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Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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Yankees Notes: Gray, A’s, Machado, Relievers, Extensions

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Although the Athletics contacted the Yankees about right-hander Sonny Gray at least a week ago, “there is no present momentum in talks” between the teams, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. A return to Oakland would represent a homecoming of sorts for Gray, a 2011 first-round pick of the A’s who mostly thrived with the club from 2013-17. The A’s dealt Gray to the Yankees in July 2017 for a bounty of prospects, but he has since looked like a poor fit in the Bronx, leading general manager Brian Cashman to concede that “it’s probably best” for the Bombers to move the 29-year-old this winter. Gray’s down to his final season of team control, in which he’ll earn a projected $9.1MM. Even for a low-budget team like Oakland, $9MM-plus for Gray doesn’t look like an unreasonable figure. Gray pitched like a front-end starter away from Yankee Stadium last year, after all, so he could boost an A’s rotation which is clearly in need of help.

More on the Yanks, all of which comes via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com:

  • Infielder Manny Machado infamously told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic last month that being “Johnny Hustle” isn’t his “cup of tea.” Considering he was then on the brink of a much-anticipated, highly lucrative trip to free agency, Machado’s remarks came at an inopportune time. And now that Machado is on the open market – where he still figures to rake in a historic payday – Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner addressed the superstar’s comments this week, calling them “troubling” and noting that the club would need to discuss them with the 26-year-old as part of a serious pursuit. To this point, though, the Yankees and Machado haven’t set up a meeting, Cashman revealed Thursday. The executive added that the Yankees have used past meetings with free agents to “educate people about who we are and where we want to go and get a feel back if there’s an alignment there, if that player can fit in our culture and our New York environment or not. There’s times I’ve walked away refreshingly, feeling strongly about, ’I’m glad he was so candid because this is not going to be a good fit.'”
  • The Yankees are at risk of losing high-profile relievers David Robertson and Zach Britton to free agency, though they have spoken to both hurlers about re-signing, Cashman said. The 33-year-old Robertson, a Rhode Island resident, would like to pitch for a team in the Northeast, according to Cashman.  “Does he want to come back? Yeah, but he said the same thing to me that he said to the public — he’s got to do what is in the best interests of his family,” Cashman said of Robertson, who’s acting as his own agent. “He’s looking for the best deal he can get. He must have already went to agent school; that’s normally the first thing you hear. There must be a playbook.”
  • Free agency and the trade market are likely the primary concerns for the Yankees right now, but they’ll also consider offseason extensions for some of their current players, per Cashman. Three of their top contributors – center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – are each scheduled to become free agents a year from now, but perhaps the Yankees will prevent one or more of them from reaching the market. “Is it something that’s on the list of things to talk to and walk through and get to? Yes,” Cashman stated in regard to potential extensions for the trio. “I wouldn’t rule anything out. Have we kicked it around in a very small scale way in the offices? Like, it’s now or never? Yeah, we have.”

AL Notes: Salazar, Carrasco, Smoak, Didi

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Indians righty Danny Salazar is slated to begin throwing next month, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). At the moment, the club isn’t certain whether it’ll utilize the hurler as a starter or reliever, though it does sound as if the plan is to tender him a contract. Salazar will almost certainly command the same $5MM salary he did this year after sitting out all of 2018 with shoulder issues. That’s a decent bit of payroll to stake on a return to form, though Salazar has real upside on the mound and will also remain controllable for the 2020 season.

Here’s more from Cleveland and the rest of the American League …

  • Speaking of payroll planning, the Indians will need to budget for a slight boost to the salary for fellow right-hander Carlos Carrasco. As Bastian notes on Twitter, the value on the club option in Carrasco’s extension rose by $750K (to $9.75MM) due to his fourth-place placement in the 2017 Cy Young voting. It’s not entirely clear from what’s known of Carrasco’s contract whether that prior voting performance also operates to boost the value of his 2020 option, which comes at a $9.5MM base price point.
  • It’s also worth noting that the Blue Jays will have to open their wallets a bit wider to hang onto first baseman Justin Smoak. By virtue of topping 1,100 total plate appearances over the past two seasons, he has boosted his 2019 club option value from $6MM to $8MM. That still seems to be a reasonable rate of pay for a switch-hitter who has carried a .256/.353/.495 batting line and launched 63 home runs since the start of the 2017 campaign. Smoak could well profile as a trade candidate, depending upon how the Toronto front office decides to approach the offseason.
  • Elsewhere in the AL East, the Yankees face a tough question on a player entering his final season of control. Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the team ought to strongly consider working out an extension with shortstop Didi Gregorius. Sherman wonders whether the recent Jean Segura contract (five years, $70MM plus option) might serve as a starting point in talks, rightly suggesting that it may well cost a bit more to lock up Gregorius. The 28-year-old is projected to earn $12.4MM in his final trip through arbitration and is a half-season closer to free agency than was Segura. He’s also fresh off of his best season, having posted a .268/.335/.494 slash with 27 home runs in 569 plate appearances. Outfielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Dellin Betances could also be considered for long-term deals, Sherman opines.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salarie

American League West

  • The Astros and Evan Gattis agreed to a $6.7MM deal for 2018, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). A free agent next season, Gattis lands within $100K of his $6.6MM projection. The club also has deals (for values unknown) with starters Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Brad Peacock, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
  • The Rangers agreed to a $1.05MM deal with infielder Jurickson Profar, tweets Murray. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram, meanwhile, tweets that lefty Jake Diekman landed a $2.7125MM deal and righty Keone Kela will earn $1.2MM. Profar had been projected at $1.1MM and is controllable another three seasons. Diekman, a free agent next winter, was projected at $2.8MM. And Kela, still controlled for three more years, matched his $1.2MM projection on the dot.
  • The Athletics and closer Blake Treinen agreed to a $2.15MM deal for next year, tweets Murray. The A’s can control Treinen for another three years. He was projected at $2.3MM. Shortstop Marcus Semien has settled for $3.125MM, Heyman tweets; his $3.2MM projection was nearly spot-on. Oakland has announced that it has avoided arbitration with Liam Hendriks and Josh Phegley as well, but their salaries have yet to be reported.
  • The Angels have a one-year, $7.3MM agreement in place with right-hander Garrett Richards, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Richards, a free agent next offseason, tops his $7MM projection by a margin of $300K. The Halos have also avoided arb with first baseman C.J. Cron ($2.3MM) and left-hander Tyler Skaggs ($1.875MM), tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Cron’s total falls a ways shy of his $2.8MM projection, while Skaggs comes in just $25K south of his $1.9MM projection. Both are controllable through the 2020 season. Lastly, Murray tweets that Matt Shoemaker agreed to a $4.125MM deal. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.4MM. Fletcher also tweets that the club has agreed with righty J.C. Ramirez ($1.9MM salary vs. $2.6MM projection) and lefty Jose Alvarez ($1.05MM salary vs. $1.1MM projection). Finally, righty Cam Bedrosian has agreed at $1.1MM, Flecher tweets, which represents a payday close to his projection of $1.2MM.
  • Left-hander James Paxton will earn $4.9MM with the Mariners in 2018, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Murray tweets that the Mariners and David Phelps agreed to a $5.55MM deal. Paxton, controlled through 2020, projected to earn $5.6MM, while Phelps was pegged at $5.8MM. He’s a free agent next winter. Righty Erasmo Ramirez took a $4.2MM deal, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. That’s half a million shy of what the model suggested. Fellow right-hander Nick Vincent also has an agreement, but the terms aren’t yet known.

American League Central

  • New lefty Luis Avilan has agreed to a $2.45MM deal with the White Sox, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports via Twitter. The recent trade acquisition came with a projected $2.3MM price tag. Fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon will receive $2.3MM, a bit of a bump over the $2MM he projected to receive. Also, utilityman Leury Garcia gets $1.175MM, which is just $25K short of his projected value.
  • The Royals and righty Nate Karns agreed to a $1.375MM deal for 2018, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (on Twitter). That lands within $25K of his $1.4MM projection for the coming season. Kansas City controls Karns through 2020. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter) that Kelvin Herrera will earn $7.9375MM in 2018, landing a bit shy of his $8.3MM projection. Herrera is a free agent next winter.
  • The Indians have a $5MM agreement with righty Danny Salazar, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. He had projected to earn just $200K more, this falls right in line with expectations. Cleveland also agreed with Lonnie Chisenhall on a $5.5875MM deal, tweets Nightengale. The third baseman-turned-outfielder, who was projected to earn $5.8MM, will be a free agent following the 2018 season.
  • Trevor May has a $650K agreement with the Twins for the 2018 season, according to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. May, who missed the entire season due to Tommy John surgery (and did some writing for MLBTR during his rehab process), had been projected at $600K. The Twins also agreed to a $1MM deal with infielder Ehire Adrianza, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Meanwhile, righty Ryan Pressly has agreed to a $1.6MM deal, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Both deals are identical matches with their projections. Adrianza has three years of team control remaining, while Pressly has two. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that outfielder Robbie Grossman settled at $2MM, leaving him $400K shy of his projection. Grossman is controlled for another three seasons.
  • Tigers third baseman/outfielder Nick Castellanos will earn $6.05MM, per Heyman (via Twitter). He had projected at a much heftier $7.6MM in his second-to-last season of arb eligibility. MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports (Twitter links) that the Tigers and right-handed reliever Alex Wilson settled at $1.925MM, while fellow righty Shane Greene will earn $1.95MM. Wilson was projected to earn $2.1MM, while Greene was at $1.7MM. Wilson is controlled through 2019, while Greene is under control through 2020.

American League East

  • The Yankees have knocked out some of their biggest arb cases, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). Shortstop Didi Gregorius receives $8.25MM and righty Sonny Gray checks in at $6.5MM. The former had projected to earn $9.0MM while the algorithm was just $100K high on the latter.Backstop Austin Romine will earn $1.1MM, Heyman also tweets, which is also $100K below the projection. Righty Adam Warren and the Yankees have a $3.315MM deal, per Murray (Twitter link). This is Warren’s final season of eligibility before hitting the open market next winter. He’d been projected at $3.1MM. Meanwhile, fellow right-hander Dellin Betances has agreed to a $5.1MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). That’s just $100K more than Betances had sought last year, when he took his case to a hearing that he ultimately lost. But it’s quite a bit more than the $4.4MM he projected to receive after a subpar season in which he played at a $3MM salary.
  • The Red Sox have agreed to pay $8.5MM to southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That’s short of the $9.1MM that had been projected after Pomeranz turned in a productive 2017 season. Boston and Jackie Bradley Jr. settled at $6.1MM, tweets Murray. That’s a bit north of the $5.9MM at which he’d been projected for the upcoming season. Bradley Jr., a Super Two player, has another three seasons of club control remaining. Nightengale tweets that righty Joe Kelly ($3.6MM projection) agreed to a $3.825MM deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez ($2.375MM salary vs. $2.7MM projection) and righty Brandon Workman ($835K salary vs. $900K projection) are two other Sox hurlers that have agreed to terms, Speier reports (Twitter links). On the position player side, catcher Sandy Leon falls a bit under his projection $1.95MM (via Speier, on Twitter) while utilityman Brock Holt just beats expectations at $2.225MM (per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, on Twitter). The team also agreed with shortstop Xander Bogaerts for $7.05MM, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets, which comes in a bit shy of his $7.6MM projection. Boston also announced agreement with backstop Christian Vazquez, who’ll earn $1.425MM, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). That’s just under the projection of $1.5MM.
  • The Blue Jays and righty Aaron Sanchez agreed to a $2.7MM deal for 2018, according to Nightengale (Twitter link). That crushes his $1.9MM projection, which was likely suppressed due Sanchez’s lack of innings (just 36) in 2017. He’s under Jays control through 2020. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, meanwhile, tweets that second baseman Devon Travis will make $1.45MM next year, falling a bit shy of his $1.7MM forecast. Other Toronto players agreeing to terms include Kevin Pillar ($3.25MM vs. $4.0MM projection) and Dominic Leone ($1.085MM vs. $1.2MM projection), MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets.
  • The Rays and closer Alex Colome settled at $5.3M, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (on Twitter). He’d been projected at $5.5MM and is controllable for three more years. They also settled at $5.95MM with outfielder/DH Corey Dickerson ($6.4MM projection) and $4.5MM with infielder Brad Miller ($4.4MM projection), per Murray (all Twitter links). Steven Souza, according to Murray will earn $3.55MM, placing him right in line with his $3.6MM projection. Dickerson and Miller are controlled through 2019. Souza is controlled through 2020.

East Notes: Yankees, Sox, Nats, Orioles

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With the Yankees intent on getting under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if they’ll shop relievers Dellin Betances and Adam Warren in the offseason. While the two, especially Betances, are high-end bullpen options, the Yankees may not want to spend the projected $7.5MM on the pair given that their relief corps would still be loaded without one or both. Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle will stick around next season, and all four of them are currently ahead of Betances and Warren in the Yankees’ late-game pecking order. Both Betances and Warren are likely to file for larger arbitration requests than their projected figures, Sherman notes, which could be especially interesting in the former’s case. After all, the relationship between Betances and the Yankees took a sour turn during the arbitration process last winter.

  • Landing a big bat, adding depth in their rotation and middle infield, and finding another setup man could be on the Red Sox’s offseason to-do list, Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. Regarding Boston’s power-needy offense, which we touched on earlier today, Jennings lists impending free agents J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jay Bruce as possible fits.
  • The Nationals’ playoff trip this year ended in more disappointment for the franchise, but manager Dusty Baker’s return still looks likely, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The future of Baker, who doesn’t have a contract for next year, is one of the biggest offseason questions facing the Nationals, opines Janes. In terms of their roster, the Nats will have to make decisions on whether to re-sign impending free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, whether to upgrade behind the plate and in the rotation, and how to assemble their bench, Janes adds.
  • The Orioles’ coaches will see their contracts run out at the end of the month, but the team still hasn’t made a final decision on Buck Showalter’s staff for next season, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. If Showalter has his way, all of his assistants – including beleaguered pitching coach Roger McDowell – will return, per Kubatko. However, general manager Dan Duquette didn’t rule out changes when speaking to reporters on the final day of the season. “All those things with the coaches and the staffing, all those things need to be addressed, and I think you have to look carefully at them when you don’t have a strong year and see if there are some adjustments that you can make,” Duquette said.

AL East Notes: Donaldson, Betances, Orioles

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Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson exited Thursday’s contest with what appears to be an aggravation of the calf injury that has plagued him on and off since early in Spring Training, as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes. Donaldson doubled into the right field corner but came up lame after rounding first base and ultimately hobbled into second base. There’s no word on the extent of the injury just yet, but Donaldson began to walk off the field almost immediately after play had halted, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweets that a trip to the disabled list is a possibility. The 2015 American League MVP missed a significant portion of Spring Training and had a brief flare-up of the injury this past weekend.

Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • Prior to the arbitration hearing that led to a controversial string of comments from Yankees president Randy Levine, right-hander Dellin Betances was offered a two-year deal that would have guaranteed him between $8MM and $8.5MM, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports in his latest AL Notes column. However, with Betances’ camp seeking as much as $5MM in arbitration, they elected to go on with the trial. Rejecting the deal seems reasonable, from my vantage point, as even after losing the trial Betances took home a $3MM figure for the 2017 season. Betances figures to earn more than $4MM next year in arbitration, so the downside in aiming high with the arbitration hearing was relatively minimal.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler penned a harsh critique of the Orioles’ paltry investments in international free agency, noting that the O’s spent just $260K on international talent this period and signed only five players. As Badler notes, it’s nothing new, as Baltimore has routinely eschewed significant investments on the international market — much to the detriment of the farm system. Badler points out that even the cash-strapped division-rival Rays spent more than $3MM on 36 international amateurs in 2016 despite being in the metaphorical penalty box for shattering their pool in a previous signing period (thus preventing them from spending more than $300K on a single player). “[O]wnership’s antiquated approach toward Latin America prevents the Orioles’ international scouts from having the resources they need to do their jobs,” Badler writes. Indeed, Baltimore’s total spending is a pittance relative to the rest of the league; on the opposite end of the spectrum, the Padres spent nearly $80MM on international amateurs during the current signing period alone. Notably, the O’s traded their top international bonus slot to the Brewers tonight to acquire recently designated reliever Damien Magnifico.
  • The Orioles will turn to Alec Asher to start versus Toronto on Saturday, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. His selection to face a heavily right-handed lineup suggests that Baltimore plans to utilize its upper-level pitching depth on a case-by-case basis to fill Chris Tillman’s spot in the rotation while Tillman is out, Encina adds. Manager Buck Showalter elaborated on that concept a bit, telling Encina: “We know that has potential to be a moving piece until Chris gets back. We can play a little matchup there until we know for sure when we’re going to get Chris back. … The good news is we have some guys to pick from, not only there, but potentially in Bowie, too.” The Orioles added Asher in a minor Spring Training trade and also picked up several other potential options, including Gabriel Ynoa (in a trade with the Mets) and Richard Bleier (in a trade with the Yankees). Lefty Jayson Aquino was also a consideration for this weekend’s start, Encina notes, but the glut of righties he’d have faced led the team to turn to Asher instead. Tillman figures to be out until early May, so there should be quite a few more spot starts up for grabs among this group.

Dellin Betances’ Arbitration Case And The Value Of Closing

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The baseball world is abuzz about the controversial recent comments of Yankees president Randy Levine, who criticized Dellin Betances’ $5MM filing in his losing arbitration case this past week. After emerging victorious in arbitration, Levine described the filing as a “half-baked attempt” to “change a well-established market” for setup men, further noting that Betances was not a closer — the reliever type that typically commands big arbitration salaries — any more than Levine himself was an astronaut.

Dellin BetancesLevine’s decision to call out Betances after defeating him in a case was questionable, but he was right that arbitration pays relievers based on their role rather than their value. Indeed, my arbitration model forecasted Betances would land at $3.4MM, only a few ticks higher than the Yankees’ $3MM filing, and probably very close to where Betances could have bargained had he and the Yankees opted to negotiate a one-year deal to avoid arbitration.

Setting aside the decorum or business wisdom of the quote, the least accurate part of Levine’s comment was his description of Betances’ filing as an attempt to “change a well-established market.” Arbitration is not a market, or at least it is not a market in the way that people generally mean when they talk about markets. There are no multitudes of buyers and sellers trying to exchange the services of relievers in arbitration. Free agency is a market. Arbitration is a manufactured system of loosely defined rules that players and owners have agreed upon as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The difference is more than semantic. On the free agent market, Betances would be priced like a closer, in the sense that he pitches as well as one. Left up to a free market for his services, Betances could be paid like a closer. This happened just a couple years ago when Andrew Miller, with one career save, received a four-year deal for $36MM from none other than the New York Yankees.

Arbitration, on the other hand, follows a system of rules. Relievers are paid in arbitration based on a series of imperfect retrospective metrics that do not quite estimate value of a performance, rather than a prospective set of metrics designed to estimate the value of a performance, as teams attempt to use in free agency. Each player and team bargain independently, with no other buyers or sellers allowed to enter negotiations like in a typical market.

The most compelling comparables for Betances are those who primarily held setup roles, rather than closer roles, in the bullpen. Limiting to relievers in the last five years who had fewer than 20 saves in their platform year, we only get four pitchers who earned more than $2MM, and all four earned between $2.5MM-2.9MM. Even within that group (Neftali Feliz, Kris Medlen, Mark Melancon, and Drew Storen), all four pitchers had either been closers for longer periods of time than Betances. Medlen had been a starter for a period of time as well.

Looking only at setup men who accumulated large numbers of holds, the comps get even bleaker for Betances. Only four pitchers have gone into arbitration with 70 career holds (Betances has 78 career) in the last five years, and all have received less than $2MM.

Where Betances does differentiate himself is the fact that he has 22 career saves—he does have some closing history—and that he has struck out a whopping 404 hitters in 254 2/3 innings with a career ERA of 2.16. No one discussed in the part-time closer group above or the group with a significant number of career holds could touch those statistics.

And while detailed sabermetric statistics are unlikely to be persuasive in arbitration, Betances’ three All-Star berths were probably one of the better hopes for Betances and his representation. In fact, in recent years, only Craig Kimbrel entered his first year of arbitration with three career All-Star selections, and although he signed a multi-year deal, that only came after the Braves filed at $6.55MM, conceding quite a high value for a player recognized as Betances has been. Only two other players in the last five years even had two All-Star selections going into their first year of arbitration: Aroldis Chapman in 2014 and Andrew Bailey in 2012, who received $5MM and $3.9MM, respectively.

The catch is that Kimbrel had 139 career saves by the time he initially filed for arbitration, while Chapman had 77 and Bailey had 75. At just 22 career saves, Betances was bound to be paid mostly like a setup guy. My model estimates that had Betances’ 28 holds in 2016 all been saves (giving him 40), he would have been estimated to receive $4.5MM instead. If we turn his 50 holds in his pre-platform seasons into saves, that projection shoots up to $6.3MM. But turn those 78 relief appearances back from saves to holds, and we are left with his $3.4MM projection. Levine is, in fact, not an astronaut, and despite Betances’ performance being out of this world, he himself is neither an astronaut nor a closer.

So Betances does not in fact have the halo that typically accompanies a ninth-inning role. In the strictest sense of the word, he is not a closer. Okay … so he does not get coffee. Fine. But let’s discuss how Betances compares to other great relievers and figure out where he stands when we divorce ourselves from the role-based approach to paying arbitration-eligible players.

If arbitration were to reward relievers based on their performance, rather than their context-based statistics, Betances would have entered arbitration in a much more favorable position. Betances has 404 career strikeouts, which is more than any relief pitcher ever to enter arbitration for the first time in the modern era. In the last five years, only Kimbrel himself has even come close with 381 strikeouts, followed by Kenley Jansen at 347. Jansen received a one-year deal for $4.3MM back in 2014.

Limiting to pitchers with 300 career strikeouts and career ERAs under 2.50 (Betances is at 2.16), the only pitchers that emerge are closers already discussed above: Kimbrel, Chapman, and Jansen. From this perspective, Betances filing at $5MM would seem reasonable. Another potential comparable in terms of skill set would be Trevor Rosenthal, who received $5.6MM a year ago from the Cardinals with a 2.66 career ERA and 303 career strikeouts.

Of course, if we know that arbitration is based on retrospective performance, it stands to reason that looking at pitchers based on context-free numbers was unlikely to be persuasive. After all, a lights-out minor league pitcher gets paid the league minimum for his first three-plus seasons. Context matters. What might have been more compelling to an arbitration panel is a statistic like WPA or “Win Percentage Added” as presented by FanGraphs. This statistic simply uses a rough estimate of what the probability a team would win when a pitcher enters an inning (based on inning, score, and base-out situation) and again after he leaves or the inning ends.

For example, when Betances entered with a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning on August 31 against the Royals, the Yankees had a 79% chance of winning. After he saved that game, that 79% chance reached 100%, which gave him 0.21 WPA that day. But when Betances came in with a one-run lead and a runner on first in the seventh inning of an April 12 hold opportunity against the Blue Jays, and struck out Jose Bautista before retiring the side in the eighth en route to a one-run victory, Betances got a nearly identical 0.20 WPA combined for the seventh and eighth innings, because of his large effect on the Yankees’ probability of winning that game as well.

String together Betances’ entire career thus far, and he has 9.30 WPA. That would stand right next to Kimbrel himself, who had 9.29 WPA through 2013 when he first entered arbitration. It would top Jansen, who stood at 7.46 WPA upon reaching arbitration, and well ahead of Chapman, Rosenthal, and Bailey, who had 5.77, 5.72, and 5.05 WPA, respectively at those points in their careers.

I doubt that would have made a strong enough case given the historical importance of saves and holds (in that order), but it might have helped a panel see an alternative way of valuing what Betances has added to the Yankees’ win totals, without resorting to the same old stat columns.

In the narrow sense, Levine is right that Betances has not been a closer. That is almost entirely why the Yankees won this case, because everything else would have shined a brighter light on Betances’ performance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Betances, Pace Of Play, Rox, Schwarber, Rays

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Ace reliever Dellin Betances had more to say Sunday regarding his arbitration-related dispute with Yankees president Randy Levine, telling reporters – including George A. King III of the New York Post – that he has no regrets over comments he made Saturday. Betances added that he isn’t going to seek out Levine to potentially clear the air between the two. “I don’t feel I need to speak to him, I don’t know how [the Yankees] feel,’’ Betances said. “I am just going to try and prepare for the season and help the team as much as I can.’’ Further, on the heels of MLBPA executive Rick Shapiro calling Levine’s remarks “totally unprecedented” Saturday, union chief Tony Clark weighed in Sunday and referred to them as “unprofessional” (Twitter link via Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan).

More from around the majors:

  • In an attempt to shorten games, MLB is interested in placing a runner on second at the beginning of extra innings, but that’s not something the players are ever going to sign off on, Clark told the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Clark actually laughed at the idea while shooting it down, but he did note that players are open to changing the intentional walk (Twitter links via Passan).
  • While Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon’s name came up in trade rumors during the winter, GM Jeff Bridich didn’t show any interest in dealing him for anything but a massive return. Should a trade come together in the next two years, Blackmon’s final seasons of team control, it seems he’d understand. “I just think they value me pretty high, I guess, and that’s why nothing happened,” Blackmon told Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I think that’s good. But it’s my opinion that if a deal had come along where they had gotten a deal worth more than what I was worth, then they would’ve made the deal. And I would expect that to happen.”
  • Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber caught a bullpen session Friday for the first time since he tore multiple knee ligaments last April and informed Carrie Muskat of MLB.com on Sunday that he “loved it.” Schwarber realizes that he must “take it slow with the knee and the injury and everything like that,” though, and likely won’t do much catching this season with Willson Contreras and Miguel Montero on Chicago’s roster. “I’ve got to be ready at any time to come in late in the game from left field to maybe come catch and give those guys a blow,” Schwarber said. “It’s not like I’m going to be the everyday starter.”
  • Although he emerged as the Rays’ best first base option last season, Brad Miller indicated Sunday that he’s on board with moving to second base this year to take over for the departed Logan Forsythe. “I’m not going to prepare for first at all this spring,” Miller told Bill Chastain of MLB.com. “Just try to get as many reps at second and short right now with the makeup of the team. Obviously, I know it’s a long year. I’ve been through changing positions before. So I understand.” After the Rays’ workout Sunday, manager Kevin Cash opined that Miller “looked outstanding” and was “really fundamentally sound.” The middle infield is nothing new for Miller, who has played 369 games at shortstop and 37 at the keystone. The results haven’t been pretty, however, as Miller has posted minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-12.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in nearly 3,300 combined innings at the two positions.

Reactions To Yankees’ Feud With Dellin Betances

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The Yankees and reliever Dellin Betances entered their arbitration hearing Friday in agreement that the right-hander should not be treated like a closer, a source told Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, but they weren’t able to find common ground elsewhere. The club argued that Betances didn’t deserve more than the $3MM it had offered because, for one, he had lost a battle for the closer’s job to then-Yankee Andrew Miller in 2015, per the source. New York also pointed to Betances’ defensive woes – he committed three throwing errors and allowed a 100 percent success rate on 21 stolen base attempts last season – and even placed some blame on him for a decline in ticket sales in 2016.

After the Yankees traded Miller to Cleveland on July 31, Betances took over as the Bombers’ closer and followed a pristine August with a rough September. Betances allowed 10 earned runs on 11 hits and eight walks over the final full month of the season, during which the Yankees went 14-14 and officially fell out of the playoff race. The Yankees argued that Betances’ problems down the stretch helped lead to losses, thereby aiding in their drop from first in American League ticket sales from 2002-15 to second a year ago. As preposterous as that sounds, the Yankees nonetheless managed to defeat Betances in the hearing.

The two sides’ dispute took a particularly ugly turn when team president Randy Levine sparked a war of words after the Yankees’ victory. Here’s more on their fight:

  • Dating back to his breakout season in 2014, Betances has tossed 247 innings – at least 14 more than any other major league reliever. However, in light of Levine’s comments, Betances suggested Saturday that he might not be as willing to serve as a workhorse for the Yankees anymore. “Some of the stuff they said in that room, they value me as an eighth-inning guy. Is it selfish of me to say now, ‘Hey, guys, I just want to come in for the eighth inning with no runners on?’’’ Betances told reporters, including George A. King III of the New York Post. “That’s not the player I am. I go out there and try to battle with my teammates, but now you go in that room and you see some of that stuff, do you put yourself at risk at all times? It’s fair for me to say that.’’ One of Betances’ friends and teammates, left-hander C.C. Sabathia, chalked Betances’ comments up to the “heat of the moment,” telling King that the 28-year-old “is a smart kid and will be able to separate this and try to help this team win games.’’
  • Given what transpired between the Yankees and Betances on Saturday, it’s time for Major League Baseball to at least change the arbitration process for relievers, opines FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. Although the industry no longer regards saves as the end-all, be-all when valuing relievers, arbiters continue to place too much emphasis on the statistic. In addition to leading all relievers in innings since 2014, Betances is third in strikeout rate and fifth in ERA, yet one obvious reason he lost in arbitration is because he only has 22 career saves. Rosenthal proposes developing a statistical model to replace the current arbitration system, which features a panel of judges and has been in place since 1974, though he concedes that major changes probably aren’t coming.
  • Nicolas Stellini of FanGraphs offers a sentiment similar to Rosenthal’s view, arguing that arbitration’s opinion of relievers is “bad for baseball” because it doesn’t properly reward great production from non-closers. Thus, elite setup men like Betances who aren’t on long-term deals have little incentive to overwork themselves before securing sizable paydays. As for Levine, Stellini observes that he “handicapped the franchise for no obvious gain.”

Dellin Betances, Yankees President Spar Over Betances’ Arbitration Filing

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4:47pm: Rick Shapiro, an executive from the players union who argued on Betances’ behalf at his arbitration hearing, has also condemned Levine’s comments, Rosenthal reports. “For the president of the Yankees to say the things he said is totally unprecedented in salary-arbitration history, an absolute disgrace to the arbitration process and to all of Major League Baseball,” says Shapiro. “The only thing that has been unprecedented in the last 36 hours is that a club official, after winning a case, called a news conference to effectively gloat about his victory – that’s unprecedented.”

1:19pm: Betances’ head agent, Jim Murray, wrote to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal about Levine’s comments. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Murray expressed anger about Levine’s decision to speak to the media about Betances’ situation.

“[W]e are not going to be bullied by the Yankees team president. His statements are reprehensible and outright false. His desire to conduct a press conference today amounts to nothing but grandstanding and trying to mislead the media,” Murray says.

“This guy was a 3-time All-Star. He is a unique pitcher that the arbitration system had never seen. He is about as unique as they come. We all knew it was going to be a landmark decision because of what this player has done.”

Betances, for his part, says the situation will make him more inclined to head elsewhere once he becomes a free agent following the 2020 season, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweets. “You look at it a little differently now. I think (free agency) will be a little easier when the time comes,” says Betances.

11:06am: Earlier today, it emerged that righty Dellin Betances had lost his arbitration hearing to the Yankees, meaning he will receive $3MM next season rather than the $5MM he had hoped for. Now, Yankees president Randy Levine is criticizing Betances and his representation at Excel Sports Management for what he describes as a “half-baked attempt” to “use a player to change a well-established market,” as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes (all Twitter links). The hitch was that the best-paid relievers are typically closers, and Betances’ experience in that role is limited. Betances’ $5MM filing number had “had no bearings in reality,” Levine says.

“It’s like me saying, I’m not the president of the Yankees, I’m an astronaut. I’m not an astronaut and Dellin Betances is not a closer,” Levine adds.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that there’s “bad blood” between Betances and the Yankees going back to last season, when the Yankees renewed Betances’ salary for the league minimum of $507K despite Betances’ strong performances to that point.

Sherman reports that Betances tried to get the Yankees to negotiate on an extension this offseason, but the Yankees didn’t go particularly far in pursuing the matter. Betances also tried to get the team to settle on a salary for this season, but the two sides disagreed so thoroughly on what Betances should be paid that they instead went to a hearing without much serious discussion.

The basis of the Yankees’ disagreement is that arbitrators generally don’t reward non-closers with big salaries, and that arbitration salaries are mostly based on precedent. Betances briefly closed for the Yankees near the end of last season but didn’t do nearly as well as he’d done in a setup role. Sherman reports that, during the arbitration hearing, the Yankees argued that Betances didn’t have the high saves totals needed to justify a $5MM salary for a first-timer through the arbitration process, and that his struggles down the stretch (he had a 4.30 ERA with 38 strikeouts, 15 walks, and 12 saves in 23 innings following the trade of Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs) were a factor in their reacquiring Chapman this winter. The Yankees in fact felt that even $3MM was too high a salary for Betances at this point but submitted that figure anyway to make it easier to win the hearing.

Over the last several seasons, MLBTR’s yearly Arbitration Trackers in fact demonstrate scant precedent for a salary of $5MM for a setup man with three-plus years of service. It’s worth noting, however, that Betances has mostly dominated throughout his career, posting a 2.16 ERA, 3.5 BB/9 and a ridiculous 14.3 K/9 in parts of five seasons. Those numbers make it difficult to find exact comparables for Betances. Heading into the offseason, MLBTR projected Betances would receive $3.4MM this offseason.

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