Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
A month ago, the Astros came within a game of winning their second World Series in three seasons. Now? They’re the subject of an investigation by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred’s office and could lose one of the game’s best pitchers to free agency.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Altuve, 2B: $130MM through 2024
- Alex Bregman, 3B/SS: $100MM through 2024
- Zack Greinke, RHP: $70MM through 2021 ($22MM deferred, D-backs paying $10.33MM annually)
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $66MM through 2021
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $17.5MM through 2021
- Michael Brantley, OF: $16MM through 2020
- Josh Reddick, OF: $13MM through 2020
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B/3B: $8.3MM through 2020
Arbitration-Eligible Players (contract projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- George Springer – $21.4MM
- Brad Peacock – $4.6MM
- Jake Marisnick – $3.0MM
- Aaron Sanchez – $5.6MM
- Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.1MM
- Carlos Correa – $7.4MM
- Roberto Osuna – $10.2MM
- Chris Devenski – $2.0MM
- Joe Biagini – $1.5MM
- Aledmys Diaz – $2.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Sanchez, Devenski, Biagini
Free Agents
- Wade Miley, Robinson Chirinos, Martin Maldonado, Hector Rondon, Joe Smith, Will Harris, Collin McHugh
We’ll get this out of the way up front: while the Astros have plenty of roster needs to address this offseason, the primary storyline right now is the league’s investigation into the electronic sign-stealing accusations brought forth against them, which stem back to the 2017 season. There are potentially severe ramifications for the Houston organization if sufficient evidence arises to prove their guilt, but at this point the extent of those still-theoretical sanctions can’t be known. This outlook will focus purely on the team’s roster and payroll outlook, as there’s no means of determining exactly when, how or even if the Astros will be penalized by the commissioner’s office.
With that out of the way, the biggest needs facing the Astros organization come in the rotation and behind the plate. Houston picked up Zack Greinke in a last-minute trade-deadline blockbuster, but Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley both reached free agency at season’s end. Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado are both free agents, too, leaving 26-year-old Garrett Stubbs as the only catcher on Houston’s 40-man roster. Clearly, that leaves president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow and his staff with some work to do.
To what extent is ownership willing to spend to address those needs, though? Owner Jim Crane said in early October that the Astros “prefer not to” cross the $208MM luxury tax barrier, though he cautioned that the team’s postseason showing could influence that decision. A run to Game 7 of the World Series surely put some extra cash in the pipeline, but the strongest comments Crane has made with regard to spending this winter came earlier this month when discussing Cole’s free agency: “We’re going to take a run at it. We don’t know if we can get to where they want to get. [Agent Scott] Boras is tough to deal with.” A resounding cry of aggression, it was not, but that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The likelihood that Cole has become too large a piece to fit into this puzzle has been apparent for some time now.
The biggest obstacle for the Astros is that even assuming a non-tender of July acquisition Aaron Sanchez, whose 2020 status is up in the air after shoulder surgery, Houston’s payroll will top $200MM in 2020. The exact projections will vary, as the specific number is dependent on arbitration-eligible players and on determining exactly what they owe Greinke. The D-backs are paying a reported $10.33MM of the $35MM owed to Greinke in 2020 and 2021 ($32MM base salary plus a $3MM payment of his pro-rated signing bonus), and $11MM of that yearly sum is deferred to 2022-26.
None of those payroll gymnastics matter for luxury-tax purposes, though, as that calculation is more straightforward and based on the average annual value of the team’s contractual obligations. Between guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections, pre-arbitration players and money set aside for player benefits, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource has their current luxury obligations at a whopping $238MM. Non-tendering Sanchez would trim $5.6MM of that, but it’s clear that the team’s offseason level of activity will be heavily dependent on whether Crane and his group can indeed stomach what looks like a potentially notable luxury hit.
Given the team’s cloudy fiscal outlook, it’s perhaps not surprising that Luhnow has already gone on record as stating that right-hander Jose Urquidy will “likely” be in the team’s rotation next year. He’ll be joined by a returning Lance McCullers Jr., and the club has some upper-level depth in Rogelio Armenteros, Cionel Perez, Bryan Abreu and Forrest Whitley. But Whitley’s stock is down after a miserable 2019 season, McCullers is something of a wild card in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and the team traded righties Corban Martin and J.B. Bukauskas to the D-backs in the Greinke swap. At the very least, one veteran stabilizer or would seem to be a prudent addition — even if it’s a low-cost add in the Brett Anderson or Homer Bailey mold. If the Astros want more of an upside play, they could roll the dice on Josh Lindblom, Kwang-hyun Kim or Shun Yamaguchi as they look to jump from the KBO (Lindblom, Kim) and NPB (Yamaguchi) to the Majors.
Behind the plate, a reunion with any number of old friends would be logical: Chirinos, Maldonado and Jason Castro are all available in free agency. The Mariners are reportedly exploring the market for Omar Narvaez, who’s only projected to receive a modest $2.9MM salary in his first year of arbitration. On the pricier side of things, the Cubs could listen to offers for Willson Contreras. Ultimately, whether it’s via trade or free agency, the Astros have to add a catcher or two; Stubbs hit just .240/.332/.397 (79 wRC+) last year in Triple-A while the rest of the league exploded with historic levels of offensive output.
Around the rest of the roster, things look largely set. Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman will comprise the infield, while the outfield has Michael Brantley, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker in the mix. Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez will return to DH and could see some occasional reps in left or at first base. It’s a stacked lineup.
There’s a scenario where the Astros stick primarily in house for the starting staff, pick up a cheap catcher and hope their core can stay healthy enough to carry them to yet another AL West championship. They could even look to shed some of Reddick’s remaining $13MM and go with the younger, more affordable Tucker in right field. There’s enough talent there, but relying on McCullers and a pair of young arms to round out the starting staff would leave the team with little depth, especially in the event of an injury to Verlander or Greinke.
Frankly, however, it’s hard to see just how this Astros roster could possibly be constructed to drop below the luxury tax without severely compromising its core. Barring a shocking trade — e.g. Springer, Greinke — there just aren’t many natural means to reducing payroll. As such, the best course of action is probably to just bite the bullet and wade deep into luxury-tax waters. After all, the Astros will see Reddick, Brantley, Springer, Gurriel and Peacock all come off the books for the 2021 season. Greinke and Verlander will both be free agents the following winter. That’s not to say Houston’s window is “closing,” but the current roster presents an excellent shot at returning to postseason play (particularly with a few additions). A one-year dalliance into luxury territory isn’t likely to come with especially lengthy or concerning ramifications.
And if Houston is willing to pay the luxury tax, the market offers plenty of intriguing mid-rotation arms that won’t require a $30MM+ annual salary like Cole or Stephen Strasburg ultimately will. A reunion with Dallas Keuchel or a pursuit of a mid-tier option like Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson or Michael Pineda would make plenty of sense. Alternatively, the Astros could look to the trade market to find a less pricey option. Jon Gray or Chris Archer have high-end raw stuff, and Houston has successfully coaxed better performances out of pitchers in similar scenarios. The team had interest in Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline and could look into him again.
The flexibility they have on the position-player side bodes well for creative additions, too. If the Astros have grown weary of Correa’s injury troubles, could they even utilize him to acquire starting pitching help and make a separate run at a high-end trade target? Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant have already seen their names pop up in rumors, and the free-agent market isn’t short on quality third basemen if the team is comfortable with Bregman playing shortstop on a full-time basis.
At this point, a legitimate run at signing any of Cole, Strasburg or Anthony Rendon seems hard to fathom, as it’d truly put the Astros into unprecedented luxury tax territory. But there’s room for the team to shed some salary (Sanchez, Reddick, Chris Devenski, Jake Marisnick, perhaps Roberto Osuna), still make a few additions and simply be OK with living in the second tier of penalization. (The max penalty any first-time CBT offender would pay for going right up to the cusp of the top penalty tier would be $10.4MM.) It’ll be a fine line to walk, but this Houston front office should be creative enough to successfully thread that needle.
Quick Hits: Reddick, Cubs, Betts, Attendance
A few quick items from around the game…
- Astros outfielder Josh Reddick underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder AC joint on Friday, according to a tweet from Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (link). Despite the apparently ailing shoulder, Reddick managed to appear in 151 games last season, his seventh full go-around in the majors. Reddick is expected to be ready for Spring Training, on the heels of a rather tepid 2019 that saw him hit .275/.319/.409 (94 wRC+) while grading out as a below-average regular on the whole (1.1 fWAR). After falling short in this year’s Fall Classic, it will be interesting to see what the club does with regard to Reddick. The 32-year-old is due one more season of $13MM salary before hitting free agency next offseason, so it’s not as if a trade is a likely scenario. Still, Reddick’s spot in the outfield, along with the club’s current vacancy at catcher, strikes this writer as an area of potential improvement for club president of baseball ops Jeff Luhnow to explore this winter. At the least, it will be interesting to see how Reddick’s 2020 playing time is impacted by promising in-house youngster Kyle Tucker.
- Earlier today we brought news of the Yankees’ hire of Rachel Balkovec, 32, to a minor league hitting coach role. According to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, it appears the Cubs have also hired a 32-year-old Rachel with an impressive resume to their player development corps, with Bastian relaying that Marshall alum Rachel Folden will now serve as the lead hitting lab tech and fourth coach for Chicago’s Rookie League Mesa affiliate (link). Folden comes to the Cubs with experience instructing baseball and softball players “based on biomechanics, science, technology and data” via her own fastpitch instructional enterprise. Folden’s primary connection to the Cubs comes through Justin Stone, Chicago’s new director of hitting, who previously deployed Folden as a hitting consultant at his own Elite Baseball Training academy. Stone, commenting on her hire, described Folden as the “perfect person” to cross the implicit barriers that have long sidelined professionals like Balkovec and Folden.
- Earlier this winter, Red Sox team president and CEO Sam Kennedy said his club would “continue to engage” with the representatives of outfielder Mookie Betts in regard to extension talks, but Kennedy allowed on Friday that those talks have yet to begin, as noted in an article from Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (link). While new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran met with Betts’ reps from VC Sports during the GM Meetings last week, those talks are said to have been of a mostly informal nature. Kennedy had reiterated his desire to keep Betts in a Red Sox uniform several times this offseason, and it’s hardly unexpected that Bloom may still be getting a handle on the broadest aspects of his new role. Betts is projected to make $27.7MM this offseason in his final pass through arbitration and has long proclaimed a desire to test free agency.
- MLB attendance slipped 1.5 percent in 2019, adding to a cumulative 8.5 percent drop dating back to 2012. Joe Sheehan of Baseball America places much of the blame for this attendance swoon at the doorstep of the “rebuilding processes that are leading to unwatchable baseball”. As Sheehan notes, the Phillies, Twins, Reds, and Padres all saw attendance increases after making a few impact additions last offseason, while even winning teams like the Indians saw fewer passes through the turnstiles after largely standing pat in the winter of 2018-2019. Of course, it’s also worth noting, by my own addition, that several of the teams flagging in the attendance category also operate in some of the smallest and least economically flourishing metropolitan markets (although aspects of revenue sharing, of course, help to mitigate those factors).
Quick Hits: Astros, Mariners, Haniger, Hardy
The investigation into misconduct on the part of the Houston Astros continues, with details of commissioner Rob Manfred’s process coming out yesterday. In the newest report from ESPN, Jeff Passan covers similar territory, while also providing further anecdotal evidence of the paranoia that exists in the league around the Astros’ alleged sign-stealing program. One particularly striking example described a starting pitcher who wanted to use a whole new system of pitch calling that would include “jersey pulls, hat tugs, head shakes and glove placements.” The Nationals, for their part, managed to overcome any potential sign-stealing by the Astros during this year’s World Series, though Washington came into those games armed with five separate sets of unique signs to help forestall any extra efforts made by the Astros. They did, of course, manage to win all four games played at Minute Maid Park. While this investigation continues, let’s check in on some player news…
- The Mariners have an overcrowded, if not star-studded outfield picture coming into 2020, with veterans like Mallex Smith, Mitch Haniger, and Domingo Santana competing for playing time with youngsters hoping to establish their MLB credentials (Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop and Kyle Lewis). With Daniel Vogelbach locked into the designated hitter role, they are without that resource for at-bats, not to mention the further overpopulation that comes from rostering the versatile skillsets of Dee Gordon, Shed Long, Austin Nola, Dylan Moore, and Tim Lopes – all of whom are capable of spending time on the grass. Regardless, GM Jerry Dipoto is not tempted to sell-low and trade Haniger, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns. Despite Haniger’s injury-riddled 2019, Dipoto has not softened on his fervor for Haniger as a cornerstone player. Johns quotes Dipoto as saying, “He embodies almost everything about what we stand for and what we’re trying to set up in our systems and our programs.” Dipoto foresees Haniger returning to right field this season and occupying one of the 2 through 4 spots in the batting order.
- Lefty reliever Blaine Hardy has begun to attract interest on the free agent market, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Beck names the Twins as one team that has shown interest, though multiple organizations appear to be in on the ex-Tiger. Hardy, 33 in mid-March, was drafted by the Royals, but spent the entirety of his MLB career with the Tigers. After Detroit signed him to a minor league deal following the 2012 season, Hardy would make his major-league debut during the 2014 season, pitching to a 2.54 ERA across 38 appearances. Outside the 70 appearances he made in 2015, Hardy has been up-and-down most seasons, making between 21 and 39 appearances in the majors every year from 2016 to 2019. In all, he amassed 233 appearances across 6 seasons with the Tigers (13 starts in 2018) with a 3.73 ERA/4.11 FIP and pretty even splits between lefties and righties.
Quick Hits: Astros Investigation, Minor Leagues, Manfred, Rangers
As part of an organized probe into Houston’s alleged use of technology to steal signs, investigators under the direction of commissioner Rob Manfred met with “15-20” Astros personnel this past week, according to Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated. Members of the club’s 2017 coaching staff, including manager A.J. Hinch, were among those to interview with investigators, with a source familiar with the investigation telling Verducci that Mike Fiers’ description of the club’s sign-stealing operation has proven accurate. According to Verducci’s report, the scheme–which is said to have relied upon a center-field camera, dugout televisions, and trashcans to signal forthcoming pitches to club hitters–was used for a period of “about three months” in 2017, but investigators are still trying to determine whether the club deployed this system during the playoffs.
A separate investigation is looking into a directive from a Houston front office employee, Kevin Goldstein, to club scouts that suggested the use of cameras to surveil opposing dugouts in 2017. As Verducci’s piece notes, these investigations could have a wide-ranging impact on the broader role of technology in today’s game, where laptops, monitors, and cameras are omnipresent in team clubhouses and video rooms.
A few other items of note from around the game…
- Speaking of the commissioner, Manfred spoke with reporters Thursday at the owner’s meetings in Arlington, with several interesting comments on the league’s proposed reorganization of Minor League Baseball, as relayed by Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser. As Manfred tells it, the league’s overture toward the contraction of 42 minor league affiliates was made in response to four key problems plaguing their system–namely, poor facilities, long travel times, low pay, and a lack of realistic opportunity for many players to make the majors. Manfred doesn’t take kindly to the response issued by minor league officials to the league’s suggested plan–which reportedly would include not only contraction but also the creation of a “dream league” for undrafted players–but he still feels bullish about the ability of both parties to conclude a new working arrangement. “But at the end of the day Minor League Baseball needs to make an agreement with us and I’m sure we probably will make an agreement at some point,” said Manfred. MiLB President Pat O’Conner may not take as rosy of an outlook to this ongoing process, with his recent comments conveying suspicion in regard to the league’s plan. In quotes relayed by The Athletic’s Evan Drellich on Oct 19, O’Conner characterized the plan as a “death sentence” for the 42 teams affected, while also suggesting that the league’s proposed restructuring represents an attempt by MLB to exert more control over the minor leagues.
- Meanwhile, also in Texas, an offseason event allowed Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News to speak with several Rangers players, including Taylor Hearn and Nomar Mazara (Twitter links). Hearn, who just wrapped an injury-wrecked 2019 that included an inflamed UCL and a fracture underneath his elbow, told Grant that he threw four bullpens in October, followed by a few weeks of rest. Hearn has resumed his throwing program and should be ready to prep for 2020. The 25-year-old lefty appeared in just four minor league games this season, also making his MLB debut in an April 25 start that lasted one-third of an inning. As for Mazara, club officials apparently told the 24-year-old during his 2019 exit interview that he should prepare to play some first base next season. Mazara told Grant that he is prepared to do some work at first, but he is still expected to be used primarily as an outfielder moving forward. Mazara has generally graded out as a slightly below-average defensive option on the grass, recording -2.7 UZR and -4 DRS figures in right field last season. The Rangers have been connected to outfielder Marcell Ozuna this winter, while trade rumors connected Mazara’s name to several teams in advance of this past season’s July 31 trade deadline.
Quick Hits: Ellsbury, Orioles, Rockies, Vogt
Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury plans to continue his career in 2020, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears. Ellsbury just went through a pair of seasons wiped out by injuries, which led the Yankees to release him Wednesday and eat the remaining $26MM on his contract. But the 36-year-old’s now “finishing up his rehab [in Arizona] with a focus on Spring Training,” a source told Feinsand. Ellsbury, an MVP candidate with the Red Sox at his peak, remained a respectable major leaguer last time he was healthy enough to play. He posted a .264/.348/.402 line with seven home runs, 22 stolen bases on 25 tries, and 1.6 fWAR over 409 plate appearances in 2017. With that in mind, someone’s likely to take a chance on Ellsbury on a minor league contract before next season.
More from around baseball…
- The Orioles have hired Eve Rosenbaum to fill a new role with the organization – director of baseball development – Dan Connolly of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Rosenbaum, a Harvard graduate and Maryland native who spent the past five seasons with the Astros and was at the helm of their international signing period this year, is familiar with Orioles general manager Mike Elias from their time working together in Houston’s front office. Now reunited with Elias, Rosenbaum will largely focus on analytics and scouting in Baltimore, Connolly relays.
- The Rockies “will look at” free-agent catchers Travis d’Arnaud, Yan Gomes, Martin Maldonado, Robinson Chirinos, Jason Castro and Alex Avila, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. While the Rockies won’t spend much this offseason, nobody in that group of catchers figures to break the bank on the open market, and the club’s need behind the plate is obvious. Colorado’s backstops struggled to the majors’ 28th-ranked fWAR (minus-1.7) in 2019, when Tony Wolters, Chris Iannetta, Dom Nunez and Drew Butera all managed miserable offensive numbers.
- Vogt may not be on Colorado’s list of catcher targets, but he is among the backstops “generating early interest,” Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. The market for catchers is moving quicker than it is at other positions, per Passan. The Athletics and Giants, two of Vogt’s previous teams, are known to have interest in the 35-year-old former All-Star. The fact that he may be in position to sign early (and land a big league contract) is a significant change from last offseason, when Vogt went without a deal until the Giants handed him a minors pact in February. It proved to be a terrific buy-low move for San Francisco, as Vogt revived his career with a .263/.314/.490 line and 10 homers across 280 trips to the plate.
Players Added To 40-Man Roster: American League
We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from American League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.
AL West:
- The Athletics made just one addition to the 40-man roster, righty Daulton Jefferies, which resulted in the DFA of righty Jharel Cotton (more on that move here).
- The Rangers will add at least four players to their 40-man, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Infielder Sherten Apostel, outfielder Leody Taveras, and hurlers Demarcus Evans and Tyler Phillips are all reportedly set to get a slot. Taveras is the most exciting name of this bunch; by the reckoning of some observers, he’s one of the club’s best prospects. Apostel came over in the Keone Kela trade. The two pitchers are upper-minors arms who could contribute in 2020.
- There’s 40-man movement elsewhere in Texas as well. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that the Astros have tacked on four players: Taylor Jones, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. The last of those is the one that came from the farthest reaches of the prospect map (half a season of High-A ball); clearly, the ‘Stros see him as an up-and-comer and were worried other teams would as well. Jones had a strong season at Triple-A and could fight for a bench spot. Javier and Paredes could be in the MLB bullpen mix after running up the farm ladder with high strikeout rates in 2019.
- The Angels have selected second baseman/outfielder Jahmai Jones and lefty Hector Yan, according to the club. Both players (Jones – No. 6; Yan – No. 17) rank among the Angels’ top 20 prospects at MLB.com. The 22-year-old Jones is a 2015 second-rounder who spent the past two seasons at the Double-A level, where he hit .234/.308/.324 in 544 plate appearances in 2019. Yan, a 20-year-old native of the Dominican Republic, rose to Single-A ball this past season and notched a 3.39 ERA/3.17 FIP with a whopping 12.22 K/9 against 4.29 BB/9 over 109 innings.
AL Central:
- The Twins have selected the contracts of righties Jhoan Duran and Dakota Chalmers, outfielders Gilberto Celestino and Luke Raley, and infielder/outfielder Travis Blankenhorn, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets. Three of those players – Duran (No. 9), Celestino (No. 20) and Blankenhorn (No. 23) – rank among the Twins’ top 25 prospects at MLB.com.
- Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports that the Tigers have selected the contracts of infielder Isaac Paredes; outfielders Daz Cameron and Derek Hill; and right-handers Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser and Anthony Castro. Each of Paredes, Cameron, Burrows, Funkhouser and Castro are ranked inside the organization’s Top 20 prospects at MLB.com, while Hill checks in at 28th. Cameron, Hill, Burrows and Funkhouser were all top 50 picks in the MLB Draft at one point.
- Kansas City’s slate of additions was accompanied by four DFAs, as detailed here. The Royals added lefty Foster Griffin, right-hander Carlos Hernandez, shortstop Jeison Guzman and outfielder Nick Heath to the 40-man roster this afternoon.
- Seven players were added to the White Sox‘ 40-man roster today, per a club announcement: catcher Yermin Mercedes, outfielder Blake Rutherford, left-hander Bernardo Flores Jr. and right-handers Zack Burdi, Dane Dunning, Matt Foster and Jimmy Lambert. Burdi and Dunning, in particular, are well-regarded pitching prospects on the mend from Tommy John surgery. Rutherford, a former first-round pick, was a key trade acquisition who was protected despite a lackluster season in Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League.
AL East:
- Infielder Santiago Espinal and righty Thomas Hatch were the Blue Jays‘ pair of roster additions on Wednesday. Toronto jettisoned Tim Mayza and Justin Shafer from the 40-man roster in a pair of corresponding moves, as explored at greater length here.
- The Orioles announced that they’ve selected the contracts of left-hander Keegan Akin, right-hander Dean Kremer, infielder/outfielder Ryan Mountcastle and outfielder Ryan McKenna. Mountcastle, a former first-rounder, has long been considered among the organization’s most promising minor leaguers. Akin posted a down year in Triple-A in 2019 but has generally been successful and is viewed as a near-MLB ready arm.
- The Red Sox have added infielders C.J. Chatham and Bobby Dalbec, outfielder Marcus Wilson, and lefties Kyle Hart and Yoan Aybar to their 40-man, the team announced.The most hyped farmhand there is Dalbec, whom MLB.com ranks as the Red Sox’s second-best prospect. The 24-year-old reached the Triple-A level for the first time in 2019 after obliterating Double-A pitching, and he posted a .257/.301/.478 line with seven home runs and 29 strikeouts against just five walks over 123 trips to the plate.
Robinson Chirinos Drawing Interest From Several Clubs
Nov. 20: In addition to the Mets, Chirinos has also received interest from the Astros, the Reds and the Rangers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. A deal with either Texas-based club would of course represent a reunion scenario, whereas the Reds would be the veteran backstop’s fourth MLB club (and third in the past eight seasons). Both the Astros and Rangers are thin in terms of MLB catching depth. The Reds have Tucker Barnhart signed through 2021 (plus a 2022 option) and Curt Casali on hand as a backup, though there’s certainly room for an upgrade — particularly an offensive upgrade — in Cincinnati.
Nov. 19: The Mets have reached out to veteran catcher Robinson Chirinos in the early stages of the offseason, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. They’ve also been in contact with well-traveled backup catcher Drew Butera.
New York already has one well-paid catcher on the roster in Wilson Ramos, who is owed $10.75MM through the end of the 2020 season (including a $1.5MM buyout on a $10MM club option for the 2021 season). General manger Brodie Van Wagenen has previously indicated he’s in the market for a backup catcher, but Chirinos profiles as more as a starter than a reserve. The 35-year-old hit .238/.347/.443 with 17 homers, 22 doubles and a triple in 114 games (437 plate appearances) with the Astros in 2019 and logged 113 games with the Rangers in 2018.
Barring a move involving Ramos, it could be hard to entice the 35-year-old Chirinos to sign on for what would surely be reduced playing time, and he’ll likely command interest from other clubs looking to feature him in a larger role than the Mets can offer. Plus, if the Mets are interested in him as a backup — even one who plays a bit more than a traditional second catcher — it seems unlikely that they’d offer more than last year’s $5.75MM salary. New York’s interest isn’t necessarily a surprise, though, given Chirinos’ quality results in 2019 and, to a lesser extent, the fact that he and newly hired skipper Carlos Beltran were brief teammates with the Rangers in 2016.
Chirinos performed well on the whole in Houston and caught every single inning thrown by Justin Verlander in 2019, so there’s certainly reason for the Astros, who have minimal catching depth, to pursue a reunion. The Braves, Brewers, Reds, Angels, Pirates and Rockies are among the many teams that could look at adding some help behind the plate this winter, too, so there should be interest elsewhere.
As for Butera, he’s a candidate to receive a minor league deal and an invite to Spring Training either from the Mets or another club. The 36-year-old wouldn’t be a clear upgrade over currently projected backup Tomas Nido, as Butera has batted just .203/.268/.301 in 408 plate appearances between the Royals and Rockies dating back to the 2017 season. Butera doesn’t have a strong statistical profile in terms of his glovework, either, though he carries a reputation as a backup who works well with pitchers.
Rob Manfred Discusses Astros Investigation
Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the ongoing investigation of the Astros organization at this week’s owner’s meetings, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes. The league began looking into the Astros on the heels of a report from The Athletic wherein four former employees, including right-hander Mike Fiers, detailed a practice in which the Astros utilized center-field cameras to steal pitch signs and alert the hitter to what pitch was about to be thrown.
“I’m not going to speculate on whether other people are going to be involved,” Manfred told reporters today. “We’ll deal with that if it happens, but I’m not going to speculate about that. I have no reason to believe it extends beyond the Astros at this point in time.”
In the past, both the Cardinals and Braves have been sanctioned under Manfred. The Cards were hit with a $2MM fine and lost their two highest draft picks when former scouting director Chris Correa illegally accessed the Astros’ proprietary database. The Braves were barred from signing international players for multiple signing periods and stripped of 12 prospects they’d signed after extensive violations of the league’s international signing rules were discovered.
Manfred declined to speculate as to the potential punitive measures that would be levied against the Astros organization, instead stating that any discipline will be dependent on “how the facts are established at the end of the investigation.” The commissioner wouldn’t rule out a repeat of those prior sanctions — loss of draft picks and international free agency restrictions — but also was sure to specify that his authority allowed a “broader” range of potential disciplinary measures. There’s no active timeline for the investigation to wrap up.
“Any allegations that relate to a rule violation that could affect the outcome of a game or games is the most serious matter,” Manfred said Tuesday. “It relates to the integrity of the sport.”
Yuli Gurriel Won’t Opt Into Arbitration
3:26pm: Gurriel negotiated an additional $300K on top of the $8MM that was originally guaranteed, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter).
The new contract is structured as a straight one-year pact, although that doesn’t come with a lesser tax hit as one might think; a person familiar with the contract tells MLBTR that for luxury tax purposes, the termination of the original contract comes with a fee that amounts to an “upcharge” — the size of which covers the gap between his new $8.3MM salary and his previous $9.5MM luxury hit.
The new arrangement provides Gurriel with a slight boost in salary while avoiding any possibility of a contentious hearing that might’ve stemmed from opting into arbitration. The clause stipulating that Gurriel become a free agent at the end of the contract and his previous awards bonus package all carry over to the new deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter.
2:41pm: Yuli Gurriel‘s five-year, $47.5MM contract with the Astros affords him the opportunity to opt into MLB’s arbitration system once eligible. But he’ll forgo that right and play out the 2020 season on the original $8MM salary dictated by the contract, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
Although Gurriel will have only four-plus years of service time when his contract expires at the conclusion of the 2020 season — as opposed to the six years typically required to become a free agent — he’ll nevertheless head to the open market next winter. Gurriel’s contract stipulates that he be released by the Astros upon completion of the deal at the end of the 2020 season, thus allowing him an opportunity to once again test free agency.
One of the premier players in Cuba throughout the 2000s, Gurriel left his home country in early 2016 alongside his younger brother, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Both have since realized their dream of playing in the Majors. The elder Gurriel has remained a productive hitter into his mid-30s and, in 2019, turned in the best season of his career at the plate. In 612 plate appearances as Houston’s primary first baseman, he slashed .298/.343/.541 with 31 home runs, 40 doubles and a pair of triples.
Report: Houston Executive Kevin Goldstein Suggested Scouts Use Cameras To Steal Signs
SUNDAY: Kevin Goldstein sent the email in question, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Goldstein, a special assistant to Astros’ GM Jeff Lunhow, joined the organization as a pro scouting coordinator in 2012, following stints writing for Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Baseball America, among other outlets. Goldstein did not respond to Passan’s request for comment.
Interestingly, Passan’s sources characterize scouts’ responses to Goldstein’s email as “mixed.” While some were indeed upset about the potential reputational harm that could come with involving cameras in a sign-stealing operation, as Rosenthal and Drellich indicated yesterday, others were “intrigued” by the idea.
SATURDAY: Another entry has been logged in the ongoing saga surrounding allegations of improper sign stealing by the 2017 Astros. Earlier this week, we first heard accusations that the team used illegal technology–including a center field camera and a clubhouse tunnel television–to try to decode opponent signs. Several former Houston employees, including pitcher Mike Fiers, issued on-record comments regarding the team’s system of sign stealing, and league officials were said to be in the process of gathering “tangible evidence” in regard to the team’s alleged improprieties. Tonight’s follow-up report from Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic now indicates that the team’s use of camera technology may not have been limited to center field (link).
An Astros executive, per the report, emailed several club scouts in August 2017 with the suggestion that cameras be used to steal opponent signs. The club was interested in preparing its sign-stealing practices in advance of the 2017 postseason, and the email’s sender–who goes unnamed in the report–urged scouts to try multiple methods to get a better view into the opposition’s dugout.
“What we are looking for is how much we can see, how we would log things, if we need cameras/binoculars, etc.,” the sender wrote in an email message to Houston scouts. “So go to game, see what you can (or can’t) do and report back your findings.” This type of organizational messaging, which is said to have also extended to phone calls and chats within a group Slack channel, reportedly led to a “confounded feeling” among the club’s scouting group, with several scouts voicing their dismay to team management.
It’s important to note that, under MLB rules, the stealing of signs is understood to fall under the broad auspices of gamesmanship. It is mostly the alleged introduction of technology that could potentially lead to penalties against the club, as was the case when the Red Sox were caught using Apple Watch technology to steal signs in 2017. Even if Houston is proven to have used cameras, commissioner Rob Manfred will still have the latitude to decide whether or not the club’s actions truly represented a rule violation; central to that decision would, for instance, be the league’s findings as to whether the club used their videos after or during the game in question.
As noted previously, the Astros also faced scrutiny regarding sign-stealing during the 2018 playoffs. The Indians and Red Sox at that point identified a person connected to the Astros named Kyle McLaughlin allegedly taking pictures near opposing dugouts. An MLB investigation found no wrongdoing on Houston’s part in connection to that incident, but it remains to be seen what the league’s new investigation might yield, and what forms of penalty–financial, draft-related, or otherwise–the club might face if the league finds damning evidence of organizational malpractice.