again until he was dealt to Cleveland just before the trade deadline in a change-of-scenery swap that shipped Amed Rosario to the Dodgers.
Syndergaard ended up making five starts for the Guardians prior to the club’s decision today to move on from him. While his ERA improved with the club relative to his time with the Dodgers, his 4.94 figure was still 16% below average. To make matters worse, he struck out just 12.5% of batters faced while giving up a whopping seven homers in just 27 1/3 innings of work.
Given those brutal peripheral numbers, it’s hardly a shock that the club has decided to move on from Syndergaard in favor of seeing what they have in youngsters like Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, and Peyton Battenfield. It’s a particularly reasonable course of action considering the 62-69 Guardians, six games back in a weak AL Central with a 9-15 record so far in August, have seen their hopes of returning to the playoffs this year become considerably fainter over the past month since the club acquired Syndergaard.
As for Syndergaard, assuming he goes unclaimed on waivers he’ll have the opportunity to return to the free agent market and look to catch on with another team. Brutal as his results have been this year, teams are always on the lookout for potential depth options, particularly on a no-risk minor league deal like the one Syndergaard would presumably command. To be eligible to participate in the postseason with his new club, Syndergaard will have to sign before September 1.
Guardians Grant Amir Garrett His Release
The Guardians announced Thursday that left-hander Amir Garrett, who’d been pitching with their Triple-A affiliate, has requested and been granted his release. He’d signed a minor league deal with Cleveland back on July 25.
Garrett, 31, opened the season with the Royals — his second season with Kansas City — and pitched 24 1/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball during his time with the team this season. Despite that strong surface-level run prevention, Garrett’s longstanding command issues reached a career-worst point in 2023, as he walked 17.9% of his opponents during that time.
The tightrope act seemed unsustainable, and the Royals clearly felt the same, designating Garrett for assignment on July 9 and releasing him a week later when they couldn’t find a trade partner. He signed with Cleveland not long after and has allowed three runs on four hits and four walks with four strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings for their Columbus club.
The hard-throwing Garrett has never possessed particularly strong command but managed to put together a nice 2018-20 run with the Reds anyhow. The southpaw pitched 137 1/3 innings during that three-year peak, logging a 3.60 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate. Garrett’s strikeout rate has dropped with each subsequent season, however, as his walk rate has steadily climbed. He’s now logged a 5.06 ERA in his past three seasons and 117 1/3 innings.
Garrett could still latch on with a postseason hopeful that’s in search of left-handed bullpen depth down the stretch. With the trade deadline having passed, there aren’t many avenues for big league clubs to add depth at this stage of the schedule. So long as Garrett joins a new organization prior to Sept. 1, he’d be a candidate to make his way onto said club’s postseason roster — if he pitches well enough to merit such consideration, of course.
Guardians Outright Zack Collins
Guardians catcher Zack Collins went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Columbus, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment earlier in the week, when Cleveland claimed Eric Haase off waivers from the division-rival Tigers. Collins has been outrighted in the past and will thus have the option to reject the assignment in favor of free agency.
Selected by the White Sox with the No. 10 overall pick of the 2016 draft, Collins was viewed a bat-first catching prospect with plus raw power and a keen eye at the plate. Questions about his hit tool and ability to stick behind the plate have long existed, but Collins has displayed that ability to draw free passes and put the ball in the seats in pro ball. He’s walked in 13.1% of his big league plate appearances and boasts an even heartier 17.5% walk rate in the minors. Strikeout issues have cut into his power potential, but Collins still popped 19 homers in 471 trips to the plate between High-A and Double-A in 2017 and slugged 22 long balls between Triple-A and the big leagues in 468 plate appearances back in 2019.
Collins has just 11 home runs in 465 trips to the plate at the MLB level, and that’s due largely to a huge 33.5% strikeout rate. When Collins does make contact, it’s typically scalding; Statcast credits him with an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and a 10.6% barrel rate in his career. He’s clobbered nearly 46% of his batted balls at 95 mph or greater — he’s just swung and missed too much to capitalize on that knack for hard contact. He’s a career .188/.300/.329 hitter in the big leagues but carries a much better .252/.371/.468 slash in 1040 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
Defensively, Collins has drawn below-average grades in framing and blocking. He posted strong caught-stealing rates earlier in his minor league career but has struggled over the past two seasons — particularly under the new rules in 2023 (4-for-32). Collins has begun to log more time at first base and designated hitter in recent seasons.
Guardians, Daniel Norris Agree To Minor League Contract
The Guardians have brought veteran lefty Daniel Norris back to the organization on a minor league pact, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. He had elected free agency over the weekend, a few days after Cleveland designated him for assignment.
Norris has spent the 2023 campaign with the Guards. He signed a minor league deal at the end of Spring Training and was called up in mid-June. Norris was DFA within a few days, stuck around after clearing outright waivers, and returned to the bigs at the end of July. He again lost his roster spot last week, as an injury to Cam Gallagher led Cleveland to temporarily devote a 40-man roster spot to Zack Collins as a depth catcher.
The 30-year-old has made six appearances on the year, allowing seven runs (four of them earned) across 10 1/3 innings. Norris has worked out of the bullpen at the MLB level but started 12 of 18 appearances with Triple-A Columbus. He carries a 5.60 ERA across 53 innings there. Norris has a slightly below-average 19.9% strikeout rate and has walked nearly 11% of batters faced at the top minor league level. His fastball has averaged a personal-low 89 MPH in his limited MLB work.
While Norris hasn’t posted great numbers at either the MLB or Triple-A level in 2023, the Guardians are clearly comfortable with him as a depth arm. The one-time top prospect has pitched parts of 10 years in the majors with five clubs. The bulk of that time was spent in Detroit, where he got extended run out of the rotation between 2016-19.
Norris has worked almost exclusively in relief as a big leaguer over the last three seasons but has stayed stretched out as a starter in the minors. He’ll again serve as a non-roster depth option in Columbus down the stretch and will return to free agency at the start of the offseason.
Guardians Claim Eric Haase, Designate Zack Collins
The Tigers announced Monday that catcher Eric Haase, whom they designated for assignment over the weekend, has been claimed off waivers by the Guardians. Cleveland designated fellow catcher Zack Collins for assignment in a corresponding move.
Haase, 30, goes from his hometown team back to the team that originally drafted him and gave him his Major League debut back in 2018. Cleveland selected Haase in the seventh round of the 2011 draft but traded him to Detroit for cash in Jan. 2020. He appeared in just seven games during the shortened 2020 season but broke out in 2021 and has seen semi-regular playing time over the past three seasons.
In 2021-22, Haase turned in a .242/.295/.451 batting line, swatting 36 home runs, 29 doubles and a pair of triples in 732 plate appearances. That offense clocked in about six percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+, and Haase showed some defensive versatility along the way. In addition to his work behind the plate, the Tigers frequently used him in left field (in addition to a pair of one-off appearances in right field and at first base).
The 2023 season has been a rough one for Haase, however. In 286 trips to the plate, he’s slashing .201/.246/.284. Haase has seen his ground-ball rate increase, while his exit velocity and hard-hit rate have both trended in the wrong direction. He’s also popping the ball up to the infield at a career-high rate.
Guardians catchers rank dead-last in offense this season, batting a combined .184/.258/.312. Even a small step toward Haase’s 2021-22 production would clear that remarkably low bar. For now, Haase will split time behind the plate with top prospect Bo Naylor. If he shows well down the stretch, Haase can be retained for another three years via arbitration, so there’s potential for him to stick around for awhile in his original organization. He’s out of minor league options, however, meaning he can’t be sent down without first clearing waivers.
Collins, 28, was the No. 10 overall draft pick by the White Sox out of Miami back in 2016 but has yet to establish himself at the MLB level. He’s spent parts of five seasons in the Majors and tallied 465 plate appearances during that time. His .188/.300/.329 slash is illustrative of his struggles to make contact, though. Collins has a huge 13.1% walk rate in his career, but he’s also fanned in 33.5% of his plate appearances. He’s a .252/.371/.468 hitter in 1040 Triple-A plate appearances.
Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, the only action the Guardians can take with Collins is to attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. He’ll be placed on either outright waivers or release waivers within the next few days.
Daniel Norris Elects Free Agency
Left-hander Daniel Norris has cleared waivers and elected free agency, per an announcement by the Guardians. Norris was designated for assignment by Cleveland earlier this week to make room for catcher Zack Collins on the 40-man roster.
Norris, 30, is in his veteran currently in the midst of his tenth major league season. Initially selected in the second round of the 2011 draft by the Blue Jays, Norris spent the first several seasons of his career primarily as a starting pitcher, drawing starts in 82 of his 97 appearances between 2014 and 2019. During that time, Norris was a roughly average arm for the Blue Jays and Tigers. His 4.54 ERA clocked in just 1% below league average by measure of ERA+ and was largely backed up by his 4.47 FIP. That being said, Norris eclipsed 100 innings just twice during this period.
Those low innings counts resulted in Norris moving to a relief role starting with the shortened 2020 season, to fairly mixed results. His debut campaign as a reliever went quite well, with a 3.25 ERA (140 ERA+) and an even better 2.87 FIP. He struck out a solid 24.1% of batters faced, while his 6% walk rate was the lowest of his career. Norris struggled in both 2021 and 2022, however, combining for a 5.68 ERA and 5.01 FIP in 97 appearances for the Cubs, Tigers, and Brewers.
Those struggles led Norris to latch on with the Guardians on a minor league deal prior to the 2023 campaign, to familiarly mixed results. While he’s performed acceptably in limited chances with the big league club this year, notching a 3.38 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work, he carries an untenable walk rate of 21.2% in the big leagues this year, leaving him with a 5.98 FIP. While he’s posted a more manageable 10.8% walk rate in 53 innings at Triple-A this year, his 5.60 ERA at the level doesn’t provide much reason for confidence as Norris returns to free agency.
Despite those rather glaring concerns, it seems reasonable to expect Norris to find a spot somewhere on a minor league deal. With the trade deadline having come and gone, pitching depth is a constantly sought-after commodity, particularly in the days leading up to September, at which point players added to the organization are no longer eligible to participate in the postseason.
As for the Guardians, the club has plenty of left-handed options available to them for the stretch run, including Sam Hentges, Tim Herrin, and Joey Cantillo all on the 40-man roster. Amir Garrett and Randy Labaut are also upper-level depth options the club has at its disposal, though either one would require a 40-man roster move to make use of at the big league level.