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Guardians Promote Three Coaches

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Back in November, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt seemingly finalized his coaching staff for the 2025 season. As part of that announcement, he revealed that several individuals were promoted to new jobs on the staff, including Craig Albernaz (promoted from bench coach to associate manager), Grant Fink (promoted from minor league hitting coordinator to major league hitting coach), Jason Esposito (promoted from run production coordinator to assistant hitting coach), and Kai Correa (promoted from major league field coordinator to major league field coordinator and director of defense, baserunning, and game strategy).

However, it turns out Vogt and the Guardians weren’t finished handing out promotions after all. Earlier today, Cleveland announced three more changes to the coaching staff. Brad Goldberg has been promoted to assistant pitching coach, Caleb Longshore has been promoted to bullpen coach, and interpreter Agustin Rivero has earned the title of major league coach.

Goldberg earns a promotion for the second offseason in a row. After beginning his coaching career at The Ohio State University, he joined the Guardians organization as a minor league coach ahead of the 2022 season. He then earned a job as the major league bullpen coach for 2024. Now, he will work alongside pitching coach Carl Willis and fellow assistant pitching coach Joe Torres in his new role. Evidently, the team is pleased with the work Goldberg did in 2024, supporting a bullpen that was widely considered the best in baseball.

Stepping into Goldberg’s old role is Longshore, who takes over as Cleveland’s bullpen coach. He was originally hired as a High-A pitching coach for the 2022 campaign and spent the 2023 and ’24 seasons as the team’s organizational pitching coordinator. Like Goldberg, he also has collegiate coaching experience, having worked with the Middle Tennesee State University, Arkansas State University, and California Baptist University baseball teams.

Finally, Rivero earns a promotion after six seasons with the Guardians. He came aboard as an interpreter in 2019 and has taken on more responsibilities over the years. Those include “assisting the coaching staff with all day-to-day functions” and “facilitating life skills growth” for the club’s Spanish-speaking players (per a Guardians press release on MLB.com).

2024 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.

Here are this year’s picks…

  1. White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
  2. Rockies: pass
  3. Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
  4. Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
  5. Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
  6. Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
  7. Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
  8. Pirates: pass
  9. Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
  10. Rangers: pass
  11. Giants: pass
  12. Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
  13. Red Sox: pass
  14. Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
  15. Cardinals: pass
  16. Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
  17. Mariners: pass
  18. Royals: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: pass
  21. Mets: pass
  22. D-backs: pass
  23. Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
  24. Orioles: pass
  25. Guardians: pass
  26. Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
  27. Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
  28. Yankees: pass
  29. Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
  30. Dodgers: pass

Second round (all but one club passed)

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.

Pirates Acquire Spencer Horwitz From Guardians

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The Pirates announced the acquisition of first baseman/second baseman Spencer Horwitz from the Guardians for a three-player package: righty Luis Ortiz and left-handed pitching prospects Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy. Cleveland dealt Horwitz within hours of acquiring him from the Blue Jays in this afternoon’s Andrés Giménez deal.

Horwitz, 27, looks as if he’ll get a crack at Pittsburgh’s starting first base job. He would’ve been an imperfect fit on a Cleveland team that already has Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo. There’s a much clearer path to playing time in Pittsburgh. The Bucs used Rowdy Tellez as their primary first baseman for most of the ’24 season. He didn’t perform well and was cut loose at the end of the year.

The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.

Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. Toronto used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.

The Bucs don’t have a great option at second base either. Nick Gonzales is the in-house favorite on the heels of a pedestrian .270/.311/.398 showing. The Pirates will probably stick with Gonzales at the keystone and use Horwitz at first, but the latter is at least capable of kicking over to second base as a fill-in option.

Horwitz has yet to reach a full year of MLB service. He’s under club control for six years. He’ll very likely be eligible for arbitration after two seasons as a Super Two qualifier, but the Bucs will get a couple years of what they hope is a plug-and-play first baseman on roughly league minimum salaries. It’s questionable whether Horwitz has sufficient power to profile as an everyday option. If he hits his ceiling, he’d probably project as a LaMonte Wade Jr. type who gets on base enough to be a solid regular. Pittsburgh’s first-year hitting coach Matt Hague worked for Toronto in recent years and is surely bullish on Horwitz’s offensive acumen.

Ortiz is the only member of the trio heading to Cleveland who has MLB experience. The 25-year-old righty has pitched in a swing role over the past couple years. Ortiz struggled over his first two seasons but turned in a quietly strong ’24 campaign. He started 15 of 37 appearances and logged 135 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Ortiz managed solid results no matter what role he was asked to play. He turned in a 3.22 mark out of the rotation while allowing 3.49 earned runs per nine in relief.

The underlying profile didn’t match the strong ERA. Ortiz neither gets ground-balls nor strikeouts at high rates. His 8.8% swinging strike percentage was well below average. To his credit, Ortiz did take a major step forward with his control this year. After walking at least 12% of opponents in his first two seasons, he limited the free passes to a 7.6% clip.

Ortiz will have a tough time repeating this year’s success unless he finds a way to miss more bats. That’s not out of the question, as he has intriguing raw stuff. Ortiz sits in the 95-96 MPH range with both his four-seam and sinking fastball. He found a lot of success with a mid-80s slider that served as his top secondary offering. If he can sustain this year’s command while finding a better swing-and-miss pitch, he’d have a shot to be a mid-rotation arm. If not, he could find himself back in the bullpen as a long reliever.

The Guardians have a solid track record of pitching development, but they’re thin in the rotation for the second straight season. Tanner Bibee is the only lock for their season-opening rotation. Gavin Williams and Ben Lively will probably occupy back-end roles. Ortiz has a decent shot of cracking the front five, which would also include one of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen or Joey Cantillo if they don’t make any further additions. Shane Bieber re-signed and could factor in by May or June as he works back from Tommy John surgery.

It’s still a relatively weak group, but the Guardians papered over a poor rotation by relying on a dominant bullpen this past season. While they’ll likely need to do so again, Cleveland could add at least one more starter via free agency or trade. Pittsburgh has a lot of upper level pitching talent, so Ortiz would’ve had an uphill battle to hold off arms like Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler for a rotation spot.

Ortiz lands between one and two service years. He’s at least one season from arbitration and could find himself on the border of Super Two eligibility next winter. Regardless of whether he gets to arbitration early, he won’t become a free agent for five seasons.

The Bucs also pay a bit of a prospect price to even the deal. Hartle was Pittsburgh’s third-round pick this summer. The Wake Forest product entered the spring as a potential first-round talent before struggling to a 5.97 ERA in his junior season.

Baseball America wrote in their draft report that Hartle has good command with fringy stuff. He sits in the low 90s with roughly average secondary pitches. It’s not the highest-upside profile on paper, but this is the type of arm with whom the Guardians’ player development department has thrived. Bibee and Bieber were also command-oriented college draftees whose stuff didn’t take off until they got into pro ball. While that’s certainly not a guarantee that Hartle will progress the same way, it’s not a surprise that he’s of interest to Cleveland.

Kennedy, 20, was a fourth-round pick out of a New York high school in 2023. He made 18 appearances in the low minors this year, working to a 3.66 ERA with a near-28% strikeout rate over 83 2/3 frames. As with Hartle, he draws praise for his athleticism and control but has subpar velocity. They’re each developmental fliers who have a shot to stick as starters if their stuff comes along.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Pirates were acquiring Horwitz. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the return going to Cleveland. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet suggested earlier this evening that Horwitz might end up being flipped to Pittsburgh. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rocky Colavito Passes Away

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Nine-time All-Star Rocky Colavito has passed away, the Guardians announced. The longtime MLB slugger was 91.

A native of the Bronx, Colavito signed with the Indians out of high school. He had consecutive 30-plus home run seasons in Triple-A and played his way to Cleveland by his age-21 season. Colavito carried that over against MLB pitching, hitting 21 homers over 101 games as a rookie in 1956. He finished runner-up to Luis Aparicio in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Colavito hit 25 homers in 1957.  By the ’58 season, he was one of the sport’s most feared power bats. Colavito popped 41 homers while hitting .303 with an MLB-best .620 slugging percentage at age 24. He placed third in that year’s MVP balloting. Colavito drove in 113 runs that season and tallied 111 RBI the next. On June 10, 1959, he became the eighth player in MLB history to hit four homers in a game. He led the American League with 42 longballs en route to his first All-Star nod and a fourth-place MVP finish.

Early in the 1960 season, Cleveland traded Colavito to the Tigers in a one-for-one deal for star shortstop Harvey Kuenn. While Colavito hit 35 homers during his first season in Detroit, his average dropped to .249 in a disappointing overall season. He had a major rebound in ’61, as he set career marks in homers (45) and RBI (140). He hit .290 with a .402 on-base percentage, ranking top 10 among qualified hitters in OBP and OPS. He placed eighth in MVP voting in what was arguably the best year of his career.

Colavito played two more seasons in Detroit. He hit another 37 homers while leading the AL with 309 total bases in ’62. Detroit dealt him to the Athletics over the 1963-64 offseason. Colavito hit .274 with 34 longballs for the then Kansas City-based franchise. Things came full circle the next winter, as the A’s traded him back to Cleveland. Colavito combined for 56 homers over the next two seasons and paced the AL with 108 RBI in 1965. He saw limited playing time with the White Sox, Yankees and Dodgers to close his 14-year playing career.

A career .266/.359/.489 hitter, Colavito was one of the best run producers of his day. He drove in 1159 runs on more than 1700 hits, 379 of which cleared the fences. Colavito had seven 30-homer seasons, including a trio of years with at least 40 longballs. He topped 100 runs batted in on six occasions. Colavito is 81st on the all-time leaderboard in home runs and slots in the top 200 in RBI. While he never got much consideration from voters for Cooperstown, he was inducted into the Cleveland franchise’s Hall of Fame in 2006.

Colavito’s impact on baseball extended well beyond his playing days. He worked in the sport for decades as a coach and radio broadcaster. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and many fans.

Blue Jays Acquire Andres Gimenez

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The Blue Jays and Guardians are in agreement on a four-player trade sending second baseman Andrés Giménez to Toronto. The Jays get Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin for infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell. No cash is changing hands, so the Jays are absorbing the final five years of the Giménez contract.

It’s the first out of nowhere trade of the Winter Meetings. While it’s never a complete shock to see Cleveland deal a high-priced player, there hadn’t been much to suggest they were shopping their Gold Glove second baseman. Giménez appeared to be a core piece since he signed one of the biggest contracts in franchise history just two seasons back: a seven-year, $106.5MM extension.

Instead, the defensive stalwart is on the move for the second time in his career. Giménez began his career with the Mets, where his well-rounded profile made him one of the system’s top prospects. Cleveland acquired him alongside Amed Rosario as the key pieces in their return for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco during the 2020-21 offseason.

Giménez struggled during his first year in Cleveland, but he had a breakout showing in 2022. He played plus defense to win his first Gold Glove. Giménez also turned in an impact season at the plate, hitting .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers across 557 plate appearances. He was a deserved All-Star and finished sixth in MVP balloting in the American League.

Following that breakout season, the Guardians signed Giménez to the aforementioned extension. It remains the second-largest investment in the organization’s history, not too far behind the $124MM deal which José Ramírez inked the preceding spring. Cleveland surely envisioned building their long-term infield around that duo.

That’s not quite how things played out, as Giménez’s bat has taken a step backward. The Guardians probably didn’t expect him to repeat the offensive production he managed in 2022. He had a lofty .353 average on balls in play that would be hard to maintain, nor was he likely to be hit by as many pitches (an AL-high 25) as he’d been that year. Giménez’s numbers probably dropped off more sharply than Cleveland anticipated, though, as he has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons.

In 2023, the lefty-swinging Giménez hit .251/.314/.399 with 15 homers across 616 plate appearances. He improved his contact skills but saw his walk rate and power numbers take a step back. Those trends continued this year. Giménez managed just nine homers in 633 trips to the plate. He kept his strikeout rate to a tidy 15.3% clip but drew walks at a career-low 4.1% mark. He wrapped up the year with a middling .252/.298/.340 slash — his weakest offensive output over his three full seasons in Cleveland.

Despite the concerning offensive trends, Giménez remains a valuable all-around player. He has stolen 30 bases in consecutive seasons and is a good overall baserunner. He hasn’t had an injured list stint since 2020 and has topped 140 games in each of the last three seasons. Most significantly, he’s the sport’s best defensive second baseman. Giménez has been named the AL’s Gold Glove winner in three straight years. He has racked up 59 Defensive Runs Saved over that stretch. That’s well above Marcus Semien’s 37 mark that ranks second at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average doesn’t point to quite as big a discrepancy (49 to 40), but both metrics consider Giménez the game’s best keystone defender.

The Jays have poked around the market at second and third base. They have a handful of young players who are capable of manning one or both of those positions — Ernie Clement, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jiménez among them — but it’s a group light on MLB experience. Giménez has a much higher floor in the middle infield. He’ll play second base for at least the upcoming season. That’s probably his long-term home, though he could be an answer at shortstop if Bo Bichette walks next offseason. Giménez came up as a shortstop. He hasn’t played there since 2022, but he’s an athletic enough defender that he could probably handle the position.

The Jays are taking on a decent chunk of money to make that happen. Giménez is under contract for at least the next five seasons. He’ll make $10MM next year, $15MM in ’26, and $23MM annually for the final three guaranteed years. There’s a $23MM club option for the 2030 campaign that comes with a $2.5MM buyout. The deal also calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Including that bonus, Giménez is guaranteed $97.5MM for his age 26-30 campaigns. RosterResource calculates the Jays’ projected luxury tax number around $229MM, putting them roughly $12MM below next year’s base threshold.

Toronto also deepens a subpar middle relief group with the Sandlin acquisition. The low-slot righty has a solid track record over four years in the big leagues. Sandlin, who turns 28 next month, carries a 3.27 earned run average across 195 1/3 career innings. Despite a pedestrian 92-93 MPH fastball, he has shown the ability to miss bats. Sandlin carries a career 27.7% strikeout rate, which he essentially matched over 57 2/3 frames this past season.

The Southern Miss product has middling control. Sandlin walked 11% of batters faced this year, right in line with his 11.4% overall walk percentage. That’ll probably keep him in the middle innings rather than leverage work, but Sandlin’s four-pitch mix has helped him avoid the platoon issues that plague many ’pen arms. The Jays are desperate for any kind of reliability in the bullpen. Only the Rockies had a worse relief group this year. Toronto subsequently moved on from Jordan Romano, Génesis Cabrera and Dillon Tate. They’re in agreement to bring Yimi García back on a two-year free agent deal, but they could use as many as four or five relief acquisitions this winter.

Sandlin has a little less than four years of MLB service. He’s entering his second of four arbitration seasons after qualifying early as a Super Two player. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.6MM salary next year. He should remain affordable over his three years of club control.

The biggest appeal for Cleveland is offloading the expensive portion of Giménez’s contract. Horwitz, 27, provides them with an upper level depth infielder. The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.

Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. The Jays used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.

The lack of defensive flexibility made Horwitz a tough fit on a team with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s similarly squeezed in Cleveland. Josh Naylor would be the first baseman if he’s not traded. Kyle Manzardo could take over even if the Guardians move Naylor. Horwitz still has a minor league option, so he could go back to Triple-A, but he has nothing left to prove there offensively. It’d be a surprise if a Cleveland team that emphasizes infield defense is willing to use him as their regular second baseman. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that Horwitz might end up being flipped to a third team.

In any case, the Guardians will need to find a new second baseman. Juan Brito is on the 40-man roster and hit .256/.365/.443 during his age-22 season in Triple-A. He’s a potential regular, though there’d be risk for Cleveland in relying on a player who has yet to make his MLB debut. The Guards could pursue a stopgap via free agency or trade if they want to add some stability coming off a division title. Over the longer term, the move opens second base for this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. The Oregon State product profiles as a quick-moving second baseman who could get to the majors by the end of next season if all goes well.

Mitchell, a 21-year-old outfielder, rounds out the return. Toronto just drafted the Indiana product in the fourth round. A left-handed batter, Mitchell hit .289/.350/.467 in 22 games as a college draftee in Low-A. Baseball America wrote in its draft report that Mitchell had good contact skills and above-average speed that gave him a shot to stick in center field. He probably projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Jays and Guardians were finalizing a Giménez deal. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN was first with Horwitz’s inclusion. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic had Sandlin going to the Jays, while Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was first to report the full trade and the absence of cash considerations.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Interested In Several Free Agent Relievers

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The Blue Jays had one of baseball’s worst bullpens in 2024, as injuries and under-performance wreaked havoc on what was a solid relief corps as recently as the 2023 campaign.  Toronto’s steps to overhaul the pen have thus far been more focused on subtraction than addition, as the Jays have parted ways with the likes of former closer Jordan Romano, Genesis Cabrera, and Dillon Tate.

While the Juan Soto pursuit has dominated the Jays-related headlines this winter, the club has been actively linked to many players, as has been the standard operating procedure for Ross Atkins during his time as Toronto’s GM.  This includes multiple relief arms, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi report that the Jays “have shown some level of interest” in Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, and Paul Sewald.  ESPN’s Jorge Castillo adds that Toronto is also one of the many teams interested in Jonathan Loaisiga.

Davidi and BNS note that the Guardians have shown some interest in some of Toronto’s minor league prospects, leading to some speculation that the Jays could look to bring in local product Josh Naylor, who is known to be available in trade talks.  Speculatively, the Toronto/Cleveland connection might also be related to the Blue Jays’ bullpen search, as the Guards are very deep in relief pitching.

The sheer volume of names under consideration isn’t really all that unusual, considering how most teams take a broad view of the ever-shifting bullpen market.  As Davidi and Nicholson-Smith note, the Jays have rarely invested much in relief pitching during Atkins’ tenure, and most of the relievers listed would likely be available on shorter-term deals.  Turning to MLBTR’s ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, Estevez (22nd, projected for three-year, $27MM contract), Minter (34th, two years/$16MM), and Kittredge (40th, two years/$14MM) were the only ones to make the list.

Going beyond their usual comfort zone to sign Estevez might reflect the Blue Jays’ greater need for bullpen help, as non-tendering Romano left a big vacancy in the closer’s role.  Chad Green looks like the favorite for saves at the moment, but signing Estevez would push Green back to a setup job and create a clearer bullpen hierarchy.

Jansen, of course, is far and away the most established closer of the group, with 447 saves over his standout 15-year career.  Though Jansen is entering his age-37 season, he is coming off yet another strong performance in posting a 3.29 ERA and 27 saves over 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2024.

Sewald had seemingly established himself as a solid closer with the Mariners and then the Diamondbacks, and even got off to a hot start in 2024 before running into injuries and a very rough stretch that cost him his ninth-inning role in Arizona.  Better health and a change of scenery could very well spark a return to form for Sewald, making him perhaps a bit of an underrated candidate for teams in need of saves.

Reds Showing Interest In Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas

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“The Reds have kicked the tires on” Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas in trade talks with the Guardians, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  The Guards are known to be open to offers for either player, though there isn’t any indication that a deal with the Reds or anyone is particularly close.  Wittenmyer’s use of the “kicked the tires” phrasing might hint that this was more of an exploratory check-in for the Reds than a serious push for either Cleveland player.

Cincinnati is known to be looking at outfield additions in particular, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall recently said that any new bat brought into the Reds’ fold would “most likely” be an outfielder.  Thomas’ right-handed bat could be a complement for Jake Fraley or TJ Friedl (both left-handed hitters) in right or center field, though since the Reds’ budget may be pretty limited, Thomas’ $8.3MM projected arbitration salary is a little steep for what might ideally be a part-time role.

Thomas hit better with the Nationals (.253/.331/.407 in 341 plate appearances) than he did with the Guardians (.209/.267/.390 in 187 PA) last season, and the combined totals work out to a slightly subpar 99 wRC+.  Thomas was worth 1.3 fWAR overall in his 130 total games, as public defensive metrics strongly disliked his right field glovework, and he was middling at best as a center field.

The Reds’ infield situation is both crowded and unsettled at the same time.  On paper, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte are lined up at the top choices to see time at the corner infield slots and (probably moreso in Encarnacion-Strand’s case) at designated hitter.  However, none of this trio hit well in 2024, plus CES missed most of the season due to wrist surgery, and Marte missed the first half of the season due to a PED suspension.

Adding Naylor’s big bat at first base would add a lot more certainty to this mix, and since Naylor is only under team control through the 2025 season, there would be plenty of time down the road for Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to develop into regulars in Cincinnati’s lineup.  Naylor is coming off another quality season with the Guardians, hitting .243/.320/.456 with a career-high 31 homers over 633 PA.

Given the profiles of the two players, it is fair to speculate that the Guardians might be more willing to trade Thomas in a pure salary-dump type of move, whereas Cleveland would want a more prominent return in exchange for Naylor.  As noted earlier, the Reds’ apparent lack of financial flexibility will make things tricky for Krall’s front office, so fitting Naylor’s projected $12MM salary might be an even greater challenge, even if Naylor offers more upside.

Guardians To Re-Sign Shane Bieber

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Right-hander Shane Bieber is coming back to the Guardians. He and the club have reportedly agreed to a deal with a $10MM salary in 2025, with a $16MM player option for 2026 that comes with a $4MM buyout. That makes it a $26MM guarantee over two years but Bieber can potentially return to free agency after banking $14MM in year one. He reportedly turned down more money with other clubs in order to return to Cleveland. The righty is represented by Rosenhaus Sports Representation.

Bieber, 30 in May, returns to the only organization he’s ever known. The contract is a reflection of his current status, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April, meaning he will miss at least part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the chance to return to the mound in 2025 and establish his health. If his performance can return anywhere near his previously elite levels, he can decide to return to the open market. Though if he hits any kind of setback or doesn’t quite bounce back immediately, he can bank the extra $12MM and stick around another year.

Whether he can indeed get back in form is the big question. Bieber’s ceiling is well established, as he won the American League Cy Young award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 starts that year with a 1.63 earned run average. He struck out 41.1% of batters faced, walked 7.1% of opponents and got grounders at a 48.4% rate.

But things have mostly gone downhill since then, even before the surgery. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t exactly unexpected as maintaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been almost impossible. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate were both off of his previous season but still strong numbers. He missed about three months due to a right shoulder subscapularis strain.

In 2022, he stayed healthy enough to make 31 starts and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, but with more concerning signs elsewhere. He averaged just 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that year, after mostly being in the 93-94 range in prior years. His strikeout rate also dipped to 25%, still a bit above league average but a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time due to right elbow inflammation, which seems in hindsight like a precursor to his surgery. He did make 21 starts on the year but with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate and similar velocity to the year prior.

Going into 2024, his name was in plenty of trade rumors. The Guardians often trade players as their salary grows and they get closer to free agency, doing so with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber somewhat recently. In hindsight, perhaps the Guards should have pulled the trigger on a deal, but maybe they didn’t receive substantial offers on the heels of all the red flags in 2022 and 2023.

For a brief moment, hanging onto Bieber seemed like a brilliant move. He made two starts at the beginning of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in each of them and recording 20 strikeouts in those 12 innings. His velocity came back slightly, with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first start of the year. But it dipped to 91.6 mph in the second start and the news of his surgery dropped before he could make a third.

Now he’ll be looking to come back from the lengthy Tommy John recovery process, as well as the concerning seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a long time since Bieber had his best stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was obviously outside of his control but all but one season since then has seen him miss significant time. In the one season where he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.

All that makes this an interesting gamble for the Guardians, as this is a fairly notable expenditure for them. They don’t generally spend much in free agency, particularly on the pitching side. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, in the last 15 years, this is the first time they’ve given a pitcher more than $7MM. That’s partially a testament to their ability to develop their own pitching but they’ve also only given four position players a larger guarantee than this in that time.

Per RosterResource, the Guards are now projected for a payroll of $107MM next year, already more than what they spent in 2024. They could perhaps drop that by trading someone like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas but this Bieber deal is a decent chunk of the budget either way.

It’s a risky proposition for those parameters. Given that recovery from Tommy John surgery normally takes 14 months or longer, the Guards might only get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any kind, it could be less than that. Even if he is back on a big league mound by June, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be in good form.

The upside play is that Bieber comes back to something resembling an ace. The Guards install him into their second half rotation and then, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that point, he would decline his player option and they could issue him a qualifying offer, which will probably be in the $22MM range. Assuming he declines that and goes out looking for a major deal, they would recoup draft pick compensation.

On the other end of the spectrum are the scenarios where Bieber isn’t quite fully healthy or simply isn’t as good as he was before, in which case he sticks around for another year at an even higher salary than in 2025.

It’s a risk the Guardians are willing to take, which is perhaps due to the respect that the organization has for him, but it’s also perhaps a reflection of the current rotation situation. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, but the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest part of the roster. They struggled to find viable solutions there for much of the year, finding success on the backs of a decent offense and elite bullpen.

Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen either struggled or were injured or both. Tanner Bibee was the club’s only starter who has consistently healthy and performing well all year long. Matthew Boyd was an excellent midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, but he became a free agent at season’s end and has a deal in place with the Cubs.

Next year’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland currently consists of Bibee and many question marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are still in the mix but coming off those aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Lively is on the roster, as are fairly unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards probably have more to do in upgrading that group but they will hope that Bieber can charge in like a proverbial white knight at some point in the middle of 2025 to save the day.

The aforementioned Boyd gives a rough template of what Bieber and the Guards will be hoping for next year. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight starts down the stretch and then had three more good outings in the postseason. That was enough to get him a two-year, $29MM deal, but Bieber has a path to earning far more than that. Boyd is going into his age-34 season whereas Bieber will be going into his age-31 campaign in 2026. Boyd’s injury track record is also more extensive than Bieber’s and Bieber has the more impressive early career numbers.

As such, with a strong finish in 2025, Bieber could position himself to earn far more than Boyd just did, joining 2025-26 free agent starters such as Dylan Cease,  Zach Eflin, Zac Gallen, Michael King, Seth Lugo, and Framber Valdez. Though that’s just one of many potential scenarios in front of him and the Guardians in the year to come.

Buster Olney of ESPN (X link) first reported that the two sides were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided (X link) first relayed that it was a one-year deal plus a player option. Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link) first had the dollar figures. Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link) first relayed that Bieber had larger offers elsewhere.

Guardians Open To Trade Offers On Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas

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The Guardians are open to trade offers on first baseman Josh Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s unclear at this point which teams may be involved or if substantial offers have already been received.

The fact that the players are potentially available is not surprising. At the end of October, just as the offseason was getting going, MLBTR put both on our list of potential trade candidates for this winter. Like many lower-spending clubs, the Guardians are generally willing to consider trades of players as they get more expensive and their window of club control shrinks. These two players are just one year away from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Naylor for a $12MM salary and Thomas for $8.3MM.

Those are perfectly acceptable prices for those players but considering trades at this juncture is how clubs like the Guardians, Rays and Brewers operate. By consistently trading a year or two of a solid but somewhat expensive player for younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives, the organizations stay continually well stocked with talent. That allows the clubs to stay fairly consistently competitive despite a lack of spending in free agency. The Guards have gone down this path before with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and others in previous years.

Naylor, 28 in June, has been a consistent spark in the Cleveland lineup for three years now. He doesn’t walk a ton but avoids strikeouts and has popped at least 17 home runs in each of the past three campaigns, including 31 in the most recent season. He has a combined .267/.330/.465 batting line over those three years for a 121 wRC+, indicating he was 21% better than league average in that stretch.

Defensively, the metrics have been fairly kind to him overall. With almost 3,000 innings of first base work under his belt, he’s produced 10 Outs Above Average. His mark of -4 Defensive Runs Saved is obviously less impressive but that metric had him above average before a -6 grade in 2024, which might be an odd outlier.

Putting the offense and defense together, plus a few steals here and there, Naylor has been worth about two or three wins above replacement per year in that stretch. For his salary, that should give him plenty of appeal this offseason.

The free agent market features some big-name first basemen like Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt, but each of those will be costly. Alonso and Walker are both lined up for nice multi-year deals and each of them also rejected a qualifying offer, meaning they are tied to the forfeiture of draft picks and maybe international bonus pool money as well. Goldschmidt didn’t get a QO and may be limited to a one-year deal because of his age, but there’s still plenty of risk in such an investment since he struggled a bit in 2024. For clubs that don’t want to pay those kinds of prices or simply miss out in the bidding there, they could give the Guardians a call.

Thomas, 29, likely has less appeal on the trade market. His projected salary is a little lower but his ability to contribute is also a bit narrower as he’s a right-handed hitter who is better against lefties. For his career, he has slashed .302/.366/.514 with the platoon advantage for a 140 wRC+, but .223/.290/.391 against righties for an 87 wRC+. Defensively, he can play all three outfield positions, with the metrics considering him around league average in center.

The platoon splits suggest he would be best utilized in a part-time role, but the lack of center field options in free agency could work in his favor. Harrison Bader is the top of the free agent class as a solid defender but with a subpar bat.

There is risk in Cleveland subtracting bats, as their offense wasn’t their strongest asset in 2024. Their elite bullpen carried them to the postseason, with the team hitting a collective .238/.307/.395 for a 100 wRC+. It was even worse the year before, as they hit .250/.313/.381 in 2023 for a 91 wRC+ with the lowest home run tally in the majors. Removing Naylor or Thomas from the lineup would be a gamble but the Guards would have fallback options. Kyle Manzardo could take over for Naylor as an everyday first baseman while players like Will Brennan, Tyler Freeman or Ángel Martínez could take over in center.

Naturally, a trade coming together would depend on what other clubs are offering. For Thomas in particular, the Guards just gave up a three-player package to get him from the Nationals at the deadline, surrendering Alex Clemmey, José Tena and Rafael Ramirez. Clemmey was just drafted with a second-round pick in 2023 and given a $2.3MM bonus, so that was a significant sacrifice. They likely wouldn’t flip Thomas just to get anything in return.

The Guardians are reportedly looking into the outfield market and could use some help in the rotation as well, so there may be a bit of musical chairs happening here. Perhaps a trade of Naylor and/or Thomas could be used to add some young talent to the system, with the cost savings redirected to replacing some of the lost production on the major league roster. RosterResource projects the club for a $98MM payroll in 2025, right around where they were to start 2024.

Teams like the Royals, Reds, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles and others are reportedly looking for outfield help or make sense for a right-handed addition, while clubs like the Pirates, Tigers, Astros, Nationals, Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks and others could be looking for help at first base.

Guardians Evaluating Outfield Market

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It has been a quiet start to the offseason for the Guardians. Their only notable moves have been the trade of middle reliever Eli Morgan to the Cubs and the return of backup catcher Austin Hedges on a $4MM free agent deal.

As the Winter Meetings approach, Cleveland’s front office is monitoring the market for a potential outfield acquisition. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic that the Guardians are open to adding a “complementary player” on the grass.

Steven Kwan is one of the game’s best left fielders. The other two outfield spots are more open. Lane Thomas played a good amount of center field after the Guardians acquired him from Washington in a deadline deal. He’s stretched defensively up the middle. Ideally, Thomas would slot into right field. The Guards don’t have many internal options who could take everyday playing time in center. If they’re to bump Thomas into a corner, they’ll probably need to add a center fielder.

The free agent class at the position is very weak. Harrison Bader is the only player who projects as even a low-end regular. Leody Taveras and Jake Meyers are glove-first options who could be available on the trade market. None of them are going to provide much offense, but they’d upgrade Cleveland’s outfield defense.

The Guardians are also likely to receive some trade calls regarding Thomas. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Thomas for an $8.3MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a decent sum for a low-payroll franchise, but the Guardians relinquished a solid prospect return to land Thomas a few months ago. They’d get a lesser package back after he struggled down the stretch (timely postseason home runs aside), and a trade would leave them with two question marks in the outfield.

If the Guardians stick with Thomas in center field, they’d have some combination of Will Brennan, Jhonkensy Noel and Daniel Schneemann in right field. Noel has monster power but strikes out a ton. He’s a better runner than one might expect given his 6’3″, 250-pound frame, but he might be stretched defensively as an everyday outfielder. Neither Brennan nor Schneemann has demonstrated much offensive upside. Johnathan Rodriguez, Angel Martínez and Petey Halpin are all on the 40-man roster but have little to no big league experience.

Top prospect Chase DeLauter could be a midseason upgrade. An Opening Day call would be a longer shot. DeLauter has battled injuries in his minor league career and has only appeared in 42 games above High-A, just six of which have come at the Triple-A level.

There’s a decent amount of depth in the free agent corner outfield class. Michael Conforto, Max Kepler and Alex Verdugo are all potential regulars who are likely to be limited to one or two years. They all hit left-handed, but a righty bat could better fit the search for a complementary player. Brennan and Schneemann each hit from the left side, as does DeLauter. (Noel is a righty.) Randal Grichuk or recent non-tenders Austin Hays and Bryan De La Cruz could occupy short-side platoon roles. They could pair with Brennan or Schneemann early in the season while allowing Stephen Vogt to shield DeLauter from tough left-handed pitching if he earns a big league look later in the year.

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