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Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

COVID Notes: 4/19/21

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The latest on coronavirus-related situations around baseball…

  • The Astros plan to reinstate Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Martin Maldonado, and Robel Garcia from the COVID-19 list prior to tomorrow’s game against the Rockies, Mark Berman of FOX 26 reports (Twitter link).  It isn’t yet guaranteed that any of the four will be activated from the COVID-IL, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes that “there are still some hurdles to clear once they’re in Colorado concerning intake testing.”  Jose Altuve is the one player remaining on Houston’s COVID list, and Berman says the second baseman isn’t yet ready to return, though Altuve and the other four players were all cleared for individual workouts yesterday.

COVID Notes: 4/18/21

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The latest on the coronavirus:

Latest Updates

Earlier Notes

  • Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández was reported to have tested positive for COVID-19 on April 13. Fortunately, Hernández is no longer feeling symptoms of the virus, reports Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun (Twitter link). He’ll have to remain in quarantine for ten days from the time of his positive test under the league’s 2021 health and safety protocols. That he’s currently asymptomatic is obviously good news for Hernández personally and seems to bode well for his chances of returning to play in relatively short order once his mandatory quarantine is up.
  • Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has been in the health and safety protocols for almost a month, having first been placed on the COVID-19 injured list on March 20. He has been building back arm strength in recent days, though, and manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) Turnbull could return to action early next week. It’s possible the Tigers will pivot to a six-man rotation at that point, adding Turnbull to a group currently consisting of Matthew Boyd, Michael Fulmer, José Ureña, Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. Hinch said the organization hasn’t yet made that decision. If the Tigers were to go back to a five-man starting staff, Fulmer (who began the season in relief) or Ureña (who has struggled over three starts) would seem the most likely options to be bumped to the bullpen to make room for Turnbull. [UPDATE: Turnbull will start on Wednesday against the Pirates, per Jason Beck of MLB.com (Twitter link).]

Quick Hits: Odorizzi, Posey, Miggy, Mazara, Rays

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Jake Odorizzi was linked to the Mets last winter, though in a recent podcast appearance alongside former Twins teammate — and current Met — Trevor May on The Chris Rose Rotation, Odorizzi indicated that the team’s initial interest was generated by team president Sandy Alderson.  (Mike Puma of the New York Post has an account of Odorizzi’s comments.)  Once Jared Porter was hired as the Mets’ GM, however, the interest dissipated, and the situation didn’t reignite after Zack Scott took over the job after Porter’s resignation.  “Early on, I thought I was going to be a member of a certain team, then some people took over that team and they pretty much hated me, so it fell through.  It was Trevor’s team,” Odorizzi said.

Odorizzi reportedly drew interest from several teams beyond only the Mets, but he didn’t end up finding a new club until early March, when he signed a two-year deal with the Astros worth $23.5MM in guaranteed money.  The long wait didn’t sit well with the right-hander, who described his free agent stint as “the single most frustrating time I’ve had in baseball.  At certain points you think you are going to be a member of a certain team and then it falls through or whatever maybe and it’s like, ’All right, now what?’ And it’s March and I am still sitting at the house.  It’s like, ’What the hell is going on right now?’ ”

More from around the baseball world…

  • X-rays were negative on Buster Posey’s left elbow after the Giants catcher was hit by a pitch during the seventh inning of tonight’s game with the Marlins.  Posey remains on the basepaths after being hit, but was replaced by Curt Casali at catcher in the bottom half of the inning.  Manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Marcus White) that Posey suffered an elbow contusion.  Casali was already likely to start tomorrow’s game, though if Posey needs a bit of recovery time short of an proper IL stint, the Giants might have to call up Chadwick Tromp or Joey Bart so they aren’t shorthanded behind the plate.
  • Tigers manager A.J. Hinch provided Chris McCosky of the Detroit News and other reporters with some updates on injured players.  Miguel Cabrera (left biceps strain) will be on the injured list beyond the 10-day minimum, as Hinch said the veteran slugger wouldn’t be available for the Tigers’ series with the Pirates from April 20-22.  However, Cabrera is making progress with baseball activities, taking grounders and hitting in an indoor batting cage.  Hinch said the plan is for Cabrera to take on-field BP during that Pirates series, “and once he does that for a few days, then we will make an assessment on what’s next for him after that….We’re going to go series by series with him.”  As for Nomar Mazara, the Tigers outfielder hit the 10-day IL last Thursday due to a left abdominal strain.  Hinch also expects Mazara’s IL stint to last beyond 10 days, estimating “a couple of weeks” but noting that the nature of the injury makes it difficult to project a specific timeline.
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo is off to a rough start, with only a .154/.214/.179 slash line over his first 43 plate appearances of the season.  This performance has already cost Tsutsugo playing time, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wonders if it might lead the Rays to part ways with Tsutsugo altogether, maybe as soon as May when Ji-Man Choi is off the injured list.  It would essentially be a punt on the $7MM salary Tsutsugo is owed this season, and while the low-payroll Rays would be loath to eat that much money, Topkin writes that “the Rays may decide Tsutsugo is a lost cause.”  The terms of Tsutsugo’s two-year, $12MM contract prevent him from being sent to the minors without his permission.  Tsutsugo was pretty average (98 wRC+, 99 OPS+) over 158 PA in his first Major League season in 2020, with the obvious caveats that he had to deal with the pandemic on top of the difficulties of adjusting to a new league.

COVID Notes: 4/16/21

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Friday’s coronavirus-related updates from the majors:

  • The Astros placed second baseman Jose Altuve, third baseman Alex Bregman, designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, catcher Martin Maldonado and infielder Robel Garcia on the COVID injured list Wednesday. They’re unlikely to return for the team’s five-game road trip, manager Dusty Baker told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters. The Astros begin a three-game series in Seattle on Friday, and they’re scheduled to play in Colorado next Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • The White Sox announced that they have reinstated right-hander Dylan Cease from the COVID IL and optioned righty Zack Burdi to their alternate site. Cease was only on the list for two days, but he’s already set to return after “a series of negative tests,” the team stated. He’ll make his third start of the season Saturday against the Red Sox. Cease logged a 3.86 ERA with nine strikeouts and six walks over 9 1/3 innings in his first two appearances.
  • Twins manager Rocco Baldelli revealed that he received a false positive test on Thursday, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. He isolated in his office and was then cleared after three or four more tests. The Twins aren’t out of the woods yet, though, as Baldelli said (via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that they’ve had “further COVID-related issues in the clubhouse” on Friday. He couldn’t offer further details.
  • The Phillies with go without three members of manager Joe Girardi’s staff because of COVID protocols, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Hitting coach Joe Dillon, third base coach Dusty Wathan and bullpen coach Dave Lundquist are all away from the team. First base coach Paco Figueroa will move across the diamond to third, and coaching assistant Bobby Meacham will take over at first, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

Astros Place 5 On Injured List

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The Astros’ offense is taking a sizable hit, as the team announced Wednesday that designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, third baseman Alex Bregman, second baseman Jose Altuve, catcher Martin Maldonado and infielder Robel Garcia are all going to the injured list. The team made the moves due to health and safety protocols, according to Astros general manager James Click, who doesn’t expect their game against the Tigers on Wednesday to be postponed, Mark Berman of Fox 26 tweets.

Houston’s losing four regulars in Alvarez, Bregman, Altuve and Maldonado. The first three have been vital members of the Astros’ offense for multiple seasons, and all three have gotten off to strong starts this year. Maldonado isn’t nearly as effective at the plate, though the Astros like his defense enough that they had been finalizing a one-year extension with him as of Tuesday.

With such a large chunk of their position player group down, the Astros are bringing up infielders Abraham Toro, Alex De Goti and Taylor Jones, catcher Garrett Stubbs, and outfielder Ronnie Dawson. De Goti and Dawson weren’t on the Astros’ 40-man roster, so their contracts had to be selected.

Quick Hits: Alex Rodriguez, Odorizzi, Gallen, Sanchez

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Alex Rodriguez may finally secure an ownership role in North American sports, but it won’t be with a baseball team. After making an attempt to purchase the Mets last year, Rodriguez has teamed with billionaire Marc Lore. They are finalizing a deal to purchase the Minnesota Timberwolves, tweets Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. If completed, Rodriguez and Lore would take over in 2023.

The Timberwolves have struggled to build a consistent contender in the NBA since a successful run with fiery big man Kevin Garnett ended. Even then, functional GM Kevin McHale, coach Flip Saunders, and Garnett lost seven consecutive first round series. They finally broke through in 2003-04 for the franchise’s first playoff series win. They’d fall in the Western Conference Finals in what turned out to be the final playoff run of the Garnett era, however. Minnesota has just one playoff appearance in their history outside of that eight-year run, despite a roster currently built around the first overall pick of the 2015 draft Karl-Anthony Towns. You can find out more by heading to Hoops Rumors where Arthur Hill has the latest details. Now, back to baseball…

  • Jake Odorizzi is set to make his debut for the Houston Astros on Tuesday versus Detroit, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Cristian Javier will head to the club’s alternate site to make room, tweets McTaggart. Javier should be back with the big league club before too long, but the Astros wanted to give him some extra time between appearances. Javier, 24, figures to be a significant part of the Astros’ rotation this season, but the 24-year-old wasn’t totally healthy at the start of the year. Regardless, he’s been sharp in two starts thus far, including getting a win with five scoreless innings against Oakland on Thursday.
  • Zac Gallen could also return as early as Tuesday, per the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (via Twitter). Manager Torey Lovullo wouldn’t commit, but it certainly sounds like Gallen will be back soon. The Diamondback rotation has struggled without Gallen leading the way. Now that Ketel Marte has landed on the injured list, Gallen’s return could provide a much-needed lift for the Snakes.
  • Anibal Sanchez cut his fingers just 13 pitches into a bullpen showcase today, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). It had seemed like Sanchez would be ready to sign soon, but he’ll now need 10 days for his finger to heal. The Phillies, Nationals, and Marlins have all been tied to Sanchez at one point or another this winter.

COVID Notes: 4/10/21

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The latest coronavirus-related situations from around baseball…

Latest Moves

  • Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez isn’t available today due to COVID protocols, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe).  Martinez isn’t feeling well and could be back in the lineup as early as tomorrow, though the team is being cautious until Martinez gets his test results back. UPDATE: Martinez has been placed on the COVID IL, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Glove (via Twitter). Michael Chavis has been recalled to take his roster spot for the time being.

Earlier Today

  • The Blue Jays placed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the COVID-19 injured list, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter). Santiago Espinal was activated to take his roster spot. Gurriel left Friday’s game after feeling vaccine-related symptoms, so he’s not likely to be out for too long.
  • Ryan Borucki, meanwhile, makes a quick return from the COVID IL. Ty Tice has been optioned. Tice made one appearance, tossing a pair of scoreless innings.
  • The Astros shifted Pedro Baez from the COVID-19 injury list to the regular 10-day injured list.  Baez is suffering from right shoulder soreness, as manager Dusty Baker told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that Baez “was trying to do too much too soon” in his preparations to return from the COVID list.  Baez was placed on the COVID list in early March, so he missed a good chunk of Spring Training while sidelined.  Since being put on the normal IL required Baez to be returned to the 40-man roster, the Astros had to move Austin Pruitt to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move.
  • The Yankees reinstated both Gio Urshela and Rougned Odor from the COVID-19 injury list, the team announced.  In corresponding moves, infielder Tyler Wade was optioned to the alternate training site, and first baseman Mike Ford had been optioned to the alternate site after last night’s game.  It was only a brief absence for Urshela, who ended up missing just last night’s game due to some side effects after receiving a vaccine.  Odor himself was only in COVID protocols due to standard intake and testing procedure after he was acquired in a trade from the Rangers earlier this week.
  • Cubs first base/catching coach Craig Driver has tested positive for the coronavirus and has returned to Chicago, the team told reporters (including The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro).  Contact tracing and testing revealed no other positive results within the team’s traveling party over the last three days.  Driver is in his second season on the Cubs’ coaching staff, after spending the previous two seasons as the Phillies’ receiving coach and bullpen catcher.

[RELATED: Upcoming Changes to MLBTR Commenting Policy]

Health Notes: S. Gray, K. Calhoun, Jays, Tigers, Astros

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Reds right-hander Sonny Gray doesn’t appear far from making his 2021 debut. Gray will throw a simulated game Saturday, and if that goes well, he’ll start for the Reds next week, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Gray has been behind schedule for about a month because of a back injury, thus robbing the Reds of one of their top starters. The 31-year-old has thrived with the Reds since they acquired him from the Yankees before 2019, having recorded a 3.07 ERA with a 29.4 percent strikeout rate and a groundball percentage of 50.9 over 231 1/3 innings.

  • The Diamondbacks activated outfielder Kole Calhoun from the 10-day injured list before their game against Cincinnati on Friday. Calhoun had been on the shelf for over a month after undergoing surgery on a torn right meniscus. He was a vital part of the Diamondbacks’ offense last season, when he batted .226/.338/.526 with 16 home runs in 228 trips to the plate.
  • Angels outfielder Dexter Fowler departed their game Friday with a left knee contusion, per the team. Fowler left on a cart after stepping awkwardly on second base, though manager Joe Maddon indicated afterward that he dodged a serious injury. Fowler has been the Angels’ primary choice in right field this year, and if he does need to sit out for an extended period of time, they have Jared Walsh, Juan Lagares and Jose Rojas on hand as potential subs on their MLB roster.
  • The Blue Jays sent Tyler Chatwood to the 10-day IL on Friday with right triceps inflammation, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Chatwood,  a former Angel, Rockie and Cub whom the Blue Jays signed to a $3MM guarantee in the offseason, has thrown 2 2/3 scoreless innings this year with three strikeouts.
  • The Tigers scratched righty Julio Teheran from his start Friday because of tightness in his triceps. The team replaced Teheran with lefty Derek Holland, who surrendered three earned runs in 2 2/3 frames in a loss to Cleveland. It’s unclear whether Teheran will miss any more time. The Tigers signed Teheran to a non-guaranteed deal in the wake of a terrible 2020 with the Angels, and after earning a roster spot with Detroit during the spring, he debuted with a five-inning, one-run performance in a win over Cleveland last Saturday.
  • The Astros placed righty reliever Enoli Paredes on the 10-day IL and recalled fellow righty Nivaldo Rodriguez, the team announced. Paredes’ placement on the IL was expected after he left his appearance Thursday with discomfort in his side.

AL Injury Notes: Astros, L. Bard, Ray, Pinder

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Astros southpaw Framber Valdez hasn’t pitched in the majors this season on account of a broken finger, though he did return to throwing from flat ground Thursday, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. While general manager James Click called Thursday’s session a “tremendous step forward” for Valdez, there still isn’t a clear timetable for a potential 2021 debut. Valdez broke out last season with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/3.23 SIERA ball, an elite 60 percent groundball rate, and terrific strikeout and walk percentages of 26.4 and 5.6, respectively.

More injury-related items from Houston and a couple of other American League teams…

  • Angels right-handed reliever Luke Bard will undergo season-ending hip surgery, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to report. He’ll need six to eight months to recover from the procedure. Bard was already set to miss a significant amount of time this season, as the Angels sent him to the 60-day injured list shortly before the campaign began. Although the 30-year-old’s high spin rate has made him a potential breakout candidate since he debuted with the Angels in 2018, he has only managed a 5.05 ERA through 66 innings – including 5 1/3 frames in 2020.
  • The Blue Jays hope lefty Robbie Ray will return to the rotation this week, according to Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star (via Twitter). The southpaw threw 63 pitches in a simulated game yesterday. The last hurdle to clear is just seeing how he feels over the next couple of days.
  • The Athletics placed infielder/outfielder Chad Pinder on the IL because of a left knee sprain, but it appears he’ll sit out for a lot longer than the 10-day minimum. Pinder is is week to week and not participating in any baseball activities, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. The 29-year-old opened the season as one of the Athletics’ main outfielders before going down, and they’ve since used Ka’ai Tom, Stephen Piscotty, Tony Kemp and Seth Brown in the corners to help fill the void.
  • Astros reliever Enoli Paredes left their game Thursday with a trainer, Rome tweets. The righty exited after throwing just three strikes out of 13 pitches and walking the only two batters he faced. Control has been a problem in all three appearances this year for Paredes, who has walked six hitters in 1 1/3 innings. Paredes also put up a below-average walk rate of 12.2 percent in his rookie year in 2020, but he still notched a 3.05 ERA (with a much less inspiring 4.63 SIERA) over 20 2/3 frames. [UPDATE: Paredes “did something to his side,” manager Dusty Baker said (via Rome). The Astros should know more Friday.]
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